Daily Technical Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets Group]

EUR/USD strong support within 1.1050 zone

The EUR/USD spiked straight from our POC after the analysis on Session Recap webinar. After initial spike the pair dropped after stronger than expected NFP data. Next POC zone is 1.1120-40 (38.2, WPP, H3, Inner trend line) but also pay attention to current rejection from 23.6 and EMA 89. Dark cloud that is formed on H4 could directly tank the price (without a pullback to POC) towards 1.1050-35. Only below 1.1035 the pair should test 1.0980 the confluence of L4 camarilla and rising trend line.

 

[Admiral Markets Group]

EUR/CHF bullish but close to historical sellers

The EUR/CHF is in a strong uptrend but it is getting close to historical sellers. As we can see on the chart, the inner trend line has been broken and the pair is currently slightly above H3 - in no man's land. There are 2 scenarios. If the pair gets to historical sellers we could see sellers taking over the pair. POC2 (H4, quad-top, historical sellers) 1.0925-1.0935 is the zone for short entries towards 1.0890. Conversely, 1.0890-1.0900 POC ( inner trend line, L4, EMA89, DPP) is the zone where we might expect bounce towards 1.0930 zone. Pay attention to movement as the range is small and the pair is in the middle of nowhere at this point.

 

[Admiral Markets Group]

USD/CAD Dead cat bounce

The USD/CAD has been dropping after a strong marubozu candle (highlighted in purple) breakout to the upside. At this point it is looking like a dead cat bounce. For all who are wondering what a dead cat bounce is there is an old adage saying that even a dead cat will bounce if it is dropped from high enough. In Forex if the strong rally is faded then we might assume a dead cat bounce. We can see that USD/CAD pair has countered a strong marubozu candle even stronger than its breakout and we can assume that the downtrend is in progress. POC (50.0, trend line, H3, EMA89) comes within 1.3075-95 zone and the price should face sellers if it gets there. If we see a deeper pullback next POC zone where now moment sellers are is POC2 (61.8,H4) 1.3120-30, and rejection should be valid. In both cases a sustained selling will get the pair down to 1.3020 followed by 1.2990. Only the breakout below 1.2990 will aim for 1.2920.

 

[Admiral Markets Group]

GBP/JPY is targeting sub 130.00 zones

The dragon - GBP/JPY currency pair is in a strong downtrend. The uncertainty of the GBP due to upcoming Brexit, with the already sensitive Yen due to stimulus in Japan and bullish trends in Equities, just add to the overall volatility of the GBP/JPY pair. Currently the GBP/JPY is close to L3 Weekly PP so we might see some bounce before next leg of selling. Traders should pay attention to 131.80-132.00 zone. (H3, WPP) for short trade setups. Additionally we have another confluence coming within 132.35-60 zone (23.6, H4 WPP, historical sellers, inner trend line). Both zones should provide short trading opportunities towards 130.00. If we see break of 130.00 than 129.80 is the next target followed by 128.72 where we should see a bounce.

 

[Admiral Markets Group]

GBP/USD double top in progress

The GBP/USD has broken through resistance on the winds of Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern (green rectangle). POC comes within 1.3165-80 and we could see rejection towards 1.3102 and if it breaks then 1.3020 is next. POC (double top, 61.8, bearish order block) should reject the price but if we see a 4h close above 1.3180 then 1.3238 is next. Pay attention to POC and levels as the price either rejects or breaks through POC.

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[Admiral Markets Group]

NZD/USD Potential bearish M shaping up

The NZD/USD aka "Kiwi" has been in a range mode but as we can see on the daily mini chart the pair has been rejecting from daily resistance. The pair could possibly make an M 1 2 3 reversal pattern if it rejects from POC 0.7250-70 (WPP, X cross™, EMA89). The target will be 0.7200. If 0.7200 breaks M will be confirmed targeting 0.7164 and 0.7115 if we see the breakout of 0.7164. So at this point we are focused on a possible rejection from POC.

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[Admiral Markets Group]

GBP/USD is ready to take off

The GBP/USD aka the cable, is currently set for a possible reversal towards 1.3370 and 1.3456. We have an important POC. The price is currently 1.3328 but we could easily see the rejection towards 1.3370. POC1 (23.6, double trend line, mini rounded bottom) is 1.3287-1.3315 and anywhere in this zone the price might reject. If the price breaks 1.3370 with a strong 1h momentum or we see a 4h close above 1.3370, 1.3456 should be next. Buy the dips seem to be valid now as MACD slope is also positive on higher time frames.

1.3200 needs to hold in order for the price to remain bullish.

 

[Admiral Markets Group]

USD/CAD hidden bullish divergence at L5 pivot

The USD/CAD has broken through 1.2900 as predicted on a previous Session Recap webinar straight to the target. At this point we can see a hidden bullish divergence at L5 camarilla pivot point that could give us a retracement for next short opportunity. There are 2 scenarios. First scenario is trend move. If the price proceeds to POC 1.2925-40 (bearish order block, L3,divergence trend line), it could reverse to 1.2820 and 1.2764. POC is also protected by 38.2 and EMA89 just above it. Second scenario is H1 momentum or 4h close below L5 weekly camarilla - 1.2815. In that case traders should look for 1.2764 target.

 

[Admiral Markets Group]

GBP/JPY hidden divergence could empower bulls

The dragon, GBP/JPY pair made a strong move to the upside from 132.00 zone. After hitting 138.35 it dropped and currently its at POC zone 135.22-50 (double bottom, lower price harami, divergence trend line, L3, 61.8). The price could spike from the zone towards 136.10 and further 136.70. Only above 136.75 we could see another retest of 138.00.However, divergence could fail if the price dropped below 134.75 and in that case way to 133.95 would be open. So at this point traders should focus on possible spike from POC zone.

 

[Admiral Markets Group]

GBP/USD Rooftop pattern in progress

The GBP/USD is dropping from 1.3450 zone on a strong rooftop pattern momentum. The pattern is huge and sell into rallies could be the option now provided that bearish momentum on higher time frames is intact. POC (61.8, EMA89, inner trend line) 1.3285-1.3300 should reject the price towards 1.3235. If 1.3235 breaks next is 1.3208. 4 hour close below should tank the pair towards 1.3152. If you take a look at daily chart you can see a dark cloud cover lurking at resistance where a giant rooftop pattern is on H1 timeframe. It hints for additional confluence for short trades.

 

[Admiral Markets Group]

EUR/USD Continuation is possible

The EUR/USD has rejected from POC as show in yesterday's Session Recap webinar and today we might have a continuation caused by weaker than expected [URL deleted] German ZEW economic sentiment result. 1.1235-45 zone could provide a continuation from yesterday's drop off 1.1270 zone as long as 1.1280 stays strong. LVZ - Low volatility zone has shown within POC that is consolidating at EMA 89 and we could also see a potential M pattern. Targets for the down move are 1.1200 and 1.1175. Additionally we can see a pinbar on daily chart cueing for a further bearish continuation.

 

[Admiral Markets Group]

USD/JPY another higher low is printed out

The USD/JPY aka "ninja" has been printing out higher highs and higher lows on intra day charts. If 101.75 holds we might see another push towards 102.70 and 103.05 as we can see a T89 on H4 chart. POC comes withing 102.05-102.18 (trend line/steep trend line, L3, X-Cross ™,historical buyers). Although I am not a fan of steep trend lines, this one follows the price and it is making an X-Cross ™ with other confluence factors. New rejection could use a fresh momentum from a new higher low towards fresh daily highs. However if 101.75 fails we could see a dip towards 101.30.

 

[Admiral Markets Group]

EUR/USD hidden bullish divergence at 88.6 fib

The EUR/USD has dropped to POC zone on 4h time frame which is still showing uptrend. August trend line is making an X cross ™ with H3 camarilla and weekly pivot point suggesting a possible retest. Daily bearish candle could use some retracement to the upside based on a direct drop on Friday. POC zone (88.6, trend line) is supported by hidden bullish divergence so the zone 1.1145-1.1166 could spike the price to the upside targeting 1.1200 and 1.1225. If the divergence fails and the price drops below 1.1115 we could see 1.1080 followed by 1.1050 and 1.1020.
Only if the price breaks 1.1225 the door towards 1.1280 will be open.

 

[Admiral Markets Group]

EUR/USD showing strength due to USD weakness

The EUR/USD is showing strength due to neutral to dovish FED and USD weakness. The USD weakness is even more pronounced as EURGBP is flat and DAX is pushing higher that goes completely in accordance with my previous DAX analysis and US Fed decision market impact. There is a risk-on in the markets because Bond Yields are staying the same.

At this point EUR/USD POC zone is 1.1200-1.1215 (H3,38.2,historical buyers) and a pullback towards the zone could be use for potential long trades. However a clear break and close above red trend line is needed for price to push higher towards 1.1263 that is an X-Cross ™ target confluence. 1.1285 is showing historical sellers so we might see some sell off around this level.

 

[Admiral Markets Group]

NZD/USD Weekly pinbar suggesting bearish pressure

The Kiwi - NZD/USD is riding higher time frame momentum. Piggyback weekly sell is reflecting on lower time frames where we could start searching for short trade opportunities. I see 2 possible scenarios. If the price proceeds below the 0.7220 and if we see 4h close below it, we could see 0.7195 and 0.7150. A pullback to POC (H3, DPP, EMA89, 38.2, inner trend line) 0.7260-75 could spike down the price towards 0.7220 and below. Judging from both weekly and daily trend and momentum, targets could be even lower then L5 is suggesting if the NZD/USD keeps dropping and we will assess it once (and if) the target L5 is reached.

 

[Admiral Markets Group]

GBP/USD supported at 88.6 fib

The GBP/USD is currently rejecting off 88.6 after it dropped straight from POC zone I showed in the live webinar. 88.6 has held the drop making a double bottom and the GBP/USD is rejecting. New POC comes around 1.2970-1.2990 (H3, WPP. 78.6, X-cross) and the rejection might spike it up to 1.3060 where we see a confluence of a steep trend line and previous top. Further advancement targets 1.3090 zone and ONLY above it there is a scope for 1.3170. If the 4h candle closes below 1.2930 then the price might proceed to 1.2865.

 

[Admiral Markets Group]

GBP/JPY Bearish M pattern but bullish price action

The dragon, GBP/JPY shows a huge M pattern on H1 time frame, but there are lack of sellers who could tank the price more to the downside. DAX has been bullish today despite problem with Deutsche Bank (DB). DAX had a massive gap down to start with and DB is down 4 % today. Only EU 13.9BN now of worth with a USD 14BN claim makes DB technically insolvent, and DAX might lose momentum to the upside that could reflect also on GBP/JPY pair that has a very high positive correlation with DAX.
Technically because we have 2 contradicting patterns we ideally want to see breakout. Above 131.45 there is a strong scope for 131.92 and 132.20, but if 131.45 rejects the price we might see 130.90 again. Below 130.90, 130.45 and 130.00 are targets. No man's land in between.

 

[Admiral Markets Group]

GBP/USD could possibly target 1.2796 short term

UK Prime Minister Theresa May said the U.K. would begin the formal process of leaving the European Union by the end of March 2017 and the pound was hit hard. Both technically and fundamentally the pair is aligned now and we might see a retest of 1.2796. At this point bears are in full control.

Bearish channel, inner trend line, 38.2, L3 and multiple rejections at POC 1.2915-30 might reject the price in the case of another retracement and if the pair proceeds below 1.2845 we might see 1.2796. In order to stay bearish short term the GBP/USD must stay below 1.2950.

 

[Admiral Markets Group]

GBP/JPY bearish channel in progress

The GBP/JPY has been contained within a bearish channel and it is bouncing from the support caused mainly by news that DB (Deutsche Bank) is closer to finalizing their claims with US regulator. German equities are up, FTSE is also up but GBP is still down as suggested in my previous GBP study.

Technically POC (H4, the top of the channel, 50.0, historical sellers) comes within 131.20-35 zone but we should also pay attention to H3/EMA89/38.2 strong resistance around 131.00 round number. The rejection is targeting 130.15 and on H1 momentum or H1 close below 130.07, next target is 129.75.

 

[Admiral Markets Group]

EUR/GBP is forming reverse bearish divergence

The EUR/GBP is coming closer to important resistance and the price is forming reverse bearish divergence. As we can see on our daily chart, the price has formed bearish pinbar so it might reject off the zone and start retracement move. The possibility that the price might reject off 0.8855 zone towards H4 and H3 camarilla pivots gets even more pronounced if we see double top( or chart pattern close to double top). However if the price retraces to POC ( EMA89,61.8,bullish order block) within 0.8760-70 zone we might see another trend trading opportunity towards 0.8850 again. Have in mind that divergence is not confirmed until we see a double top-ish price. If it doesnt happen In the case the price proceeds further above the high, 0.8900 could be tested short term.