Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 27, 2017


The USD/CAD pair remains confined within its previous trading range of 1.3200 and 1.3300 points as there were no major events yesterday that could have swayed the current stance of the loonie. As the US dollar has been gaining more and more momentum due to the release of a positive durable goods data, this has been subsequently countered by an oil price surge on the side of the Canadian dollar, and this is why the USD/CAD pair has been in a deadlock as these events have cancelled out the effects of one another.


Oil prices are still consolidating within its price lows but tension within oil-producing countries has lent some additional support for oil prices, enabling them to surge at over $43 per barrel. Since the loonie is highly dependent on oil prices, the USD/CAD pair is then expected to increase subsequently in line with the increase in oil prices. The Fed chose to brush off the weak data coming from the US economy and still went ahead with its planned rate hike, but the market is not yet sure of the timing of the next rate hike since the dollar strength has not yet established itself as far as traders are concerned. This is why the market is now closely monitoring the incoming readings from the US in the short term in order to determine if the Fed is correct with its assumption that the US will be set to release a slew of positive data. If indeed these data comes out as positive, then the dollar strength should further increase as well.


For today’s trading session, Janet Yellen is set to make a statement within the day but the USD/CAD pair is expected to remain consolidating within its previous trading range.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: June 30, 2017


The British currency rallied amid Thursday trading session as it reached the 1.30 region. Upon breaking the mentioned area allows the market to lead over the top of 1.3450 in the longer-term.


In doing so, a series of pullback has to be done in the short-term and then, the market is expected to deal with a “buy on the dips” situation. It further requires a bit of cautiousness when purchasing with that high level, however, it does not necessary to sell but should imply more patience.


The Friday would likely to be a quiet session since the presence of volatility in the market is high in the past few trades. Currency markets should take a break at least once in awhile and we believe that this is the perfect timing to do so.


Furthermore, the Canadian and the US independence days are scheduled for the next days which is suspected of draining the liquidity on North America.


With this, there is a possibility that movements are very limited in the next 24 hours which could last until Wednesday next week. However, an upward bias is certainly expected since most market reflects this path.


The most suitable way to engage with this market is to search for the value from pullbacks or waiting for a breakout confirmation.


Headline risks are projected due to divorce proceedings which involve the countries, EU and U.S, nonetheless, the market seems favors the side of the sterling pound.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: July 5, 2017



The sterling pound trade sideways during the course on Tuesday while the choppiness remained in the market shown with a slightly negative tone. The 1.29 region should gain enough support since the market is predicted to receive large trading volumes after the US Independence Day holiday.



The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes will come out amid the session which could likely put pressure towards the market, it will also gauge how hawkish is the Fed Reserve.



The market choppiness is expected to continue due to concerns regarding the United Kingdom and the European Union. The British currency is possible to move rapidly without hints as far as the news releases continue to be issued out.



When the bullish pressure was able to maintain its position, it could be a significant factor in the market. Aside from 1.29 mark, more support can be found in the 1.28 range below which provides massive support, the mentioned range could probably the “bottom” of the most current impulsive trend.



An ability to break down under that point will cancel all bets, however, staying on top of this level requires to look for impulsive moves or supportive candle to the upside in order to make money work.



A break over the level 1.3050 freezes this market to move towards the 1.3450 region eventually. Shorting seems unattractive till we reach down the 1.28 handle, however, when we get there the market could possibly decline through 1.26 region. This also influences the Federal Reserve about its hawkish stance which could affect everything that moves ahead to the currency markets.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: July 06, 2017


The trend line close to the 1.3030 level was achieved overnight which is already expected. Currently, the resistance region is being tested by traders from below. The uptrend is anticipated to continue in the upper region. The 1.1829 level is the limit amid the impulsive trend that cannot be breached.


The WS1 was positioned at 1.2788 followed by WS2 at 1.2698 with the weekly pivot at 1.2952 and the intraday support at 1.3015. On the other hand, its WR1 is found at 1.3045 with the Top wave or the intraday resistance at 1.3118 level.


For today, it is conducive in trading to keep all the buy orders open and set the stop-loss (S/L) below the 1.2829 mark since the trend is anticipated to bounce and proceed to go further upward.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: July 7, 2017


The British currency went to a volatile session on Thursday and traded sideways, however, returned to the 1.2980 region and test the region 1.2930 another time.


The market also contained significant amount of support under the 1.29 mark and attempts to touch the 1.30 area eventually. This is an area that could offer massive resistance and extends towards 1.3050, but a cut through over that level enable the market to climb higher near the longer-term target at 1.3450


Remember that the Nonfarm Payroll is released every first friday of the month which is today, therefore, the US dollar is expected to have plenty movement in general. An ability to break down from this point, we shall see the 1.28 region to provide support. The area below there will affect the sterling pound.


The pullbacks could possibly have some value opportunities showing a strong uptrend. A break down beneath the 1.28 range will initiate buying the dips on the candles that looks supportive. This could be difficult enough to stay in a trend for a relative amount of time not until a cut over the massive resistance found at the 1.3050 region.


When this happens, winning positions could be improved to the upside. Otherwise, a breakdown under the 1.28 will urge to the market to look for 1.26.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 10, 2017


The EURUSD traded sideways during Friday’s trading and experienced a session with high volatility since US job figures took a longer time than the anticipated. Nevertheless, as the session ends it appeared that the pair begins to demonstrate stronger stance once again while the weekly candle generates a hammer formation.


The market would likely make an attempt to reach the 1.15 region where a significant resistance was seen in the past 3 years. Ability to break above it and a daily or weekly close would indicate a bullish sign showing that the market is apt to resume to go near the 1.18 handle.


Having said that, the market is currently in the “buy on the dips” condition in the near-term.

In case that the 1.15 handle was able to be broken down, it will suggest a major signal that the downward trend has ended. On one side, buyers will consider the single European currency in the longer-term or maybe tries to push it up towards the higher levels.


This is a situation where the Fed is thinking about the increase in interest rates, however, the European Central Bank recently mentioned the tightening of monetary policy which is quite surprising. With this, the pair requires some rebalancing which we have been witnessed.


Otherwise, a break down under the 1.1350 area will test the 1.13 level and a breakdown below that point will consider the 1.11 mark eventually.


The overall market seems equal and buyers are currently in the driver’s seat.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 11, 2017


The market had a long day yesterday since there are few market drivers present in the market which resulted in a low volatility and low liquidity as well. This naturally occurs during the first day of the week, except when there is a special progress happened over the weekend, but there were none. There are expectations for further actions for this day since traders already recovered from its weekend blues and started to continue trading.


The EURUSD does not move a lot in the past 24 hours by which the pair moved on a certain side of the 1.14 region without any development in a particular direction. The US dollar remained steady and it’s quite surprising that American traders failed to lead the run during a follow-up action on Friday. Moreover, the NFP report showed a moderately strong position that relieved the fears and uncertainties towards the US economy and this also help the greenbacks to stabilize.

On the first part of the day, it is anticipated that US traders will support the USD to gain further, however, unable to accomplish it. The concerns regarding the ability of the Trump administration to implement their policies remain to continue, but there are barriers in every step. The possibility that the United States will face difficulty for the next couple of years increases in consideration with the changes in policy. This also explains the hesitation of investors and traders about not engaging with the greens, even if the employment report was stable.


Some reports say that the ECB may not deal with tapering in the next months but it did not bring such impact against the EUR.


Ultimately, there are no major economic releases except for the speech from a Fed member later this day. It is projected for more actions this day on the back of market’s inactivity but the favor remains for the euro-dollar pair.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: July 18, 2017


The British currency slightly weakened on Monday as traders returned to the market. The market is trying to re-enter the break out level to look for additional buyers. This is because of the “profit collecting” in the near-term.


Moreover, we can take advantage by searching for a bounce. The 1.30 region would likely be offering lots of support which is previously known to be resistive.


The US dollar has recently become competitive and it looks like it will resume because of the tightening policy of the Fed Reserve which seems to be slightly firm than expected.


The sterling was oversold for the past few months which led the people to conclude that the British exit isn’t that critical. However, it doesn’t mean that this will not undermine the British economy or maybe the market just reacted exaggeratedly with regards to the vote.


Having said that, the market would still continue to search for more buyers for the pound and the next goal can be found above the consolidation area which was previously part of 1.3450 level. It does not necessarily mean that it would be so easy and will acquire some pullbacks because the market remains to be volatile but there are longer-term buyers who start collecting GBP since it has lower cost in the past.


When the economy of Britain was able to fully recover, the GBP will depreciate hence many traders will find a way to raise the value of one of the world’s strongest economies.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: July 20, 2017


The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen moved sideways in the beginning of the Wednesday session followed by a breakdown towards 112 level. It further goes down towards the 111.50 region where sellers are anticipated to be seen. The 111 level offers sufficient support although the “real” support is found around the 110 handle.


This area is presumed to have a buying pressure while the short-term sellers will persist on pushing the price down. As long as it stays over the 112.50 region, the sellers will have the leverage. If the market successfully breaks above the said level, the trend could be reversed and reach towards the 113 handle. A break above it would then push the price towards 114 level.


The 112 level is a significant level in this chart and the market will persist to be highly volatile. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar will be at a disadvantage because of interest rate issue. Overall, the market will proceed with a selloff as the trend rallies.


For the long term, buyers can be seen close to the 110 handle in consideration of technical outlook. Volatility will remain which is usually the case and the pair will persist to be highly sensitive to the major news will be released from the Federal Reserve. It is possible to for both buyers and sellers to get what they want after some time. There are different positions possible for various traders as the volatility picks up in the market.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 25, 2017


The yields across the eurozone weakened while the US dollar make further progress and the 10-year bund yields moved lower at 0.50% as the spreads of the euro area narrowed, following the sluggish results of the PMI readings based on the doubts of M.Draghi to get involve with the QE tapering.


The fresh dip in long yields influenced the EURUSD, however, the remarks from Mersch yesterday verified the postponement and not the cancellation of the QE. Moreover, the ECB will reduce the volume of its asset-buying program which is expected to start earlier in 2018.


The euro-dollar pair rallied to its renewed 23-month high around 1.1694 level and headed lower amid the balance of the trading hours to close the day.


The support for the pair entered the 1.1523 region that is near the 10-day moving average. The resistance reached the 1.1717 mark near the highs of August 2015.


The momentum is still positive as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) index prints in the black linked with an ascending trajectory and seen pointing to a higher exchange rate.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: July 27, 2017


The British pound against the U.S. dollar moved sideways in the beginning of the Wednesday session. There is sufficient support found at the 1.30 level which pushes the trend to the upside. Later on, it is possible for the market to break the current psychological levels with the FOMC announcement to be released in the afternoon. Nevertheless, the markets were quiet as they wait for any hints from the Federal Reserve.


If traders can maintain traders more than the 1.30 level, the GBP/USD pair could move higher towards 1.3125 level and even much higher. There are still buying opportunities on the lows in the market since the British pound became cheaper.


Buying lows in the market are suggested instead of selling until a breakdown occurs below the massive support level. Unless it reaches lower than 1.2950, it is alright to sell the pair. However, if it drops even much lower, it is possible to drop even much more that would change the trend when it happens.


Buyers are more aggressive and it would not take long before they return to the market. If the trend gaps in the upper region, it will most likely reach the 1.3450 level which is possible after some time. Many major events that would come out from politicians could affect the British currency. The uptrend will presumably to continue in the long-term. Also, the pullbacks could offer opportunities in the market at a cheaper level.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: July 28, 2017


The Australian dollar rallied in the beginning of Thursday session. There is sufficient resistance found at the 0.8050 level to reverse the trend and drop lower than the 0.80 level. The 0.7975 handle is being tested as the support level which was the former resistance level.


A pullback gives out a buying opportunity although this has been resistive previously. Yet, the market would not have an easy time to move higher. Although after some time, the pair would continue to move on the upper side as the U.S. dollar will proceed in a subdued manner.


As expected, the gold market will have an impact on the Australian currency.Hence, when it surges, the Aussie will follow. If it can break successfully more the 0.8065 handle, then the market will aim for 0.81 level above as the next target then eventually towards the 0.82 level.


There are opportunities in the volatility of the Australian dollar as it is a strong currency because of gold and the depreciation of the dollar for long-term. After some time, there will be more buyers for the Australian dollar and look for much higher levels.


There is a possibility for a rebound close to the 0.80 handle despite the long-term direction of the market is upward which includes the Australian dollar and not just gold. There has been a pause in the rally of the U.S. dollar that brings some noise in the market as it has been moving subtly over the long-term. There is a likelihood for buyers to return to the market.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 2, 2017


There is high volatility during the Tuesday session as it reached the 1.3250 level but was reversed later on. It seems that the 1.32 level is being supportive as the trend proceed moving higher.


A break lower would push the market for a support towards 1.3150 level then to 1.31 level. The British pound is going to be sensitive to a lot of noise which is anticipated as amid the negotiations from the European Union and the United Kingdom. Hence, traders should be cautious of the of any abrupt changes in this pair.


The bullishness could persist for the long term. Although, this has been quite extended in the present time. A pullback opens more opportunity to make use of the current value. The market could target for a 1.3450 level above which the peak of the consolidation for the past few months.


However, if the market successfully gaps higher than the 1.3450 level, the next retest would be at 1.35 handle. A breakout would mean large bullish tone but it will not be long before the currency starts to rally once again. There will be high volatility from the start until this period ends.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 2, 2017


The European yields declined, even though the European stock markets acquired broad gains, hence this maintained the stability of the EURUSD pair.


The downward revision on the Eurozone manufacturing PMI put pressure on German yields, as the euro remained with an upright position and the growth rate of EMU Q2 GDP is steady at 0.6% quarter over quarter. While the unemployment figures in Germany fell which enable the ECB to manage the reduction of asset purchases next year.


In Europe, the strong euro holds over the 1.18 region against the USD will turn the cautious approach of Draghi against QE tapering, despite the prevailing strength of Q2 growth, the PMI numbers remain to present strong growth while the jobless figures resumed its decline.


The EUR/USD pair consolidated and generated an inside day which suggests indecision. The EU yields continue to buoy and the interest rate differential points towards a higher euro-dollar pair.


The support can be seen at 1.1689 level, close to the 10-day moving average. The resistance highlighted the 1.1845 mark near the peaks of July. The pair’s momentum hovered in the positive zone and the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) index prints in the black with an ascending trajectory driving through a higher exchange rate.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 4, 2017


The results of the European yields were mixed as it restricted the uptrend of the euro which signifies that Draghi has successfully kept the rates low. The ECB sees the need for the continuous support because of the less than expected result of the PMI. The European retail sales set in stronger than anticipated but this was countered by high jobless claims.


The EUR/USD was not able to surpass yesterday’s range but was able to increase the support level. Nevertheless, the trend persists to be positive with the support close to the 10-day Moving Average at 1.1747. The resistance level is seen close to the weekly highs at 1.1910.


Overall, the momentum is optimistic with the MACD histogram shown a black indicator with an upward sloping direction that could lead to a higher exchange rate. The RSI positioned higher with the price indicating a positive momentum upward. Currently, the price is set at 77 which is higher than the trigger level 70 to enter the overbought area. Hence, a correction is possible to occur.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Longest Decline in UK Consumer Spending since 2013


British consumers lessened their expenditures for the third month in July, leading them into the worst decline in four years or longer. This also causes another economic impact at the beginning of the quarter.


According to a report published on Monday, IHS Markit and Visa said that the decline in spending was 0.8 percent year-on-year which appeared to be wide-ranging as the apparel, foods, household goods and transport suffered the hardest hit.


The downturn is compelled by consumers belt tightening because of the inflation rise over wage growth and shoppers’ concerns regarding the extensive outlook after the economic slowdown during the Q1 in 2017.


The negative report was issued after the Bank of England decided to lower its forecast for the economy. BOE Governor Mark Carney gave a warning about the uncertainty of Brexit that puts pressure towards businesses and households.


The consumer figures for July showed a 6 percent growth in spending on hotels, bars, and restaurants. The Markit mentioned that this may be somewhat relative to the expansion of “staycations,” as the sterling pound weakened which makes overseas holiday become more costly.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: August 8, 2017


The U.S. dollar weakened slightly on the start of Monday session but was reversed to move in the upper channel. It might be difficult to challenge the 111 level but it is possible to break above it with the strong jobs data from the U.S. At the same time, the pair is highly reliant to 10-year bonds from both countries.


The interest rates are anticipated to rally in the bond markets since it seems that the Federal Reserve will be forced for a rate hike as of now. This would favor the U.S. dollar. Nevertheless, the Japanese yen is the choice in funding currency. The very low rates make it probable to extend gains with the next target at 112.50 level above which is appealing lately.


The pair continues to move lower where it still remains valuable for every drop in price. Besides the Japanese currency, the U.S. dollar is about to be behind of various currencies. The Canadian dollar has been slumped in the past few days which persists to be the situating. The bond market between Canada and the U.S. is also appealing.


The 110 level is being supportive which could proceed to move in the upside. In the past 4 months, the market tries to change the direction of the trend and it seems that it is getting stronger to move in the upside. Traders could wait for some months, those who are willing to wait.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 10, 2017


The GBP/USD hovered around the tight range of 60 pips after breaking the significant support level at 1.3030. Due to the absence of some economic and fundamental indicators, the Cable was pushed through the consolidation and ranging period.


The pound-dollar pair remains to be sluggish and attempted to break back the weak support that became the resistance. This was immediately broken by a lot of selling on Wednesday. As of this writing, it currently trades under the 1.3000 mark.


We don’t expect any economic releases from the United Kingdom within this week, as the volatility and further actions needed to complete from last week.


The Bank of England announced for some growth and British inflation fears. The UK was strained to live with uncertainties due to Brexit procedures while traders should track down upcoming UK economic statistics in order to measure how does Britain deal with the EU exit.

Due to lack of fundamental and economic drivers in the market, the GBP/USD struggled in the past couple of days and the weakness of the Cable was clearly seen by everyone.


It is projected that the weakness will continue in the near-term when the British economic data came under renewed focus.


The United Kingdom was able to manage well in terms of economic indicators, however, the statistics became choppy previously. This triggered concerns about the impact of Brexit which begins to take place.


Ultimately, the manufacturing data from the United Kingdom was released with bulls that expect for strong results in order to raise the plunging Sterling pound. In addition to it, the US PPI data will be issued and should be watched carefully to assess whether the American data will resume recovering. Moreover, expect higher volatility for the GBPUSD this day.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: August 14, 2017


The U.S. dollar rebounded on Friday as it reached the 109 level which seems to be appealing to most traders. There is a high volatility for this currency pair with noises involved between North Korea and America. People are looking for safety currencies such as the Japanese yen to move forward.


There are various noises found at any moment which seems to persist. After some time, there will be more opportunities for long-term although sellers are predominantly taking over for short-term.


It is suggested to trade in small positions amid a highly volatile environment. However, if the price breaks higher than the 110 level which indicates the strengthening of the market that could reverse the trend and induce higher volume of purchases.


A pullback to the 105 level is possible since there is more support found in there. This would make trading more complicated and it is anticipated to have sudden fluctuations which could induce fear globally. Overall, volatility will be a big problem with the currency pair.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: August 23, 2017


The British pound against the Japanese yen surged at the beginning of the Tuesday session although there has been difficulty in the former uptrend line which has a breakout recently around the level of 141. Hereinafter, they have been moving in a bullish stance. The 140 level will most likely be the support level with a bit of consolidation with a negative tone.


Although the Japanese yen has been weaker during the trading session, the pound has been moving in a similar way that lessens the risk of the pair to collapse. There was a fresh, new low signals selling of the pair. If the pair breaks over the 141 handle, there would be a bullish sentiment.


The market is sensitive for a risk appetite which would induce the market reaction to the stock markets, commodities, and other markets. It won’t take long before the market left and if this persists to rise but there is still a risk with the Brexit process. The volatility will return to the market soon. Trades have to careful of the weakened market condition which could pose a problem in trading.