Daily Technical Analysis for Majors by Dukascopy

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD struggles to post more gains

"The GBP remains under pressure and the currency lost 406 pips last week. Trading the GBP pairs is going to be 'relatively' easy. We wait for retracements and we go short with a preference for the GBP/USD and GBP/AUD."
- Forextell (based on PoundSterlingLive)

Pair's Outlook
On Monday the GBP/USD currency pair recovered from its intraday low and edged higher, barely managing to climb over the 1.30 major level, but unable to pierce the immediate resistance in face of the weekly PP. The Cable is expected to continue making its way up ever since it put the 1.29 mark to the test, ignoring the nearest resistance, with the next target being the weekly R1 at 1.3267. Technical studies, on the other hand, suggest the Pound is to fall back down, in which case the psychological 1.29 mark is likely to provide support. Sharper losses are to be limited by the demand level at 1.2724, but a drop that low is unlikely to occur today.

Traders' Sentiment
Today 64% of traders are long the Sterling, but the portion of sell orders increased significantly, namely from 58 to 74%.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY attempts to surge further up

"Expectations of large fiscal stimulus following Abe's big election win is behind the weakness in the yen."
- Australia & New Zealand Banking Group (based on Business Recorder)

Pair's Outlook
In the wake of a weaker Yen the USD/JPY currency pair surged more than 200 pips yesterday, providing a solid confirmation of a six-month trend-line. The US Dollar is now likely to continue outperforming the Japanese currency, retaining Monday's momentum. The 20-day SMA is the closest resistance, but the exchange rate has the potential to climb over the 104.00 major level, where the weekly R2 coincides with the monthly PP. However, we should not rule out the possibility of the pair undergoing a corrective decline, as technical indicators are giving unable to confirm the positive outlook. In this case the weekly R1 at 102.26 will be the nearest level to limit the losses.

Traders' Sentiment
Although not as strong as yesterday, but market sentiment remains bullish at 68%. The share of buy orders inched up from 32 to 61%.

 

[KristinaDC]

Gold falls to 1,354 on Monday

"As prices trend toward Friday's low at $1,335.33, traders should continue to monitor short term momentum for a potential breakout."
– Walker England, Forex Trading Instructor (based on Daily FX)

Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal fell on Monday, as it started day's trading session at 1,367.53 and ended Monday's trading at 1,354.86. Although, it was the fourth consecutive session, when the bullion had reached above the 1,370 level, it seems to have finally rebounded, as the metal is now trading below the weekly PP at 1,358.76. If gold moves lower, it is set to meet the weekly S1 at 1,342.44, against which it might rebound and continue its streak of gains.

Traders' Sentiment
Traders are majorly bearish on gold, as 65% of open SWFX positions on Tuesday morning are short. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 62% long.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD unchanged on Tuesday

"Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Consolidation pattern from 1.0911 could extend with another recovery."
– based on Action Forex

Pair's Outlook
The Euro against the US Dollar pair was volatile during Tuesday's session, as midday it jumped above the resistance cluster made up of weekly PP at 1.1079 and 200-day SMA at 1.1090. However, the pair closed the day's trading session at 1.1060, which is not far from where it started it at 1.1056. On Wednesday morning the currency exchange rate remains almost flat, as it has moved only three pips up, which is from the opening rate of 1.1060 to 1.1064 by 5:00 GMT. If the pair continues to move upwards, it is bound to test again the previously mentioned resistance cluster.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have not changed their sentiment on Wednesday, as 53% of open positions remain short. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 63% short.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD attempts to establish a fresh one-week high

"The GBP remains under pressure and the currency lost 406 pips last week. Trading the GBP pairs is going to be 'relatively' easy. We wait for retracements and we go short with a preference for the GBP/USD and GBP/AUD."
- Forextell (based on PoundSterlingLive)

Pair's Outlook
The Sterling almost fully erased previous week's losses yesterday, but the second resistance level, namely the weekly R1, limited the gains. Today the weekly R1 acts as the immediate resistance, which could reverse the bullish momentum, causing the British Pound to return to the weekly PP at 1.3033, as technical indicators in the daily and the weekly timeframes suggest. On the other hand, we could see another rally take place ahead of the BoE's interest rate decision tomorrow, when the Cable is expected to weaken substantially. Further gains are unlikely to exceed the 1.3430 area, despite the second nearest resistance located around the 1.36 mark.

Traders' Sentiment
There are 60% of traders with a positive outlook towards the Cable today, while the share of sell orders remains unchanged at 74%.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY makes a U-turn

"There has been some profit-taking by people who were yen-short, and that led the yen to rise today."
- Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook
The USD/JPY currency pair continued to appreciate on Tuesday, easily piercing the second resistance area and even putting the third level to the test. However, the Yen received a boost earlier today, with the bearish trend regaining dominance. The pair is now likely to ignore the nearest support cluster, represented by the monthly PP and the weekly R2, and negate the most part of yesterday's gains. Technical indicators support this scenario, as they are now giving bearish signals in the daily timeframe. The 20-day SMA around 103.10 is the level to limit the losses, although a drop lower is not out of the question.

Traders' Sentiment
Today 63% of all open positions are long, compared to 68% of Tuesday. Meanwhile. The portion of buy orders dropped again, namely from 61 to 44% over the past 24 hours.

 

[KristinaDC]

Gold suffers losses on Tuesday

"Theresa May was chosen the new Conservative Party leader on Monday. She will become Prime Minister on Wednesday evening. The lack of a prolonged period of transition in the UK's is negative for the gold market."
– Sunshine Profits (based on investing.com)

Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal marked its second consecutive session of losses on Tuesday, as it fell from 1,355.19 at the start of day's trading to 1,331.66 at the end of Tuesday's trading. In addition, this fall went right through the support provided by the weekly S1 at 1,342.44. However, on Wednesday morning, the bullion has surged a little bit on Wednesday morning, as the metal started the session at 1,332.70, and it has slowly moved towards 1,337.14 mark by 5:00 GMT. In addition, daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a surge for the bullion for today.

Traders' Sentiment
Traders have decreased their bearish sentiment on Wednesday, as 59% of SWFX traders are short on the yellow metal, compared to 65% on Tuesday. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 71% long.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD surges to 1.1090 on Wednesday

"Nothing has changed on the daily chart of the EUR/USD forex market. It is still in its month-long trading range after what was probably an exhaustive sell climax."
– based on Brooks Price Action

Pair's Outlook
The Euro surged marked a session of gains against the US Dollar on Wednesday, as the currency exchange rate increased from 1.1059 at the start of day's trading to 1.1090 at the end of the day. The pair passed the weekly pivot point at 1.1079, and it stopped exactly at the 200-day simple moving average. Thursday morning, the rate is continuing to move higher, as it reached 1.1108 mark by 4:45 GMT. On the way up, the exchange rate is set to move to the monthly PP at 1.1149. However, the 20-day SMA at 1.1128 will likely show some resistance to the pair.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders continue to be bearish on Thursday, as 54% of open positions are short. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 56% short.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD waits patiently for the BoE's decision

"We think the pound's rally will run out of steam once investors learn that the economy is likely to slow down from the investment side, weakening employment and then finally consumption."
- Morgan Stanley (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook
The British Pound weakened against the US Dollar on Wednesday, ultimately closing with a 99-pip loss over the day, but without the immediate support area being reached. Today risks are still skewed to the downside, as the BoE is expected to cut its interest rate by half, which is considered to be negative for the UK currency. As a result, the Cable could fall back towards the 1.2855 level, where the one-year support line is located. Technical indicators are in favour of this outcome, but volatility could even stretch out further, namely towards the 1.26 major level. On the other hand, a surprise of leaving the rates unchanged would only prolong the Sterling's bullish momentum.

Traders' Sentiment
Bullish traders' sentiment returned to its Tuesday's level of 64%, while the portion of sell orders slumped from 74 to 52%.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY remains on the back foot

"Stimulus expectations are behind the yen's decline, but the biggest factor is the firmness in stocks. Global improvement in risk sentiment also drove yen weakness. But the yen's uptrend remains as markets lack sufficient material to justify that the trend has reversed."
- Ueda Harlow (based on Business Recorder)

Pair's Outlook
Neither the immediate resistance nor the support areas were pierced yesterday, with the Greenback ultimately remaining relatively unchanged against the Yen. Although the Buck failed to make a solid U-turn, more bearish momentum could still follow today, as the overall trend remains bearish until the key resistance area around 109.00 is breached. Meanwhile, technical indicators are giving bearish signals, also suggesting the USD/JPY currency pair is to suffer a loss today. The main target below currently is the 20-day SMA around 103.14, but it is uncertain whether there is sufficient impetus for a strong decline below 114.00.

Traders' Sentiment
Bulls keep losing numbers, as 61% of all open positions are now long (previously 63%). The share of buy orders edged up from 44 to 59%.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY remains on the back foot

"Stimulus expectations are behind the yen's decline, but the biggest factor is the firmness in stocks. Global improvement in risk sentiment also drove yen weakness. But the yen's uptrend remains as markets lack sufficient material to justify that the trend has reversed."
- Ueda Harlow (based on Business Recorder)

Pair's Outlook
Neither the immediate resistance nor the support areas were pierced yesterday, with the Greenback ultimately remaining relatively unchanged against the Yen. Although the Buck failed to make a solid U-turn, more bearish momentum could still follow today, as the overall trend remains bearish until the key resistance area around 109.00 is breached. Meanwhile, technical indicators are giving bearish signals, also suggesting the USD/JPY currency pair is to suffer a loss today. The main target below currently is the 20-day SMA around 103.14, but it is uncertain whether there is sufficient impetus for a strong decline below 114.00.

Traders' Sentiment
Bulls keep losing numbers, as 61% of all open positions are now long (previously 63%). The share of buy orders edged up from 44 to 59%.

 

[KristinaDC]

Gold regains losses on Wednesday

"A multi-decade rise in gold stocks versus all other assets is likely beginning. Institutional money managers are buying on days of strength, weakness, and sideways price action!"
– Steward Thomson (based on investing.com)

Pair's Outlook
After falling on Tuesday, the yellow metal rebounded on Wednesday, as, after reaching the weekly low level of 1,331.66, the metal surged to 1,342.44, where it met with resistance put up by the weekly S1 exactly at that point. On Thursday morning, the commodity has bounced off the weekly S1, and it has dropped to 1,337.20 level by 5:00 GMT. From the lower side, the metal faces the 20-day SMA at 1,325.53 and the weekly S2 at 1,319.10. In the meantime, daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a surge for gold today.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders are still short on the yellow metal, as 58% of open positions are bearish. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 68% long.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD surges for fifth consecutive session

"With more and more assets providing negative yield, the ECB has less assets to buy in its 80 billion euro QE program. This spells trouble for Draghi."
– based on Forex Crunch

Pair's Outlook
Fully ignoring all aggregate technical indicators, which kept forecasting a decline, the Euro has been appreciating against the US Dollar the whole week, as it starts Friday's session with more gains against the Buck. In addition, the common European currency touched and for a moment went past the resistance cluster located above it, which consists of the monthly PP at 1.1119 and weekly R1 at 1.1157, as on Thursday the currency exchange rate at one moment was at 1.1164. However, daily aggregate technical indicators forecast no changes for the pair today.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders are still bearish on the pair, as 55% of open positions are short. In the meantime, pending orders are also bearish, as 58% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are short.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD attempts to surge further

"We think the pound's rally will run out of steam once investors learn that the economy is likely to slow down from the investment side, weakening employment and then finally consumption."

- Morgan Stanley (based on Reuters)


Pair's Outlook

Yesterday the BoE unexpectedly left its interest rate unchanged, thus, boosting the British currency. Nevertheless, the Sterling was unable to stabilise above the 1.3430 mark, but still managed to overcome the immediate resistance in face of the weekly R1. Today the Cable finds itself between the weekly R1 as the nearest support and a resistance cluster, formed by the 20-day SMA and the weekly R2 around 1.3550. Another rally would cause the pair to retake the 1.3430 mark, but technical indicators are no longer giving bullish signals, suggesting that a possibility of a decline exists. The Pound now risks falling back under the 1.32 major level in wake of upcoming strong US fundamentals.


Traders' Sentiment

Bulls lost some numbers, as only 57% of traders are long the Sterling (previously 64%). The share of sell orders increased from 52 to 63%.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY in limbo ahead of fundamental data

"We expect USD/JPY to oscillate within a USD/JPY100 to 105 range in the months ahead."
- Rabobank (based on FXStreet)

Pair's Outlook
The US Dollar succeeded in outperforming the Japanese Yen for another day on Thursday, having retaken the 105.00 major level. The USD/JPY currency pair could now post more gains, as technical indicators are giving mixed signals, rather than bearish, like yesterday. However, the main picture is to be drawn by the US fundamental data today, as poor figures might also cause the Greenback to weaken and, thus, to retreat below 104.00. Moreover, there is a strong resistance cluster, located around 106.50, which is likely to prevent the pair from edging significantly higher.

Traders' Sentiment
For the fifth day this week the share of bulls inched down. There are now 57% of traders being long the Buck (previously 61). At the same time, the portion of sell orders surged from 41 to 70%.

 

[KristinaDC]

Gold drops on Thursday

"Brexit anxiety continues to support precious metals, increasing demand for safe-haven assets like silver and gold."
– based on Mayzus Investment Company Ltd.

Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal fell during this week, as it declined from Monday's height of 1,367.64 and touched the support at 1,319.10 on Thursday. However, the bullion ended Thursday's trading at 1,334.77. At the moment, the metal continues to decline, as by 5:30 GMT it was trading at 1,333.20. On its way down, the commodity will again struggle with support provided first by the 20-day SMA and afterwards the weekly S2 at 1,319.10. Meanwhile, daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a surge for gold today.

Traders' Sentiment
Traders remain bearish on the pair, as 44% of open positions are short. However, pending orders in the 100-pip range are long, as 73% of them are buy orders.

 

[Anastasia DC]

EUR/USD falls to 1.1028 on Friday

"We are essentially bouncing between the 1.10 level on the bottom, and the 1.12 level on the top."
– based on FX Empire

Pair's Outlook
The Euro surged against the US Dollar for the four upcoming session before Friday, as the currency exchange rate had gradually climbed from 1.1044 to 1.1116. However, on Friday after an initial surge the pair fell from the reached high to 1.1028, which this month new low. Although, on Monday, the exchange rate started day's trading at 1.1044, and it has climbed to 1.1065 by 5:00 GMT. At the moment, the pair is just below the newly established weekly PP at 1.1070, and it is most likely to struggle with it, as the pivot point provides resistance.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders continue to be bearish on the EUR/USD pair, as 53% of open positions are short. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 67% short.

 

[Anastasia DC]

Gold almost unchanged on Friday

"Gold prices are under pressure as risk appetite swells at the start of the trading week. The chipper mood is weighing on bond prices, offering support to yields and undermining support for anti-fiat assets."
– based on Daily FX

Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal saw some volatility on Friday, however, it did not change much during Friday's trading session, as the metal started day's trading at 1,336.50 and ended it at 1,335.12. With the start of the new week the bullion is losing value, as it started Monday's trading at 1,333.04 and fell to 1,328.22 by 5:15 GMT. If the metal continues to fall, it is set to meet the first weekly support at 1,312.88, and below this support there are no other major support line until the monthly PP at 1,295.11. However, daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a surge for gold today.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders continue their bearish sentiment on Monday, as 55% of open gold positions are short. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 68% long, which indicates at a possible upcoming surge.

 

[Anastasia DC]

GBP/USD in limbo around 1.32

"This could be a pound-negative, this sort of political uncertainty about what Brexit will look like. We still expect the Bank of England to ease monetary policy further, and that's a negative. More importantly, the U.K. is running a very large account deficit."
- Petr Krpata, ING Groep NV (based on Bloomberg)

Pair's Outlook
As was anticipated, the British currency weakened against the US Dollar on Friday, but failed to find support at the 1.32 mark, with the exchange rate slightly crossing that level. The Pound could attempt to regain some value and close above that major level again today, as the weekly PP is providing immediate support just below the opening price. In this case gains are unlikely to exceed the 1.3350 level, due to lack of impetus today. On the other hand, technical indicators are now giving bearish signals, suggesting the Cable might fall down towards the 1.31 area.

Traders' Sentiment
Today 59% of traders retain a positive outlook towards the GBP/USD pair, compared to 57% on Friday. However, a large number of all pending orders are to sell the Sterling, namely 65% of them.

 

[Anastasia DC]

USD/JPY in tight range between 104.50 and 106.50

"Anticipation of a massive stimulus package continues to drive investor sentiment and the ensuing divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and BoJ continues to weigh on the yen."
- OANDA (based on Business Recorder)

Pair's Outlook
At the end of last week the US Dollar appreciated against the Yen in wake of strong US fundamental data, but ultimately erased all gains, as supply, represented by the immediate resistance cluster, was too tough to pierce. The same area keeps providing resistance today, thus, any upside development is expected to be limited around 106.50. Technical indicators are also in favour of the bullish outcome, but another decline is quote possible, with the lower border being the monthly PP at 104.36 and the 104.50 mark acting as a psychological support as well, bolstering the pivot point.

Traders' Sentiment
For the sixth time in a row bulls lost some numbers, barely remaining in the majority, namely taking up 55% of the market (previously 57%). Meanwhile, the share of sell orders edged down from 70 to 51%.