Daily Technical Analysis for Majors by Dukascopy

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD prepares for Draghi and Yellen speeches

An hourly chart reveals that the Euro is moving against the American Dollar in a short-term symmetrical triangle, as traders await both Mario Draghi and Janet Yellen speeches that will be delivered later this day at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

From a technical perspective, a breakout to the northern direction seems more possible, as the currency pair experiences pressure from the 55- and 100-hour SMAs from the bottom. In addition, the upper area lacks any notable resistance barriers in the next 45-pip range.

However, if the downfall happens, then in the worst case scenario it should be stopped by the 100% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1714.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD tries to head to the north

In line with expectations, an announcement of the Second Estimate GDP helped the Pound to slightly recover against the American Dollar. In result of the surge, the currency pair has reached the upper boundary of a senior descending channel, but then was forced to make a rebound.

The fact that the pair has subsequently failed to slide through the weekly S1 at 1.2799 indicates that it might make a breakout to the top. However, even if it happens the further movement most likely will be neutralized either by the 100-, or the 200-hour SMA. But in the meantime, there is a need to take into account the impact that will be brought by the upcoming Janet Yellen speech.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY stuck at 109.59

As it was expected, the American Dollar continued to gradually recover against the Japanese Yen in anticipation of the speech that will be delivered today at the Jackson Hole Symposium at 16:00 GMT.

From a technical point of a view, the further surge of the buck is a quite possible scenario, as the pair has an obstacle-free area up until the upper boundary of a senior descending channel. The southern side, in contrast, contains various barriers, such as the 55- and 100-hour SMAs or the monthly S1. However, if remarks from the Fed Chair will be disappointing, none of the above barriers could stop the fall of the rate that will be followed by an active acquisition of the Yen.

 

[KristinaDC]

XAU/USD concentrates in symmetrical triangle

The way the bullion is moving against the buck, basically, repeats the path of the Euro, as majority of traders prepare for a speech that will be delivered by Janet Yellen at 16:00 GMT.

Namely, the pair has entered into a short-term symmetrical triangle that continued narrowing down in parallel to the increasing anxiety related to the upcoming fundamental event. From a daily chart perspective, a breakout to the top seems a more likely scenario, as the bullion is expected to reach the upper boundary of a massive long-term ascending channel. But in any case, the further direction will depend solely on content of the above speech.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD jumps on Friday

The results of the Jackson Hole symposium can be observed on the charts on Monday. The Euro has skyrocketed against the US Dollar. Both speeches of the ECB and the FED leaders have caused a surge in the currency pair. However, the impact of the speech of Janet Yellen was larger than the one of Mario Draghi.

Meanwhile, from a technical perspective it was a perfect break out from the triangle pattern that Dukascopy analysts were talking and writing about constantly. The breakout has occurred to the upside.

In regards to the future situation, it can be expected that the currency rate will reach for the 1.20 mark . However, a full review is required first.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD opens near 1.2940

GBP/USD was driven by strong upside momentum on Friday that resulted in the pair closing at the 1.2886 mark, as sluggish US Durable Goods Orders sent the rate for a 57-pip hourly surge.

The Pound opened at 1.2934 this session just below the monthly S1 and the weekly R1. Ths level, however, was not sustainable, as bears managed to push the pair back to the 1.2880 area by early Monday.

Technical indicators support the rate edging lower. A significant level of support is set by the weekly PP and the 200-hour SMA near 1.2860. As no strong market movers are expected today, the rate should remain between 1.2860/1.2940.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY finds resistance at 55– and 100-hour SMAs

The US Dollar was heading towards the 109.08 mark against the Yen prior to being pushed down by sluggish US Durable Goods Orders. The given move resulted in the rate dashing through the 200-, 55– and 100-hour SMAs down to 109.10.

Subsequently, the rate has remained in a relatively stable level between the weekly PP and the monthly S1 in 109.28/108.82.

It is likely that the Greenback tries to appreciate once again towards the 200-hour SMA—a level that should be today’s upside limit. On the other hand, the aforementioned monthly S1 together with the weekly S1 circa 108.80 is expected to limit losses for Dollar bulls.

 

[KristinaDC]

XAU/USD breaks both ways

If one had his positions set right, a trader could have cashed in double from the Jackson Hole event in regards to the yellow metal’s price.

As soon as the central bankers opened their mouths and started spilling information about global monetary policy in the future, the commodity price started bouncing in a range from 1,276 to 1,295 just during the first hour.

Such move was not initially expected, as it is not consistent with the theory of a triangle pattern, which was active before the event.

However, the end result is a surge, which seems to be unopposed heading once more to reach above the 1,300 mark.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD heads towards 1.2000

The common European currency is continuing to advance against the US Dollar, using an upside momentum that was provided by the Jackson Hole Symposium. In result of the previous trading session, the currency rate has entered into a small ascending channel, which is expected to help the pair to surge to the 1.2000 level. Afterwards, a rebound might happen, as the further road is secured not only by the weekly R1, but also by the monthly R1 at 1.2021. The opposite side, in contrast, is protected only by the 55-hour SMA. However, there is a need to take into account an impact on the value of buck after release of information on the US CB Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT, which is expected to plunge to 120.9, compared to the 121.1 last month.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD tries to break 1.2944

Fortunately for the Pound, the eight-hour downfall was stopped already near the 1.2880 level. Accordingly, the rest of the day the Sterling spent in a recovery against the US Dollar. By the moment, the pair has reached a combined resistance level set up by the weekly R1 at 1.2942 and the monthly S1 at 1.2944. From a daily chart perspective, the further surge seems unlikely. On the other hand, an extensive fall is not expected as well, as the southern side is secured by the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs together with the weekly R1 at 1.2858. It is quite possible that the rate will stuck at the above resistance for some time. In this sense, a decisive signal is expected to be given by release of information on the US CB Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY falls as North Korean crisis escalates

In result of a new ballistic missile test conducted by North Korea, the American Dollar lost 0.57% against the Japanese Yen just in two hours. Accordingly, in the first half of Tuesday the buck is expected to try to recover some of the lost value. However, even if it succeeds to break through the upper boundary of a junior descending channel, the pair most likely will fail to climb above 109.28, as this resistance level is reliably protected by a combination of the weekly PP and the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs.

In addition, there is a need to take into account another fundamental event that will happen at 14:00 GMT, i.e. a release of data on the US CB Consumer Confidence.

 

[KristinaDC]

XAU/USD surges above 1,316.50

During the whole previous trading day, the yellow metal was continuing to appreciate against the US Dollar. The only barrier that managed to stop the surge was a combined resistance level formed by the monthly R2 at 1,315.30 and the weekly R3 at 1,316.51.On the one hand, today the buck should try to restore some of the lost positions. On the other hand, the bullion now has a new, solid support level, which it can use to try to reach a new target, such as the monthly R3 at 1,359.22. It should be noted that this pivot point represents the only and closest obstacle from the northern side. In the meantime, there is also a need to take into account an effect from escalation of the North Korea crisis and a release of data on the US CB Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD slips to 55-hour SMA at 1.1975

In line with expectations, the currency exchange rate has successfully crossed a combination of the weekly and monthly R1 near 1.2010 and then made a rebound. The only nuance was that a rebound happened a little bit higher, from the weekly R2 at 1.2976 and continued until the 55-hour SMA. Today, two scenarios are likely to happen. In first, the currency pair might try to repeat previous day’s advance. In second, it will manage slip to the bottom and gradually continue the fall until the 100-hour SMA. It is quite possible that bears will play in favour of the buck in anticipation of release of data on the US Non-Farm Employment Change and Preliminary GDP later this day, which both are expected to show positive changes in the US economy.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD returns to 1.2926

Yesterday the given pair moved quite similarly to the Euro and gold. The first half of the day it spent in a surge but, after reaching certain point, changed a direction and started to decline until the 55-hour SMA. Today, the Pound faces the same dilemma as the bullion. On the one hand, it might try once again to break through a combination of the weekly R1 and the monthly S1. However, an easier path would be to continue the downfall towards the 100-hour SMA. It seems that yesterday the pair made a rebound from an upper trend-line of a new medium-term ascending channel. If this is true, then the further plunge seems even rational. But there is also a need to take into account an effect from another release of the US data today.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY jumps to 109.92

Among all major currency pairs, the greatest impact from a release of information on the US CB Consumer Confidence suffered the Yen, which lost 1.13% in value in seven hours. Today the buck is expected to continue the soar at least until it will encounter a combined resistance level set up by the weekly R1 at 109.92 and the senior channel’s upper boundary. Given that from the southern side all technical barriers are located below the 109.28 level, a rebound is likely to happen. However, there is also a need to take into account a reaction of traders on release of the two key US macroeconomic data sets today, which are likely to stimulate appreciation of the buck even more. To put differently, if the released data justifies experts expectations, the pair will break out of the channel in the northern direction.

 

[KristinaDC]

XAU/USD falls on US fundamentals

Yesterday the buck quite expectedly appreciated against the gold. However, this movement was rather based on reaction from release of data on the US CB Consumer Confidence than some technical factors. Similarly to the Euro, the fall continued until the pair encountered a support set up by the 55-hour SMA and the weekly R2 at 1,305.61. In order to continue the surge, the yellow metal now has to cross a combined resistance level formed by the weekly R3 and the monthly R2. Most probably, this attempt will fail and the pair will end the day in the decline. The main reason behind such assumption is a double release of the US macroeconomic data, among which one of them is Preliminary GDP. Moreover, both data sets are expected to show some positive developments.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD plunges to 1.18

As it was expected, during the whole previous trading day the currency exchange rate was moving in ascending channel. At the moment, it is approaching a combined support level formed by the weekly PP at 1.1865 and the 200-hour SMA.

A rebound is expected to happen even if the rate will manage to slightly overstep beyond that barrier. One of the reasons is that a little bit lower there is located a bottom boundary of a large ascending channel that guides movement of the pair. The second reason is that there will be no notable data releases today. This means that the buck will not get any additional impulse from traders, anticipating these events (as it happened during the last couple of days).

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD trades in a limbo

In line with expectations, yesterday the exchange rate continued to move towards the 100-hour SMA amid a pressure from a combination of the weekly R1 and the monthly S1 as well as from release of the US macroeconomic data. At the moment, the pair is remaining in a limbo between these support and resistance levels.

Most probably, the Pound will continue to try to sneak to the top, using a silent day for its counterpart. On the other hand, the further fall towards the 1.28 mark seems a more reasonable path, as it contains a lot of free space until the 200-hour SMA near 1.2872. Nevertheless, a summary of technical indicators vote in favour of the surge, sending a strong buy signal.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY breaks from ascending channel

Fortunately for the buck, both data releases were even better that analysts anticipated. Even though they did not arouse especially high interest, but it was still enough to push the currency pair out of the channel. The surge gradually continued until the pair faced the first resistance level set up by the weekly R2 at 110.49. Contrary to the previous three days, today the Dollar will not have any additional stimulus from the fundamental side. Accordingly, the pair is likely to retreat back to the weekly R1 at 109.92. Yet, the sharp fall is not expected, as the southern side is reliably secured by the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs. However an opposite scenario is likely to happen as well, an aggregate of technical indicators sends a strong buy signal for the 5H and 1D timeframes.

 

[KristinaDC]

XAU/USD slips to 1,303.75

Yesterday the American Dollar continued to strengthen against the yellow metal and even managed to form a little descending triangle, whose lower support line matched with the upper boundary of a former long-term ascending channel.

In the early Thursday morning the bullion lost another 0.33% and slipped below the 100-hour SMA. On the one hand, a forming downtrend suggests that the plunge can continue at least until the 200-hour SMA near 1,295.80. On the other hand, over the last three days appreciation of the buck was mainly driven by various fundamental events. In contrast, today there will be no significant data releases that could give the Dollar a necessary impulse for the further surge.