Daily Technical Analysis for Majors by Dukascopy

[Anastasia DC]

Gold reaches 1,325 level on Monday

"Funny how freedom confronts the artificiality of financial markets' levels, gold being at half its currency debasement value and the S&P 500 at double its earnings support. "God save the Queen..."."
- de Meadville International (based on Investing.com)

Pair's Outlook
As the bullion surged on Brexit vote results, it saw huge volatility by even reaching the 1,358 level at a certain point. However, the yellow metal closed the previous trading session at 1,315.73. With the start of a new week, on Monday, the metal started a new trading session and opened at 1,321.09. In addition, gold has been surging since the opening and remains highly volatile, as it touched the 1,335 level. At the moment, the commodity is trading at 1,325 by 7:15 GMT. In the meantime, aggregate technical indicators forecast a surge for the metal today.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders are bearish on the yellow metal, as 57% of open positions are short. However, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 100% long, which confirms the surge.

 

[Anastasia DC]

EUR/USD continues to recover after Brexit on Tuesday

"Tempting as it may be, now is not the time to pick bottoms in currencies and this is true for sterling, euro and even the yen."
- BK Asset Management (based on investing.com)

Pair's Outlook
After Brexit on Monday, the Euro started recovering against the US Dollar by appreciating from 1.1007 at the start of Monday's session to 1.1023 at the end of day's trading. On Tuesday morning the currency exchange rate is continuing yesterday's recovery, as by 5:00 GMT the pair has surged from 1.1023 to 1.1060. One of the main reasons for this surge is the correction of the Euro's value after the markets might have overreacted on the UK's referendum vote results.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have slightly decreased their bearish sentiment, as 52% of open positions are short, which is a 1% decrease, if compared to yesterday's 53%. In the meantime, short pending orders in the 100-pip range have increased from 53% to 56% overnight.

 

[Anastasia DC]

GBP/USD in limbo around June 24 low

"In the meantime the antipodes will likely outperform the GBP, but valuation concerns mean other safe havens like the USD and JPY will continue to outperform significantly."
- ANZ (based on FXStreet)

Pair's Outlook
Monday ended with the Sterling sustaining another loss against the US Dollar, but with the 1.3230 level, namely the post-Brexit's low, limiting the losses. The Cable remains weak, but a possibility of a rebound now exists, as technical indicators are giving mixed signals. Meanwhile, the Bollinger band acts as the closest resistance, located around 1.3445, but a surge much higher might also occur if the UK parliament decides to schedule a second EU referendum today. At the same time, any sharper downside developments should not exceed the 1.2942 level, where the weekly S1 is located.

Traders' Sentiment
There are slightly more long positions today (60%), compared to 56% on Monday. In the meantime, 54% of all pending orders are to purchase the British Pound (previously 48%).

 

[Anastasia DC]

USD/JPY struggles to preserve the wedge pattern

"The fallout from Brexit had held sway through yesterday's European and North American sessions, sending the pound even lower. But for now, the market is experiencing a lull in absence of fresh factors and dollar/yen appears to be holding out well."
- Societe Generale (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook
The USD/JPY currency pair almost fully negated early Monday's bearish gap yesterday, managing to return within the borders of the broadening falling wedge pattern. Technically, from this point on only more bullish momentum should follow, but that still might not be the case, as technical indicators in all timeframes retain bearish signals. As a result, the support line of the wedge might be pierced again, leaving the Bollinger band and the monthly S3 circa 101.30 to act as the second strong demand area. A breach lower would imply for the Buck to reach the 100 yen level, unless the 50.0% Fibo at 100.72 causes a rebound.

Traders' Sentiment
Market sentiment remains unchanged over the day, as 72% of traders still hold long positions. The portion of buy orders, on the other hand, edged ten percentage points lower down to 45%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

Gold stops the surge in Brexit aftermath on Tuesday

"To buy gold at these levels, you'd have to be betting that a lot more goes wrong and I'm really not sure that's going to be the case."
- Stifel (based on CNBC)

Pair's Outlook
After skyrocketing, as a safe investment, on UK referendum on European Union membership results, gold continued to surge on Monday. However, the yellow metal has changed its direction on Tuesday, as it declined from the levels around 1,325 to 1,315. The decline in the bullions value is most likely due to the aftermath of the Brexit shock, as market participants are starting to calm down and return to riskier investments. However, aggregate daily technical indicators forecast a surge for the metal for today.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have increased their long position count by 3%, as 46% of all open positions are long on Tuesday morning. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 71% short.

 

[Anastasia DC]

EUR/USD fluctuates around 1.1065 on Wednesday

"The market is pricing in a non-trivial probability of a Fed rate cut over the next couple of months. The Fed is really boxed in now, so the market doesn't even begin to price in any real chance of hikes until mid-2017."
- BMO Capital Markets (based on Bloomberg)

Pair's Outlook
The European currency surged from 1.1023 to 1.1062 on Tuesday against the US Dollar, as the Euro is slowly recovering after the huge drop it experienced on the results of the UK referendum on EU membership. At the moment, the currency exchange rate is fluctuating around the level of 1.1065, and it has already experienced volatility between the ranged of 1.1050 to 1.1080 today. The rate is most likely to struggle with the 200-day SMA at 1.1096.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have not changed their slightly bullish sentiment from yesterday, as 52% of all open positions are still short. In the meantime, short pending orders in the 100-pip range have increased from 56% to 66%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

Gold surges on Wednesday

"While European equity prices have suffered the effects of investors' uncertainty over the future of the EU, gold prices and other financial safe havens have benefited – and should continue – to benefit from it."
- Clif Droke (based on investing.com)

Pair's Outlook
Although, the market recovered on Tuesday from the Brexit induced shock last week, markets have returned to risk off sentiment on Wednesday, as, in the meantime, the yellow metal met the weekly pivot point at 1,307.95 and began to increase. The bullion started Wednesday's session at 1,310.24, and it has moved to 1,319.42 by 5:30 GMT. If the metal continues its northwards movement, it is bound to meet the monthly R2 at 1,343.10. In addition, daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a surge for the metal today.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have decreased their bearish sentiment, as 53% of open positions are short on Wednesday. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 70% long.

 

[Anastasia DC]

GBP/USD attempts to surge again

"The pound has enjoyed a welcome relief rally, as sentiment starts to stabilise in the wake of last week's surprise UK referendum vote outcome."
- CMC Markets (based on WBP Online)

Pair's Outlook
As was anticipated, the Sterling managed to rebound on Tuesday, unable to fall below the post-Brexit's low of 1.3230. Technically, the Pound is likely to continue edging higher today, as the 1.3230 mark is also reinforced by the lower Bollinger band. The Cable could keep appreciating until the 1.40 major level is reached, as there are no substantial resistances on the way to that area. Meanwhile, technical indicators retain mixed signals, unable to confirm the scenario. As a result, risks of the GBP/USD slumping back to 1.3320 or even lower persist.

Traders' Sentiment
Bulls slightly retreated, as 57% of all open positions are now long (previously 60%). At the same time, the number of purchase orders increased from 54 to 57% over the day.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY lacks impetus for solid gains

"The fallout from Brexit had held sway through yesterday's European and North American sessions, sending the pound even lower. But for now, the market is experiencing a lull in absence of fresh factors and dollar/yen appears to be holding out well."
- Societe Generale (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook
The USD/JPY currency pair remained flat yesterday, as bears were unable to hold the exchange rate below the weekly PP of 102.69. The pair is still stuck between the weekly PP and the monthly S2 today, with downside risks higher. However, according to technical studies, the Buck could remain relatively unchanged against the Japanese Yen for another day today. Ultimately, we should see a recovery take place, leading the exchange rate back towards the 109.00 major level, where the resistance trend-line of the current falling wedge pattern is located. Furthermore, an upside breakout would fully confirm the pattern.

Traders' Sentiment
Bulls keep losing numbers, as 64% of traders hold long positions today, compared to 66% on Wednesday. At the same time, three quarters (75%) of all pending orders are to purchase the Greenback.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD passes 1.11 mark on Wednesday

"The market is pricing in a non-trivial probability of a Fed rate cut over the next couple of months. The Fed is really boxed in now, so the market doesn't even begin to price in any real chance of hikes until mid-2017."
- BMO Capital Markets (based on Bloomberg)

Pair's Outlook
The European common currency surged on Wednesday from 1.1062 to 1.1124 at the end of day's trading against the US Dollar. This surge is a continuation of a recovery from the huge drop, which occurred after the results of the UK's referendum on membership in the European Union were published. However, Thursday morning the currency exchange rate has already dropped to 1.11 by 5:00 GMT. In addition, aggregate daily technical indicators forecast a continuation of Euro's depreciation against the US Dollar.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders are still bearish on the pair, as 53% of open positions are short. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 64% short.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD to continue climbing higher

"We see little to no relief for the pound in the foreseeable future which should remain under downward pressure, although it is unlikely to continue falling at such an alarming rate as during the initial Brexit shock phase. Heightened economic and political uncertainty in the UK will not ease in the near-term."
- Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi (based on WBP Online)

Pair's Outlook
The British currency keeps recovering after Brexit's plunge last week, with the Cable posting more gains on Wednesday. Not much has changed over the day, as technical indicators retaining mixed signals and no significant level support or resistance getting pierced. The June 24 low is now even more reinforced by the Bollinger band, suggesting that the exchange rate is unlikely to drop below the 1.32 major level even if bears take over the market. From above the nearest levels to limit the gains are located out of reach, with the closest one being the monthly S3 at 1.3851.

Traders' Sentiment
Bullish sentiment keeps weakening, as 54% of all open positions are long (previously 57%). Meanwhile, there are significantly more orders to acquire the Pound today, namely 68% (previously 57%).

 

[KristinaDC]

Gold fluctuates around 1,315 on Thursday

"While European equity prices have suffered the effects of investors' uncertainty over the future of the EU, gold prices and other financial safe havens have benefited – and should continue – to benefit from it."
- Clif Droke (based on investing.com)

Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal gained strength on Wednesday, as it surged from 1,310.21 to 1,319.06 by the end of day's trading session. At the start of Thursday, the bullion declined to 1,315.60 by 5:15 GMT. The metal has been slowly but steadily losing value this week, as the risk on sentiment returns in the aftermath of the British referendum on EU membership or Brexit, which turned out to indicate that a majority of UK voters want to leave the EU, and it made traders dump European currencies and surge to safe investments like gold.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have not changed their sentiment since yesterday at all, as 53% of open positions are still short, and pending orders in the 100-pip range are still 70% long.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD fluctuating around 1.11 mark on Friday

"With all the excitement over Brexit, the Federal Reserve has been on the back-burner. That could change next week, as we'll hear from Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Monday."
– Market Pulse (based on investing.com)

Pair's Outlook
The European currency experienced a three day rally against the Greenback after the Brexit vote results. However, during Thursday's trading session the pair declined slightly from 1.1124 to 1.1105 at the end of the day's session, after it was highly volatile during the time. On Friday morning, the Euro continued to depreciate against the Buck, as the currency exchange rate moved to 1.1097 by 5:00 GMT. This level is located exactly at the support provided by the 200- day SMA.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have not changed their sentiment from yesterday regarding the EUR/USD pair, as 53% of open positions are still bearish. However, pending orders in the 100-pip range have become 52% long compared to yesterday's 64% short.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY struggles to post more gains

"It's the market repricing expectations for the Fed and Fed hikes. The market is not pricing in any type of hiking scenario. What drives the dollar is expectations on relative growth and real interest rates."
- Citigroup (based on Bloomberg)

Pair's Outlook
On Thursday the US Dollar managed to appreciate against the Japanese Yen for the fourth consecutive time, but with gains barely exceeding 35 pips. Technical indicators are no longer giving bearish signals in the daily timeframe, suggesting that the Buck could prolong its recovery for another day. Moreover, even though volatility edged below the weekly PP of 102.69, the pair still failed to closed below that area this week; therefore, in case bears push the USD/JPY pair lower, the exchange rate will doubtfully fall beyond the weekly PP. Meanwhile, the nearest resistance rests around 104.70, represented by the monthly PP and the 20-day SMA.

Traders' Sentiment
There are 57% of traders being long the US Dollar today, while the share of buy orders inched down from 75 to 56%.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD in tight range between 1.32 and 1.35

"We expect the BoE to ease monetary policy further in the coming months, either through lowering interest rates and/or restarting QE, and/or expanding their 'Funding for Lending' scheme. Further BoE monetary easing should keep downward pressure on the pound through the rest of this year."
- Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UJF (based on Business Recorder)

Pair's Outlook
The British Pound failed to advance for the third day yesterday, but with the exchange rate stabilising above the 1.33 major level, after having put the immediate support cluster to the test. The Sterling is expected to remain between the 1.32 and 1.35 major levels, which are the borders of the Cable's current consolidation trend. Technical indicators are also in favour of the GBP/USD pair remaining relatively unchanged, as they retain mixed signals. The 1.3230 level, namely the post-referendum low, is still likely to be the lowest point where price can stabilise, while the 1.3440 mark is the potential upper border today.

Traders' Sentiment
There are 60% of traders holding long positions today (previously 54%) while the number of orders to buy the Sterling slid from 68 to 57%.

 

[KristinaDC]

Gold reaches new height of 1,330 on Friday

"While European equity prices have suffered the effects of investors' uncertainty over the future of the EU, gold prices and other financial safe havens have benefited – and should continue – to benefit from it."
-Clif Droke (based on investing.com)

Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal continued to surge on Thursday after booking gains on Wednesday. At the moment, on Friday the bullion already scored more than the previous day, as the metal has surged from 1,321.90 to 1,330.00 by 5:30 GMT. On its way northward, gold is not facing any resistance up to the level of 1,365.71, where the weekly R1 is located at. However, the metal might struggle with the upper Bollinger band, which is now at 1,342.33.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have not changed their positions regarding gold for the third consecutive trading session, as 53% of open positions are still bearish. However, long pending orders in the 100-pip range have decreased from 70% to 66%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

EUR/USD continues fluctuating around 1.11 level on Monday

"Both the Dollar Index and euro appear to be carving out a flag pattern. Flag patterns are usually continuation patterns. If valid, it would suggest that from a technical point of view, addition dollar gains are likely."
– Brown Brothers Harriman (based on investing.com)

Pair's Outlook
The US Dollar has been fluctuating around the 1.11 level against the Euro for the past three trading sessions. However, the general trend is a slow surge of the Greenback against the European common currency. The 1.11 level for the pair is located between the monthly pivot point from the upside at 1.1149 and a support cluster made up of the weekly pivot point and the 200-day SMA at 1.1092/1.1095. Daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a depreciation for the Buck against the Euro.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have increased their bearish stance, as 55% of open positions on Monday morning were short. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range have become also bearish, as 57% of orders are short.

 

[Anastasia DC]

GBP/USD risks falling below 1.32

"We believe the UK economy's well-documented fiscal and current account deficits, combined with the fact that GBP is not especially cheap, leave room for still more GBP weakness."
- Credit Suisse (based on PoundSterlingLive)

Pair's Outlook
Friday ended with the Cable remaining relatively unchanged, suffering a small loss, but unable to fall below the post-referendum low of 1.3230. Technically, the GBP/USD currency pair should now undergo a correction, at least partially erasing previous week's losses, thus, piercing the immediate resistance in face of the weekly PP; however, this might not be the case, since aggregate technical indicators are now giving bearish signals. As a result, the 1.3230 level risks being breached, with focus then shifting to the weekly S1 at 1.3090, the second closest support.

Traders' Sentiment
Bulls barely keep outnumbering the bears, as 56% of all open positions are now long (previously 60%). At the same time, the portion of orders to purchase the British Pound increased from 57 to 65%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

USD/JPY attempts to continue rising

"We will have much more global repercussions to all of this ... and, given the risk that global growth will slow, I don't think investors are going to move out of the yen in great numbers."
- Rabobank (based on Business Recorder)

Pair's Outlook
A period of risk-aversion on Friday caused the USD/JPY currency pair to lose more than 60 pips, but without any significant level getting breached. Technical studies retain mixed signals today as well, therefore, the Greenback is expected to be relatively calm during the day. The weekly PP at 102.46 is the closest support, just below the opening price, while the weekly R1 at 103.51 represents immediate resistance. The bullish development is more likely to occur, although more weakness could follow, leading the exchange rate to another retest of the trend-line at 101.53.

Traders' Sentiment
There are currently 52% of traders holding long positions, compared to 57% last Friday. Meanwhile, the share of buy orders added seven percentage points, having risen up to a total of 63%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

Gold reaches 1,350 level on Monday

"Gold broke out last week on Brexit while Silver waited a week to join the party. The miners, meanwhile cleared 2014 resistance on Friday. There were breakouts across the board in the precious metals space."
– based on thedailygold.com

Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal marks its fourth consecutive session of gains, as the metal reached the 1,350 level on Monday. However, the main surge happened Friday, as the commodity started the day's session at 1,322.13 and ended day's trading at 1,340.20. On Monday morning gold continued its rally and touched the first weekly resistance at 1,354.84. At the moment, the metal has retreated to the level of 1,345, as the weekly R1 managed to push the bullion back.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have increased their bearish sentiment from 47% the past three trading sessions to 57% on Monday. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 28% short.