Daily Market Analysis By zForex

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.17.2024​

Yen Stabilizes, Dollar Under Pressure, and Gold Hits Record High​

The Japanese yen stabilized around 158.4, remaining close to its strongest levels in a month with concerns that authorities might intervene again to support the currency. Last week, the yen gained about 2% following the US inflation data, with Bank of Japan reports indicating that the government may have spent nearly 6 trillion yen on interventions on Thursday and Friday. On the monetary policy front, the BoJ is expected to announce plans to taper bond purchases and potentially raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting later this month. Additionally, the Reuters Tankan survey revealed that business sentiment among large manufacturers in Japan improved to a seven-month high in July, although confidence among non-manufacturers declined due to an uncertain economic outlook.

The dollar index remained around 104.2 on Wednesday, close to its lowest levels since April, pressured by expectations that the Federal Reserve may start cutting rates as early as September. On Tuesday, data revealed that US retail sales were unchanged in June, with a decline in auto sales balanced by increased activity in other sectors. Earlier this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that recent data "add somewhat to confidence" that inflation is on track to return to target and emphasized that the central bank won't wait until inflation hits 2% to cut rates. Fed's Beige Book on Wednesday, as well as housing starts and building permits data for June are awaited. The markets are almost certain that the Fed will implement a quarter-point rate cut in September, with two more reductions anticipated by the year's end. Additionally, the dollar has found some support from what analysts are calling the "Trump Trade" following a failed assassination attempt on the US presidential candidate.

Gold surged above $2,470 per ounce on Wednesday, hitting a new record high. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated on Monday that June's low inflation increased confidence in achieving the price growth target and stated that the central bank will not wait for inflation to reach 2% before initiating rate cuts. This sentiment was supported by Fed Governor Adriana Kugler on Tuesday, who expressed cautious optimism about inflation moving toward the target rate. Markets are fully expecting a rate cut at the Fed's September meeting, with CME's FedWatch Tool indicating traders are leaning toward three 25 basis point cuts rather than two this year. Additionally, expectations that other major central banks in Europe and Asia will also implement rate cuts have increased demand for precious metals in those regions.

Post automatically merged: Jul 17, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.17.2024​

EUR/USD: Resistance at 1.0920 and Support at 1.0890​

The first resistance level for the pair is 1.0920, and if this level is breached, the next levels to watch will be 1.0950 and 1.1000. On the downside, the first support is at 1.0890, and if this level is broken, the next support to monitor will be 1.0860 and 1.0830.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1000	1.09250	1.0920	1.0890	1.0860	1.0830

Post automatically merged: Jul 17, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.17.2024​

Gold Rises with Resistance at 2,482​

Gold started the day upward, with the first resistance level at 2,482. If this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,500 and 2,520. On the downside, the first support is at 2,460, and if this level is broken, the next supports to watch will be 2,445 and 2,430.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2520	2500	2482	2460	2445	2430

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.18.2024​

Market Outlook: Fed Officials Reinforce Rate Cut Confidence, Boosting Market Optimism​

Gold remained steady near $2,460 per ounce on Thursday, close to record highs amid optimism for a Fed rate cut in September. Fed Governor Waller and Fed Chair Powell reinforced confidence in an imminent rate cut, citing June's lower-than-expected inflation. Markets show a 98% chance of a September rate cut, with expectations for three 25 basis point cuts this year, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

The dollar index remained around 103.7 on Thursday, near a four-month low as traders bet on multiple Fed rate cuts this year. Dovish comments from Fed officials, including Powell, increased confidence in rate cuts before inflation hits 2%. Markets expect over 60 basis points of reductions this year. Investors are focused on US jobless claims data and the European Central Bank's policy decision.

The Australian dollar steadied around $0.673, halting its decline after stronger-than-expected June job figures, despite a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.1%. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to maintain rates in August, but inflationary pressures and a tight labor market could prompt another hike. The Aussie gained support from a weaker US dollar amid Fed rate cut expectations.

Post automatically merged: Jul 18, 2024

USD/JPY Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.18.2024​

USD/JPY Eyes Resistance at 156.90 Amidst Strong Uptrend​

Since breaking the rising channel from around 140.00, the first support level for USD/JPY will be 155.60. If this level is breached and maintained below, the next supports to watch will be 154.80 and 153.90. On the upside, the first resistance is at 156.90, and if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 157.30 and 158.00.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
158.00	157.30	156.90	155.60	154.80	153.90

Post automatically merged: Jul 18, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.18.2024​

Gold's Upward Movement Faces First Support at $2,460​

Gold started the day with an upward movement, with the first resistance level at 2,482. If this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,500 and 2,520. On the downside, the first support is at 2,460, and if this level is broken, the next supports to watch will be 2,445 and 2,430.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2520	2500	2482	2460	2445	2430

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.19.2024​

Markets Anticipate Multiple Fed Rate Cuts, Boosting Gold Prices​

Gold edged down to around $2,420 per ounce on Friday as the dollar strengthened on robust US economic data. Despite this, expectations for Fed rate cuts remained unchanged, with markets implying a 98% probability of a September rate cut. The dollar gained from better-than-expected manufacturing growth in the US Mid-Atlantic region, while an increase in weekly jobless claims was attributed to seasonal factors. Gold is still poised for its fourth consecutive weekly gain.
The Japanese yen stabilized around 157.3 per dollar after June's headline inflation held steady at 2.8% and core inflation rose to 2.6%. This uptick reinforced expectations that the Bank of Japan might consider raising rates at its meeting on July 30-31. Despite suspected government intervention pushing the yen to a 38-year low earlier in July, the yen is set for its second consecutive week of gains, up about 3%.
On Friday, the dollar index stayed above 104.2, recovering from a four-month low with support from strong US economic indicators. July's manufacturing activity in the Mid-Atlantic region surpassed expectations, driven by a rise in new orders. Despite higher-than-expected weekly jobless claims, sentiment on the labor market remained steady. ECB kept rates unchanged, with President Christine Lagarde indicating uncertainty for September. The dollar also strengthened against the New Zealand dollar amidst dovish sentiments in New Zealand.

Post automatically merged: Jul 19, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.19.2024​

EUR/USD Profit-Taking After ECB Holds Rates Steady​

The pair faced some profit-taking after the ECB kept rates unchanged and recent inflation data met expectations. The first support level is seen at 1.0865, with further levels below at 1.0810 and 1.0780. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 1.0900, followed by 1.0950 and 1.1000 if the pair moves above these levels.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1000	1.0950	1.0900	1.0865	1.0810	1.0780

Post automatically merged: Jul 19, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.19.2024​

Gold Starts Downward, Tests Resistance at 2,430​

Gold started the day with a downward movement, with the first resistance level at 2,430. If this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,475 and 2,500. On the downside, the first support is at 2,415, and if this level is broken, the next supports to watch will be 2,390 and 2,355.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2500	2475	2430	2415	2390	2355

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.22.2024​

Gold Rebounds to $2,410 on Weaker Dollar; Australian Dollar Hits Three-Week Low​

Gold climbed to around $2,410 per ounce on Monday, driven by a technical rebound after a nearly 2% decline in the previous session and bolstered by a weaker dollar. Last week, the precious metal faced downward pressure as the dollar strengthened on powerful manufacturing growth in the US Mid-Atlantic region in July, while an increase in weekly jobless claims was attributed to seasonal factors. Key indicators include the Q2 advance estimate for GDP growth, personal spending, income, and the June PCE price index. After President Joe Biden ended his reelection campaign, eyes turned to Vice President Kamala Harris.
The Australian dollar fell below $0.668, hitting its lowest level in three weeks as plummeting energy and metals prices put pressure on the currency. Given Australia’s heavy reliance on commodity exports, movements in commodity prices significantly impact the currency. The currency also faced downward pressure from a rebounding US dollar, despite ongoing expectations for potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. In contrast, the Australian dollar had outperformed its counterparts in early July on speculation that the central bank might raise rates again in August following a strong inflation report for May. June witnessed strong job additions in Australia, signaling tight labor market conditions, although the unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4.1% from 4%. Currently, markets are pricing in approximately a 20% probability of a rate hike by the central bank in August.
On Monday, the dollar index stabilized around 104.4, strengthened by news of President Joe Biden's decision to withdraw from the reelection race and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. Analysts indicated that Biden's exit is expected to have minimal impact on markets, with former President Donald Trump remaining the frontrunner for November's election. Last week, the dollar edged higher supported by robust US economic data. Despite this, the index has declined approximately 1.5% thus far in July, driven by easing inflation expectations reinforcing anticipations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September. Speculation also persists about further cuts before year-end.

Post automatically merged: Jul 22, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.22.2024​

EUR/USD Begins Week Positively: Resistance at 1.0900​

The EUR/USD pair started the week on a high note, with the first resistance at 1.0900. Above this level, the next resistances to observe are 1.0950 and 1.1000. On the downside, the initial support is at 1.0875, followed by 1.0845 and 1.0810 if it breaks below.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1000	1.0950	1.0900	1.0875	1.0845	1.0810

Post automatically merged: Jul 22, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.22.2024​

Gold Trades Sideways: Resistance at 2,430​

Gold started the week with a sideways movement, with the first resistance level at 2,430. If this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,475 and 2,500. On the downside, the first support is at 2,395, and if this level is broken, the next supports to watch will be 2,385 and 2,355.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2500	2475	2430	2395	2385	2355

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.23.2024​

Financial Markets Hold Steady Awaiting Fed Guidance and Economic Data​

Gold steadied around $2,400 per ounce on Tuesday after a four-session decline, with traders watching upcoming US economic data to gauge the Fed's stance on interest rates. Key indicators include the Q2 GDP estimate, personal spending and income figures, and the June PCE price index. Recent reports showing a drop in US headline inflation to 3% and core inflation to 3.3% have strengthened expectations for Fed rate cuts starting in September, now priced at 94%. Investors are also analyzing President Biden's decision to end his reelection campaign and endorse Vice President Harris.
The Japanese yen strengthened beyond 157 per dollar for the second consecutive session amid anticipation of a BOJ rate hike. Senior ruling party official Toshimitsu Motegi called for clearer BOJ communication on policy normalization. Prime Minister Kishida emphasized that policy normalization would bolster Japan's growth. The yen surged approximately 2% over two weeks, possibly influenced by suspected government intervention, supported by BOJ data indicating purchases of nearly 6 trillion yen on July 11-12. Recent data also revealed that Japan sold around $22 billion in US Treasuries in May to strengthen reserves for potential market operations
The dollar index stabilized around 104.2 as investors evaluated the evolving US political landscape after President Biden withdrew from the reelection race and endorsed Vice President Harris. Despite former President Trump's lead, market participants are reducing reliance on the "Trump trade." The Federal Reserve is anticipated to start rate cuts in September amidst subdued inflation, with expectations for two more reductions by year-end. Investors are focusing on upcoming US economic releases, including PMIs, GDP figures, and the PCE price index report. The dollar traded rangebound against most major currencies but gained against the Chinese yuan, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar after an unexpected PBoC rate cut.

Post automatically merged: Jul 23, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.23.2024​

EUR/USD Tests Resistance at 1.0900 Amid Uptrend​

The pair started the day on a positive note, with the first resistance seen at 1.0900. Above this level, subsequent resistances to monitor are 1.0950 and 1.1000. On the downside, the initial support is at 1.0875, followed by 1.0845 and 1.0810 if it breaks below.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1000	1.0950	1.0900	1.0875	1.0845	1.0810

Post automatically merged: Jul 23, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.23.2024​

Gold Starts Downward; Resistance at 2,430 and Support at 2,385​

Gold started the day with a downward movement, with the first resistance level at 2,430. If this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,475 and 2,500. On the downside, the first support is at 2,385, and if this level is broken, the next supports to watch will be 2,355 and 2,315.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2500	2475	2430	2385	2355	2315

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.24.2024​

Dollar Rises on Trump Trade Speculation, Gold Gains on Supply Concerns​

On Wednesday, the dollar index maintained its recent gains around 104.5, nearing two-week highs as investors awaited the latest US manufacturing and services activity data to measure economic health. The dollar was supported by expectations linked to the "Trump trade," which predicts potentially inflationary policies under a second Trump presidency. While former President Donald Trump continues to lead in polls ahead of the November election, Vice President Kamala Harris has been gaining momentum since starting her campaign in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Regarding monetary policy, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to initiate interest rate cuts starting in September amidst easing inflation, with two additional cuts expected by year-end. The dollar demonstrated strength against most major currencies but faced weakness against the yen.
Gold rose above $2,410 per ounce on Wednesday, extending gains from the previous session. The Q2 GDP growth advance estimate is expected to show a 2% expansion, up from 1.4% in Q1, while the PCE price index is forecasted to see a 0.1% uptick after remaining flat in May. Recently, cooling US headline inflation supported expectations that the Fed may begin cutting rates in September, with two more reductions anticipated before the end of the year.
WTI crude futures climbed above $77 per barrel on Wednesday following a four-session decline, driven by a large decrease in US crude inventories. According to API data, inventories fell by 3.9 million barrels last week, marking the fourth week of declines and surpassing market expectations of a 2.5 million barrel reduction. Additionally, concerns over potential short-term supply disruptions supported oil prices, with ongoing wildfires in Canada threatening over 10% of the region's oil production. However, optimism surrounding ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas exerted downward pressure on prices after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hinted at progress toward an agreement.

Post automatically merged: Jul 24, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.24.2024​

EUR/USD Faces Early Losses: Resistance at 1.0870​

The EUR/USD pair started the day negatively, with the first resistance at 1.0870. Above this level, subsequent resistances to monitor are 1.0900 and 1.0950. On the downside, the initial support is at 1.0845, followed by 1.0810 and 1.0750 if it breaks below.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.0950	1.0900	1.0870	1.0845	1.0810	1.0750

Post automatically merged: Jul 24, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.24.2024​

Gold Trends Lower with Key Resistance at $2,430​

Gold started the day with a downward movement, with the first resistance level at 2,430. If this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,475 and 2,500. On the downside, the first support is at 2,412, and if this level is broken, the next supports to watch will be 2,385 and 2,355.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2500	2475	2430	2412	2385	2355

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.25.2024​

Investors Await US GDP and PCE Data as Markets Anticipate Fed Rate Cuts​

On Thursday, gold declined to approximately $2,370 per ounce, its lowest level in two weeks, as investors awaited key US economic data. The focus is on preliminary Q2 GDP figures, expected to show 2% growth and the June PCE price index. Market sentiment fully anticipates a rate cut in September, with expectations for two additional reductions by year-end. Increased gold demand from India is also expected following a tax reduction.
The dollar index dropped below 104.3 for the second session as investors awaited crucial US economic data. Key releases include weekly jobless claims and preliminary Q2 GDP figures, followed by the June PCE price index. S&P Global's flash PMIs showed strong services growth but a manufacturing contraction. Market expectations remain tilted towards a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September, with additional reductions likely by year-end.
The Japanese yen strengthened beyond 153 per dollar, its highest in 12 weeks, as traders closed out positions ahead of the BoJ policy meeting. Safe-haven demand also bolstered the yen amid declines in riskier assets due to disappointing corporate earnings and a dimming global economic outlook. Market sentiment is divided on a BoJ rate hike, but there is anticipation of bond purchase tapering. Recent yen strength began with speculation of government intervention, supported by BOJ data indicating significant yen purchases on July 11-12.

Post automatically merged: Jul 25, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.25.2024
EUR/USD Starts Asian Session Flat, Eyes on Upcoming US Growth Figures​

The direction of the pair, starting the Asian session flat today, will be influenced by the growth data that will be released in the US later. Below, the initial support level is at 1.0810, followed by 1.0760 and 1.0710 if this area is breached. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.0870, with subsequent levels to watch at 1.0900 and 1.0950 if this level is surpassed.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.0950	1.0900	1.0870	1.0810	1.0760	1.0710

Post automatically merged: Jul 25, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.25.2024
GBP/USD Tests 1.2860 Support, Looks to Overcome 1.2940 Resistance​

For GBP/USD, the initial support lies at 1.2860, followed by 1.2820 and 1.2760 below. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.2940, with subsequent levels at 1.3000 and 1.3050 if the pair breaks above this resistance.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3050	1.3000	1.2940	1.2860	1.2820	1.2760

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.29.2024​

Investors Drive Gold Above $2,390 Amid Fed Rate Cut Speculation​

Gold surged above $2,390 per ounce on Monday, extending its previous gains as investors anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The US June PCE reading, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, matched forecasts, but the core rate rose by 0.2%, slightly exceeding the expected 0.1%. Despite this, market expectations for rate cuts remained strong, with a reduction fully priced for the September meeting and two additional cuts anticipated by year-end. Additionally, heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provided further support for gold as a safe-haven asset. This followed Israel's vow of strong retaliation against Hezbollah after accusing the Iran-backed group of a weekend attack that resulted in 12 deaths. Hezbollah, however, has firmly denied any involvement in the incident.
On Monday, the Japanese yen strengthened to nearly 153 per dollar, building on a 1% gain from the previous week. This rise is largely attributed to increasing speculation that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in its upcoming meeting to manage inflation and support the currency. The market anticipates a 10 basis point increase to 0.1% this week, along with the announcement of quantitative tightening measures. The yen's rally began in mid-July, initially spurred by a suspected intervention by Japanese authorities. This momentum was further driven by the unwinding of long-standing carry trades and short positions, as well as safe-haven buying amid a global equity sell-off. Additionally, expectations that the US Federal Reserve might soon begin lowering rates have put pressure on the dollar while boosting other major currencies.
On Monday, the dollar index dipped below 104.3, continuing its sideways trend from the past week as traders awaited the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision. The central bank is widely anticipated to keep interest rates steady this week, shifting market focus to hints about future rate cuts. Data released on Friday showed that the headline PCE price index met expectations, but the core rate was slightly higher than forecasted. Additionally, the US economy grew at a faster-than-expected rate of 2.8% in the second quarter, driven by increased consumer demand. However, it still fell short of the 3.1% average growth seen from 2021 to 2023. The dollar also faced pressure from improved risk sentiment, with global stocks and commodities rebounding from recent lows. Meanwhile, traders kept a close eye on yen movements amid speculation that the Bank of Japan might raise rates this week.

Post automatically merged: Jul 29, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.29.2024​

EUR/USD Starts Week Upward, Testing Key Resistance Levels​

Before the significant data releases this week in both Europe and the US, the currency pair started the week with an upward movement. The first key resistance level to watch is 1.0870. If this level is surpassed, the next levels to monitor are 1.0900 and 1.0950. On the downside, the initial support level is 1.0810, with subsequent supports at 1.0780 and 1.0710.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.0950	1.0900	1.0870	1.0810	1.0780	1.0710

Post automatically merged: Jul 29, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.29.2024​

Geopolitical Uncertainty Boosts Gold, Initial Resistance at 2400​

With recent geopolitical developments driving the market, gold started the week with an upward movement. The first key resistance level is 2400. If this level is exceeded, the next resistance levels to watch are 2415 and 2430. On the downside, the initial support level is 2380, with subsequent supports at 2365 and 2350 if this level is breached.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2430	2415	2400	2380	2365	2350

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.30.2024​

Market Anticipation for Central Bank Meetings Keeps Gold Steady at $2,380 per Ounce​

Gold stabilized near $2,380 per ounce on Tuesday after losses in the previous session, as investors await key central bank policy meetings. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday, with potential hints of a September rate cut. The Bank of Japan is anticipated to raise rates by 10 basis points to 0.1%, while opinions are divided on the Bank of England's actions. Traders also await important US economic data, including non-farm payrolls, expected to show 185,000 new jobs and steady unemployment at 4.1%, with 0.3% wage growth.

The Japanese yen held steady around 154 per dollar as the BoJ began its two-day meeting. Markets expect a 10 basis point rate hike to 0.1% and reduced bond purchases. The yen has risen since mid-July, initially due to suspected government intervention and later supported by the unwinding of carry trades and safe-haven buying. Japan's unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 2.5% in June, while the jobs-to-applicants ratio was slightly weaker at 1.23.

The dollar index remained above 104.5, close to a two-week high, as investors anticipated the Fed's policy decision. The Fed is expected to keep rates steady on Wednesday while signaling a possible September rate cut. Last week, the headline PCE price index met expectations, but core rates were slightly higher. The US economy grew by 2.8% in Q2, surpassing forecasts. Traders will focus on June job openings and July consumer confidence, with the monthly jobs report on Friday.

Post automatically merged: Jul 30, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.30.2024​

EUR/USD Faces Key Support at 1.0810; Resistance at 1.0840​

In the EUR/USD pair, the first support level is at the 200-day moving average, which is 1.0810. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.0780 and 1.0710. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.0840; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.0870 and 1.0900.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.0900	1.0870	1.0840	1.0810	1.0780	1.0710

 

[zForex]

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.30.2024​

Gold Remains Steady; Initial Support at 2,370, Resistance at 2,400​

Before the important data releases, gold remains in a sideways trend, with the first support level at 2,370. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,355 and 2,316. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,400; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,415 and 2,430.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2430	2415	2400	2370	2355	2316

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.31.2024​

Anticipation Builds Ahead of Key Economic Decisions​

Today, the EUR/USD remains steady as traders await the Federal Reserve's policy announcement, with key support at 1.0810. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY fluctuates following the Bank of Japan's rate hike, testing the 152.00 level. Gold prices surge to $2,420 amid escalating Middle East tensions, driven by safe-haven demand. Lastly, the pound holds its ground in anticipation of decisions from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, with GBP/USD watching key support at 1.2820. Stay tuned for a comprehensive breakdown of these developments and their implications for the forex market.

Post automatically merged: Jul 31, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.31.2024​

EUR/USD Awaits Fed Decision, First Support at 1.0810​

The dollar index remained subdued around 104.4 on Wednesday as traders took a cautious approach ahead of the latest Federal Reserve policy announcement. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates steady on Wednesday while setting the stage for a potential rate cut in September. On Tuesday, data revealed that the number of job openings in June was little changed at 8.2 million, slightly above forecasts of 8 million. Investors are now looking forward to additional labor market data later this week, including the JOLTS report and the highly anticipated monthly jobs report.Although the pair closed flat yesterday due to these developments, today’s Fed press conference and the European inflation data are likely to bring volatility to the pair.

In the pair, the first support level is at the 200-day moving average, which is 1.0810. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.0780 and 1.0710. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.0840; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.0870 and 1.0900.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.0900	1.0870	1.0840	1.0810	1.0780	1.0710

Post automatically merged: Jul 31, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 07.31.2024​

Gold Surges to $2,420 as Middle East Conflict Escalates​

Gold rose to around $2,420 per ounce on Wednesday, recovering from earlier losses driven by safe-haven demand amid escalating conflict fears in the Middle East. Reports indicated that Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran, according to Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard. This came after the Israeli government claimed responsibility for killing Hezbollah's top commander in a Beirut airstrike on Tuesday, in retaliation for an attack on the Israel-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend.

Before the important data releases, gold remains in a sideways trend, with the first support level at 2,412. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,390 and 2,370. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,430; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,445 and 2,475.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2475	2445	2430	2412	2390	2370

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.01.2024​

Dollar Dips, Yen Peaks, and Gold Stabilizes as Central Banks Signal Changes​

Currency markets experienced significant volatility today, driven by global central bank decisions and economic indicators. The dollar index has softened, dropping to a two-week low after indications from the Federal Reserve of a possible interest rate cut in September due to positive inflation data. The Japanese yen has surged to a four-and-a-half-month peak following the Bank of Japan's rate hike, with expectations of further tightening. Gold prices remain strong, near record highs, supported by expectations of a softer US monetary stance and rising safe-haven demand on growing Middle Eastern conflicts. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair has edged lower with a critical Bank of England meeting that might decide between maintaining or cutting interest rates, influenced by recent economic reports.

Post automatically merged: Aug 1, 2024

Dollar Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.01.2024​

Dollar Weakens as Fed Signals Potential Rate Cut​

The dollar index fell below 104 on Thursday, reaching a two-week low after the Federal Reserve signaled its willingness to cut interest rates in September due to improving inflation data. As expected, the central bank kept the fed funds rate steady and acknowledged that, while inflation remains elevated, it has eased and is moving closer to the target. Markets are fully anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with expectations for over 70 basis points of total easing this year. On the economic front, data released Wednesday, including the ADP report and Q2 employment costs, indicated a cooling labor market. Investors are now looking ahead to the highly anticipated monthly jobs report due on Friday. At the same time, the slight increase in European inflation above expectations allowed the euro to gain some modest strength.

In the pair, the first support level is at the 200-day moving average, which is 1.0810. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.0780 and 1.0710. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.0840; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.0870 and 1.0900.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.0900	1.0870	1.0840	1.0810	1.0780	1.0710

Post automatically merged: Aug 1, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.01.2024​

Gold Nears Record Levels on Softer US Monetary Policy​

Gold traded around $2,450 per ounce on Thursday, following a 1.6% increase in the previous session and staying near record highs. This stability comes during expectations of a more accommodating US monetary policy and increased safe-haven demand. The Federal Reserve, as widely anticipated, kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, indicating that recent economic trends—such as progress in cooling consumer prices and a weakening labor market—support a less restrictive monetary stance. Additionally, rising tensions in the Middle East are enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. The situation in the Middle East intensified following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, which came shortly after Israel claimed responsibility for an airstrike that killed Hezbollah's top commander in Beirut. In retaliation, Iran issued a strong statement, promising that Israel would pay a heavy price.

Before the important data releases, gold remains in a sideways trend, with the first support level at 2,430. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,413 and 2,390. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,458; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,475 and 2,490.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2490	2475	2458	2430	2413	2390

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.02.2024​

Global Economic Shifts Impact Currency Movements and Gold Prices​

The dollar holds its gains against the pound and euro as weak US economic data raises concerns. The EUR/USD tests support at 1.0760. The yen strengthens on safe-haven demand amid US slowdown fears, with the USD/JPY near 149.5. Gold surges to $2,450 per ounce, driven by Middle East tensions and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. The GBP/USD faces volatility following the Bank of England's rate cut to 5%. Dive into our analysis for a closer look at these market movements.

Post automatically merged: Aug 2, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.02.2024​

Middle East Tensions Rise Gold's Safe-Haven Appeal​

Gold rose to around $2,450 per ounce on Friday, nearing record highs and poised for a weekly gain, fueled by recent weak US economic data that increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Data released on Thursday indicated that US manufacturing activity contracted more than expected in July, with employment levels reaching lows not seen since 2020. Additionally, jobless claims rose to 249,000, the highest level in nearly a year. Investors are now awaiting the monthly jobs report for further insights later today. Meanwhile, the escalating risk of a broader conflict in the Middle East is rising gold's appeal as a safe haven. Markets are closely monitoring Iran's response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, which followed the killing of Hezbollah's top commander in a Beirut airstrike.

Before the important data releases, gold remains in a sideways trend, with the first support level at 2,435. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,413 and 2,390. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,475; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,500 and 2,550.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2550	2500	2475	2435	2413	2390

Post automatically merged: Aug 2, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.02.2024​

Bank of England Cuts Rate to 5% Amid Inflation Concerns​

The Bank of England cut its Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5% during its August meeting, in line with the expectations of a small majority in the market. However, the bank emphasized that it would proceed cautiously with any further loosening of monetary policy until officials are more confident that inflation will remain subdued. This rate cut marks a decrease from 16-year highs that had been maintained for a full year. The decision was described as “finely balanced,” with four members of the Monetary Policy Council choosing to keep borrowing costs unchanged due to the slowdown in UK inflation, which was countered by rising services prices and lingering risks that second-round effects could undermine the central bank's progress. Nonetheless, the Committee expressed its expectation that headline inflation will decline and inflation expectations will converge toward the target. Furthermore, the MPC indicated that a restrictive policy is necessary to bring GDP below potential and to continue softening the labor market, justifying a less restrictive policy stance.

For GBP/USD, the initial support lies at 1.2735, followed by 1.2660 and 1.2600 below. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.2785, with subsequent levels at 1.2830 and 1.2870 if the pair breaks above this resistance.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.2870	1.2830	1.2785	1.2735	1.2660	1.2600

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.05.2024​

Weak US Jobs Report Influences Major Pairs and Commodities​

Today's analysis covers key developments in major forex pairs and commodities, focusing on the impact of a weak US jobs report and subsequent market expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The EUR/USD pair hit a 20-week low, driven by heightened recession fears and expectation of significant Fed rate cuts. USD/JPY strengthened on expectations of further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, contrasting with anticipated Fed cuts. Gold prices pulled back from record highs as investors took profits amidst ongoing Mideast tensions. Lastly, we analyze key support and resistance levels for GBP/USD.

Post automatically merged: Aug 5, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.05.2024​

EUR/USD Hits 20-Week Low on Weak US Jobs Report​

The dollar index fell to around 103 on Monday, marking its lowest point in 20 weeks. This decline followed a weak US jobs report, which heightened concerns about a possible recession and reinforced expectations for substantial rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Data released on Friday revealed that the US economy added only 114,000 jobs in July, significantly below market expectations of a 175,000 increase. Additionally, the unemployment rate unexpectedly surged to a 2021-high of 4.3%, while wage growth slowed more than anticipated. Markets are now pricing in over a 70% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September, with approximately 155 basis points of total easing expected for this year and next. In light of these developments, the EUR/USD pair started the week on a very positive note, maintaining the momentum from Friday's drop.

In the pair, the first support level is at 1.0900. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.0850 and 1.0800. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.0950; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.1000 and 1.1050.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1050	1.1000	1.0950	1.0900	1.0850	1.0800

Post automatically merged: Aug 5, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.05.2024​

Gold Pulls Back from Record High​

Gold dropped to around $2,430 per ounce on Monday, reversing earlier gains and pulling back from last week’s record highs as investors took profits. On Friday, the US economy added a net 114,000 jobs in July, falling short of the market expectation of a 175,000 increase. Additionally, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to its highest level since 2021, and wage growth slowed more than anticipated. This followed weak manufacturing data, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI showing a larger-than-expected contraction in factory activity, raising fears of a potential US recession. As a result, expectations for a dovish shift by the Federal Reserve increased, with markets now pricing in over a 70% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut in September and about 155 basis points of total easing anticipated for this year and next. Meanwhile, ongoing tensions in the Middle East continue to support demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

Before the important data releases, gold remains in a sideways trend, with the first support level at 2,435. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,413 and 2,390. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,475; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,500 and 2,550.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2550	2500	2475	2435	2413	2390

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.06.2024​

Market Dynamics: Dollar Stabilizes, Yen Weakens, and Gold Holds Steady​

The dollar index finds support around 102.8 as investors evaluate recession risks amid mixed economic signals, stabilizing against the euro. The yen weakens to 145 per dollar as carry trade unwinding slows and monetary policy divergences between the US and Japan become more pronounced. Gold steadies at $2,410 per ounce, maintaining its safe-haven appeal amid ongoing recession fears and Middle East tensions. Meanwhile, UK retail sales rebound, driven by consumer spending on fashion and beauty, as GBP/USD tests key resistance at 1.2790. Dive into our detailed analysis for more insights into these market movements.

Post automatically merged: Aug 6, 2024

Yen Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.06.2024​

Yen Weakens Amid Slowing Carry Trade Unwind and Diverging US-Japan Policies​

The Japanese yen slipped toward 145 per dollar, retreating from seven-month highs as the unwinding of popular carry trades slowed and investors continued to evaluate the diverging monetary policies between Japan and the US. Earlier this week, the yen rallied to a peak of 141.69 per dollar amid increasing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) would raise interest rates further in the coming months while growing fears of a US recession prompted markets to price in larger rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Last week, the BOJ raised its policy rate to 0.25% and indicated a willingness to hike rates further if the economy remains robust. Markets are anticipating two more rate increases this fiscal year, which ends in March 2025, with the next hike expected in December. The central bank also announced plans to halve its monthly bond purchases over the next couple of years. Additionally, data revealed that Japanese authorities spent 5.53 trillion yen to support the currency through intervention in July.

The first resistance level is at 146.00. If this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 147.00 and 148.00. On the downside, the initial support is at 143.60; if this level is breached, the next support levels to watch will be 141.70 and 141.00.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
148.00	147.00	146.00	143.60	141.70	141.00

Post automatically merged: Aug 6, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.06.2024​

UK Retail Sales Recover, Driven by Consumer Spending on Fashion and Beauty​

Retail sales in the United Kingdom rose by 0.3% on a like-for-like basis in July 2024 compared to a year earlier, rebounding from a 0.5% decline in June and aligning with market forecasts. This return to growth was primarily driven by increased consumer purchases of clothing and beauty products in anticipation of the holidays. Over the three months leading up to July, food sales rose by 2.6% year-on-year, while sales of non-food items fell by 1.7%. This latest improvement also coincided with the Bank of England beginning to cut interest rates, which has fueled expectations of stronger underlying spending growth in the second half of the year.

For GBP/USD, the initial support lies at 1.2735, followed by 1.2660 and 1.2600 below. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.2790, with subsequent levels at 1.2830 and 1.2870 if the pair breaks above this resistance.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.2870	1.2830	1.2790	1.2735	1.2660	1.2600

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.07.2024​

Dollar Strengthens, Yen Weakens, and Gold Surges​

The Dollar Index has climbed to around 103.2, reflecting a scale-back in bets for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut, despite earlier recession fears sparked by a weak US jobs report. Japanese yen weakens with the Bank of Japan's cautious stance on rate hikes, even as market conditions remain unstable. Gold prices surge above $2,390 per ounce, driven by rate cut expectations and ongoing geopolitical tensions. The GBP/USD pair indicates potential bullish trends above 1.2730 and bearish movements below 1.2650, providing insights for traders navigating a volatile market.

Post automatically merged: Aug 7, 2024

USD/JPY Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.07.2024​

USD/JPY Weakens with BoJ's Cautious Stance on Rate Hikes​

The Japanese yen weakened past 147 per dollar, moving further away from seven-month highs after Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida stated that they would not raise interest rates if market conditions were unstable. Nonetheless, markets still anticipate that the central bank will increase rates as rising local wages drive inflation higher. On Monday, the yen surged to a seven-month high due to recent currency interventions from Tokyo and a hawkish shift in BoJ monetary policy, which triggered a significant unwinding of yen carry trades. This move was further supported by growing fears of a US recession and disappointing tech earnings that led to a global selloff in risk assets, prompting speculation about an emergency rate cut from the Fed. However, market sentiment has since stabilized, with analysts suggesting that the recent global selloff may have been an overreaction.

The first resistance level is at 148.00. If this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 149.30 and 150.90. On the downside, the initial support is at 145.90; if this level is breached, the next support to watch will be 144.00 and 141.70.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
150.90	149.30	148.00	145.90	144.00	141.70

Post automatically merged: Aug 7, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.07.2024​

GBP/USD: Bullish Above 1.2730, Bearish Below 1.2650​

For GBP/USD, the initial support lies at 1.2650, followed by 1.2600 and 1.2540 below. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.2730, with subsequent levels at 1.2830 and 1.2870 if the pair breaks above this resistance.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.28720	1.2780	1.2730	1.2650	1.2600	1.2540

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.08.2024​

Dollar Index Rises as Yen Stabilizes and Gold Climbs​

The Dollar Index has experienced a resurgence, climbing to around 103.2 as traders scaled back expectations for an immediate Federal Reserve rate cut with recent weak US job data that hinted at potential economic slowdowns. The Japanese yen has stabilized at around 146.5 per dollar on mixed signals from the Bank of Japan regarding future interest rate policies. Gold has risen to approximately $2,400 per ounce, driven by US rate cut expectations and ongoing global economic uncertainties. Additionally, the GBP/USD pair is poised for potential significant price actions, with key support at 1.2650.

Post automatically merged: Aug 8, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.08.2024​

US Rate Cut Expectations Push Gold to $2,400​

Gold strengthened to around $2,400 per ounce on Thursday, recovering losses from the previous session amid expectations of US interest rate cuts and ongoing assessments of recession fears. The recent weak US jobs report has led traders to predict nearly 105 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by year-end, with markets fully pricing in a rate cut for September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Lower interest rates increase the appeal of non-interest-bearing precious metals like gold. Investors are now awaiting Thursday’s jobless claims to determine whether economic data, particularly employment figures, is indeed slowing down. At the same time, the risk of escalation in the Middle East conflict continues to support upward momentum for bullion. Additionally, official data released on Wednesday indicated that the People’s Bank of China did not add to its gold reserves for the third consecutive month in July.

Gold starts the day in a sideways trend, with the first support level at 2,387. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,375 and 2,355. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,400; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,430 and 2,450.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2450	2430	2400	2387	2375	2355

 

[zForex]

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.08.2024​

GBP/USD Poised for Action: Key Support at 1.2650​

For GBP/USD, the initial support is 1.2650, followed by 1.2600 and 1.2540, respectively. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.2730, with subsequent levels at 1.2830 and 1.2870 if the pair breaks above this resistance.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.2870	1.2830	1.2730	1.2650	1.2600	1.2540

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.09.2024​

Dollar Gains on Strong Data, Yen and Gold Adjust as Markets React​

The dollar steadied around 103.2, bolstered by better-than-expected US jobless claims that eased recession fears and tempered expectations for significant Federal Reserve rate cuts. The yen approached a weekly low below 147 per dollar, as strong US data diminished its safe-haven appeal. Meanwhile, gold dipped to $2,420 per ounce, with geopolitical tensions providing support, though market uncertainty about the Fed's next move kept prices in check. The GBP/USD pair tested key support at 1.2720 amid ongoing market volatility. Explore our detailed analysis for further insights into these market shifts.

Post automatically merged: Aug 9, 2024

Dollar Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.09.2024​

Dollar Steadies Around 103.2 After Better-Than-Expected Jobless Claims​

The dollar index maintained its recent gain, sitting around 103.2 on Friday, close to a one-week high, as better-than-expected US jobless claims data eased concerns about an economic downturn. Thursday’s data revealed that initial jobless claims dropped by 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 last week, marking the largest decline in about 11 months and coming in below the anticipated 240,000. Following this data, markets scaled back expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with the likelihood of a 50 basis point reduction in September decreasing from 69% to 54%. Overall, the dollar is set to close the week with little change as the market recovers from losses incurred during Monday’s selloff. Meanwhile, the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc have retreated from recent highs, reflecting an improving macroeconomic outlook.

In the pair, which has been trading sideways since the beginning of the week, the first support level is at 1.0900. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.0850 and 1.0800. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.0960; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.1000 and 1.1050.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1050	1.1000	1.0960	1.0900	1.0850	1.0800

 

[zForex]

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.09.2024​

Geopolitical Tensions Support Gold, But Prices Dip as Market Awaits Fed​

Gold prices eased to around $2,420 per ounce on Friday after a nearly 2% increase in the previous session. The metal continues to benefit from ongoing geopolitical tensions and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Its safe-haven appeal has been strengthened by escalating conflicts, including anticipated retaliatory actions by Iran against Israel and a rare Ukrainian strike on Russia. While expectations for a Fed rate cut in September remain, investors have moderated their predictions. The market is now split on whether the US central bank will opt for a 50 basis point reduction or a more modest 25 basis points. This shift follows a significant drop in initial weekly jobless claims in the US, easing fears that a weakening labor market might signal a recession, and coincides with positive sentiment from a strong ISM services PMI for July. Overall, gold is poised to decline for the week, reversing the substantial gains made in the prior week.

In gold, first support level is at 2,410. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,390 and 2,375. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,430; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,450 and 2,500.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2500	2450	2430	2410	2390	2375