After holding a vote on its 2013 national budget, the Greek government has passed the bill, one that includes additional cuts touching the most controversial areas of pensions, salaries and benefits. The reaction by the markets has been very subdued, with Euro ticking marginally higher. At present, worries are far greater on the prospects of Greece facing a default scenario this week, something that renowned papers like the Financial Times highlight on its front-cover. Greece should find a way to raise as much as €5bn in order to avoid default in a coupon of debt maturity, with the Troika and European paymasters, including Germany, still stuck in an impasse as to how to ease the country's debt burden, and with authorities still in disagreement over providing Greece the next aid tranche worth over €31.5 billion.
For the short term, the Financial Times reports in a weekend article that "the country’s debt management office has announced plans to cover the full amount through a treasury bill auction on Tuesday, but Greek banks expected to buy the issue can only raise about €3.5bn of collateral acceptable to the ECB, according to two senior Athens bankers" the paper reports. It is thought that in case of a shortfall in the capital raised, Greece will have to tap funds from a reserve for bank recapitalisation held by the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund, worth over €3 billion, as option of last resort-FXstreet.com https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/12112012/
UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-11-12 **:** GMT : European Monetary Union. Eurogrup meeting
2012-11-12 06:00 GMT : Japan. Machine Tool Orders
2012-11-12 21:45 GMT : New Zealand. Food Price Index
FOREX NEWS :
2012-11-12 05:15 GMT : GBP/USD stands at 1.59, above 200 DMA
2012-11-12 05:15 GMT : EUR/GBP waiting for Eurogroup Meeting, flat at 0.8 round
2012-11-12 04:12 GMT : USD/JPY may test 79.70-80.00 - BBH
----------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.27365 LOW 1.27095 BID 1.27289 ASK 1.27294 CHANGE 0.15% TIME 08 : 19 : 31
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Long direction: Fresh cross of moving averages might be a signal of possible correction ahead. Next resistance level is in focus at 1.2740 (R1). Rise above it would then be targeting to 1.2769 (R2) and 1.2797 (R3) in perspective. Short direction: Though, EURUSD might spend most of the day in a narrow range amid limited tier-one data flow. Our downside targets at 1.2679 (S2) and 1.2648 (S3) might expose if the downside extension below the support level at 1.2708 (S1) occur later on today
Resistance Levels: 1.2740, 1.2769, 1.2797
Support Levels: 1.2708, 1.2679, 1.2648
------------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.59124 LOW 1.5891 BID 1.59099 ASK 1.59102 CHANGE 0.11% TIME 08 :19 : 32
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Long direction: The low from 08-11-2012 at 1.5928 (S1) is acting now as key resistance level for upside formation. If the price manages to break it, we expect retracement development with next targets in focus 1.5955 (R2) and 1.5982 (R3). Short direction: Risks of further depreciation is seen below the support at 1.5886 (S1). Break through here might take the pair towards to eventual targets located at 1.5861 (S2) and 1.5836 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.5928, 1.5955, 1.5982
Support Levels: 1.5886, 1.5861, 1.5836
-------------------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 79.563 LOW 79.401 BID 79.480 ASK 79.483 CHANGE 0.02% TIME 08 :19 : 33
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Long direction: Instrument trades in narrow range on the short term perspective. Clearance of next resistance level 79.57 (R1) might determine positive bias for the day and suggest next targets at 79.68 (R2) and 79.79 (R3). Short direction: On the longer term, tendency on USDJPY remains negative and current stabilization might be considered as a part of correction. If the market manage to break next support level at 79.35 (S1), we expect exposure of targets at 79.25 (S2) and 79.15 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 79.57, 79.68, 79.79
Support Levels: 79.35, 79.25, 79.15
U.S. ‘Fiscal Cliff’ likely to rock USD – Goldman Sachs
Looking ahead to December 31, 2012 and January 1, 2013, Goldman Sachs’ Global FX Monthy Analyst, says the upcoming U.S. ‘fiscal cliff’ episode has noteworthy potential to boost USD initially, followed by a sharp USD sell-off. Goldman Sachs explains: “The logic of this price action closely follows the pattern of markets temporarily losing confidence in the ability of polarised policymakers to compromise. During this period it may look as if the ‘fiscal cliff’ is becoming reality and that the economy could face a negative fiscal shock of up to 5% of GDP. The temporary negative response in cyclical assets would likely also trigger a broader USD rally.” Goldman Sachs continues: “After that, when policymakers do find a compromise, possibly helped by the market concerns reflected in cyclical asset weakness, risk sentiment could improve rapidly and the USD would weaken again.”
Busy day ahead for the London session A bunch of data releases will keep traders glued to the wires today. The show starts with French jobs data and current account at 07:45 GMT, followed 15 minutes later by Spanish CPI, Italian CPI at 09:00 GMT, and the highly followed German ZEW at 10:00 GMT, while the ECOFIN meeting, held in Brussels, will take place all day long. Bank of Portugal will also release its Autumn economic bulletin, with CPI figures for Portugal at 10:00 GMT. At 14:30 GMT Greek FinMin Stournaras will speak to EU lawmakers, while EU managing director of the Institute of International Finance Dallara will hold talks with senior government officials and private sector leaders regarding Greece and the Euro Area. In the sovereign debt auctions front, Italy will deliver 12 month bills, with 10 year bond yields standing barely above 5.03%, steady around the 5% figure for last 2 months, while Greece will try to sell 13-weeks T-Bill, as mentioned above.
2012-11-13 **:** GMT : United Kingdom. BOE Inflation Letter
2012-11-13 09:30 GMT : United Kingdom. Consumer Price Index
2012-11-13 10:00 GMT : Germany. ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment
2012-11-13 19:00 GMT : United States. Monthly Budget Statement
2012-11-13 05:52 GMT : GBP/USD weakens ahead of UK CPI
2012-11-13 05:02 GMT : GBP/JPY cracks 126.00 to multi-week lows
2012-11-13 04:05 GMT : AUD/NZD prints inside day pin at 200 EMA
2012-11-13 03:08 GMT : USD/JPY pressured as risk wanes
----------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.27098 LOW 1.26731 BID 1.26854 ASK 1.26859 CHANGE -0.18% TIME 08 : 31: 38
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: We expect busy session ahead. Yesterday low is acting now as key resistance level at 1.2698 (R1). Appreciation above it might enable next targets at 1.2722 (R2) and 1.2746 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Medium term bias remains negative as both moving averages are pointing down. We expect retest of our support at 1.2672 (S1). Easing below it would suggest next targets at 1.2648 (S2) and 1.2624 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.2698, 1.2722, 1.2746
Support Levels: 1.2672, 1.2648, 1.2624
----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.58776 LOW 1.58577 BID 1.58683 ASK 1.58691 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 08 : 31: 39
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Instrument gained momentum on the negative side, though we expect formation of retracement ahead. Progress above the resistance level at 1.5888 (R1) would suggest next targets at 1.5911 (R2) and 1.5933 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Immediate focus comes on our next support level at 1.5856 (S1). Price penetration below it might open way towards to next targets at 1.5834 (S2) and 1.5811(S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5888, 1.5911, 1.5933
Support Levels: 1.5856, 1.5834, 1.5811
----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 79.641 LOW 79.226 BID 79.292 ASK 79.293 CHANGE -0.25% TIME 08:31:40
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Neutral hourly studies point towards further consolidation, with a break required to spark stronger upside action. Our next resistance level is placed at 79.36 (R1). Break above it might open initial targets at 79.44 (R2) and 79.54 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Fresh low offers initial support level at 79.22 (S1), possible pushdown of the price below it would suggest next targets at 79.13 (S2) and 79.05 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 79.36, 79.44, 79.54
Support Levels: 79.22, 79.13, 79.05
Bild story on bundled aid payment for Greece boosts sentiment.
German newspaper Bild Zeitung published an article in which it claims that the Berlin is preparing a 44 billion euro aid payment for Greece, combined from three pending bailout tranches. When asked about the report, German Finance Minister's spokeswoman said that no decision has been taken on the Greek bailout. “Color me skeptical”, writes Mark Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy for BBH. “To give Greece such a large sum at once is counter to the underlying strategy of doling out the aid in tranches to provide assurances of compliance. This is tantamount to unilateral disarmament by the creditors. Second, three euro area members require parliamentary approval, Germany, Finland and the Netherlands. It it unlikely to receive support.” The Bild report boosted sentiment and the Euro rebounded off a two-month low against the greenback.
The Greek Public Debt Management Agency held a bond auction on Tuesday in order to roll over 5 billion euros of debt maturing on November 16. It sold 4.062 billion euros worth of 1-month and 3-month T-bills and the total amount should reach 5 billion if all non-competitive bids are included. 1-month T-bills were sold at an average yield of 3.95%, while 3-month T-bills yielded 4.2%, compared to 4.24% seen in October. The auction was given the green light by the ECB which had to raise the ceiling on the amount of T-bills so that Athens would be able to continue refinancing short-term debt -FXstreet.com https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/14112012/
UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-11-14 09:30 GMT : United Kingdom. ILO Unemployment Rate
2012-11-14 10:30 GMT : United Kingdom. BoE's Governor King Speech
2012-11-14 13:30 GMT : United States. Retail Sales
2012-11-14 19:00 GMT : United States. FOMC Minutes
FOREX NEWS :
2012-11-14 04:03 GMT : Outlook bullish on EUR/USD – Goldman Sachs
2012-11-14 03:19 GMT : AUD/NZD limited below 1.2800, 61.8% Fibo
2012-11-14 02:31 GMT : GBP/JPY back above 126.00; Regional bourses support
2012-11-14 01:08 GMT : AUD/JPY capped below 1H 200 SMA
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.27287 LOW 1.27001 BID 1.27216 ASK 1.27219 CHANGE 0.14% TIME 08 : 03 : 01
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Pair has settled negative bias on the hourly timeframe but recently moved in sideways mode. Above the fresh high at 1.2730 (R1) is possible retracement development. Violation here might expose next targets at 1.2746 (R2) and 1.2763 (R3). Downwards scenario: Loss of next support at 1.2703 (S1) might drive market price towards to the next targets at 1.2684 (S2) and 1.2666 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2730, 1.2746, 1.2763
Support Levels: 1.2703, 1.2684, 1.2666
-------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.58923 LOW 1.58663 BID 1.58917 ASK 1.58920 CHANGE 0.13% TIME 08 : 03 : 02
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD trades in positive tone on the short term perspective. Successful penetration above the resistance at 1.5900 (R1) might provide sufficient space for the price increase towards to our targets at 1.5915 (R2) and 1.5931 (R3). Downwards scenario: Medium term bias remains negative on the hourly chart. If the pair extend its bearish pressure below the next support level at 1.5866 (S1), we suggest next targets at 1.5849 (S2) and 1.5830 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5900, 1.5915, 1.5931
Support Levels: 1.5866, 1.5849, 1.5830
------------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 79.573 LOW 79.385 BID 79.565 ASK 79.566 CHANGE 0.23% TIME 08 : 03 : 02
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: USDJPY gained momentum on the positive side today and determined positive bias for the remaining day. We expect some consolidation ahead, though If the market manages to climb above the resistance level at 79.83 (R1) we suggest next targets at 79.92 (R2) and 80.02 (R3) in potential.Downwards scenario: Yesterday high is acting now as key support level at 79.64 (S1), clearance here is required to attack lower targets at 79.53 (S2) and 79.43 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 79.83, 79.92, 80.02
Support Levels: 79.64, 79.53, 79.43
EU's Rehn: Spain has taken effective action on budget deficits in 2012 and 2013
EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn made a statement on Spain on Wednesday, regarding the country's deficit moves. According to the European Commission's assessment the Spanish government has taken effective action for 2012, 2013 as far as restoring sustainability of public finances is concerned. Nevertheless, it would fail to meet the deficit target for 2014.
Mr Rehn declared that Spain currently does not need additional measures and that the progress of its budget consolidation will be evaluated once again by the EU in February, by which time it might be necessary to introduce further measures. He added that he does not see the need for Rajoy's government making a bailout request in the nearest future. The EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner also acknowledged that Spain is currently undergoing difficult rebalancing of the economy and that its government and people are making great efforts to assure sustainability of the country’s finances. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/15112012/
UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-11-15 09:00 GMT : Italy. Gross Domestic Product(Preliminar)
2012-11-15 09:30 GMT : United Kingdom. Retail Sales
2012-11-15 10:00 GMT : E.M.U. Gross Domestic Product (Preliminar)
2012-11-15 13:30 GMT : United States. Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy
FOREX NEWS :
2012-11-15 04:15 GMT : AUD/USD stalls the dive helped by 1.0350 bids
2012-11-15 04:03 GMT : Short AUD/CAD; target the 1.01 area - Westpac
2012-11-15 03:36 GMT : GBP/AUD offered below 50% Fibo
2012-11-15 00:51 GMT : EUR/USD: Hourly pin forms off 200 EMA; bears encouraged
------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.2753 LOW 1.27174 BID 1.27473 ASK 1.27476 CHANGE 0.09% TIME 08:03:46
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Current market installation might suggest us about the uptrend formation on the hourly timeframe. Break of 1.2758 (R1) is required for attack to the next target at 1.2772 (R2). Final resistance could be found at 1.2787 (R3) today. Downwards scenario: Risk of further market depreciation is seen below the next support level at 1.2730 (S1). Loss here would suggest intraday targets at 1.2715 (S2) and 1.2700 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2758, 1.2772, 1.2787
Support Levels: 1.2730, 1.2715, 1.2700
-----------------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.58552 LOW 1.58361 BID 1.58519 ASK 1.58523 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 08:03:47
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Our next resistance level locates at 1.5859 (R1). If market gains momentum and manage to overcome it, we expect further deviation from the initial downtrend towards to next targets at 1.5877 (R2) and 1.5894 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of market weakening is seen below the fresh low at 1.5834 (S1). Loss here would enable bearish forces and might expose our targets at 1.5815 (S2) and 1.5796 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5859, 1.5877, 1.5894
Support Levels: 1.5834, 1.5815, 1.5796
--------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 80.943 LOW 80.125 BID 80.931 ASK 80.933 CHANGE 0.85% TIME 08:03:48
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: USDJPY appreciated by 0.85% today and determined clear bullish market sentiment. Our key resistance level locates at fresh high – 80.96 (R1), clearance here would suggest higher targets at 81.10 (R2) and 81.25 (R3) intraday. Downwards scenario: Risk of correction is seen below the next support level at 80.61 (S1), break here is required to enable lower targets at 80.47 (S2) and 80.32 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 80.96, 81.10, 81.25
Support Levels: 80.61, 80.47, 80.32
Third quarter GDP data for the Eurozone published yesterday revealed that the area has once again slipped into recession. According to Eurostat Q3 GDP was down by 0.1%, which is the second consecutive quarterly decline. Only the German and French economies expanded, both by 0.2%. Martin van Vliet from ING comments: “GDP figures clearly demonstrate that the Eurozone economy as a whole is in desperate need of macroeconomic stimulus. With policymakers seemingly reluctant to engineer a coordinated pull-back from fiscal austerity, more monetary stimulus and a weaker currency is likely to be needed to put Eurozone back on a path of sustained growth.”
ECB Governing Council member Luc Coene declared in the European morning that Spain should urgently seek EU aid. European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn, who spoke later in the day, assured that the solution to the Greek problem requires a combination of measures, providing the principal amount of its debt does not change.-FXstreet.com https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/16112012/
UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-11-16 10:00 GMT : E. M. U. Trade Balance
2012-11-16 14:00 GMT : United States. Net Long-Term TIC Flows
2012-11-16 14:15 GMT : United States. Industrial Production
2012-11-16 20:45 GMT : United States. Fed's Lockhart speech
UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-11-16 04:31 GMT : GBP/AUD flat around 1.5350; with bullish scope?
2012-11-16 04:28 GMT : AUD/CAD looking more bearish if below 1.0290
2012-11-16 04:06 GMT : USD/JPY consolidation likely next week - Nomura
2012-11-16 01:31 GMT : EUR/USD bears cap rebound at 1.28
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.27845 LOW 1.27645 BID 1.27681 ASK 1.27688 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 08:03:35
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: We expect resuming of the uptrend formation if the price manages to overcome next resistance level at 1.2786 (R1). Immediate focus comes on 1.2800 (R1) and 1.2814 (r3) in such scenario. Downwards scenario: Price decline below the next support levels at 1.2759 (S1) might trigger bearish pressure and enable next target at 1.2745 (S2). Further correction development might face final support level at 1.2732 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2786, 1.2800, 1.2814
Support Levels: 1.2759, 1.2745, 1.2732
-----------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.58665 LOW 1.58569 BID 1.58597 ASK 1.58604 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08:03:36
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: A medium-term bias is negative now though intraday bullish forces might be activated if the pair penetrates above the resistance level at 1.5868 (R1). Next immediate resistance levels holds at 1.5884 (R2) and 1.5899 (R3). Downwards scenario: Downside direction is limited by next support level at 1.5841 (S1), price decrease below it would be targeting next supports at 1.5826 (S2) and 1.5810 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5868, 1.5884, 1.5899
Support Levels: 1.5841, 1.5826, 1.5810
------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 81.268 LOW 80.973 BID 81.010 ASK 81.013 CHANGE -0.19% TIME 08:03:38
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: While instrument trades below the resistance level at 81.28 (R1), market would try to form correction. Break above it is required to attack the upside target at 81.50 (R2) and 81.70 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: If price would manage to overcome our support at 80.92 (S1) we suggest next targets at 80.70 (S2) and 80.46 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 81.28, 81.50, 81.70
Support Levels: 80.92, 80.70, 80.46
ECB's Asmussen calls for a 2-year funding extension on Greece
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Joerg Asmussen, member of the European Central Bank, told German broadcaster ZDF over the weekend, EU leaders should agree on a 2-year loan extension for Greece, with any additional funding plan to be decided at a later stage, confirming the broadly-held view within the EU of 'kicking the can down the road', a position not marrying too well with IMF Director Christine Lagarde, who has been repeatedly calling for a long-standing comprehensible plan.
For today, EUR related economic agenda for the London session ahead looks soft, with only Italian industrial production at 09:00 GMT. However, several conferences in the EU will take place in parallel, ahead of tomorrow's key Eurogroup meetings. The special attention will be headlines from EU Commissioner Barnier and Spain EcoMin De Guindos, speaking at the EU conference on financial stability and the single market at 08:30 GMT. Also Deutsche Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann speech in Frankfurt at the same time will attract market's attention. In the EZ sovereign debt auctions front, France will deliver Treasury bills at 12:45 GMT, with 10 year bond yields stable around the 2% figure, last at 2.08%. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/19112012/
UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-11-19 **:00 GMT Japan. BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
2012-11-19 10:00 GMT European Monetary Union. Construction Output
2012-11-19 15:00 GMT United States. Existing Home Sales Change
2012-11-19 23:00 GMT Australia. Conference Board Australia Leading Index
UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-11-19 06:08 GMT EUR/USD advance above 1.28 should command respect
2012-11-19 06:02 GMT GBP/USD rises above 1.59 on positive tone
2012-11-19 04:43 GMT AUD/EUR seen at +0.84 in early 2013 - Westpac
2012-11-19 04:07 GMT EUR/AUD looking for bids around 1.23 mark
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.27734 LOW 1.27401 BID 1.27582 ASK 1.27588 CHANGE 0.13% TIME 07:59:51
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Instrument show up 0.13% rise today and any further appreciation needs to clear barrier at 1.2774 (R1). Intraday targets could be found at 1.2786 (R2) and then at 1.2798 (R3). Downwards scenario: Below the 10 SMA locates our next support level at 1.2751 (S1). Break here might open a route towards to next targets at 1.2739 (S2) and 1.2727 (S3) in perspective.
Resistance Levels: 1.2774, 1.2786, 1.2798
Support Levels: 1.2751, 1.2739, 1.2727
---------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.59233 LOW 1.58806 BID 1.59109 ASK 1.59116 CHANGE 0.17% TIME 07:59:52
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: market sentiment is clearly bullish today. Fresh high formed today acts now as next resistance level at 1.5924 (R1). Above here open way towards to next targets at 1.5936 (R2) and then at 1.5947 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of depreciation is seen below the local high, formed on the 14-11-2012 at 1.5902 (S1). Break here is required to enable lower targets at 1.5890 (S2) and 1.5877 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5924, 1.5936, 1.5947
Support Levels: 1.5902, 1.5890, 1.5877
----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 81.587 LOW 81.125 BID 81.243 ASK 81.247 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 07:59:53
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION Up : trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Medium term bias is positive for USDJPY. Risk of market appreciation is seen above the next resistance level at 81.41 (R1). Loss here would suggest next target at 81.62 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting 81.82 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the pair gains momentum on the downside and manage to break our next support level at 81.10 (S1), it is likely to get acceleration towards to our next support level at 80.90 (S2) and 80.68 (S3), exactly where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level lies.
Resistance Levels: 81.41, 81.62, 81.82
Support Levels: 81.10, 80.90, 80.68
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Moody's has downgraded France's government bond rating to Aa1 from Aaa, maintains negative outlook. Moody's decision to downgrade France and maintain the negative outlook reflects the following:
From Moody's: 1.) France's long-term economic growth outlook is negatively affected by multiple structural challenges, including its gradual, sustained loss of competitiveness and the long-standing rigidities of its labour, goods and service markets. 2.) France's fiscal outlook is uncertain as a result of its deteriorating economic prospects, both in the short term due to subdued domestic and external demand, and in the longer term due to the structural rigidities noted above. 3.) The predictability of France's resilience to future euro area shocks is diminishing in view of the rising risks to economic growth, fiscal performance and cost of funding. France's exposure to peripheral Europe through its trade linkages and its banking system is disproportionately large, and its contingent obligations to support other euro area members have been increasing. Moreover, unlike other non-euro area sovereigns that carry similarly high ratings, France does not have access to a national central bank for the financing of its debt in the event of a market disruption. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/20112012/
UPCOMING EVENTS :
2011-08-10 **:00 GMT : European Monetary Union. EcoFin Meeting
2011-08-10 07:00 GMT : Germany. Producer Price Index
2012-11-20 13:30 GMT : United States. Housing Starts
2012-11-20 17:15 GMT : United States. Fed's Bernanke Speech
UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-11-20 06:07 GMT : GBP/USD bulls have room to run; resistance at 1.6065 - V.Bednarik
2012-11-20 05:52 GMT : EUR/USD holds 1.28; Greece aid hopes outweigh France downgrade
2012-11-20 05:27 GMT : AUD/USD long term bearish – Forex.com
2012-11-20 05:02 GMT : NZD/USD limited below key Fibo around 0.82
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.28142 LOW 1.27649 BID 1.27885 ASK 1.27891 CHANGE -0.19% TIME 08 : 11 : 04
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: On the bigger picture trend still is pointing up. Targets at 1.2824 (R2) and 1.2837 (R3) might be attractive for the uptrend penetration if the price manage to break our next resistance level at 1.2811 (R1). Downwards scenario: Clearance of next support level at 1.2785 (S1) might lead to the retracement formation with next expected targets at 1.2772 (S2) and 1.2760 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.2811, 1.2824, 1.2837
Support Levels: 1.2785, 1.2772, 1.2760
----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.59195 LOW 1.58914 BID 1.59130 ASK 1.59135 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08 : 11 : 05
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Market moves in consolidation mode after the uptrend formation and we expect retest of previous day high later on today. Clearance of next resistance level at 1.5924 (R1) would suggest next targets at 1.5936 (R2) and 1.5947 (R3). Downwards scenario: While next support is placed at 1.5907 (S1), decline below it would put in focus next target at 1.5894 (S2) and any further depreciation would then be limited to 1.5882 (S3) intraday.
Resistance Levels: 1.5924, 1.5936, 1.5947
Support Levels: 1.5907, 1.5894, 1.5882
-----------------------------
USDJPY
HIGH 81.432 LOW 81.142 BID 81.309 ASK 81.313 CHANGE -0.12% TIME 08 : 11 : 06
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Instrument stabilized and trades in a narrow channel without priority in direction. Fresh peak is acting now as resistance level at 81.43 (R1), penetration above it would suggest next targets at 81.59 (R2) and 81.76 (R3) on the upside. Downwards scenario: We suggest waiting for a clear break out of important levels prior taking any positions. If USDJPY manage to break our support level at 81.12 (S1), we expect next targets at 80.94 (S2) and 80.75 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 81.43, 81.59, 81.76
Support Levels: 81.12, 80.94, 80.75
EU Finance Ministers fail to agree on Greece; Talks to resume on Monday
The European finance ministers failed to reach any conclusive decision on Greece after a 10+ hours meeting in Brussels, which came to a conclusion well into the night at around 4am. Details will not be released and the press conference was canceled. Luke Baker, Reuters bureau chief in Brussels, notes: "After more than 10 hours of meeting, German Finance Minister Schaeuble said euro zone finance ministers couldn't reach an agreement on Greece. Euro Finance Chiefs will continue talks on Monday..."
Earlier on the Asian session, Reuters was out reporting on a Eurogroup document laying out details on Greek debt, which is seen at debt to GDP of 144% in 2020, 133% in 2022, 111% in 2030, noted Mr. Baker. Current Greek debt level stands at 170% of GDP. Bloomberg reported that target of reaching debt sustainability may be postponed to 2022. One of the measures under discussion is suspending for 10 years interest payments on loans provided to Greece by the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), Reuters reported citing an unnamed official. It is thought that even combined elements "would still fail to reduce the overall debt-to-GDP ratio to 120% by 2020, the level the IMF has deemed as 'sustainable' " Bloomberg notes. Speculation is that IMF may remove itself from any Greek bailout programs if the 120% threshold can not be reached.-Fxstreet.com https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/21112012/
UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-11-21 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Bank of England Minutes
2012-11-21 13:30 GMT | United States. Initial Jobless Claims
2012-11-21 14:55 GMT | United States. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
2012-11-21 15:00 GMT | United States. Leading Indicator
FOREX NEWS :
2012-11-21 05:46 GMT | GBP/USD peels back to 1.59 ahead of BoE Minutes
2012-11-21 05:32 GMT | EUR/GBP; 1-month already dealing around the 0.80 figure
2012-11-21 05:08 GMT | EUR/AUD turns lower toward 1.2300
2012-11-21 04:18 GMT | AUD/USD sinks on Eurogroup dissapointment
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.2822 LOW 1.27364 BID 1.27527 ASK 1.27533 CHANGE -0.5% TIME 08 : 01 : 43
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: EURUSD formed retracement formation today, turning intraday bias to the negative side. Our next resistance level for today is hold at 1.2774 (R1). Rise above it might open route towards to next targets at 1.2788 (R2) and 1.2803 (R3). Downwards scenario: A break below the fresh low at 1.2736 (S1) would allow bears remaining in play on the medium-term perspective. Next targets could be found at 1.2720 (S2) and 1.2705 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2774, 1.2788, 1.2803
Support Levels: 1.2736, 1.2720, 1.2705
----------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.59285 LOW 1.58998 BID 1.59046 ASK 1.59051 CHANGE -0.12% TIME 08 : 01 : 44
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: A move above the resistance level at 1.5912 (R1) might drive market price towards to next target at 1.5921 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to resistance at 1.5930 (R3). Downwards scenario: Hourly chart correction remains in power today. Next barrier locates at 1.5894 (S1). Loss here might enable further bearish pressure and downgrade Cable towards to expected targets at 1.5886 (S2) and 1.5877 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5912, 1.5921, 1.5930
Support Levels: 1.5894, 1.5886, 1.5877
-----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 81.974 LOW 81.654 BID 81.913 ASK 81.917 CHANGE 0.29% TIME 08 : 01 : 46
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: USDJPY gained momentum on the positive side and formed fresh high today, which is our key point for further market gains. Strengthening above the resistance at 81.97 (R1) would enable expected targets at 82.14 (R2) and 82.29 (R3). Downwards scenario: Retracement development is limited to the next support level at 81.70 (S1). Clearance here would open road towards to possible targets, located at 81.53 (S2) and 81.35 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 81.97, 82.14, 82.29
Support Levels: 81.70, 81.53, 81.35
Judging by the reaction of the market after EU authorities failed to reach a deal on Greece, hopes that by Monday leaders will resolve the technicalities and find a way to unblock the next disbursement of bailout money to Greece, continue to run high, and so does the Euro. There are varies option on the table, with the WSJ citing the three most likely, which include a debt buybacks program, loan interest cuts to 0.25%, which may potentially save the country over 44 billion euros, and a return of SMP profits. The German leader Angela Merkel advocated after the last EcoFin meeting that they could beef up the EFSF funds by 10 billion euros to support an activation of a Greece buy back program. Meanwhile, EU leaders are scheduled to have talks today about budget talks, with the market focusing on the area's spending plan. Headline over this meeting will hardly move the Euro.
Eurozone finance ministers are discussing options to bring down Greece's debt to 120% of GDP in 2020. One of the measures under discussion is suspending for 10 years interest payments on loans provided to Greece by the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), Reuters reported citing an unnamed official. Another measure could be to buy back Greek debt held by private financial institutions, offering 30% of its value, while a third step would be to cut the interest on €53 billion of bilateral loans to Greece, to 25 basis points from the current 150 basis points. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/22112012/
FOREX NEWS :
2012-11-22 05:44 GMT | EUR/USD below 1.16 in 2013 favored – JPM
2012-11-22 04:07 GMT | GBP/JPY moving in tight ranges below 132
2012-11-22 03:03 GMT | AUD is 5% overvalued – JPM
2012-11-22 01:28 GMT | AUD/CAD risks to the downside if below 1.0300 – TD Securities
-----------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.28682 LOW 1.28261 BID 1.28466 ASK 1.28472 CHANGE 0.14% TIME 08:17:21
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: EURUSD tested positive side today and gains 0.14 %. Local high, formed today acts now as next barrier for further price appreciation. Clearance of 1.2868 (R1) would suggest next targets at 1.2885 (R2) and 1.2902 (R3). Downwards scenario: Important support level locates right at 1.2831 (S1). Successful retest here would open route towards to next target at 1.2814 (S2) and any further decline would then be limited to final support for today at 1.2796 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2868, 1.2885, 1.2902
Support Levels: 1.2831, 1.2814, 1.2796
----------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.59698 LOW 1.59509 BID 1.59599 ASK 1.59606 CHANGE 0.06% TIME 08:17:22
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD accomplished new step of uptrend formation. Risk of further market increase is seen above the resistance at 1.5970 (R1). Violation here might increase bullish pressure and expose next targets at 1.5981 (R2) and 1.5992 (R3). Downwards scenario: Price depreciation below the support at 1.5949 (S1) level might likely push the pair toward the second target at 1.5939 (S2) and any further market decline would then be limited to support at 1.5928 (S3) price.
Resistance Levels: 1.5970, 1.5981, 1.5992
Support Levels: 1.5949, 1.5939, 1.5928
-----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 82.591 LOW 82.366 BID 82.470 ASK 82.474 CHANGE -0.07% TIME 08:17:24
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: If we take a look on the hourly chart we can see that medium-term bias is clearly positive. We expect further appreciation if the price manages to overcome 82.61 (R1). Next targets could be found at 82.80 (R2) and 82.99 (R3). Downwards scenario: A failure to clear next resistance barrier would open the way towards the initial support level at 82.26 (S1) price. Loss here might take the pair towards to eventual targets, located at 82.07 (S2) and 81.87 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 82.61, 82.80, 82.99
Support Levels: 82.26, 82.07, 81.87
Greece edges towards a debt deal; IMF lowers demands
Greece may soon breathe a sigh of relief, as a deal with the Troika looks closer, according to Greek-based paper ekathimeini, citing Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras who suggests only 10 billion euros stand in the way of a deal.From ekathimeini: "Sources said that another 8 to 10 billion euros was needed to meet the target." the Greek paper also reports that "the IMF has accepted that Greek debt will not meet its target of 120 percent of GDP in 2020 and is willing for this to change to 124 percent in the same year."
German Chancellor Angela Merckel said after the meeting she doubts an agreement will be reached on EU budget this week, and will likely need another few sessions of negotiations. She added positions are too far apart for now. Meanwhile, according to an official statement by the European Council, Yves Mersch has been appointed to the executive board of the European Central Bank for a term of eight years as from 15 December. He will succeed José Manuel González-Páramo, who completed his term of office on 31 May. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/23112012/
UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-11-23 **:00 GMT | European Monetary Union. European Council meeting
2012-11-23 07:00 GMT | Germany. Gross Domestic Product
2012-11-23 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. BBA Mortgage Approvals
2012-11-23 13:30 GMT | Canada. Consumer Price Index
FOREX NEWS :
2012-11-23 05:50 GMT | GBP/USD makes 10-year volatility lows while around 1.5950
2012-11-23 04:47 GMT | USD/JPY in the red below 82.50 for first time in a week
2012-11-23 03:40 GMT | USD/CAD 0.99 a decent support area - TDS
2012-11-23 02:57 GMT | EUR/USD finds bids above 1.2870
----------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.28939 LOW 1.28685 BID 1.28939 ASK 1.28940 CHANGE 0.06% TIME 08 : 13 : 26
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: We placed our next resistance level above the yesterday high at 1.2899 (R1). If the market manages to overcome it, next resistance in focus would be 1.2917 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting 1.2935 (R3).Downwards scenario: The pair continues to extend its strengthening on the medium- term perspective, however a breach of our next support level at 1.2868 (S1) might trigger downside formation towards to our next targets at 1.2851 (S2) and 1.2839 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2899, 1.2917, 1.2935
Support Levels: 1.2868, 1.2851, 1.2839
--------------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.59526 LOW 1.59336 BID 1.59526 ASK 1.59530 CHANGE 0.1% TIME 08 : 13 : 27
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: BBA Mortgage Approvals release at 09:30 GMT in focus. Break above the next resistance level at 1.5959 (R1) would suggest next targets at 1.5969 (R2) and 1.5978 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: From the technical side, market sentiment is not clear. Next attractive level for the downside development locates at 1.5939 (S1). Loss here might take the pair towards to eventual targets at 1.5928 (S2) and 1.5918 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5959, 1.5969, 1.5978
Support Levels: 1.5939, 1.5928, 1.5918
-----------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 82.506 LOW 82.181 BID 82.268 ASK 82.272 CHANGE -0.24% TIME 08 : 13 : 28
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Medium term bias remains positive after correction, provided today. Our next resistance is placed at 82.44 (R1). Rise above it might push price towards to next targets at 82.61 (R2) and 82.77 (R3) intraday.Downwards scenario: Instrument trades below the moving averages and we expect the pair to extend its losses later on today. Below the support level at 82.15 (S1) locates initial retracement targets at 81.98 (S2) and 81.82 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 82.44, 82.61, 82.77
Support Levels: 82.15, 81.98, 81.82
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 25 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 25 2013
Italy at the crossroads ahead of weekend elections
On 24 and 25 February Italy heads to the polls to vote in the general election, called two months before of the end of the statutory five-year term. The outcome is rather uncertain as many voters remain undecided as to who to choose. Before the opinion polls blackout on 8 February, surveys showed that the center-left party had the most support.
The frontrunners in the election are the head of the center-left Democratic Party (PD) Pier Luigi Bersani and center-right People of Freedom (PDL) party’s leader Silvio Berlusconi. Third in the opinion polls comes the comedian turned populist politician Beppe Grillo an his 5-Star movement (5SM). The current Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti leading the Civic Choice coalition party also takes part in the elections, but is not expected to claim victory, but rather be a “kingmaker”. The outcome of the election is crucial as the new government will have to make head against the fiscal crisis consuming the country and implement reforms in order to prop up the ailing economy. A failure to do so would have dire implications for Italy and consequently the entire Eurozone as providing a bailout for such a large economy might prove to be impossible. As chief economist at Maverick Intelligence Megan Green suggests in an article for Bloomberg: “The next government in Rome may be stable or reformist by Italian standards, but it will not be both.”
Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-25 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. BBA Mortgage Approvals (Jan)
2013-02-25 13:30 GMT | United States. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jan)
2013-02-25 17:15 GMT | Canada. BoC Governor Mark Carney Speech
2013-02-25 21:15 GMT | Australia. RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speech
Forex News
2013-02-25 05:46 GMT | GBP/USD sinks beneath 1.5100
2013-02-25 05:22 GMT | Euro traders shift gaze to Rome
2013-02-25 05:02 GMT | USD/JPY recovers again above 94.00
2013-02-25 04:23 GMT | NZD/USD expected at 0.87 by year end – NAB
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Neutral
TREND CONDITION: Sideways
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: We are not expecting significant volatility increase today however clearance of our next resistive barrier at 1.3220 (R1) is required to push the price towards to our next visible targets at 1.3244 (R2) and 1.3268 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of the further downtrend formation is seen below the 1.3179 (S1). With penetration here opens a route towards to our immediate support level at 1.3156 (S2) and any further price cut would then be limited to final target at 1.3130 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3220, 1.3244, 1.3268
Support Levels: 1.3179, 1.3156, 1.3130
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is pointing to a negative market sentiment by losing -0.25% today. Though clearance of our resistance at 1.5167 (R1) might trigger recovery action towards to our initial targets at 1.5214 (R2) and 1.5260 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our next support level is seen below the local low at 1.5075 (S1). Any penetration below this level would increase likelihood of the downtrend development and suggest bearish priority in direction. Intraday support levels are placed at the 1.5030 (S2) and 1.4984 (S3) marks.
Resistance Levels: 1.5167, 1.5214, 1.5260
Support Levels: 1.5075, 1.5030, 1.4984
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
Upwards scenario: Market maintains a positive medium-term tone and currently is limited to our next resistive barrier at 94.36 (R1). If it manages to break it we would suggest next intraday targets at 94.50 (R2) and 94.65 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, break below the support at 93.96 (S1) would open a route for a recovery phase. Further market decline would then be targeting next supportive measures at 93.80 (S2) and 93.65 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 94.36, 94.50, 94.65
Support Levels: 93.96, 93.80, 93.65
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 26 2013
Italians lead the country to ungovernability
Italians are leading the country to the ungovernability, and after a neck-to-neck battle to take control over the lower house between the center-left Bersani’s party and Mr. Grillo’s five star movement, with the first claiming a marginal victory, the big problem now lies in the advance from the center-right Berlusconi’s group and Mr- Grillo in the Senate, where there is no majority by any party. According to the latest reports, which show a 99.9% ballot scrutiny conducted, Italy’s center-left Bersani won by a slim margin the lower house while the Senate is confirmed to be deadlocked. The failure to build a coalition between the center-left Bersani’s party in both chambers, will now make any austerity-led implementation laws taken by the uncertain government a slow and difficult process.
As the Wall Street Journal notes: “The result is that Italy may, over the next few weeks, try to form a temporary government backed by a grand coalition of left and right-wing forces with the sole aim of changing Italy’s electoral law and then going to a vote again as early as summer. It isn’t clear who would run such a short-lived government.” Overall, what the results show is a fragmented Italian society, where almost 1/4 of the population failed to turn up at the polling stations, but most worrisome of all is the situation in the Senate, where even with Monti’s support, neither Bersani’s nor Grillo’s party will be able to pass key laws it appears, thus heightening fears over the austeritarian path Italy had undertaken under Monti’s technocrat government being no longer viable. A temporary hung parliament through a grand coalition government? Possibility of a second election being called? At the moment the landscape in Italian politics is extremely uncertain. What appears to have gained clarity though, is that Italian bonds are likely to be dumped until the political mess clears up.
Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-26 10:00 GMT | United Kingdom. Inflation Report Hearings
2013-02-26 14:00 GMT | United States. Housing Price Index (MoM) (Dec)
2013-02-26 15:00 GMT | United States. Fed’s Bernanke testifies
2013-02-26 21:45 GMT | New Zeland. Trade Balance (MoM) (Jan)
Forex News
2013-02-26 05:36 GMT | EUR/USD to bounce on Bernanke testimony – Westpac
2013-02-26 05:20 GMT | GBP/USD above 1.52, against all
2013-02-26 04:45 GMT | EUR/JPY sellers win 38.2% fib battle; breaks sub 120.00 again
2013-02-26 04:08 GMT | USD/JPY returns to the downside below key 92.20
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Down Trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Instrument stabilized after the losses provided yesterday and we expect neutral formation development prior further volatility increase. Intraday bull’s power might activate when the pair approach resistance level at 1.3092 (R1). Our next target is seen at 1.3118 (R2) and 1.3143 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the local low at 1.3036 (S1) might maintain a negative tone and prolong downtrend formation. Price devaluation would then be targeting our supportive measures at 1.3011 (S2) and 1.2985 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3092, 1.3118, 1.3143
Support Levels: 1.3036, 1.3011, 1.2985
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
Upwards scenario: Instrument gained momentum, turning intraday bias to the positive side. Next resistance ahead is seen at 1.5220 (R1). Upwards penetration above it might drive market price towards to initial targets at 1.5253 (R2) and 1.5284 (R3). Downwards scenario: Opportunities for bearish oriented traders are seen below the important support level at 1.5153 (S1). Loss here would open door for the downtrend expansion towards to interim targets at 1.5118 (S2) and 1.5081 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5220, 1.5253, 1.5284
Support Levels: 1.5153, 1.5118, 1.5081
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Down Trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
Upwards scenario: Instrument has over performed yesterday, being unable to made significant correction. Our focus returned to the resistive barrier at 92.59 (R1). If the price manages to surpass it, market participants have a chance to establish recovery formation towards to next targets at 92.89 (R2) and 93.18 (R3). Downwards scenario: Markets simply ignored all supportive measures yesterday and formed clear bearish bias. Risk of further decline is seen below the key support level at 91.74 (S1). Break here is required to enable lower target at 91.47 (S2) and 91.18 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 92.59, 92.89, 93.18
Support Levels: 91.74, 91.47, 91.18
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 28 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 28 2013
Moody’s: Euro zone debt markets vulnerable to further shocks
Moody’s rating agency continues to warn Euro area countries that debt markets in the region remain vulnerable to further shocks to investor confidence. Find below the main quotes from the official communique: “Market volatility in recent days proves that the euro area sovereign debt markets remain vulnerable to further shocks to investor confidence because of the limited fundamental changes in euro area countries’ economic indicators, debt trajectories or institutional reforms since last July.”
“The growth outlook for peripheral countries is still weak, and progress in reversing debt trajectories remains slow and halting. Political and implementation risks remain significant, with little evidence of cohesion among policymakers and a rising risk of complacency setting in as market pressure for reforms subsides. And while the introduction of the Outright Monetary Transaction facility by the European Central Bank has successfully reversed the rise in sovereign debt yields for now, the potential for further shocks remains, for example with investors in Greece (C) and Cyprus (Caa3, negative) still exposed to heightened default risk.” “Overall, for most euro area countries, the balance of macroeconomic, political and implementation risks as well as the ‘event’ risks of further shocks to confidence remain firmly to the downside, supporting Moody’s negative outlooks for most euro area sovereign ratings.”
Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-28 08:55 GMT | Germany. DE Unemployment Change (Feb)
2013-02-28 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY) (Jan)
2013-02-28 13:00 GMT | Germany. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-02-28 13:30 GMT | United States. Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q4)
Forex News
2013-02-27 13:52 GMT | USD/JPY falls after US durable goods orders
2013-02-27 13:50 GMT | EUR/USD back to 1.3085/90 after US data
2013-02-27 13:31 GMT | US: Durable Good Orders fell 5.2% in January
2013-02-27 12:38 GMT | GBP/USD easing from 1.5140 zone
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Potential is seen for break above the resistance at 1.3163 (R1) today and develop some recovery from the initial downtrend formation. In such scenario we would suggest next target at 1.3189 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to 1.3214 (R3). Downwards scenario: Although we do expect some pull-backs on the downside below our next support level at 1.3132 (S1). Short-term momentum on the negative side might open the way towards to immediate supports at 1.3104 (S2) and 1.3076 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3163, 1.3189, 1.3214
Support Levels: 1.3132, 1.3104, 1.3076
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Neutral
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High
Upwards scenario: Market sentiment has improved for the bullish oriented traders. Fresh high formed today offers next resistance level at 1.5177 (R1). In case of market appreciation above that level our focus would then be shifted to the higher targets at 1.5219 (R2) and 1.5258 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of market weakening is seen below the key support at 1.5119 (S1). Loss here is required to allow further declines and expose our support barrier at 1.5080 (S3) en route towards to final target for today at 1.5039 (S3)
Resistance Levels: 1.5177, 1.5219, 1.5258
Support Levels: 1.5119, 1.5080, 1.5039
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
Upwards scenario: Market having failed to establish directional movement yesterday. Possible price strengthening might arise above the next resistance level at 92.66 (R1). Next interim target holds at 92.97 (R2) en route toward to our major aim at 93.27 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support at 92.15 (S1) is liable to put more downward pressure on the instrument in the near-term perspective. As a result our supportive means at 91.85 (S2) and 91.54 (S3) might be triggered.
Resistance Levels: 92.66, 92.97, 93.27
Support Levels: 92.15, 91.85, 91.54
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 01 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 01 2013
It's official, the US sequestration kicks in
The sequestration, for those unfamiliar with the term, is defined by the US Federal Budget as "the practice of using mandatory spending cuts in the federal budget if the cost of running the government exceeds either an arbitrary amount or the the gross revenue it brings during the fiscal year." These automatic federal budget cuts are officially kicking in within as we write these lines, after a final bill presented by Democrats and Republicans in the Senate failed to win enough support. What this means is that the US will now go through an across-the-board spending cuts in the face of annual budget deficits, which are thought to amount over $85 billion in the current fiscal year. "Assuming that every dollar cut in spending reduces GDP by a dollar, the sequester will shave US growth by around 0.5% this year" comments Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at BBH.
Marc adds: "The sequester itself is a bit of a farce in the sense that it was never intended to be enacted. It was purposely designed to be absurd to give the political class incentive to find an alternative." The analyst suspects that what is behind the 'sequester' is the fact that main political players did their calculations concluding is the best worst alternative. Obama crossed the wires later Thursday, saying that "tomorrow I will bring together leaders from both parties to discuss a path forward; as a nation, we can’t keep lurching from one manufactured crisis to another. Middle-class families can’t keep paying the price for dysfunction in Washington.” Kathy Lien, co-founder at BK Asset Management, notes: "We've been down this road before with the debt ceiling and survived." But as Kathy adds, here comes the kicker: "The Obama Administration has another 30 days to come up with a deal to cancel and avoid the cuts. The more important deadline is March 27th, when the government runs out of money and will be forced to shutdown if no additional measures are taken." Investors are holding out hope for a last minute deal, Kathy says.
Forex Economic Calendar
2013-03-01 09:28 GMT | United Kingdom. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
2013-03-01 13:30 GMT | United States. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Prices Index (YoY) (Jan)
2013-03-01 13:30 GMT | Canada. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Dec)
2013-03-01 13:58 GMT | United States. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
Forex News
2013-03-01 05:57 GMT | GBP/USD above 1.5150; slows down avrg vol
2013-03-01 05:34 GMT | EUR/USD continues sequestered by sellers
2013-03-01 03:50 GMT | Gold below $1590 as 'sequester' looms
2013-03-01 02:55 GMT | AUD/USD little moved around 1.0220
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30836 LOW 1.30532 BID 1.30775 ASK 1.30783 CHANGE 0.17% TIME 08 : 02:53
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Price get momentum on the downside yesterday however we see potential to overcome our next resistance level at 1.3094 (R1). Clearance here might pull the pair towards to eventual targets at 1.3121 (R2) and 1.3146 (R3). Downwards scenario: Near term outlook is negative for the EURUSD as the price setup is taken a form of a downside formation. Expected progress below the initial support level at 1.3051 (S1) might expose intraday targets at 1.3024 (S2) and then 1.2996 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3094, 1.3121, 1.3146
Support Levels: 1.3051, 1.3024, 1.2996
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51824 LOW 1.51513 BID 1.51811 ASK 1.51824 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08 : 02:54
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Sideways formation remains in power today. Next on tap is resistance level at 1.5198 (R1). Clearance here might open a route towards to our initial target at 1.5227 (R2) and then further price appreciation would be limited to last resistance at 1.5258 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, yesterday lows at 1.5148 (S1) offers an important technical level. Clearance here is required to keep the downside extension intact and expose our lower targets at 1.5118 (S2) and 1.5086 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5198, 1.5227, 1.5258
Support Levels: 1.5148, 1.5118, 1.5086
----------------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 92.731 LOW 92.466 BID 92.536 ASK 92.541 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 02:55
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Ascending uptrend formation remains in power today. Next resistance is seen at 92.73 (R1). If the pair manages to successfully climb above it, we expect next targets to be exposed at 92.97 (R2) and 93.20 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other side, price depreciation below the supportive barrier at 92.45 (S1) might provide sufficient space for the recovery action. In such case e we would suggest next intraday targets at 92.23 (R2) and then 92.01 (R3).
Resistance Levels: 92.73, 92.97, 93.20
Support Levels: 92.45, 92.23, 92.01
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 04 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 04 2013
BoJ Kuroda will do whatever it takes to end deflation
The confirmation hearing for Mr. Kuroda as the new chief of the BOJ is taking place in the parliament, and the first comments are crossing the wires. Among the standout headlines, he said that monetary policy will be deployed to conquer deflation, adding that BOJ has not bought enough assets to end deflation, also saying that the BOJ independence is secured by law. Lastly, there was some notorious comments on his assertiveness to implement policies, although with little effects to the Yen so far, as he also said - 'a la Draghi Japanese version' - that he will do whatever it takes to end deflation.
He also noted: "The BOJ must clearly send out the message, through communication with markets, that it will do whatever it can to beat deflation." On the different options to ease policy further, BoJ Kuroda said the most natural way is to increase JBG purchases, buying longer-dated JGBs, although additional market behaviour inspection on potential repercussions should first be examined. He continued saying that the BOJ must expand economic stimulus both through assets volume increases and the type of assets it buys. Also that he might consider a new era of open-ended asset buying soon. To sum up, his comments sound very much as a recipe for disappointment - expectations being set very high - unless the bank starts executing an aggressive balance sheet expansion through domestic long term bond purchases and other risky assets in the coming months. If next April 4 BoJ meeting sees no much changes in policies, there might be more risk of Yen appreciation. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/04032013/
Forex Economic Calendar :
N/A E.M.U. Eurogroup meeting
2013-03-04 09:30 GMT United Kingdom. PMI Construction (Feb)
2013-03-04 10:00 GMT E.M.U. Producer Price Index (YoY) (Jan)
2013-03-04 13:00 GMT United States. FOMC Member Yellen Speech
Forex News :
2013-03-04 05:31 GMT GBP/USD below 1.5050 ahead of UK Construction PMI
2013-03-04 05:20 GMT EUR/USD wrestling around 1.30
2013-03-04 04:54 GMT AUD/USD breaks down to 8-month lows
2013-03-04 04:22 GMT Kiwi prints fresh 2013 lows
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30309 LOW 1.30017 BID 1.30109 ASK 1.30117 CHANGE -0.04% TIME 08 : 18:34
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: We expect next barrier on the upside at 1.3046 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable our initial target at 1.3080 (R2) and any further gains would then be limited to last resistive structure at 1.3114 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next support level locates at 1.2965 (S1), breaching of this level would provide a signal of possible price regress towards to next target at 1.2933 (S2). If the price manages to overcome it, our final support for today could be found at 1.2900 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3046, 1.3080, 1.3114
Support Levels: 1.2965, 1.2933, 1.2900
----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.50437 LOW 1.50222 BID 1.50325 ASK 1.50338 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08 : 18:35
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Our technical outlook for the medium-term perspective remains bearish oriented however a break through next resistance level at 1.5049 (R1) would enable corrective action and might expose our next targets at 1.5087 (R2) and 1.5125 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: While instrument trades below the next resistance level, our medium-term bias forecast would be negative. Penetration below the support level at 1.4984 (S1) might open the way towards to lower targets at 1.4946 (S2) and 1.4909 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5049, 1.5087, 1.5125
Support Levels: 1.4984, 1.4946, 1.4909
-------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 93.723 LOW 93.284 BID 93.416 ASK 93.421 CHANGE -0.13% TIME 08 : 18:36
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Hourly chart consensus remains in play. Buyers might face next challenge at 93.72 (R1). Break here is required to establish bullish pressure, targeting 93.92 (R2) en route towards to last resistance for today at 94.12 (R3). Downwards scenario: The downside trend evolvement is limited now to the next support level at 93.27 (S1), break here would put near-term bulls on hold. Marks at 93.07 (S2) and 92.86 (S3) is the next supportive bastion on the way.
Resistance Levels: 93.72, 93.92, 94.12
Support Levels: 93.27, 93.07, 92.86
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 05 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 05 2013
Cyprus rescue deal nears
Cyprus is well on track to be bailed out by the Euro-zone, after the bloc's finance ministers made a determined pledge this Monday to extend the much-needed final assistance to the cash-strapped country. The decision should be made official by the end of March, with details on how it will be rescued still unknown. The Eurogroup welcomed the new Cypriot Finance Minister, Michalis Sarris, and the information he provided on the situation in Cyprus following the presidential elections and on the policy intentions of the new government. The first exchanges with the new Cypriot government have been useful. With the new government now in place in Cyprus, the Eurogroup is confident that a swift conclusion of the negotiations towards a Memorandum of Understanding can be reached.
The Eurogroup welcomes the commitment of President Anastasiades, reiterated by Minister Sarris, to closely cooperate with Cyprus's European partners towards the earliest possible completion of the loan agreement. For its part, the Eurogroup reiterates its readiness to assist Cyprus in its adjustment effort, including of its banking sector, in order to bring the economy to a sustainable growth path with sound public finances and to safeguard financial stability. The Eurogroup has been informed that the preparatory work for concluding a Memorandum of Understanding is advanced and that the new government has agreed on an independent evaluation of the implementation of the anti-money laundering framework in Cypriot financial institutions. The Eurogroup called on the international institutions and Cyprus to accelerate their work on the building blocks of a programme, and agreed to target political endorsement of the programme around the second half of March. The Eurogroup will reconvene again in the near term in view of the progress of the discussions between the Cypriot authorities and the international institutions. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/05032013/
Forex Economic Calendar :
N/A E.M.U. EcoFin Meeting
2013-03-05 09:28 GMT United Kingdom. Markit Services PMI (Feb)
2013-03-05 10:00 GMT E.M.U. Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
2013-03-05 15:00 GMT United States. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
Forex News :
2013-03-05 05:54 GMT USD/JPY breaks below 93.00
2013-03-05 05:40 GMT GBP/USD again quiet in Asia-Pacific above 1.51
2013-03-05 04:35 GMT EUR/USD at peace with 1.30 vicinity
2013-03-05 03:41 GMT AUD/USD higher post-RBA on hold
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30462 LOW 1.3018 BID 1.30409 ASK 1.30415 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08 : 06:44
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Instrument formed fresh high of the day recently however retail trades sentiment shifted to the bearish side. Further market rise is limited now to the key barrier at 1.3052 (R1), clearance here is required to enable next resistances at 1.3086 (R2) and last one at 1.3118 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next challenge on the downside is seen at 1.3012 (S1). Breakthrough of this level would open way for a stronger expansion and could possibly trigger our initial targets at 1.2977 (S2) and 1.2941 (R3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.3052, 1.3086, 1.3118
Support Levels: 1.3012, 1.2977, 1.2941
------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51398 LOW 1.51041 BID 1.51217 ASK 1.51230 CHANGE 0.06% TIME 08 : 06:45
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Market tested positive side today and formed gradual ascending move. Next resistance in focus holds at 1.5140 (R1). If the break occur here we might see stronger move, targeting next attractive points at 1.5165 (R2) and 1.5190 (R3). Downwards scenario: Market decline below the support level at 1.5099 (S1) might change short-term technical picture and shift market sentiment to the bearish side. In such scenario we expect next targets to be exposed at 1.5070 (S2) and 1.5041 (S3)
Resistance Levels: 1.5140, 1.5165, 1.5190
Support Levels: 1.5099, 1.5070, 1.5041
USDJPY :
HIGH 93.537 LOW 92.913 BID 93.066 ASK 93.072 CHANGE -0.43% TIME 08 : 06:46
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Possibility of price progress is seen above the next resistance level at 93.28 (R1). Breakthrough here would suggest our interim target at 93.54 (R2) and then target at 93.80 (R3) acts as last supportive measure for today. Downwards scenario: The low of the day offers key supportive barrier at 92.89 (S1). Break here might provide sufficient momentum for the downside expansion later on today. Our initial support levels locates today at 92.63 (S2) and 92.37 (S3)
Resistance Levels: 93.28, 93.54, 93.80
Support Levels: 92.89, 92.63, 92.37
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 06 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 06 2013
Keep an eye on the oil market after Chavez's death
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Following the breaking news of Venezuela's president Hugo Chavez death, which has no direct impact on the currency market, traders should, nevertheless, keep an eye on the Oil market, as it may produce some volatility. Venezuelan Vice President Mr. Maduro is expected to win the elections and become Chavez's successor. There was some incendiary comments from Maduro after the announcement of Chavez's death, which Reuters reports: ”We have no doubt that commander Chavez was attacked with this illness,” Maduro said, repeating a charge first made by Chavez himself that the cancer was an attack by “imperialist” foes in the United States in league with domestic enemies.
"This report should be bullish for oil" says Eamonn Sheridan, editor at Forexlive. At the time of writing, US Oil futures are quoted at 90.83 after sharp fall off a double top from early February in the 98.00 vicinity. Venezuela enjoys the world's largest oil reserves and the oil-related bonds being traded are of enormous size, suggesting that the oil community may go through a phase of hyper-sensitivity on any indications of political unrest in the country. As Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com notes: "Although the news has little to do right now with the forex market, Venezuela is an oil producer, and therefore, we may see some wild action in oil and that could affect forex market." She tips to keep an eye on this and its correlation with oil, "particularly at the European and the US opening" she said. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/06032013/
Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-06 09:45 GMT | United Kingdom. BoE's Governor King Speech
2013-03-06 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (Q4)
2013-03-06 15:00 GMT | Canada. BoC Interest Rate Decision (Mar 6)
2013-03-06 19:00 GMT | United States. Fed's Beige Book
Forex News :
2013-03-06 01:18 GMT | USD/JPY pressing against 93.00
2013-03-06 00:45 GMT | AUD/USD above 1.0280 after Aus GDP
2013-03-06 00:19 GMT | EUR/JPY still capped below 122.00
2013-03-05 22:50 GMT | AUD/JPY pushing against 6-day highs ahead of Aus GDP
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30704 LOW 1.30421 BID 1.30683 ASK 1.30688 CHANGE 0.14% TIME 08:06:51
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Local high, formed today at 1.3070 (R1) is the key point for further uptrend formation on the medium-term perspective. Break here is required to validate next upcoming targets at 1.3090 (R2) and 1.3113 (R3). Downwards scenario: Immediate risk of further market decline is seen below the key support level at 1.3045 (S1). Loss here might downgrade currency rate towards to the next supportive means at 1.3022 (S2) and 1.3000 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.3070, 1.3090, 1.3113
Support Levels: 1.3045, 1.3022, 1.3000
----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51543 LOW 1.51236 BID 1.51441 ASK 1.51451 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08:06:52
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Market sentiment is slightly improved during the Asian session however further appreciation needs to clear barrier at 1.5154 (R1) to enable our interim target at 1.5175 (R2) and then further gains would be limited to resistance at 1.5197 (R3). Downwards scenario: The downside formation might face next supportive barrier at 1.5129 (S1). Clearance here is required to open the way towards to our initial support at 1.5108 (S2) and any further price regress would then be limited to final support and 1.5087 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5154, 1.5175, 1.5197
Support Levels: 1.5129, 1.5108, 1.5087
USDJPY :
HIGH 93.38 LOW 92.995 BID 93.186 ASK 93.192 CHANGE -0.1% TIME 08 : 06:53
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Instrument stabilized below the next resistance level at 93.29 (R1). Penetration above it might encourage orders execution and drive market price towards to the next resistive means at 93.51 (R2) and 93.72 (R3). Downwards scenario: An important technical level is seen at 92.99 (S1). Market decline below this level might initiate bearish pressure and drive market price towards to our initial targets at 92.78 (S2) and 92.56 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 93.29, 93.51, 93.72
Support Levels: 92.99, 92.78, 92.56
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 07 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 07 2013
ECB moving closer to a cut; BoE eyeing additional QE
Economic data coming out of the Eurozone in recent months has been rather poor but even though the ECB has still limited room to cut rates, it is generally not expected to make this move at the upcoming meeting. The BoE´s monetary policy decision is the source of more speculation this month as the minutes from the last meeting revealed that three MCP members expressed their support for additional QE. Even though the majority of the analysts polled for the special forecast report expect the ECB to cut interest rates sometime this year, they rather do not see the central bank making this decision in March. "The markets are nervous about the recent elections results in Italy as well as about a possible QE decrease by the Fed so I do not think Mario would want to add fuel to the fire," Adam Narczewski suggests, while others point also to the successful announcement of the OMT as a factor reducing the need for a cut. Only Steve Ruffley sees the ECB bringing "rates to 0.5%, in line with that of the BOE" on March 7, as "the economic horizon for the EU remains very treacherous."
Attention will center on the ECB press conference following the interest rate announcement, during which president Mario Draghi might, in the opinion of Bill Hubard, "revise inflation projections to the downside." He is also likely to "try and balance between the current economic situation which is quite depressing, and the optimism for growth in H2 2013, coming now from higher business confidence, mostly in Germany," as Yohay Elam believes. The outcome of the BoE´s March monetary policy meeting is less clear for the experts as the minutes from the January meeting surprised with the information that three out of the nine MPC members (including the governor Mervyn King) voted in favor of an additional expansion of the asset purchase program by £25 billion to £400 billion. "The downgrade by Moody's, together with the growing support for more QE and the lack of fiscal stimulus from the government will likely lead the MPC to action, even though the effects of QE on the economy are questionable," Yohay Elam predicts, but the majority of the economists polled believe the expansion could be carried out later in the year. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/07032013/
Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-07 12:00 GMT | United Kingdom. BoE Interest Rate Decision (Mar 7)
2013-03-07 12:45 GMT | E.M.U. ECB Interest Rate Decision (Mar 7)
2013-03-07 13:30 GMT | United States. Trade Balance (Jan)
2013-03-07 21:30 GMT | United States. Bank Stress Test Info
Forex News :
2013-03-07 05:51 GMT | GBP/JPY still in uptrend - JPMorgan
2013-03-07 05:17 GMT | BoJ holds steady; Cable prints fresh lows
2013-03-07 04:55 GMT | NZDUSD bearish potential intact - Saxo Bank
2013-03-07 03:44 GMT | USD/JPY slightly to the downside as no surprise from BoJ
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.29963 LOW 1.29686 BID 1.29911 ASK 1.29916 CHANGE 0.2% TIME 07 : 57:45
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: An evidence of uptrend formation might be provided if the price manages to surpass key resistive structure at 1.3009 (R1). Price evaluation above this level would put in focus our higher targets at 1.3038 (R2) and 1.0388 (R3). Downwards scenario: Instrument is moving with a ranging momentum on a slightly shorter timeframe and might retest our next support level at 1.2965 (S1). Market decline below it might lead to the further easing towards to next targets at 1.2938 (S2) and 1.2910 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3070, 1.3090, 1.3113
Support Levels: 1.3045, 1.3022, 1.3000
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.50175 LOW 1.49669 BID 1.50019 ASK 1.50031 CHANGE -0.1% TIME 07 : 57:46
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Next actual resistance level is seen at 1.5043 (R1). If the market manages to surge higher, our focus would returned to the next target at 1.5075 (R2) and further uptrend formation could be exhausted at 1.5107 (R3) intraday. Downwards scenario: Technical indicators are bearish and if the price manages to break our next support level at 1.4968 (S1) we would expect further depreciation towards to our next targets, located at 1.4935 (S2) and 1.4904 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5043, 1.5075, 1.5107
Support Levels: 1.4968, 1.4935, 1.4904
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USDJPY :
HIGH 94.115 LOW 93.792 BID 93.926 ASK 93.932 CHANGE -0.15% TIME 07 : 57:47
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Consolidation pattern formation likely comes to the end and appreciation above the resistance at 94.13 (R1) might start of a new step of the ascending structure. Our intraday targets today are placed at 94.42 (R2) and 94.70 (R3). Downwards scenario: Local low formed today is pointing to a short-term key support at 93.77 (S1). Penetration below it might change near-term tone to the negative side and expose our initial targets at 93.47 (S2) and 93.19 (S3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 94.13, 94.42, 94.70
Support Levels: 93.77, 93.47, 93.19
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 08 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 08 2013
Fed's stress test: banks better prepared for downturn
Stress tests results in the US, conducted by the Fed as an exercise required under the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial overhaul, have shown that 17 out of 18 banks stress tested meet the minimum requirement of tier 1 capital above the 5% threshold, noting that banks could weather sharp downturn with adequate capital. FED said 18 banks projected losses may amount $462 billion under severe market shock, with the test assuming an equity drop of more than 50% and housing prices decreasing more than 20%. The only bank failing to comply with the 5% tier 1 capital was Ally. In summary, all bans combined showed they exceed regulatory minimums although there were wide gaps among them.
The February US jobs numbers are not expected to differ substantially from those registered in the recent months, although the market experts participating in the forecast report suggest that they will rather be somewhat lower. This time the range of predictions is relatively narrow: between 110K and 200K jobs added. Alexandra Estiot who sees the US labor market growing by 180-200K in February justifies her optimistic forecast by saying that "in late 2012, some signs of strengthening were already obvious, with non-farm private payrolls growing by more than 200k a month" and that "leading indicators are pointing to a strengthening of that trend, with employment components of ISM surveys at historical highs." She nevertheless warns about the effects of the automatic budget cuts which after being implemented might harm the labor market. Other analysts, who expect more modest jobs gains in the range of 130K-170K, are also worried about the impact of the sequester and some suspect that the steady growth trend might be coming to an end. Steve Ruffley points to a similar situation in the corresponding period of last year: "We have seen a steady decrease in 2013 from the NFP highs of 247K to last month’s figure of 157K; this mirrors the start of 2012 where the NFP went from 259K to 154K." Should the reading prove better than expected "it could cause short-term positive reaction in the stocks market," as Talal Abdullah suggests and adds that "the uptick in NFP should increase the appeal for the U.S. dollar, as it raises the outlook for growth." US NFP numbers for February will be released on March 8 at 13:30 GMT.-FXstreet.com https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/08032013/
Forex Economic Calendar :
N/A | United Kingdom. Consumer Inflation Expectations
2013-03-08 11:00 GMT | Germany. Industrial Production s.a. w.d.a. (YoY) (Jan)
2013-03-08 13:30 GMT | Canada. Unemployment Rate (Feb)
2013-03-08 13:30 GMT | United States. Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)
Forex News :
2013-03-08 05:33 GMT | GBP/USD unable to hold above 1.5000
2013-03-08 05:20 GMT | Draghi rescues Euro from its $1.30 agony, can it last?
2013-03-08 03:26 GMT | NZD/USD pullsback to retest 0.8260
2013-03-08 02:38 GMT | USD/JPY prints yet another fresh high above 95.20
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.31152 LOW 1.3087 BID 1.30958 ASK 1.30964 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 08 : 30:33
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Markets simply ignored all resistive measures yesterday and formed clear uptrend signal on the hourly chart timeframe. Currently resistive structure at 1.3118 (R1) prevents further gains. Only clearance here would open route towards to next targets at 1.3139 (R2) and 1.3159 (R3). Downwards scenario: Today we expect some consolidation ahead prior further volatility increase. Possibility of market decline is seen below the next support level at 1.3074 (S1) with next expected targets at 1.3053 (S2) and 1.3032 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3118, 1.3139, 1.3159
Support Levels: 1.3074, 1.3053, 1.3032
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.50263 LOW 1.49816 BID 1.49944 ASK 1.49951 CHANGE -0.12% TIME 08:30:35
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: On the upside market might get more incentives above the immediate resistive barrier at 1.5020 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5050 (R2) and 1.5081 (R3). Downwards scenario: However the downside remains favored direction for today. The 1.4968 (S1) would be the key support level. Decline below it might take the pair towards to eventual targets, located at 1.4935 (S2) and 1.4904 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5020, 1.5050, 1.5081
Support Levels: 1.4968, 1.4935, 1.4904
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USDJPY :
HIGH 95.445 LOW 94.781 BID 95.287 ASK 95.291 CHANGE 0.49% TIME 08 : 30:36
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: USDJPY broke all resistive measure yesterday and currently stabilized near its high’s. Appreciation above the resistive barrier at 95.50 (R1) is compulsory to resume positive market structure and validate next intraday targets at 95.84 (R2) and 96.19 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, we still keep the downside extension in focus. Risk of further market depreciation is seen below the support level at 95.10 (S1). Loss here would enable initial targets at 94.75 (S2) and 94.37 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 95.50, 95.84, 96.19
Support Levels: 95.10, 94.75, 94.37
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 11 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 11 2013
Fitch downgrades Italy to BBB+, outlook negative
Fitch Ratings decided to downgrade Italy's rating to 'BBB+' from 'A-', citing the inconclusive results of the Italian parliamentary elections and deeper recession as the main reasons. Fitch also kept negative outlook on the country, meaning Italy could see another downgrade. "The inconclusive results of the Italian parliamentary elections on 24-25 February make it unlikely that a stable new government can be formed in the next few weeks", said Fitch. "The increased political uncertainty and non-conducive backdrop for further structural reform measures constitute a further adverse shock to the real economy amidst the deep recession". Fitch also said that the ongoing recession in Italy is one of the deepest in Europe as confirmed by Q412 data.
Following what could be described as a 'remarkable' jobs number in the United States last Friday, with the jobless rate down to 7.7% and the economy creating 236K new jobs, highest since early 2012, the US Dollar continues to be one of the big winners in the currency market. Are the stars aligning for further Greenback strength? Before touching on the prospects for further USD appreciation, especially against the Euro, an interesting phenomenon not to ignore last Friday is the positive correlation between the US Dollar and the equity market, an occurrence which has seen commentators of the market busy speculating such behaviour as an early sign of improvement in market confidence. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/11032013/
Forex News :
2013-03-11 05:46 GMT | EUR/USD, the 1.30 flirt goes on ...
2013-03-11 05:22 GMT | GBP/USD resting above 1.4900
2013-03-11 03:28 GMT | AUD/JPY holding above 98 on the back of Yen weakness
2013-03-11 01:15 GMT | EUR/JPY unchanged below 125.00
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.3009 LOW 1.29792 BID 1.30027 ASK 1.30035 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08:04:55
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Our medium-term outlook is negative for the EURUSD though possibility of price deviation is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3016 (R1). Retracement targets could be exposed at 1.3035 (R2) and 1.3054 (R3). Downwards scenario: Activation of bearish forces is possible below the support level at 1.2979 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next interim target at 1.2960 (S2) and if the price holds its momentum on the downside we would suggest final target for today at 1.2941 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3016, 1.3035, 1.3054
Support Levels: 1.2979, 1.2960, 1.2941
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.49273 LOW 1.49009 BID 1.49263 ASK 1.49274 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 08:04:55
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: Breaching of resistance at 1.4958 (R1) is required to provide an evidence of corrective action. Possible targets could be exposed at 1.4990 (R2) and 1.5022 (R3) later on today in such scenario. Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today offers an important support level at 1.4899 (S1). Discounted value of GBPUSD might push through this mark and enable next visible target at 1.4866 (S2) en route to support at 1.4834 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.4958, 1.4990, 1.5022
Support Levels: 1.4899, 1.4866, 1.4834
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USDJPY :
HIGH 96.256 LOW 95.94 BID 96.125 ASK 96.131 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08:04:56
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Next immediate resistive barrier is seen at 96.30 (R1). If instrument gains momentum on the upside and manage to overcome it we would focus on the intraday targets at 96.68 (R2) and 97.07 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Although market price remained relatively stable, depreciation below the next support level at 95.49 (S1) might assist to recovery formation evolvement. We expect that our intraday target at 95.10 (S2) and 94.70 (S3) could be exposed later on today in such case.
Resistance Levels: 96.30, 96.68, 97.07
Support Levels: 95.49, 95.10, 94.70
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