Daily Technical Analysis for Majors by Dukascopy

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD breaks pattern

The common European currency for the first time during the week did not follow in accordance with the forecast against the US Dollar on Thursday. As a result the short term situation was reviewed.

During the last 24 hours the pair declined to once more reconfirm the lower trend line of the medium term descending channel pattern. Moreover, it reached the long term target of 1.1670. Afterwards, the pair rebounded and began and surged above the weekly S1 at 1.1725.

It is most likely that the pair will continue to surge on Friday until it reaches the various resistance levels near the 1.1750 mark.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD bounced off long term support

A review of the situation on the GBP/USD pair has been done. As a result of that, various new pieces of information have been discovered.

First of all, the recent decline of the pair was occuring in a medium term channel pattern, which guided the pair in its fall after encountering a dominant pattern’s resistance.

However, on Friday it was revealed that there was another channel, whose support line has kept the rate from falling during this week. Moreover, a rebound has occured against the line. Due to that reason the rate should continue the surge. Although, on Friday it still has to pass the 100-hour SMA at 1.29.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY approaches support below 1.09 mark

Due to the previous forecasts failing, a review of the USD/JPY pair has been conducted. It was revealed that the pair remains on a large scale in a descending channel.

However, the recent surge of the US Dollar against the Yen occurred due to encountering a support of a long term channel up pattern. It was followed by a rebound, which can be observed on the chart. Although, it has ended and a short term decline has started in a presumed descending channel pattern.

In regards to Friday’s trading , it can be expected that the rate will reach the monthly S1 and the support of the long term channel at 108.82.

 

[KristinaDC]

XAU/USD moves exactly as expected

The yellow metal’s price movements in the past trading session have become increasingly easy to forecast. Moreover, the future also seems clear.

First of all, the bullion has revealed the medium term ascending channel’s borders, which help to predict when the metal will reach above the 1,300 mark. Secondly, the commodity price has reached above the 1,290 mark and touched the 1,295 level on Friday.

In the near future it can be expected that the metal’s price will surge above the 1,300 mark. However, that can be hindered, if the new weekly pivot points on Monday obstruct the surge.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD stuck around 1.1750

In line with expectations, the EUR continued to advance against the USD until the pair has encountered a combined resistance level set up by the updated weekly PP and the 200-hour SMA. As a result, the currency rate has stuck near the 1.1750 level. Nevertheless, the surge is expected to continue, as the pair has no barriers on its way up until the weekly R1 at 1.1846, while from the bottom it experiences certain pressure from the 55- and 100-hour SMAs.

In the meantime, it should be noted that an area near the 1.1810 mark represents a location of the medium-term descending channel’s upper boundary, which most likely is going to turn around the exchange rate.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD begins a week near 1.2881

The British Pound is continuing to lose value against the US Dollar in a four day long descending triangle pattern. The figure formed in result of traders’ reaction on announcement of the UK CPI last Tuesday.

Most probably, the Sterling is going to fail to break to the top, as the northern path is secured by a combination of the 55- and 100-hour SMAs plus the updated weekly PP, which is located slightly above the pattern at 1.2910.

This assumption seems valid not only from the trade pattern theory, but is also supported by a summary of multiple technical indicators, which send strong sell signals for the 5H and 1D timeframes.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY rebounds from monthly S1

As it was expected, the currency exchange rate reached and bounced off from the monthly S1 located at the 108.82 level. In result of this action, the junior short-term channel has been broken.

Unfortunately for the buck, the further surge did not follow and it is not expected to resume today as well, as the road upstairs is obstructed by multiple barriers, such as the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs as well as the updated weekly PP at 109.59.

Thus, the pair is expected to try to break through the above monthly S1 one more time and, thus, finally reach the bottom line of a larger scale descending channel.

 

[KristinaDC]

XAU/USD slips to 1,286.08

After reaching the northern boundary of a one week long ascending channel the yellow metal made a rebound and started to decline against the American Dollar until the pair found a support set up by the 100-hour SMA.

At the moment, the pair is fluctuating around the updated weekly PP near 1,284.70, simultaneously being squeezed between the 55-hour SMA from the top and the above 100-hour SMA from the bottom.

Today the bullion is expected to resume the surge. Firstly, because it is continues to move in two ascending channels. Secondly, because the southern path is also secured by the 200-hour SMA and the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level at 1,278.96.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD touches channel’s boundary

In accordance with expectations, the common European currency continued the surge against the US Dollar in a short-term ascending channel until it met a resistance barrier formed by the upper trend-line of a senior descending channel.

For this reason, the currency exchange rate is expected to move downwards. This course is supported by the overall market sentiment, which is 71% bearish. On the other hand, a summary of various technical indicators for the upcoming trading day sends a strong buy signal. However, both the situation and the forecasts can be altered after release of information on the German Economic Sentiment, which might slightly devaluate the Euro and accelerate the fall.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD rebounds from weekly PP at 1.2910

The latest developments in the GBP/USD currency pair forced to partially review the situation. On the one hand, the Pound expectedly rose and bounced off from the weekly PP at 1.2910. On the other hand, the subsequent fall through the 55- and 100-hour SMAs entails that the pair is rather moving in a rectangle or triple bottom formation that in the descending triangle. If the first assumption is true, the Pound has to eventually break through the 1.2846 level to the bottom and continue to move in a downtrend. This scenario seems rational since the 200-hour SMA is located way above the current market price. But if the second assumption is true, the pair should change the direction and start to move to the north.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY heads towards 109.59

The USD/JPY exchange rate acted exactly as it was expected. Namely, it made the second attempt to break through the monthly S2 at 108.82, but failed. In result of a rebound, it broke through the upper boundary of a junior descending channel.

At the moment, it is heading upwards towards a combined resistance level set up a combination of the weekly PP at 109.59 in conjunction with the 100- and 200-hour SMAs. Most probably, their combined effort will force the pair to retreat. An aggregate of technical indicators support this possibility by sending strong sell signal. But in the meantime, the average market sentiment remains 68.24% bullish, which should not be disregarded in the larger perspective.

 

[KristinaDC]

XAU/USD fails to climb above 1,292.91

As it was expected, previous trading session the yellow metal spent in a steady surge against the American Dollar. However, the soar did not last for long, as it was stopped already at the closest resistance level set up by the monthly R1 at 1,292.91. At the moment, the pair is moving horizontally, being squeezed between two notable barriers. The first is made of a combination of the 100- and 200-hour SMAs as well as the weekly PP at 1,284.70. The other one is made of the above monthly R1, but most importantly of an area located around the 1,296.00 mark, which represents a crossroad of the two junior ascending channels’ upper boundaries. Hence, it seems that the bullion will prefer to move either horizontally, or downwards.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD finds support at 1.1754

As it was expected, a release of information on the German Economic Sentiment, which appeared to be even less than analysts anticipated, notably affected valuation of the Euro. Namely, it dragged the currency pair down by 0.34%. And the only obstacle that stopped the fall was the weekly PP located at the 1.1754 level. Given that this barrier practically coincides with the bottom edge of a junior ascending channel, the exchange rate should not plunge any further. From technical perspective it is expected to make a rebound and start to move towards the 1.1800 mark. However, this scenario might not materialize due to the ECB President Mario Draghi speech that will be delivered at 7:00 GMT and that most likely will cause significant volatility in the markets.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD breaks through 1.2846

In accordance with one of the scenarios expressed yesterday, the currency exchange rate made a confident breakout from the rectangle formation and slipped to the bottom.

The likely impulse for such outcome was provided by a combination of the 55- and 100-hour SMAs near the 1.2881 mark.

At the moment, the currency rate has only one barrier on its way, which is set up by the weekly S1 at 1.2799. In the short run, the pair might a make a rebound.

But, given the general downtrend that started in the beginning of August, the Pound is expected to continue to lose value against the US Dollar.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY spikes above 200-hour SMA

The way the currency pair ended up previous trading day shows how it is important in certain cases to take into account the overall market sentiment. As it can be seen from the chart, yesterday the exchange rate has successfully managed to break through a combined resistance level set up by the 100- and 200-hour SMAs as well as the weekly PP.

Despite the 22-pip fall in the early morning, it seems that the rate is moving in a narrow short-term ascending channel. If this assumption is true, the pair might get a chance to gradually surge to the area between 110.10 and 110.30 levels, which represents a location of the northern boundary of a senior descending channel.

 

[KristinaDC]

XAU/USD continue to move horizontally

In line with expectations, the rest of the previous trading session the yellow metal spent in a relatively flat movement against the US Dollar. The pair did not resume the surge, but it also did not manage to sneak through a combination of the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP at 1,284.70.

Nevertheless, a steady movement to the bottom seems the most viable scenario, as the bullion has entered in a little short-term descending channel.

On the other hand, an aggregate of technical indicators on the 1D timeframe sends an opposite signal, warning that the above support level might be too strong to be so easily bypassed.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD surges as Draghi speaks

As it was expected, previous trading session the currency exchange rate spent in an upward movement that was inspired to some extent by a combination of the weekly PP together with the 100- and 200-hour SMAs, but mostly by a speech delivered by Mario Draghi in the early morning. The only unexpected thing was that the pair managed to cross the upper boundary of a senior descending channel.

On the other hand, this overstepping had a short-term effect, which means that the pair might return back into formation. However, an aggregate of technical indicators for the 5H and 1D timeframes suggests that the rate is going to continue the surge. In the meantime, market sentiment stays 70% bearish.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD expectedly passes 1.2799

As forecasted on Wednesday, the British Pound continued to lose value against the American Dollar and slipped right through the weekly S1, which is located at the 1.2199 level. Such outcome additionally confirms that the pair is moving in a clearly expressed downtrend.

As a result, the exchange rate has no technical indicators on its way that might force it to start moving in the opposite direction. For instance, the closest support level, which is set up by the weekly S2, is located only at the 1.2720 level. On the other hand, at 8:30 GMT there will be a release a Second Estimate GDP that might cause certain volatility and lead to a short-term recovery of the Sterling.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY returns back to 108.82

Unfortunately for the buck, the assumption about an existence of a short-term ascending channel did not confirm, as the currency rate once again slipped to the monthly S1. A quite sharp fall indicated that the pair had a chance bypass this support level, but in the early Thursday morning the Greenback started to actively recover ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium. An aggregate of technical indicators suggests the pair will continue to move downwards despite the two failed attempts to slide below the 108.82 level. That might be true, especially taking into account that the pair is simultaneously moving a senior descending channel. On the other hand, there will be also a release of the US housing data that might accelerate the fall, or help the buck to continue to recover further.

 

[KristinaDC]

XAU/USD heads towards 1,292.91

The way the bullion moved yesterday confirmed that a theory that a support area formed by a combination of the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP near 1,284.70 was a stronger barrier than the 55- and 100-hour SMAs.

As a result, the pair broke to the top and has practically reached the monthly R1 at 1,292.91. Most probably, today the yellow metal is going to repeat this attempt. Such assumption is supported by an aggregate of technical indicators, which sends a strong buy signal. However, even if the gold will lose some value while waiting for beginning of the Jackson Hole Symposium, the drop is unlikely to go below the above combined support level.