Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart (Fundamentals)

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 13, 2017


The GBP/USD remained in the pressured area yesterday prior the late recovery that the helped the pair to moved higher and closer the 1.29 level. It further ended the day in an acceptable manner. As mentioned previously, the pound is one of the weakest currencies in the market due to events that continue to impact the GBP. however, there are some signs of recovery and remain to search for ways to have a complete recovery.


The dovish remarks of BOE member, Ben Broadbent pushed the Cable under pressure during the earlier session along with some strong selling in the pair of pound-yen that helped the GBPUSD to reach the 1.28 mark, whereas, the pair started another rally during the afternoon trading.

The Bank of England was able to provide support for the British currency but the market was surprised when Broadbent did not stated hawkish comments as expected. It will be disregarded when the data of average earnings index is released and predicted to helped the GBP to increase, then recovery will continue.


The testimony of Yellen was the major event for this day but there’s nothing hawkish came out based on what she was mentioned previously, hence, this led to further selling of the USD throughout the markets.


It further assisted the pound-dollar to recover and touched the 1.29 mark. It also indicates clear hints about pair recovery and traders should take note of this.


Ultimately, there are no major events or releases from the United Kingdom, aside from the PPI data and Yellen’s speech later this day. Both events mentioned would likely carry some volatility, however, the 1.28 area shows a strong buying support. It can be an interesting trading day today.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 14, 2017


As mentioned in the previous forecast, the 1.28 region is suitable for the pair to rebound and the GBP/USD was able to begin its recovery prior it moved higher than the said level. The recovery resumes since the Cable was under the consolidation period showing a bullish sentiment.


The area within 1.29 contains lots of volatility, even the pair trades around a narrow range and unable to reach either side of the range. However, it was obvious that bulls remain in control at this moment and the level 1.28 would be the indicator, in case that bears urge to take the driver’s seat. There is no fundamental news released the previous day from the United Kingdom and it was one of the reasons why consolidation had formed.


The dollar bulls hope to get some support from the hawkish speech of Yellen but the bulls were disappointed as she did not cite any hints about economic strength or the timetable of the next interest hike.


This pushed the greenbacks towards the back seat and further helped the pair to remain to trade in a stable approach which is close to the peaks of the range. The PPI data was mainly on expected lines and did not mess up the markets.


Ultimately, there are no major releases from the United Kingdom except for the significant CPI and retail sales from the United States which is projected to cause a lot of volatility in the near-term. A strong data is possible to move the greenbacks higher and bring into view the 1.28 mark for the GBPUSD.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 17, 2017


The Euro against the U.S. dollar puts its high levels at risk following poor data results on Friday that boosted the pair. The dollar has been negatively positioned in the past few weeks to take advantage of any kind of recovery. The NFP results put a high data keeping hopes up that this would result in a reversal because of the U.S. economic data and anticipated to recover the dollar but it did not happen.


In the previous week, the dollar has kept a sustained decline but the market is focused on Yellen and late data released on Friday. Yellen’s speech was not as expected and she was not concerned with her less hawkish speech which will further place the dollar in a difficult situation. Hence, the dollar bulls will have to rely on the Friday data to appeal for traders to buy since Yellen could not support the dollar. Furthermore, both the retail sales data and the CPI data has failed expectation which has worsened the situation.


The retail sales came in with weakened growth while the CPI data came in at 0.1% compared to the anticipated value of 0.2% that pulled the dollar growth down and pushed the EUR/USD pair up. A steeper correction level is hoped for but the lackluster growth of the U.S. economic data raises concern and the next rate hike would depend on the next reports. Yet, the next rate increase will most likely not happen in the short-term.


For today, there is no major news from the Eurozone as well as in the U.S. which in effect, will continue the market sentiment on Friday. Nevertheless, traders should get ready for the week ahead.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 19, 2017


The British currency against the U.S. dollar had a correction during Tuesday session. The pair dropped towards 1.3030 level bringing the trend in a weaker position on Friday after the inflation data came out with negative data.


The pair is now on a crucial condition which will presumably persist in the upcoming trading sessions. The pair could break above the region to move forward in short-term. In the past few weeks, it is notable that the economic data from the UK did not meet expectations. This opposes the trend by the start of the year when the U.K. data has been impressive and exceeded expectations amid of political and economic problems brought by the Brexit negotiation.


The BoE has been anxious regarding the monetary policies including rate hikes in the future and the economic data has a vital role in the decision-making process. Hence, negativity in the data would make them be irresolute.


The GBP/USD pair was able to brush aside issues on weak data and Brexit concerns in the past few weeks due to the low dollar in the market. Moreover, BoE reinforces this and adds more pressure. However, if the dollar steadies, the attention will go back to the BoE and the economic data unless both works side by side. On the other hand, this would be more complicated for the pound bulls.


For today, there are no major new from Britain or from the United States. Choppiness is anticipated to carry on close to the 1.3050 region since the trend is now in consolidation and ranges.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 24, 2017


The market had a difficulty trading the British pound against the U.S. dollar pair for the past week. After the release of the weaker CPI and retail sales data from the U.S. last week, the pair surged to 1.3030 region and reach beyond the 1.31 region for a short period of time for that day. The traders anticipate the trend last week to be continued since the greenback is not performing well as of now.


The weakened dollar did not help the pound that frustrated traders. The pair underwent correction lower than 1.30 level during the early days of the week which was influenced by the minor recovery of the dollar which was also exhibited by the euro. It resulted to poor performance in the lower channel. Moreover, the less-than-expected economic data from the U.K. deviated the strong trend of data in the past few months. Although, it is anticipated that the market could recover when the dollar depreciated once again but it failed.


The dollar weakened as the end of the week approaches with the outcome of investigations regarding the business transaction of Trump concern rises. Although, most of other currencies take advantage of this situation to move higher. As for the GBP/USD pair, it stays relatively calm. Despite the strong data of retail sales report from the U.K., it was not sufficient to push the pair higher as it closed the week lower than 1.30 level. It seems that there are risks to incur losses in the coming week influenced by the uncertainty from Brexit which continues to affect the British currency.


For today, there are not many economic events for the week as the end of the month approaches and data subsided. For next week, the FOMC statement from the U.S. is anticipated to be announced. Hence, the GBP/USD pair is anticipated to proceed with a weaker trading condition close to the 1.3030 regions as a significant psychological level.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 24, 2017


Draghi sounded dovish during the latest press conference and he was aware of the rally of the euro since the economic data favor the currency. Although the Draghi is trying to bring the price down as expressed in his speech, the market has reacted oppositely and bought the currency even more and push the price of the EUR/USD pair towards 1.15 level. Soon after, the news regarding the business transaction of Trump investigation, a selloff in the dollar occurred that influenced the price to move towards 1.16 region. The week closed above the said region.


In the upcoming week, we are heading towards the end of the month where the economic news and events dry up and hence we do not have much news in the coming week apart from the FOMC statement. But considering how bullish the EURUSD pair has been, we believe that the next target for the pair would be the 1.18 region.


As the last day of the week and the end of the month approaches, the pair will mostly persist in a neutral stance for today. There are less economic events except for the FOMC statement recently. The next target of the pair would be at 1.18 region for short term. Once this has been achieved, a correction could follow suit as it has been beyond its highs for the year and the highest since 2015. The number of short positions for the dollar will most likely increase that poses a lot of risks and uncertainty especially for dollar bears who would immediately exit the market once it goes up.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 25, 2017


The British pound against the U.S. dollar has been in consolidation for the past 24 hours and it seems that the support is sufficient enough. This somehow gives a hint that the pair is ready to move up since there is a strong support in the 1.30 region. As the month end approaching, it is anticipated for the money flow to be different come to the end of the month and there will be choppiness in trades to keep the traders to be interested in the market.


The pair pushes to reach the 1.30 region and was able to sustain higher than the region majority of the day. For the first day of the week, both the volatility and liquidity was low since there is low trading activity. The pair attempted to reach the 1.3050 level for the day but was countered by strong selling that pushes it back with strong support towards the 1.30. It won’t be long when the next bullish trend happens to move towards 1.31.


Risks and uncertainties are still present in trading the pound amid the Brexit negotiation process and the market as a whole. This is why the GBP/USD pair has still not moved out of its restrictions. Although, the Bank of England supports the British currency through its statements and minutes of the meeting that increases the chances for a rate hike in the succeeding months. Yet just last week, the usual strong economic data from the U.K. has had a choppy trading mixed of good and bad results of the data. This has put pressure on the pound and had a big impact.

For today, there is no major news from the U.K. Even so, month end flows are expected to happen throughout the day that keeps the GBP/USD afloat.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: July 31, 2017


The USD/CAD was able to obtain the highly-needed bounce on Thursday, which was previously mentioned since the week started. It is followed by the decline of the pair in the past few weeks because of the strong level in which the pair sits together with the possibility that this region is the buyer’s final stand.


As the strength of the dollar recovered, it helped the pair to soar high and affirmed lot of things in the following days. However, there is already a warning that the downward will be very intact and needed much time to return.


It is also mentioned that bears will use any bounce from the commodity-linked pair as an opportunity to sell prices highers. Any hints of recovery seen on Friday had plunged conclusively while the USDCAD appeared to be weak as usual.


The sluggish stance was triggered by the GDP figures of Canada and the United States. But the US data showed a marginally better than expected, while the Thursday’s data from the US prompted the market to have higher expectations from the gross domestic product. On one side, the Canadian GDP came in very strong and able to have another rate increase soon.


This led to a reversal of the whole trend since yesterday and the pair lies in below the 1.24 level which might become weaker.


Ultimately, there are no any major economic releases either from US or Canada. Therefore, consolidation is safely expected together with ranging of the dollar which is at disadvantage because of the developments over the White House during weekends.


Furthermore, it is predicted the USDCAD to remain in pressured area as the markets look forward to a plenty of data expected in the latter part of the week.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 3, 2017


The main focus for today will be on the sterling pound as there are an expected economic releases and other data from the United Kingdom for this day. We await for the UK inflation hearings along with the rate announcement of the Bank of England to be issued. Also, BOE Governor Mark Carney will conduct his speech, therefore these events would likely cause high volatility for the GBP/USD.


The central bank of England was hawkish during their last meeting which led few markets to think that rate hike is possible sooner or later. There are three BOE members who agreed for a rate increase which triggered confidence for some markets, however, this only accounts a small portion of the market because the majority still believes that the bank will maintain its benchmark.


This is considered a logical approach regarding the continuous financial circles of Britain which could be a turmoil caused by the Brexit procedures. Moreover, a lot of things remain unclear, particularly the results of the referendum process in determining if it will a soft or hard Brexit. Due to many uncertainties, it is absurd for the BOE to make an increase and most likely, they want to see first the effect of the Brexit negotiations prior making such decisions.


The pound-dollar resume to consolidate yesterday and the range near the highs of its range are expected for this very important day. In case that the BOE decided to kept rates steady, the Cable is anticipated for further correction. The 1.3250 level serves as the ceiling at this moment.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 9, 2017


The markets may appear to be in a deep coma and traders seems to relax for awhile, however, there is something turned up that triggered their presence. The markets woke up from the slumber because of the recent data but did not cause a lot of movements. On Tuesday, the condition was different and this move built up in the past couple of days.


The recently released data is the JOLT employment figures which exceed its expectations and further boost the US dollar unexpectedly. This manages the pair to fall near 100 pips as it drops from the 1.18 level above towards the support region at 1.1720.


It was previously mentioned in the past few days that the 1.1720 support will indicate the time when it will be broken, as we expect for a deeper correction. Hence, this area was able to maintain the price but it seems to be under pressure in the near-term.


The global risk heightened due to threatening attacks by the North Korea while the United States warns the N.Korea about their possible counterattacks. With this, the gold and Japanese yen strengthened while the prices of other trading instruments were affected.


The euro-dollar pair rebounded from the 1.1720 mark to return and reach the highs at 1.1780. But this morning, the pair was seen to move in the lows due to an increase of risks worldwide.

Currently, the EURUSD experience lots of pressure due to investors and traders. The European leaders possibly felt that pinch of a stronger euro.


Ultimately, there is no major economic news from the eurozone or the US but volatility is predicted since yesterday which would likely dominate the markets this day, keeping the pair in the pressured area.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 18, 2017


The GBP/USD remained trading in a sluggish manner and another attempt to cut through the range lows was seen near the 1.2860 level. However, the Cable was able to survive again but due to a lot of rising attacks, the pair may not hold on too long before it breaks down and the sterling weaken.


The trading session on Thursday seems very choppy among various major pairs, as the greenbacks drove towards that course and also because of the release of Fed’s meeting minutes. The minutes came in slightly dovish which weakened the US dollar and triggered a round of dollar selling following the release. But on Thursday morning until the first half of the day, the USD managed to recover its strength which supported the reversal in the whole trend. This happened after issuing the minutes and the GBPUSD returned to its lows, poised to make a breakthrough.


Moreover, there are some talks about the resignation of Trump’s staffs and despite these false rumors, the dollar was pushed in the backseat. While the surge in global risk sentiment associated with the terrorist attack in Spain, further dragged the dollar towards the pressured area. With this, the pound-dollar pair recovered a little bit, but the Cable still trades around the lows of the range. Amid strong data from British retail sales, the pound bulls remain hopeless as the sluggish trading will keep on going.


Ultimately, there are no any major economic releases from the United States or Britain until the end of the day. Hence, consolidation is further expected but the weakening of the dollar was felt across the board. The GBPUSD is projected to be buoyant during the consolidative period in the near term.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 6, 2017


The British pound soared to 1.30 and labeled as the strongest currency for the day during Tuesday session. Currently, it moves to the highs of the range in the 1.3030 region and put a risk for a breakout. It seems to be not performing well in the past whole week but this was supported by the expected data from the U.K. and the weakened dollar which has assisted the recovery of the GBP/USD pair.


The center of attention has been the U.S. dollar majority of the day since the U.S. market opened after the long weekend as well as rhetorics from various speakers of the Federal Reserve. The market anticipates what will happen to the U.S. economy and when will be the next rate hike. It seems that they do not really think about it. It is mainly dovish on both issues but this did not appeal to investors which resulted in another round of selling the greenback.


In turn, this has supported the GBP/USD pair to ascend towards 1.3000 level and the 1.3030 is now an important resistance region. If it successfully breaks through the said region in a clean manner, the pair is anticipated to move towards 1.3250 region for short term. Yet, there is a possibility for this to happen when the dollar further weakened.


There is no major economic news from the U.K. for this day. The dollar will once again be the center of attention and if the market can recover for short-term. It seems that the dollar index is at a crucial stage where it could decline or bounce up from this point. It is ideal for traders to be careful and determine its next move whether it will go down or up prior to placing orders.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 22, 2017


The EUR/USD had a mixed performance during the daytime trading on Thursday, showing some choppiness without any hints on how to handle the dollar recovery. It happened after the FOMC meeting in which the Federal Reserve did not exclude chances for a rate increase in December and decided to begin the program to cut balance sheets. These combined announcements enabled to maintain the bid under the greenbacks, however, the trend of the EURUSD pair remained choppy to a certain extent.


Moreover, the single European currency weakened and moved below the 1.19 mark during the morning session, afterward, it started to recover and moved upwards since the US dollar weakened again over other selected currencies. With this, the euro was able to drive higher than the 1.19 level and currently trading in the 1.2950 area which continues to gain strength. It appeared that the pair would retrace its losses in the near term while the dollar bulls still having a tough time to generate strength recovery.


The USD failed to become well-composed in the past couple of days, as it loses its bullish gains. While the EUR successfully recovered due to the discussion about the continuous QE tapering in the market which is very visible to everyone.


In the near term, the euro is expected to remain in the bid as the pair test the range highs at 1.2070. The time for the dollar has not happened yet, therefore, bulls should be willing to wait for strong signals sent by the Fed regarding the rate hike, together with the ECB’s tapering talk and from that, we could expect for a reversal of fortune.


Ultimately, there are no major economic releases for today except the speech of ECB President Mario Draghi which is anticipated during London hours. According to forecasts, Draghi will tackle about the monetary policy while the market is still searching for some insights about tapering, however, the ECB president is known for his inclination not to touch the monetary policy during this kind of meetings. Furthermore, it remains unclear if this will brought an impact towards the euro-dollar pair.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 27, 2017


The British pound has been competing with the surge of the dollar and a basket of currencies is already behind of the currency. The performance of the British currency has been better than other currencies as reflected in the past few weeks as it was supported by the Bank of England and the U.K. government which keeps it from collapsing.


The central bank supports the currency which allows the probability of a rate hike for the year. It seems that the bank would not disturb the economy with the ongoing process of Brexit that flows at a faster pace than in their last meeting. Although, they noted that they would interfere when necessary. It has improved the confidence of the U.K. economy which also pushes the currency at a slower but steady in the past few weeks.


The U.K. government aptly proceeds with the Brexit process through their parliament which helped the situation and supported the pound to rise stronger over time. Although the U.K. Prime Minister May lengthened the timeline for Brexit in the new few years. In the meantime, her approach implies that the both the nation and the investors trust the economy.


Today, there is no major economic news from the U.K. anticipated but the durable goods data will be released from the U.S. The greenback is presumed to hold the current rates because of the expected announcement in the afternoon from Trump to implement a new tax system. Consequently, the GBP/USD pair will be put under pressure.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 2, 2017


The GBP/USD pair showed some choppiness in the past couple of days without any definite direction. The British pound was able to recover in the previous weeks, considering the fact that it is one of the strongest currency in the market. However, the Sterling was also affected by the dollar buying, forcing the Cable pair for a correction over the 1.35 level to trade beneath the 1.34 region in the past few days. Previously, the pound-dollar pair failed to broke the 1.3420 area after certain attempts which the pair did during the USD weakening.


In case that this pattern keep on going, it would likely cause further weakness in the GBP and could push the pair downwards. Moreover, we are waiting for a bundle of data from the United States later this week, which could possibly manage the greenback well bid in the near-term. These events when combined would likely place the sterling in the pressured area in the short-term.


On one side, the sterling pound was supported by the Bank of England (BOE), as the bank did not lose the possibility for a rate hike despite the ongoing Brexit process. Primarily, the market expected that the BoE will remain quiet during this kind of precarious scenario but the most recent meeting of the UK central bank clearly announced that they will only take action if necessary. This has provided support to the GBP, considering that British government showed optimistic views regarding the retention of the free market access to the European Union.


Ultimately, the manufacturing PMI data from the United Kingdom and the United States which could probably enough volatility. While it is essential for the bulls to break 1.3420 mark in the near-term for the completion of an upward trend.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 13, 2017


There is a consolidation in during the trading session of the EUR/USD pair as it fluctuates up and down for the day without specific trajectory. The Resistance area is found close to the 1.18880 and it cannot be determined yet the market will be able to break this area or its direction for short-term.


The price moved headed to the level mentioned and it seems that there will be a lot of selling to take place which would result in a minor correction. Although, there is choppiness present in the pair and it might be best to stay on the sidelines. The data from the U.S. particularly the PPI has no big impact on the movement of the pair and move sluggishly but steadfastly.


The dollar is moving behind with the NFP data came in weaker anticipated in the previous week. The FOMC minutes also gave a hawkish sentiment as awaited by the market. The trend is hinting for an uptrend of the EUR/USD pair to persist both for short and medium term while the question remains if the Federal Reserve will raise the rate for December and continue to affect the market.


Today, the market may get answers as the CPI data from the U.S. will be released later this day which put the Fed member at a worrisome state while dollar bulls are hoping for a positive output for today and keep open the possibility of a rate hike in December. Other than the CPI data, the retail sales data is also scheduled to be released for today which would greatly influence the short-term activity of the pair.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 19, 2017


The pound-dollar pair continued to move upwards after the weakening of the dollar across the board in the past 24 hours. We believe that there are no fundamentals that drive the market which caused the U.S. dollar to weaken, hence, it all boils down to the condition during the second half of the month accompanied by disappointing news from all over the world. Generally, the main focus is turned to the positioning and flows rather than the fundamental news.


Moreover, there are reports that calling UK Prime Minister Theresa May to stop the Brexit negotiations without any settled trade agreements. This is the ongoing agreement about Brexit since last week. So far, there have been barely some progress with the process, showing some strength and getting nearer to the end of the talks while PM Theresa May is planning to fly to Brussels in order to resume the discourse and bring out a resolution. The appeal for a no deal and demanding May to leave the talks are much preferred compared to anything else for this current time.


The United Kingdom could decide to work out some good deal which should offer justice both on the European Union and the Britain since there is some block as of this moment. Eventually, the talks could possibly continue to gain traction which is a positive factor the sterling pound.


Ultimately, the British retail sales figures and American unemployment claims data are expected to be published within this day. The retail sales are projected to contribute volatility to the Cable pair, considering the upcoming statistics from the UK were sluggish in the past couple of weeks that prompted the market to be very cautious since this data is capable of identifying the trend of the British currency throughout the entire week.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 26, 2017


The EUR/USD climb higher due to various reasons including the result of the meeting of the ECB, the scheduled statement and the press conference later this day. The dollar also weakened across the market which pushed euro to move higher. Moreover, today is a significant day for the week.


The statement and announcement from the ECB are anticipated after the press conference of Draghi. As the market expects the release of the statement, the ECB would give their hints and plans related to QE tapering during the press conference. If they were able to give a definite plan and timeline, it would be a big help for the euro which is already presumed to rally after. The data from the eurozone gives out positive data and for this reason. Hence, the ECB does not have a reason to postpone the tapering but the pace of the program is still in question.


Draghi is exerting oneself not to appear hawkish in the past few months to avoid pushing the euro too high. It is yet to be known today is the policy is to be sustained. It will not be an easy task for him since the euro will most likely go up since there is no definite timeline of the QE tapering from the central bank. Other than that, the data from the U.S. in the past 24 hours has also been positive as the data on durable goods came out stronger than anticipated. As for the dollar, the GDP data would be significant which will be released from the U.S. tomorrow.


For today, consolidation is anticipated during the first half of the day while the traders are already preparing for the ECB release in the afternoon. Volatility will also be present in the trading following the announcement and the press conference. It is recommended to wait on the sidelines until everything has settled down.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: October 30, 2017


The U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar closed the week high which makes the next week trading to be awaited by traders. Initially, the dollar has been moving steadily but the negative data the previous week pushed the pair to climb above towards 1.26 level with risks imposing the possibility for a breakout towards the level of 1.27.


The movement of the trend was driven by the retail sales data from the Canada which was published in the previous week that gave out a week data and has further escalate doubts to the BOC which has an inclination to increase its rates in short-term. The loonies may have declined but with the incoming Monetary policy statement from the BOC and press conference would open the possibility to become hawkish again. Although, they have been clear in the past that the central bank would not raise their rates for the remaining months in 2017 and presumably even in the early months of the following year. This lessens the hope for it and frustrated the market which resulted to a sell-off in the loonies.


On the other side, the dollar has held steady and was further pushed by a positive GDP data that may have raised the possibility of a rate hike in December. The pair moved towards the 1.28 level and even further towards 1.29 by the end of the week. However, the prices were affected by the reports on who will be the succeeding Fed Chair with chances to be Powell. At the same time, the oil prices soared which assisted in strengthening the Canadian dollar and drove the price to close for the week.


For this week, the Canadian dollar is anticipated to rally in the beginning which includes settlement of payments in oil in the present time of the year. In the latter part of the week, the labor data from the U.S. and Canada are to be released which would have an impact on the prices of the pair. Moreover, if the results of the data are good, the USD/CAD pair would rally and this would confirm the next Fed rate hike in December.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 2, 2017


The EUR/USD pair waited for the FOMC minutes throughout the trading day on Wednesday, the minutes are expected to be issued during the American session. Aside from this pair, there are other many currency pairs that desire to know the thoughts of Fed members regarding the future rate hikes with expectations to help them determine the short-term trend for the U.S dollar.


This ensures that the single European currency was fixed in a very tight range at 30 pips, while markets in a long position understand that any choppy movement would lead to an unprofitable trade. Since the focus is centered on the positioning of trades prior the major news events coupled with large trends once the news was issued.

It became more interesting due to the subsequent news later this week which has equal of importance with concerns of the greens. It further opened the door for the possible reversal by the FOMC with the approaching news events.


The FOMC failed to achieve its target, however, most of the text remained unchanged, particularly the talks of future outlook that came in lower than market expectations. This resulted in a sudden minor shock for the USD, met some buying and pushed the bucks to a tight range until the end of the course after the minute's publication.

Considering all the projections formulated the entire day, the minutes conversely disappointed the markets which further triggered choppy data by means of the ADP report released earlier the day.


There are reports that confirmed Jerome Powell as the next head of the Fed Reserve but caused the dollar to weaken later this day, nevertheless, the effect of this news would likely be temporary.


Ultimately, the attention was turned towards the British pound as there are no releases from the United States or the European region for today. Hence, it is safe to say that there is some tight ranging and consolidation within the euro-dollar pair amid the trading day while waiting for the US employment statistics tomorrow which could roughly confirm the rate increase in December.