Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (January 7, 2013)

USD

The US dollar lost some of its shine in yesterday’s trading when the US ISM manufacturing PMI fell short of consensus. The actual figure dropped from 53.9 to 53.0 instead of improving to the estimated 54.6 reading. Factory orders, on the other hand, posted a 1.8% rebound as expected while the previous figure was revised to show a smaller decline. Up ahead, the US has its trade balance on tap and a smaller deficit of 40.2 billion USD is expected from the previous 40.6 billion USD shortfall.

EUR

The euro gave up more ground to the dollar in yesterday’s trading as services PMI came in mixed. Italy showed a weaker than expected reading of 47.9 instead of the estimated 48.9 reading but it was still an improvement from the previous 47.2. Spain showed a better than expected 54.2 reading, up from the previous 51.5 figure. German CPI came in line with consensus of a 0.4% uptick. For today, German retail sales and unemployment change data are up for release. Retail sales could rebound by 0.5% from the previous 0.8% decline while unemployment could decline by 1K.

GBP

The pound dipped lower in yesterday’s trading as UK services PMI fell short of expectations. The figure slipped from 60.0 to 58.8 instead of improving to the projected 60.4 reading. The services sector accounts for a huge chunk of growth in the UK economy so a slower expansion could be hinting at weaker GDP later on. For today though, there are no major reports due from the UK as traders brace themselves for the BOE interest rate decision later on in the week.

CHF

The franc lost further ground in yesterday’s trading as there were no major reports from Switzerland to give it a boost. Today could be more of the same story, as the foreign currency reserves report is the only one on tap. This doesn’t normally have a huge impact on franc movement, unless the actual figure comes in way off expectations.

JPY

The yen was able to flex its muscles in yesterday’s trading when the Nikkei stock index showed some declines. There were no reports released from Japan then but the Nikkei survey over the weekend led to weaker business confidence, which then boosted the safe-haven yen. For today, there are no major reports lined up from Japan so market sentiment might be a bigger mover for the yen.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls drew a bit of support in yesterday’s trading, despite the lack of major reports from Australia, Canada, or New Zealand. Earlier today, Australia’s trade balance came in better than expected at -0.12 billion AUD versus the estimated 0.30 billion shortfall while the previous figure was revised to show a smaller deficit. Up ahead, Canada has the Ivey PMI report on tap and an improvement from 53.7 to 55.0 is expected.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (January 9, 2014)

USD

The US dollar gained ground against its major counterparts as the ADP employment report printed stronger than expected gains of 238K versus the estimate at 199K. In addition, the FOMC minutes showed that the Fed will proceed with a cautious taper as most policymakers acknowledged the latest improvements in hiring. However, some debated about lowering the unemployment target but others argued that this would simply confuse the markets. Only the initial jobless claims report is up for release today as the dollar might be in for quiet trading ahead of the NFP release.

EUR

The euro lost further ground to the dollar in yesterday’s trading, as the euro zone printed mixed economic reports. German trade balance was weaker than expected at a surplus of 17.8 billion EUR instead of the estimated 18.9 billion EUR. Italy’s monthly unemployment rate climbed from 12.5% to 12.7%, worse than the consensus at 12.6%. Meanwhile, euro zone retail sales jumped by 1.4% instead of the estimated 0.2% uptick while the jobless rate held steady at 12.1%.

GBP

The pound was the only currency that held strong against the dollar rally, despite the weaker than expected report released from the UK. The Halifax HPI came in at -0.6% versus the estimate at +0.6% while the previous figure was revised down to 0.9%. Up ahead we have the BOE interest rate decision and although no actual monetary policy changes are expected, market watchers are waiting to see if the UK central bank will have any change in rhetoric.

CHF

The franc lost further ground to the dollar, as USD/CHF solidified its break above the falling trend line on the daily time frame. More rallies could be in the cards for this pair, as there are no major reports lined up from Switzerland today.

JPY

The yen lost ground to its counterparts yesterday as risk appetite improved and the Nikkei posted a positive close for the day. There are no reports due from Japan today so watch out for market sentiment to drive yen pairs.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Canadian dollar continued its losing streak in yesterday’s trading, followed soon after by the Australian dollar. Inflation reports from China turned out weaker than expected with the CPI falling from 3.0% to 2.5% instead of the estimate at 2.7%. Building approvals in Australia was also weaker than expected but retail sales was slightly stronger. Canadian building permits is up for release later on and there are no reports due from New Zealand.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (January 10, 2014)

USD

The US dollar’s movement was relatively subdued yesterday, as there were no major reports released from the US. The only data printed was the initial jobless claims report, which came in stronger than expected at 333K versus the estimate at 337K. However, the previous month’s reading was revised higher to 345K. Up ahead, the much anticipated NFP report is up for release and it could show a 196K increase in hiring, enough to keep the jobless rate steady at 7.0%. A stronger than expected figure might boost the US dollar.

EUR

The euro tried to hold steady against the US dollar in yesterday’s trading, despite remarks from Draghi that further easing might be necessary. There were no actual changes to monetary policy or interest rates during the ECB rate statement. For today, French industrial production and euro zone final GDP are up for release. Further signs of weakness could push the euro lower against its counterparts.

GBP

The pound managed to hold on to its recent levels after the BOE decided to keep interest rates and asset purchases unchanged despite a few signs of a slowdown in the UK. UK manufacturing production is up for release today and another 0.4% uptick is eyed, but a weaker than expected reading could erase some of the pound’s gains.

CHF

There were no reports released from Switzerland yesterday, which was why the franc continued to cave under dollar strength. For today, CPI is up for release and a 0.1% decline in price levels is eyed after the flat reading in the previous month. A sharper decline in inflation might be negative for the franc as it could give the central bank room to ease.

JPY

The yen put up a good fight yesterday despite the lack of major reports from Japan. Today, the leading indicators index is up for release and might show a small improvement, which might be positive for yen pairs and the Nikkei. No other reports are due from Japan so watch out for any potential changes in market sentiment.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Canadian dollar carried on with its losing streak to the dollar as the Canadian building permits showed another weaker than expected reading of -6.7% instead of just -2.3%. Canadian jobs data is up for release today and further signs of weakness could push USD/CAD past 1.0900. As for the Australian dollar, it is currently testing a major support level to the dollar while Chinese data has increased the downside pressure. China’s trade balance came in below consensus and reflected a slowdown in trade. As for New Zealand, there has been no major data on tap, keeping NZD/USD in a range.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (January 13, 2014)

USD

The US dollar was sold off sharply on Friday when the NFP report printed weaker than expected results. The actual figure showed a 74K rise in hiring when analysts were expecting to see roughly 200K in jobs gains. However, the jobless rate fell from 7.2% to 6.7% as the participation rate fell. With that, FOMC officials might continue to debate on whether or not to adjust the jobless rate target of 6.5% lower or not. Up ahead, there are no major reports due from the US economy so traders might keep pricing in their expectations for Fed policy changes depending on the latest jobs release.

EUR

The euro rebounded to the dollar last Friday, as the shared currency took advantage of weak US data. French industrial production data came in better than expected and showed a 1.3% increase versus the estimated 0.6% uptick. Italian industrial production is up for release today and a 0.6% increase is expected.

GBP

The pound recovered to the 1.6500 area against the dollar on Friday, thanks to weaker than expected NFP data. UK manufacturing production was weaker than expected as the report showed a flat reading instead of the estimated 0.4% uptick while the previous month’s report was revised lower. There are no reports due from the UK today.

CHF

The franc gave up some gains to the dollar when the Swiss CPI report came in below consensus and showed a 0.2% decline in price levels but USD/CHF soon retreated when the US had its share of bleak data. There are no reports lined up from Switzerland today so USD/CHF might be vulnerable to market sentiment.

JPY

Japanese banks are on holiday today yet yen pairs saw a bit of movement. USD/JPY slipped below the 104.00 mark on the heels of weak US data and risk aversion. Japan’s leading indicators came in line with consensus and allowed the Nikkei to gain a bit of ground. Yen pairs’ behavior might be in line with Asian equities performance for the day.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls took advantage of dollar weakness on Friday, except for the Canadian dollar which was weighed down by weak data. The Canadian jobs report showed a decline in hiring of close to 50K, enough to bring their jobless rate up from 6.9% to 7.2%. The BOC business outlook survey is up for release today, along with the NZIER business confidence. Earlier today, Australia reported a 0.7% decline in ANZ job advertisements, spelling weak prospects for the labor report due this week.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (January 14, 2014)

USD

The US dollar gave up a lot of ground to its major counterparts as there were no reports to support the US currency yesterday. The Federal budget balance came in better than expected and printed a larger surplus but was not enough to keep the dollar afloat. Today could be a different story as the US retail sales reports are due. Headline retail sales could see a 0.2% uptick while core retail sales might post another 0.4% increase. Bear in mind though that weaknesses in the labor market could result in poor consumer spending data but holiday spending could make up for that.

EUR

The euro rebounded against the dollar but caved to yen strength in yesterday’s trading as risk aversion took over the markets. There were no major reports released from the euro zone as the medium-tier Italian industrial production report printed weaker than expected results. For today, another set of low-impact reports are due from the euro zone so euro pairs might be more sensitive to risk flows.

GBP

The pound was unable to take advantage of dollar weakness yesterday, as the UK currency slipped against the yen as well. There have been no reports released from the UK then but traders are starting to worry that the UK is pulling back from its recovery. UK CPI is up for release today and the headline figure might show a 2.1% increase.

CHF

The franc found its legs in yesterday’s trading as it pushed USD/CHF back below the .9000 major psychological level. There were no reports released from Switzerland, as dollar weakness was the main driver of price action for the pair. There are still no reports due from the country today so risk sentiment might continue to push USD/CHF around.

JPY

The yen was in for a treat yesterday, as the low-yielding currency took advantage of risk aversion. USD/JPY made a strong break below its rising trend line while reversal chart patterns on other yen pairs were confirmed. Japanese traders are back from their holiday and we are seeing a set of Japanese data come in line with expectations. Bank lending showed a 2.3% uptick while the current account deficit landed at 0.05 trillion JPY.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Comdolls breathed a sigh of relief yesterday, as commodities posted rebounds in prices. However, the Loonie is still being weighed down by weak fundamental data and the Kiwi could get dragged lower by the recent Fonterra recall. A few Chinese medium-tier reports such as new loans and money supply are up for release and these might move the Australian dollar.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (January 16, 2014)

USD

The US dollar saw a share of mixed data in the latest US session, as the core PPI and Empire State index both beat expectations but the headline PPI came up short. Core producer prices rose by 0.3% instead of the estimated 0.1% uptick while headline producer prices saw a 0.4% increase instead of the projected 0.5% rise. Meanwhile, the manufacturing index jumped from 1.0 to 12.5, outpacing the estimate at 3.2. Up ahead, CPI and jobless claims data are up for release. The headline CPI could show a 0.3% uptick while the core could print a 0.1% increase. Initial jobless claims are expected to be at 327K, lower than the 330K figure seen last week.

EUR

The euro continued to slide lower to the dollar, as it slipped below the 1.3600 major psychological level. There have been no major reports released from the euro zone recently and only the CPI figures are up for release today. Bear in mind though that talks of deflation have been running recently, and weaker than expected inflation reports might renew speculations of further LTRO or negative deposit rates, which would be negative for the euro.

GBP

The pound gave up more ground to the dollar in yesterday’s trading, despite the lack of top-tier data from the UK. BOE Governor Carney’s speech did not contain any surprises but it was enough to spark a little more volatility for the pound pairs. Earlier today, the RICS house price balance came in short of consensus at 56% instead of the estimated 59%. No other reports are due from the UK today.

CHF

The franc lost more gains to the dollar, as USD/CHF edged up to the .9100 major psychological level. Data from Switzerland was actually stronger than expected, with retail sales growing by 4.2% instead of the estimated 2.3% rise. There are no reports due from Switzerland today so risk aversion might keep driving this pair higher.

JPY

The Japanese economy printed mixed data earlier, with core machinery orders surpassing expectations and the tertiary industry activity index falling short of consensus. This might lead to declines in the Nikkei overall and possibly weigh on the yen pairs if risk aversion stays in the market.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Australian dollar got another blow in today’s Asian trading session, as the jobs data showed a 22.6K drop in hiring instead of the estimated 10.3K increase. Although the jobless rate held steady at 5.8% and there were no revisions to the previous figure, the dismal report could keep dragging the Aussie lower for the rest of the week. As for Canada and New Zealand, there have been no major reports recently and none are due today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (January 17, 2014)

USD

The US dollar retreated from its strong rallies in yesterday’s trading, thanks to the lack of major data from the US economy. Medium-tier reports came in mostly in line with expectations, as the core CPI showed a 0.1% uptick while the initial jobless claims report indicated a 326K figure. The Philly Fed index came in better than expected with a 9.3 reading versus the estimated 8.8 figure. US building permits and housing starts, along with the preliminary consumer sentiment data, are up for release today.

EUR

The euro found some support around the 1.3600 handle against the dollar, as there were no negative reports released from the euro zone yesterday. Data came in mostly in line with expectations, with only the core CPI missing the forecast of a 0.9% increase and showing a 0.7% uptick. There are no major reports lined up from the euro zone today so range-bound behavior of euro pairs might carry on.

GBP

The pound was also stuck in consolidation against the US dollar but with a slight downside bias. There have been no major reports released from the UK yesterday, as traders are awaiting the retail sales report today. The consumer spending report could print a 0.5% increase for December and a stronger than expected reading might trigger a bounce for the pound.

CHF

There have been no major reports released from Switzerland yesterday but SNB Chairman Jordan’s speech was enough to trigger a bounce for USD/CHF. Only the Swiss PPI is up for release today and although it is projected to show a 0.2% uptick, it might not have a strong impact on franc trading.

JPY

The yen was able to pack in gains against the Australian dollar yesterday but was unable to repeat the same performance against other currencies. Data on Japanese consumer confidence is up for release today and a strong figure might trigger a Nikkei rally, which could boost yen pairs up.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Australian dollar sank to new lows to the dollar and lost a lot of ground to the Japanese yen, as the employment report renewed hopes of an RBA rate cut. There are no reports due from the comdoll economies today as their price action might be dependent on risk sentiment.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (January 20, 2014)

USD

The US dollar lost a bit of ground on Friday, thanks to weaker than expected consumer sentiment data. The preliminary figure reported by University of Michigan came in at 80.4 instead of the estimate at 83.4. Building permits and housing starts came in line with expectations around 0.99M. Up ahead, there are no major reports due from the US since traders are on holiday. Bear in mind though that the lower liquidity could result to higher volatility.

EUR

The euro slid lower to the dollar and yen at the start of the week, as fundamentals in the euro zone appeared weaker. German PPI and German Buba monthly report are up for release today but these aren’t expected to have a huge impact on euro price action. Keep watch for any changes in market sentiment and a potential surge in volatility during the US session though.

GBP

The pound was unable to recover on Friday but got a quick boost early this week, as the Rightmove HPI showed a 1.0% increase. This was enough to erase half of the 1.9% decline seen in the previous month. There are no other major reports due from the UK today, leaving pound pairs sensitive to risk sentiment.

CHF

The franc lost further ground to the dollar last week and seems poised to keep losing this Monday, after SNB head Jordan reiterated that there’s no need to remove the EUR/CHF peg. There are no reports lined up from Switzerland today.

JPY

The yen continued to move to the tune of risk sentiment last week, gaining ground against the Australian dollar and other weak majors. Japan’s revised industrial production report is due today but no changes are expected from the initially reported 0.1% uptick. Keep tabs on the behavior of the Nikkei if you’re trading yen pairs.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls showed signs of weakness towards the end of the week, as traders started pricing in bleak expectations for China’s GDP release. However, the Asian giant reported growth in line with consensus at 7.7%. This is slightly weaker than the 7.8% GDP figure in the previous quarter. No other reports are due from the comdoll economies today, as China’s GDP release could weigh on overall risk sentiment.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (January 21, 2014)

USD

The US dollar lost ground to its major counterparts when prices retraced and risk sentiment improved. There have been no reports released from the US yesterday since traders were on holiday and there are no reports due today. This suggests that market sentiment might be the major driving force of price action in the meantime.

EUR

The euro edged lower than its counterparts in yesterday’s trading, as German PPI came in weaker than expected. The report showed a 0.1% uptick instead of the estimated 0.2% increase in price levels. Talk of deflation has been rampant, particularly in periphery countries, so traders were surprised to find out that the region’s largest economy might also be in for weaker inflationary pressures in the near term. For today, German ZEW economic sentiment is up for release and it could show an improvement from 62.0 to 63.4. Meanwhile, the euro zone ZEW is expected to rise from 68.3 to 70.2.

GBP

The pound was stuck in consolidation to the dollar yesterday, as GBP/USD moved sideways around the 1.6450 minor psychological level. There have been no major reports released from the UK then and only the medium-tier CBI industrial order expectations data is due today. The report could show a dip from 12 to 10, which might lead to a quick pound selloff.

CHF

The franc gave back some of its recent gains to the dollar, as there were no reports released from Switzerland yesterday. There are still no reports due today so it could be all about risk sentiment driving franc price action.

JPY

The Japanese yen packed in significant gains but returned some of these in today’s Asian trading session. Data from Japan has been weaker than expected yesterday, reporting a 0.1% decline in the revised industrial production report instead of the initially printed 0.1% uptick. There are no reports due from Japan so the yen pairs’ movement might be dictated by market sentiment.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls regained a bit of ground against the dollar in recent trading, with USD/CAD holding on to the 1.0950 handle and NZD/USD bouncing up to the .8300 area. New Zealand’s quarterly CPI report was better than expected at 0.1% for Q4 2013 instead of the estimated flat reading. This was enough to spark rate hike speculations in the RBNZ’s upcoming monetary policy statement. Later on, Canada will release its wholesale sales report and manufacturing sales. Both reports could show a 0.3% uptick but the odds of a downside surprise are high and might trigger further losses for the Loonie.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (January 22, 2014)

USD

The US dollar barely budged against most of its major counterparts in recent trading, save for the Australian dollar and Canadian dollar. There have been no reports released from the US economy yesterday and there are still no reports lined up for today, which suggests that the Greenback could be sensitive to market sentiment and currency-specific data.

EUR

The euro formed a reversal pattern against the US dollar, indicating that the recent selloff might be over soon. Data from the euro zone came in mixed yesterday, with the German ZEW economic sentiment index coming short of expectations and dropping from 62.0 to 61.7 instead of improving to the estimated 63.4 reading. For the euro zone region though, the ZEW index climbed from 68.3 to 73.3, beating the 70.2 consensus. There are no reports lined up from the euro zone today though.

GBP

The pound retreated to the dollar in yesterday’s trading, as the CBI industrial order expectations came in very weak. Analysts were expecting a small dip from 12 to 10, but the index slipped all the way down to -2. Up ahead, we have the claimant count change release and the minutes of the latest BOE monetary policy meeting. Given the trend in jobs data recently, the UK might be in for weak figures. The figure is expected to show a 33.8K drop in unemployment while the minutes could show a unanimous decision in keeping policy unchanged. However, weaker than expected jobs data and a dovish BOE minutes might result to a pound selloff.

CHF

The franc continued to edge lower in yesterday’s trading as there were no economic reports to give the Swiss currency support. Today though, the Swiss ZEW economic expectations index is due and it could show an improvement from the 39.4 previous reading. If that’s the case, USD/CHF might retreat from its recent rallies.

JPY

The yen had a mixed performance in yesterday’s trading as it simply reacted to its counterparts’ data. For today though, the BOJ is set to make its monetary policy decision and possibly express its willingness to ease further if the sales tax hike hurts overall economic growth. If that happens, the yen might be in for more losses as the Nikkei index could close higher in anticipation of further easing.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Canadian dollar broke to the upside from its consolidation to the dollar, as Canadian data came in mixed. Although manufacturing sales beat expectations with a 1.0% increase, wholesale sales stayed flat instead of rising by 0.3%. Up ahead, we have the BOC rate decision and despite the recent round of weak data, Poloz has indicated that they are not ready to cut rates just yet. As for Australia, inflation data came in stronger than expected and boosted the Aussie, along with the slight improvement in Westpac consumer sentiment data.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (January 23, 2014)

USD

The US dollar had a mixed performance in yesterday’s trading, as it consolidated to the euro, lost ground to the pound, then strengthened against the comdolls. There were no reports released from the US economy recently, which explains why the Greenback is simply reacting to currency-specific events. For today, US existing home sales and jobless claims data are up for release and these might not have such a pronounced impact on dollar movement.

EUR

The euro moved sideways to the dollar in yesterday’s trading since there were no major reports released from the euro zone. With euro pairs mostly in consolidation, traders are probably waiting for today’s set of data before taking any huge bets. French and German manufacturing and services PMI figures are up for release today and small improvements are expected. Stronger than expected figures might trigger an upside break for EUR/USD or EUR/JPY while weak data could lead to a euro selloff.

GBP

The pound strengthened against its major currency rivals in yesterday’s trading, thanks to the strong improvement in the jobless rate. Although the claimant count change came in weaker than expected at -24.0K versus the estimate at -33.8K and the previous figure was revised to show a lower decline in joblessness, the unemployment rate improved from 7.4% to 7.1%. This is just one point closer to the BOE’s 7% target rate, wherein they would start to consider hiking rates. Meanwhile, the BOE minutes revealed that the vote to keep interest rates and asset purchases unchanged was unanimous.

CHF

The franc barely budged from its current levels against the dollar when the Swiss ZEW economic expectations report printed a decline. The figure dropped from 39.4 to 36.4, reflecting lower confidence in the economy. There are no reports due from Switzerland today so USD/CHF might stay stuck in consolidation, unless US reports print surprises.

JPY

The yen lost ground to the Aussie and the pound but was able to flex its muscles against the Loonie. The BOJ decided to keep their monetary policy unchanged for the meantime but reiterated that they’re ready to ease further if the sales tax hike hurts overall economic growth. There are no major reports lined up from Japan today so it could be all about market sentiment driving yen pairs.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie gave up a lot of ground to its major counterparts in recent trading, thanks to the dovish rhetoric of the BOC. Poloz spoke of a possible rate cut, as inflation remains weak and the Loonie remains strong. He pointed out that the appreciating Loonie is hurting the country’s exports. As for the Aussie and Kiwi, these comdolls simply resumed their weakness to the dollar as risk appetite waned. The Chinese HSBC PMI is up for release today and might have a huge impact on their movement.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (January 24, 2014)

USD

The US dollar lost its shine in yesterday’s trading since economic data printed mostly disappointing results. The flash manufacturing PMI slipped from 54.4 to 53.7 instead of improving to the estimated 55.2 reading. Existing home sales came in at 4.87M instead of the consensus at 4.94M while the previous month’s reading was revised down. The only report that came in better than expected was the initial jobless claims data, which showed a 326K reading instead of the estimated 331K figure. There are no reports lined up from the US economy today.

EUR

The euro continued to rally against its major counterparts in the London and US sessions, as the euro zone PMIs came in stronger than expected. French manufacturing and services PMIs both beat expectations and showed slower contraction in the industries while German PMIs reflected stronger expansion. Overall, the region’s manufacturing and services PMIs also beat expectations and reflected industry expansion. Euro zone consumer confidence also came in better than expected and improved from -14 to -12. Only the Italian retail sales and Belgian NBB business climate data are up for release today.

GBP

The pound continued its rallying ways in yesterday’s trading, despite weaker than expected CBI realized sales. The reading fell from 34 to 14, lower than the estimate at 28, reflecting lower sales volume. BBA mortgage approvals are up for release today and a good reading might push the pound higher up the charts.

CHF

The franc regained ground against the US dollar and the euro in yesterday’s trading although there were no reports released from Switzerland. Their calendar is still empty for today, which suggests that franc movement might continue to depend on risk sentiment.

JPY

The yen was a big winner in yesterday’s trading, as the Japanese currency took advantage of the surge in risk aversion. There have been no major reports released from Japan yesterday and none are due today, which means that yen pairs could keep reacting to market sentiment.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Australian dollar gave up ground again in yesterday’s trading, as China’s HSBC manufacturing PMI fell back in the contractionary zone. The reading dipped from 50.5 to 49.6 instead of improving to 50.6 while the CB leading index posted a weak increase of 0.4% compared to the previous reading. Over in Canada, the retail sales report printed upside surprises for both core and headline figures. Canadian core and headline CPI are up for release today and these might have a huge impact on Loonie movement since the BOC has spoken of weak inflation.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (January 27, 2014)

USD

The US dollar packed in the gains against the British pound and Australian dollar on Friday, as these currencies were hit hardest after the Davos World Economic Forum. The economic leaders affirmed the strength in the US economy, also adding to support for the US dollar. US new home sales data is up for release today and the report could show a dip from 464K to 457K.

EUR

The euro consolidated against most of its major counterparts in recent trading, as economic leaders discussed the possibility of deflation in the euro zone region. Draghi mentioned that the ECB will keep interest rates low for an extended period but haven’t discussed the possibility of aggressive asset purchases just yet. Eurogroup meetings are going on today and there are no major reports lined up from the euro zone, except for the German Ifo business climate figure.

GBP

The pound lost a lot of ground to its counterparts on Friday when BOE Governor Carney said that they will have to revise their forward guidance strategy. Previously the BOE said that it would consider hiking rates once the jobless rate falls below 7.0% but Carney reiterated that reaching the threshold doesn’t guarantee an immediate rate hike. There are no reports due from the UK today.

CHF

The franc gained ground against the dollar on Friday, despite the lack of data from Switzerland. There are still no reports due from Switzerland today so it could be all about risk sentiment driving franc price action for the upcoming trading sessions.

JPY

The yen continued its winning ways against the other major currencies on Friday as risk aversion took control of the markets. In addition, economic leaders in Davos confirmed that Japan is starting to recover and that inflation is picking up. There are no reports lined up from Japan today, as the yen might keep taking advantage of the risk-off market environment.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Australian dollar continued to lose ground on Friday as risk aversion set in. There have been no major reports released from Australia then and none are due today. There are also no reports due from Canada and New Zealand, which suggests that risk sentiment might keep driving their currencies for now.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (January 28, 2014)

USD

The US dollar lost a bit of ground to its major counterparts, most notably the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen, as data from the economy came in weaker than expected. New home sales showed a 414K figure instead of the estimated 457K reading while the previous month’s report was revised down. Headline and core durable goods orders are up for release today, along with the CB consumer confidence report. The latter could show an improvement from 78.1 to 78.3 but durable goods orders are projected to be slightly weaker compared to the previous month’s readings.

EUR

The euro continued to move sideways against the US dollar and the Japanese yen, thanks to the lack of data from the euro zone yesterday. Only the German Ifo business climate report was released and this showed a stronger than expected 110.6 reading, up from the previous 109.5 figure. German import prices are up for release today and the report might show a 0.3% uptick.

GBP

The pound bounced back to life in yesterday’s trading, as traders booked profits ahead of today’s GDP release. There have been no major reports released from the UK yesterday. The GDP report might show 0.7% growth, slightly lower compared to the previous 0.8% GDP figure. However, a weaker than expected reading might trigger a sharp selloff for the pound, as it would confirm the BOE’s bias that growth is not that strong even if the jobless rate is moving closer to their target.

CHF

The franc held on to its wins to the dollar in yesterday’s trading even though there were no reports released from Switzerland. There are still no reports lined up from Switzerland today so USD/CHF might keep moving to the tune of US data.

JPY

The yen took a pause from its recent rallies, except against the US dollar. Risk sentiment seemed to improve yesterday, forcing most traders to book profits off nearby support levels for the yen pairs. There are no reports due from Japan today so the Nikkei’s performance could dictate where yen pairs are headed.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Australian dollar recovered against the Greenback, as data from Australia printed improvements. NAB business confidence improved and showed better business conditions while the CB leading index showed a 0.2% uptick. No other reports are due from the comdoll economies for today so risk sentiment might drive price action for these pairs.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (January 29, 2014)

USD

The US dollar fought back against its major currency counterparts in recent trading, taking EUR/USD down to the 1.3650 area and USD/JPY up to the 103.00 mark. Data from the US was weaker than expected, with the headline durable goods orders report showing a 4.3% decline and the core durable goods orders printing a 1.6% drop. This was weak compared to the estimated 1.9% and 0.7% uptick respectively. For today, the big event is the FOMC statement, as traders are waiting to see if the Fed will still push through with its taper despite the weak December NFP data.

EUR

The euro edged a bit lower than its counterparts when German import prices printed a flat reading. This revived talks of potential deflation in the euro zone, as traders became concerned that the largest economy might also be in danger. German GfK consumer climate is up for release today and the index might show an improvement from 7.6 to 7.8. Also due today is data on euro zone private loans and money supply.

GBP

The pound showed a bit of weakness yesterday when the U.K. GDP simply came in line with expectations of 0.7% growth. This is slightly slower compared to the previous quarter’s 0.8% GDP reading. BOE Governor Carney is set to testify today and if he issues another round of downbeat comments regarding monetary policy and the jobless rate, the pound might be in for more losses.

CHF

The franc lost some ground to the dollar in yesterday’s trading, as the USD/CHF pair found support around the .8950 minor psychological level and climbed back to the .9000 mark. There have been no reports released from the Swiss economy yesterday while today has the UBS consumption indicator on tap. The index came in at 1.43 in the previous month and a higher reading might be positive for the franc.

JPY

The yen gave up some of its recent gains to its counterparts when risk sentiment improved in recent trading. However, the Nikkei index chalked up a 0.17% decline for the day, indicating that market sentiment isn’t so good in the Asian markets. There have been no major reports released from Japan yesterday and none are due today, which suggests that risk sentiment might keep driving price action.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls made a small recovery to the dollar in yesterday’s trading, but most were unable to hold on to their gains. There have been no major reports released from Australia, Canada, or New Zealand recently as the comdolls simply moved to the tune of risk sentiment. Later on, the RBNZ will make its interest rate decision and traders are expecting to hear how the central bank plans to address inflation in the country.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (January 30, 2014)

USD

The US dollar regained ground after the FOMC decided to proceed with its cautious taper and reduce monthly bond purchases by $10 billion, as announced in their December monetary policy statement. Bernanke also reiterated that the Fed plans to keep interest rates unchanged until the jobless rate stays below 6.5% and inflation reaches the 2% target. US advanced GDP is up for release today and it is expected to print a 3.3% reading.

EUR

The euro gave up some of its recent gains to the dollar when the FOMC statement rolled along. The German GfK consumer climate index actually came in better than expected with a 8.2 reading versus expectations of a small improvement from 7.7 to 7.8. Up ahead, German employment change and Spanis flash GDP data are up for release, which means there might be additional volatility for the euro today.

GBP

The pound was stuck mostly in consolidation to the dollar since there were no major reports released from the UK yesterday. BOE Governor Carney didn’t stir a ruckus in the markets with his speech, as he simply repeated most of its remarks from before. Data on the UK’s net lending to individuals and mortgage approvals are up for release today.

CHF

The franc bounced back to the dollar in recent trading, as the Swiss UBS consumption indicator jumped to 1.80. The bad news though was the previous month’s figure suffered a downward revision from 1.43 to 1.40. The Swiss KOF economic barometer is up for release today and analysts are expecting to see a rise from 1.95 to 2.02, which might allow the franc to extend its gains.

JPY

The yen continued to take advantage of risk aversion in recent trading, packing on gains against the pound and the Australian dollar. Earlier today, Japanese retail sales printed disappointing results, with consumer spending up by an annualized 2.6% versus the estimated 3.9% growth. This was also lower compared to the previous 4.1% increase. No other reports are due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Australian dollar carried on with its losing ways to the dollar and the yen, despite a quick bounce yesterday. Data from China showed a contraction in the manufacturing sector, as the HSBC final manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.5. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates unchanged, triggering a quick selloff for the Kiwi. No other reports are due from the comdoll economies for the rest of the day.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (January 31, 2014)

USD

The US dollar lost some ground against some of its major counterparts in recent trading, as data from the US economy turned out weaker than expected. The advanced GDP reading came in at 3.2% versus the estimated 3.3% growth figure while initial jobless claims posted a higher than expected 348K increase. The pending home sales report was a huge disappointment with its 8.7% decline instead of the mere 0.1% expected downtick. Medium-tier reports such as core PCE price index, personal income and spending, and Chicago PMI are due from the US today.

EUR

The euro finally gave way from consolidation in yesterday’s trading as risk aversion took over the markets. Data from the euro zone was actually mixed, with German preliminary CPI coming in weak and jobs data coming in strong. The preliminary CPI showed a 0.6% decline instead of the estimated 0.4% dip while the unemployment change came in at -28K, better than the projected -5K figure. German retail sales, French consumer spending, and the region’s CPI figures are up for release today.

GBP

The pound lost further ground in recent trading, despite better than expected net lending to individuals data. The report showed a 2.3 billion GBP figure, higher than the projected 1.9 billion GBP reading. However, M4 money supply and mortgage approvals were slightly weaker than expected. Earlier today, the UK GfK consumer confidence figure printed a rise from -13 to -7, better than the consensus at -12. No other reports are due from the UK today.

CHF

The franc was unable to bounce back to the dollar in yesterday’s trading as the Swiss KOF economic barometer came in a bit below consensus. The figure rose from 1.95 to 1.98 but was short of the estimate at 2.02. There are no reports due from Switzerland today so the franc might simply react to US data.

JPY

The yen gained on risk aversion yesterday but gave back most of its gains earlier today when Japan released a mixed set of economic data. The national core CPI was stronger than expected at 1.3% while the Tokyo core CPI came in as expected at 0.7%. Household spending was weaker than expected but the jobless rate showed an improvement from 4.0% to 3.7%. Housing starts is still set for release later on today but it appears that the yen is losing ground because of the improvement in sentiment.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls put up a good fight against the dollar in yesterday’s trading, as AUD/USD bounced back to .8800 while NZD/USD held on to the .8150 handle. Data from Australia was mostly weaker than expected while China also showed signs of slowing down. Earlier today, Australia’s PPI came in at 0.2%, weaker than the estimated 0.7% increase. Canadian monthly GDP is up for release today and a 0.2% growth figure is expected.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (February 3, 2014)

USD

The US dollar had a mixed performance on Friday, as it gained ground against some currencies but lost against the rest. Data from the US came in mostly in line with expectations, as Chicago PMI climbed from 59.1 to 59.6 while the revised UoM consumer sentiment figure stood at 81.2. The quarterly employment cost index came in stronger than expected at 0.5% while personal spending showed a better than expected 0.4% uptick. The major report due today is the ISM manufacturing PMI, which is expected to dip from 57.0 to 56.2.

EUR

The euro lost further ground to the dollar on Friday, as risk aversion stayed in the markets. Euro zone data was mixed, with Germany showing a weaker than expected retail sales figure and France printing a better than expected consumer spending report. The CPI flash estimate fell short of consensus and posted a 0.7% uptick while the jobless rate improved to 12.0%. Spanish and Italian manufacturing PMIs are due today and these might not have such a material impact on euro price action.

GBP

The pound caved to the dollar on Friday since there were no major reports from the United Kingdom to give it support. Today, the UK is set to print its manufacturing PMI figure, which could dip from 57.3 to 57.1. A stronger than expected reading might be enough to give the pound a boost against its counterparts though.

CHF

The franc gave up its recent gains to the dollar on Friday, as USD/CHF bounced up from the .9000 major psychological level. There were no major reports released from Switzerland then, leaving the franc at the mercy of risk sentiment. Today, the SVME PMI is up for release and it might show a climb from 53.9 to 55.1, which could allow the Swissy to regain ground.

JPY

The yen continued to take advantage of the risk-off market environment, as it packed gains against the euro and the Australian dollar. Data from Japan was mixed on Friday and there are no reports lined up for today. If you’re trading the yen pairs, better take a look at the performance of Asian equities and the Nikkei to gauge market sentiment.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls surprisingly managed to hold their ground against the dollar on Friday, as the Aussie and Loonie rebounded. Australian data was actually weaker than expected so the bounce could be chalked up to profit-taking ahead of the Chinese New Year festivities. Meanwhile, Canada printed a 0.2% monthly gain in GDP, which allowed the Loonie to stay afloat. Earlier today, Australia reported a weaker than expected building approvals figure and a 0.3% decline in job advertisements. Medium-tier inflation reports are set for release from Canada in the US session.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (February 4, 2014)

USD

The US dollar gave up a lot of ground to its major currency counterparts in yesterday’s New York trading session, when the ISM manufacturing PMI came up short of expectations. The actual figure slipped from 57.0 to 51.3, worse than the expected decline to 56.2. Only the factory orders report is set for release from the US economy today and this might not have such a huge impact on dollar price action.

EUR

The euro had a chance to rebound against the US dollar in yesterday’s trading, taking advantage of the weakness in US data. Data from the euro zone was mixed, as the Spanish manufacturing PMI printed a stronger expansion while the Italian manufacturing PMI missed the mark. Only the Spanish unemployment change report is up for release from the euro zone today and it might show a 21.3K drop in joblessness.

GBP

The pound was a big loser in yesterday’s trading when the UK manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations. The actual figure fell from 57.2 to 56.7 instead of just dipping to the consensus at 57.1. It’s the construction sector’s turn to print the PMI today and another miss might pave the way for a deeper pound selloff.

CHF

The franc made a decent recovery to the dollar in yesterday’s trading as the SVME PMI came in stronger than expected while the previous month’s reading was revised higher. The actual figure climbed from an upgraded 55.0 reading to 56.1, surpassing the consensus at 55.1. There are no reports lined up from Switzerland today so market sentiment might drive price action.

JPY

The yen managed to hold on to some of its recent gains and go for more as risk aversion stayed in the markets and traders lost appetite for the US dollar. The Nikkei closed with nearly a 2% loss for the day, pushing yen pairs lower. There were no major reports released from Japan recently and none are due today, which suggests that risk sentiment could keep directing yen pairs.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls tried to hold on to their recent wins to the dollar and make the most of the weak data from the US. AUD/USD rebounded up to the .8800 area prior to today’s RBA interest rate decision but sold off a few hours leading up to the event. Low-tier inflation reports from Canada came in mixed, allowing USD/CAD to stay around its current levels. Also up ahead is the New Zealand quarterly jobs release, which might show a 0.6% gain in hiring and an improvement in the jobless rate from 6.2% to 6.0%.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (February 5, 2014)

USD

The US dollar slid a bit lower to its major currency rivals in recent trading, as risk appetite somewhat improved. Data from the US was better than expected, with factory orders dropping by only 1.5% instead of the estimated 1.9% decline. No other reports have been released from the US yesterday while today has the ISM non-manufacturing PMI. Based on the manufacturing component of the report, another disappointment might be in the cards but analysts are still hopeful that it will improve from 53.0 to 53.6.

EUR

The euro edged slightly higher to the dollar in yesterday’s trading sessions, supported by an improvement in sentiment. Data from the euro zone was actually weaker than expected, as Spain reported a higher than expected rise in joblessness. Unemployment rose by 113.1K in euro zone’s third largest economy while medium-tier inflation reports also missed expectations. Services PMI from Spain and Italy are up for release today, along with the region-wide figures. Both economies could post improvements, which might help keep the euro afloat.

GBP

The pound took a break from its recent selloff to its major currency counterparts, as the UK construction PMI printed better than expected results. The actual figure climbed from 62.1 to 64.6, outpacing the consensus at 61.6. The services sector will release its PMI today and possibly show a rise from 58.8 to 59.1, but a weaker than expected reading might result to another pound selloff.

CHF

The Swiss franc consolidated to the dollar in recent trading, thanks to the lack of major reports from Switzerland. There are still no major reports lined up for today so the USD/CHF pair might keep reacting to risk sentiment.

JPY

The yen took advantage of the drop in the Nikkei and the selloff in the Asian session to rally against its currency counterparts. There were no reports released from Japan recently, and only the average cash earnings report was released today. It showed a 0.8% uptick, better than the estimated 0.7% increase while the previous month’s figure was revised up to 0.6%. This might result to a recovery in risk sentiment for today, which might be negative for the yen.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls had a nice rebound to the dollar in recent trading, as the Australian dollar benefitted from the relatively upbeat RBA rate statement while the New Zealand dollar drew support from a stronger than expected rise in employment. Quarterly hiring increased by 1.1% while the jobless rate dropped from 6.2% to 6.0%, pushing NZD/USD back above the .8200 mark. There were no reports released from Canada recently and none are due today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way