Daily Market Analysis By zForex

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.12.2024​

Dollar Steadies Ahead of Key US Inflation Data, Yen Dips Amid Holiday-Thinned Trading​

The dollar stabilized around 103.1 as markets await crucial US inflation data this week, which is expected to provide insights into the Federal Reserve's next moves. The yen dipped toward 147 per dollar in light trading due to a Japanese holiday, while gold prices eased below $2,430 per ounce as investors anticipate the upcoming inflation reports. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair tests support at 1.2720, with key levels in focus if breached. Dive into our detailed analysis to understand these market dynamics.

Post automatically merged: Aug 12, 2024

Dollar Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.12.2024​

Dollar Stabilizes Ahead of Key US Inflation Data After Recent Volatility​

On Monday, the dollar index held steady around 103.1 as investors awaited key inflation data this week to confirm that price growth continues to stabilize. The US producer inflation data is due on Tuesday, with consumer inflation figures following on Wednesday. Additionally, US retail sales data will be released on Thursday. Last week, the dollar dropped to a seven-month low following a disappointing July jobs report, which raised concerns about a potential US recession and led to speculation about an emergency Federal Reserve rate cut. However, sentiment has since stabilized as subsequent US economic data eased recession fears, allowing the dollar to recover much of its previous losses. Although expectations for Fed rate cuts have been dialed back, markets still anticipate over 100 basis points of total easing this year.

In the EUR/USD pair, which has been trading sideways last week, the first support level is at 1.0900. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.0850 and 1.0800. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.0960; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.1000 and 1.1050.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1050	1.1000	1.0960	1.0900	1.0850	1.0800

Post automatically merged: Aug 12, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.12.2024​

Gold Slips Below $2,430; Eyes on Fed Rate Cut Speculations​

Gold prices fell below $2,430 per ounce on Monday as investors awaited key US inflation data this week for insights into the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy. Expectations for a Fed rate cut in September remain, supported by recent comments from Fed officials suggesting that inflation might be easing enough to justify a rate reduction next month. However, market opinions have become mixed following positive US job data last week, which eased fears that a weakening labor market could signal a recession. Despite this, gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset persisted due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, including reports of another Israeli airstrike on Gaza and Moscow's promise of a 'tough response' to Ukraine's actions. The US producer inflation data is set to be released on Tuesday, with consumer inflation figures following on Wednesday.

In gold, the first support level is at 2,425. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,390 and 2,375. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,436; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,450 and 2,500.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2500	2450	2436	2425	2390	2375

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.13.2024​

Markets Show Caution Before the US Inflation Report, Yen Under Pressure​

Global markets presented cautious optimism and uncertainty as traders awaited key economic data and central bank decisions. The dollar index remained steady at 103.1, with traders holding back significant moves before the US inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve's next steps. The Japanese yen weakened, falling for the fifth time in six sessions, as uncertainty over the Bank of Japan's future rate hikes persisted despite ongoing inflationary pressures in Japan. Gold prices eased slightly below $2,470 per ounce but stayed near record highs, driven by its safe-haven appeal during escalating geopolitical tensions involving Israel and Ukraine. In the UK, payrolled employment increased by 24,000 in July, supporting a 20-pip rally in GBP/USD, with strong gains in the health and social work sector contributing to the overall employment growth. Markets are now focused on upcoming US inflation data, which could provide further direction for global currencies and commodities.

Post automatically merged: Aug 13, 2024

Dollar Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.13.2024​

Dollar Index Holds Steady Before the US Inflation Data​

The dollar index remained steady at around 103.1 on Tuesday as traders avoided making significant moves before key US inflation data this week, which could reveal whether price growth has continued to stabilize. US producer inflation data will be released later today, followed by consumer inflation figures on Wednesday and retail sales numbers on Thursday. Over the weekend, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman noted that despite softer inflation readings for May and June, inflation is still uncomfortably above the FOMC’s 2% target. As a result, markets have reduced their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, now predicting a 25 basis point reduction in September rather than a more substantial 50 basis point cut. However, analysts still foresee over 100 basis points of total Fed easing this year. The dollar showed little change against most major currencies but continued to make slight gains against the yen as the unwinding of yen carry trades lost momentum.

In the pair, the first support level is at 1.0900. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.0850 and 1.0800. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.0960; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.1000 and 1.1050.

Post automatically merged: Aug 13, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.13.2024​

UK Employment Up 24,000 in July, Supporting GBP/USD​

In July 2024, the number of payrolled employees in the United Kingdom increased by 24,000 to reach 30.4 million, following a revised gain of 14,000 the previous month. Year-on-year, payrolled employment grew by 0.8% or 252,000, largely due to a rise in the health and social work sector, which added 163,000 positions. Regionally, the largest annual increase in payrolled employment occurred in Ards and North Down, with a growth rate of 2.9%, while Westminster saw the biggest decline at -2.6%. Additionally, the median monthly pay rose by 5.6% to £2,396. The highest pay increase was seen in the other service activities sector at 8.4%, whereas the public administration and defense sector experienced the largest decrease at -2.4%. With this economic data, GBP/USD has rallied approximately 20 pips.

For GBP/USD, the initial support lies at 1.2740, followed by 1.2650 and 1.2600 below. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.2820, with subsequent levels at 1.2880 and 1.2950 if the pair breaks above this resistance.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.14.2024​

US Inflation Data Softens the Dollar Index, Yen Strengthens, and Gold Nears Highs​

The dollar hovers around 102.6 as softer US producer inflation data raises expectations for Fed rate cuts, with EUR/USD eyeing the 1.1000 resistance. The yen strengthens past 146.5 per dollar, recovering from recent lows as traders adjust to the inflation outlook. Meanwhile, gold remains near record highs at $2,460 per ounce, supported by its safe-haven appeal amid easing inflation and geopolitical tensions. The GBP/USD pair drops as UK core inflation slows more than expected, raising the likelihood of Bank of England rate cuts. Dive into our analysis for more details on these market movements.

Post automatically merged: Aug 14, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.14.2024​

EUR/USD Eyes 1.1000 Resistance Amid Dollar Softness​

The dollar index hovered around 102.6 on Wednesday, following a 0.5% decline in the previous session, as softer US producer price data raised expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Investors are awaiting the July CPI report for confirmation that price growth is continuing to moderate. On Tuesday, US producer prices increased by 0.1% in July from the previous month, falling short of the anticipated 0.2% rise, and core producer prices remained unexpectedly flat. As a result, markets are now pricing in a higher likelihood of a 50-basis-point Fed rate cut in September and anticipate over 100 basis points of total easing this year. With the weakening dollar index, EUR/USD has started testing the 1.1000 resistance level once again.
In the pair, the first support level is at 1.0950. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.0900 and 1.0850. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.1000; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.1050 and 1.1100.

Post automatically merged: Aug 14, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.14.2024​

Softer US Inflation Data Improves Gold’s Safe-Haven Appeal​

Gold eased to around $2,460 per ounce on Wednesday but remained near record highs, as new evidence of softer US inflation increased expectations for a larger interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Annual producer inflation slowed to 2.2% in July, down from 2.7% in June and approaching the Fed’s 2% target. Additionally, gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset continues to attract investors amid escalating geopolitical tensions, including Iran’s potential retaliatory actions against Israel and Ukraine’s activities in Russia. Market participants are awaiting the US CPI data later in the day for further clues on inflation. Currently, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 50% probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut in September. Lower interest rates typically increase the attractiveness of non-interest-bearing assets like gold.
In gold, the first support level is at 2,450. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,430 and 2,412. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,475; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,450 and 2,500.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.15.2024​

Inflation Data Drives EUR/USD Higher, Yen and Gold Strengthen​

The dollar remains under pressure around 102.6 as softer US producer inflation data fuels expectations for Fed rate cuts, pushing EUR/USD toward the 1.1065 resistance level. The yen strengthens past 146.5 per dollar amid market uncertainty over BOJ policy and declining business sentiment. Meanwhile, gold holds near record highs at $2,460 per ounce, supported by expectations of a significant Fed rate cut and ongoing geopolitical tensions. The GBP/USD pair declines as UK inflation data increases the likelihood of Bank of England rate cuts. Explore our detailed analysis for a deeper understanding of these market trends.

Post automatically merged: Aug 15, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.15.2024​

EUR/USD Eyes 1.1065 Resistance Amid Dollar Weakness​

On Wednesday, the dollar index traded around 102.6, following a 0.5% decline in the previous session. This drop was driven by disappointing US producer price data, which strengthened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Investors are now awaiting the highly anticipated July CPI report for further confirmation that inflation is continuing to moderate. Data released on Tuesday indicated that US producer prices increased by just 0.1% in July from the previous month, falling short of the anticipated 0.2% rise, while core producer prices remained unexpectedly unchanged. The dollar has experienced losses against most major currencies like Euro amid a rally in risk assets.
In the pair, the first support level is at 1.0950. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.0900 and 1.0850. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.1065; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.1100 and 1.1150.

Post automatically merged: Aug 15, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.15.2024​

UK Inflation Data Pushes GBP/USD Lower, Increases Likelihood of Bank of England Rate Cuts​

The British pound fell to $1.28, retreating from a three-week high reached earlier in the month, following UK inflation data that heightened expectations for a Bank of England rate cut. Annual inflation came in at 2.2%, matching projections but falling short of prior estimates. Services inflation decreased to 5.2%, its lowest level in two years and below the central bank’s forecast of 5.6%. Core inflation also decelerated more than anticipated. Hence, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September rose to 47% from 36% before the data release. Market participants are now pricing in two additional 25 basis point cuts by year-end. However, recent labor market data revealed unexpected strength: the unemployment rate declined to 4.2% for the three months ending in June, defying expectations of an increase, while wage growth moderated to 5.4% from 5.8%, remaining slightly above the Bank of England’s forecast.

For GBP/USD, the initial support lies at 1.2790, followed by 1.2740 and 1.2700 below. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.2880, with subsequent levels at 1.2950 and 1.3000 if the pair breaks above this resistance.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.16.2024​

US Economic Data Supports Dollar, Yen Dips on Political Worries​

On Friday, the Dollar Index remained steady around 103 on strong US economic data that eased recession fears, although it faced some pressure from soft inflation data. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen dropped to a two-week low past 149 per dollar, influenced by robust US data and political uncertainty in Japan. Gold held steady at around $2,450 per ounce, attracting safe-haven demand with Middle East tensions, though its momentum was moderated by shifting expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. In the UK, retail sales rebounded in July, rising by 0.5% month-over-month and 1.4% annually, driven by gains in non-food stores and non-store retail trade.

Post automatically merged: Aug 16, 2024

Dollar Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.16.2024​

Dollar Index Holds Steady on Rate Cut Speculations​

The dollar index traded around 103 on Friday, following a 0.5% gain in the previous session, supported by strong US economic data that eased recession fears. Retail sales in the US rose by 1% in July from the previous month, significantly outperforming market forecasts of 0.3%, reflecting robust consumer spending. Additionally, new unemployment claims fell unexpectedly for a second consecutive week, easing concerns about the labor market. However, the dollar faced some pressure from soft US inflation data for July. Markets are expecting that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in September, though there is still uncertainty over whether the reduction will be 25 or 50 basis points.

In the pair, the first support level is at 1.0950. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.0900 and 1.0850. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.1015; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.1065 and 1.1100.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1100	1.1065	1.1015	1.0950	1.0900	1.0850

Post automatically merged: Aug 16, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.16.2024​

Gold Holds Steady Around $2,450​

Gold remained steady around $2,450 per ounce on Friday, poised to record a weekly gain following a decline the previous week. The metal continues to attract investors as a safe-haven asset amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly regarding concerns about a potential Iranian retaliatory strike against Israel. Meanwhile, recent US economic data has tempered expectations for a more aggressive Federal Reserve stance on its anticipated September rate cut. July retail sales surged unexpectedly, signaling strong consumer spending, and initial claims fell to their lowest level in a month, alleviating concerns about a weakening labor market. As a result, investors are now predicting a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September, shifting away from the previously expected 50 basis point reduction. This shift has moderated gold's momentum due to its sensitivity to interest-bearing assets.

The first support level for gold is at 2,450. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,430 and 2,412. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,475; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,450 and 2,500.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2500	2450	2475	2450	2430	2412

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.19.2024​

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Boost Yen, Pressure Dollar​

The dollar weakened significantly due to growing expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, fueled by concerns over the US economy. Conversely, the Japanese yen strengthened as its economy showed resilience. Gold prices remained elevated amidst geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand. Currency pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD exhibited specific technical levels to watch for potential price movements.

Post automatically merged: Aug 19, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.19.2024​

Gold Prices Await Powell's Speech and FOMC Minutes​

Gold prices remained near a record high of $2,500 per ounce on Monday, driven by strong demand for safe-haven assets. The Federal Reserve's policy outlook is being closely analyzed, particularly following recent positive US economic data. This has led to market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a total of 100 basis points of cuts anticipated over the remaining three Fed meetings this year.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in the Middle East to mediate ceasefire talks between Gaza and Israel. However, ongoing strikes from Israel and mixed statements from Hamas and Israel have reduced hopes for a resolution. Meanwhile, tensions are also high between Ukraine and Russia, with Ukrainian forces making advances into Russian territory. Investors are now waiting for Fed Chair Powell’s speech and the latest FOMC minutes later this week for further clarity on monetary policy.

The first support level for gold stands at 2,470. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,450 and 2,412. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,510; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,550 and 2,580.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2580	2550	2510	2470	2450	2412

Post automatically merged: Aug 19, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.19.2024​

GBP/USD Technical Levels: Support at 1.2920​

For GBP/USD, the initial support lies at 1.2920, followed by 1.2860 and 1.2800 below. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.3000, with subsequent levels at 1.3050 and 1.3100 if the pair breaks above this resistance.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3100	1.3050	1.3000	1.2920	1.2860	1.2800

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.20.2024​

Dollar Weakness Drives EUR/USD Higher, Yen Steady, and Gold Holds Near Highs​

The dollar index dropped below 102, reaching its lowest point in over seven months as markets brace for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. This decline has pushed EUR/USD closer to key resistance at 1.1100, with further potential to 1.1150 and 1.1190 if momentum continues. Meanwhile, the yen held steady at 146.5 per dollar, reflecting similar expectations of rate cuts, while gold remained near record highs around $2,500 per ounce, supported by its safe-haven status and anticipation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole. The GBP/USD pair also remains strong above 1.29, though gains may slow as the market awaits UK PMI data and BoE Governor Bailey's speech.

Post automatically merged: Aug 20, 2024

Dollar Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.20.2024​

Dollar Index Drops Below 102 as Markets Brace for Potential Fed Rate Cuts​

On Tuesday, the dollar index remained below 102, continues to decline over the past two sessions and reaching its lowest point in over seven months. This drop reflects strong expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon begin reducing interest rates. Investors are also preparing for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday, looking for indications on whether the central bank might cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points in September. Also today, the upcoming inflation data in Europe will provide clues about whether the ECB will continue its interest rate cuts, and it will also be decisive in determining whether the strength of the currency pair can be maintained.
In the EUR/USD pair, the first support level is at 1.1065. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.1000 and 1.0950. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.1100; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.1150 and 1.1190.

Post automatically merged: Aug 20, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.20.2024​

Gold Remains Near Record Levels as Investors Eye Fed Rate Cut​

On Tuesday, gold remained near $2,500 per ounce, staying close to record highs due to its status as a safe haven while investors awaited further signals from the Federal Reserve. On Monday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that Israel had agreed to a proposal aimed at resolving the delays in a Gaza ceasefire and called on Hamas to follow suit. Despite this, concerns about a wider conflict persist following Hamas’s claim of responsibility for a bombing in Tel Aviv. Additionally, markets are preparing for Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, seeking clues about the extent of the anticipated rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.
In gold, the first support level is at 2,470. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,450 and 2,412. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,510; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,550 and 2,580.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.21.2024​

ECB Considers Rate Cut, Dollar Index Falls as Fed Decision Looms​

The ECB is considering a rate cut in September due to economic concerns in the Eurozone. The dollar index dropped to its lowest level of the year below 101.5, as investors await the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. The market predicts around 100 basis points in rate cuts this year, with uncertainty about the size of September’s cut. Gold prices remain strong above $2,495, holding gains after a record high of $2,532, with key support at $2,500. The Japanese yen paused its rally against the USD, with the USD/JPY pair finding support around 144.00 and resistance near 148.20, amid expectations of a potential BoJ rate hike. The GBP/USD pair is nearing a breakout above 1.3140, with the key resistance level at 1.3050.

Post automatically merged: Aug 21, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.21.2024​

Gold Prices Steady Above $2,495 After Hitting Record High​

Gold prices remain strong above $2,495 during Wednesday's Asian trading, holding onto gains after reaching a new all-time high of $2,532. Traders are cautious, considering the widespread risk aversion, and are holding off on new positions before the release of the US Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes expected later on Wednesday.
From a technical standpoint, last Friday's breakout above the triple top resistance around the $2,479-2,480 area, followed by a strong move beyond the $2,500 psychological level, served as a new catalyst for bullish traders. If the all-time-high level is broken, then the next target would be $2,575. The $2,500 round figure is likely to support the downside for gold prices near the $2,483 resistance level.

Post automatically merged: Aug 21, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.21.2024​

GBP/USD Nears 1.3140 Breakout as Bullish Momentum Builds​

The GBP/USD pair is approaching a potential breakout above 1.3140 as bullish momentum continues to build. The RSI indicator has steadily increased in recent sessions.
Technically, the pound faces immediate resistance at 1.3050 and 1.3140, key levels that need to be surpassed for the upward trend to persist. Support is currently at 1.2955 and 1.2895. If these levels are breached, the next support level to watch is 1.2865.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.22.2024​

Market Summary: Euro and GBP Uptrend, USD/JPY and Silver Testing Key Levels​

The euro strengthens against the dollar, targeting resistance levels at 1.1230 and 1.1252, driven by dollar weakness and yen volatility. GBP/USD is at a pivotal trend line, with the potential to either break out or retreat to support at 1.3012. The yen faces critical tests as USD/JPY continues its downtrend, approaching key support levels at 143 and 140. Gold hovers near significant support at 2489, with expectations for an uptrend continuation if this level holds. Silver encounters resistance around 30, with potential declines if it fails to break through this barrier.

Post automatically merged: Aug 22, 2024

Euro Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.22.2024​

Euro Gains Momentum Amid Weakening Dollar and Yen Volatility​

In essence, with the dollar weakening and volatility rising due to the yen's monetary policy, market participants are shifting their focus to the euro. From a technical standpoint, as long as the price remains above 1.1117, buying pressure is likely to persist. Consequently, the price might begin testing the range between 1.1230 and 1.1252.

Post automatically merged: Aug 22, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.22.2024​

GBP/USD Decision Point: Will It Break the Trend Line?​

GBP/USD is in a critical area. The upward trend that has been ongoing since the beginning of the year is very close to its upper boundary and is at a decision point. The effort to break above the trend line is ongoing. As long as it remains below this level, it could return to support levels around 1.3012."

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.23.2024​

Euro Hits New Highs, Yen Strengthens, and Gold Stabilizes​

The Euro has climbed to a new 13-month high against the US dollar as expectations grow for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the dollar weakening in response. USD/JPY remains under pressure as Japan's core CPI hits 2.7%, reflecting the Bank of Japan's hawkish stance and fueling yen strength. Gold holds steady near $2,490 per ounce, awaiting further Fed policy signals, while GBP/USD trends upwards within its channel, eyeing a target of $1.3185. Silver is testing the 29.60 support level, with potential gains toward 30.48 if the support holds.

Post automatically merged: Aug 23, 2024

Euro Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.23.2024​

Euro Nears New High: USD Declines with Anticipated Fed Rate Reductions​

The Euro reached a new 13-month peak against the US dollar on Monday and is close to achieving another high today. The US dollar continues to weaken as the Federal Reserve plans a series of interest rate cuts, anticipated to begin in September. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday could provide the market with clearer insight into the central bank's current outlook and the anticipated pace of rate reductions.

Post automatically merged: Aug 23, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.23.2024​

Gold Prices Remain Firm as Fed Rate Cut Expectations Build​

Gold stabilized around $2,490 per ounce on Friday, after dropping more than 1% in the previous session from its record highs, as markets awaited Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium later in the day. There is widespread anticipation that Powell will indicate the Fed’s plan to start easing its restrictive policy in September, though details on the pace and extent of the reduction are expected to be limited. Recently, several Fed officials have shown optimism about a potential rate cut next month, a sentiment reflected in the latest FOMC minutes. Traders are still expecting 100 basis points in rate cuts by the end of the year, which would reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Moreover, recent data suggests the US labor market might struggle under restrictive rates. Initial jobless claims in the US slightly exceeded forecasts in mid-August, raising concerns after the significant downward revision to nonfarm payrolls for the year ending in March.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.26.2024​

EUR/USD Rises, Yen Strengthens, and Gold Holds Steady​

The Euro surged to a 13-month high against the dollar, driven by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s indication of a potential rate cut in September, pushing the dollar index to its lowest level since July 2023. In contrast, the Japanese yen strengthened past 144 per dollar as Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at possible policy adjustments amid high inflation. Gold remained firm near $2,510 per ounce, buoyed by expectations of Fed rate cuts and heightened geopolitical concerns. GBP/USD rose to 1.3215, benefiting from a weaker dollar and anticipated Fed rate cuts, while silver stayed within a narrow range, with its direction dependent on upcoming economic data and Fed decisions.

Post automatically merged: Aug 26, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.26.2024​

Gold Prices Remain Strong with Fed Rate Cut on the Horizon​

Gold remained steady at around $2,510 per ounce on Monday, staying near record highs following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s reinforcement of expectations for an interest rate cut in September. In his speech at Jackson Hole last week, Powell signaled that the Fed is ready to adjust its policy, with the timing and scale of rate cuts contingent on upcoming economic data. He highlighted increased risks to the job market while noting a decrease in inflation risks. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) now feels more confident that inflation is moving towards the 2% target, strengthening the argument for lowering borrowing costs. Market expectations are divided between a 25 basis point or 50 basis point cut at the Fed's September meeting, but investors are anticipating a total of 100 basis points in rate cuts for the remainder of the year. This would lower the opportunity cost of holding assets that do not yield interest. Additionally, gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset was enhanced by growing concerns about a potential broader conflict in the Middle East.
Technically the first support level is at 2,500. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,470 and 2,430. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,532; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,550 and 2,600.

Post automatically merged: Aug 26, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.26.2024​

GBP/USD Rises to 1.3215 as Fed Rate Cut Expectations Weaken Dollar​

The GBP/USD pair is trading higher at around 1.3215 in the early Asian session on Monday. This gain is largely due to expectations that the US Federal Reserve will start easing its monetary policy in September, which has weakened the Greenback and lifted GBP/USD. The anticipated Fed rate cuts are continuing to put pressure on the Greenback, benefiting GBP/USD. Rabobank analysts forecast that deteriorating labor market conditions will lead to four consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts in September, November, December, and January. Meanwhile, speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) will adopt a slower pace of policy adjustments compared to other major central banks is lending some support to the Pound Sterling (GBP). BoE Governor Andrew Bailey noted late Friday that, despite inflation remaining a major concern, many pricing pressures have eased more quickly than anticipated. He also stressed that it is premature to declare victory over inflation.
For GBP/USD, the initial support is 1.3180, followed by 1.3130 and 1.3100, respectively. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.3240, with subsequent levels at 1.3280 and 1.3320 if the pair breaks above this resistance.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.27.2024​

Geopolitical Tensions and Fed Rate Cut Expectations Shape Forex and Commodities​

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts have significantly influenced market movements. The dollar index stabilized after a recent dip, supported by safe-haven demand, while the EUR/USD and USD/JPY pairs reflected the broader market sentiment. Gold prices declined despite Fed rate cut expectations, with ongoing Middle East tensions offering some support. GBP/USD pulled back after a strong rally, and silver prices remained near recent highs, driven by Fed policy speculation and safe-haven buying.

Post automatically merged: Aug 27, 2024

Dollar Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.27.2024​

Dollar Index Stabilizes Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Fed Rate Cut Expectations​

The dollar index held steady around 100.9 on Tuesday, recovering from a 13-month low reached in the previous session. This stability was supported by heightened safe-haven demand due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, where Israel and Hezbollah exchanged missile strikes over the weekend, raising concerns about a broader conflict that could involve Iran. Despite this, the dollar faces pressure from anticipations that the Federal Reserve may soon begin cutting interest rates. In his Jackson Hole address on Friday, Fed Chair Powell indicated that it's time to adjust policy due to increasing risks to the labor market, while remaining confident that inflation will eventually meet the Fed's 2% target. Additionally, Monday’s data showed a stronger rebound in durable goods orders for July. Investors are now awaiting this week’s initial jobless claims and the Fed’s preferred PCE price index report for further insights into the future direction of interest rates.
In the pair, which has been rallying for 2 consecutive weeks, the first support level is at 1.1150. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.1100 and 1.1060. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.1220; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.1250 and 1.1300.

Post automatically merged: Aug 27, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.27.2024​

Gold's Decline Continues as Fed Officials Hint at Imminent Rate Cuts​

Gold prices fell below $2,510 per ounce on Tuesday, despite expectations of imminent US rate cuts and rising geopolitical tensions. Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated a likely interest rate cut in September, signaling the central bank's readiness to lower rates as inflation nears its 2% target, while also noting concerns about a weakening labor market. On Monday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly supported Powell’s dovish view, stating that “the time to adjust policy is upon us.” Similarly, Richmond Fed President Barkin expressed support for reducing interest rates in light of a cooling labor market, despite still seeing potential inflationary risks. Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East have driven increased demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.
Technically the first support level is at 2,500. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,470 and 2,430. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,520; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,532 and 2,550.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.28.2024​

Fed Easing and Economic Data Shape Currency and Commodity Trends​

Fed easing expectations and upcoming economic data have been pivotal in recent market movements. The EUR/USD pair remains steady around 1.1165 as speculation about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts continues. The USD/JPY shows strength in the yen amid a weaker dollar and contrasting monetary policies between Japan and the US. Gold prices are steady below $2,520, with investors awaiting further Fed insights. GBP/USD reached a multi-year high at 1.3266, fueled by hopes for Fed rate cuts. Silver prices are stable above $30, with market participants focusing on upcoming economic data and Fed policy signals.

Post automatically merged: Aug 28, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.28.2024​

EUR/USD Holds Around 1.1165 Amid Speculation of Fed Easing​

The dollar index traded around 100.6 and EUR/USD parity around 1.1165 on Wednesday, approaching DXY’s lowest levels since July 2023 as expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts continued to weigh on the currency. Markets are pricing in about a one-third chance that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points in September, with over 100 basis points in total easing projected for this year. These expectations were bolstered by dovish comments from Fed officials, who are highlighting increasing risks to the labor market while maintaining confidence that inflation will eventually return to target. Investors are now awaiting the latest initial jobless claims and the Fed-preferred PCE price index report later this week for further insights into the rate trajectory.
In the pair, which has been trading sideways since the beginning of the week, the first support level is at 1.1150. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.1100 and 1.1060. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.1220; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.1250 and 1.1300.

Post automatically merged: Aug 28, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.28.2024​

GBP/USD Peaks at 1.3266 with Fed Rate Cut in Focus​

On Tuesday, GBP/USD reached its highest level in several years, peaking at 1.3266, as the British pound continued to benefit from a broad decline in the US dollar. Investors are optimistic about a potential rate cut from the Federal Reserve in September, while anticipation builds ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation report, which is not due until Friday. Last Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium strongly suggested that the central bank is likely to begin a rate-cutting cycle on September 18, further fueling market enthusiasm. With limited significant economic data expected from the UK, Wednesday is set to be a relatively quiet day on both sides of the Atlantic. Traders will be watching for a speech from Fed Board of Governors member Christopher Waller early in the US session, and later, a speech from Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Catherine Mann, scheduled after the close of the London markets.
For GBP/USD, the initial support lies at 1.3230, followed by 1.3175 and 1.3130 below. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.3265, with subsequent levels at 1.3300 and 1.3350 if the pair breaks above this resistance.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.29.2024​

Fed Rate Cut Speculation Drives Market Movements in Blustering Ways​

Markets are focused on upcoming US economic data as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts continue to impact currencies and commodities. The EUR/USD pair trades around 1.1130, with key support and resistance levels highlighted amid anticipation of the Q2 GDP and jobless claims reports. The USD/JPY remains under pressure near 144.50, influenced by dovish Fed signals and potential BoJ rate hikes. Gold has climbed above $2,510, bolstered by rate cut expectations and rising Chinese imports, while GBP/USD has dropped below 1.3200, reflecting fading bullish momentum. Silver is trading around $29.40, pressured by a stronger dollar, with market attention on forthcoming economic data to gauge the Fed’s rate cut decision.

Post automatically merged: Aug 29, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.29.2024​

EUR/USD Trades at 1.1130 as Markets Eye US GDP and Jobless Claims Data​

On Thursday, the dollar index traded near 101 after gaining 0.5% in the previous session and the EUR/USD pair trades at 1.1130. Investors are awaiting key US economic data to assess the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction. Today's releases include the second estimate for Q2 GDP and the latest initial jobless claims, with the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE price index, due on Friday. Despite this, the dollar index remained close to its lowest levels in 13 months, as expectations mount for the Fed to begin interest rate cuts in September. Fed officials have hinted at imminent rate reductions due to easing inflation and growing labor market concerns, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell stating at Jackson Hole last week that it’s time to adjust policy restrictiveness. Markets are forecasting around 100 basis points in total rate cuts for the year.
In the pair, which has been trading sideways since the beginning of the week, the first support level is at 1.1100. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.1060 and 1.1000. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.1150; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.1200 and 1.1250.

Post automatically merged: Aug 29, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.29.2024​

Gold Climbs as Fed Rate Cut Expected and Chinese Imports Rise​

On Thursday, gold climbed above $2,510 per ounce, nearing record highs as expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts continued to encourage the metal. Investors are awaiting further details on the scale of these cuts. Later today, the second estimate for Q2 GDP and the latest initial jobless claims will be released, with the PCE price index report, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, due on Friday. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 63.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut and a 36.5% chance of a 50 basis point reduction for the anticipated September rate cut. Markets are also anticipating a total of 100 basis points in rate cuts for the remainder of the year, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets. Additionally, official data showed that China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong rose by 17% in July, marking the first increase since March.
Technically the first support level is at 2,510. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,495 and 2,470. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,525; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,550 and 2,585.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.30.2024​

Yen Gains, Gold Rises as Markets Eye PCE Report​

The yen strengthened due to the divergent monetary policies between Japan and the US. The dollar remained stable as investors awaited the PCE price index report, which could influence the Fed's decision on interest rates. Gold prices rose on the expectation of rate cuts and geopolitical tensions. The pound sterling weakened against the US dollar as traders anticipated higher interest rates in the UK compared to the US. Silver prices were volatile, influenced by the gold market and the upcoming PCE data.

Post automatically merged: Sep 2, 2024

Dollar Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.30.2024​

Dollar Holds Ground as Market Awaits Fed Easing​

The dollar index remained around 101.4 on Friday after rising for two consecutive sessions as investors awaited the July PCE price index report. The market is looking for signs that prices are decreasing, which would give the Fed more flexibility to lower interest rates. The central bank is expected to start easing in September, with about 100 basis points of total rate cuts anticipated this year. On Thursday, the dollar index rose by 0.3% as recent US GDP data and initial jobless claims helped ease recession fears. Nevertheless, the dollar is set to experience its largest monthly decline since November of last year due to dovish Fed expectations. Additionally, the upcoming Eurozone inflation figures will shape the direction of the EUR/USD pair before the ECB’s interest rate decision.
The first support level is at 1.1060 for the pair. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.1000 and 1.0950. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.1100; if this level is surpassed, the following targets will be 1.1150 and 1.1200.

Post automatically merged: Sep 2, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 08.30.2024​

Gold Gains on Softening US Economy​

Gold eased to around $2,510 per ounce on Friday but remains on track for its second consecutive monthly gain. This is due in part to anticipated rate cuts by major central banks, which have reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Recent US data showed that the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measures, the headline and core PCE price indices, were revised downward, highlighting a more significant slowdown in the second quarter. Additionally, initial jobless claims fell below expectations, underscoring a softening labor market. US GDP growth for the second quarter was revised upward, yet markets still expect 100 basis points of rate cuts over the Fed’s remaining three meetings this year. The ECB is also expected to implement rate cuts, given the rapid deceleration in price pressures. Furthermore, gold’s safe-haven appeal has been strengthened by escalating conflict in the Middle East.
Technically the first support level is at 2,510. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,495 and 2,470. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,528; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,550 and 2,585.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.02.2024​

Dollar Strengthens as US Economic Data Shapes Currency and Commodity Trends​

The dollar index holds steady at 101.7, with the EUR/USD trading at 1.1044 as market participants recalibrate expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in light of recent inflation data. The USD/JPY has weakened, falling to near a two-week low around 146 due to stronger dollar dynamics and ongoing considerations of potential BoJ rate hikes. Gold has dropped below $2,500, pressured by a stronger dollar and rising bond yields, while GBP/USD has rebounded to 1.3135 amid anticipation of the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Silver remains at $28.45, showing a negative divergence from gold as mixed economic signals and recession fears influence its price movement.

 

[zForex]

Dollar Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.02.2024​

Dollar Index Holds at 101.7, EUR/USD at 1.1044​

The dollar index remained around 101.7 and the EUR/USD 1.1044 on Monday. Investors have scaled back their expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts following the latest inflation data and are now looking ahead to a crucial US jobs report later this week. Data released on Friday showed that US core PCE prices increased steadily in July, reducing the likelihood of a substantial 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September. Attention is now shifting to the August jobs report as the Fed's focus moves from inflation to the labor market. Recent comments from Fed policymakers have highlighted concerns about a weakening jobs market while expressing confidence that inflation will eventually meet its target. The dollar maintained its gains across major currencies, reaching a two-week high against the euro.
In the pair the first support level is at 1.1000. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.0950 and 1.0900. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.1100; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.1150 and 1.1200.

Post automatically merged: Sep 2, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.02.2024​

GBP/USD Rebounds to 1.3135 in Early Asian Session​

During Monday's early Asian session, the GBP/USD pair climbed to about 1.3135, reversing a losing trend for three days. With no significant economic data due from the UK this week, GBP/USD movements will largely hinge on the performance of the USD. The focus is now on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for August, scheduled for release on Friday. Current expectations of Federal Reserve easing are weighing on the dollar. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested that a rate cut might be on the horizon due to concerns about the labor market. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are now anticipating a nearly 70% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September, with a 30% chance of a 50 basis point reduction. In contrast, investors are increasingly confident that the Bank of England (BoE) will pursue a gradual policy-easing approach for the rest of the year, which could strengthen the Pound Sterling. A Reuters poll indicates that economists expect the BoE to implement one more 25 basis point rate cut this year.
For GBP/USD, the initial support is at 1.3100, followed by 1.3050 and 1.3000 below. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.3190, with subsequent levels at 1.3230 and 1.3265 if the pair breaks above this resistance.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.03.2024​

The Dollar Index Keeps Steady While Yen Rebounds, Gold & Silver are Stagnant​

The dollar index held steady at 101.6, as investors awaited key US jobs data that could influence the Federal Reserve's rate decision. The EUR/USD pair faced resistance at 1.1100, with support at 1.1000. The Japanese yen rebounded after a four-day decline but faced challenges due to disappointing manufacturing data and potential delays in rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. The USD/JPY pair saw resistance at 147.20 and support at 146.30. Gold prices fell below $2,500, influenced by a stronger dollar and expectations of Fed rate cuts, with resistance at $2,505 and support at $2,485. GBP/USD traded in a narrow range, awaiting US jobs data later in the week, with resistance at 1.3190 and support at 1.3100. Silver remained steady at $28.45, with resistance at $29.00 and support at $28.00, amid mixed economic signals and potential Fed rate cuts.

Post automatically merged: Sep 3, 2024

Dollar Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.03.2024​

Dollar Index Steady Ahead of US Jobs Data​

The dollar index held steady around 101.6 on Tuesday as investors prepared for crucial US jobs data this week, which could impact expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Key reports include the jobless claims data scheduled for release on Thursday and the August payrolls report on Friday. Fed officials have indicated a willingness to lower borrowing costs due to concerns about the labor market. Recent data released on Friday showed that US core PCE prices increased steadily in July, dampening hopes for a significant 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September. Currently, markets are pricing in a 69% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut this month, with a 31% probability for a larger 50 basis point reduction. The dollar reached two-week highs against the euro. Also in Europe, the ECB is also expected to implement rate cuts, following the sharp slowdown in inflation reported in August’s preliminary figures.
In the EUR/USD pair, the first support level is at 1.1000. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.0950 and 1.0900. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.1100; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.1150 and 1.1200.

Post automatically merged: Sep 3, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.03.2024​

Gold Prices Dip Ahead of Key US Economic Reports​

Gold remained below $2,500 per ounce on Tuesday, continuing its pullback from last week’s record highs as investors awaited US data to adjust their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. This week’s key data points include the ISM surveys, JOLTS job openings, ADP employment report, and non-farm payrolls. Several Fed officials have recently raised concerns about increasing risks to the labor market. Markets anticipate a total of 100 basis points in rate cuts over the Fed’s remaining three meetings this year, which would reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets.
Technically the first support level is at 2,485. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,475 and 2,430. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,505; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,530 and 2,550.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.04.2024​

Global Markets Steady on US Recession Fears​

Financial markets witnessed mixed performances on Wednesday, with key currency pairs and commodities reacting to economic data and central bank speculations. The EUR/USD remained steady at 1.1050 as weak US manufacturing data reignited recession fears, affecting expectations for the Fed’s upcoming rate cut. Similarly, the Japanese yen strengthened toward 145 per dollar due to safe-haven demand and anticipation of potential BoJ policy adjustments. Meanwhile, gold steadied above $2,490, as investors evaluated the Fed’s rate outlook amid weak economic indicators, while GBP/USD dipped below 1.3100, pressured by US recession concerns. Silver hovered around $28.00, fluctuating with ongoing economic uncertainty and global conflicts. Markets now await crucial US labor data, which could significantly influence future central bank decisions.

Post automatically merged: Sep 4, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.04.2024​

EUR/USD Steady at 1.1050 on Recession Fears​

The EUR/USD traded at the 1.1050 level, and the dollar index held steady around 101.7 on Wednesday morning, following a two-week high reached the previous session, as safe-haven demand surged due to weak US manufacturing data rekindling recession concerns. The ISM Manufacturing PMI indicated that factory activity contracted for the fifth month and at a slightly faster pace than expected. US labor market reports, including the latest JOLTS, weekly jobless claims, and monthly payrolls are expected to be released, which could affect the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cut this month. Currently, markets are pricing in roughly a 60% chance of a 25 basis point cut, compared to a 40% likelihood of a larger 50 basis point reduction.
The first support level is at 1.1000 for the EUR/USD pair. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.0950 and 1.0900. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.1100; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.1150 and 1.1200.

Post automatically merged: Sep 4, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.04.2024​

GBP/USD Dips Below 1.3100 on US Recession Fears​

GBP/USD weakened, briefly dipping below 1.3100 as the currency pair struggled to maintain its bullish stance with a short-term bearish correction. The US dollar gained traction after new Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures from the US fell short of market expectations, reigniting fears of a potential US recession. With minimal UK data scheduled for Wednesday, attention remains on the US labor market. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for August came in at 47.2, below the median market forecast of 47.5, and while it was an improvement from July’s multi-month low of 46.8, it was insufficient to bolster market confidence. This prompted investors to retreat from recent bullish positions. The focus now shifts to Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which will be the last major labor data release before the Federal Reserve's rate decision on September 18. The NFP report is expected to significantly influence market expectations for the magnitude of a Fed rate cut, with investors fully anticipating the start of a new rate-cutting cycle this month.
For GBP/USD, the initial support lies at 1.3100, followed by 1.3050 and 1.3000 below. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.3150, with subsequent levels at 1.3190 and 1.3265 if the pair breaks above this resistance.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.05.2024​

Economic Data Weighs on Markets: Dollar Stabilizes, Yen Gains, and Gold Seesaws Ahead of Fed Decisions​

The currency and commodity markets have shown mixed reactions during a backdrop of fluctuating economic data and central bank policy speculation. The dollar index holds steady as expectations adjust following recent job data, suggesting less aggressive rate cuts by the Fed. This has caused the EUR/USD to hover around 1.1045, closely watching for further data releases that might sway monetary policy. Concurrently, the yen has seen some strength against the dollar, buoyed by domestic wage growth and safe-haven demand, despite weak manufacturing outputs. Gold's price fluctuates near $2,500 per ounce as investors parse through US economic reports, speculating on the extent and timing of Fed rate adjustments. Meanwhile, GBP/USD shows resilience, supported by optimistic retail spending figures from the UK and a relatively dovish stance expected from the Bank of England. Silver prices have ticked up, reflecting heightened expectations for a forthcoming Fed rate cut, as market participants eagerly await further job reports to solidify their forecasts for interest rate trajectories.

Post automatically merged: Sep 5, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.05.2024​

Gold Awaits US Jobs Report Amid Rate Cut Speculation​

Gold remained close to $2,500 per ounce on Thursday as investors awaited the crucial US jobs report for further insights into the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, which could lower the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. On Wednesday, JOLTS data showed a much larger-than-expected decline in job openings, hitting 2021 lows and reinforcing expectations of a slowing labor market, which fueled speculation for a significant 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed this month. Additionally, the sharp drop in US factory activity reported by the ISM PMI has cast doubt on the US economy’s ability to withstand higher interest rates. Consequently, investors have increased their expectations to 125 basis points in rate cuts over the Fed's remaining three meetings this year, up from last week's consensus of 100 basis points. The key US jobs data is set to be released on Friday.
Technically the first support level is at 2,485. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,475 and 2,430. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,505; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,530 and 2,550.

Post automatically merged: Sep 5, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 09.05.2024​

GBP/USD Maintains Positive Bias Amid BoE Rate Speculations​

During the Asian session on Thursday, the GBP/USD pair traded with a positive bias in the mid-1.3100s, though it lacked strong follow-through buying and remained below the weekly high reached the previous day. The British Pound (GBP) continues to be supported by expectations that the Bank of England's (BoE) rate-cutting cycle will be slower compared to the Eurozone or the United States. This sentiment was bolstered by a British Retail Consortium survey showing a 1.0% year-on-year increase in spending for August, the strongest rise since March. Additionally, a weaker US Dollar (USD) has been a key factor driving the GBP/USD pair higher. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released on Wednesday revealed a drop in job openings to 7.673 million in July, the lowest level since January 2021. Dovish comments from Fed officials have increased expectations for a significant interest rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 17-18, pushing US Treasury bond yields to over a one-year low. This has kept USD bulls on the defensive and provided some support to the GBP/USD pair.
For GBP/USD, the initial support lies at 1.3090, followed by 1.3050 and 1.3000 below. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.3150, with subsequent levels at 1.3190 and 1.3265 if the pair breaks above this resistance.