Daily Technical Analysis for Majors by Dukascopy

[Anastasia DC]

EUR/USD at 1.10 on Wednesday morning

"Price has been trading around a flat 200 day average for some time in what's indicative of a ‘trendless' market so a ‘move' is due."
– based on Daily FX

Pair's Outlook
The Euro was highly volatile to the upside against the Greenback on Tuesday, as the pair had reached above the weekly PP at 1.1005. The currency exchange rate was volatile between the levels of 1.0978 and 1.1030. However, at the end of the day the rate moved lower, as the common European currency ended Tuesday's trading session at 1.0986, which is eight pips lower than the opening price of 1.0994. On Wednesday morning, the rate has resume to surge, as it was at 1.10 by 4:45 GMT.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX trader sentiment has slightly shifted to the bearish side, as 51% of open positions are short on Wednesday morning. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 52% short.

 

[Anastasia DC]

GBP/USD in limbo ahead of FOMC Minutes

"Even if the chance of a 2016 rate hike is slim, U.S. policymakers will leave the door open to tightening this year. In other words, we are looking for the dollar to rise on FOMC."
- BK Asset Management (based on PoundSterlingLive)

Pair's Outlook
For the second day in a row the GBP/USD currency pair remained almost completely flat, having edged only ten pips lower yesterday. The Cable remained in limbo mostly due to lack of market movers during the previous days, but that is about to change, as a number of fundamentals are scheduled for today. The Pound is still located below the 20-day SMA and the weekly PP resistance cluster, thus, a downside development is more probable. Technical indicators are too suggesting that the bearish outcome is more likely to occur, but the 1.31 major level remains a relatively strong support. In case of a failure to limit the losses, the next target will be the weekly S1 at 1.3011.

Traders' Sentiment
Bullish market sentiment returned to its Monday's level of 55%, while the share of sell orders edged down from 59 to 52%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

USD/JPY attempts to post gains on BoJ stimulus hopes

"Some of the world's largest yen traders believe the yen will strengthen regardless of the rate decision. And I agree."
- Stephen Simonis, FXDD Global (based on Business Recorder)

Pair's Outlook
The USD/JPY currency pair edged lower on Tuesday, but, as expected, was unable to fall below the 104.00 major level, due to demand around 104.15 being sufficient to limit the losses. Earlier today the Yen weakened amid rumors of the BoJ possibly announcing more stimulus during its meeting later this week, allowing the Greenback to take the upper hand. The key resistance is located around 106.40, represented by the weekly PP, the 55-day SMA and the 38.20% Fibo, but it is uncertain whether the Buck will be able to maintain trade even above the 105.00 level, despite technical indicators retaining bullish signs. A dovish FOMC statement could cause the pair to plunge further today.

Traders' Sentiment
Now 56% of traders are long the US Dollar (previously 55%), whereas 75% of all pending orders are to acquire the US currency, up from 65%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

Gold fluctuating around 1,320 on Wednesday

"Gold market is quiet on seasonal softness. That may be about to change, as both the US and Japanese central banks are having policy meetings this week."
– Stewart Thomson, Graceland Investment Management

Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal has been stagnant for the past sessions, as the bullion has been bouncing around the 1,320 level. On Monday it seemed, that a new trend might finally start, as the metal's price fell, and that changed on Tuesday, as the price surged back up close to 1,320 level. On Wednesday morning, the commodity is trading slightly volatile at the same levels, as during Tuesday's trading session. Although, the situation might change by the end of the week, as the 20-day SMA is closing in on the rate from the upside at 1,323.75.

Traders' Sentiment
With respects to the bullion, SWFX traders have not changed their sentiment, as 51% of open positions remain long on Wednesday morning. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 65% long.

 

[Anastasia DC]

EUR/USD surges past 1.1050 on Wednesday

"EUR/USD's rebound and break of 1.1059 minor resistance suggests that choppy fall from 1.1185 is completed at 1.0951."
– based on Action Forex

Pair's Outlook
The common European currency scored major gains against the US Dollar, as the currency exchange rate started Wednesday's trading at 1.0987 and ended the trading session at 1.1058. During this surge, the currency pair broke through two resistance levels, as first the weekly pivot point at 1.1005 gave up, and afterwards the first weekly resistance at 1.1055 was broken. However, the weekly R1 is also a part of a larger resistance cluster, which is also made up of the 20-day SMA at 1.1063 and 200-day SMA at 1.1073, and these resistances were holding the pair back on Thursday morning.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have increased their bearish sentiment, as 53% of open positions are short. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range have shifted and become bullish, as 52% of commands are long.

 

[Anastasia DC]

GBP/USD to return under 1.32

"If the U.S. economy continues to grow despite the increased headwinds, slack in the labor market will diminish, and we expect the Fed to squeeze in one rate hike before the end of the year, most likely in December."
- Rabobank (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook
A rather dovish FOMC stance and poor US fundamentals on Wednesday caused the Greenback to weaken against the British Pound, resulting in the Cable's 90-pip rally. Nevertheless, the GBP/USD currency pair still remains within its recent trading range, namely between the 1.31 and the 1.3250 levels. The upper border is also bolstered by the weekly R1, thus, we should see the Sterling edge lower again today. Technical indicators are also in favour of the bearish scenario, in which case the weekly PP and the 20-day SMA are to act as the nearest support around 1.3155.

Traders' Sentiment
For two straight weeks now market sentiment barely changes. There are currently 54% of traders being long the Pound (previously 55%), while the number of sell orders increased from 52 to 64%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

USD/JPY to continue sliding down

"The BOJ news tomorrow will trump the FOMC news last night/ An above consensus amount of stimulus would surely push dollar-yen higher."
- Westpac Banking Corp. (based on Bloomberg)

Pair's Outlook
The Buck managed to outperform the Japanese currency yesterday, but barely succeeding in climbing over the 105.00 major level. Despite the miraculous rally, the Yen is expected to post gains against the US Dollar once again today, therefore, returning to the trading range between 104.00 and 105.00. A drop lower is unlikely, as the pair is supported by a strong cluster around 104.20, formed by the weekly S2, the monthly PP and the 20-day SMA. Technical indicators in the daily timeframe are unable to confirm this scenario, but the weekly and the monthly ones suggest the Greenback is to keep declining against the Yen.

Traders' Sentiment
Bullish traders' sentiment remains unchanged at 56%, but the portion of orders to acquire the US currency edged lower today, namely from 75 to 53%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

Gold surges to 1,338 on Wednesday

"Markets are wrestling with the feasibility of U.S. rate hikes in the remainder of the year and the Fed has displayed a persistent drive towards trying to ‘normalize' rate policy despite the plethora of global risks."
– based on Daily FX

Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal was stuck around the level of 1,320 for the past sessions, and it seemed that it will not gain a new direction for some time. However, during Wednesday's trading session the metal surged from 1,319.22 at the start of the session to 1,338.82 at the end of day's trading. During this climb the commodity moved past three resistance levels, as the weekly PP was broken at 1,323.60. Afterwards, the price passed the 20-day SMA at 1,325.56 and weekly R1 at 1,336.44. At the start of Thursday's trading session the metal remains flat at 1,338.75.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX trader sentiment remains unchanged on Thursday, as 51% of open positions remain long. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 63% long.

 

[Anastasia DC]

EUR/USD nearing 1.12 mark on Monday

"Markets are no longer pricing in an ECB rate cut this year, and the Fed isn't expected to raise rates until at least January 2018."
– based on Daily FX

Pair's Outlook
The common European currency surged majorly against the US Dollar on Friday, as the pair surged from 1.1074 to 1.1172 during the day's trading session. With the start of a new week, on Monday, the currency exchange rate slightly gained, as it was at 1.1176 by 5:15 GMT. The pair faces no almost no resistance up to the level of the newly formed weekly R1 at 1.1263, as on the wait northwards are located only the upper Bollinger band at 1.1190 and the 100-day SMA at 1.1235. In the meantime, daily aggregate technical indicators forecast no change for the pair today.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have increased their bearish sentiment, as 58% of open positions were short on Monday morning. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range were 55% short.

 

[Anastasia DC]

GBP/USD attempts to keep rising

"We see good risk-reward with selling GBPUSD on rallies too. The risk to this trade is that any broader USD weakness limits any downside in GBPUSD for now."
- Morgan Stanley (based on PoundSterlingLive)

Pair's Outlook
Amid weak US GDP figures the Cable was able to edge higher on Friday, completely erasing all intraweek losses. The GBP/USD pair is expected to continue climbing up today, despite technical indicators retaining bearish signals both in the daily and the weekly timeframes. The pair is now supported by a strong cluster around 1.3170, represented by the 20-day SMA, the weekly and the monthly PPs, which is likely to prompt the exchange rate to eventually retake the 1.33 major level. However, we should not rule out the possibility of the Pound sustaining a minor loss of approximately 30 pips.

Traders' Sentiment
Bears keep gaining numbers, as 58% of all open positions are short (previously 56%). At the same time, the number of orders to sell the Sterling inched up from 53 to 55%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

USD/JPY struggles to recover from Friday's slump

"Dollar-yen is rebounding after being sold off too aggressively. But if upcoming data strengthens the scenario where a rate increase next month isn't possible, dollar-yen could break 100 this week."
- Gaitame.com Research Institute Ltd. (based on Bloomberg)

Pair's Outlook
The USD/JPY currency pair plunged on Friday for the two main reasons: the BoJ failing to deliver and the a lot weaker-than-expected US GDP figures. As a result, the pair reached a bottom of 102.00, erasing all gains for the previous three weeks. Downside risks persist, with the nearest significant area to limit the losses located only around 100.50, formed by the 50.0% Fibo, the weekly S1 and the Bollinger band, which prevented the pair from falling deeper down in the beginning of July. However, a correction is the base case scenario, but with gains most likely limited by the 103.00 mark, also reinforced by the weekly and the monthly PPs.

Traders' Sentiment
Bulls remain in control, taking up 58% of the market (previously 57%). Meanwhile, the share of sell orders increased from 31 to 59%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

Gold trading at 1,350 on Monday

"Everything is now aligned for the final upward impulse to complete Phase I of the great bull market in the PM stocks."
– Burt Coons (based on investing.com)

Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal surged on Friday, as it went from the level of 1,335.75 at the start of the day's trading session to 1,350.10. On Monday morning the metal was trading at 1,349.62 by 5:30 GMT. The bullion started new week and month above the weekly and monthly pivot points respectively at 1,339.02 and 1,345.31, which indicates at a bullish market sentiment. In addition, gold is not facing any resistance up to the level of 1,366.06, where the weekly R1 is located at.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have become bearish on the pair, as 52% of open positions are short on Monday, compared to the neutral sentiment on Friday. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 62% long.

 

[Anastasia DC]

EUR/USD above 1.12 mark on Wednesday

"The EBA stress tests did not tell us something we didn't know."
- based on Forex Crunch

Pair's Outlook
The Euro surged against the US Dollar on Tuesday, as the currency exchange rate moved from 1.1162 at the start of day's trading to 1.1221 by the end of day's trading. However, pair was struggling with the 100-day SMA at 1.1236 on Tuesday, and it moved slightly lower on early Wednesday morning, as the common European currency traded at 1.1212 against the Greenback by 5:00 GMT on Wednesday. Although, as daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a surge for the pair today, the pair is most likely to test the resistance once more.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX trader sentiment remains bearish on Wednesday, as 61% of open positions are short. In the meantime, pending orders have become more bearish, as on Wednesday 56% of pending commands were short, compared to 53% on Tuesday.

 

[Anastasia DC]

Gold struggles with resistance at 1,366

"If the performance of the current bull market actually matched that of the 70s, then prices should have risen about 1000%."
- Hubert Moolman (based on investing.com)

Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal surged on Tuesday from 1,353.69 to 1,362.77, and the metal was volatile between the support level provided by the monthly PP at 1,345.31 and the first weekly resistance at 1,366.07. The resistance made the commodity move lower at the end of day's trading session, and gold continues to struggle with it on Wednesday, as the metal was trading at 1,364.47 by 5:15 GMT. Daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a surge for the commodity today, due to that it is most likely that gold will soon break the resistance.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have increased their bearish stance on the pair, as 55% of open positions were short on Wednesday morning. In the meantime, pending orders were 58% long.

 

[Anastasia DC]

GBP/USD surges to 1.3350; is prepared for more

"Everyone had been quite positive on the dollar going into the FOMC and it didn't really deliver, so there's been a subsequent leakage of positions ever since."
- Altana (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook
Yesterday's UK construction PMI was enough of a catalyst to push the Cable out of the triangle. As a result of a positive surprise, the rate has already touched upon the first bullish target at 1.3350, represented by July 13 close and weekly R1. If today's UK data is also strong and the US releases remain neutral, the price will have a good chance of revisiting July highs at 1.3480. Still, considering releases that are to come tomorrow, we could observe a lull today, despite the usually influential numbers that are to be published this Wednesday.

Traders' Sentiment
There is virtually no difference between the number of bulls and bears, both camps hold exactly a half of the market. Similarly, the gap between the buy and sell orders is also small—eight percentage points in favour of the latter.

 

[Anastasia DC]

EUR/USD below 1.1150 on Thursday

"The Dollar took note of technical support for key pairs like EUR/USD and leveraged a rebound."
– John Kicklighter (based on Daily FX)

Pair's Outlook
The common European currency depreciated against the US Dollar on Wednesday, as it stopped its previous surge and dropped to 1.1149 by the end of day's trading session. On Thursday morning, the currency exchange rate tried to move northwards. However, the pair was stopped by the 55-day SMA at 1.1156, and, afterwards, it moved slightly lower, as the exchange rate was located at 1.1145 by 5:00 GMT. The direction of the pair is unclear, as daily aggregate technical indicators forecast, that the pair will surge.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have slightly decreased their bearish sentiment, as 55% of open positions are short on Thursday, compared to 61% previously. In the meantime, pending commands have not changed, as they remain 56% short.

 

[Anastasia DC]

EUR/USD below 1.1150 on Thursday

"The Dollar took note of technical support for key pairs like EUR/USD and leveraged a rebound."
– John Kicklighter (based on Daily FX)

Pair's Outlook
The common European currency depreciated against the US Dollar on Wednesday, as it stopped its previous surge and dropped to 1.1149 by the end of day's trading session. On Thursday morning, the currency exchange rate tried to move northwards. However, the pair was stopped by the 55-day SMA at 1.1156, and, afterwards, it moved slightly lower, as the exchange rate was located at 1.1145 by 5:00 GMT. The direction of the pair is unclear, as daily aggregate technical indicators forecast, that the pair will surge.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders have slightly decreased their bearish sentiment, as 55% of open positions are short on Thursday, compared to 61% previously. In the meantime, pending commands have not changed, as they remain 56% short.

 

[Anastasia DC]

GBP/USD retreats from 1.3350

"There is enough evidence on the negative shock to the economy that some easing is justified."
- Investec (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook
GBP/USD trades lower today in anticipation of the BOE's decision on the interest rate. Nevertheless, from a technical perspective the currency pair retains a good chance to resume Tuesday's rally, as it has recently broken out of the triangle to the upside. If the price manages to stay above 1.32 and then consolidates over 1.3350, the next objective for bulls will be the July high at 1.3480. A case for a stronger Pound, however, is weak, as the technical indicators are from neutral to bearish.

Traders' Sentiment
Ambiguity of Sterling's prospects is also highlighted by traders' indecision: bulls and bears are presently equal in numbers. In the meantime, the share of sell orders is 20% higher than the share of buy orders.

 

[Anastasia DC]

USD/JPY rises from 100.70

"BOJ officials continue to give no signal the central bank will be willing to act in concert with the government and implement helicopter-money style policies. Dollar-yen is still likely to trade heavily until the U.S. payrolls data."
- Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. (based on Bloomberg)

Pair's Outlook
So far support at 100.70, represented by the 2014 low and 50% retracement of the 2012-2015 up-move, is able to hold off the bearish pressure. Demand in this region is also reinforced by a psychological level of 100 yen, below which we may expect interventions from the BOJ. Accordingly, the rate is well-positioned to return to the monthly PP at 103.20. Nevertheless, prolonged recovery is unlikely because of the bearish monthly indicators and a strong trend-line at 105, where resistance is strengthened by the 55-day SMA.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX sentiment further decreases the chance of solid gains from 100.70, being that the US Dollar is overbought: two thirds of positions are long. At the same time, there is no visible difference between the buy (52%) and sell orders (48%).

 

[Anastasia DC]

Gold falls to 1,350

"Global meltdown fears are rising as stocks fall for the eighth day in a row and traders seek safe have in gold and silver."
– Phil Flynn (based on investing.com)

Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal bounced off the first weekly resistance at 1,366.06 and fell to 1,357.25 on Wednesday. At the start of Thursday's trading session the bullion has fallen even more than during yesterday's session, as the metal had fallen to 1,350 by 5:00 GMT. At such rate gold is soon going to reach the support provided by the monthly PP at 1,345.31. However, daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a surge for the metal during today's trading session.

Traders' Sentiment
The SWFX market has not changed during the night, as market sentiment remains 55% short on Thursday. In the meantime, pending orders are 67% long, which indicates at a possible upcoming surge.