Daily Technical Analysis for Majors by Dukascopy

[Anastasia DC]

EUR/USD moves lower on Tuesday

"EUR/USD wobbled in the post-Brexit week, but basically did not go too far. More PMIs as well as the postponed ECB meeting minutes are eyed."
– based on forexcrunch.com

Pair's Outlook
The Euro hit the resistance provided by the monthly pivot point at 1.1149 against the US Dollar, at the end of yesterday's trading. However, on Monday morning, the currency exchange rate has bounced off the resistance, as the pair moved to the level of 1.1129 by 5:30 GMT. If the rate continues a downfall, it will face a combined support of the 200-day SMA and weekly PP at 1.1092/94. A downward movement is also supported by the daily aggregate technical indicator forecast.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have not changed their sentiment at all, as they are still bearish with 55% of open positions being short. In addition, pending orders in the 100-pip range also remain unchanged at 57% of orders being short.

 

[Anastasia DC]

GBP/USD remains on the back foot

"We believe the UK economy's well-documented fiscal and current account deficits, combined with the fact that GBP is not especially cheap, leave room for still more GBP weakness."
- Credit Suisse (based on PoundSterlingLive)

Pair's Outlook
Even though the GBP/USD currency pair somewhat managed to rebound on Monday, it was still stuck between the 1.3230 level and the weekly PP at 1.3312. Technical indicators are giving bearish signals today, suggesting that a decline is due, but a lot depends on BoE Governor's speech today, as his statement could prompt another Sterling sell-off or trigger a buying spree. In either case the Pound is expected to leave its trading range, but with the bearish development most likely prevailing. Due to the breach of the 1.3230 level, the next support will be the weekly S1, located at 1.3090.

Traders' Sentiment
There are significantly more traders having a positive outlook towards the Cable today, as 68% of all open positions are long (previously 56%). The share of buy orders, however, slid from 65 to 55%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

USD/JPY on the edge of falling under 102.00

"We will have much more global repercussions to all of this ... and, given the risk that global growth will slow, I don't think investors are going to move out of the yen in great numbers."
- Rabobank (based on Business Recorder)

Pair's Outlook
Due to a bank holiday in the US and lack of market movers, the USD/JPY currency pair remained almost completely unchanged yesterday. However, the situation is expected to change today, even though technical indicators keep giving mixed signals in the daily and the weekly timeframes. The risk-off sentiment is also present on the markets, therefore, providing the Yen with a small boost, but sufficient to cause the Greenback to pierce the immediate support, namely the weekly PP at 102.46. Consequently, the pair could put the eight-month support line to the test, which in turn is reinforced by the weekly S1.

Traders' Sentiment
Market sentiment gradually improved over the day, as 73% of traders hold long positions today (previously 52%). At the same time, the number of orders to sell the Buck increased from 37 to 63%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

Gold stops the surge on Tuesday

"The yellow metal is being buoyed by the persistent uncertainty surrounding the Brexit vote, as well as underlying global growth and price risks."
- based on usagold.com

Pair's Outlook
The bullion stopped its four consecutive trading session surge on Tuesday, as the metal dropped from the previous day closing height of 1,350.80 on Monday. At the moment, gold is trading at 1,342 by 5:45 GMT. The main reason for such drop is that amidst yesterday's trading sessions volatility the yellow metal touched the resistance put up by the weekly R1 at 1,354.84. If the metal continues its downward movement, it is likely to move lower to the weekly pivot point at 1,330.15. However, daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a surge for the bullion today.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders are still bearish on the metal, as 58% of open positions are short, which is by one percent more than yesterday. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 66% long.

 

[Anastasia DC]

EUR/USD below 1.11 on Wednesday

"For the past week, EUR/USD was a big beneficiary of anti-U.K. flows but on Tuesday we finally saw the currency buckle under the weight of U.S dollar strength and risk aversion."
- BK Asset Management (based on investing.com)

Pair's Outlook
The European stopped the past three session fluctuation around 1.11 level and dropped to 1.1073 on Tuesday against the US Dollar. As the drop happened, the pair went past the support cluster made up of the 200-day SMA and weekly PP at 1.1093 and 1.1092 respectively. At the moment, the currency exchange rate is trading at 1.1055 by 5:15 GMT, and it is moving towards the weekly S1 at 1.1015. If the pair drops through the next support level, it will go down to the next support cluster of 1.0893/69, where the weekly S2 and monthly S1 are located.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have shifted their sentiment and become bullish on the pair, as 52% of open positions are long on Wednesday morning. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 64% short.

 

[Anastasia DC]

GBP/USD risks sustaining sharper losses

"The consequences of Brexit have put a summer UK interest rate cut squarely on the table, exacerbating negative sentiment toward UK-based assets."
- Western Union Business Solutions (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook
Due to BoE governor's statement on Tuesday the Sterling weakened substantially, breaching the 1.3230 support level and slumping down to the 1.30 major level. Even though technical indicators are giving mixed signals today, the Cable remains subject to more weakness. The weekly S2 at 1.2899 is the closest support today, but a much stronger cluster is located around 1.2660, represented by the weekly S3, the monthly S1 and the Bollinger band. However, we should not rule out the possibility of the Pound regaining the bullish momentum, amid a dovish Fed statement, which is scheduled for today.

Traders' Sentiment
There are 66% of all open positions being long today (previously 68%), while the number of orders to sell the Pound edged higher from 45 to 71%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

USD/JPY attempts to preserve the trend-line

"The dollar is less owned -- or over-owned -- than the yen as a safe-haven currency, and given that this issue of Brexit will be with us for more weeks and months, there's a natural demand. We used to be proponents of a weaker dollar. For the next three months this could change massively."
- Julius Baer (based on Bloomberg)

Pair's Outlook
As was anticipated, the risk-off sentiment drove the USD/JPY currency pair lower on Tuesday, putting the eight-month support line to the test. The Greenback now risks breaking this trend-line if more weakness persists, despite the support line being reinforced by the weekly S1. Another tough support cluster is located around 100.60, namely the 50.0% Fibo, the Bollinger band and the weekly S2. On the other hand, technical indicators are giving bullish signals, suggesting that the US Dollar is to appreciate against the Yen. In this case the closest area to limit the gains is the weekly PP at 102.46.

Traders' Sentiment
Nearly three quarters (74%) of traders are long the Buck today, compared to 73% yesterday. Meanwhile, the share of buy orders skyrocketed from 37 to 77%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

Gold ignores initial downfall and surges on Tuesday

"The yellow metal is being buoyed by the persistent uncertainty surrounding the Brexit vote, as well as underlying global growth and price risks."
– based on usagold.com

Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal initially moved downwards on Tuesday morning. However, after falling down to the level of 1,338.08 the metal rebounded and closed the day right at the first weekly resistance at 1,354.84. At the start of Wednesday's trading gold opened just above the weekly R1, and it surged by reaching the weekly R2 at 1,369.17 by 5:30 GMT. At the moment, the bullion is struggling with the resistance. In addition, daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a surge for the metal today.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders during the night have not changed their sentiment regarding the yellow metal, as traders are still bearish with 58% of open positions being short. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range have slightly moved to the bearish side, as 64% of open positions are long on Wednesday, compared to 66% on Tuesday.

 

[Anastasia DC]

EUR/USD unchanged on Thursday

"The euro was trimming today's losses and was trading flattish around $1.1070 during the London session, having printed daily lows at $1.1040 during the Asian session.
- based on WBP Online

Pair's Outlook
The common European currency remains unchanged against the US Dollar on Thursday, as it was at 1.1099 by 5:00 GMT. The currency exchange rate fell on Tuesday, and it recouped some of its losses on Wednesday. As the pair surged on Wednesday, it went past the resistance provided by the 200-day SMA and weekly PP at 1.1092. In the meantime, daily aggregate technical indicators forecast that the EUR/USD pair will trade lower by the end of the day's trading.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX trader sentiment has remain unchanged over the past 24 hours, as 52% of open positions are long. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 63% short, as traders generally expect a fall of the pair.

 

[Anastasia DC]

GBP/USD attempts to erase some previous losses

"In that sense, it might be argued the pound's latest decline has been a Goldilocks depreciation – not too big and not too small, but provided that occurs in a relatively orderly manner, and that the MPC is prepared to look through the inflationary consequences as it did after 2008, it should not be anything to fear."
- Capital Economics (based on PoundSterlingLive)

Pair's Outlook
The Pound remained under pressure on Wednesday, having edged lower, with volatility stretching out to the 1.28 mark. Nevertheless, the immediate support level, namely the weekly S2 at 1.2899, was preserved, suggesting that the Sterling could undergo a small correction today. In case bulls take over the market, gains are expected to be limited by the 1.31 major level, also reinforced by the weekly S1. At the same time, a breach of the immediate support is likely to open the door for sharper losses, with the second support area located only around 1.2630, represented by the weekly S3, the monthly S1 and the Bollinger band.

Traders' Sentiment
Today 65% of traders hold long positions (previously 66%), while the portion of sell orders inched down from 71 to 65%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

USD/JPY: downside risks keep rising

"Price action in USD/JPY post the Brexit slump has been horrible and a lack of verbal intervention on the drop to 100 has not helped either, it looks like the market is set to continue to test the BoJ's resolve and a move below ¥100 is just a matter of time."
- Westpac (based on WBP Online)

Pair's Outlook
In spite of the USD/JPY nearly reaching the 100.00 level again yesterday, the pair managed to preserve the broadening falling wedge's support line. Technically, we should see the Greenback recover today, as there is no room for another decline without breaching the trend-line. However, technical studies are no longer giving bullish signals, thus, downside risks cannot be ignored, with the final obstacle around 100.50 failing to keep the US Dollar at bay before the 100.00 mark is reached. On the other hand, the given pair retains the potential to recover and retest the weekly PP at 102.46 in the wake of possible strong fundamental data today.

Traders' Sentiment
Bullish traders' sentiment remains unchanged at 74%, but the number of purchase orders slightly declined, namely from 77 to 71%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

Gold continues to surge on Thursday

"The yellow metal is being buoyed by the persistent uncertainty surrounding the Brexit vote, as well as underlying global growth and price risks."
– based on usagold.com

Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal marked its sixth consecutive session of gains on Wednesday, as after a highly volatile trading session, the metal ended day's trading at 1,363.35. On Thursday the bullion continued its surge, and it was trading at 1,367.70 by 5:15 GMT. At the moment, the metal has been testing the weekly R2 at 1,369.17 since yesterday, and, if the newly established upward trend continues, it is set to break past this resistance. In the meantime, daily aggregate technical indicators also indicate on a surge of gold today.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have not changed their positions for three days now, as on Thursday 58% of open positions were short. However, pending orders in the 100-pip range are still long, as 61% of orders are long.

 

[Anastasia DC]

GBP/USD muted ahead of US NFP data

"We expect GBPUSD to trade down to 1.20 by the end of this year. The risks to our forecast are currently skewed to a further—and faster—decline."
- TD Securities (based on FXStreet)

Pair's Outlook
The GBP/USD currency pair's trade was rather subdued on Thursday, with the bearish momentum ultimately prevailing. However, the immediate support in face of the weekly S2 remained intact, preventing the Pound from sustaining sharper losses for the second day, indicating that a possible rebound could occur today. A lot depends on the US fundamental data; in case it turns into Sterling's favour, the pair is expected to retest the 1.32 mark. On the other hand, the Buck could continue strengthening, leading the Pound further down towards the 1.2640, where the weekly S3 and the monthly S1 form a strong support area.

Traders' Sentiment
Bulls remain strong, taking up 63% of the market (previously 65%). All pending orders are equally divided between the buy and the sell ones.

 

[Anastasia DC]

USD/JPY under the risk of breaking the 100.00 barrier

"Price action in USD/JPY post the Brexit slump has been horrible and a lack of verbal intervention on the drop to 100 has not helped either, it looks like the market is set to continue to test the BoJ's resolve and a move below ¥100 is just a matter of time."
- Westpac (based on WBP Online)

Pair's Outlook
The American Dollar was unable to outperform the Yen on Thursday, which led to a 55-pip drop in the Buck's value. Moreover, the support line of the broadening falling wedge pattern was pierced yesterday, indicating that more bearish momentum is to come. Today's NFP data could provide the required impetus for another downside development, causing the US Dollar to fall below 100 yen. Although there is a group of supports below that area, risks of even sharper losses are present. Meanwhile, technical indicators are unable to confirm the scenario, thus, the overwhelmingly strong Yen could also begin to weaken.

Traders' Sentiment
Bullish traders' sentiment returned to its Tuesday's level of 73%, while the portion of buy orders lost 20% points, having fallen down to 51%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

Gold stops the surge on Thursday

"It is a triangle configuration . Market should break either side. Acceleration should occur above 1370.833740 or under 1350.926270 limits."
- based on Realtime Forex

Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal stopped its six consecutive trading session surge on Thursday, as the metal dropped from 1,363.66 at the start of Thursday's trading session to 1,360.94 at the end of day's trading. In addition, the bullion continues to drop on Friday, as it opened today's session at 1,359.40, and was trading at 1,357.70 by 5:00 GMT. In the meantime, aggregate technical indicators forecast a surge for the metal today and no changes for the next week.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have decreased their bearish sentiment on Friday, as 55% of open positions are short compared to yesterday's 58%. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 68% long.

 

[Anastasia DC]

EUR/USD falls to 1.1050 on Friday

http://i.imgur.com/Xo099ZZ.png

"The first full week of July was a middling one for the Euro, with no clear differentiation in performance among the typical high yielding-low yielding/risk-funding currency fault lines"
– Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist (based on Daily FX)

Pair's Outlook
The Euro started Friday's trading session against the US Dollar at 1.1060, and the currency exchange rate was volatile between the levels of 1.1120 to 1.1002 during the session, until it ended day's trading at 1.1050. At the moment, the European currency against the Greenback is almost unchanged, as it was trading at 1.1051 by 4:45 GMT. Daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a continuation of the Euro's depreciation against the Buck today.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have shifted their sentiment and become bearish, as 52% of open positions are short on Monday morning. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 73% short.

 

[Anastasia DC]

GBP/USD keeps hovering above 1.29

"The GBP remains under pressure and the currency lost 406 pips last week. Trading the GBP pairs is going to be 'relatively' easy. We wait for retracements and we go short with a preference for the GBP/USD and GBP/AUD."
- Forextell (based on PoundSterlingLive)

Pair's Outlook
The Sterling managed to regain some value against the US Dollar on Friday, having edged 47 pips higher that day. However, compared to the previous movements the pair remained relatively unchanged, unable to reach any significant level. The outlook is unchanged, as there is no impetus for serious developments present today. Meanwhile, technical indicators are giving bearish signals, suggesting the GBP/USD pair could gravitate back towards the 1.29 mark, rather than remaining unchanged again. The nearest area to limit the gains rests at 1.3033, namely the weekly PP, whereas the weekly S1 represents immediate support at 1.2724.

Traders' Sentiment
Now 65% of traders are long the Pound (previously 63%), while the number of sell orders inched up from 50 to 58%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

USD/JPY surges amid risk-appetite

"We still see the yen appreciating in the medium to long term, but for the moment we see the market focusing on Bank of Japan's policy and Japan's fiscal stimulus plans now that the Japanese elections are over."
- Barclays (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook
The Greenback was rather volatile following the NFP data release on Friday, ending the week with a fifth consecutive day of declines, but unable to fall below the 100.00 level against the Yen. Risk-on sentiment appears to have returned to the markets today, providing the US currency with an early boost and an opportunity to reclaim the 101.00 major level. However, in order for the Buck to stabilise higher, it is required to pierce the weekly PP at 101.13. We reckon a retake of the 101.50 mark is also possible, even though technical indicators are giving bearish signals today.

Traders' Sentiment
There are three quarters (75%) of all open positions being long today (previously 73%). At the same time, there are significantly more orders to sell the US Dollar, namely 68% of them, compared to 49% on Friday.

 

[Anastasia DC]

Gold resumes to surge on Friday

"Precious metals are also doing very, very well along with miners. There really isn't a lot to say with everything acting very orderly this past week and looking to continue that trend."
- Warren Bevan (based on investing.com)

Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal saw much volatility during Friday's trading session, as the metal fluctuated between the levels of 1,335.35 and 1,370.38. However, it managed to surge from 1,359.10 at the start of day's trading to 1,365.66 at the end of weeks trading. On Monday morning the yellow metal started this week's higher at 1,367.75, although it had fallen to 1,363.71 by 5:00 GMT. In the meantime, daily aggregate technical indicators predict a surge for gold. Although, the weekly forecast predicts no change for the metal this week.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have increased their bearish sentiment, as 66% of open positions were short at the start of the new week. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 65% long.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD gains on Monday

"The bulls have the advantage of the chart being at the bottom of a 6 month trading range. When a market is near the bottom of a trading range, there is an 80% chance that it will continue sideways or start to go up."
– Al Brooks (based on Brooks Price Action)

Pair's Outlook
The Euro appreciated against the US Dollar on Monday, as it surged from 1.1045 at the start of Monday's trading session to 1.1056 at the end of the day. At the moment, the currency exchange rate has surged on Tuesday morning, as it is at 1.1077, which is just below the resistance put up by the weekly pivot point at 1.1079 and the 200-day SMA at 1.1091. However, the past seven session trend line is also located at around the level of the weekly PP. In addition, there are no supports below, which could stop the rate after it bounces off the resistance cluster.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders remain bearish on the pair, as 53% of open positions are short on Tuesday morning. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 67% bearish.