Daily Technical Analysis for Majors by Dukascopy

[Anastasia DC]

GBP/USD remains subject to weakness

"When you look at sterling itself, we would argue it is close to fairly valued given the extent of the risk that betting markets show."
HSBC (based on Business Recorder)

Pair's Outlook
The Sterling was unable to preserve the ascending channel pattern last Friday, as it unexpectedly dropped more than 275 pips against the US Dollar, with the decline triggered by the ‘Brexit' polls, showing that majority was voting to leave the EU. With the referendum closing in, the pair remains weak and is likely to suffer another decline today. Demand at the closest support, namely the lower Bollinger band, is insufficient to limit today's losses, whereas the second target lies just under the 1.41 level, represented by the monthly S2 and the weekly S1. The 1.4150 mark could act as a potential interim support, as it was successful in preventing the Cable from edging lower nine weeks ago.

Traders' Sentiment
There are more bulls than bears, as they take up 63% and 37% of the market, respectively, while the share of buy orders slid from 57 to 51%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

USD/JPY dives, as risk-off sentiment preponderates

"This [today's surge in the safe-haven Yen] highlights that the JPY remains a risk appetite proxy, thereby complicating any (indirect) attempts the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may make to weaken its currency."
- BNZ (based on WBP Online)

Pair's Outlook
As was anticipated the USD/JPY currency pair kept gravitating towards the 107.00 major level on Friday, unable to close far away from that area and, as a result, remained relatively unchanged. However, the Japanese Yen received a boost earlier, with risk aversion returning to the markets and driving the exchange rate significantly lower. There is a possibility of the 38.20% Fibo at 106.65 limiting the losses, despite volatility stretching out beyond 106.00. Nevertheless, technical indicators are giving bearish signals, bolstering the possibility of the negative outcome, but the May low at 105.55 is expected to hold.

Traders' Sentiment
There are 71% of traders holding long positions today, unchanged since Friday. At the same time, the number of orders to purchase the US Dollar edged lower, namely from 77 to 45%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

Gold reaches 1,275 on Monday

"The sharp decline in oil prices also weakened the sentiment around the European markets, which were already under pressure from the ECB president's comments."
- Val Kensington (based on Investing.com)

Pair's Outlook
The bullion continued its surge on Friday, as the yellow metal gained strength and the price changed from 1,268.61 to 1,272.83. In addition, as the markets opened on Monday, the metal started trading at 1,275.53. At the moment, gold is struggling with the resistance provided by monthly R1 at 1,278.63, as it bounced off it On Friday and on Monday morning. If the metal changes direction, it will fall to at least the level of 1,261.90, where the weekly PP is located.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have not changed their positions since Friday, as the sentiment is still bearish with 53% of open positions being short.

 

[Anastasia DC]

EUR/USD bounces back to 1.128 on Monday

"Once upon a time, the euro had aspirations to challenge the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency of choice. Instead, the common European currency is losing favor as a store of value."
- Mark Gilbert (based on Bloomberg)

Pair's Outlook
The Euro dropped to 1.1233 on Monday against the US Dollar. However, the currency exchange rate managed to recover and end the day' trading session at 1.1290. On Tuesday morning, the pair has depreciated a little bit to 1.1288, as it struggles fluctuating between the monthly pivot point and 20-day SMA below the rate around at 1.1282 and the weekly PP and 55-day SMA above the pair around at 1.1304. However, aggregate daily technical indicators forecast an appreciation of the European currency against the Greenback.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have not changed their positions since yesterday and are still bearish with 53% of open positions being short. However, in the meantime pending orders in the 100-pip range have decreased even more, as they have declined from 65% to 53%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

GBP/USD still on the back foot

"Sterling is sliding away as we move ever closer to the EU referendum on the 23rd. Who knows which way the vote will go but sterling is being undermined by the uncertainty and this isn't likely to change in the next ten days."
- Smart Currency Business (based on PoundSterligLive)

Pair's Outlook
On Monday profit-taking caused the GBP/USD currency pair to recover from its intraday low, but it was still unable to reclaim the 1.43 major level. Moreover, the trend remains bearish and daily technical indicators support that, as their signals are no long mixed, but also pointing south-ish. The Cable is still driven by the upcoming EU referendum concerns, which is the main impetus that is leading the pair to the downside. Fundamentals could still switch into the Sterling's favour, but the recovery is expected to be short-lived. Nevertheless, the base case scenario is a decline towards around the 1.42 mark, with a decent chance of it getting pierced also present.

Traders' Sentiment
There are 62% of traders holding long positions today (previously 63%), whereas the share of purchase orders slid from 51 to 46%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

USD/JPY on the edge of slipping below 106.00

"The yen is among the preferred safe havens at the moment, both because of its positive correlation with risk aversion and because it's geographically removed from the UK."
- Credit Agricole (based on WBP Online)

Pair's Outlook
The US Dollar edged lower against the Japanese Yen, as risk aversion was dominating the markets on Monday and, as a result, drove the pair almost to the 106.00 level. Technical indicators retain their bearish signals today, suggesting that more bearish momentum is likely to follow. In this case the weekly S1, which is the closest support, is unlikely to prevent the USD/JPY pair from falling deeper down, therefore, more focus should be on the May low of 105.55, while it is also reinforced by the Bollinger band and the weekly S2 today. On the other hand, strong US fundamentals could help the Buck to recover some value, jumping back at least towards the 38.20% Fibo at 106.65.

Traders' Sentiment
Nearly three quarters (73%) of all open positions are now long, but the portion of orders to sell the US Dollar edged higher from 55 to 60%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

Gold suffers first losses in a week on Monday

"Asia, the top bullion-buying region, has seen several gold contracts launched in the last few years as it clamors to gain pricing power over the metal."
- Val Kensington (based on Investing.com)

Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal had been gaining strength for almost a solid week since June 7, and it seemed that the bullion is about to reach the 1,300 mark this week. However, the metal declined on Monday from 1,283 at the start of Monday's trading session to 1,280 at the end of day's trading. However, as gold kept being volatile, it did not pass or even touch the support below provided by the first monthly resistance at 1,278.62. The support below is stronger than the resistance of weekly R1 at 1,289.03, and for the metal upwards, on the way to the 1,300 level, there are no more resistances.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have become very bearish on the currency during the last 24 hours, as open short positions increased from 53% to 66%. However, it did not cause the metal to drop and started to indicate that gold might be oversold.

 

[Anastasia DC]

EUR/USD falls to 1.12 level on Tuesday

"While criticizing the governments' economic policies, the ECB is clearly implying that its printing presses will remain in overdrive for the foreseeable future."
- Dr. Michael Ivanovitch, ex senior economist at OECD (based on CNBC)

Pair's Outlook
Ignoring Monday's gains, the European currency depreciated against the US Dollar on Tuesday and fell to the level of 1.12. However, on Wednesday morning the currency pair has rebounded from the weekly S1 at 1.1192, and it has appreciated a little bit. At the moment, the exchange rate is at 1.1208. If it rebounds from the support, the pair could move north to the weekly pivot point at 1.1282. Although, in such case it would also have to pass the 100 and 20-day SMAs, which are respectively located at 1.1219 and 1.1262.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders are still bearish with 51% of open short positions. However, it is a decrease by 2%, if compared to yesterday's 53%. In the meantime, pending orders in the 50-pip range are neutral, 100-pip range orders are 53% bullish.

 

[Anastasia DC]

GBP/USD attempts to regain some value

"It (Brexit risk) is becoming a much broader issue than just sterling weakness. What we're seeing is the still-rising UK exit risk playing out more in a global risk-off move."
- RBC Capital Markets (based on Business Recorder)

Pair's Outlook
Yesterday weak UK CPI data, as well as the concerns over the upcoming EU referendum, caused the GBP/USD currency pair to close with a 155-pip loss. The second support cluster, namely the monthly S2 and the weekly S1 just under the 1.42 major level, succeeded in limiting the losses. Demand at that area appears to be strong enough to even trigger a rebound today; technical indicators are somewhat bolstering that possibility, as they are no longer giving bearish signals in the daily timeframe. In case of a rally the closest resistance in face of the Bollinger band is likely to be pierced, opening the door to the price of 1.42 dollars.

Traders' Sentiment
Bulls grew in number over the day, as 65% of all open positions are now long. Meanwhile, there are 57% of orders to purchase the Sterling.

 

[Anastasia DC]

Yet again the Yen attempts to push the Buck below 106.00

"The yen is among the preferred safe havens at the moment, both because of its positive correlation with risk aversion and because it's geographically removed from the UK."
- Commonwealth Foreign Exchange (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook
The US Dollar appears to be reluctant to fall below the 106.00 major level, as most losses keep getting erased once the exchange rate approaches the May low of 105.55. Nevertheless, the Greenback now finds itself in front of the weekly S1, which is weighing on the currency by acting as the immediate resistance level. At the same time, the nearest support is still represented by the May low, as well as the weekly S2 and the lower Bollinger band. Technical indicators also suggest the USD/JPY pair is to weaken for the fourth time in a row, but the main drivers remain the FOMC meeting minutes and the Yen's safe haven status.

Traders' Sentiment
Today 72% of traders are long the US Dollar, whereas the majority of all pending orders are to sell it, taking up 63% of the market.

 

[Anastasia DC]

Gold marks a week of constant gains on Wednesday

"All institutional eyes are on the Brexit vote. In the short term, it's the main driver of gold-price discovery."
- Steward Thomson, Graceland Investment Management Inc. (based on Investing.com)

Pair's Outlook
The bullion scored gains for the fifth consecutive trading session on Tuesday, as it ended day's trading at 1,285.93. For comparison, the yellow metal was worth 1,243 on June 7. If this channel up movement continues, the metal will be at the 1,290 price today. However, it faces the weekly R1 at 1,289.03, and if this resistance is broken, the bullion would have a clear way north above the 1,300 mark, as the next resistance is at 1,305.22. Aggregate technical indicators forecast a continuation of the surge today.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders, after drastically increasing their short positions yesterday from 53% on Monday to 66% on Tuesday, have even more increased the short positions, as the number of open long positions is 72% on Wednesday morning.

 

[Anastasia DC]

EUR/USD fluctuates around 1.127 on Thursday

"It should point to a weaker dollar, and the thing is, now the next event is Brexit, so it's hard to see a lot of people fighting the moves that are now underway."
- RBS (based on CNBC)

Pair's Outlook
The European currency booked gains on Wednesday against the US Dollar, as it rebounded off the first weekly support at 1.1192. At the moment, the currency pair is at 1.1276, and it is struggling with the monthly PP at 1.1282, which is supported by additional resistance provided above by the weekly PP at 1.1304 and the 55-day SMA at 1.1310. If the exchange rate breaks through this resistance cluster, it will move upwards to the first weekly resistance at 1.1362. However, in case of a bounce off from the cluster, the rate will move down, where it will face the 100-day SMA at 1.1223.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have increased their bearish sentiment on Thursday morning, as 53% of open positions are now short, compared to 51% yesterday. 100-pip range pending orders have remained 53% bullish.

 

[Anastasia DC]

GBP/USD remains under pressure

"The GBP-USD may be faced with an uphill grind if it is to overcome the 1.4200 handle, especially with the referendum looming."
- OCBC Bank (based on PoundSterlingLive)

Pair's Outlook
The Sterling managed to partially recover from this week's losses yesterday, but despite the rally, the overall trend remains bearish until the EU referendum next week is over. As a result, the British Pound is likely to weaken against the US Dollar today, with the 1.41 major level remaining the main target. This level is also reinforced by the Bollinger band, the monthly S2 and the weekly S1, making demand around that area sufficient to prevent the pair from depreciating further. Technical indicators, on the other hand, retain mixed signals, unable to confirm the outlook.

Traders' Sentiment
Market sentiment barely changed over the day, as 64% of all open positions are now long (previously 65%). At the same time, the number of purchase orders in the 100-pip range edged down from 57 to 49%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

Gold passes the 1,300 mark on Wednesday

"After we caught the lows in late 2015 and early 2016 in the metals complex, the market has been acting quite bullish."
- ElliotWave Trader (based on Investing.com)

Pair's Outlook
The bullion is not stopping, and it has booked gains for the seventh consecutive trading session. At the moment, the yellow metal is at 1,302.44, which is just below the second weekly resistance at 1,305.22 and the 2015 high level of 1,307.07. If the bullion breaks through the resistance, there is nothing stopping it until the level of 1,332.35, where the weekly R3 is located. However, if the metal bounces off the resistance cluster provided by the two before mentioned levels, it might fall back to the level of the monthly R1 at 1,278.62.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders are still bearish with 68% of open positions being short. However, it is a decrease compared to yesterday's 72% of short positions.

 

[Anastasia DC]

EUR/USD continues to fluctuate around 1.125

"As widely expected, the Federal Reserve opted for the sidelines and held the benchmark rate at 0.25%, where it has been pegged since December 2015."
- Market Pulse (based on Investing.com)

Pair's Outlook
The European currency appreciated against the US Dollar on Thursday. With it, the pair continued this week's constant fluctuation around the 1.125 level between the monthly pivot point at 1.1282 and the first weekly support at 1.1192. Both sides were supported by additional supports and resistances. The monthly pivot point lead upside is also enforced by the weekly pivot point and 55-day SMA at 1.1304, and the support received reinforcement from the 100-day SMA at 1.1227. In the meantime, aggregate technical indicators predict an appreciation for the pair.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders are bearish on the currency pair, as 52% of open positions are short. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 54% long.

 

[Anastasia DC]

GBP/USD attempts to negate weekly losses

"The tight relationship between changes in betting odds and the exchange rate offers an attractive way to compute the impact on the exchange rate of the referendum outcome. It indicates sterling/dollar could well move to $1.30 given a "Leave" vote or $1.50 if "Remain" wins."
- SEB (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook
The Cable managed to erase intraday losses and trade flat on Thursday, amid two main opposing referendum groups suspending their campaigns. The main support area, represented by the Bollinger band, the monthly S2 and the weekly S1 was confirmed once more, suggesting that a drop below the 1.41 level is doubtful, at least for now. However, technical indicators insist the GBP/USD pair is to continue weakening today. With no solid fundamental impetus present, the Sterling has the potential to erase this week's losses completely, but only if the immediate resistance in face of the monthly S1 at 1.4288 gives in.

Traders' Sentiment
Although not as strong as yesterday, but market sentiment remains bullish at 62%. The share of buy orders increased from 49 to 57% today.

 

[Anastasia DC]

Gold stops its surge on Thursday

"The latest in the whipsaw that is the gold market sees the shiny rock moving higher again. Will it stick this time? Or will it pull another head fake and make a higher high only to give it up and fall back again? The boomerang market has been in full swing."
- Dragonfly Capital (based on Investing.com)

Pair's Outlook
The Yellow metal had surged for six consecutive trading sessions before it finally overheated and dropped. Amidst the Thursday's trading session, the metal climbed even above the level of 1,315, and the situation looked like it is about to reach the 1,330 mark. However, the commodity tumbled afterwards, fell below the monthly R1 at 1,278.62 and ended day's trading session at 1,276.85. Although at the start of Friday's session the bullion is on the rise again, and it has surged to 1,284. In addition the aggregate technical indicators predict a surge for the metal today and during the next week.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders are still majorly bearish on the yellow metal, as 70% of open positions are short. At the moment, it might indicate on a further surge, as the metal is oversold.

 

[Anastasia DC]

EUR/USD surges to 1.1378 on Monday

http://i.imgur.com/NskpaXM.png

"The two ways that this could potentially become systemic is that if the U.K. goes and if the U.K., Scotland will have a new referendum, maybe France or Finland or some other country in the euro will have a referendum. It could possibly lead to the end of the euro."
- Fidelity Investments (based on CNBC)

Pair's Outlook
The European currency scored gains against the US Dollar on Friday, as it moved from the level of 1.1232 to 1.1273 at the end of day's trading session. However, a much bigger surprise is the Monday's morning, as after the weekend, the currency pair has started the day's trading with an increase in value to 1.1329. In addition, since the start of the session, the currency exchange rate has gained even more and at the moment is at 1.1376. The Euro now face a new weekly R2 at 1.1408 against the US Dollar on Monday.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders are still bearish regarding the EUR/USD pair, as 53% of open positions are short. However, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 62% bullish.

 

[Anastasia DC]

GBP/USD continues to edge higher

"Sterling is back in favor today as markets seem to be dialing down their expectations that the UK is heading for the EU exit."
- ETX Capital (based on WBP Online)

Pair's Outlook
The Sterling regained the bullish momentum on Friday, as ‘Bremain' vote took the lead. The Cable not only climber over the 100-day SMA that day, but even opened with a rather serious bullish gap today. The British currency retained most of its strength due to the positive EU referendum polls, which could help the exchange rate stabilise above the 1.46 major level. In this case the pair will erase losses for the past two weeks. The weekly R2 is the level to limit the gains, while the upper border is located around 1.4692, represented by the 200-day SMA. Nevertheless, the Pound remains unstable ahead of the EU referendum, thus, the a possibility of the downside development exists.

Traders' Sentiment
There are 55% of traders holding long positions (previously 62%). At the same time, the share of sell orders increased from 43 to 56%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

USD/JPY risks falling back to 104.00

"If it breaks 100, Bank of Japan intervention is possible, but in order to intervene in the markets, you have to get agreement from the United States, and at this level -- 104, 105 -- I don't think the U.S. would agree."
- Eisuke Sakakibara, former Finance Ministry (based on Market Watch)

Pair's Outlook
The US Dollar failed to rebound against the Japanese Yen last Friday, but remained above the 104.00 psychological level. Furthermore, the pair opened with a small bullish gap today, suggesting that a drop below that mark is doubtful, although technical indicators imply otherwise. The weekly PP, which acts as the immediate resistance, is likely to prevent the Buck from advancing, therefore, a drop back towards the 104.00 level is expected to take place. In case the bears manage to push the Greenback even lower, the next target will be the 103.40 level, where the monthly S2 coincides with the Bollinger band.

Traders' Sentiment
Nearly three quarters (74%) of traders hold long positions today (previously 72%). Meanwhile, the number of purchase orders increased from 52 to 61%.