Daily Market Analysis By zForex

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.07.2024​

Markets Lifted by Strong U.S. Jobs Data and Geopolitical Tensions​

The dollar gained on solid U.S. labor data, with the nonfarm payrolls report showing 254,000 new jobs in September, reducing expectations of a major rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November.

As a result, the EUR/USD pair continued its decline, while the Japanese yen weakened amid cautious remarks from Japanese officials. Gold prices retreated as robust labor figures limited expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts, though Middle East tensions may offer near-term support. The pound fell after Bank of England Governor Bailey’s comments fueled speculation of a rate cut, and silver rose, benefiting from safe-haven demand and China’s hard efforts.

Post automatically merged: Oct 7, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.07.2024​

Gold Retreats Amid Strong US Labor Data, Eyes on Fed Meeting and CPI​

Gold prices dipped below $2,650 per ounce on Monday, continuing a retreat from recent record levels. This decline follows reports of a robust U.S. labor market, which diminishes the likelihood of the Federal Reserve pursuing aggressive interest rate cuts. In September, nonfarm payrolls rose by 254,000—far surpassing the anticipated 14,000—while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%. This data eases fears of a weakening job market, thereby limiting expectations for significant rate reductions in this cycle. Typically, lower interest rates lessen the opportunity cost associated with holding non-yielding assets like gold. Investors are now looking ahead to the Fed's meeting minutes due Wednesday and the consumer price index report set for Thursday for further insights. Additionally, gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset is bolstered by escalating violence in the Middle East, which may support prices in the near term.

In gold, the first support is at 2630, with subsequent levels at 2600 and 2550 below that. The initial resistance is at 2685, followed by 2700 and 2730 if this level is surpassed.

Post automatically merged: Oct 7, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.07.2024​

GBP/USD Weakens After Bailey’s Comments Fuel Rate Cut Speculation​

The British pound weakened to $1.31, retreating from the March 2022 highs reached in late September, following comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey that heightened expectations for another rate cut in November. In an interview with the Guardian, Bailey suggested that the central bank might act more swiftly to lower interest rates if further positive inflation news emerges. As a result, markets are now anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut next month, with a 40% chance of a similar reduction in December. The Bank of England held interest rates steady at 5% in September after a quarter-point cut in August. The pound has also benefited from a general weakness in the dollar, as traders foresee a more aggressive monetary easing from the Federal Reserve compared to other major central banks, including the BoE. In September, the sterling appreciated by 1.9%.

In GBP/USD, the first support is at 1.3085, with subsequent levels at 1.3050 and 1.3000 below that. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 1.3160, followed by 1.3200 and 1.3250 if this level is surpassed.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.08.2024​

Strong U.S. Jobs and Rising Yields Boost Dollar, Gold Falls​

The U.S. dollar strengthened, supported by rising Treasury yields and diminishing expectations for significant rate cuts following strong September nonfarm payrolls.

The yen stabilized after earlier declines, while gold fell for the fifth consecutive session as markets await U.S. inflation data for further Fed guidance. Silver holds steady, with upcoming U.S. economic releases likely to shape its direction. The GBP/USD pair remains focused on external influences, primarily U.S. Fed remarks, amid limited UK economic updates.

Post automatically merged: Oct 9, 2024

Dollar Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.08.2024​

Dollar Holds Strong as Treasury Yields Rise and Fed Cut Bets Diminish​

The dollar index stabilized around 102.4 on Tuesday, hovering near its highest levels since mid-August as investors adjusted their expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts following a robust September jobs report. Markets now estimate an 87% likelihood that the Fed will implement a modest 25 basis point rate reduction in November, while completely dismissing the possibility of a larger half-percentage point cut, as indicated by CME’s FedWatch Tool. The dollar also benefited from rising US Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-year bond yields surpassing 4% for the first time since early August. Investors are now looking forward to releasing the latest Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday and the consumer price index report on Thursday for further guidance on interest rates. Additionally, increasing tensions in the Middle East have continued to elevate safe-haven demand for the dollar.

In the EUR/USD pair, the initial resistance will be at 1.1000 followed by 1.1050 and 1.1100 if this level is surpassed. On the downside, the first support is at 1.0950, with subsequent supports at 1.0900 and 1.0850 below.

Post automatically merged: Oct 9, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.08.2024​

Gold Falls for Fifth Session as Markets Focus on US Inflation Data and Fed​

Gold prices fell below $2,640 per ounce on Tuesday, marking a decline for the fifth straight session. This drop was influenced by a stronger jobs report, which diminished hopes for more aggressive interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Currently, markets are anticipating an 86% chance that the Fed will opt for a modest 25 basis point rate cut in November. Lower interest rates typically make holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold more attractive. Traders are also focused on key Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data set to be released this week, as well as the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and comments from various Fed officials for additional insights. Additionally, gold's status as a safe-haven asset is being reinforced by rising tensions in the Middle East. On a related note, China's central bank has not added to its gold reserves for the fifth month in a row as of September.

In gold, the first support is at 2630, with subsequent levels at 2600 and 2550 below that. Above, the initial resistance is at 2685, followed by 2700 and 2730 if this level is surpassed.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.09.2024​

Dollar Holds Gains as Markets Await Fed Insights and US Inflation Data​

The dollar index remained strong near 102.5 as investors focused on the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes and the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for further guidance on U.S. interest rate policy.

Last week’s robust U.S. jobs report reduced expectations for a large rate cut, with markets now pricing in an 85% chance of a 25 basis point reduction in November. In other markets, the yen stabilized at 147.7 ahead of the Fed’s minutes, and gold retreated to $2,620 per ounce amid strong labor data. The British pound and silver also held steady as traders awaited U.S. data releases to determine future market direction. The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to support safe-haven demand for the dollar and gold, albeit gold's gains have been capped by solid U.S. economic data.

Post automatically merged: Oct 9, 2024

USD/JPY Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.09.2024​

USD/JPY Traders Eye FOMC Minutes for Clues on US Monetary Policy​

On Wednesday, the Japanese yen began trading at around 148.50. Given the absence of significant economic data from Japan for the day, it is anticipated that the primary drivers influencing the currency pair will come from the United States. In particular, the release of the FOMC meeting minutes is expected to play a crucial role in shaping market movements for the yen. Investors will closely monitor these minutes for insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction, as any hints regarding future interest rate adjustments could significantly impact the yen’s valuation against the dollar. With market participants on edge regarding potential shifts in U.S. economic policy, the FOMC minutes will likely provide clarity on the Fed’s stance amid ongoing economic developments.

In USD/JPY, the first support is at 147.30, with subsequent levels at 145.20 and 144.00 below that. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 149.30, followed by 150.00 and 151.00 if this level is breached.

Post automatically merged: Oct 9, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.09.2024​

GBP/USD Focuses on US FOMC Minutes Amid Lack of UK Data​

On Wednesday, the British pound started trading at approximately 1.3084. With no significant economic data scheduled for release from the UK throughout the day, it is expected that the primary influences on the currency pair will originate from the United States. In particular, the minutes from the recent FOMC meeting are likely to have a substantial impact on market dynamics for the pound.

In GBP/USD, the first support is at 1.3080, with subsequent levels at 1.3050 and 1.3000 below that. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 1.3145, followed by 1.3200 and 1.3250 if this level is surpassed.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.10.2024​

Dollar Holds Near Highs Due to US CPI Data and Fed Outlook​

The dollar index remained strong around 102.9 as markets awaited the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s rate decision in November.

While a 25 basis point rate cut is expected, recent strong US jobs data has tempered expectations for more aggressive cuts. The Japanese yen fell below 149 per dollar, pressured by weaker domestic data and a stronger dollar. Meanwhile, gold rebounded above $2,610 per ounce, recovering from a six-day decline ahead of the US inflation report, with ongoing geopolitical tensions supporting its safe-haven appeal. The GBP/USD pair focused on upcoming US economic data, with potential volatility anticipated from inflation and unemployment reports. Silver prices also looked to US data for direction, as traders weighed its safe-haven status amid market uncertainties.

Post automatically merged: Oct 11, 2024

Dollar Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.10.2024​

Dollar Index Holds Near Two-Month High as Markets Await US CPI Data​

On Thursday, the dollar index remained around 102.9, maintaining its highest levels in nearly two months as investors braced for the September Consumer Price Index report, which could impact the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in November. The minutes from the Fed's September meeting indicated a division among policymakers regarding the pace of rate cuts, ultimately opting for a significant 50 basis point reduction to balance inflation targets with concerns over the labor market. Following last week’s strong US jobs report, traders have tempered their expectations for aggressive rate cuts from the Fed. Currently, the markets estimate an 83% chance that the Fed will implement a more modest 25 basis point cut in November, effectively dismissing the possibility of another half-percentage point reduction. While the dollar maintained gains against most major currencies, it experienced a slight pullback against the New Zealand dollar, likely reflecting a technical correction.

In the EUR/USD pair, the initial resistance will be at 1.0950 followed by 1.1000 and 1.1050 if this level is surpassed. On the downside, the first support is at 1.0900, with subsequent supports at 1.0850 and 1.0800 below that.

Post automatically merged: Oct 11, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.10.2024​

Gold Rises Above $2,610 Ahead of Key US Inflation Data​

On Thursday, gold climbed above $2,610 per ounce after experiencing six consecutive days of decline. This uptick comes as investors await key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data later in the day, which could provide further insights into the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook. Recently, gold prices had dipped to their lowest point in nearly three weeks, largely due to fading expectations for more aggressive policy moves from the Fed. Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting indicated a split among policymakers regarding potential rate cuts. Some members favored a more substantial half-point reduction, while others preferred a modest quarter-point cut, emphasizing the need for confirmation of a sustained decline in inflation and showing reduced concern about the labor market. This perspective aligns with last week’s jobs report, which highlighted resilience in employment figures. Currently, the market is pricing in an 83% probability of a 25 basis point cut in November. Despite these developments, gold continues to attract investors as a safe-haven asset, particularly in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

In gold, the first support is at 2600, with subsequent levels at 2550 and 2500 below that. Above, the initial resistance is at 2635, followed by 2660 and 2685 if this level is surpassed.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.11.2024​

Markets Eye US Inflation and Fed Signals, Pressuring Gold, Yen, and Pound​

The dollar index remained strong near 102.9 on Friday, set for a second consecutive weekly gain as US inflation data and Federal Reserve signals dampened hopes for significant rate cuts.

While consumer inflation slowed less than expected in September, initial jobless claims surged, fueling mixed expectations for future Fed policy moves. The Japanese yen remained weak, hovering around 148.7 per dollar, pressured by the dollar's strength and cautious Fed outlook. Meanwhile, gold climbed above $2,640 per ounce, gaining amid market uncertainty over US inflation data, though it remains poised for a weekly decline. The pound faced pressure around 1.3050 following US inflation data, with traders now awaiting UK GDP figures. Silver rose to $31.20 as markets await key US producer inflation data, which could provide further insights into economic trends.

Post automatically merged: Oct 11, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.11.2024​

Gold Rises Above $2,640 as Traders Assess Fed Policy Amid Mixed US Data​

On Friday, gold climbed above $2,640 per ounce, building on gains from the previous session as traders continued to evaluate the Federal Reserve's policy direction amid mixed economic data. US headline inflation for September decelerated less than anticipated, while core inflation increased more than expected, interrupting recent progress in easing price pressures. This development has strengthened the perception that the Fed will implement rate cuts at a slower pace than previously believed, as suggested by the latest FOMC minutes released on Wednesday. In addition, a rise in jobless claims has raised questions about the resilience of the US labor market under restrictive interest rates. Currently, there is an 86% chance of a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate in November. Investors are also awaiting producer inflation data later today for further insights into price trends. Despite Friday’s uptick, gold is on track to record its second consecutive weekly decline.

In gold, the first support is at 2600, with subsequent levels at 2550 and 2500 below that. Above, the initial resistance is at 2645, followed by 2660 and 2685 if this level is surpassed.

Post automatically merged: Oct 11, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.11.2024​

GBP/USD Under Pressure as Dollar Strengthens After US Inflation Data​

The pound is trading around 1.3050 this morning. Following the release of US inflation data yesterday, the dollar index strengthened, resulting in a weakening of all dollar-denominated assets. Today, the UK will release its GDP figures, which are expected to introduce significant volatility in the pound, especially amid expectations for interest rate cuts in November and December.

In GBP/USD, the first support is at 1.3045, with subsequent levels at 1.3000 and 1.2950 below that. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 1.3100, followed by 1.3145 and 1.3200 if this level is surpassed.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.14.2024​

Geopolitical Tensions and Fed Outlook Boost Safe-Haven Demand​

The EUR/USD declined to 1.0920 as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and China-Taiwan conflicts weigh on risk sentiment, boosting demand for the US dollar.

Expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November increased to 87% after the US PPI data. Meanwhile, the euro faces pressure from a dovish ECB outlook. USD/JPY is approaching August lows due to a stronger dollar, while gold holds steady around $2,655, supported by safe-haven demand. GBP/USD dropped to 1.3060 amid safe-haven flows and dovish BoE signals, and silver rallied to $31.30, benefiting from geopolitical risks and expectations of slower Fed rate cuts.

Post automatically merged: Oct 14, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.14.2024​

EUR/USD Declines as US PPI Data and ECB Dovish Outlook Weigh on Euro​

The EUR/USD pair continued its decline, nearing 1.0920 during the early Asian session on Monday. Risk aversion stemming from rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and conflicts between China and Taiwan has put selling pressure on riskier currencies like the euro. On Monday, a spokesperson for the US Department of State expressed serious concerns over the People's Liberation Army's military exercises in the Taiwan Strait and around Taiwan, stating they would closely monitor the situation and collaborate with allies on shared concerns. Any signs of escalating tensions could drive safe-haven flows toward the dollar, putting additional pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Traders are anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve in November, following Friday's US Producer Price Index (PPI) data. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of this rate cut has risen to approximately 87%, up from 83% before the PPI report. Meanwhile, the euro is facing challenges as the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to lower interest rates further in its remaining monetary policy meetings this year. The ECB's dovish outlook has been reinforced by a quick decline in inflationary pressures within the Eurozone and a 'fragile' economic recovery.

In the pair, the first support level is at 1.0900. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.0870 and 1.0830. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.0950; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.1020 and 1.1060.

Post automatically merged: Oct 14, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.14.2024​

Gold Holds Steady at $2,655 as Markets Assess Fed Rate Outlook​

On Monday, gold remained steady at around $2,655 per ounce after a 1% increase in the previous session. Markets are still evaluating the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook considering recent inflation data. Reports revealed that US producer prices remained unchanged in September, alongside a rise in jobless claims, which raises questions about the resilience of the US labor market to higher interest rates. Although headline inflation decreased less than expected, core inflation rose more than anticipated. Currently, the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut to the fed funds rate in November is at 87%. Investors are also awaiting further economic data, such as retail sales figures and comments from several Fed officials, for more insights. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are enhancing gold's appeal as a safe haven.

Technically the first support level is at 2,645. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,625 and 2,600. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,665; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,685 and 2,700.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.15.2024​

Global Markets Brace for ECB Rate Cut​

The ECB is expected to announce a third interest rate cut on Thursday due to concerns about sluggish economic growth and falling inflation.

A strong US dollar is contributing to the downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. A decline in the yuan and dovish comments from the Bank of Japan Governor and new Prime Minister further weakened the yen. Gold prices stabilized on Tuesday, supported by increasing tensions between China and Taiwan and ongoing violence in the Middle East. The British pound strengthened against the US dollar after the UK's unemployment rate fell to 4.0% in August, beating market expectations. Silver prices have fallen due to concerns about demand, particularly in China.

Post automatically merged: Oct 16, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.15.2024​

Euro Plunges as ECB Eyes Further Easing​

The EUR/USD pair continued its downward trend on Tuesday, slipping for the second day to around 1.0890, nearing its lowest level since August 8, reached the previous day. The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to announce its policy decision on Thursday, with expectations of a third interest rate cut in this easing cycle due to growing concerns about sluggish economic growth. Additionally, inflation in the Eurozone has fallen below the ECB's 2% target for the first time since 2021, reinforcing the case for further easing measures. This backdrop and a strong US dollar are significantly pressuring the EUR/USD pair.

In the pair, the first support level is at 1.0875. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.0830 and 1.0800. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.0900; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.0920 and 1.0950.

Post automatically merged: Oct 16, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.15.2024​

Pound Surges on Unexpected UK Job Growth​

GBP/USD traded at 1.3050 in response to the latest employment data. The UK's ILO Unemployment Rate declined to 4.0% for the three months ending in August, down from 4.1% in July, according to data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This figure was better than the market expectation of 4.1%. The positive employment data may take on greater significance following tomorrow's CPI release, particularly in relation to potential interest rate cuts.

For GBP/USD, the initial support lies at 1.3000, followed by 1.2960 and 1.2925 below. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.3100, with subsequent levels at 1.3160 and 1.3200 if the pair breaks above this resistance.

Post automatically merged: Oct 16, 2024

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.16.2024​

Markets Shift Focus to Central Bank Decisions Amid Tensions​

The EUR/USD ended its four-day losing streak, stabilizing around 1.0890 as traders await key decisions from the ECB and upcoming Eurozone inflation data.

In USD/JPY, the yen continues to struggle near 149 as the dollar rallies on solid US data, while the BOJ signals caution in future rate hikes. Gold remains steady at $2,665 per ounce, with investors focused on the Fed's next moves and rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. Meanwhile, GBP/USD has dropped to 1.3010 following disappointing UK CPI data, increasing expectations for a Bank of England rate cut. Silver (XAG/USD) continues to gain, supported by safe-haven demand and rising Middle East tensions.

Post automatically merged: Oct 16, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.16.2024​

EUR/USD Ends Losing Streak, Focus Shifts to ECB and HICP Data​

EUR/USD stabilized around 1.0890 during the Asian session on Wednesday, ending a four-day losing streak. The euro may face downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to cut both the Main Refinancing Operations and the Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points in Thursday's policy meeting. Traders are closely monitoring the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data from the Eurozone, set to be released on Thursday, ahead of the ECB's decision. Additionally, the ECB's Monetary Policy Statement and President Christine Lagarde's remarks during the post-meeting press conference will be crucial, as they could offer insights into the bank's future monetary policy direction.

In the EUR/USD pair, the first support level is at 1.0875. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.0830 and 1.0800. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.0900; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.0920 and 1.0950.

Post automatically merged: Oct 16, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.16.2024​

Gold Holds Steady at $2,665 as Investors Eye Fed's Next Move​

Gold was trading around $2,665 per ounce on Wednesday, maintaining gains from the previous session as investors sought more signals to evaluate the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction. The precious metal gained traction on Tuesday after the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields dipped slightly in response to disappointing manufacturing data. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index unexpectedly fell in October to its lowest level in five months, indicating a contraction in business activity in New York after previously showing growth in September. Investors are now focused on U.S. retail sales data set to be released on Thursday and a speech by Fed Governor Waller on Friday for further insights. Currently, markets are pricing in nearly a 98% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in the fed funds rate in November. Additionally, heightened tensions in the Middle East may support upward momentum for gold.

Technically, the first support level is at 2,640. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,630 and 2,605. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,675; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,685 and 2,700.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.17.2024​

CB Decisions and Geopolitical Tensions Drive Market Movements​

The EUR/USD continues its decline as the US dollar strengthens ahead of the ECB’s anticipated rate cut, trading near 1.0850.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY hovers around 149.3, reflecting a stronger dollar and cautious remarks from the Bank of Japan on rate normalization. Gold rallies to $2,680 as dovish central bank outlooks and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East support demand for safe-haven assets. GBP/USD remains bearish, trading below 1.3000, as UK inflation data fuels speculation of a BoE rate cut. Silver holds steady at $31.60, supported by declining US Treasury yields and Fed rate cut expectations.

Post automatically merged: Oct 18, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.17.2024​

EUR/USD Pressured by US Dollar Strength, ECB Rate Cut in Focus​

The EUR/USD pair continued its decline, approaching 1.0850 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The strengthening of the US dollar is applying selling pressure on this major currency pair. Investors are particularly focused on the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting, where another interest rate cut is anticipated. At its September meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) took the rare step of reducing its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point, setting it in the range of 4.75% to 5.00%. However, investors now expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to implement modest rate cuts over the next year, which supports the dollar's strength. Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated on Monday that future rate cuts are likely to be less aggressive than the significant reduction seen in September, expressing concern that the economy might still be operating at a higher level. Later on Thursday, market participants will look for insights from US Retail Sales data, which is projected to increase from 0.1% in August to 0.3% in September. Meanwhile, the ECB is expected to announce its third interest rate cut of the year during its October meeting, with money markets nearly fully pricing in three additional rate reductions through March 2025. ECB President Christine Lagarde mentioned last month that recent developments have bolstered the ECB’s confidence in achieving its inflation target in a timely manner, which will be considered during the October meeting. The dovish remarks from ECB policymakers, along with lower inflation data from the Eurozone, could put additional pressure on the euro against the US dollar.

In the pair, the first support level is at 1.0830. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.0795 and 1.0755. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.0875; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.0920 and 1.0950.

Post automatically merged: Oct 18, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.17.2024​

GBP/USD Remains Bearish as UK CPI Decline Fuels BoE Rate Cut Concerns​

The GBP/USD pair remains below the 1.3000 psychological level during the Asian session on Thursday, sitting close to its lowest point since August 20, which was reached the previous day. The current fundamental landscape appears to favor bearish traders, indicating that the most likely movement for spot prices is downward. On Wednesday, data revealed that the annual UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed from 2.2% in August to 1.7% last month, marking the lowest rate since April 2021. This has fueled speculation about a possible interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in November, further weighing on the British Pound (GBP). Additionally, the recent rally of the US Dollar (USD) to its highest level since early August supports the short-term negative outlook for the GBP/USD pair.

For GBP/USD, the initial support lies at 1.2965, followed by 1.2900 and 1.2830 below. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.3000, with subsequent levels at 1.3040 and 1.3100 if the pair breaks above this resistance.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.18.2024​

ECB's Third Rate Cut Sparks Euro Weakness​

The US economy showed mixed signals in the latest data.

Retail sales beat expectations, while initial jobless claims fell but didn't meet the target. The ECB cut interest rates for the third time this year, and the euro faced downward pressure. The Japanese yen traded lower as inflation rates declined. Gold prices surged to a new record high amid rising geopolitical tensions and market uncertainties. Silver prices also increased, reflecting the broader rally in precious metals. The GBP/USD pair gained ground after the UK's inflation data surprised to the downside, suggesting potential interest rate cuts.

 

[zForex]

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.18.2024​

US Jobless Claims Fall, but Retail Sales Beat Expectations​

The EUR/USD ended its 4-day losing streak, trading around 1.0840. The USD gained strength, reaching a 2-month high of 103.87 on a strong US Retail Sales report. The CME FedWatch Tool suggests a 90.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in November and a 74.0% chance of another in December. US Retail Sales increased by 0.4% MoM in September, exceeding market expectations of a 0.3% rise. US Initial Jobless Claims fell by 19,000 for the week ending October 11, dropping to 241,000, failing to meet the expected 260,000 target.

The euro faced downward pressure following the ECB's policy decision on Thursday. The ECB cut its Main Refinancing Operations Rate and the Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points to 3.40% and 3.25%, respectively. This marks the first consecutive rate cut by the ECB in 13 years. This decision follows a notable decline in inflation, which peaked at 10.6% in October 2022 and fell to 1.7% in September. During the post-meeting press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde left the markets uncertain about the timing of future rate cuts but indicated that the Eurozone economy is on course for a soft landing.

In the pair, the first support level is at 1.0810. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.0760 and 1.0740. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.0875; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.0920 and 1.0950.

Post automatically merged: Oct 18, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.18.2024​

Gold Prices Top $2,700 as Investors Seek Safe Haven​

Gold prices surged past $2,700 per ounce on Friday, reaching a new record high. This increase was fueled by global demand for safe-haven assets and expectations for further interest rate cuts from major central banks. The European Central Bank cut rates for the third time this year, lowering the deposit rate to 3.25% as anticipated, while noting that the disinflationary process is "well on track."

Gold also benefited from rising tensions in the Middle East, particularly following the Israeli military's confirmation that Yahya Sinwar, a prominent Hamas leader, was killed in combat, raising concerns about regional escalation. Additionally, bullion prices rose as investors moved away from riskier assets due to disappointing fiscal measures in China related to its ongoing property crisis and uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election. Strong economic data from the US limited gold's upward momentum by supporting a less dovish outlook from the Federal Reserve.

The first support level is at 2,685 for gold, and if this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,640 and 2,605. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,730; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,760 and 2,800.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.21.2024​

Fed Policy and Global Tensions Drive Market Sentiment Across Key Pairs​

The EUR/USD stabilizes near 1.0860 as traders await key Fed and ECB policy decisions, with a focus on potential rate cuts.

USD/JPY strengthens toward 149 following warnings of possible intervention by Japan’s government amid the yen's slide. Gold surges to record highs at $2,730, driven by escalating Middle East conflicts and expectations of looser global monetary policies. GBP/USD fluctuates around 1.3050, pressured by UK inflation data that fuels expectations of BoE rate cuts. Silver surges to $34.10, supported by China's positive news and a PBoC rate cut.

Post automatically merged: Oct 21, 2024

Yen Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.21.2024​

Yen Strengthens Toward 149 as Japan Warns of Potential Intervention​

The Japanese yen strengthened towards 149 per dollar on Monday, marking a second consecutive day of gains. This followed a drop to the 150 level last week, which elicited new verbal warnings from the government and raised concerns about potential currency intervention. Last week, the yen fell to an 11-week low of 150.32 as the dollar strengthened due to strong US economic data and increasing speculation about another Trump presidency. Additionally, data released on Friday indicated that Japan’s headline and core inflation rates slowed to five-month lows of 2.5% and 2.4%, respectively, in September. In response to the yen's decline, Japan's chief currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, reiterated that the government is closely monitoring currency fluctuations and considers excessive volatility undesirable. Earlier this year, authorities intervened when the yen fell below 160 per dollar, and the 150 level is now seen as a critical threshold.

From a technical perspective, the first resistance level is at 150.00. If this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 151.00 and 151.30. On the downside, the initial support is at 148.65; if this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 148.00 and 147.20.

Post automatically merged: Oct 21, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.21.2024​

Gold Climbs Higher as Middle East Conflicts Escalade​

Gold climbed around $2,730 per ounce on Monday, setting new record highs due to rising demand for safe-haven assets. The focus is now on the escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly after Hezbollah announced a more intense phase in its conflict with Israel and reports emerged of Israeli strikes in Beirut’s southern suburbs and other regional locations over the weekend. The uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US presidential elections is also making safe-haven investments a strong investment choice. Furthermore, expectations of looser monetary policies from major central banks are supporting gold prices. The People's Bank of China recently cut key rates as part of its stimulus efforts, while the European Central Bank lowered rates for the third time this year. However, strong US economic data has raised expectations for a less dovish approach from the Federal Reserve.

Technically the first support level is at 2,685. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,640 and 2,605. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,750; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,770 and 2,800.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.22.2024​

Euro Falls on German Deflation, Yen Nears Intervention Trigger​

The Euro, Yen, and silver all experienced significant movements on Tuesday.

The Euro weakened against the US dollar due to German deflation and expectations of further monetary easing by the ECB. The Japanese Yen fell to a three-month low against the dollar, raising concerns about intervention by Japanese authorities. Silver prices surged to a 12-year high on the back of safe-haven demand and rising industrial demand.

Post automatically merged: Oct 23, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.22.2024​

EUR/USD Plummets on German Deflation​

The EUR/USD pair entered a bearish consolidation phase during the Asian session on Tuesday, fluctuating around the 1.0820 level, just above its lowest point since early August reached the previous day. The near-term sentiment appears firmly bearish, indicating that the path of least resistance for spot prices is likely downward. Data released on Monday revealed that producer prices in Germany, the Eurozone's largest economy, declined for the first time in seven months in September, with the annual rate of deflation accelerating. This development has increased expectations for further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB). Additionally, ECB policymaker Gediminas Simkus suggested that the ECB may need to lower its key interest rate further below the "natural" level if inflation continues to decline. This outlook could further weaken the euro, particularly in the context of a strong U.S. dollar, reinforcing the negative sentiment for the EUR/USD pair.

In the pair, the first support level is at 1.0810. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.0770 and 1.0740. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.0830; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.0875 and 1.0920.

Post automatically merged: Oct 23, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.22.2024​

GBP/USD Dips Below 1.3000 Ahead of BoE Speech​

The GBP/USD pair dipped on Monday, starting the trading week with a new test below the 1.3000 mark, as traders showed caution ahead of a busy week filled with central bank appearances and updates on global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures. Pound Sterling traders will be eyeing Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech on Tuesday. His comments will be delivered later in the day at the Bloomberg Global Regulatory Forum in New York during the early US market session. On Thursday, the global PMI figures will be released, beginning with the UK data. Market forecasts suggest a slight decrease in UK activity, with October’s Services PMI expected to drop to 52.2 from 52.4 in the previous month.

For GBP/USD, the initial support lies at 1.2965, followed by 1.2900 and 1.2830 below. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.3050, with subsequent levels at 1.3100 and 1.3160 if the pair breaks above this resistance.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.23.2024​

Global Uncertainty and Central Bank Actions Drive Markets​

The EUR/USD declines toward 16-week lows as ECB President Christine Lagarde's comments fail to halt the euro's slide.

The USD/JPY pair weakens to near 151.5 amid rising U.S. Treasury yields and concerns over Japan’s upcoming general election. Gold surges to $2,750 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand. GBP/USD remains near 1.3000 as the Bank of England signals a focus on financial sector surveillance while speculation of rate cuts grows. Silver rallies to $34.50, fueled by rising demand for clean energy and concerns over supply shortages.

Post automatically merged: Oct 23, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.23.2024​

Gold Surges to $2,750 Amid Global Uncertainty​

On Wednesday, gold surged towards $2,750 per ounce, reaching a new record high, fueled by its appeal as a safe-haven asset amid heightened geopolitical tensions and broader macroeconomic uncertainties. Investors continued to keep a close eye on diplomatic efforts in the Middle East, concerned about the potential for an escalated conflict as Israel intensifies its actions in Gaza and Lebanon. The upcoming US election also increased demand for safe-haven assets, with both presidential candidates locked in a tight race. Additionally, demand was further supported by monetary easing measures from major central banks, following recent cuts to key lending rates by the PBoC and ECB. At the same time, expectations for aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have softened in light of a series of positive economic indicators.

Technically, the first support level is at 2,730. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,685 and 2,660. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,795; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,820 and 2,850.

Post automatically merged: Oct 23, 2024

Silver Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.23.2024​

Silver Rallies as Clean Energy Demand Soars​

On Wednesday, silver remained above $34.50 per ounce, reaching its highest level in 12 years, driven by global uncertainties and signs of physical shortages. Market participants are concerned about the upcoming US election and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, alongside expectations of further monetary easing from major central banks. Additionally, the global shift toward cleaner energy has significantly strengthened demand for silver, particularly for its use in solar panels, raising concerns about potential supply shortages. Meanwhile, China, the world's largest consumer of metals, has introduced various stimulus measures to stimulate economic growth, including reducing key lending rates and injecting liquidity into capital markets.

From a technical perspective, the first resistance level to watch is at 34.90. If silver breaks above this level, the next resistance levels to watch will be 35.20 and 36.50, respectively. On the downside, the initial support level is at 34.00, with subsequent support levels at 33.50 and 33.00.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.24.2024​

Market Tensions Lift Gold, Silver as Currencies Stabilize​

The EUR/USD rebounded from a recent losing streak, supported by a dip in US Treasury yields, with key resistance levels ahead.
The Japanese yen weakened, impacted by political uncertainty and weaker economic data, while facing further downside pressure. Gold prices climbed, benefiting from its safe-haven appeal amid geopolitical tensions, and continue to show strength despite a stronger dollar. The GBP/USD remained close to its recent low, with traders focusing on economic reports that could influence its direction. Meanwhile, silver stabilized after testing its highest level since 2012, attracting buyers in the market.

Post automatically merged: Oct 25, 2024

Euro Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.24.2024​

Euro Finds Support as US Yields Retreat​

The EUR/USD pair gained during the Asian session on Thursday, rebounding from a three-day losing streak that hit a low of 1.0760, its lowest since early July. Spot prices have since risen near 1.0800, helped by a slight dip in the US dollar. A pullback in US Treasury yields from a three-month high led to some profit-taking on the dollar after its strong rally. However, the likelihood of modest Fed cuts and investor caution before the November 5 US presidential election may support the dollar, while dovish ECB expectations could cap gains for the EUR/USD.

The Eurozone's annual inflation rate dropped to 1.7% in September, falling below the ECB's 2% target for the first time since June 2021. This supports the central bank's view of a disinflationary trend and the potential for further policy easing. ECB official Mario Centeno highlighted growth and inflation risks, suggesting a possible 50 basis point rate cut in December. Similarly, Bostjan Vasle noted recent data may delay expected growth improvements. Market attention now shifts to upcoming flash PMI reports from the Eurozone and the US, which could provide insights into the global economy and influence market sentiment, along with US bond yields impacting the dollar.

The first support level for the pair is at 1.0760. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.0725 and 1.0660. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.0830; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.0875 and 1.0920.

Post automatically merged: Oct 25, 2024

Yen Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.24.2024​

Yen Dips as Japan's Ruling Party Faces Challenges​

The Japanese yen traded around 152.4 per dollar, down over 1% from the previous session, marking its lowest in nearly three months. This drop comes before Japan's general election, where the ruling coalition may lose its majority, raising uncertainty about future Bank of Japan rate hikes. Investors also reacted to data showing a contraction in private sector activity in October, the first in four months, with declines in manufacturing and services. Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kazuhiko Aoki noted the government is keeping an eye on currency fluctuations, as the yen has lost over half of its gains since the July intervention. Globally, the yen remains pressured by a strengthening dollar, driven by expectations of cautious Fed rate cuts and speculation about Trump's potential November victory.

From a technical perspective, the first resistance level is at 153.20, with further targets at 154.40 and 155.20 if surpassed. On the downside, initial support is at 151.30; if breached, the next support levels are 150.20 and 148.60.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.25.2024​

Markets Shift Focus to Fed and Geopolitical Risks Amid Dollar Strength​

The EUR/USD holds above 1.0800 as it faces downside risk from expectations of smaller Fed rate cuts and subdued Eurozone growth.

USD/JPY stabilizes near 152 ahead of Japan’s general election, with the yen under pressure due to dollar strength and Japan's weak inflation data. Gold dips below $2,730 as a strong dollar offsets safe-haven demand, while the GBP/USD recovers to 1.2960 on potential borrowing plans by the UK Finance Minister. Silver trades near $33.50, pressured by dollar gains but supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand.

Post automatically merged: Oct 25, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.25.2024​

Gold Eases as Strong Dollar Offsets Safe-Haven Demand​

Gold dipped below $2,730 per ounce on Friday after a rise in the previous session, as the ongoing strength of the US dollar and Treasury yields overshadowed the metal's safe-haven appeal. This change followed robust US economic data that intensified expectations that the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting approach will be less aggressive than anticipated. Recent figures revealed a significant drop in US unemployment claims in late October, indicating a resilient labor market, while an increase in the S&P PMI suggested strong momentum in the private sector. Despite this, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and worries about a wider conflict, along with uncertainties surrounding the US election and easing from major central banks, continued to provide some support for gold. Overall, gold is on track to post slight gains for the week.

Technically the first support level is at 2,725. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,714 and 2,685. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,735; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,757 and 2,800.

Post automatically merged: Oct 25, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.25.2024​

GBP Recovers to 1.2960 on Reeves' Borrowing Plans​

The British Pound is trading at 1.2960 on Friday morning, recovering from a two-month low following reports that Finance Minister Rachel Reeves may permit increased borrowing in the upcoming budget, potentially delaying rate cuts by the Bank of England. Reeves aims to revise fiscal rules to focus on public sector net financial liabilities (PSNFL), which could free up tens of billions for capital expenditure. The Institute for Fiscal Studies suggested this change could have allowed for an additional £53 billion in borrowing last March, although the Treasury has indicated it won't utilize this capacity right away. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey expressed concerns about ongoing inflation, noting that while inflation is lower than anticipated, structural economic changes and high inflation in services are still pressing issues. Consequently, market expectations for a rate cut by the BoE in November have fallen from 100% to 86%. Additionally, flash PMI data indicated slower growth in the UK manufacturing and services sectors for October.

For GBP/USD, the initial support lies at 1.2920, followed by 1.2865 and 1.2805 below. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.2985, with subsequent levels at 1.3050 and 1.3100 if the pair breaks above this resistance.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.28.2024​

Yen Falls on Election Risks, Dollar Gains Ground​

The USD strengthened on positive US data, keeping EUR/USD steady at 1.0790.

The yen weakened below 153.5 after Japan’s ruling coalition lost its majority, raising potential BoJ intervention. Gold consolidated near $2,730 amid global uncertainties, and silver traded at $33.60, pressured by a strong dollar. GBP/USD hovered at 1.2960 as UK inflation fell below target, increasing BoE rate cut expectations. Markets await China’s National People’s Congress and key US economic data to calculate upcoming global market impacts.

Post automatically merged: Oct 28, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.28.2024​

Dollar Strengthens on Positive US Data​

The EUR/USD pair remained stable at around 1.0790 in Monday's Asian session, following losses. It may encounter pressure from a stronger US dollar, supported by positive US economic data hinting at a cautious Fed stance in November. The US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 70.5 in October, beating the 69.0 forecast, while Durable Goods Orders fell 0.8% in September, less than the expected 1.0% drop. Israel's recent airstrikes on Iran, coordinated with Washington and targeting missile and air defense sites, were more restrained than expected.

The US dollar’s strength is supported by uncertainties around the upcoming presidential election, where Trump’s Republican allies have lost at least 10 court cases in key states, potentially affecting the November 5 outcome.

ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot stressed the importance of keeping "all options open" to manage growth and inflation risks, maintaining flexibility as a safeguard against economic suspense. He highlighted the ECB’s effective, data-focused, meeting-by-meeting approach, per Reuters.

Technically, the EUR/USD pair is testing support around the 1.0790 midpoint of its weekly horizontal range. If this level fails, the price may target the daily trendline at 1.0760, where it found support last Wednesday. A break below this trendline could push the pair toward 1.0700.

On the upside, the first resistance stands at the double top of 1.0840 on the 4-hour chart. Above this, the 200-day and 50-week moving averages create a second resistance zone at 1.0870-1.0880. A breakout here would make 1.0900 the third resistance level.

Post automatically merged: Oct 28, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.28.2024​

Gold Consolidates Near $2,730​

Gold fell below $2,730 per ounce on Monday as safe-haven demand eased after restrained Israeli airstrikes on Iran with no immediate retaliation. Markets are focused on US economic data, such as PCE inflation and Q3 GDP, which may impact Fed rate expectations. Despite stronger economic data lowering rate cut expectations, uncertainties around the US election and easing by other central banks continue to support gold prices.

Since its recent peak last Wednesday, gold has traded within a horizontal range. After a gap down at the open, it quickly recovered. If the upward move persists, Friday’s high at 2747 marks the first resistance, followed by the previous peak at 2758, and then 2770 as the third resistance level.

On the downside, the midpoint of the range at 2735 is initial support. Below this, key support levels include the rising trendline at 2723 and the lower boundary of the range at 2715.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.29.2024​

Dollar Steady Amid Uncertainty; Yen Pressured by Instability​

The EUR/USD holds at 1.0810 as a cautious Fed outlook and upcoming US election boost the dollar’s safe-haven appeal.

The yen trades near 153, weakened by Japan’s political shifts and potential BoJ policy delays. Gold reaches $2,750 per ounce on strong safe-haven demand, driven by Fed policy expectations and US data releases. The GBP/USD slides amid diverging Fed and BoE paths, while silver eyes $34.00, supported by Middle East tensions and the upcoming US election.

Post automatically merged: Oct 30, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.29.2024​

Pound Weakens as Fed, BoE Rate Paths Diverge​

The GBP/USD pair faces renewed selling pressure in Tuesday's Asian session, drifting toward the mid-1.2900s but still above last week's lows. The US dollar’s strength, supported by expectations of a cautious Fed approach to policy easing, has halted its recent decline, weighing on the GBP/USD pair. Speculation around potential BoE rate cuts in November and December further supports a bearish outlook.

Technically, initial support is at the daily trendline at 1.2930. A break could shift focus to 1.2865, followed by the 200-day moving average at 1.2800. Resistance levels to watch are at 1.2990, 1.3015, and the 20-day moving average at 1.3040.

Post automatically merged: Oct 30, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.29.2024​

EUR/USD Holds as Dollar Gains on Fed, Election Uncertainty​

The EUR/USD pair remains steady around 1.0810 early Tuesday, with the US dollar consolidating as investors await Germany's GfK Consumer Confidence data. Anticipation of a slower pace of Fed rate cuts is likely to support the dollar near-term, with key US economic releases ahead, including Q3 GDP, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and employment data.

The US election on November 5 adds uncertainty, as FiveThirtyEight polls show Trump with a 52% chance of winning versus 48% for Harris, potentially bolstering the dollar as a safe-haven. In the ECB, Belgian bank chief Wunsch sees no rush to cut rates further, while Portugal’s Centeno suggests a 50-basis-point cut may be on the table for December

Resistance levels to watch are 1.0840, then 1.0865–1.0880 (where the 200-day and 50-week SMAs converge), and 1.0930. On the downside, support stands at 1.0770, followed by 1.0750 and then 1.0700 if pressure continues.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.30.2024​

Markets Mixed Ahead of Key US Data, ECB Decision, and Election Uncertainty​

Global markets traded cautiously on Wednesday with the EUR/USD near 1.0810 as ECB rate cut expectations pressured the euro. USD/JPY hovered around 153.4 as Japan’s election added political uncertainty ahead of the BOJ's policy announcement.

Gold surged close to $2,780 amid rising Middle East tensions and US election concerns, while GBP/USD held near 1.3010 awaiting the UK's Autumn Budget. Silver stayed above $34.00, driven by safe-haven demand. Investors focus on US Q3 GDP and ADP data for clues on Fed policy.

Post automatically merged: Oct 30, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.30.2024​

EUR/USD Pressured Ahead of ECB Rate Decision​

The EUR/USD pair has lost momentum after two days of gains, trading around 1.0810 in the Asian session on Wednesday. The Euro is pressured as the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to lower its Deposit Facility Rate again, with a nearly 50% chance of a 50-basis-point cut at the December meeting.

Investors are focused on preliminary GDP figures from Germany and the Eurozone, along with Germany’s initial Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data due Wednesday. Attention also turns to US Q3 GDP data and October's ADP Employment Change report.

ECB officials have voiced mixed views on policy. Belgium’s Pierre Wunsch suggested no need for aggressive cuts, while Portugal’s Mario Centeno supported a 50-basis-point cut in December.

The recent EUR/USD dip is linked to a stronger US Dollar, driven by rising Treasury yields. The Dollar Index (DXY) is around 104.30, with 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields at 4.09% and 4.24%

Uncertainty around the US presidential election may add pressure on the pair, as a new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows a close race, with Kamala Harris narrowly leading Donald Trump, 44% to 43%.

After pulling back to the daily trendline, 1.0770 serves as key support for EUR/USD, followed by 1.0750 and 1.0700. Resistance levels to watch are 1.0840, 1.0880, and 1.0930.

Post automatically merged: Oct 30, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.30.2024​

Gold Rises to $2,780 on Safe-Haven Demand​

Gold surged to nearly $2,780 per ounce on Wednesday, setting a new record as investors weighed recent labor data and geopolitical risks ahead of the US elections. The JOLTS report showed US job openings at their lowest since 2021, contrasting with September’s data on economic resilience, which has moderated expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts. Markets still anticipate a 25 basis point cut in each remaining Fed meeting this year, as lower rates boost the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Focus now turns to upcoming PCE inflation, Q3 GDP, and payroll figures for further Fed insights. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, alongside the US election, are also driving safe-haven demand.

For technical levels, gold’s next resistance stands at the psychological $2,800, with $2,820 and $2,850 as subsequent targets. In case of a pullback, the first support is at $2,770, with $2,758 and $2,735 acting as further support levels.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.31.2024​

USD Gains on Treasury Yields, Precious Metals Rally​

The USD dollar strengthened against the euro and pound as resilient US economic data and rising Treasury yields dampened expectations of aggressive Fed easing.

The EUR/USD fell below the mid-1.0800s, facing resistance around 1.0880, while GBP/USD declined near 1.2950 with budget concerns and cautious sentiment ahead of the US elections. Meanwhile, precious metals like gold and silver held steady at high levels, supported by the upcoming US election. Gold stayed near $2,780, with resistance at $2,790, and silver hovered around $33.60, with key levels awaiting potential stimulus announcements from China.

Post automatically merged: Nov 1, 2024

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.31.2024​

USD Gains Ground on Yield Rise​

The EUR/USD pair faced selling pressure during the Asian session on Thursday, retreating from the previous day's gains near 1.0870, a one-and-a-half-week high. This pullback came as renewed demand for the USD drove spot prices below the mid-1.0800s.

Recent US economic data indicates a resilient economy, which dampens expectations of aggressive Fed easing. For instance, ADP reported that private employers added 233,000 jobs in October, likely boosting consumer spending. Additionally, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis estimated a 2.8% annualized growth for April-June, down slightly from the prior quarter's 3% but having minimal effect on the Fed rate-cut outlook. Rising concerns over the US fiscal deficit have also increased Treasury yields, supporting the USD and pressuring EUR/USD.

Eurozone data on Wednesday showed continued inflationary pressure in Germany, where the economy grew unexpectedly by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3. This has led investors to temper expectations of significant ECB rate cuts, offering some support for the euro and EUR/USD ahead of Thursday's Eurozone inflation data.

The EUR/USD pair has support from a daily trendline and faces resistance in the 1.0870-1.0880 range, where it previously encountered resistance near the 200 SMA. If this level is broken, the next resistances are at 1.0910 and 1.0940, the latter aligning with the 0.38 Fibonacci retracement of the last correction wave starting September 25. On the downside, the initial support level is 1.0850 (20-day moving average), with further support at 1.0825. If this level fails, 1.0770 could act as additional support.

Post automatically merged: Nov 1, 2024

USD/JPY Analysis By zForex Research Team - 10.31.2024​

USD/JPY Breaks Triangle Pattern, Eyes 152.40 Support​

The Japanese yen remained around 153.2, close to a three-month low, following the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain its policy rate at 0.25%, as expected. The central bank also reiterated its projection that inflation will stay near the 2% target in the coming years, demonstrating its commitment to ongoing policy normalization. Traders are now eager to hear insights from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s post-meeting briefing for clues on the potential pace and timing of future rate hikes.

Over the past month, the yen has experienced nearly a 7% decline against the dollar, marking its largest monthly loss since November 2016. This depreciation has been primarily driven by strong gains in the dollar and rising Treasury yields. Additionally, a political shake-up in Japan has increased uncertainty regarding the country’s fiscal and monetary policy outlook, further contributing to the yen's decline.

The triangle pattern we discussed yesterday has been broken to the downside. As a result, the first support level for USD/JPY is at 152.40, corresponding to a weekly gap closure. If the price cannot hold above this level, subsequent support levels to monitor are 151.40, aligning with the 200-day moving average, and 150.60.

On the upside, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the movement that began in July, located at 153.30, will serve as the initial resistance level. If this level is surpassed, the next resistance levels to watch are 154.50 and 156.60.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.01.2024​

Markets Eye US NFP Report as Dollar Strength Pressures Majors​

The EUR/USD reached 1.0885 on Friday as the dollar softened. Attention is on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, with stronger data potentially lifting the dollar. In Japan, the yen strengthened near 152.2 following hints at a rate hike from BOJ’s Governor Ueda. Gold held at $2,750, balanced between Fed signals and geopolitical tensions.

Meanwhile, the GBP/USD dipped to 1.2895 amid UK tax hike plans, while silver traded near $30.75, impacted by dollar strength. Key US economic data today will guide expectations for future Fed moves, shaping sentiment across currencies and commodities.

Post automatically merged: Nov 1, 2024

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.01.2024​

Gold Stabilizes, Balancing Fed Tone and Safe-Haven Demand​

Gold stabilized around $2,750 per ounce on Friday after a more than 1% decline in the previous session, as markets weighed the demand for safety against pressure from a less dovish Federal Reserve. Recent US economic data showed strong personal income and spending figures, a rise in underlying inflation above target levels, and an unexpected decline in jobless claims. This supported the view that the US economy can withstand higher borrowing costs, giving the Fed more leeway to avoid aggressive rate cuts.

However, political uncertainty in the US continued to support gold prices, as the possibility of another Trump presidency raised expectations for expansionary fiscal policies and higher tariffs. This prompted investors to seek gold as a hedge against long-term inflation risks. Additionally, ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine further increased gold's attractiveness as a safe-haven asset.

On the downside, the first support level for gold is at $2,735, followed by $2,714 and $2,685. On the upside, $2,758 serves as a key resistance level, with $2,770 and $2,790 as the next levels to monitor if this resistance is surpassed.

Post automatically merged: Nov 1, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 11.01.2024​

GBP/USD Softens to 1.2895 Amid UK Tax Hike Plans​

The GBP/USD pair trades defensively around 1.2895 in early Asian hours on Friday, marking a low since August 16. The pair has softened following the UK Labour government’s Autumn Forecast Statement, which announced £40 billion in tax hikes to address public finance gaps and support public services.

In the U.S., the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for September slightly exceeded expectations, with headline PCE rising 2.1% year-on-year, while core PCE rose 2.7%, above the forecasted 2.6%. Markets expect the Fed to implement 25 basis point rate cuts in both November and December.

Investors await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, expected to add 113,000 jobs, with the Unemployment Rate anticipated to hold at 4.1%.

In the UK, the Office for Business Responsibility revised its 2024 inflation forecast to 2.5% from 2.2%, leading markets to expect fewer BoE rate cuts, which may support the Pound.

For GBP/USD, key support levels are 1.2865, 1.2810, and 1.2750, while resistance levels stand at 1.2910, 1.2945, and 1.2980.