Daily Market Analysis By zForex

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.04.2024​

Markets Await the U.S. Elections Amid China’s Stimulus Actions​

The dollar index retreated on Monday as investors braced for the U.S. presidential election and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.

The yen strengthened due to dollar weakness and the BOJ's hint at a future rate hike. Gold remained stable amid U.S. political uncertainty and safe-haven demand. The British pound stabilized after a recent decline, while silver prices rose on China's potential stimulus measures and a weaker dollar.

Post automatically merged: Nov 4, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.04.2024​

Dollar Retreats Ahead of Fed and Election​

The dollar index fell below 104 on Monday, reversing gains from the prior session as investors braced for the upcoming U.S. presidential election and a key Federal Reserve policy announcement. Recent market dynamics have pushed the dollar and Treasury yields higher amid speculation that Trump might regain the presidency this month. His proposed policies on immigration, tax cuts, and tariffs raised concerns about potential inflation. However, uncertainty surrounding the election results led traders to temper those expectations this morning. On the monetary policy side, the Fed is largely anticipated to lower interest rates by a modest 25 basis points this week, following a larger half-percentage point cut in September. Markets are also factoring in an additional quarter-point reduction in December.

In the EUR/USD pair, the initial resistance level is at 1.0910, followed by 1.0940 and 1.0960 as subsequent resistance points. On the downside, the first support level is 1.0870, which aligns with the 200-day moving average. If this level is breached, the next support levels to watch will be 1.0830 and 1.0800.

Post automatically merged: Nov 4, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.04.2024​

Gold Maintains Stability Amid U.S. Election Uncertainty​

Gold continues stable movement at $2,740 per ounce on Monday after closing the previous week nearly stable as well. Political uncertainty in the U.S., potential inflation from a possible Trump presidency, and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine continue to drive investors to gold as a safe-haven asset. Betting site polls showed a switch from Trump to Harris over the weekend nearly declining from 66% to 54% further supporting the yellow metal with providing more uncertainty.

On the downside, the first support level for gold is at $2,735, followed by $2,714 and $2,685. On the upside, $2,758 serves as a key resistance level, with $2,770 and $2,790 as the next levels to monitor if this resistance is surpassed.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.05.2024​

Traders Brace for Election Outcomes as Dollar Remains Firm​

The dollar index remains steady at around 103.9 as uncertainty from the U.S. presidential election influences trading positions.

With a close race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, investors are also cautious before the Federal Reserve's expected 25-basis-point rate cut. In Japan, the yen weakened to 152.3 per dollar following the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain its interest rate, while speculation about a future rate hike persists. Gold holds above $2,730 as a hedge against inflation, while silver trades around $32.50 with attention on potential stimulus from China. The British pound is trading at 1.2960, with the election outcome expected to impact its direction.

Post automatically merged: Nov 6, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.05.2024​

Dollar Pauses, Eyes Fed and Election​

The dollar index hovered around 103.9 on Tuesday, holding onto losses from the previous session as uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election prompted traders to scale back some of their “Trump trade” positions. Recent polls show a tighter race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump than initially expected, with market focus also on the balance of power in Congress. A potential sweep by one party could lead to major shifts in spending and tax policies. On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce a more cautious 25-basis-point rate cut on Thursday, as it faces the challenge of managing persistent inflation while responding to a slowing labor market. Markets are also factoring in the possibility of another quarter-point cut in December.

For the EUR/USD pair, the initial resistance level is at 1.0910, followed by 1.0940 and 1.0990 as subsequent resistance points. On the downside, the first support level is 1.0870, which aligns with the 200-day moving average. If this level is breached, the next support levels to watch will be 1.0830 and 1.0800.

Post automatically merged: Nov 6, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.05.2024​

Can the Pound Capitalize on U.S. Election?​

GBP/USD is trading around 1.2960 on Tuesday morning, just ahead of the U.S. elections. The market focus will be on the election outcome, as it will likely influence the direction of the DXY and precious metals. Additionally, the Bank of England's interest rate decision on Thursday will be a key factor in determining the direction of GBP/USD.

On the downside, key support levels for the GBP/USD pair are at 1.2945, 1.2885, and 1.2840. On the upside, resistance levels to watch are at 1.3010, 1.3045, and 1.3080.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.06.2024​

Election-Driven Dollar Rally Pressures Global Currencies​

Global markets are highly reactive as the US presidential election unfolds, with a strong dollar pressuring various assets.

The euro plunged to a four-month low against the dollar as Trump's potential lead raised expectations of inflationary policies, while the ECB faces challenges from rising Eurozone inflation. Similarly, the yen weakened against the dollar amid increasing Treasury yields and Bank of Japan's steady rate policies. Gold and silver prices fell as investors adjusted for a stronger dollar and the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut. GBP/USD holds steady ahead of the Fed's decision, as dollar strength supports a potential 0.25% rate cut.

Post automatically merged: Nov 6, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.06.2024​

Euro Plunges on Trump Rally, ECB Concerns​

The euro dropped 1.6% to around $1.075 on Wednesday, reaching its lowest point in four months, as the dollar strengthened following early signs that Donald Trump may be on track to win the US presidential election. The outcome of the race is now dependent on key swing states. In recent weeks, the dollar has been supported by Trump trades, driven by market expectations of higher inflation and increased government spending under his economic policies.

In Europe, investors continued to evaluate the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy stance, especially after a surprisingly strong inflation report for the Eurozone. Annual inflation in the region rose to 2% from 1.7% in 2021, surpassing the anticipated 1.9%. Core inflation remained steady at 2.7%, slightly above the expected dip of 2.6%. As a result, markets are now fully pricing in a 25 basis point reduction in the ECB's deposit rate in December, which would be the fourth cut following reductions in June, September, and October.

The first resistance level is at 1.0770 for EUR/USD, followed by 1.0830 and 1.0875 as the next resistance points. The first support level is 1.0700, which aligns with the 200-day moving average. If this level is breached, the next support levels to watch will be 1.0660 and 1.0600.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.07.2024​

Markets Await Fed, BoE Decisions as Dollar Surges Post-Election​

Today, the market landscape cautious as the dollar rallies on Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election victory, with investors focused on upcoming rate decisions from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.

The EUR/USD remains under pressure with the dollar index hovering near multi-month highs, while the yen is vulnerable as Japanese authorities warn of potential intervention amid dollar strength. Gold and silver, pressured by the stronger dollar and shifting safe-haven sentiment, hold steady as traders await the Fed’s anticipated 25 basis point rate cut and any signals on future monetary easing. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is trading cautiously as the Bank of England’s rate decision looms, with expectations for a cut. This week’s pivotal data releases and central bank meetings are set to shape the next moves across currency and metal markets.

Post automatically merged: Nov 8, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.07.2024​

Gold Hovers Near $2,750 as Markets Await Fed's Next Move​

Gold held steady at around $2,650 per ounce on Thursday, after dropping more than 3% to a three-week low in the previous session, weighed down by a stronger dollar following Donald Trump's U.S. presidential victory. Trump's win has prompted traders to exit safe-haven gold positions, with expectations of higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve reducing the metal's appeal. Trump's campaign promises, which included policies on immigration, raising tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulation, have fueled concerns about larger deficits and inflation, further pressuring gold. Attention is now shifting to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy announcement later in the day, where a 25 basis point rate cut is widely anticipated.

On the downside, the first support level for gold is at $2,635, followed by $2,600 and $2,570. On the upside, $2,670 serves as a key resistance level, with $2,695 and $2,715 as the next levels to monitor if this resistance is surpassed.

Post automatically merged: Nov 8, 2024

Yen Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.07.2024​

Yen Slips Further on Dollar Strength Post-U.S. Election​

The Japanese yen traded around 154.4 per dollar on Thursday, lingering near a three-month low, raising concerns that Japanese authorities might intervene in the currency markets. Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s top currency official, warned that he is "closely monitoring FX movements with a heightened sense of urgency" and stands "ready to take appropriate action" if excessive volatility continues. The yen dropped nearly 2% on Wednesday, pressured by a sharp rally in the dollar after Republican Donald Trump’s clear victory in the U.S. presidential election. Meanwhile, new data showed Japan's real wages declined 0.1% in September, as consumer inflation accelerated to 2.9%, outpacing the 2.8% rise in nominal wages. These wage figures further complicate the Bank of Japan’s outlook on potential interest rate hikes, which are already clouded by political uncertainty in the country.

In the USD/JPY pair, the first support level is at 153.80, which coincides with the 200-day moving average. If this level is broken, the next support levels to monitor are 152.20 and 151.50. On the upside, resistance levels are at 154.90, 155.70, and 156.60, respectively.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.08.2024​

Global Markets React to the Fed Rate Cut Impact​

Today, markets respond to the Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point rate cut decision. It reflects a flexible approach, with Chair Jerome Powell highlighting a meeting-by-meeting policy stance, unaffected by the recent U.S. election outcome.

As expected, this rate adjustment has influenced currency values and commodity prices, with implications for future market movements. Let’s take a look at the roadmap for potential movements influenced by upcoming inflation data, trade policy shifts, and anticipated central bank actions in December.

Post automatically merged: Nov 8, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.08.2024​

Fed’s 25-Point Cut Holds EUR/USD Near 1.0776​

The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.0776 on Friday, while the dollar index remains steady at around 104.5 as investors digest the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision. The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, as anticipated, with Chair Jerome Powell reiterating that the central bank is not following a predetermined course. He emphasized that future decisions would be made on a meeting basis and noted that the outcome of the upcoming election would not influence policy in the near term. Market expectations are for another quarter-point rate cut in December, although any unexpected inflation or labor market data could shift this outlook. There are fears that Trump’s proposed tariff hikes could reignite inflation, potentially preventing the Fed from continuing to lower rates. The dollar is poised to end the week with modest gains, as traders took profits following the post-election rally.

In the EUR/USD pair, the initial resistance level is at 1.0830, followed by 1.0875 and 1.0900 as subsequent resistance points. On the downside, the first support level is 1.0770, which aligns with the 200-day moving average. If this level is breached, the next support levels to watch will be 1.0700 and 1.0660.

Post automatically merged: Nov 8, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.08.2024​

BoE Cuts Rates to 4.75%, GBP/USD Holds Near 1.2970​

The GBP/USD pair is trading around 1.2970 following yesterday’s decision by the Bank of England to cut its Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%, as expected. This marks the second rate reduction in four years, following the start of the BoE’s easing cycle in August. Eight out of nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted in favor of the cut, surpassing expectations of seven votes, with Catherine Mann being the only member to vote for a hold. The decision reflects signs of slowing price growth in the UK economy, as September’s inflation dropped to a more than three-year low of 1.7%. Additionally, services inflation, which typically reflects more persistent price pressures, fell to a two-year low of 4.9%, although it remains elevated. While the BoE expects inflation to continue moderating in the medium term, it anticipates that the Labour Party’s expansionary budget will push inflation up by 0.5 percentage points at its peak. The central bank now forecasts year-end inflation at 2.5% and 2.2% by 2026. The budget is also expected to boost GDP by 0.75% at its peak impact within a year.

On the downside, key support levels for the GBP/USD pair are at 1.2950, 1.2900, and 1.2840. On the upside, resistance levels to watch are at 1.3000, 1.3050, and 1.3100.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.11.2024​

Market Focus Shifts to Key Inflation Data and Central Bank Signals​

Investors await crucial U.S. inflation data and Fed signals amid a resilient dollar in a cautious trading environment.

The EUR/USD remains steady as political uncertainties and Trump’s policies add pressure, while the yen weakens following BoJ’s rate discussions and potential intervention warnings. Gold and silver face downward pressure from inflation concerns and the strong dollar, with further volatility expected. Meanwhile, GBP/USD holds steady as the Bank of England’s rate decisions approach, with traders watching upcoming U.K. economic data closely.

Post automatically merged: Nov 11, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.11.2024​

EUR/USD Holds Steady as Markets Eye U.S. Inflation and Fed Signals​

The EUR/USD traded around 1.0720 Monday, with the Dollar Index steady at 105 as investors awaited U.S. inflation data and Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Thursday for policy signals. Last week, the dollar saw volatility but rose overall, partly due to inflation concerns and Trump’s impact on the debt outlook. Despite a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut with limited guidance, the dollar remains strong, especially against the yuan, given China’s weak stimulus and inflation data.

For EUR/USD, resistance levels stand at 1.0780, 1.0830, and 1.0870, while support lies at 1.0680, with further levels at 1.0650 and 1.0600.

Post automatically merged: Nov 11, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.11.2024​

Gold Slips as U.S. and China Inflation Data Add Pressure​

Gold slipped to around $2,670 per ounce on Monday, marking a second decline as markets await U.S. inflation data and Fed speeches for clues on rate policy. Last week, the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate cut suggested a slower pace of cuts amid inflation concerns tied to Trump’s policies. China’s inflation rate also hit a four-month low despite stimulus efforts.

For gold, support levels are $2,657, $2,635, and $2,600, while resistance is at $2,710, followed by $2,726 and $2,750.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.12.2024​

Dollar Surge Pressures Major Currencies and Metals​

The US dollar strengthened across markets as optimism about a potential second Trump presidency increased expectations for tax cuts, deregulation, and higher tariffs on China and the EU.

This drove the DXY to a four-month high and pressured major currencies like the euro, yen, and pound, with EUR/USD at 1.0630 and GBP/USD near 1.2820. Precious metals were also affected; gold fell to $2,600 per ounce, and silver dropped to $30.20 as investors moved to riskier assets. Key support and resistance levels remain in focus as markets await US inflation data and Fed signals.

Post automatically merged: Nov 12, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.12.2024​

Dollar Strength Drags Gold Prices Lower​

Gold prices dropped to around $2,600 per ounce, marking the third session of losses and hitting a one-month low. The decline was driven by a stronger US dollar and waning demand for safe-haven assets. Investors continued to pivot toward riskier assets as they considered the potential economic impact of Donald Trump's election victory, particularly regarding fiscal policies and monetary strategies.

The prospect of tariffs being introduced early in Trump's presidency has raised inflation concerns, which in turn has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve may delay its easing plans into next year. As a result, the likelihood of a rate cut in December has decreased, falling from nearly 80% a week ago to around 65%. On the other hand, data from the World Gold Council reveals that holdings in Indian gold ETFs have surged, doubling over the past four years to a record 54.5 tonnes as of October 31st.

On the downside, the first support level for gold is at $2,600, followed by $2,550 and $2,500. On the upside, $2,615 serves as a key resistance level, with $2,655 and $2,685 as the next levels to monitor if this resistance is surpassed.

Post automatically merged: Nov 12, 2024

Silver Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.12.2024​

Silver Dips as Risk Appetite Rises​

Silver is trading around $30.20, its lowest level in nearly two months, as a surge in risk sentiment dampened demand for the precious metal. This was compounded by weak fiscal support from China, the world's top consumer of silver. The prospect of expansionary fiscal policies in the US prompted investors to shift away from precious metals like silver and into riskier assets such as growth stocks and cryptocurrencies.

China chose to restructure its public debt in its latest fiscal measures instead of introducing new fiscal stimulus, diminishing previous expectations of industrial support. This decision has weighed on the outlook for industrial metals, including silver, which is heavily used in sectors like electrification and solar panels. Adding to the pressure, Chinese solar panel manufacturers have reportedly begun scaling back production, partly in response to concerns over higher tariffs on the sector that could result from Trump's election victory.

On the upside, the critical resistance levels to watch are 30.90, 31.65, and 32.00. On the downside, 29.85 remains a significant first support level. If this level is breached, the next support levels to monitor are 29.30 and 28.80, respectively.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.13.2024​

U.S. Inflation Data and Fed Signals Shape Markets​

The focus is on the cautious market sentiment as major currencies and metals respond to potential inflationary pressures from a possible second Trump term and key U.S. data releases.

With CPI, PPI, and retail sales reports on the horizon, as well as Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech, traders are closely watching for signals that could shape the outlook for rate cuts. The EUR/USD remains near a one-year low, while the yen weakens and gold gains modestly amid evolving inflation expectations.

Post automatically merged: Nov 13, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.13.2024​

EUR/USD at 1.0610: Market Awaits CPI, PPI, and Fed Signals​

The EUR/USD traded around 1.0610 on Wednesday, while the dollar index held near a six-month high at 105.9, as investors awaited key U.S. economic data. The October CPI report, due soon, could shape expectations for Fed rate cuts, with additional attention on Thursday's PPI report, Friday's retail sales, and a speech from Fed Chair Powell. The dollar remains strong, fueled by "Trump trades" betting on inflationary policies under a possible second term, which could limit Fed rate cuts. Currently, markets see a 60% chance of a December rate cut, down from 84.4% last month. The euro has dropped to a one-year low.

EUR/USD resistance levels are 1.0650, 1.0700, and 1.0750; support is at 1.0590, with further levels at 1.0550 and 1.0500.

Post automatically merged: Nov 13, 2024

USD/JPY Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.13.2024​

JPY Weakens as BOJ Policymakers Split on Rate Hikes​

The Japanese yen weakened toward 155 per dollar, hitting a three-month low as the U.S. dollar gained on "Trump trades" that anticipate inflationary policies limiting Fed rate cuts. Japan’s producer prices surged in October, marking the largest rise in 14 months and highlighting inflation pressures. Investors await Friday's Q3 GDP data for further economic insights. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan meeting minutes showed policymakers divided on future rate hikes, though the bank maintains a 1% rate target by late 2025.

For USD/JPY, support levels are at 154.50 (200-day moving average), 153.40, and 152.30, while resistance is at 155.30, 156.00, and 156.50.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.14.2024​

Markets Await U.S. Inflation Data and Fed Guidance​

As the market reacts to U.S. inflation data and comments from Fed officials, major currencies and metals experience heightened volatility.

The dollar index climbs to a yearly high, supported by expectations of inflationary policies if Trump secures a second term, which could affect Fed rate decisions. Meanwhile, EUR/USD hovers near a one-year low, USD/JPY weakens further, and gold and silver face downward pressure due to rate cut speculations. Upcoming data, including PPI, retail sales, and Fed Chair Powell's remarks, will likely influence market direction in the days ahead.

Post automatically merged: Nov 14, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.14.2024​

Gold Drops for Fifth Day as Fed Rate Cut Odds Shift​

Gold fell to around $2,560 per ounce on Thursday, marking its fifth consecutive loss and hitting an eight-week low as a stronger dollar pressured prices following the latest U.S. CPI data. Although the CPI met expectations, the three-month annualized core inflation rate rose slightly. Despite this, the market expects a December Fed rate cut, with an 80% probability, up from 60% before the report. Gold has lost over 4% since last Friday, weighed down by speculation that inflationary policies under a potential Trump presidency might prompt the Fed to hold off on further cuts. Investors now await today's PPI data and weekly jobless claims, with retail sales due Friday.

For gold, support levels are at $2,545, $2,520, and $2,500, while resistance is at $2,595, $2,625, and $2,660.

Post automatically merged: Nov 14, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.14.2024​

GBP/USD Drops on Inflation Fears and BoE Caution​

The British pound traded around 1.2690 on Thursday, a three-month low, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and expectations that Trump’s policies could drive inflation, limiting Fed rate cuts. In the UK, labor data aligned with the Bank of England’s cautious stance on rate cuts; regular pay rose 4.8% in the three months to September, and total pay growth, including bonuses, accelerated. However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, with job vacancies at their lowest since May 2021. Last week, the Bank of England cut rates by 25 basis points and maintained a cautious outlook. Key UK Q3 GDP data is due later this week.

GBP/USD support levels are at 1.2685, 1.2650, and 1.2600, while resistance is at 1.2800, 1.2830, and 1.2880.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.15.2024​

UK GDP and US Retail Sales Data Shape Markets​

The market's focus today will be on the UK GDP data, while in the US, attention will be on retail sales.

After Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election, the EUR/USD pair is hovering near its lowest levels of 2024, while the DXY is trading at its 52-week high. Gold, on the other hand, has tested the 2530 levels again after about 3 months.

Post automatically merged: Nov 18, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.15.2024​

EUR/USD at 1.0540: Dollar Set for Strong Weekly Gain​

The Euro fell below $1.06, its lowest point since October 2023, as a strong dollar and concerns about trade tariffs following Trump's election victory weighed heavily on the currency. Political instability in Germany and expectations of a 25 bps ECB rate cut in December added to the pressure. Meanwhile, Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator fell to 7.4 in November, well below expectations. The dollar index stayed near 106.8 on Friday, on track for its strongest week in over a month, as investors scaled back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Fed Chair Powell indicated no rush to cut rates, highlighting the strong economy, a strong job market, and ongoing inflation. As a result, market odds for a 0.25% rate cut at the Fed's December meeting dropped to around 59%, down from 82.5% the previous day.

EUR/USD resistance levels are 1.0560, 1.0615, and 1.0650; support is at 1.0500, with further levels at 1.0450 and 1.0400.

Post automatically merged: Nov 18, 2024

USD/JPY Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.15.2024​

Yen Weakens on Q3 Low Growth​

The Japanese yen weakened past 156 per dollar on Friday, its lowest in nearly four months, after Japan's Q3 GDP grew just 0.2%, down from 0.5% in Q2. Annual growth slowed to 0.9% from 2.2%. Uncertainty about the Bank of Japan's policy direction, combined with a stronger US dollar, kept pressure on the yen. The BoJ still expects to raise rates to 1% by mid-2025, despite mixed economic data and political instability.

For USD/JPY, support levels are at 154.50 (200-day moving average), 153.40, and 152.30, while resistance is at 156.50, 157.30, and 158.50.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.18.2024​

Dollar Near Two-Year Highs, UK CPI in Focus​

The US Dollar Index hovers near two-year highs at 106.6, pressuring EUR/USD at 1.0540 as hawkish Fed expectations weigh on the euro and pound.

The yen weakened to 155 after hints of gradual BoJ rate hikes, while crude oil and gold saw mixed performances amid shifting market dynamics. Gold rebounded to $2,600, supported by geopolitical tensions and Fed uncertainty. The GBP/USD at 1.2630 awaits UK CPI data, which may shape its trajectory. Silver recovered to $30.60, driven by China's economic outlook and US PMI expectations.

Post automatically merged: Nov 18, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.18.2024​

EUR/USD Under Pressure as Dollar Soars on Fed​

The EUR/USD is trading around 1.0540, while the US Dollar Index remains stable near 106.6 on Monday, hovering close to its highest levels in two years. This comes on growing expectations for fewer Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and optimism regarding the US economy’s performance under a potential second Trump presidency. Last week, Powell signaled that the central bank has no immediate plans to lower rates, citing the economy's resilience, a strong labor market, and ongoing inflationary pressures. Additionally, strong retail sales and inflation data reinforced a more hawkish outlook on Fed policy. While markets still anticipate a 0.25% rate cut in December, projections for further rate cuts through late 2025 have been revised down to 77 basis points, compared to over 100 basis points just a few weeks ago.

Investors are closely monitoring the potential appointment of Donald Trump's Treasury Secretary, with Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick and investor Scott Bessent emerging as leading candidates for the role. ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech today, before tomorrow's Eurozone CPI data release, will be analyzed for insights into future ECB policy.

In the EUR/USD pair, the initial resistance level is at 1.0600 followed by 1.0650 and 1.0700 as subsequent resistance points. On the downside, the first support level is 1.0500. If this level is breached, the next support levels to watch will be 1.0450 and 1.0400.

Post automatically merged: Nov 18, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.18.2024​

Gold Finds Support, Fed Uncertainty Persists​

Gold prices surged to nearly $2,600 per ounce on Monday, recovering from their largest weekly decline since 2021, as the rally in the US dollar paused. Recent US data showed a strong rise in retail sales for October, highlighting the economy's resilience. Comments from several Federal Reserve officials last week added uncertainty over the timing and magnitude of potential rate cuts. However, markets are still pricing at roughly a 65% probability of a 25bps rate cut in December. Investors are now focused on upcoming remarks from other Fed officials this week, looking for clearer signals on the future path of US interest rates. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, could fuel safe-haven demand, providing additional support for gold.

The first support level for gold is at $2,575, followed by $2,545 and $2,520 while $2,605 serves as a key resistance level, with $2,635 and $2,665 as the next levels to monitor if this resistance is surpassed.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.19.2024​

Market Awaits Upcoming EUR CPI Data​

On Tuesday, precious metals and oil started the day with an increase due to geopolitical tensions.

In the dollar market, however, we see that after a significant rally, the pairs are beginning to rise again as profit-taking continues. In the Eurozone, we will see whether the rise in the EUR/USD pair continues with the release of the upcoming CPI data today.

Post automatically merged: Nov 20, 2024

USD/JPY Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.19.2024​

Japanese Yen Gains on Speculation of Possible Intervention​

The Japanese yen strengthened to around 154 per dollar on Tuesday, recovering from four-month lows, as authorities issued warnings against excessive forex moves. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato emphasized the government would monitor exchange rates and take action if needed. MUFG also suggested Japan could accelerate interest rate hikes due to persistent inflation. However, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said any rate increases would be gradual, without giving a specific timeline. The yen has dropped over 10% since September, impacted by uncertainty over BOJ policy and a stronger dollar driven by expectations of fewer Fed rate cuts.

In the USD/JPY pair, the first support level is at 153.80. If this level is broken, the next support levels to monitor are 152.50 and 151.80. On the upside, resistance levels are at 156.10, 157.50, and 158.00, respectively.

Post automatically merged: Nov 20, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.19.2024​

Gold Rises on Weaker US Dollar​

Gold surged above $2,620 per ounce on Tuesday, reaching its highest point in a week, primarily due to a weakening US dollar. Market focus has now shifted to remarks from Federal Reserve officials, as investors seek more insight into the central bank’s stance on monetary easing. Expectations for a rate cut of 0.25% at the Fed’s December meeting have fallen to just below 59%, a decrease from 62% the previous day and over 65% a week earlier, according to CME FedWatch. Investors are also closely tracking President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet picks. Additionally, growing geopolitical uncertainties are driving increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold, as tensions continue to rise in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine.

The first support level for gold is at $2,575, followed by $2,545 and $2,525 while $2,635 serves as a key resistance level, with $2,691 and $2,711 as the next levels to monitor if this resistance is surpassed.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.20.2024​

Russia-Ukraine Developments Test Market Strength​

Metals continued their upward movement on Wednesday with increasing tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

The dollar, which rallied following Trump's victory, declined due to profit-taking but has since rebounded from the 106 level and is rising again. On the UK side, today’s upcoming CPI data will be crucial in determining the direction of GBP/USD. Meanwhile, in the US, data remains subdued as the week progresses.

Post automatically merged: Nov 25, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.20.2024​

EUR/USD Attempts Breaking Above 1.06$​

The EUR/USD pair has struggled to gain momentum, trading below the $1.06 mark and at risk of further declines. The strength of the US dollar has been the dominant factor in foreign exchange markets in recent weeks, outweighing geopolitical concerns. This has put downward pressure on all major currency pairs, driven by rising inflation fears following Trump's victory and the Federal Reserve's indication that it will slow its rate cuts.

Euro faces challenges from political instability in Europe, weakening economic data from the Eurozone, and potential escalations in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While US data is light this week, global PMIs on Friday could increase volatility.

The dollar index maintained its recent drop, settling around 106.2 on Wednesday, as the initial surge in demand for safe-haven currencies, triggered by the intensifying Russia-Ukraine conflict, began to fade.

EUR/USD resistance levels are 1.0600, 1.0650, and 1.0700, with support at 1.0550, 1.0500, and 1.0450.

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GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.20.2024​

UK Inflation Data Key for GBP/USD Direction​

GBP/USD fluctuated just below the 1.2700 mark, as traders of the pair braced for a significant release of UK economic data, highlighted by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures for October. With US economic data taking a backseat on the same day, attention in the pair shifted to the UK reports, which could influence the Bank of England's (BoE) stance on potential rate cuts for the remainder of the year. In its Monetary Policy Report released on Tuesday, the BoE adopted a cautious tone, stating that interest rates remain "moderately restrictive." As a result, market participants are now pricing in less than a 20% probability of an additional rate cut by the BoE this year.

Key support levels for the GBP/USD pair are at 1.2595, 1.2520, and 1.2475. On the upside, resistance levels to watch are at 1.2700, 1.2740, and 1.2820.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.21.2024​

Markets Rattle Amid Geopolitical Strains and Rate Speculation​

Global markets are navigating a volatile landscape as escalating geopolitical tensions, including new developments in the Russia-Ukraine war, and heightened risks in the Middle East drive safe-haven demand for gold while weighing on risk-sensitive currencies.

The Euro and Pound remain under pressure amid policy uncertainty, while the Yen struggles with domestic economic concerns and dollar strength. Meanwhile, industrial metals like silver face headwinds from weaker demand prospects, and investors await key central bank rate decisions for further direction.

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EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.21.2024​

Geopolitical Strains and Wage Pressures Weigh on the Euro​

The Euro/Dollar is trading around 1.0545 on Thursday after yesterday’s sell of, pressured by a general dollar strength, mounting tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and growing concerns about downside risks to the Eurozone economy. Reports emerged that Ukraine had fired UK cruise missiles into Russia for the first time. Meanwhile, in its annual Financial Stability Review, the ECB highlighted that heightened geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties are amplifying sovereign vulnerabilities, while rising global trade tensions are increasing the likelihood of adverse economic shocks. On the other hand, negotiated wages in the Euro Area rose 5.4% YoY in Q3, the most since the euro was introduced, complicating the ECB’s plans for interest rate cuts. The central bank is still expected to deliver its fourth 25 bps rate cut in December.

In the EUR/USD, the first resistance level is 1.0600 followed by 1.0650 and 1.0700 respectively. On the downside the first support level is 1.0550 and next support levels to watch are 1.0500 and 1.0450 consecutively.

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Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.21.2024​

Gold Climbs Above $2,650 as Geopolitical Tensions Escalate​

Gold extended its recent gains to above $2,650 per ounce on Thursday, rising for the fourth consecutive session, as investors sought safety in the metal as geopolitical uncertainty intensified with escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions. On Wednesday, Ukraine launched Western-supplied long-range weapons for the second time, a day after President Putin approved an updated nuclear doctrine expanding the conditions for using nuclear weapons. At the same time, the US vetoed a UN resolution for a Gaza ceasefire, reigniting concerns over the ongoing Middle East conflict. On the monetary policy front, markets continued to assess the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook, closely watching Fedspeak for new trading signals. A slight majority of the market still expects a 25bps rate cut in December, which would reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold.

In the XAU/USD, the first resistance level is 2665 followed by 2692 and 2712 respectively. On the downside the first support level is 2630 and next support levels to watch are 2590 and 2550 consecutively.

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Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.22.2024​

Gold Shines, Dollar Surges with Global Tensions​

Markets react to geopolitical tensions, inflation data, and monetary policy shifts.

Friday saw the dollar hold strong above 107 on rate hike expectations, while gold hit $2,680, marking its fifth straight gain. Silver rebounded to $31, supported by geopolitical tensions and steady Chinese policy. In forex, GBP/USD slid on rising UK inflation, and USD/JPY traded near 154.85 after weak Japanese manufacturing data.

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GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.22.2024​

GBP/USD Slides as UK Inflation Rises​

The British pound is trading around 1.2570 as of this morning, nearing the six-month low it reached last week amid escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Reports indicate that Ukraine has launched UK-supplied cruise missiles into Russia for the first time. Earlier in the week, the pound briefly touched $1.271 after a stronger-than-expected inflation reading, which reaffirmed the Bank of England's cautious stance on future interest rate cuts.

In October, the UK’s annual inflation rate rose to 2.3%, the highest in six months, up from 1.7% in September. This exceeded both the Bank of England’s target and the market’s forecast of 2.2%. Inflation in services, a key indicator of domestic price pressures closely monitored by the central bank, edged up slightly to 5% from 4.9%. As a result, markets are now pricing in only a 14% chance of a rate cut this year, with expectations for just two cuts in 2025.

The first resistance level for the pair is at 1.2620, followed by 1.2680 and 1.2720, respectively. On the downside, the first support level is at 1.2550, with subsequent levels to watch at 1.2520 and 1.2475.

 

[zForex]

Silver Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.22.2024​

Silver Prices Rebound with China Demand​

Silver prices are trading around $31 per ounce on Friday morning, rebounding from losses in the previous session. On Wednesday, Ukraine launched a series of UK-made missiles into Russia, following an earlier strike using US-made missiles. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions intensified as the US blocked a UN Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza.

Regarding monetary policy, Federal Reserve governors Michelle Bowman and Lisa Cook offered differing views on inflation and the future trajectory of interest rates in separate statements on Wednesday. In China, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) kept key lending rates steady this week, aligning with expectations and providing no new signals likely to affect demand in the world's largest metals consumer.

For XAG/USD, the first resistance level is at 31.60, followed by 32.50 and 32.80, respectively. On the downside, the first support level is at 30.80, with additional levels to watch at 30.20 and 29.80.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.25.2024​

Markets Eye Fed Uncertainty Before US Data​

The dollar starts the week weakening against all major currencies.

Global markets are shaped by concerns over escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine and uncertainties surrounding the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy. Meanwhile, attention is turning to the US growth data set to be released next week.

Adding to the ongoing political tensions, potential conflicts between newly elected US President Donald Trump and the Fed's leadership are contributing to market volatility. Signals from the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on November 6-7, scheduled for release on Tuesday, are expected to provide insights into the Fed's future projections.

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EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.25.2024​

EUR/USD Tests 1.0500 as Dollar Retreats​

The EUR/USD pair started the week on a positive note, testing the 1.0500 resistance level. The dollar index fell 0.6% on Monday, dipping below 107 and retreating from its recent two-year highs after President-elect Donald Trump selected hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. This announcement reassured investors, as Bessent is expected to focus on economic and market stability despite his support for Trump’s tariff and tax cut plans.

The dollar weakened against all major currencies, with the euro, British pound, Australian dollar, and Japanese yen posting significant gains. Market attention now shifts to the release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes, PCE inflation data, and other key economic indicators, which could shape expectations for future Fed rate decisions. Last week, the dollar surged to a two-year high amid speculation that Trump’s policies could drive inflation, potentially limiting the Fed's ability to lower interest rates.

Support levels for EUR/USD are at 1.0450, with further levels at 1.0400 and 1.0360. On the upside, resistance is at 1.0520, followed by 1.0610 and 1.0640.

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GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.25.2024​

GBP/USD Opens Week Strong, Breaks Above 1.2500​

The GBP/USD pair opened the week with a bullish gap, rebounding from a three-day decline that had pushed it below 1.2500 to its lowest level since May. During the Asian trading session, the pair climbed to 1.2600, bolstered by a weaker US Dollar (USD).

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against a basket of major currencies, retreated from a two-year high as traders took profits amid a sharp decline in US Treasury bond yields. Additionally, a global risk-on rally in equity markets further weighed on the safe-haven dollar, providing additional upward momentum for the GBP/USD pair.

In the GBP/USD pair, the first resistance level is at 1.2620, followed by 1.2680 and 1.2720. On the downside, the first support level is at 1.2550, with subsequent supports at 1.2520 and 1.2475.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.26.2024​

Markets React to Treasury Nomination and Geopolitical Developments​

Markets are reacting to shifting geopolitical and economic developments as the dollar weakens following Scott Bessent's nomination as Treasury Secretary, signaling a focus on stability amid tariff concerns.

Precious metals, including gold and silver, face pressure from reduced safe-haven demand due to Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire reports, while the Euro and Pound experience mixed movements ahead of crucial economic data. Investors turn their attention to upcoming Fed minutes, Eurozone inflation figures, and Tokyo’s inflation data to gauge potential monetary policy adjustments.

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EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.26.2024​

Market Eyes ECB Rate Cuts as Eurozone Risks Persist​

The Euro edged closer to $1.05, supported by a weakening dollar after Donald Trump announced Scott Bessent as his Treasury Secretary pick. Bessent’s expected focus on stability eased concerns over sweeping tariffs. However, the Euro remains near two-year lows amid worries over Eurozone economic risks, including a second Trump term, the Ukraine war, and political instability in Germany and France. Markets have fully priced in a 25bps ECB rate cut next month, with a 58% chance of a 50bps cut. Upcoming Euro Area inflation data this week may provide further clarity on the ECB’s next move.

Resistance levels for the euro are at 1.0530, followed by 1.0600 and 1.0660. Support levels are at 1.0450, 1.0400, and 1.0330.

 

[zForex]

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.26.2024​

Focus Shifts to Fed Minutes as Gold Recovers from Sharp Drop​

Gold steadied around $2,620 on Tuesday after a 3.4% drop, driven by reports of an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire reducing safe-haven demand. The metal faced further pressure from a stronger dollar following Trump’s announcement of tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China. Gold was also impacted by the nomination of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, who advocated phased trade restrictions and negotiation on tariff levels. Investors now await the Fed’s November meeting minutes for insights into future monetary policy.

Resistance levels for gold are at $2,635, $2,660, and $2,690. Support levels are at $2,600, $2,575, and $2,550.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.27.2024​

Markets Await US Economic Data​

Financial markets are waiting for data from the US.

Today, PCE data and Q3 GDP growth rates will be released. These data, which are important for the direction of the dollar, will continue to provide investors with clues regarding rate cuts. On the other hand, calming geopolitical risks will be significant for investors regarding the direction of metals.

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Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.27.2024​

Gold Gains as Key US Data Approaches​

Gold moved higher toward $2,640 per ounce on Wednesday as investors continued to analyze the latest FOMC meeting minutes and awaited important US economic data for more clues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction. The minutes showed that officials were confident about inflation easing and the strength of the labor market, but also indicated a cautious stance on further rate cuts, favoring gradual changes.

Most investors are still expecting a 25 basis point rate cut in December, with a probability of approximately 63%, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Traders are closely monitoring upcoming data, including initial jobless claims, the second estimate of GDP, and PCE figures set for later in the day. However, gold’s attractiveness was somewhat limited by reduced geopolitical tensions and a stronger US dollar.

Resistance levels for gold are at $2,650, $2,675, and $2,710. Support levels are at $2,630, $2,600, and $2,575.

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GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.27.2024​

Pound Holds Ground Below $1.26​

GBP/USD traded just below 1.2600 on Wednesday, staying in a familiar range as the British Pound struggled to find an intraday trend against the US Dollar. A light economic calendar on both sides of the Atlantic kept Cable traders cautious, but upcoming US inflation data could trigger new volatility before the US Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. While a series of financial reports from the UK are set to be released on Friday, they are generally considered low-priority and are expected to have little impact. However, more detail-oriented Pound traders might pay attention to the Bank of England’s latest Financial Stability Report, also scheduled for Friday, though it is unlikely to drive significant market movement.

From a technical perspective, the initial resistance to watch is 1.2620, and if broken, the next levels to monitor are 1.2680 and 1.2720. On the downside, the first support is at 1.2530, with subsequent support levels at 1.2500 and 1.2475 if it falls below.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.28.2024​

Markets Weigh ECB Signals, BOJ Speculation, and US Data​

Global markets are navigating a complex landscape marked by ECB caution on rate cuts, BOJ hints at potential policy shifts, and resilient US economic data.

The Euro gained modestly against the dollar, supported by ECB official Isabel Schnabel’s remarks against excessive easing, while the yen steadied amid speculation of a December rate hike. Precious metals saw mixed movements as geopolitical risks and US labor market strength influenced investor sentiment. Meanwhile, silver rebounded, and the pound approached $1.26 despite ongoing pressure from weak UK economic data and heightened global trade tensions.

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EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.28.2024​

Eurozone Challenges Deepen: ECB Stance, Inflation Targets, and Political Instability​

The euro climbed past $1.051, moving further away from a two-year low of $1.046 on Nov 21, after ECB official Isabel Schnabel cautioned against excessive rate cuts. She warned that borrowing costs are nearing neutral levels, and over-easing could waste policy options, prompting markets to lower expectations for ECB rate reductions through 2025. The debate over the ECB’s approach intensifies as inflation nears the 2% target amid Eurozone economic challenges. Global uncertainty grows with President-elect Donald Trump’s protectionist trade agenda, including proposed tariffs of 10% on Chinese goods and 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada. In France, bond risks surged to levels last seen during the Eurozone debt crisis, fueled by fears that PM Michel Barnier may fail to pass next year’s budget, adding to investor concerns about political instability in the region.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 1.0600, and if broken, the next levels to watch will be 1.0660 and 1.0700. On the downside, 1.0540 is the first support level, and if it breaks, the levels to watch will be 1.0500 and 1.0450.

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Yen Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.28.2024​

Yen Retreats Slightly as US Dollar Weakens and BOJ Signals Shift​

The Japanese yen eased to around 151.5 per dollar on Thursday in a likely technical correction after surging to its highest level in over five weeks the previous session. The recent rally was fueled by speculation that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates again as early as next month. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently indicated the possibility of a rate hike in December, citing concerns over the yen’s weakness. Markets are now pricing in a roughly 60% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in Japan next month, up from around 50% just a week ago. Now, the focus is on Tokyo's inflation data, due on Friday, which could provide additional insights into the future direction of BOJ policy. Externally, the yen gained support from a broad decline in the US dollar, as US PCE inflation data matched expectations, signaling little change in the Federal Reserve's approach to rate cuts.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 152.00, and if broken, the next levels to watch will be 153.00 and 153.60. On the downside, 150.90 is the first support level, and if it breaks, the levels to watch will be 150.20 and 148.70.