Daily Market Analysis By zForex

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.29.2024​

Economic Uncertainty Drives Volatility in Precious Metals and Forex​

Recent market dynamics saw significant shifts in precious metals and major currencies. Gold climbed to nearly $2,660 per ounce amid geopolitical tensions, including Putin's nuclear warnings, though it faced weekly losses due to resilient US economic data and Fed speculation. However, silver dropped below $30 per ounce, pressured by easing geopolitical risks and weak industrial demand, particularly from China.

In the forex market, the euro hovered near two-year lows at $1.05 as inflation eased in key economies, while the yen surged 1% to a six-week high on Tokyo's inflation data. The pound approached $1.26 despite UK economic weakness, reflecting mixed investor sentiment.

Post automatically merged: Nov 29, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.29.2024​

Gold Gains on Geopolitical Tensions and Softer Dollar​

Gold rose to nearly $2,660 per ounce on Friday, gaining for the fourth straight session, supported by a softer US dollar and rising geopolitical tensions. Reports indicated that President Vladimir Putin warned of a potential new strike on Ukraine using a nuclear-capable ballistic missile, following Moscow's recent large-scale attack on critical energy infrastructure. However, the metal is set to decline by more than 2% for the week, as markets awaited further US data for additional insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. Earlier this week, core PCE prices in October met expectations, keeping investors anticipating another Fed rate cut in December. Yet, other data pointed to a resilient economy, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will adopt a cautious approach next year. Over the month, gold is set to decline for the first time since June.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 2665, and if broken, the next levels to watch will be 2675 and 2710. On the downside, 2630 is the first support level, and if it breaks, the levels to watch will be 2600 and 2575.

Post automatically merged: Nov 29, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.29.2024​

Pound Recovers Slightly Amid BoE Rate Cut Speculations​

The GBP/USD pair climbed to a two-week high of 1.2715 during Friday’s Asian session, gaining over 200 pips from its weekly low near 1.2500, driven by weak US Dollar demand. The USD Index (DXY) remains near a two-week low, with a 70% chance of a 25 bps Fed rate cut in December and falling US Treasury yields weighing on the dollar.

The British Pound has strengthened as BoE rate cut expectations ease following October’s higher UK inflation data, supporting the GBP/USD recovery.

However, upside may be limited by stalled US inflation progress in October, hawkish FOMC minutes hinting at a pause in Fed rate cuts, and geopolitical risks boosting the USD’s safe-haven appeal.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 1.2720, and if broken, the next levels to watch will be 1.2750 and 1.2800. On the downside, 1.2650 is the first support level, and if it breaks, the levels to watch will be 1.2600 and 1.2550.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.02.2024​

Global Markets Rally as Dollar Strengthens​

Global markets rose on Monday, driven by record highs on Wall Street and strong Chinese manufacturing data.

The dollar gained against the yen and pound by expectations of US rate cuts and Trump's comments on BRICS. Markets are focused on upcoming US economic data, including job openings and payrolls, which could influence Federal Reserve policy. The euro faced pressure due to political instability in France, while gold fell under a stronger dollar and oil prices rose. Geopolitical tensions and US Fed decisions continue to shape market sentiment. Investors remain cautious on economic and geopolitical risks.

Post automatically merged: Dec 2, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.02.2024​

Dollar Strengthens with Optimistic Economic Outlook​

The dollar started the week stronger against the euro. The EUR/USD pair fell to the 1.0520 level. The dollar index rose by 0.5% on Monday, climbing above 106.2 and recovering some of last week's losses. This increase was supported by the continued strength of the US economy and weakening prospects in other regions.

The dollar received additional support after Trump warned BRICS nations of 100% tariffs if they backed or introduced a new currency to rival the dollar. Meanwhile, the euro's decline, triggered by political instability in France, further bolstered the dollar. Leaders of the far-right National Rally party accused the government of rejecting their demands for additional budgetary concessions.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 1.0550, and if broken, the next levels to watch will be 1.0600 and 1.0660. On the downside, 1.0500 is the first support level, and if it breaks, the levels to watch will be 1.0450 and 1.0400.

Post automatically merged: Dec 2, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.02.2024​

Gold Declines Before Powell’s Speech​

Gold slipped below $2,630 per ounce on Monday, breaking a four-session winning streak, as the US dollar gained strength following President-elect Donald Trump's warning of 100% tariffs on BRICS nations. Investors are now focusing on upcoming US economic indicators for insights into the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decisions. Key releases include job openings, the ADP employment report, and the payrolls report.

Several Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, are set to speak this week. Recent data revealed a pause in the progress of reducing US inflation, indicating a slower pace for the Fed's rate-cut cycle. Markets currently see a 67% probability of a 25bps rate cut at the Fed’s upcoming meeting, with expectations for just two more rate cuts throughout 2025. Meanwhile, on the geopolitical front, a truce between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah appeared to hold, despite reports of ceasefire violations from both sides.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 2630, and if broken, the next levels to watch will be 2675 and 2710. On the downside, 2600 is the first support level, and if it breaks, the levels to watch will be 2575 and 2545.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.03.2024​

Global Markets Under Pressure: Currency and Commodity Trends​

Recent market movements highlight the impact of geopolitical tensions, central bank policies, and economic forecasts. Gold and silver prices dropped due to a stronger US dollar, tempered by President-elect Trump’s tariff threats on BRICS nations considering alternatives to the dollar.

The pound declined against the dollar amid concerns over trade barriers, though it strengthened against the euro due to political instability in France. Meanwhile, the yen hovered near 150 per dollar as the Bank of Japan hinted at rate hikes, and the euro fell sharply amid French political turmoil and speculation of further ECB rate cuts. Weak Eurozone growth, slowing inflation, and fears of US tariffs compounded its losses. Across markets, investors are closely watching central bank decisions, labor data, and political developments to gauge future trends.

Post automatically merged: Dec 4, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.03.2024​

EUR/USD Concerns Grow as Euro Suffers Worst Month in Over a Year​

The euro fell over 0.6% to $1.05 as political turmoil in France deepened concerns over the stability of the Eurozone. France’s far-right party threatened to topple Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s fragile government in a no-confidence vote, escalating a standoff over the national budget. Meanwhile, dovish comments from ECB official Martins Kazaks fueled speculation about further rate cuts, with markets increasingly factoring in a 50 basis point reduction in December, though a 25 basis point cut remains more likely. Weak Eurozone growth, slowing services inflation, and fears of US tariffs have added to the euro’s struggles, culminating in a 3% drop in November, its worst monthly performance in over a year. Parity with the dollar is becoming a growing concern among investors.

Technically, the 1.0500-1.0510 range will serve as the initial resistance, with 1.0570 and 1.0600 as the next levels to watch in case of a breakout. On the downside, 1.0450 will be the first support, followed by 1.0400 and 1.0330 as additional key levels.

Post automatically merged: Dec 4, 2024

Yen Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.03.2024​

BOJ Governor Signals Potential Rate Hikes as Data Aligns​

The Japanese yen edged toward 150 per dollar on Tuesday, weighed down by overall dollar strength, but remained close to its highest levels in seven weeks amid expectations that the Bank of Japan could soon raise interest rates again. Over the weekend, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that further rate hikes are "nearing" as economic data is aligning with expectations. He also highlighted the significance of momentum from fiscal 2025 wage negotiations. Markets are now pricing in a roughly 60% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in Japan this month, up from around 50% recently. Meanwhile, investors remain cautious about the dollar's strength, which has been bolstered by expectations of US economic outperformance and Trump’s tariff threats against other major economies.

Technically, the 151.00 level will serve as the initial resistance, with 152.00 and 153.00 as the next levels to watch in case of a breakout. On the downside, 149.40 will be the first support, followed by 148.70 and 148.20 as additional key levels.

Post automatically merged: Dec 4, 2024

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.04.2024​

Political Uncertainty and Central Bank Actions Shape Market Moves​

Global markets grapple with heightened political and economic risks, as the euro struggles with Eurozone instability.

The yen anticipates a possible BOJ rate hike, and gold and silver maintain momentum amid safe-haven demand. Central bank policies and upcoming data, including the Fed's Beige Book and non-farm payrolls, remain pivotal.

Post automatically merged: Dec 4, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.04.2024​

Investors Eye Fed Policy and Jobs Data as Gold Maintains Momentum​

Gold held above $2,640 per ounce on Wednesday as markets assessed the political and monetary outlook while awaiting key economic data. Strong US job openings highlighted labor market resilience, with attention now shifting to Friday's non-farm payrolls and upcoming Fed speeches for policy clues. Odds of a 25bps Fed rate cut stand at 73%, boosting gold by lowering the opportunity cost of holding it. The metal also found support from its safe-haven appeal amid political instability in South Korea and France, as well as ongoing Middle East and Russo-Ukrainian tensions.

Technically, the 2660 level will serve as the initial resistance, with 2680 and 2710 as the next levels to watch in case of a breakout. On the downside, 2600 will be the first support, followed by 2575 and 2545 as additional key levels.

Post automatically merged: Dec 4, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.04.2024​

Euro Struggles Amid Political and Economic Turmoil​

The euro edged up to $1.0510 amid political uncertainty in France, where Prime Minister Michel Barnier faces a no-confidence vote over a contentious budget proposal with tax hikes and spending cuts. Volatility hit its highest level since March 2023, driven by concerns over weak economic data, political unrest in the Eurozone, and a strong U.S. dollar. Markets expect a 25 basis point rate cut in December, though a 50 basis point reduction is gaining traction.

Technically, the first resistance level is seen at 1.0570. Above this, 1.0600 and 1.0660 could be the next key levels to watch. On the downside, the initial support is at 1.0450, with a break below this level potentially leading to further support at 1.0400 and 1.0330.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.05.2024​

Euro Holds at 1.0525 as Yen Strengthens​

Euro volatility surged with French political uncertainty, with EUR/USD holding near 1.0525, supported by PMI data despite dollar strength.

The Japanese Yen edged closer to 150 per dollar as expectations for a December rate hike grew, while dovish BoJ remarks tempered gains. Gold steadied above $2,640, benefiting from geopolitical tensions and a slowdown in the US services sector, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut. Meanwhile, GBP/USD hovered above 1.2700 ahead of key data releases, and silver held at $31.30, with traders eyeing US Initial Jobless Claims for further direction.

Post automatically merged: Dec 8, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.05.2024​

Euro Volatility Rises on French Uncertainty​

The EUR/USD exchange rate started the day trading around 1.0525. Despite the dollar strengthening throughout the week and the pair showing a negative trend, it managed to close the last two days in positive territory and remains in the green at the time of writing. After the French government’s collapse yesterday, the EUR/USD pair did not experience the expected weakness, indicating that the political event had already been priced in.

The PMI data released yesterday, which exceeded expectations, appears to have contributed to the pair’s relatively strong performance. Today, the U.S. unemployment data set to be released will be critical in determining the pair's direction.

From a technical perspective, 1.0570 is the key initial resistance level, with a break above it potentially targeting 1.0600 and 1.0660. On the downside, 1.0450 is the first major support, followed by 1.0400 and 1.0330 if the price moves lower.

Post automatically merged: Dec 8, 2024

Yen Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.05.2024​

Yen Strengthens with Rate Hike Promises​

The Japanese yen edged closer to 150 per dollar, recovering some of the losses from the previous session, despite dovish remarks from Bank of Japan board member Toyoaki Nakamura. Nakamura voiced concerns over the sustainability of wage growth and noted signs of economic weakness, hinting that he may oppose a rate hike in December. In contrast, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled over the weekend that further rate hikes are "nearing," with economic data continuing to meet expectations. He also highlighted the importance of momentum in the upcoming fiscal 2025 wage negotiations. Currently, markets are pricing in a 60% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in Japan this month, up from about 50% in recent weeks.

From a technical perspective, 151.00 appears to be the key initial resistance level, with a break above it potentially targeting 152.00 and 153.00. On the downside, 149.40 is the first major support, followed by 148.70 and 148.20 if the price moves lower.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.06.2024​

Precious Metals Steady as Markets Brace for US Labor Data​

Gold rose to $2,640, recovering from recent losses, as markets awaited US labor data for Fed policy signals. Weekly jobless claims increased, hinting at a cooling labor market ahead of the nonfarm payrolls report.

A 25bps rate cut in December is seen as 70% likely, supporting gold by lowering its holding cost. Meanwhile, China’s gold demand weakened for jewelry but remained strong for investment, though both may stabilize in 2024. Silver held above $31, buoyed by similar Fed rate cut bets and safe-haven demand due to global political turmoil. The euro and pound remain under pressure amid economic and political challenges.

Post automatically merged: Dec 9, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.06.2024​

Gold Climbs as Markets Eye US Labor Data and Fed Policy​

Gold rose to around $2,640 on Friday, recovering some losses as markets awaited key U.S. economic data to assess Fed policy direction. Initial jobless claims increased last week, signaling a gradual labor market slowdown, ahead of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due later Friday. Markets currently see a 70% chance of a 25bps Fed rate cut in December, which supports gold by reducing the cost of holding non-yielding assets. Meanwhile, the World Gold Council reported weaker physical gold demand in China but strong investment demand in 2024, with stabilization expected in 2025.

From a technical perspective, 2660 appears to be the key initial resistance level, with a break above it potentially targeting 2690 and 2710. On the downside, 2600 is the first major support, followed by 2575 and 2545 if the price moves lower.

Post automatically merged: Dec 9, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.06.2024​

UK Inflation Trends and Economic Weakness Shape BoE Policy Outlook​

The GBP/USD pair traded near the mid-1.2700s during Friday’s Asian session, consolidating gains after reaching a three-week high. Traders are cautious ahead of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, expected to guide the Federal Reserve’s December rate decision and influence the U.S. Dollar (USD). While lower U.S. Treasury yields have limited USD recovery, expectations of cautious Fed rate cuts and inflationary policies under President-elect Trump offer some dollar support. Weaker risk sentiment and geopolitical tensions also benefit the USD. Meanwhile, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s comments on potential 2025 rate cuts are tempering bullish sentiment for the British Pound (GBP).

From a technical perspective, 1.2760 appears to be the key initial resistance level, with a break above it potentially targeting 1.2830 and 1.2900. On the downside, 1.2610 is the first major support, followed by 1.2540 and 1.2470 if the price moves lower.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.09.2024​

Euro Steadies as Political Calm and CB Outlook Shape Market Sentiment​

The euro remained steady near $1.06 following renewed confidence in French political stability and clearer indications of policy easing from the European Central Bank. President Macron’s initiative to appoint a new prime minister and secure the 2025 budget calmed investor nerves, while markets anticipate a 25 bps ECB rate cut next week, bringing the total expected easing through mid-2025 to 125 bps. Meanwhile, strong US jobs data increased bets on a December Fed cut, underscoring resilient economic conditions and global monetary policy shifts that keep the currency markets on edge.

Post automatically merged: Dec 9, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.09.2024​

Euro Steady Near $1.06 Amid France's Political Stabilization and ECB Outlook​

The euro hovered near $1.0530, ending the week flat amid France's political turmoil and upcoming ECB decisions. President Macron’s plan to appoint a new prime minister to secure the 2025 budget calmed market fears, sparking a brief rally on Thursday. The ECB is set to cut rates by 25 basis points next week, its fourth reduction this year, aiming for a neutral policy rate near 2%. President Lagarde emphasized a cautious approach to support recovery while addressing risks. Markets anticipate 125 basis points of ECB easing through mid-2025, contrasting with the Fed’s expected smaller cuts. In the US, bets on a December Fed cut rose as strong jobs data highlighted economic resilience.

Technically, the firs resistance level will be 1.0600 level. In case of this level’s breach, next levels to watch would be 1.0660 and 1.0720 consequently. On the downside 1.0525 will be the first support level. 1.0500 and 1.0450 are next levels to monitor if first support level is breached.

Post automatically merged: Dec 9, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.09.2024​

Gold Surges Above $2,640 Amid Geopolitical Unrest and Renewed Demand​

Gold climbed above $2,640 per ounce on Monday, bolstered by safe-haven demand amid Middle East tensions and China's resumed gold purchases. Syrian rebel forces ousted President Assad on Sunday, ending his 50-year rule and raising concerns about regional instability. China's central bank added gold to its reserves in November after a six-month pause, further supporting prices. Meanwhile, the U.S. jobs report showed a gradual labor market slowdown, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut. Markets now see an 83% chance of a 25bps cut at the Fed's December meeting, enhancing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset.

Technically, the firs resistance level will be 2660 level. In case of this level’s breach, next levels to watch would be 2690 and 2710 consequently. On the downside 2600 will be the first support level. 2575 and 2545 are next levels to monitor if first support level is breached.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.10.2024​

Central Banks and Geopolitical Strains Steer Market Sentiment​

The euro hovered near $1.05 as traders braced for another ECB rate cut and grappled with Eurozone uncertainties, including political unrest and subdued economic indicators. Meanwhile, the yen remained steady as the BOJ weighed possible interest rate hikes, and gold gained ground amid Chinese policy shifts and tensions in the Middle East.

The pound inched higher, anticipating steady BoE policy and upcoming UK data, while silver approached a one-month high, bolstered by expectations of a Fed rate cut and potential Chinese stimulus measures. Investors now turn their attention to this week’s inflation figures and central bank updates for clearer market direction.

Post automatically merged: Dec 11, 2024

Yen Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.10.2024​

Yen Holds Range as Markets Eye BOJ's Next Move​

The Japanese yen traded near 151.50 per dollar on Tuesday, staying within its recent range as investors evaluated Japan's revised GDP data. Q3 growth was revised to 0.3% QoQ, exceeding initial estimates and forecasts of 0.2%. Along with strong wage data, this has fueled expectations for a more hawkish BOJ stance. However, opinions are divided on whether the next rate hike will come in December or January. BOJ Governor Ueda signaled a hike is imminent, while board member Nakamura expressed concerns over wage growth sustainability and economic vulnerabilities.

From a technical perspective, 151.70 appears to be the key initial resistance level, with a break above it potentially targeting 152.75 and 153.65. On the downside, 150.50 is the first major support, followed by 149.40 and 148.70 if the price moves lower.

Post automatically merged: Dec 11, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.10.2024​

Gold Gains Amid China Policy Shifts and Geopolitical Instability​

Gold climbed above $2,660 per ounce on Tuesday, marking its second consecutive session of gains, supported by China’s policy shifts and Middle East tensions. China's Politburo pledged its first monetary policy easing in 14 years to spur growth, lifting commodity markets. Additionally, China's central bank increased gold reserves for the first time in seven months, increasing demand. Geopolitical instability in the Middle East, particularly the collapse of the Syrian government, further supported gold as investors turned to safe-haven assets. Attention now shifts to upcoming U.S. inflation data later this week, which could impact the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance

Technically, the firs resistance level will be 2675 level. In case of this level’s breach, next levels to watch would be 2690 and 2710 consequently. On the downside 2630 will be the first support level. 2600 and 2575 are next levels to monitor if first support level is breached.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.11.2024​

Precious Metals Rise on Fed and China Bets​

The US dollar maintained its strength as investors awaited the US inflation report that could influence Federal Reserve policy.
The euro rose slightly, but concerns about the Eurozone economy and geopolitical tensions persisted. The Japanese yen edged up but remained near a two-week low. Gold prices surged on expectations of loose monetary policies and safe-haven demand. Silver prices climbed on Chinese stimulus hopes and potential Fed rate cuts. The British pound strengthened before key economic data and central bank meetings.

Post automatically merged: Dec 11, 2024

Dollar Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.11.2024​

Dollar Maintains Strength Ahead of CPI Data​

The euro rose above $1.05 as investors turned their attention to the European Central Bank's (ECB) upcoming monetary policy decision. The Eurozone economy continues to show signs of weakness, further impacted by political instability in France and Germany, alongside growing geopolitical concerns following Donald Trump's election.

ECB President Christine Lagarde's warning during a parliamentary session about a potential slowdown in Eurozone growth in the near future has added to the cautious mood, with a focus on the downside risks in the medium-term outlook. Meanwhile, the dollar index held steady at around 106.3 on Wednesday after three days of gains, as traders awaited a critical US inflation report that could influence Federal Reserve policy. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading might delay the Fed's plans to lower borrowing costs, potentially providing support for the dollar. Despite this, markets are currently pricing in an 86% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed later this month, although the outlook for 2025 remains highly uncertain.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 1.0600 level. In case of this level's breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.0660 and 1.0720. On the downside, 1.0500 will be the first support level. 1.0450 and 1.0400 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

Post automatically merged: Dec 11, 2024

Pound Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.11.2024​

Pound Surges Before Central Bank Meetings​

The British pound rose to $1.28, approaching a four-week high before important economic data and central bank meetings. UK data, set to be released next Friday, is expected to show an economic rebound and a recovery in manufacturing for October. The Bank of England is mostly expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting on December 19. In the US, markets are preparing for inflation data and have largely factored in a 0.25% rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week. Investors are also focused on the European Central Bank's meeting on Thursday, where a similar 0.25% rate cut is expected, bringing the ECB's deposit rate down to 3%.

The first resistance level for the pair will be 1.2815. In case of this level's breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.2960 and 1.3060. On the downside 1.2720 will be the first support level. 1.2615 and 1.2550 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.12.2024​

Gold Stalls on Inflation Data​

Gold paused after a three-day rally as investors analyzed US inflation data, which showed headline inflation rose as expected and core inflation remained steady.

Concerns about persistent inflation next year remained, while major central banks, including the Bank of Canada, are expected to continue easing policies. The People's Bank of China resumed gold purchases after a six-month hiatus, signaling a more accommodative monetary policy. The EUR/USD pair rose, and the dollar index stayed steady, supported by a dovish Eurozone outlook and weakness in the euro and yuan.

Post automatically merged: Dec 13, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.12.2024​

Dollar Maintains Strength with Inflation Report​

The EUR/USD pair started Thursday with an increase and reached the 1.05 level again. The dollar index remained around 106.5 on Thursday after rising for four consecutive days, despite the latest US consumer inflation data strengthening expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week.

The CPI report revealed that the headline and core inflation rates in November met forecasts, clearing the path for the Fed to continue with rate cuts. Markets are now pricing in nearly a 100% chance that the Fed will implement another 25 basis point reduction next week. Producer inflation data is also going to be revealed on Thursday for additional insight. Meanwhile, the dollar gained support from recent weakness in the euro and yuan, driven by a dovish monetary policy outlook in the Eurozone.

For the pair, the first resistance level will be 1.0600. In the case of a breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.0660 and 1.0720. On the downside, 1.0500 will be the first support level. 1.0450 and 1.0400 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

Post automatically merged: Dec 13, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.12.2024​

Gold Pulls Back After Three-Day Rally​

Gold dipped to $2,700 per ounce, pausing after a three-day rally as investors continued to analyze the latest US inflation data. The November report showed that headline inflation rose as expected, while core inflation remained steady. This led traders to increase their expectations for another Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week, with Fed funds futures suggesting a 98% probability of a 25 basis point reduction. Such a move typically supports gold by lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. However, concerns about ongoing inflation in the coming year persisted as other key inflation indicators remained high.

Major central banks also supported gold, including the Bank of Canada, with expectations that the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank will continue their easing policies. Additionally, the People's Bank of China resumed gold purchases after a six-month hiatus and committed to a more accommodative monetary policy next year.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 2725, followed by 2750 and 2790. On the downside, 2700 will be the first support level. 2660 and 2630 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.13.2024​

Global Markets Adjust to Fresh CB Cuts Among Geopolitical Risks​

Markets navigated a challenging environment as the euro slipped near a two-year low following another ECB rate cut and hints of further easing.

The yen weakened amid delayed BOJ hikes, while gold remained steady ahead of a possible Fed rate cut next week. The pound fluctuated under a strong dollar and uncertain economic prospects, and silver lost ground amid concerns about Chinese demand and global tariff tensions. Investors now await key economic data and central bank guidance to clarify the path ahead.

Post automatically merged: Dec 13, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.13.2024​

Pound Increases Before December Cuts​

The GBP/USD dropped to 1.2660 on Friday morning, while the dollar index rose above 107, putting it on track for a 1% weekly gain, its best performance in a month. This rise follows markets factoring in a 25-basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, although the outlook for 2025 remains uncertain. Data released Thursday showed the headline producer price index increased more than expectations, while the core index grew at the anticipated rate. Additionally, initial jobless claims unexpectedly surged to a nearly two-month high of 242K, significantly exceeding the expected 220K. Markets are currently pricing in a 96% probability of a quarter-point rate cut by the Fed at next week's meeting.

The first resistance level for the pair will be 1.2720. In case of this level's breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.2770 and 1.2810. On the downside 1.2610 will be the first support level. 1.2550 and 1.2500 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

Post automatically merged: Dec 13, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.13.2024​

Gold Prices Stabilize as Markets Eye Fed’s Next Move​

Gold climbed above $2,680 on Friday, rebounding from a 1% drop in the previous session, as investors analyzed recent economic data. US factory gate prices rose surprisingly in November, raising concerns about persistently high inflation, while initial jobless claims surged to a nearly two-month high, pointing to a softening labor market. Markets largely expect a 25bps Fed rate hike next week, with projections for cuts next year, though uncertainty lingers about their extent. Meanwhile, dovish moves by other central banks, including rate cuts from the SNB (50bps), ECB (25bps), and BoC (50bps), alongside the BoJ's pause on hikes, had minimal impact on gold. The metal is on track for its first weekly gain in three.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 2700 level. In case of this level’s breach, next levels to watch would be 2725 and 2750 consequently. On the downside 2660 will be the first support level. 2630 and 2600 are next levels to monitor if first support level is breached.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.16.2024​

Gold Appeal Rises, Growth May Slow in 2025​

The Federal Reserve is expected to implement another 25bps rate cut at its final meeting of the year.

This would increase gold's attractiveness by lowering the cost of holding assets that do not yield interest. In addition, the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, especially Israel's recent air and ground strikes in Gaza, have strengthened gold's value. The World Gold Council has forecasted slower growth for gold in the coming year, pointing to factors such as central bank policies, geopolitical pressures, and economic conditions in major markets like the U.S., China, and India.

Post automatically merged: Dec 16, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.16.2024​

Euro Steadies Before Fed Decision​

The euro held steady at 1.05 as the week began. The dollar index fell to around 106.8 but stayed near its highest level in three weeks as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, but market attention will be focused on the updated policy statement and forward guidance from Fed Chair Powell.

Speculation is rising that the Fed may signal a more gradual approach to easing in 2025. At present, traders see a 93% chance of a quarter-point rate cut this week, though they now expect the Fed to refrain from reducing rates in January. Meanwhile, worries about potential inflationary pressures under the incoming Trump administration have kept market sentiment tense.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 1.0540. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.0600 and 1.0660. On the downside 1.0450 will be the first support level. 1.0400 and 1.0330 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

Post automatically merged: Dec 16, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.16.2024​

Gold Moves Up, Focus Shifts to Fed Meeting​

Gold traded above $2,650 per ounce on Monday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision later this week, particularly its outlook on monetary policy for 2025. The Fed is widely anticipated to implement another 25bps rate cut in its final meeting of the year, which could boost gold’s attractiveness by lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East, especially following Israel’s air and ground attacks in Gaza, has further supported gold’s reliability. At the same time, the World Gold Council has forecasted slower growth for gold next year, citing factors such as central bank actions, geopolitical tensions, and economic conditions in major markets like the U.S., China, and India.

The first resistance level will be 2665. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 2700 and 2725. On the downside, 2630 will be the first support level, with 2600 and 2565 being the next levels to observe if the first support level is breached.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.17.2024​

Markets Grapple with Central Bank Policy, Geopolitical Risks, and Mixed Data​

Global markets faced a complex blend of central bank signals, political uncertainties, and mixed economic indicators on Tuesday.
The euro steadied near $1.05 amid weaker data, ECB rate cut expectations, and ongoing political instability in core Eurozone economies. The yen hovered near recent lows as the BOJ’s timeline for rate hikes remained unclear. Gold found support from geopolitical tensions and China’s policy shifts, while the pound edged up ahead of UK economic releases. Meanwhile, silver struggled under cautious sentiment tied to Fed policy and China’s slowdown. Investors now await key U.S. inflation data, upcoming central bank decisions, and potential policy shifts to gauge the next market moves.

Post automatically merged: Dec 17, 2024

Yen Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.17.2024​

Japanese Yen Reaches Lowest Point in Three Weeks​

The Japanese yen hovered around 154 per dollar on Tuesday, near a three-week low, as markets awaited the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25bps on Wednesday but may signal fewer cuts for 2025. Domestically, Japan’s economy minister reaffirmed cooperation between the government and the BOJ on monetary policy. Speculation suggests the BOJ may delay a rate hike on Thursday, citing little cost in waiting for clearer signs of wage growth before tightening further.

The key resistance level appears to be 154.20, with a break above it potentially targeting 154.80 and 155.40. On the downside, 152.70 is the first major support, followed by 151.70 and 150.90 if the price moves lower.

Post automatically merged: Dec 17, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.17.2024​

Safe-Haven Demand Drives Gold to Record Annual Gains​

Gold stabilized around $2,650 per ounce on Tuesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's meeting and its 2025 outlook. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25bps, but uncertainty lingers over future easing, especially amid potential inflation risks under the incoming Trump administration

US data showed stronger private sector growth in December, raising concerns the Fed may limit rate cuts next year, which could weigh on gold. Still, bullion is up 29% this year, its best annual performance since 2010, driven by policy easing, safe-haven demand, and continued central bank purchases.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 2665 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 2700 and 2725 consequently. On the downside 2630 will be the first support level. 2600 and 2565 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.18.2024​

Gold Trades Around $2,650 Before Fed Cut​

Markets remained cautious as the Fed prepared for a widely expected 25bps rate cut.

EUR/USD steadied near 1.05, while the yen weakened to 153.7 on speculation of limited policy changes by the Bank of Japan. Gold held at $2,650, eyeing a 28% annual gain, and silver traded below $30.5 due to weak Chinese demand. The British pound rose above $1.27 following strong wage growth, while US retail sales outperformed, adding to speculation about the Fed’s future policy path.

Post automatically merged: Dec 18, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.18.2024​

Eurozone Reveals Mixed PMI Data​

The EUR/USD pair is holding steady near 1.05 while the dollar index remained unchanged at about 106.9 on Wednesday as caution prevailed ahead of the Federal Reserve’s expected interest rate cut later in the day. Markets are pricing in a 97% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction, with traders focusing on the updated economic projections and Fed Chair Powell’s remarks after the meeting.

Speculation is growing that the Fed may signal fewer rate cuts for 2025 than previously anticipated, with some expecting a pause as early as January. On the economic front, US retail sales surpassed expectations in November, bolstered by strong consumer spending, while industrial production unexpectedly declined for the third straight month. Meanwhile, investors are also preparing for upcoming monetary policy decisions from the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan this week.

The first resistance level will be 1.0540 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.0600 and 1.0660. On the downside 1.0450 will be the first support level. 1.0400 and 1.0330 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

Post automatically merged: Dec 18, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.18.2024​

Gold Steadies Near $2,650 Ahead of Fed Decision​

Gold held near $2,650 per ounce, staying within a tight trading range ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement later today. While the Fed is widely expected to deliver a 25bps rate cut, traders are focused on clues for next year’s interest rate outlook, amid uncertainty over how the incoming Trump administration’s policies might influence the rate trajectory.

US retail sales exceeded expectations with a 0.7% increase in November, fueling speculation that the Fed might slow down its policy easing. Still, the precious metal has climbed over 28% this year, positioning it for its largest annual gain since 2010, driven by US monetary easing, safe-haven demand, and sustained central bank purchases. Elsewhere, Indian gold imports surged to a record in November following a customs levy cut, with full-year demand from the key consumer expected to rise 7% in 2024, the second-highest since 2015.

The initial resistance is set at the 2665 level. If this level is surpassed, the subsequent levels to observe are 2700 and 2725, respectively. On the downside, the primary support level is 2630. Should this level be broken, the next support levels to keep an eye on are 2600 and 2565.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.19.2024​

Monetary Policy Divergence Fuels Market Volatility​

Recently, divergences in monetary policies among major central banks and economic uncertainties have caused volatility in financial markets. The Fed's signal of limited rate cuts strengthened the dollar, putting pressure on other G10 currencies and commodities.

Currencies like the euro, yen, and pound weakened, while gold rose on a technical rebound despite earlier losses. Silver continued its downward trend due to weaker industrial demand, exacerbated by China's overcapacity and monetary easing policies. In Europe and the UK, high inflation and slowing growth challenge central banks, while strong US growth and safe-haven demand strengthen gold.

Post automatically merged: Dec 20, 2024

Yen Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.19.2024​

Yen Hits One-Month Low as BOJ Holds Rates Steady​

The Japanese yen fell past 155 per dollar on Thursday, reaching a one-month low after the Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged at 0.25%, as widely expected. Now the focus is on BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s post-meeting press conference for insights into the timing of future rate hikes. Prior to the decision, speculation had been growing that the BOJ might hold off on tightening its policy, with policymakers opting to take more time to assess the economic data. Additionally, the yen faced pressure from a strengthening US dollar, after the US Federal Reserve delivered a widely anticipated 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday but signaled fewer rate reductions in 2025. The Fed now projects only two rate cuts next year, down from the four reductions forecast in September.

The key resistance level appears to be 156.75, with a break above it potentially targeting 158.30 and 160.00. On the downside, 153.90 is the first major support, followed by 152.70 and 151.00 if the price moves lower.

Post automatically merged: Dec 20, 2024

Pound Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.19.2024​

Pound Hits One-Month Low Amid Fed’s Hawkish Signals​

The British pound fell to $1.26, testing its lowest in nearly one month and tracking the pressure in other G10 currencies as hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve triggered a sharp rise for the US dollar. The Fed lowered its funds rate by 25bps, as expected, but projected only two rate cuts next year to underscore growing inflation concerns by FOMC members. In turn, the Bank of England is expected to hold its Bank Rate unchanged and continue heeding elevated inflation domestically. The annual inflation rate in the UK rose for a second month to 2.6% in November as expected. The services inflation steadied at 5%, below forecasts of 5.1% but above the BoE's estimate of 4.9%. Early in the week, UK wage growth surpassed expectations.

The first resistance level for the pair will be 1.2600. In case of this level's breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.2645 and 1.2700. On the downside 1.2550 will be the first support level. 1.2500 and 1.2460 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.20.2024​

Gold Struggles with Hawkish Fed and Weak Indian Demand​

The dollar index steadied around 108.4 on Friday, its highest since November 2022, as investors awaited the PCE price index.

Fed Chair Powell noted inflation likely remains above the 2% target following the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut, with fewer cuts expected in 2025. Japan's inflation rose to 2.9% in November, its highest since October 2023, while China's central bank held key lending rates steady for the second month, with the one-year LPR at 3.1%.

Post automatically merged: Dec 20, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.20.2024​

EUR/USD Edges Lower to 1.0360​

The EUR/USD pair shows a slight downward trend around 1.0360 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. The pair continues to face pressure as the US Federal Reserve took a less dovish approach, even after reducing interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting on Wednesday. Attention will now turn to the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, set to be released later on Friday.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 1.0400 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.0460 and 1.0520. On the downside, 1.0335 will be the first support level. 1.0230 and 1.0200 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

Post automatically merged: Dec 20, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.20.2024​

Gold's Rally Pauses as Fed Signals Slower Easing​

Gold hovered around $2,600 per ounce on Friday, poised for a weekly decline as a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve weighed on prices. On Wednesday, the Fed indicated a more cautious approach to monetary easing, with its dot plot suggesting only two rate cuts in the coming year. Strong US GDP figures with an upward revision in consumer spending, further reinforced the case for slower easing. This outlook has dampened demand for gold, as limited monetary easing reduces the appeal of non-yielding assets like bullion.

Gold's short-term prospects face headwinds from weakening physical demand in India, where officials expect a substantial drop in gold imports for December. Despite these pressures, gold has gained approximately 25% this year, supported by US monetary easing and robust central bank purchases.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 2625. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 2635 and 2660. On the downside, 2575 will be the first support level. 2530 and 2500 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.23.2024​

Markets Navigate Policy Shifts, Soft Economic Data, and Rising Tensions​

The euro dipped to its lowest level in nearly a year amid political challenges in major Eurozone economies and softer data, even as the ECB signaled cautious policy.

The yen fell on wavering expectations for a BOJ rate hike, while gold stabilized after a modest U.S. inflation print tempered the dollar’s rally. The British pound traded narrowly on lingering dovish BoE signals, and silver hit three-month lows, pressured by a hawkish Fed outlook and weaker Chinese demand. Investors now watch key data and central bank policy moves to gauge market direction.

Post automatically merged: Dec 23, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.23.2024​

Gold Holds as Weak Dollar Offsets India’s Declining Demand​

Gold held around $2,620 per ounce on Monday, supported by a weaker US dollar after modest PCE inflation data renewed expectations for Fed easing next year. Earlier, the Fed’s cautious rate cut signals briefly pushed gold to a one-month low. Short-term pressures remain from declining physical demand in India, where officials forecast a significant drop in December imports. Despite challenges, gold is up over 27% this year, its best annual performance since 2010, driven by US policy easing, safe-haven demand, and central bank purchases.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 2635 level. In case of this level’s breach, next levels to watch would be 2670and 2710 consequently. On the downside 2605 will be the first support level. 2575 and 2545 are next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

Post automatically merged: Dec 23, 2024

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GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.23.2024​

GBP/USD Trades Narrowly as BoE Dovishness and Fed Policy Weigh​

The GBP/USD pair traded within a narrow range above the mid-1.2500s during the Asian session, showing little momentum after Friday's rebound from a 1.2475 low, the weakest since May. The Fed's 25bps rate cut last week, paired with signals of slower rate cuts in 2025, kept US Treasury yields high and supported USD dip-buying, limiting GBP/USD gains. Geopolitical risks and the Bank of England’s dovish stance, including rate hold decisions and a downgraded Q4 economic outlook, added further pressure on the British Pound. Traders await the BoE's Quarterly Bulletin and US Consumer Confidence Index for further direction.

The first resistance level for the pair will be 1.2600. In case of this level's breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.2680 and 1.2750. On the downside 1.2475 will be the first support level. 1.2400 and 1.2350 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.24.2024​

Divergent CB Paths, Euro Near Two-Year Low, and Precious Metals in Focus​

The euro fell below $1.04, nearing a two-year low, as diverging central bank policies weighed on the currency. The ECB’s cautious stance contrasts with the Fed’s limited rate cut projections, strengthening the dollar.

Gold climbed to $2,610 per ounce, marking a 27% annual gain driven by central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and easing monetary policies. The British pound weakened to $1.256, pressured by a dovish BoE and weak UK economic data. Meanwhile, silver rebounded to $29.5, supported by lower bond yields but lagging behind gold due to industrial demand uncertainty and China’s overcapacity in solar production.

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GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.24.2024​

British Pound Dips Amid BoE Rate Policy and Economic Struggles​

The GBP/USD pair is trading within a range just below the mid-1.2500s during Tuesday's Asian session, staying close to its lowest level since May, which was reached last week. Both the fundamental factors and technical indicators suggest that the path of least resistance for the pair is likely to be downward. The US Dollar (USD) remains strong near a two-year high, bolstered by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish signal to slow the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025. In contrast, the British Pound (GBP) is pressured by the Bank of England's (BoE) decision to keep interest rates unchanged, accompanied by a dovish outlook. This reinforces the bearish near-term view for the GBP/USD pair.

The first resistance level for the pair will be 1.2600. In case of this level's breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.2680 and 1.2750. On the downside 1.2475 will be the first support level. 1.2400 and 1.2350 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

Post automatically merged: Dec 25, 2024

Silver Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.24.2024​

Silver Rebounds Amid Fed Policy Adjustments and Industrial Concerns​

Silver rose above $29.5 per ounce, recovering from the three-month low of $29 on December 19th, as markets reassessed the Fed's hawkishness for next year. Softer November core PCE prices eased fears of overly restrictive rates, lowering bond yields and boosting precious metals. However, silver continued to underperform gold due to its uncertain outlook on industrial demand. Overcapacity in China’s solar panel sector led to a government-led supply regulation program, dimming silver demand. Additional pressure came from the risk of a yuan devaluation tied to China’s loose monetary policies, reducing export prices from the world’s largest silver exporter.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 29.85 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 30.20 and 30.70 consequently. On the downside 28.75 will be the first support level. 28.00 and 27.00 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.26.2024​

Diverging Policies Shape Markets: Precious Metals Shine, Euro Falters​

Diverging central bank policies defined market movements in 2024, with the euro nearing a two-year low below $1.04, pressured by the ECB’s cautious stance and the dollar’s strength.

Gold surged to $2,610 per ounce, recording a 27% annual gain fueled by central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and easing monetary policies. The British pound weakened to $1.256 amid dovish BoE signals and stagnant UK economic growth. At the same time, silver recovered to $29.5, supported by lower bond yields but weighed down by weak industrial demand and China’s solar sector overcapacity.

Post automatically merged: Dec 26, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.26.2024​

Euro Consolidates as Lagarde Warns of Persistent Inflation Risks​

EUR/USD remained range-bound during Tuesday's North American session, tracking the US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY) fluctuated narrowly above 108.00 amid low trading volume ahead of the holidays, with Forex markets closed for Christmas and Boxing Day on Wednesday and Thursday.

EUR/USD consolidated near 1.0400 on Thursday, maintaining a bearish outlook. The Euro (EUR) dipped slightly after ECB President Christine Lagarde told the Financial Times that inflation is "very close" to the 2% medium-term target but warned about persistent service sector inflation at 3.9%, despite overall Eurozone inflation easing to 2.2%

Lagarde also expressed concerns over potential trade tensions under US President-elect Donald Trump, cautioning against retaliatory tariffs, which she said harm the global economy.

Market expectations remain dovish for ECB policy in 2025, with traders anticipating four consecutive 25 basis point cuts to the Deposit Facility rate as inflation is expected to align with the ECB’s 2% target.

From a technical perspective, the first resistance level is at 1.0465, with further resistance levels at 1.0515 and 1.0575 if the price breaks above. On the downside, the initial support is at 1.0330, followed by additional support levels at 1.0300 and 1.0230.

Post automatically merged: Dec 26, 2024

Gold Surges 27% in 2024, Its Best Performance Since 2010​

Gold traded above $2,620 per ounce on Thursday, with thin trading due to the holidays. Investors focused on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook and expected tariff policies under the incoming Trump administration, which may influence gold’s direction next year. While the Fed signaled fewer rate cuts for 2025, softer PCE inflation data raised hopes for more easing, increasing gold's appeal. Geopolitically, Hamas and Israel blamed each other on Wednesday for failing to secure a ceasefire, despite recent progress. Gold is set to end the year up 27%, its best performance since 2010, driven by central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and monetary easing.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 2635 level. In case of this level’s breach, next levels to watch would be 2670and 2710 consequently. On the downside 2605 will be the first support level. 2575 and 2545 are next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.27.2024​

Global Markets Weigh Euro Weakness, Yen Outlook, and Fed’s 2025 Plans​

Global markets saw the euro slip toward a two-year low as the ECB signaled further easing.
The yen attempted to regain ground amid speculation of a delayed BoJ rate hike, while gold found support above $2,600 per ounce on safe-haven demand. Silver extended gains but faced headwinds from a stronger dollar. Investors now look to upcoming economic data and central bank signals to clarify future policy directions and market trends.

Post automatically merged: Dec 27, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.27.2024​

Euro Pressured as ECB Signals More Rate Cuts in 2025​

The EUR/USD pair slipped to 1.0415 during Friday's Asian session amid subdued holiday trading. Later, November's US Goods Trade Balance data is expected.

Initial Jobless Claims fell to 219,000, the lowest in a month, beating expectations of 224,000. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose slightly to 108.10, staying below its two-year high as the Fed signaled a slower pace of rate cuts for 2025.

In the Eurozone, ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic suggested further rate cuts are likely if data aligns with projections. The ECB has cut rates four times this year to 3.0%, with analysts expecting reductions to 2.0% by June, which could pressure the Euro.

From a technical perspective, the first resistance level is at 1.0465, with further resistance levels at 1.0515 and 1.0575 if the price breaks above. On the downside, the initial support is at 1.0330, followed by additional support levels at 1.0300 and 1.0230.

Post automatically merged: Dec 27, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.27.2024​

Gold on Track for Best Year Since 2010 Despite Recent Dip​

Gold slipped below $2,630 per ounce on Friday, easing from the prior session's gains in light holiday trading.

Investors awaited clarity on US economic policies under the incoming Trump administration while assessing the Federal Reserve's monetary outlook. Softer US PCE inflation data increased the likelihood of more Fed rate cuts next year, which could strengthen non-yielding gold.

Gold's safe-haven appeal remained strong, supported by geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East tensions. The metal was on track for a 27% annual gain, its best performance since 2010, driven by central bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty, and global monetary easing.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 2635 level. In case of this level’s breach, next levels to watch would be 2670and 2710 consequently. On the downside 2605 will be the first support level. 2575 and 2545 are next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.30.2024​

Dollar Holds Gains into Year-End with Euro Being Near Lows and Metals Steady​

Global markets opened the week with the euro hovering near two-year lows as diverging central bank policies and soft Eurozone data pressured the currency.

The yen, weakened by uncertain BOJ rate plans, is on watch for possible intervention. Meanwhile, the dollar remains firm on rising U.S. yields and expectations around President-elect Trump’s policies. Gold hovers above $2,600 on ongoing geopolitical worries and a softer U.S. dollar, while silver stays flat as traders monitor upcoming economic reports from China and the U.S. The British pound is steady around 1.2580, facing external pressure from the stronger dollar and subdued UK growth projections.

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EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.30.2024​

Dollar Steady on Rising Yields and Trump Policy Expectations​

The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.0425, while the U.S. dollar index held steady near the 108 mark on Monday, supported by rising U.S. yields in light of thin year-end trading. Earlier this month, the dollar reached its highest level in over two years after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates but indicated a slower pace of monetary easing in the year ahead. The dollar’s strength comes from expectations around President-elect Donald Trump’s policies. These include deregulation, tax cuts, higher tariffs, and stricter immigration. Together, they are expected to increase growth and inflation, and keep Treasury yields high.

From a technical perspective, the first resistance level is at 1.0465, with further resistance levels at 1.0515 and 1.0575 if the price breaks above. On the downside, the initial support is at 1.0330, followed by additional support levels at 1.0300 and 1.0230.

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Yen Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.30.2024​

Finance Minister Signals Intervention as Yen Faces External Pressures​

The Japanese yen held steady around 157.8 per dollar on Monday, near a five-month low, as investors assessed the Bank of Japan's rate policy. Minutes from the BOJ’s December meeting suggested discussions of a potential rate hike, though rates remained at 0.25%. Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized the need for more data on wage growth and clarity on U.S. economic policies. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato expressed concerns about the weakening yen, signaling readiness for intervention against sharp currency fluctuations. Rising U.S. Treasury yields added external pressure, despite the Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts.

The key resistance level appears to be 158.30, with a break above it potentially targeting 160.00 and 161.00. On the downside, 153.90 is the first major support, followed by 152.70 and 151.00 if the price moves lower.