Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 24, 2017


The EUR/USD pair had a calm trading session on Wednesday. Soon after it climbed much higher with a bullish overall sentiment in the market. Overall, it is not surprising that the U.S. dollar is continuously sold. The manufacturing data from the European Union would not have any effect to the pair as it came out positively.


Considering the long-term charts, there is a bullish trend that is about to begin. Also, the ECB President Mario Draghi did not mention the value of the currency and it seems like that the central bank does not keep track of the value of the currency. If this is the case, the bullish tone of the pair will most likely continue especially if Janet Yellen gave off a slightly dovish hint on Friday.


The market will continue to buy on the lows which will significantly give more support. The 1.17 level positions as the support of the market and if the pair could maintain its level above the said level, the price could further go up. On the other hand, the 1.20 level gives off a significant resistance and an increase in momentum is already expected to reach the target level.


Meanwhile, it is possible that the market will buy short-term dips to raise a bigger position since a breakout occurred recently above the consolidation in the past few years that could soar the price up towards 1.25 level. Long-term trades would support the euro and selling of the U.S. dollar. However, it would be best to wait and consider the whole situation if a breakdown lower than the 1.17 level occurs.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: August 25, 2017


The U.S. dollar paired against the Japanese yen rallied on Thursday session as it reached the 109.50 level. However, the event related to the random tweets of the president reversed the situation and people are anxious on the budget issues in the United States. This resulted in simple noise which happens every now and then and turned around at a faster rate. The most awaited speech from Janet Yellen in Jackson Hole which would give a hint the outlook of the Fed regarding the economy. A hawkish sentiment would support the dollar and push it much higher. However, if she gives a dovish tone instead, this pair would plunge lower.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 30, 2017


The pound-dollar pair followed a pattern made by the single European currency and closed the day unchanged despite the high level of volatility throughout the day. Yesterday morning, we witnessed the weakening of the dollar that helped the GBPUSD to drove above the region 1.2950. Later the day, the strength of the greens returned and the Cable corrected under the 1.2950 level and ended the day unchanged.


The London market was able to have its initial reaction regarding the remarks of Yellen and Draghi last Friday. According to expectations, their reactions are focused to the dollar selling across the board.


Yellen did not provide support for the dollar amid its sluggish stance, hence this signaled traders to sell the USD. This assisted the pair to reach the 1.2950 zone and further drove near 1.30, however, stalled due to heavy selling. It leads to pair’s correction which helped to touch the 1.2920 support region as of the moment.


As the month nearly ends, the month end currency flows is expected which could influence the sterling in the near-term. In respect to the ongoing negotiations of Brexit, risks are also anticipated to put pressure on the GBP. however, as the greenbacks continue to weaken, the Cable would likely have extra support to ascend to 1.3030 in the short term.


Ultimately, there is no scheduled major release from the United Kingdom for the rest of the day, except for the US ADP employment report and Preliminary GDP data. Both data has the potential to cause volatility for the GBP/USD and has the chance to push the pair touch the 1.30 mark.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 31, 2017


The British pound moved sideways on Wednesday session as it consolidated and moved inconsistently. In the long run, the British currency will persist its decline and the latest surge was mainly due to the U.S. dollar. Hence, it would be best to sell this pair for short-term rallies but choppiness should be anticipated because of volatility present in the market. This pair was seen to offer support lower than the 1.2850 region.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 4, 2017


The manufacturing data has exceeded predictions which countered the weak U.S. jobs data sustaining the range of the dollar on Friday prior to the long weekend holiday in the United States. The seasonally adjusted jobs data that propelled much lower expectations yet an increase of 156,000 was much more serious than anticipated. The European Central Bank speech implies that inflationary targets have not been attained that impedes the movement of the currency pair.


The euro against the U.S. dollar rose after the weakened U.S. jobs data but declined soon-after. It maintained an uptrend ahead of the support region close to the 10-day moving average at 1.1860. The resistance of the currency pair was set as the weekly highs at 1.2070 region. There is no momentum while the price rate is moving higher at a slower pace. Thus, the MACD histogram was almost zero-index level with a flat course that results to a consolidation.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: September 5, 2017


Primarily, the sterling moved sideways on Monday, however, drove downwards to find some support and in order to make a rebound. The United States is currently in a holiday to celebrate the Labor Day, hence, the trading volume will be heightened during the European session.


Moreover, the market is having some conflicting pressure while players lack confidence about the possible increase of the Fed interest rates for this year. However, there are various concerns regarding the British exit from the European Union.


It is possible that the market will continue its choppiness which suggests to better trade in small positions. We should search for some pullback while the market should push lower touching the 1.2850 in the longer term. The 1.30 region appeared to be really resistive but when the 1.3050 area will be broken, buyers would likely take the driver’s seat once again.


It is expected that the market will keep on having some noise, but there is also a possibility that the market is seeking for clarity which is hard to look for because of the increasing noise in the markets.


It should be noted that the liquidity will not raise until the following week, considering that majority of the traders are not present due to the holiday.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: September 8, 2017


The US dollar weakened versus the safe-haven Japanese Yen amid Thursday’s session and tested the 108.50 handle. This level appeared to be an interesting area because it is the bottom of the longer-term consolidation. A close under this region of the daily candle will push the market downwards through the next major support hurdle, which is the level of 105 below.


Otherwise, when the market rebounded from that point, then it is possible to return to the 109.50 mark. It will take some time for the market to declare their targets and we are currently at a very significant region on the longer-term charts.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: September 11, 2017


The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen had a significant breakdown during the Friday session. Nevertheless, the market proceeds to move downward and a breakdown lower than 108.0 level gives a negative outlook. Hence, this could lead to a further decline and even lower than the 105 level. This gives a very pessimistic outlook and the concept of the Federal Reserve in not raising its interest rates for short-term would persist to have an effect on the market. It is next to monitor the equities which would also influence the next movement of the pair.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 13, 2017


European yields increased again together with the stabilization of risk appetite and revival of the global stock market that keeps buoying the EURUSD pair.


Eurozone peripherals had performed better while the European Central Bank assures for a cautious move as it prepares to ease off the stimulator. Meanwhile, the chain store sales of the United States declined after the destructive hurricanes Harvey and Irma that are predicted to put pressure on the national figures for this week.


The German economic ministry anticipates slow growth in the H2, which implies that employment growth might curb sentiment.


The euro-dollar pair formed another Doji day showing the opening and closing level were at the same point reflecting an indecision. The support highlighted the 1.1937 level close to the 10-day moving average. While the resistance came in at 1.2092 near the September peaks.


The momentum is in the neutral position and the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) indicator prints around the zero index level linked with a flat trajectory that shows some consolidation. Moreover, the RSI (relative strength index) known to be a momentum oscillator that assesses the increasing or decreasing momentum. The index prints a reading of 59 in the middle of the neutral range, which also indicates further consolidation.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: September 14, 2017


The U.S. dollar versus the Japanese yen rallied to the upper channel during the Wednesday session and there is an unabating buying pressure. The discussion on tax reform from the United States further worsens the situation since it came out earlier than expected. On the other hand, this is favorable for the greenback. This makes more U.S. companies more aggressive and in all likelihood boost the U.S. economy. On this condition, it is presumed that buyers will enter the market and attain the level of 111. If the market successfully breaks out, there is a potential for the price to move much higher.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: September 15, 2017


The British pound moves sideways during the beginning of the Thursday session. This surged to the upper channel after the Bank of England hinted that there will be interest rate hikes soon.


Hence, the market will most likely proceed with buying on the lows and it may not be wise to short this pair for now. For long-term, the pair will try to reach the 150 handle and above. Selling will be difficult for this pair and the 145-level or lower will continue to support the market which gives a bit of a bullish pressure.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 19, 2017


The euro-dollar pair remained almost unchanged as it stayed in the level 1.1953 under the 10-day moving average. On the other hand, the inflation came in at 1.5% which is lower the 2% target of the European Central Bank. Now, traders’ attention was turned to the Fed Reserve meeting on September 19 and 20, but there is no any expectations for the meeting. Moreover, the Fed had mentioned some ways in managing the bond purchase program. Contrarily, the Bundesbank assumes that growth will slow down in the second half of the fiscal year.


The EURUSD consolidated prior the meeting of the Federal Reserve which is scheduled tomorrow. The pair’s support hit the 1.1834 mark which is seen around the lows of the previous week. The resistance highlighted the region 1.2092 around the highs last week.


The momentum maintained a negative stance while the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) indicator prints in the red with a descending trajectory, pointing to lower exchange rate.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 20, 2017


The currency pair EUR/USD was able to make some slight improvement during the trading session yesterday, however, the pair resumed the consolidation prior the meeting of the Fed Reserve scheduled on Thursday.


The German Zew Investor confidence had increased which buoyed the euro-dollar pair, but the attention of the traders are centered towards the Federal Reserve. When they mentioned about quantitative tightening during the meeting, it would likely that the U.S. import prices will rise more than 2% year over year.


The EURUSD remained to sit on the 10-day moving average, and continued consolidating before the Fed meeting tomorrow. The pair’s support touched the 1.1834 level around the lows last week. On one side, the resistance entered the 1.2092 region near the highs of the previous week.


Moreover, prices seem to generate a bull flag formation serves a pause that refreshes upwards. The negative momentum is moving downwards while the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index is printing in the red showing an ascending trajectory that reflects for further consolidation.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: September 25, 2017


The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen declined during the Friday session as the market looks for support close to the 112 level. Hence, the market will be more appealing to buyers because of the Federal Reserve plans to reduce their balance sheet. This market is sensitive to the “risk on” factor added to the overall interest rate outlook for both central banks.


The Federal is way earlier than the Bank of Japan regarding the rise in interest rates that makes it highly probable to move to the upper channel. It may be not wise to short this pair for now. However, there are buying opportunities in pullbacks. On the weekly chart, there is a consolidation seen in the 108 level below and 114.50 level above for long term. The next target level will be 114.50 while a decline would offer value to the market. There might be some noise every now and then because of “risks off” incidents worldwide in consideration of the upsurge in the stock market.


Incremental increase and opening bigger positions are the best means of trading this pair in the background of an upward rally. If the market breaks over the 115 handle, it will lead to a “buy-and-hold” situation although this may take some time to happen. For now, buyers will predominate this pair for short-term to take advantage of the current situation.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 27, 2017


The British pound has been competing with the surge of the dollar and a basket of currencies is already behind of the currency. The performance of the British currency has been better than other currencies as reflected in the past few weeks as it was supported by the Bank of England and the U.K. government which keeps it from collapsing.


The central bank supports the currency which allows the probability of a rate hike for the year. It seems that the bank would not disturb the economy with the ongoing process of Brexit that flows at a faster pace than in their last meeting. Although, they noted that they would interfere when necessary. It has improved the confidence of the U.K. economy which also pushes the currency at a slower but steady in the past few weeks.


The U.K. government aptly proceeds with the Brexit process through their parliament which helped the situation and supported the pound to rise stronger over time. Although the U.K. Prime Minister May lengthened the timeline for Brexit in the new few years. In the meantime, her approach implies that the both the nation and the investors trust the economy.


Today, there is no major economic news from the U.K. anticipated but the durable goods data will be released from the U.S. The greenback is presumed to hold the current rates because of the expected announcement in the afternoon from Trump to implement a new tax system. Consequently, the GBP/USD pair will be put under pressure.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 4, 2017


The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen surged but then it declined towards the level of 113.25. It declined to the area of 112.75 with a bit of support. Hence, the market will attempt to rally from this level and resume the general uptrend recently. After some time, the price will further move up due to the risk of appetite from traders. Moreover, there is a possibility for the Federal Reserve to increase its rates or at least the be stricter with the monetary policy. Therefore, the market will move towards the 113.25 level then towards 114.50 and higher. The market will test the peak of the whole consolidation which sways to and fro. If the market successfully breaks higher than the 115 handle, the market would move much higher which is presumably towards 118 level.


If the price pullbacks from the said level, there would be more opportunities present to resume the value. It seems that the 112 will be largely supportive and the floor of consolidation will be seen at the level of 108. A pullback would open buying opportunities considering the support below. Eventually, both sellers and buyers will gain profits with the presence of volatility in the market if given sufficient time.


Notably, the market is influenced by the general stock market which is another indicator that must be monitored besides the S&P 500 and the DAX etc. Nevertheless, the stock market will climb higher as it is in a good condition.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 9, 2017


The U.S. dollar rallied to the upside in the course of the Friday session which came out following the mixed report of the jobs data. Although most traders will pay no attention to the jobs data in the aftermath of the two hurricanes. The 10-year interest rates in the U.S. also surged which further drove the market higher. There is a possibility got the USD/JPY major pair follow suit as there are no returns committed in the 10-year notes. Consequently, it seems that the market proceeds directed upward reaching the peak of the consolidation which is at the level of 114.50 up to the 115 handle. Overall, there will most likely be a breakout lower than 115 handle and the market should carry on with its uptrend at higher levels and result in a “buy-and-hold” trend.


There will be more buying positions when the trades decline and there is a chance for a pullback to occur and take profit of the outburst during the Friday session. The trend could possibly break to the upper channel and attain the level towards 120 handle which is a relevant target being a big round number. Volatility will still persist in the market yet there is a high chance for buyers to dominate since the comeback of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen. There will be less worry regarding the uptrend unless it breaks below 112.00 level. Nevertheless, there will be plenty of support found below. For the long term, buyers will have a trend in the market as the interest rates for 10-year notes from the U.S. will ascend in value which would remain to put pressure to progress upward in the market. At the same time, the stock market will advance which will also associate the pair.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: October 10, 2017


There is volatility present in trading the NZD/USD pair as it reached a lower limit in the opening on Monday where this will be reversed and fill the gap and proceed with a decline again. There is a possibility for this to reach the level of 0.70 where there will most likely be a support level. This area has been supportive in the past which was also resistive and anticipates volatility around that number. Take into consideration that the New Zealand is highly sensitive to commodities as well as the global risk appetite. It can be noted that the stock market is performing well although, there is less liquidity in the New Zealand dollar compared to other currencies. Hence, there will most likely be more volatility than other markets.


It underwent a downtrend in the past few days which signifies the continuation of a bearish pressure. It’s too early to say if the market will break lower than 0.70 region and if it does, this would not be a good sign. Hereinafter, the market will look for the 0.68 level below as the next target support level based on the long-term charts. Moreover, the Australian dollar is dropping which usually moves in the similar direction as the New Zealand dollar. It will either move up or be sold unless a breakout happens higher than the 0.7125 region and look at higher levels which is most likely above the 0.72 level. Volatility will not be surprising in this pair and seller will consider the riskier currencies in the present.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: October 11, 2017


The British currency traded sideways versus the Japanese yen and continue to hold the 148 handle. This level has gained lots of attention lately and it seems ready to move from side to side, as of this writing. However, a break on top of the 140.50 region will push the markets to go above the 150 handle. This region acquired attention with longer-term considering it’s a large, round, psychologically significant number. A cut through over that area would enable the market to continue moving upwards in the longer-term and the target to reach the 155 mark eventually.


A pull back from that region could possibly drive the market near the 147 level below, which appears to be very supportive. With the given scenario, the market is required to search for buyers around that range. But a breakdown beneath that would likely descend to 145 handle which is a round number where traders are continuously involved in such target regions.


There is a tendency that the market would be highly sensitive to risk appetite and participants should be paying attention to stock markets because the pound-yen pair might ascend in case a rally occurs or decline upon the roll over. Moreover, volatility is projected to enter the market and the reason for the sideways trading and the short term is the expectations for further actions by the Fed Reserve. Generally, world markets are slightly overbought and it is helpful if the bullish pressure will keep on going. In the meantime, traders should wait for signals.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 12, 2017


The U.S. dollar declined at the outset of Wednesday’s trading session, however, the bucks were able to find support on top the 112 handle to conduct a reversal, showing active existence.

The American dollar must keep on finding lots of support at 112 level because every pull back will provide plenty of support from that region. It is better when it offered some “floor” but a break down underneath there would offer a massive support below the 111 mark. With this, buyers will return to the market in a short period of time except when the Federal Reserve rejected the proposed interest rate hike.


The issue about rate hike has been the talk of the town for some time and maybe it’s time for the Fed to have at least some hints about their position regarding this matter, as the market really needs to see some progress or else they might lose their credibility. Many are intrigued on how many times the Fed will increase its rates which most participants would search within the Meeting Minutes. Hence, it will take some time to get a clear answer but this idea was already established within the marketplace and probably there is no any reason to conduct such rally.

The Bank of Japan remains to be soft which makes it reasonable to enter the 114.50 region. This level is the top of the longer-term consolidation. It appears that market imposes a “buy only” mode.