Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (April 2, 2014)

USD

The US dollar regained ground against its counterparts, as the ISM manufacturing PMI showed an improvement from 53.2 to 53.7. However, this was still short of the estimate at 54.2. Despite that, analysts took this as a sign that the upcoming NFP release could print promising results and reinforce Yellen’s view that the labor sector is recovering. The ADP non-farm employment change report due today should paint a clearer picture of the jobs market and the figure is slated to show a 192K reading, higher than the previous 139K. A stronger than expected report could reinforce dollar strength as traders position ahead of Friday’s NFP release.

EUR

The euro managed to hold steady to the dollar and post minimal losses as traders sit tight for the upcoming ECB rate decision tomorrow. German unemployment change came in better than expected and showed a 12K increase in hiring while Spanish and Italian manufacturing PMI came in line with expectations. Spanish unemployment change data is up for release today and a strong figure could keep the euro supported.

GBP

The pound gave up some of its recent gains to the dollar when the manufacturing PMI came in weaker than expected. The previous month’s reading was revised down to 56.2 while the latest release showed a decline to 55.3 instead of an improvement to 56.7. The construction PMI is up for release today and an improvement from 62.6 to 63.1 is eyed, but this might not have such a huge impact on pound movement since traders are more sensitive to the services PMI which is up for release tomorrow.

CHF

The franc was able to advance against the dollar in recent trading even though Switzerland’s SVME PMI slipped from 57.6 to 54.4, reflecting weaker expansion in the manufacturing industry. There are no reports due from Switzerland today so USD/CHF movement might depend on US data and risk sentiment.

JPY

The yen gave up a lot of ground to its major counterparts as traders priced in potential BOJ easing to compensate for the drag on the economy caused by the sales tax hike implemented this month. There are no reports due from Japan today so expect the yen to keep showing signs of weakness on the sales tax increase.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Kiwi sold off significantly in today’s Asian trading session when a reversal candlestick formed on the .8700 handle to the dollar and caused traders to book profits. The Aussie also saw some weakness as Australian building approvals showed a 5.0% slide. Meanwhile the Loonie was able to make small gains thanks to strong medium-tier inflation data. No other reports are due from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (April 3, 2014)

USD

The US dollar had a pretty good run yesterday, as the ADP non-farm employment change figure came in line with expectations. The actual figure showed a 191K increase in payrolls, leading traders to price in a good NFP release for Friday. The previous month’s figure also enjoyed an upward revision, which spells good prospects for the US labor market. The factory orders reported printed a stronger than expected 1.6% increase versus the estimated 1.3% gain. US initial jobless claims and ISM non-manufacturing PMI are up for release today.

EUR

The euro lost ground to the dollar in recent trading, as the US economy printed strong data. The shared currency lost ground to its other counterparts as well, despite better than expected Spanish jobs data. This was because euro zone final GDP was revised down from 0.3% to 0.2%, indicating that growth in the region was weaker than initially reported. The ECB rate decision is scheduled today and this should show whether the central bank is ready to ease further or not.

GBP

The pound saw another round of weakness yesterday when the construction PMI came in weaker than expected. The figure dipped from 62.6 to 62.5 instead of improving to 63.1, but the selloff was not so bad since traders are still waiting for the services PMI to be released today. The figure is expected to hold steady at 58.2 but another weak reading might lead to a deeper pound selloff. Earlier today BOE Governor Carney was quoted saying that a rate hike might take place before the general elections, leading to pound strength.


CHF

The franc gave up most of its recent gains to its counterparts as there were no reports from Switzerland to give it support yesterday. There are still no reports due from Switzerland today which suggests that franc pairs could be more sensitive to currency-specific data.

JPY

The yen recovered a bit against most of its counterparts as some traders booked profits off key resistance levels. There have been no reports released from Japan yesterday and none are due today, suggesting that yen pairs might be sensitive to risk sentiment for the rest of the week.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were no match to the dollar in recent trading, as AUD and NZD extended their losses. Data from Australia was mixed today, as the retail sales release came in weak but the trade balance report showed a stronger than expected surplus. Canadian trade balance is due in today’s US trading session and the previous 0.2 billion CAD deficit is expected to turn into a 0.2 billion CAD surplus.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (April 4, 2014)

USD

The US dollar managed to end the day higher than most of its major counterparts despite a round of weak economic data. The trade balance release showed a wider deficit, indicating weakness in trade, while the initial jobless claims showed a higher than expected reading. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI did show an improvement but it failed to meet the consensus. For today, the NFP release could set the tone for dollar movement for the longer run, as it would confirm whether the Fed was correct or not with its assessment of the US labor market. Analysts expect to see a reading of around 200K, which would be enough to bring the jobless rate down to 6.6%.

EUR

The euro was in for a lot of volatility yesterday, particularly when Draghi gave his press conference. The ECB decided to keep interest rates unchanged for the meantime as expected, but Draghi shared that he is concerned about economic stagnation. In his forward guidance, he disclosed that the ECB discussed further easing options like negative rates or large-scale bond purchases. German factory orders are due today and a mere 0.5% uptick is eyed, lower compared to the previous 1.2% gain. Another weaker than expected report from euro zone’s largest economy might push for a deeper euro decline.

GBP

The pound returned some of its recent gains yesterday when the services PMI fell short of expectations. The actual reading slipped from 58.2 to 57.6 reflecting a slower expansion in the industry and this led to a pound decline because services comprises a huge chunk of the UK economy’s activity. Only the Halifax HPI is due from the UK today and this might not move the pound around so much. A 0.7% increase in HPI is expected to follow the previous month’s 2.4% gain.

CHF

The franc gave up a lot of ground to the dollar and the rest of its forex counterparts in yesterday’s trading despite the lack of data from Switzerland. Perhaps the franc was following the euro’s moves and the shared currency was weighed down by dovish remarks from the ECB. There are no reports lined up from Switzerland today.

JPY

The yen was still on a weak footing against most of its currency rivals but its losses were subdued yesterday. There have been no major reports released from Japan and none are due today, but it appears that Asian traders are showing some support for the safe-haven currency as tension is sparking between South Korea and North Korea again.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls had a shaky trading day, as NZD and AUD tried to hold on to their recent levels. Canadian trade balance came in line with consensus, as the deficit of 0.3 billion CAD turned into a surplus. Canada is set to print its jobs data today and might show a 21.5K gain in hiring, enough to erase the 7K jobs lost in the previous month. However, this release might be overshadowed by the NFP event.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[ddeeen]

Do the source of the news is responsible??
it makes me wonder that the west always manipulate this news to interrupt the global economic financial and safe their own currency. World have to know this..

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (April 7, 2014)

USD

The US dollar retreated to most of its major counterparts on Friday when the non-farm payrolls report churned out weaker than expected results. Although the February figure was revised higher, the March reading came in below the consensus of a 200K increase. The jobless rate also held steady at 6.7% instead of improving to the estimated 6.6% figure. This confirms Yellen’s remark that the labor sector is still very weak and that it could continue to rely on Fed stimulus in the near term. There are no major reports lined up from the US economy today so traders might continue to trade on the post-NFP sentiment.

EUR

The euro showed more signs of weakness on Friday and it still ended weaker to the dollar in spite of bleak NFP figures. German factory orders came in line with consensus and showed a 0.6% uptick while euro zone retail PMI showed an improvement from 48.5 to 49.2. Perhaps traders are starting to price in more easing from the ECB, based on the latest remarks from the ECB rate statement. German industrial production and Sentix investor confidence are up for release today.

GBP

The pound gave up some gains to the dollar on Friday, despite the initial bounce of GBP/USD after the NFP release. UK Halifax HPI came in below expectations and showed a 1.1% decline instead of the estimated 0.7% uptick. There are no reports due from the UK today but traders might start pricing in upbeat remarks or more talks of rate hikes on the upcoming BOE rate decision later on this week.

CHF

The franc lost ground to all of its major counterparts on Friday as there were no reports to provide support for the Swiss currency. Data on foreign currency reserves is up for release from Switzerland today and this should show how much the SNB is spending to keep the franc’s value low. Also due today is Swiss CPI and a 0.2% uptick in price levels is expected.

JPY

The yen continued to weaken against most of its major counterparts, except for the much weaker euro, as traders anticipated dovish BOJ remarks or even further easing to make up for the slack caused by the sales tax hike this month. There were no reports released from Japan last Friday but the Japanese currency also managed to chalk up some gains to the dollar, thanks to the weak NFP. Japanese leading indicators is due today and this might not have such a large impact on price action ahead of Tuesday’s BOJ statement.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls strengthened against the dollar and the yen on Friday, as risk appetite picked up and traders took advantage of the weak NFP and downbeat outlook for Japan. Canadian jobs data turned out stronger than expected, as the employment change figure showed a 42.9K reading instead of the estimated 21.5K figure while the jobless rate fell from 7.0% to 6.9%. However, Canada’s Ivey PMI missed the mark and slipped from 57.2 to 55.2 instead of improving to 58.3. Only the BOC business outlook survey and New Zealand NZIER business confidence index are due from the comdolls today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (April 8, 2014)

USD

The US dollar drew no support from traders in recent trading sessions, as there were no major reports released from the US economy and price action was still governed by the latest NFP disappointment. JOLTS job openings data is due today, along with speeches by a couple of FOMC voting members. Dovish remarks could push the dollar lower against its forex counterparts while hawkish comments could allow for a rebound.

EUR

The euro recovered to the dollar in recent trading, thanks to euro zone data coming in line with expectations. The German industrial production report showed a 0.4% uptick, slightly higher than the estimated 0.3% increase, while the euro zone Sentix investor confidence report showed a reading of 14.1 as expected. Only medium-tier reports are due from the euro zone today so a bit of consolidation might take place for euro pairs.

GBP

The pound rebounded slightly against the Greenback despite the lack of major data from the UK economy yesterday. Manufacturing production data is up for release today and it might show a 0.3% increase, lower compared to the previous month’s 0.4% uptick. A stronger than expected reading might lead to a bigger bounce for the pound while a weak figure could put it back in selloff mode.

CHF

The franc raked in the gains in recent trading as Swiss reports came in better than expected. The foreign currency reserves increased from 433.6 billion CHF to 437.9 billion CHF while Swiss CPI showed a 0.4% increase in price levels versus the estimated 0.3% uptick. Swiss retail sales and unemployment rate are up for release today and consumer spending could pick up by 0.9% while the jobless rate could hold steady at 3.2%.

JPY

The yen consolidated to most of its major counterparts in recent trading as traders await the release of the BOJ monetary policy decision. Dovish remarks or actual easing is expected, as the recent sales tax hike is expected to weigh on overall economic performance. Earlier today, the current account balance came in line with expectations and showed a narrower deficit of 0.04 trillion JPY.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls extended their wins yesterday, as dollar weakness stayed in the entire forex market. Data from New Zealand came in line with expectations, as the NZIER business confidence index stayed at 52. Australia is set to print its NAB business confidence figure today and possibly show an improvement that might boost the Aussie. Canadian housing starts and building permits are due, and another round of strong data might boost the Loonie.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (April 9, 2014)

USD

The US dollar was still no match to its major currency counterparts as it lost a lot of ground to the franc, Kiwi, pound, and Japanese yen. USD/JPY tumbled to the 101.50 minor psychological support and bottom of the rising channel, indicating a possible bounce. There have been no major reports released from the US yesterday, with only the stronger than expected JOLTS job openings figure reported. However, this wasn’t enough to support the Greenback as traders closed most of their dollar longs ahead of the release of the FOMC meeting minutes today. Downbeat remarks from policymakers could push the dollar lower to its counterparts.

EUR

The euro made a decent rebound to the dollar in recent trading but edged lower to the Japanese yen. Only medium-tier data such as the French trade balance were released from the euro zone, as the bounce was mostly a result of a pick-up in risk appetite. German trade balance is up for release today and it isn’t expected to make a huge impact on euro movement.

GBP

The pound resumed its climb to the dollar in recent trading when the UK economy reported a stronger than expected manufacturing production figure. The report showed a 1.0% increase versus the estimated 0.3% uptick but the previous month’s figure was revised lower. Only the UK trade balance is up for release today and it might not derail the pound’s gains if it comes in as expected at a narrower deficit of 9.3 billion GBP.

CHF

The franc advanced to the dollar and most of its major counterparts lately when Switzerland printed a stronger than expected retail sales figure. The report showed a 1.0% gain versus the estimated 0.9% uptick but the previous figure was revised down to -0.1%. There are no major reports due from Switzerland today so dollar direction might dictate whether USD/CHF can keep dropping or not.

JPY

The yen gained against most of its major counterparts on the heels of a hawkish BOJ statement yesterday. Many were expecting to hear dovish remarks or hints of easing, but Kuroda said that the sales tax hike isn’t negatively affecting economic performance so far. He did mention that the central bank could add stimulus if necessary but he said that the economy is still on track to meet the 2% annual CPI target by the end of the year.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls recovered to most of its major counterparts in yesterday’s trading, with the exception of the strong yen. Australian NAB business confidence slipped from 7 to 4 while New Zealand NZIER business confidence held steady at 52. Canadian housing starts and building permits both came in weaker than expected. Data on Australian home loans and Westpac consumer sentiment are up for release today and strong figures might allow the Aussie to extend its gains. No other major reports are due from the comdoll economies.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (April 10, 2014)

USD

The US dollar lost a lot of ground to its counterparts when the FOMC meeting minutes revealed that not all Fed officials agree with Yellen’s forecast of a rate hike around six months after asset purchases end. Some policymakers stressed the need to tighten gradually so as to not hurt inflation. This shows that Yellen’s rate hike time frame was merely a personal opinion and not necessarily a consensus among FOMC members. This might keep the dollar weak in the near term, as traders reduce or close their long dollar positions. Only the initial jobless claims report is up for release from the US economy today and this might not have such a huge impact on dollar movement.

EUR

The euro was able to rally against the dollar despite more remarks from ECB officials hinting at negative deposit rates. Data from the euro zone was actually weaker than expected as Germany printed a smaller than expected trade surplus of 15.7 billion EUR versus the estimated 18.0 billion EUR. French industrial production and CPI, along with Italian industrial production data, are up for release today but the euro might continue to take advantage of dollar weakness if these reports come in as expected.

GBP

The pound was one of the bigger winners in recent trading, as GBP/USD surged to a new monthly high after the FOMC release. The pair is on track to break past the previous highs around 1.6824 as traders price in positive expectations for today’s BOE interest rate decision. Recall that Carney spoke of hiking rates before the UK general elections next year so traders are expecting a round of hawkish remarks. UK trade balance and RICS house price balance came in stronger than expected.

CHF

The franc extended its winning streak to the dollar, despite the lack of data from Switzerland yesterday. There are still no reports due from the country today but the franc might continue its winning streak to the dollar on the heels of the FOMC meeting minutes.

JPY

The yen lost some ground to its major counterparts but struggled to hold steady to the dollar in recent trading. Risk sentiment still favored the higher-yielding currencies as the prospect of a delayed Fed rate hike could provide support for other global economies. Japan’s core machinery orders were weaker than expected with a decline of 8.8% versus the estimated 3.2% drop. No other reports are due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls took advantage of dollar weakness, with AUD/USD moving closer to the .9400 major psychological level and NZD/USD surging above .8700. Australian home loans showed a stronger than expected 2.3% increase while inflation expectations improved from 2.1% to 2.4%. Up next is the Australian jobs release which might show a weaker gain in hiring compared to the previous month’s 47.3K jump. Chinese trade balance is also due today and might impact Aussie movement.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (April 11, 2014)

USD

The US dollar caught a small break from its selloff on Thursday’s trading, as the lack of top-tier data prevented traders from pushing in a clear direction. Initial jobless claims came in stronger than expected at 300K versus the estimated 314K figure while import prices posted a better than expected 0.6% increase. For today, the US core and headline PPI are up for release along with the preliminary UoM consumer sentiment figure for March. Stronger than expected figures could help the Greenback hold on to its latest gains while another set of weak data could put it back in selloff mode.

EUR

The euro was able to advance against the US dollar in recent trading but it gave up ground to the Japanese yen. Data from the euro zone was actually weaker than expected, with bleak French and Italian industrial production figures. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today so traders might be keen to book profits off their euro longs.

GBP

The pound retreated to the dollar and the yen in recent trading when the BOE decided to keep monetary policy unchanged for the meantime. Carney didn’t get a chance to give his usual hawkish remarks as there was no press conference scheduled after the rate statement, which means that traders will have to wait for the release of the BOE meeting minutes to see if the rest of the MPC members agree with Carney’s forecast of hiking rates before the UK general elections in May next year. UK CB leading index is due today but this might not have a huge impact on pound movement.

CHF

The franc extended its rally to the dollar, despite the lack of top-tier data from Switzerland. Traders are just taking advantage of dollar weakness and the franc is a viable option when pursuing risk-off market moves. There are still no reports due from Switzerland today as USD/CHF approaches a key support area around .8600 to .8700.

JPY

The yen continued to gain ground against the dollar and the rest of its forex counterparts when the BOJ meeting minutes revealed that the central bank isn’t considering additional easing moves for now. No other major reports are due from Japan for the rest of the week so the yen might be able to hold on to its recent wins.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls continued to rally despite the quick pullbacks that occurred later on. The Australian dollar got a strong boost from better than expected employment data but returned some of its gains when China printed a bleak CPI reading of 2.4% for March. Data on Chinese new loans and money supply is due in the next few hours and might still have a say on Aussie price action. No other reports are lined up from the comdoll economies today as their currency price movement might depend on risk sentiment and US reports.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (April 21, 2014)

USD

Trading among dollar pairs has been relatively subdued in the past days, as traders were off on a holiday. Most markets are still closed today so expect further consolidation from major currency pairs. There are no economic reports due from the US but traders are watching bond yields very closely to figure out the long-term direction for the Greenback. Risk sentiment could also play a key role in determining price action in today’s sessions.

EUR

The euro traded mostly sideways for the past week, thanks to the lack of major catalyst from the euro zone and other major economies. There are still no reports lined up from the euro zone today, although the shared currency is enjoying a bit of support against its currency rivals.

GBP

The pound jumped to a 4-year high against the dollar in the previous week, lifted by strong UK jobs data. However, the rally failed to carry on as most traders booked profits at key resistance levels. This week’s set of reports should determine whether pound pairs can extend their gains or not, but today’s schedule is empty so a bit of consolidation might be seen.

CHF

The franc let go of another batch of gains in recent trading, as there were no reports from Switzerland to give the franc a boost. There are still no reports due today since markets are closed and most traders are off on a holiday so expect some sideways movement for franc pairs unless there’s a significant change in risk sentiment.

JPY

The yen managed to hold on to its current levels in the past week, despite dovish remarks regarding the Japanese economy. Analysts are foreseeing more economic weakness in light of the latest sales tax hike, but the BOJ has been unfazed so far. There are no reports due from Japan today as major markets are closed.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls showed a bit of weakness in the recent trading days, although the Loonie did get a boost from strong CPI readings. Weak export prospects for New Zealand, particularly in the dairy sector, weighed on the Kiwi. There are no reports due from these economies today as most financial markets are closed and traders are off on a holiday.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (April 22, 2014)

USD

Volatility is expected to pick up in today’s trading sessions, after the snoozer on Monday’s trading. Financial markets are reopening today and traders will return to their desks, leading to some movement among major pairs. US existing home sales and Richmond manufacturing index are on the docket today, with home sales expected to be lower and the manufacturing index likely to show an improvement.

EUR

The euro was ahead of the pack in terms of establishing direction for the week, as EUR/USD started breaking lower in yesterday’s New York trading session. Perhaps traders are starting to price in the prospect of additional easing from the ECB or expectations of bleak PMI data today. Germany and France are set to release their manufacturing and services PMI figures and possibly show small upticks, but weaker than expected figures could push the euro lower.

GBP

The pound continued to consolidate around the 1.6800 area to the dollar, waiting for a convincing market catalyst for a break higher or lower. There are no major reports due from the UK today so pound pairs might keep consolidating until the BOE meeting minutes are released later on this week.

CHF

The franc resumed its selloff to the dollar yesterday but managed to score gains against the euro. There have been no reports released from Switzerland recently and none are due today, which suggests further consolidation or currency-specific reactions from franc pairs.

JPY

Yen pairs saw a bit of action in recent trading as a news report indicated that the Japanese government is considering loosening lending restrictions in the country. The government is mulling about lowering the rate ceiling on loans in order to give small businesses better access to funding, possibly as an effort to compensate for the drag caused by the sales tax hike this month. Trade balance came in weaker than expected over the weekend, lending to yen weakness.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls regained ground in recent trading, particularly the Aussie which drew support from a 0.3% uptick in its February leading index. Canadian wholesale sales are due in today’s New York trading session and a 0.7% increase is eyed. Later on, New Zealand will release data on visitor arrivals and probably show another strong increase.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (April 23, 2014)

USD

The US dollar lost a bit of ground to some of its major counterparts in recent trading as risk sentiment improved in the markets. However, liquidity was still low and there were barely any big moves among dollar pairs. Data from the US was stronger than expected, as the existing home sales report showed a 4.59M reading, higher than the estimated 4.57M figure. The Richmond manufacturing index was also better than expected, as it jumped from -7 to 7 instead of landing at 0. For today, US new home sales and flash manufacturing PMI are up for release but the reaction may be overshadowed by other major economic events lined up.

EUR

The euro managed to edge slightly higher in recent trading despite the lack of major data from the euro zone. Consumer confidence in the region held steady at -9, reflecting pessimism. For today, German and French manufacturing and services PMIs are up for release. Small improvements are expected but if the actual figures disappoint, the euro might wind up returning most of its recent gains.

GBP

The pound continued to test its recent highs around the 1.6800 levels, as traders await the release of the BOE meeting minutes. Many are hopeful that the UK central bank policymakers will be more hawkish with their economic assessment and outlook, supporting Carney’s claim that the BOE could hike rates before the general elections next year. On the other hand, dovish comments might undermine pound strength.

CHF

The franc lost further ground to the dollar yesterday, with USD/CHF forming a reversal pattern on its long-term time frames. There have been no reports released from Switzerland lately and none are due today, which suggests that the franc could simply act as a counter currency to currency-specific events.

JPY

There was barely any action among the yen pairs in recent trading since there were no reports released from Japan. There are still no major reports lined up from the Asian economy today so yen pairs might be extra sensitive to risk sentiment.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Australian dollar was sold off early in today’s Asian trading session since the quarterly CPI figure came in weaker than expected at 0.6% versus the estimated 0.8%. This goes to show that the rising value of the Aussie could be hampering inflation. Canada is set to print its retail sales data in today’s New York session and possibly show a 0.5% increase in headline sales and a 0.6% rise in core retail sales. Afterwards, the RBNZ is set to announce its monetary policy decision and possibly keep rates unchanged in the meantime.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (April 24, 2014)

USD

Despite weaker than expected US economic data, the US dollar managed to score gains against most of its major currency counterparts. The flash manufacturing PMI for April fell from 55.5 to 55.4 while new home sales printed a bleak 387K figure instead of the projected 455K. US durable goods and unemployment claims data are up for release today and this might not have such a huge impact on dollar movement, as risk sentiment is the key driver of price action so far.

EUR

The euro sold off sharply when euro zone PMI data came in mixed. France reported lower than expected manufacturing and services PMI readings while Germany’s manufacturing PMI came in line with consensus. Its services PMI was stronger than expected, allowing the euro region’s services PMI to also beat the forecast. German Ifo business climate data is up for release and downtick from 110.7 to 110.5 is expected. Also due today is ECB President Draghi’s speech, which usually causes a lot of movement among euro pairs.

GBP

The pound gave up some of its recent gains when the BOE meeting minutes were not as hawkish as many expected. The minutes showed a unanimous vote when it comes to keeping monetary policy unchanged, with some policymakers highlighting the economic slack in the UK. Public sector borrowing data came in stronger than expected with a positive revision in the previous month’s figure. CBI realized sales is due today but this doesn’t usually have a large effect on pound movement.

CHF

The franc caved to dollar strength, as there were no reports from Switzerland to give it a boost. Swiss trade balance is up for release today and it might show a smaller trade surplus of 2.31B CHF from 2.62B CHF. Weaker than expected data could keep the franc in selloff mode to the dollar while strong figures could pave the way for a bounce.

JPY

The yen had a pretty volatile trading day as it started off strong but ended on a weak note, particularly to the US dollar. There were no major reports released from Japan then as risk sentiment changes were responsible for most of the yen’s changing direction. There are no major reports lined up for today so more risk trading might be seen.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie lost a lot of ground in recent trading because of the bleak Australian CPI while the Loonie was unable to take advantage of the improvement in consumer spending, as retail sales figures simply came in line with expectations. Meanwhile, the Kiwi got a strong boost in today’s Asian trading session when the RBNZ decided to hike rates and express a hawkish bias. The central bank said that inflationary pressures could remain strong in the next couple of years, which led many to believe that another rate hike could be possible. Australian and New Zealand banks are on holiday today in observance of Anzac Day.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (April 25, 2014)

USD

The US economy released mixed economic reports in yesterday’s New York trading session, printing stronger than expected durable goods orders figures while showing a weak initial jobless claims reading. Headline durable goods orders increased by 2.6% versus the estimated 2.1% growth and core durable goods orders chalked up a 2.0% gain versus the projected 0.6% uptick. Meanwhile initial jobless claims came in at 329K, higher than the consensus at 309K. Revised UoM consumer sentiment data is lined up for today and an upward revision from 82.6 to 83.2 is eyed.

EUR

The euro consolidated to the dollar in recent trading although it did see some rallies during the release of strong German data. The Ifo business climate reading rose from 110.7 to 111.2, outpacing the consensus at 110.5. Volatility picked up when Draghi took center stage and pointed out that monetary policy might be influenced by the euro’s exchange rate movement, which led some to believe that the ECB is more inclined to ease if the euro keeps climbing. No major reports lined up for today from the euro zone.

GBP

Data from the UK came in stronger than expected as the CBI realized sales index jumped from 13 to 30, higher than the forecast at 18. However, this wasn’t enough to push the pound in a clear direction since traders were still digesting the outcome of the BOE monetary policy meeting. The minutes revealed mixed views on economic performance and showed that many were concerned about weak inflation. UK retail sales are due today and a 0.4% decline is projected to follow the previous 1.7% increase.

CHF

Data from Switzerland was much weaker than expected yesterday, as the trade balance fell short of the expected 2.31 billion CHF surplus at 2.05 billion CHF. The previous month’s figure was also revised lower, indicating weaker export performance for the country. There are no reports due from Switzerland today but SNB head Thomas Jordan will make a testimony that might rock the franc’s movement before the end of the trading week.

JPY

Japan printed weaker than expected inflation reports in today’s Asian trading session but this still marks increased price pressures, which was taken positively by the yen. All industries activity data is up for release today and a 0.5% decline is expected. No other reports are lined up from Japan for the rest of the day.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls retreated from their recent climb as risk aversion took hold of the markets yesterday. The Kiwi was unable to sustain its rallies despite the RBNZ rate hike while the Aussie retreated as Australian traders were off on a holiday. There were no reports from Canada then and none are due today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (April 28, 2014)

USD

Dollar pairs were mostly in consolidation last Friday, as data from the US economy came in mixed. The UoM consumer sentiment figure for April was revised higher to reflect more optimism in the economy while the flash services PMI for the same month fell short of expectations and showed a slower expansion in the sector. Only the pending home sales report is due today and a 1.0% rebound is eyed to follow the previous 0.8% decline.

EUR

The euro edged slightly higher to the dollar on Friday but opened weaker this week. There were no reports released from the euro zone then but the risk-off environment spurred the worsening tension in Russia and Ukraine led to a poor showing for the higher-yielders. German import prices data is due today but this might not have such a huge impact on euro movement.

GBP

The pound was unable to sustain its rallies past the 1.6800 major psychological level as traders booked profits off the key resistance area. UK retail sales were stronger than expected at 0.1% versus the estimated 0.4% decline but the previous month’s reading was revised lower to 1.3%. Mortgage approvals were also lower than expected, according to the BBA. No reports are due from the UK today.

CHF

The franc gave in to dollar strength last Friday as risk aversion took hold of the markets ahead of the weekend. SNB Thomas Jordan also reiterated their pledge to maintain the franc peg in his speech last week, lending more weakness to the currency. There are no reports lined up from Switzerland today.

JPY

The yen got a bit of a boost from the stronger than expected rise in retail sales. The figure showed a 11.0% annualized increase, stronger than the estimated 10.9% growth and the previous 3.6% rise. This eased fears of further easing from the BOJ this week, as many thought that the recently implemented sales tax hike could hurt spending.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were unable to extend their gains in Friday’s trading as traders eased off their riskier holdings. There were no reports released from Australia, New Zealand and Canada then. Only the New Zealand trade balance report is lined up for today and it might print a higher surplus of 919 million NZD versus the previous 818 million NZD.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (April 29, 2014)

USD

The US dollar was still stuck in consolidation to most of its major forex counterparts, as traders are awaiting the release of the top-tier data later on this week. US pending home sales were stronger than expected as it showed a 3.4% increase versus the estimated 1.0% growth. US CB consumer confidence data is up for release today and it might show an improvement from 82.3 to 82.9, enough to keep the dollar supported throughout the trading day.

EUR

The euro moved sideways against the dollar in yesterday’s trading but encountered a bit of weakness when German import prices came in weaker than expected and showed a 0.6% decline, worse than the estimated 0.1% dip. German preliminary CPI is up for release today and another weaker than expected result might increase fears of deflation in the euro region and trigger euro weakness.

GBP

The pound edged slightly higher in recent trading despite the lack of major data from the UK economy. UK preliminary GDP data is up for release today and a 0.9% growth figure is eyed, stronger than the previous 0.7% rise. A higher than expected GDP reading might be enough to push GBP/USD past the previous highs around 1.6825.

CHF

The franc failed to establish a clear direction at the start of the week since there were no major reports lined up from Switzerland. Their schedule is still empty for today, which suggests that USD/CHF movement could hinge on dollar demand and that EUR/CHF action could be dependent on German data.

JPY

Japanese banks are on holiday today, which suggests that the yen might see the same amount of weakness from yesterday. Retail sales posted stronger than expected data over the weekend but the Nikkei ended lower for the day as risk aversion weighed on yen pairs.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls sank in recent trading, thanks to the run in risk aversion due to the conflict in Ukraine and Russia. New Zealand trade balance came in line with expectations at 920 million NZD but the previous month’s figure was revised lower, pushing NZD/USD down. There are no reports lined up from the comdoll economies today, except perhaps the speech by BOC Governor Poloz in the US session.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (April 30, 2014)

USD

The US dollar saw a bit more volatility in recent trading as it edged lower to the Canadian dollar but rebounded to the Japanese yen. Data from the US was weaker than expected, as the CB consumer confidence figure failed to meet expectations and landed at 82.3. This could all change today though with the preliminary GDP, ADP non-farm employment change figure, and FOMC monetary policy statement all on the docket. The GDP figure could show 1.2% growth for the first quarter of the year, much weaker compared to the downgraded 2.6% reading for the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the FOMC statement is likely to be a little more cautious compared to the previous one, with no rate hike forecasts likely to be announced.

EUR

The euro showed signs of weakness to its major counterparts as the euro zone printed a set of bleak figures. German preliminary CPI showed a 0.2% decline instead of the estimated 0.1% dip while Spanish joblessness surged to 25.9%. Private loans, M3 money supply, and Italian retail sales also disappointed. German and French retail sales data are due today, along with the euro zone’s preliminary CPI estimate. Spanish flash GDP and German unemployment change are also on tap. Weak figures could push the euro much lower to its forex counterparts.

GBP

The pound also bowed down in recent trading when the preliminary GDP reading fell short of expectations. The figure showed 0.8% growth instead of the estimated 0.9% reading. GfK consumer confidence did show an improvement from -5 to -3, but it still reflects pessimism. There are no major reports lined up from the UK economy today.

CHF

The franc fell to the dollar but gained against the euro in recent trading, as the lack of Swiss data kept the currency virtually directionless. Swiss UBS consumption indicator and KOF economic barometer are both on tap today, with both reports likely to show some form of improvement. In this case, the franc might be able to erase some of its recent losses to the dollar and possibly advance further against the euro.

JPY

The yen lost ground to most of its major counterparts as traders started pricing in dovish remarks from today’s BOJ rate statement. Data from Japan was mostly weak, as the official manufacturing PMI showed contractionary conditions while the preliminary industrial production reading fell short of expectations. The BOJ is not likely to change monetary policy this month but they could insist that they are open to easing if needed. GDP and inflation forecasts are also due today and downgrades could lead to yen weakness.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie and Kiwi showed weakness in recent trading but the Canadian dollar got a boost from a rise in oil prices. Meanwhile, ANZ business confidence in New Zealand slipped from 67.3 to 64.8, reflecting lower optimism. Canadian monthly GDP is due later today, along with a speech by BOC Governor Poloz. A 0.2% growth figure is eyed, weaker compared to the previous 0.5% GDP increase.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 1, 2014)

USD

The US dollar had a topsy turvy trading day as data and events showed mixed results. The advanced GDP reading for the first quarter of 2014 turned out to be a disappointment as the economy clocked in a mere 0.1% growth figure, down from the previous 2.6% GDP reading. However, the FOMC statement turned things around as the committee voted unanimously to taper asset purchases. Their economic assessment and outlook was relatively upbeat this time, leading many to believe that easing could end in December this year. Initial jobless claims and ISM manufacturing PMI are up for release today but the bigger mover could be Yellen’s speech during the US session.

EUR

The euro managed to survive against the dollar in recent trading as CPI data wasn’t as bad as expected. Aside from that, German jobs data showed strong results as hiring increased by 25K versus the 10K estimate. Spain logged in a 0.4% GDP figure, just in line with market expectations. There are no reports due from the euro zone today as banks are closed on Labor Day.

GBP

The pound extended its rallies to its major counterparts in recent trading, as GBP/USD climbed to the 1.6900 mark. There were no reports released from the UK then and only the Nationwide HPI and manufacturing PMI data are the reports to watch out for today. Manufacturing PMI is expected to dip from 55.4 to 55.3, but a stronger than expected reading could push GBP/USD much higher.

CHF

The franc made a bit of recovery to the dollar in yesterday’s trading as the UBS consumption indicator climbed from 1.52 to 1.84, indicating a pick up in spending. There are no reports due from Switzerland today as banks are also closed on a Labor Day holiday.

JPY

The yen advanced against the dollar but stayed stuck in consolidation to most of its major counterparts, as risk sentiment remained stable in recent trading and the BOJ refrained from making any changes in monetary policy. There are no reports lined up from Japan in today’s Asian session but do watch out for the release of the jobless rate and household spending data in the next Asian session.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie and Kiwi recovered in recent trading while the Loonie was stuck in consolidation to the dollar. There were no major reports released from these economies recently, although Canada reported a 0.2% monthly GDP growth in line with expectations. Underlying inflation reports from Canada were weaker than expected, preventing the Loonie from taking part in the risk rallies. There are no major reports lined up from Australia, New Zealand, or Canada today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 2, 2014)

USD

The US dollar failed to draw support from upbeat data in recent trading. US ISM manufacturing PMI posted a stronger than expected expansion in the industry, as the index surged from 53.7 to 54.9, outpacing the consensus at 54.3. Personal spending and income also showed stronger than expected results, while the core CPI price index showed a 0.2% uptick. Initial jobless claims, on the other hand, came up short of expectations. For today, the non-farm payrolls release might be the biggest mover in dollar price action and the economy is expected to show a 216K gain in employment.

EUR

The euro remained steady to the dollar in recent trading, unable to sustain its rally past the 1.3875 mark. Euro zone banks were on a Labor Day holiday, which explains why the shared currency was unable to draw additional support. Spanish and Italian manufacturing PMI are due today, along with the euro zone jobless rate. Stronger figures could keep the currency supported throughout the day but EUR/USD’s longer-term direction could depend on the NFP result.

GBP

The pound continued to edge higher against most of its counterparts, reaching a new 4.5-year high to the dollar. UK manufacturing PMI was much stronger than expected at 57.3, up from an upwardly revised 55.4. This indicates a rebound in the industry, which could be enough to result to a higher than expected Q2 2014 GDP reading later on and push the BOE to tighten. UK construction PMI is up for release today and another strong result could lead to more pound gains.

CHF

The franc consolidated for the most part of yesterday’s trading since Swiss banks were on a Labor Day holiday. There were no reports released from Switzerland then as USD/CHF movement hinged on US data. Swiss SVME PMI is due today and a rebound to 55.1 from 54.4 is expected, which might provide support for the franc.

JPY

The yen lost ground to major counterparts in recent trading as risk appetite picked up. The Nikkei logged in a 1.27% gain for the day as a news report revealed that the government is coming up with a timeframe for corporate tax cuts. This could compensate for the potential slack that could be caused by the sales tax hike. Data from Japan was stronger than expected, with household spending rising by 7.2% and unemployment holding steady at 3.6%.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls showed signs of weakness in recent trading as gains in commodity price levels appeared to be subdued. Earlier today, Australia printed a stronger than expected PPI increase for the quarter while New Zealand showed a 4.0% decline in ANZ commodity prices. No other reports are due from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 5, 2014)

USD

The US dollar had a volatile day on Friday when the non-farm payrolls report came in stronger than expected. The economy added 288K jobs in April, higher than the estimated 216K gain. The previous month’s figure was also revised to show a stronger pace of hiring for March, enough to bring the jobless rate down to 6.3%. However, components of the report revealed that the decline was mostly spurred by a dropping participation rate, suggesting that there’s still significant slack in the jobs market. Wage growth stagnated for the month of April as well. US ISM non-manufacturing PMI is due today and the index could hold steady at 54.2.

EUR

The euro moved back and forth to the dollar on Friday but failed to make significant headway in either direction. Data from the euro zone was mixed, with the jobless rate and Italian manufacturing PMI beating expectations while the Spanish manufacturing PMI fell short. Euro zone Sentix investor confidence data and EU economic forecasts are on the docket today.

GBP

The pound suffered a quick selloff to the dollar but staged a strong rebound in an instant, after the NFP results were published. UK construction PMI was weaker than expected at 60.8 versus the estimated 62.2 reading. For today, UK banks are on holiday in observance of May Day so pound pairs might be in for a bit of consolidation with no data points up for release as well.

CHF

The franc regained ground on Friday as Swiss SVME PMI printed stronger than expected results. The index jumped from 54.4 to 55.8, outpacing the consensus at 55.1. This reflects a stronger expansion in the manufacturing industry, which could lead to better growth prospects. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.

JPY

The yen tossed and turned to the dollar on Friday but started this week on a strong note, despite Japanese traders being off on a holiday. There are no reports due from Japan today and tomorrow, but it appears that positioning from institutional traders is affecting yen movement in the meantime.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls lost a bit of ground to the dollar on Friday but capped off the week with a decent recovery. NZD/USD is moving closer to the .8700 major psychological resistance while AUD/USD found support around .9200. USD/CAD, on the other hand, remains stuck in consolidation. Earlier today, Australia reported a 3.5% decline in building approvals, along with a downward revision in the previous month’s figure. China’s HSBC final manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 48.1 from 48.3, leading to more selling pressure for the Aussie. No other reports are due from the comdoll economies for the rest of the day.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way