Daily Market Analysis By zForex

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.06.2024​

Anticipation Builds in Global Markets Before Key US Jobs Data Release​

As global markets remain on edge, the forex landscape is marked by cautious trading ahead of crucial US employment data. The dollar, balancing near recent lows, reflects investor hesitancy while the EUR/USD steadies, reflecting subdued activity before the jobs report potentially triggers more aggressive Fed rate cuts. Similarly, the yen strengthens on domestic wage growth amidst BOJ rate hike expectations, contrasting with the Fed's easing trajectory. Gold positions for potential gains, anticipating shifts in Fed policy could enhance its appeal. Meanwhile, GBP/USD benefits from USD weakness, and silver trades cautiously, each sensitive to the imminent Nonfarm Payrolls outcomes which could dictate short-term market directions and central bank responses.

Post automatically merged: Sep 6, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.06.2024​

EUR/USD Trades Cautiously Ahead of Key US Employment Data​

On Friday, the dollar index was around 101 and the EUR/USD pair was near 1.1115, both approaching their lowest levels in a week as investors anticipated the release of the August jobs report. This report could reinforce expectations for a substantial 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair struggled to build on recent gains, trading within a narrow range during the Asian session. Prices remained above 1.1100, showing minimal change as traders held off on new positions ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The dollar index is poised to drop nearly 1% this week, influenced by weak US economic data that has heightened recession fears and led to expectations of more aggressive Fed rate cuts. Recent figures showed the smallest increase in US private sector jobs since January 2021, although weekly jobless claims fell more than expected. Additionally, July saw job openings drop to their lowest level in three years, while manufacturing activity in August contracted more than expected. Currently, markets are pricing in a 40% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut this month, with over 100 basis points of total easing expected for the year. Later today, European growth data will be crucial ahead of next week's anticipated ECB rate cut decision.
In the pair, the first support level is at 1.1100. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.1045 and 1.1000. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.1150; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.1200 and 1.1250.

Post automatically merged: Sep 6, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.06.2024​

GBP/USD Benefits from USD Decline Ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls Report​

The GBP/USD pair remained in positive territory around 1.3180 on Friday, benefiting from ongoing US Dollar (USD) weakness. The market is keenly awaiting the August Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which will be set for release later in the day. Thursday's ADP report showed the slowest private sector job growth in over three and a half years, with just 99,000 jobs added in August, falling short of forecasts. This data heightens expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at its September 17-18 meeting. However, the Pound Sterling (GBP) is supported by expectations for modest Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has signaled that while inflation pressures might be easing, any further rate cuts will be cautious. The market anticipates a rate cut in November, with a 25% chance priced in for the September meeting.
For GBP/USD, the initial support lies at 1.3150, followed by 1.3100 and 1.3050 below. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.3190, with subsequent levels at 1.3265 and 1.3300 if the pair breaks above this resistance.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.09.2024​

ECB Rate Cut Hints Pressure Euro, Markets Eye Fed​

The Euro is under pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) hints at a potential rate cut following Eurozone inflation and GDP data, impacting EUR/USD, with key support at 1.1040. Meanwhile, mixed US jobs data has clouded the Federal Reserve’s rate path, affecting both the yen and gold prices. The Japanese yen weakened after initial strength, while gold remained stable as traders awaited the Fed's decision. Silver surged on rate cut hopes, but gains could be limited by reduced geopolitical tensions. GBP/USD faces headwinds due to concerns over US labor data and a cooling UK job market. Key support and resistance levels are being closely watched across these currency pairs and commodities as markets await further economic updates.

Post automatically merged: Sep 9, 2024

Euro Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.09.2024​

Euro Under Pressure as ECB Hints at Rate Cut​

EUR/USD is attempting to recover from previous losses, trading around 1.1090 during Monday's Asian session. However, the pair's upside potential may be constrained, as recent Eurozone inflation data have heightened expectations for a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) at its policy meeting on Thursday. With headline inflation nearing 2% and long-term forecasts stable, the ECB is likely to consider further monetary easing. Last week's mixed Eurozone GDP data also reinforced the likelihood of a rate cut. Meanwhile, US economic data from Friday introduced uncertainty about the extent of the Federal Reserve's potential rate cut in September. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 142,000 increase in Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for August, falling short of the 160,000 forecast but improving from July’s revised 89,000. The Unemployment Rate fell to 4.2%, matching expectations, down from 4.3% the previous month. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are anticipating at least a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, though the probability of a 50 bps cut has slightly decreased to 29.0%, down from 30.0% a week ago.
For the EUR/USD pair, the first support level is at 1.1040. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.1000 and 1.0950. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.1150; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.1200 and 1.1250.

Post automatically merged: Sep 9, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.09.2024​

Gold Prices Stable After Mixed US Jobs Report​

Gold held steady around $2,500 per ounce on Monday as investors evaluated the Federal Reserve’s potential interest rate cut this month, following a mixed US jobs report. The report showed fewer job additions than expected and significant downward revisions for June and July. Despite this, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, as predicted, and wage growth rose to 0.4%, surpassing the 0.3% forecast. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams suggested that a rate cut is now suitable due to progress on inflation and a cooling labor market. The markets are split on whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or a more significant 50 basis points in its next meeting but are generally anticipating a total of 125 basis points in cuts over the remaining meetings this year. A more accommodating monetary policy benefits gold by lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets.
Technically the first support level is at 2,470. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,430 and 2,400. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,500; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,530 and 2,550.

 

[zForex]

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.10.2024​

GBP/USD Falls as US Dollar Strengthens
GBP/USD extended its losing streak for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.3060 during the Asian session on Tuesday. The decline can be attributed to the strengthening US dollar, which has gained support following recent US labor data that has cast doubt on the likelihood of a more aggressive interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its September meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in at least a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. However, the chance of a 50 bps cut has slightly decreased to 29.0%, down from 30.0% a week ago.

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee noted on Friday that Fed officials seem to be aligning with market sentiment that a policy rate adjustment by the Fed is imminent, as reported by CNBC. In the UK, investors are eagerly awaiting the release of employment data for the quarter ending in July, scheduled for Tuesday. This labor market report is expected to significantly influence market expectations regarding the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate decisions for the rest of the year.

For GBP/USD, the initial support lies at 1.3040, followed by 1.3000 and 1.2950 below. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.3100, with subsequent levels at 1.3140 and 1.3190 if the pair breaks above this resistance.

Post automatically merged: Sep 10, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.10.2024​

EUR/USD Rebounds Slightly, USD Strength Persists
The EUR/USD pair has slightly rebounded from a one-week low, trading around the 1.1030-1.1025 range during the Asian session on Tuesday, briefly ending a two-day losing streak. Any significant appreciation still appears limited due to the ongoing US Dollar (USD) strength. Following the release of a mixed US jobs report on Friday, investors have scaled back their expectations for a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. This shift has bolstered the Greenback for the third consecutive day, bringing it closer to the monthly peak reached last week, which acts as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair. The euro's relative weakness is also attributed to rising market expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) may cut interest rates again in September, given declining inflation in the Eurozone. This potential for additional ECB easing might further cap the EUR/USD pair, although the downside is expected to be limited ahead of key data and central bank events later this week. The latest US consumer inflation figures are set to be released on Wednesday, followed by the US Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. These reports will be crucial in shaping market expectations for the Fed's rate cut decision later this month and will influence USD demand. Additionally, the ECB's policy decision on Thursday will provide a new direction for the EUR/USD pair.

The first support level is at 1.1030 for the EUR/USD pair. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.1000 and 1.0950. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.1060; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.1100 and 1.1150.

 

[zForex]

EUR/USD Analysis by zForex Research Team - 09.11.2024

EUR/USD Rebounds as Dollar Weakens Ahead of US CPI Data
EUR/USD ended its losing streak for the last three days and traded around 1.1050 during Wednesday’s Asian session. This rebound is attributed to a weakening US Dollar (USD) ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, due to be released later in North American trading hours. The CPI report could provide new insights into the potential scale of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate cut this September. The US Dollar is facing headwinds as US Treasury yields continue to decline. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the USD's strength against six major currencies, paused its three-day winning streak, trading around 101.40. At the time of writing, the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields are at 3.57% and 3.62%, respectively. Last week’s labor market report increased uncertainty regarding the likelihood of a substantial rate cut by the Fed. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are expecting at least a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut in September, though the probability of a 50 bps cut has slightly decreased to 31.0%, down from 38.0% the previous week. In contrast, the Euro has faced downward pressure following recent German inflation data. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) reflected a 2.0% increase compared to the same period last year in August, aligning with expectations, while the monthly index fell by 0.2%, also in line with forecasts. Similarly, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained steady at 1.9% compared to the same month last year for August. Looking ahead, traders expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to lower interest rates to 4.0% by implementing a 25 basis point cut at its policy meeting on Thursday.
In the pair, the first support level is at 1.1015. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.1000 and 1.0950. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.1060; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.1100 and 1.1150.

Post automatically merged: Sep 12, 2024

Gold Analysis by zForex Research Team - 09.11.2024

Gold Prices Hold Firm Ahead of US Inflation Report
On Wednesday, gold prices held steady at around $2,520 per ounce as investors awaited the US inflation report later in the day for indications of the Federal Reserve’s potential rate cut. The previous week’s jobs report offered limited clarity, showing fewer job additions than expected while the unemployment rate edged lower. The annual inflation rate in the US is projected to decelerate for a fifth consecutive month to 2.6% in August, down from 2.9% in July, with the monthly inflation rate expected to hold steady at 0.2%. Market expectations now indicate a 67% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at next week’s Fed meeting, with a 33% chance of a 50 basis point reduction, according to the CME FedWatch tool. A less restrictive monetary policy tends to benefit gold by lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets. Additionally, traders are keeping a close eye on the first debate between US presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in anticipation of the November election.
Technically the first support level is at 2,510. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,495 and 2,470. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,530; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,550 and 2,585.

Post automatically merged: Sep 12, 2024

Daily Analysis by zForex Research Team - 09.12.2024

Inflation Concerns, Rate Cut Expectations, and Currency Movements
The EUR/USD struggled near the 1.1000 level on Thursday with inflation concerns and an expected 25 basis point ECB rate cut due to cooling inflation, with the German CPI hitting a three-year low. The US dollar gained modestly after the Fed’s mixed inflation report, supporting Treasury yields and the USD Index. In Japan, the yen weakened to 142.5 per dollar, though it remained strong following signals from the BoJ of gradual rate hikes. Gold held steady at $2,510 as markets now see an 85% chance of a Fed rate cut next week. GBP/USD traded around 1.3045, pressured by soft UK GDP data, while silver climbed toward $29 amid expectations of central bank rate cuts and strong demand in China and the renewable energy sector.

Post automatically merged: Sep 12, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis by zForex Research Team - 09.12.2024

GBP/USD Falls on UK Economic Concerns
The GBP/USD pair is currently under pressure and is trading near 1.3045 as the markets react to the latest US inflation data. Economic reports released during the European session have further weighed on the pound. While headline inflation decreased, the annual core Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding volatile food and energy prices, held steady at 3.2% in August, matching expectations. However, both the monthly CPI and core CPI increased by 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, surpassing market forecasts. This has led traders to lower expectations for a 50-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the market now pricing in an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point cut. The GBP's weakness was exacerbated by reports of soft Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures during the European session. Nevertheless, leading indicators suggest a potential rebound in UK economic activity. This outlook implies that the Bank of England is unlikely to implement a rate cut larger than the anticipated 50 basis points by year-end, which could offer some support for the pound.
For GBP/USD, the initial support lies at 1.3040, followed by 1.3000 and 1.2950 below. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.3100, with subsequent levels at 1.3140 and 1.3190 if the pair breaks above this resistance.

Post automatically merged: Sep 12, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis by zForex Research Team - 09.12.2024

EUR/USD Struggles on Inflation Concerns
The EUR/USD pair struggled to gain momentum during the Asian session on Thursday, trading within a narrow range just above the 1.1000 psychological level, which is a four-week low reached the previous day. The ECB is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, given signs of cooling inflation in the Eurozone. This expectation was reinforced by data showing that the German Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to its lowest level in over three years in August, hitting the ECB's 2% target. This cooling inflation has weakened the euro, contributing to headwinds for the EUR/USD pair on modest strength in the US dollar. The US CPI report released on Wednesday showed overall easing in consumer prices, but the core CPI indicated persistent underlying inflation, dampening hopes for a larger rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week. This has led to a rise in US Treasury bond yields and a boost in the USD Index (DXY), approaching its monthly peak. Despite this, markets have already factored in the likelihood of the Fed beginning its easing cycle with a 25 basis point rate cut at the September 17-18 FOMC meeting. This, combined with generally positive market sentiment, limits further gains for the safe-haven dollar and provides some support to the EUR/USD pair ahead of the key central bank event. Additionally, the upcoming release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) could offer new trading opportunities for the EUR/USD pair later in the North American session.
In the pair, the first support level is at 1.1015. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.1000 and 1.0950. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.1030; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.1060 and 1.1100.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis by zForex Research Team - 09.13.2024​

Fed Rate Cut Speculation Fuels Currency and Commodity Gains​

The EUR/USD pair extended its recovery, driven by a weaker US Dollar following soft Producer Price Index (PPI) data and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen approached year-to-date highs due to hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) regarding future rate hikes. Gold surged to an all-time high of $2,560 per ounce, supported by speculation of aggressive Fed action and softening US labor data. The GBP/USD pair also gained ground as dovish Fed expectations outweighed concerns over the Bank of England's potential rate cuts. Lastly, silver approached the $30 mark, supported by Fed rate cut expectations and demand prospects from China and the renewable energy sector.

Post automatically merged: Sep 16, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis by zForex Research Team - 09.13.2024​

EUR/USD Extends Recovery with USD Weakness​

The EUR/USD pair extended its recovery from the 1.1000 psychological level—a nearly four-week low—gaining traction for the second day on Friday. The momentum pushed the pair to the upper end of the weekly range, around the 1.1090 level during the Asian session, driven by broad-based weakness in the US Dollar (USD). The soft US Producer Price Index (PPI) report released on Thursday increased speculation that the Federal Reserve might implement a more significant interest rate cut next week. This, combined with a generally positive risk sentiment, has pushed the USD to a more than one-week low, providing support for the EUR/USD pair. The European Central Bank (ECB) also chose not to give specific interest rate guidance, which supports the euro and the currency pair.
In the pair, the first support level is at 1.1040. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.1015 and 1.0990. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.1090; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.1150 and 1.1200.

Post automatically merged: Sep 16, 2024

Gold Analysis by zForex Research Team - 09.13.2024​

Gold Hits Record High at $2,560 on Rate Cut Expectations​

Gold surged to approximately $2,560 per ounce on Friday, reaching a new all-time high amid a weaker dollar and declining bond yields. This rally was fueled by fresh economic data that heightened expectations for a more aggressive Federal Reserve response to upcoming interest rate cuts. Recent data showed an increase in initial jobless claims and a softening labor market, with weak payroll figures from August reinforcing this trend. Additionally, US producer prices rose slightly more than anticipated in August due to higher service costs, though the overall inflation trend still pointed toward easing. Markets are currently predicting a 59% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 41% chance of a 50 basis point reduction, according to the CME FedWatch tool. In Europe, the European Central Bank followed through with a 25 basis point rate cut as expected, reflecting increasing confidence among policymakers that inflation is on a sustained downward trajectory.

Technically the first support level is at 2,545. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,530 and 2,510. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,570; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,585 and 2,600.
2,510. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,495 and 2,470. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,530; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,550 and 2,585.

Post automatically merged: Sep 16, 2024

Daily Analysis by zForex Research Team - 09.13.2024​

Fed Rate Cut Bets Boost Markets, Euro Faces Headwinds​

This week, the EUR/USD pair opened positively, trading around 1.1090 as markets focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision, with a 59% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut. The ECB’s cautious stance with weak Eurozone growth could limit the euro's upside movement. The Japanese yen strengthened to 140.5, driven by the growing divergence between US and Japanese monetary policies, with the BoJ expected to hold rates but signal future hikes. Gold hit a record high near $2,590, supported by a weaker dollar and rising Fed rate cut expectations. The GBP/USD pair saw modest gains, benefiting from USD depreciation, but upcoming BoE and Fed decisions may influence its trajectory. Silver surged to a two-month high of $31, fueled by speculation of a larger Fed rate cut, while weak Chinese economic data tempered demand concerns for metals.

 

[zForex]

GBP/USD Analysis by zForex Research Team - 09.16.2024​

GBP/USD Sees Modest Gains with Low Trading Volumes​

The GBP/USD pair saw some dip-buying, supported by lower trading volumes due to holidays in China and Japan. The pair is trading around 1.3135-1.3140, marking a modest gain of over 0.10% and nearing a one-week high from Friday, driven by ongoing USD devaluation.

The British Pound is benefiting from expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will make fewer policy changes compared to the Federal Reserve in the coming year. However, market anticipation of further BoE rate cuts, following weak UK wage growth and stagnant GDP for July, may limit the pair’s bullish momentum.

Traders are cautious before key central bank meetings, with the Fed's decision on Wednesday and the BoE's on Thursday, both likely to shape the GBP/USD pair's future. Despite this uncertainty, broader market conditions favor USD bears, suggesting potential for the pair to continue rebounding from last week's low at the 1.3000 psychological level.

For GBP/USD, initial support is at 1.3100, followed by 1.3050 and 1.3000. On the upside, resistance begins at 1.3165, with further levels at 1.3215 and 1.3265.

Post automatically merged: Sep 16, 2024

Yen Analysis by zForex Research Team - 09.16.2024​

Yen Strengthens on Diverging Monetary Policies​

On Monday, the Japanese yen strengthened to around 140.5 in light holiday trading, nearing its highest level since July 2023 due to a growing divergence in monetary policies between Japan and the US. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week but may signal a potential rate hike as early as October. BoJ board member Naoki Tamura recently suggested short-term rates should rise to 1% by fiscal 2026 to consistently reach the 2% inflation target. Similarly, BoJ board member Junko Nakagawa indicated that rates will continue to rise if economic and inflation trends align with projections.

Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates this week for the first time in four years, with markets anticipating a larger 50 basis point reduction.

Technically, resistance for the yen stands at 140.50, with potential targets at 141.00 and 142.00. On the downside, support begins at 140.00, with further levels at 139.40 and 139.00.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis by zForex Research Team - 09.17.2024​

Global Markets Brace for Fed Rate Decision, Dollar and Metals React​

Markets are on edge ahead of the Federal Reserve's highly anticipated interest rate decision. The EUR/USD dipped to 1.1125, reflecting a modest recovery in the US Dollar as traders await key US Retail Sales data and the possibility of a significant 50 basis point rate cut. In Japan, the Yen held steady near its strongest levels in 13 months, driven by diverging monetary policies between the US and Japan, with the Bank of Japan potentially signaling future rate hikes. Gold maintained its strength near $2,580 per ounce, supported by Fed rate cut expectations, while silver continued its upward trajectory, trading at $30.80 ahead of the Fed’s decision. The GBP/USD consolidated gains above 1.3200, with the British Pound benefiting from the dollar's weakness and speculation of a slower rate-cutting pace by the Bank of England.

Post automatically merged: Sep 18, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis by zForex Research Team - 09.17.2024​

EUR/USD Dips as USD Recovers Ahead of Fed Rate Decision
The EUR/USD pair is trading lower around 1.1125 as the US dollar (USD) showed a modest recovery during Tuesday's Asian session. Traders are preparing for US Retail Sales data later today, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday being the main event. The Fed's two-day meeting, starting Tuesday, will be closely watched to see if the central bank opts for a 50 basis points (bps) cut or a smaller 25 bps reduction. Markets are increasingly betting on a 50 bps cut, with a 67% probability priced in, up from 50% on Friday, according to CME FedWatch Tool. Such a significant rate cut could support the USD and impact the EUR/USD pair. Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the second time this year. ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks indicated that further easing may be on the table but should be approached cautiously due to ongoing inflation risks. ECB policymaker Gabriel Makhlouf also emphasized a data-driven approach to future monetary decisions. Investors are awaiting Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for further direction. If inflation data exceeds expectations, it could strengthen the Euro (EUR) against the USD.

In the pair, the first support level is at 1.1120. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.1100 and 1.1050. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.1150; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.1200 and 1.1250.

Post automatically merged: Sep 18, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis by zForex Research Team - 09.17.2024​

GBP/USD Consolidates Gains Amid Fed Rate Cut Expectations
During Tuesday's Asian session, the GBP/USD pair traded slightly above 1.3200, consolidating its recent gains from its highest level in a week. Investors are holding off ahead of the Fed's two-day FOMC meeting starting Tuesday and the BoE policy update on Thursday. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday, with a 67% probability priced in, which has kept US Treasury yields low and the USD weak. This supports the GBP/USD pair. The GBP benefits from expectations that the BoE will cut rates more slowly than the Fed, though further BoE cuts are anticipated following weak UK wage growth and flat GDP data. With no major UK data on Tuesday, GBP/USD will be influenced by USD movements and US Retail Sales data later in the day. Caution is advised for traders.

For GBP/USD, the initial support lies at 1.3190, followed by 1.3110 and 1.3080 below. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.3215, with subsequent levels at 1.3265 and 1.3300 if the pair breaks above this resistance.

Post automatically merged: Sep 18, 2024

Daily Analysis by zForex Research Team - 09.18.2024​

Markets Await Fed Rate Decision, Driving Volatility in Currencies and Commodities
Global financial markets are bracing for key monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan this week. The EUR/USD gained strength, trading around 1.1125 as investors anticipate a potential 50-basis-point rate cut by the Fed. The Japanese yen also strengthened, recovering to 141.6 per dollar amid expectations for both U.S. and Japanese monetary decisions. Gold held steady near record highs at $2,570 per ounce, while silver retreated slightly from its two-month peak, as traders await further clarity from the Fed’s rate cut decision. Meanwhile, the British pound edged higher ahead of UK inflation data and the BoE policy meeting, with expectations that the BoE will maintain rates at 5% for now.

Post automatically merged: Sep 18, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis by zForex Research Team - 09.18.2024​

EUR/USD Gains Ahead of Fed Decision and Eurozone Inflation Data
The EUR/USD pair is trading stronger around 1.1125 during the Asian session on Wednesday, supported by rising expectations of a deeper rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Key highlights for the day include the Eurozone’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data and the Fed’s monetary policy meeting. Market sentiment remains divided on whether the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points (bps). Futures for the Fed funds rate now indicate nearly a 65% chance of a 50 bps cut at the September meeting, up from 45% last Friday, according to LSEG. Boris Kovacevic, a global macro strategist at Convera in Vienna, noted, "If they opt for a 50 bps cut, it may suggest the Fed has information that investors lack, indicating that recession risks could be greater than currently anticipated. "In economic data, U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rose by 0.1% month-over-month in August, following a revised 1.1% increase in July, and exceeding expectations of a 0.2% decline, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Additionally, industrial production jumped by 0.8% in August, rebounding from a 0.6% decline in July and surpassing the consensus estimate of 0.2%. Meanwhile, less dovish guidance from European Central Bank (ECB) officials is bolstering the Euro against the dollar. ECB policymakers have emphasized that future monetary policy decisions will remain data-dependent. Investors are also awaiting the Eurozone HICP inflation data which is due later today. The headline HICP is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 2.2% for August, while the core HICP is estimated to rise by 2.8% in the same period.

In the pair, the first support level is at 1.1100. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.1050 and 1.1000. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.1150; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.1200 and 1.1250.

 

[zForex]

Gold Analysis by zForex Research Team - 09.18.2024​

Gold Holds Firm Ahead of Anticipated Fed Rate Cut
Gold held steady at around $2,570 per ounce on Wednesday, remaining close to record highs amid a weaker dollar ahead of the highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The FOMC's policy meeting lasting for two days concludes later today, with the Fed expected to announce its first rate cut since 2020. Fed fund futures indicate a growing expectation for a 50-basis-point cut, with a 65% probability priced in, while the likelihood of a smaller 25-basis-point reduction stands at 35%. On Tuesday, gold saw a slight decline as U.S. retail sales rose by 0.1% in August, contrary to forecasts of a 0.2% drop, following a revised 1.1% increase in July. This suggests relatively strong consumer spending. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is anticipated to keep UK rates unchanged on Thursday, while the Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its rates on Friday but may signal a willingness to hike if economic forecasts are met.

Technically the first support level is at 2,550. If this level is breached, the next support levels to watch will be 2,525 and 2,500. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,585; if this level is surpassed, the next target levels will be 2,600 and 2,620.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.19.2024​

Fed’s Surprise Rate Cut Mixes Economic Data in Global Markets​

The Federal Reserve’s unexpected 50 basis point rate cut continues to reverberate across global markets. EUR/USD initially surged to monthly highs before pulling back to around 1.1120 as the Fed's less dovish forward guidance limited losses for the US Dollar. The Japanese yen weakened as investors weighed the Fed’s cautious approach and anticipated rate hikes from the Bank of Japan. Meanwhile, gold climbed above $2,570 per ounce, supported by expectations of further rate cuts and its appeal as a safe-haven asset. GBP/USD struggled to gain momentum, hovering around 1.3150, as expectations of a slower rate-cutting cycle by the Bank of England provided support. Silver rebounded to $31 as traders focused on upcoming economic data, including US unemployment figures and China's loan prime rate.

 

[zForex]

EUR/USD Analysis by zForex Research Team - 09.19.2024​

EUR/USD Eases After Fed Rate Cut, Focus Shifts to US and ECB Data​

The EUR/USD pair is trading flat in the early European session on Thursday, having initially risen to monthly highs of 1.1189 following a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The pair has since eased back to around 1.1120. On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) initiated its easing cycle by lowering the Fed funds target range by 50 basis points (bps) to 4.75%-5.00%. However, the Fed's forward guidance was less dovish than anticipated, which helped limit losses for the US Dollar (USD). Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted, “it feels to me that the neutral rate is probably significantly higher than it was pre-pandemic.” The median long-term interest rate forecast was adjusted to 2.9% from 2.8%, with seven participants now projecting the long-term rate at or above 3.25%. The median unemployment projection for the end of 2024 was revised to 4.4%, up from 4.0% in June. Powell emphasized that the labor market has normalized, and a further slowdown is not desired by policymakers. Data from Eurostat revealed that the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose by 2.2% year-over-year in August, matching expectations and the previous reading. Core HICP inflation held steady at 2.8% compared to the same period last year, matching forecasts. ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel stated that Eurozone inflation is still higher than desired, indicating that interest rates need to remain sufficiently elevated to address price pressures. Looking ahead, ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel is scheduled to speak later in the day. On the US economic front, weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Existing Home Sales data will be released.

In the pair, the first support level is at 1.1100. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.1050 and 1.1000. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.1150; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.1200 and 1.1250.

Post automatically merged: Sep 19, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.19.2024​

Gold Prices Climb After Fed's Surprise 50 bps Rate Cut​

Gold prices climbed above $2,570 per ounce on Thursday after pulling back from record highs in the previous session. This rise comes as markets digest the Federal Reserve's recent decision. On Wednesday, the Fed announced its first interest rate cut since early 2020, implementing a surprising 50 basis point reduction to combat softening inflation and a potential slowdown in the labor market. Fed officials indicated that the benchmark rate could drop by another half percentage point by year-end. This move is expected to boost demand for gold by lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. However, during a press conference, Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the Fed is not rushing to ease monetary policy and noted that the dot plot projections for the federal funds rate should not be interpreted as a definitive policy plan.

Technically the first support level is at 2,550. If this level is breached, the next support levels to watch will be 2,525 and 2,500. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,585; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,600 and 2,620.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.20.2024​

Market Reactions Intensify as Fed, BOJ, and ECB Shape Economic Outlook​

The EUR/USD trades positively around 1.1165, supported by a weakening US Dollar after the Federal Reserve's unexpected 50 basis point rate cut. Focus now shifts to ECB President Lagarde’s speech for further guidance. The Japanese yen strengthens toward 142 per dollar following the BOJ's decision to maintain its policy rate, as markets anticipate further hikes amid rising inflation. Gold remains near record highs around $2,590, benefiting from safe-haven demand fueled by geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the Fed’s rate cut. GBP/USD holds near 1.3300, supported by the Bank of England’s decision to maintain its rates while continuing to reduce its government bond holdings. Silver rises to $31.10 per ounce as the Fed’s rate cut boosts demand for non-yielding assets, with growing expectations for further rate cuts by the end of 2024.

Post automatically merged: Sep 23, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.20.2024​

EUR/USD Trades Positively Ahead of ECB President Lagarde's Speech​

The EUR/USD pair is trading positively for the third consecutive day, hovering around 1.1165 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The decline in the US Dollar (USD), following the Federal Reserve's unexpected 50 basis point (bps) rate cut at its September meeting, supports the major pair. Later today, ECB President Lagarde's speech will be critical for the EUR/USD outlook.

In the pair, the first support level is at 1.1150. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.1100 and 1.1050. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.1175; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.1200 and 1.1250.

Post automatically merged: Sep 23, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.20.2024​

GBP/USD Holds Near 1.3300 as BoE Decision Boosts Pound​

The GBP/USD pair maintains a positive trajectory for the third consecutive day on Friday, trading around the 1.3300 level during the Asian session, just below its peak since March 2022 reached the previous day. The British Pound (GBP) continues to receive support from the Bank of England's (BoE) decision on Thursday to keep interest rates steady while reducing its stock of government bonds by an additional £100 billion over the next 12 months. In contrast, the US Dollar (USD) remains near its lowest point since July 2023 due to expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which has contributed to the upward momentum for the GBP/USD pair.

For GBP/USD, the initial support lies at 1.3300, followed by 1.3250 and 1.3200 below. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.3350, with subsequent levels at 1.3400 and 1.3450 if the pair breaks above this resistance.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.23.2024​

Global Markets React to Fed Rate Cut, Yen Weakens, and Gold Holds Steady​

The markets experienced significant movement this week across multiple assets. The dollar index stabilized around 100.8 after the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut, the first in four years. Fed Chair Powell emphasized that further cuts would not be the norm, leaving investors eager for upcoming economic data such as US PMI, PCE prices, and speeches from Fed officials. Meanwhile, the yen weakened past 144 per dollar due to the Bank of Japan's continued dovish stance, and the pound held steady at 1.33, awaiting key PMI data that could shape the central bank's policy direction. In commodities, gold prices remained stable above $2,600 with geopolitical tensions and expectations of further rate cuts, while silver pulled back slightly to $30.90 after a strong recent performance.

Post automatically merged: Sep 23, 2024

Yen Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.23.2024​

Yen Weakens as BoJ Maintains Dovish Stance​

The Japanese yen weakened past 144 per dollar in thin holiday trading on Monday, continuing its decline from last week on concerns that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is in no rush to raise interest rates. Last week, the yen dropped over 2% after the BoJ unanimously decided to maintain its policy rate at 0.25%, in line with expectations. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda noted “some weakness” in the economy during his post-meeting press conference, adopting a slightly more dovish tone than in previous statements. His comments diminished the likelihood of a rate hike in October, though a move in December remains anticipated. Ueda also highlighted that the economy is progressing steadily towards a modest recovery, asserting that the central bank will continue to adjust its easing measures if economic and price forecasts are met. Additionally, the yen faced external pressure from a rally in risk assets, spurred by the Federal Reserve’s significant rate cut, which improved the global economic outlook.

In USDJPY, the first support is at 143.60, with subsequent levels at 142.00 and 140.45 below that. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 144.60, followed by 145.90 and 146.50 if this level is breached.

Post automatically merged: Sep 23, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.23.2024​

Geopolitical Turmoil Supports Gold Prices​

Gold prices were steady at around $2,620 per ounce on Monday, maintaining fresh record highs after surpassing the $2,600 mark last week. This stability was supported by expectations of further interest rate cuts and rising geopolitical tensions, which increased the appeal of bullion. Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate cut in four years, reducing the rate by 50 basis points and indicating that an additional half percentage point cut could occur by year-end. Market participants are now focused on upcoming economic data, including PCE prices, personal income, and spending reports, as well as speeches from several Fed officials, for insights into the interest rate outlook. Meanwhile, gold's safe-haven status was maintained by escalating tensions in the Middle East, with Israel and Hezbollah intensifying their cross-border attacks on Sunday and exchanging hostile threats amid a rapidly worsening situation.

The first support is at 2600 for gold, with the next levels at 2550 and 2530 below. Above, the initial resistance is at 2630, followed by 2650 and 2700 if this level is surpassed.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.24.2024​

US Economy Outperforms Eurozone, Dollar Benefits​

The dollar index remained strong, supported by a sharp decline in the euro due to disappointing PMI reports from the Eurozone, while US private sector data highlighted substantial services activity. Similarly, the Japanese yen stabilized around 143.6 per dollar, pausing its decline ahead of comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who adopted a more dovish tone than expected. Gold prices surged to $2,630 per ounce, benefiting from expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts and heightened geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, the pound continued its upward momentum, trading at 1.3360, with upcoming US economic data set to influence the GBP/USD pair. Silver, trading at $30.80, was impacted by recession concerns, with US data expected to shape its future trajectory.

Post automatically merged: Sep 25, 2024

Dollar Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.24.2024​

Dollar Index Surges as Eurozone Struggles​

The dollar index held onto its recent gains, trading around 101 on Tuesday, buoyed by a sharp decline in the euro after disappointing September PMI reports from the Eurozone, Germany, and France. In contrast, data released on Monday showed that the US private sector remained strong, with services activity offsetting a deeper contraction in manufacturing. Atlanta Fed President Bostic remarked that progress on inflation and the cooling labor market had occurred "much more quickly" than expected, supporting the argument for "normalizing monetary policy sooner." Similarly, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari suggested that future policy adjustments would likely involve smaller steps unless the data showed significant changes. Markets are now awaiting the release of the PCE report later this week for further insight into the interest rate outlook.

In the currency pair, initial resistance is expected at 1.1150, followed by 1.1200 and 1.1250 if breached. On the downside, the first support is at 1.1150, with additional support levels at 1.1070 and 1.1015.

Post automatically merged: Sep 25, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.24.2024​

Gold Prices Surge as Fed Signals Further Rate Cuts​

Gold was trading around $2,630 per ounce on Tuesday, remaining at record highs as expectations for less Gold traded around $2,630 per ounce on Tuesday, holding at record highs as expectations for a less restrictive monetary policy and increasing geopolitical tensions fueled demand for safe-haven assets. The recent notable rate cut by the Federal Reserve has made gold more attractive, with signs pointing to another potential 50 basis point cut by year-end.

Atlanta Fed President Bostic commented that inflation and the cooling labor market have improved faster than foreseen, raising the possibility of an imminent monetary policy normalization. Traders are now closely watching the upcoming PCE report and speeches from Fed officials to estimate the central bank's next moves. Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset has been reinforced by escalating tensions in the Middle East, especially following Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon, marking the most intense conflict since the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war.

For gold, the first support level is at $2,600, with further support at $2,550 and $2,530. On the upside, the initial resistance is at $2,635, followed by $2,650 and $2,700 if breached.

Post automatically merged: Sep 25, 2024

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.25.2024​

Precious Metals Surge, Dollar Slips as Fed Signals Monetary Easing​

Global markets are reacting to rising expectations of further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, as the dollar continues to weaken and precious metals surge. Gold reached record highs, driven by monetary easing prospects and escalating geopolitical risks, while silver remains near recent peaks. The EUR/USD pair is trading positively, buoyed by Fed easing bets and anticipation of Eurozone inflation data. The yen held steady as the Bank of Japan signaled caution on rate hikes. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD remains stable as traders await key US economic data, which could shape upcoming Fed decisions.

Post automatically merged: Sep 25, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.25.2024​

EUR/USD Eyes Resistance Levels as Dollar Declines on Fed Outlook​

The dollar index continued its recent decline, trading around 100.3 on Wednesday, hovering near its lowest levels since July 2023 as traders increased their bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts following weak consumer sentiment data. Markets are anticipating that the Fed will cut rates by an additional 200 basis points before reaching its terminal rate next year, which loosely aligns with the Fed's dot plot. Investors are now focused on new home sales data on Wednesday, weekly jobless claims on Thursday, and the highly anticipated PCE report on Friday for further guidance on the economic outlook.

In the EUR/USD pair, the initial resistance will be at 1.1220 followed by 1.1250 and 1.1300 if this level is surpassed. On the downside, the first support is at 1.1150, with subsequent supports at 1.1100 and 1.1050 below that.

Post automatically merged: Sep 25, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.25.2024​

GBP/USD Holds Steady at 1.3400 as US Data Looms​

The pound started Wednesday trading at 1.3400. While the news flow from the UK has been relatively quiet this week, important data releases are scheduled for today and tomorrow from the US. These figures will provide clues about the timing and magnitude of the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate cuts, which are likely to introduce volatility into the GBP/USD pair.

In GBP/USD, the first support is at 1.3360, with subsequent levels at 1.3300 and 1.3250 below that. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 1.3430, followed by 1.3470 and 1.3500 if this level is surpassed.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.26.2024​

Market Shifts on Fed Speculation and BoJ Caution (09.26.2024)​

The financial markets faced mixed movements on Thursday as key indicators and events shaped trading. The dollar index held steady around 100.9 after rebounding on Wednesday, with investors awaiting US economic data and potential impacts on Federal Reserve rate cuts. The yen dipped to a three-week low at 144.8, reflecting caution from the Bank of Japan over inflation risks and the yen's effect on the economy. Gold remained strong near $2,660 per ounce, supported by expectations of further Fed rate cuts and Middle East tensions enhancing its appeal. GBP/USD opened at 1.3350, with expected volatility before US data release potentially influencing the rate cut cycle. Silver, trading around 32.20, faced downward pressure amid global tensions and anticipated US economic reports, highlighting its sensitivity to recession concerns. Across these assets, various support and resistance levels indicate potential trading shifts.

Post automatically merged: Sep 30, 2024

Dollar Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.26.2024​

Dollar Index Pauses After Inflation Fears​

The dollar index remained around 100.9 on Thursday after rebounding in the previous session, as investors awaited the latest weekly jobless claims report for insights into the labor market's condition. Additionally, data on August durable goods orders and the final reading of second-quarter GDP are scheduled for release later today. On Wednesday, the index gained 0.6% as Treasury yields increased amid renewed inflation concerns and uncertainty over potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. This development aligns with Fed Governor Bowman's comments about the need for a cautious approach to policy changes, considering the inflation risks following the recent 50 basis point cut. The market's perspective on inflation will be further clarified on Friday with the release of the PCE price indices.

For the EUR/USD currency pair, initial resistance is expected at 1.1220, followed by 1.1250 and 1.1300 if that level is breached. On the downside, the first support is at 1.1150, with additional supports at 1.1100 and 1.1050.

Post automatically merged: Sep 30, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.26.2024​

GBP/USD Holds Near 1.3350​

The GBP/USD opened at 1.3350 on Thursday morning. Volatility is expected to rise throughout the day before the US growth and unemployment data, which could potentially slow down the rate cut cycle compared to the Federal Reserve.

For GBP/USD, the first support level is at 1.3330, followed by 1.3300 and 1.3250. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 1.3370, with additional levels at 1.3400 and 1.3470 if this resistance is surpassed.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.27.2024​

Safe-Haven Assets Surge Amid Fed Outlook and Geopolitical Risks​

Global markets are preparing for the upcoming U.S. PCE report, with the dollar stabilizing ahead of this key inflation measure. The EUR/USD pair is gaining momentum as risk currencies strengthen, while the yen has weakened following Tokyo's easing inflation data and the Bank of Japan's cautious approach. Gold remains near record highs, supported by safe-haven demand amid economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, while silver edges closer to its 2023 peak as China's rate cuts improve market sentiment. The pound holds steady, with traders eyeing the impact of U.S. inflation data on the dollar index, which could influence GBP/USD movements.

Post automatically merged: Sep 30, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.27.2024​

Gold Holds Near Record Highs as Markets Await Key US PCE Report​

Gold hovered around $2,670 per ounce on Friday, maintaining record levels as markets awaited the crucial U.S. PCE report for insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation will be closely watched later today, especially after strong economic data on Thursday raised doubts about a rapid rate-cutting cycle. U.S. GDP growth was confirmed at an annualized 3% for the second quarter, with jobless claims unexpectedly falling and durable goods orders remaining stable. Nevertheless, fed funds futures suggest a 49% likelihood of another 50 basis point cut in November. Meanwhile, China's new fiscal stimulus and rising tensions in the Middle East are further enhancing gold’s appeal. For the week, bullion is set to record its third consecutive gain.

In gold, the first support is at 2630, with subsequent levels at 2600 and 2550 below that. Above, the initial resistance is at 2685, followed by 2700 and 2730 if this level is surpassed.

Post automatically merged: Sep 30, 2024

Dollar Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.27.2024​

Risk Currencies Strengthen as Dollar Stabilizes Before Key US Inflation Report​

The dollar index stabilized around 100.7 on Friday as traders prepared for the upcoming PCE price index report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. On Thursday, the index faced pressure as the yuan and other risk currencies strengthened following China’s commitment to increase fiscal and monetary support. Additionally, recent data revealed that weekly jobless claims fell to a four-month low, indicating a robust labor market. GDP growth was confirmed at 3% for Q2, with Q1 figures revised higher, and full-year growth estimates for both 2023 and 2022 also increased. Furthermore, durable goods orders remained flat last month, defying expectations for a significant 2.6% decline. Markets are currently divided on whether the Fed will implement another 50 basis point rate cut in November or choose a more modest 25 basis point reduction.

In the EUR/USD pair, the initial resistance will be at 1.1220 followed by 1.1250 and 1.1300 if this level is surpassed. On the downside, the first support is at 1.1150, with subsequent supports at 1.1100 and 1.1050 below that.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.30.2024​

Risk Currencies Gain While Markets Await Powell’s Speech and Key Inflation Data​

The EUR/USD pair remained stable, trading around 1.1160 as traders anticipated German consumer inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech for further direction. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen held steady near 142.3 after a strong rally following dovish comments from Japan’s new prime minister and stronger retail sales data. Gold hovered near $2,650 per ounce, supported by growing expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as well as rising geopolitical risks. The British pound traded higher at 1.3385, benefiting from speculation that the Bank of England may proceed with rate cuts more slowly than the Federal Reserve. Silver prices faced selling pressure around $31.55 as improved global risk sentiment and upcoming speeches from central bank officials, including Powell, fueled profit-taking.

Post automatically merged: Sep 30, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.30.2024​

EUR/USD Flat as Traders Await Powell's Speech and German CPI​

The EUR/USD pair is having difficulty building on Friday's modest recovery from the 1.1125-1.1120 support zone, starting the week quietly around 1.1160, showing little change for the day. Traders are eagerly anticipating the release of German consumer inflation data and a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for a new direction.

In the pair, the first support level is at 1.1150. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.1100 and 1.1050. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.1180; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.1200 and 1.1250.

Post automatically merged: Sep 30, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.30.2024​

Gold Holds Firm as Fed Rate Cut Speculation Boosts Demand​

Gold was trading around $2,650 per ounce on Monday, poised for its largest quarterly increase since early 2016. This surge is fueled by a growing belief that the Federal Reserve may implement additional rate cuts. Last week, both the PCE and core PCE price indices rose slightly by 0.1%, with the core index increasing less than the anticipated 0.2%. Meanwhile, personal spending has slowed, and income growth has unexpectedly dipped. Fed fund futures indicate that the market sees a 54% likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut in November. The potential for further rate reductions by the Fed, along with dovish stances from central banks worldwide, is boosting the attractiveness of holding non-yielding gold. Additionally, China’s new monetary stimulus and the increasing risk of broader conflict in the Middle East are further supporting this demand.

Technically, the first support level is at 2,650. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,630 and 2,600. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,665; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,685 and 2,700.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.01.2024​

Euro Weakness, Yen Slide, Gold Rallies​

Daily market analysis by zForex, 10.01.2024 - Euro Weakness, Yen Slide, Gold Rallies. The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure as it struggles to gain momentum, currently hovering around 1.1135-1.1140.
Traders are focused on upcoming Eurozone inflation data, which could shape expectations for the European Central Bank's next moves. Meanwhile, the yen continues to weaken against the dollar following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments, indicating a cautious approach to U.S. rate cuts.

Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have boosted gold prices, while the GBP/USD pair faces downward pressure due to a stronger dollar and comments from the Bank of England. Silver breaks above $31.35, resuming its bullish momentum after a two-day losing streak. Investors are keeping an eye on key support and resistance levels across these assets to gauge future market direction.

Post automatically merged: Oct 2, 2024

Euro Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.01.2024​

Euro Struggles as US Rate Cut Hopes Fade​

The EUR/USD pair is struggling to gain traction after retreating from a 14-month peak just above 1.1200. Currently trading around 1.1135-1.1140, it remains largely unchanged as traders await Eurozone inflation data. The flash Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September is expected to show a drop below the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target, particularly following a decline in Germany's CPI to its lowest level since February 2021. A weaker Eurozone CPI would bolster expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at the ECB's upcoming meeting, while a stronger reading may have limited impact due to modest USD strength. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent hawkish remarks indicate only two more 25 basis point cuts this year if the economy performs as expected, prompting a reassessment of aggressive easing by the Fed. Additionally, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are supporting the safe-haven USD. Later in the North American session, traders will focus on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings data, along with speeches from influential FOMC members, which may impact USD demand and provide direction for the EUR/USD pair. However, repeated failures to hold above the 1.1200 mark suggest caution for bullish traders.
In the pair, the first support level is at 1.1100. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.1050 and 1.0990. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.1160; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.1200 and 1.1250.

Post automatically merged: Oct 2, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.01.2024​

UK Rate Cut Odds Decline with Fed's Stance​

The GBP/USD pair is struggling to gain traction around 1.3370 during Tuesday's Asian session, impacted by less dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, which have strengthened the dollar. Investors are now focused on the upcoming US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, as well as speeches from Fed officials Raphael Bostic and Lisa Cook. On the UK front, Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Megan Greene highlighted the risk of renewed inflation from a consumption-driven recovery but noted that further interest rate cuts are likely, as prices are “moving in the right direction.” Despite this, traders have recently reduced their expectations for a BoE rate cut in November.
For GBP/USD, the initial support lies at 1.3350, followed by 1.3300 and 1.3250 below. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.3400, with subsequent levels at 1.3430 and 1.3450 if the pair breaks above this resistance.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.02.2024​

Fed Rate Speculation Drives Currency and Commodity Markets​

The EUR/USD pair experiences mild gains around 1.1070 as Middle East tensions weigh on risk assets, with eyes on US ADP Employment data and potential Fed rate cuts.

The Japanese yen remains steady amid policy uncertainty and improved consumer confidence, while gold hovers near $2,660 on safe-haven demand due to escalating conflict in the region. GBP/USD stays subdued after recent losses, influenced by geopolitical risks and Bank of England policy signals. Silver trades within a narrow range below mid-$31.00s, lacking momentum to break higher. Key support and resistance levels across assets reflect market caution amidst rising global tensions and mixed economic data.

Post automatically merged: Oct 2, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.02.2024​

Rate Hike Expectations Weigh on Euro​

The EUR/USD pair is seeing modest gains, trading around 1.1070 during Wednesday’s Asian session. However, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may pressure risk-sensitive assets like the euro. Investors await the US ADP Employment Change data for September, due later today. Traders are also considering the possibility of a significant rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in November, particularly after Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated a gradual approach to lowering rates. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently anticipate a 37.4% chance of a 50 basis point cut in November and a 62.6% chance of a 25 basis point reduction.

Weak US economic data has weighed on the dollar, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI staying flat at 47.2 in September, below the expected 47.5, indicating continued contraction in manufacturing. In Europe, September inflation in the Eurozone eased to 1.8% year-on-year, falling below the ECB’s target and marking its lowest since April 2021. Despite these favorable inflation figures, the Eurozone economy remains under pressure, leading the ECB to cut rates to 3.50%, hinting at potential further reductions. Geopolitical risks, such as Iran’s launch of over 200 ballistic missiles at Israel and Israel’s promise of retaliation, could put downward pressure on the euro and stimulate safe-haven assets like the US dollar.

For the EUR/USD pair, the first support level stands at 1.1050, followed by 1.1010 and 1.0990 if breached. On the upside, resistance is at 1.1100, with further targets at 1.1130 and 1.1200 if surpassed.

Post automatically merged: Oct 2, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.02.2024​

Interest Rate Outlook Shape Pound's Trajectory​

GBP/USD is trading around 1.3280 during Wednesday's Asian session, remaining subdued after losses in the previous day. This decline is likely due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which are weighing on the risk-sensitive Pound Sterling (GBP). In the UK, Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Megan Greene warned that a consumption-driven recovery could trigger a new wave of inflation. However, she indicated that further interest rate cuts are probable as prices are "moving in the right direction." Greene also noted that the neutral interest rate has likely increased since the inflation shock, although she did not provide a specific figure. Traders are now looking forward to the US ADP Employment Change report and comments from Federal Reserve officials for additional insights, while the BoE’s Monetary Policy Report Hearings on Thursday will also be closely monitored.

For GBP/USD, the initial support lies at 1.3250, followed by 1.3200 and 1.3150 below. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.3315, with subsequent levels at 1.3375 and 1.3425 if the pair breaks above this resistance.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.03.2024​

Markets Weighed by Strong U.S. Labor Data and Geopolitical Tensions​

The EUR/USD pair experienced selling pressure, dropping to a three-week low as investors reassessed their expectations for Fed rate cuts following strong U.S. labor market data and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell. Meanwhile, the euro is under pressure due to falling inflation in the Eurozone and increasing speculation that the ECB may lower rates.

In contrast, the yen weakened to a one-month low against the dollar as Japanese officials signaled caution on further rate hikes, while stronger-than-expected U.S. job data supported the dollar. Gold remained near record highs, benefiting from safe-haven demand amid rising Middle East tensions, though stronger U.S. labor data limited gains. The British pound continued to decline amid safe-haven flows and cautious BoE policy, while silver pulled back after strong U.S. labor data raised expectations for another Fed rate cut. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East, however, limited the downside for precious metals.

Post automatically merged: Oct 3, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.03.2024​

Gold Holds Near Record Highs as Middle East Tensions Escalate​

On Thursday, gold was priced around $2,655 per ounce, staying near record highs amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, which boosted its appeal as a safe haven. Iran's missile attack on Israel prompted increased Israeli military action and threats of retaliation. However, strong US labor data this week limited gold’s gains, as it suggests the Federal Reserve may not need to pursue a more accommodative monetary policy. The ADP report showed more private-sector jobs created in September than expected, reinforcing a stronger labor market than anticipated at the start of Q3. Currently, markets estimate a 66% likelihood that the Fed will implement a modest 25 basis point rate cut in November, which could lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, a non-interest-bearing asset.

Technically the first support level is at 2,650. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,630 and 2,600. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,665; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,685 and 2,700.

Post automatically merged: Oct 3, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.03.2024​

GBP/USD Extends Losses Amid Safe Haven Flows and BoE Caution​

The GBP/USD pair extended its losses for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.3200 during the Asian session on Thursday, as safe haven flows amid rising Middle East tensions exert downward pressure. The Bank of England (BoE) has been promoting a cautious approach to rate cuts, given persistent inflation in the services sector and strong economic growth. In its quarterly statement, the BoE's Financial Policy Committee noted that risks to UK financial stability have remained largely unchanged since June. BoE policymaker Megan Greene cautioned that a consumption-driven recovery could lead to renewed inflation, although she acknowledged that further rate cuts are likely, as prices are moving in the right direction.

For GBP/USD, the initial support lies at 1.3170, followed by 1.3110 and 1.3070 below. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.3220, with subsequent levels at 1.3250 and 1.3300 if the pair breaks above this resistance.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.04.2024​

Euro Falls as ECB Rate Cut Looms, Geopolitical Uncertainty Lifts Dollar (10.04.2024)​

The EUR/USD pair continued its decline, dropping to a three-week low as Eurozone inflation softened and expectations of an ECB rate cut grew.

Strong U.S. economic data, including higher ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change reports, bolstered the dollar, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provided safe haven demand for the USD. In Japan, the yen stabilized around 146.5, with officials cautioning against further rate hikes, while gold prices held steady near record highs due to ongoing geopolitical risks. The GBP/USD pair faced pressure ahead of the U.S. jobs report, while dovish BoE comments added to the bearish outlook. Silver prices neared $32.30, supported by strong buying momentum.

Post automatically merged: Oct 4, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.04.2024​

Euro Weakens as ECB Rate Cut Looms, US Data Boosts Dollar​

The EUR/USD pair has extended its losses for the sixth consecutive session, trading around 1.1030 during the Asian hours on Friday. A lower inflation reading in the Eurozone has heightened expectations for a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in October, which would mark the central bank's third reduction this year. Earlier this week, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices fell to 1.8% year-over-year in September, dipping below the ECB's 2% target and marking its lowest level since April 2021. Markets are currently pricing in a 95% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut this month. The risk-sensitive euro may encounter challenges as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affect market risk appetite. US President Joe Biden noted that the United States is in discussions with Israel regarding potential strikes on Iran's oil infrastructure. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned that Iran "will pay a heavy price" for its recent attack, which reportedly involved the launch of at least 180 ballistic missiles aimed at Israel, according to the BBC. The EUR/USD pair is depreciating as the US Dollar (USD) gains support from stronger-than-expected reports on US ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change, which undermine dovish expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy. The ISM Services PMI rose to 54.9 in September, up from 51.5 in August and exceeding market forecasts of 51.7. Meanwhile, the ADP US Employment Change report indicated an increase of 143,000 jobs in September, surpassing the anticipated 120,000.

In the pair, the first support level is at 1.1000. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.0970 and 1.0940. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.1050; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.1080 and 1.1100.

Post automatically merged: Oct 4, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.04.2024​

Gold Steady Amid Middle East Conflict, Strong US Data Limits Gains​

Gold remained close to $2,660 per ounce on Friday, holding at record levels as its safe-haven appeal was heightened by escalating geopolitical tensions. Markets are closely watching developments in the Middle East, particularly after US President Biden refrained from explicitly condemning the possibility of Israel targeting Iran. Additionally, Tel Aviv has pledged to retaliate against Iran and has increased military activity in Beirut amid its ongoing conflict with Hezbollah. Despite gold's strong performance, strong labor market data released earlier this week has limited its upward momentum, as it suggests less need for the Federal Reserve to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy. ISM data also revealed that US services activity grew at its fastest pace in over a year in September. Currently, markets estimate about a 65% chance that the Fed will choose to implement a modest 25 basis point rate cut in November. Investors are also awaiting the release of September jobs data later today for further insights.

Technically the first support level is at 2,660. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,640 and 2,620. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,675; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,685 and 2,700.