Elliott Wave Analysis by EWF

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to talk about Copper. As our members know, Copper has incomplete bullish sequences in the cycle from the March 19th low. Break of 04/16 peak made cycle from the March (1.9715) low incomplete to the upside. The commodity is now bullish against the 2.1475 low. Consequently, we advised our members to avoid selling the pair , favoring the long side. Recently the pair has found buyers after completing Elliott Wave Expanded Flat Pattern.In further text we’re going to explain the forecast and Elliott Wave Pattern.

Before we take a look at the real market example of Expanded Flat, let’s explain the pattern in a few words.

Elliott Wave Expanded Flat is a 3 wave corrective pattern which could often be seen in the market nowadays. Inner subdivision is labeled as A,B,C , with inner 3,3,5 structure. Waves A and B have forms of corrective structures like zigzag, flat, double three or triple three. Third wave C is always 5 waves structure, either motive impulse or ending diagonal pattern. It’s important to notice that in Expanded Flat Pattern wave B completes above the start point of wave A, and wave C ends below the ending point of wave A which makes it Expanded. Wave C of expanded completes usually close to 1.236 Fibonacci extension of A related to B, but sometimes it could go up to 1.618 fibs ext.

You can learn more about Elliott Wave Flats and other Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.

At the graphic below, we can see what Expanded Flat structure looks like.





Now, let’s take a look at real market example and see what that pattern looks like.

COPPER 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 04.30.2020
Current view suggests Copper is still doing pull back against the 2.1497 low. Wave (b) blue made break above previous high, so wave ((b)) pull back can be unfolding either as Expanded flat or running flat. Anyway, we expect to see 5 waves down in (c) blue wave, and rally toward new highs.As we mentioned above in expanded flats, wave (c) leg completes usually between 1.236 -1.618 Fibonacci extension of (a) related to (b). In this case that area comes at 2.3255-2.2825.



COPPER 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 05.04.2020
COPPER made price structure that is characteristic for bullish Expanded Flat. Wave (b) completed above the start point of wave (a), and wave (c) ended below the ending point of wave (a). The price reached proposed Fibonacci extension zone at 2.3255-2.2825 and making turn. Current view suggests as far as the price stays above last low, wave ((b)) pull back can be completed at 2.2834 low as expanded flat. Now we need to see further separation higher, and break above April 30th peak to confirm next leg up is in progress. As we keep saying Flat patterns can get tricky to trade, as sometimes get too extended , when 1.618 fib extension becomes less reliable.



COPPER 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 05.08.2020
2.2834 low hes held nicely during the short term pull backs and we got further rally as expected. We got break above April 30th peak, confirming next leg up is ideally in progress. Copper has scope to extend up toward 2.534-2.625 ( equal legs from the 19th March low).

Keep in mind that market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site.



Elliott Wave Forecast

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Short Term Elliott Wave view in DAX suggests the rally from 3.16.2020 low ended at 11242.77 as an impulse structure. Up from 3.16.2020 low, wave (1) ended at 9145.93 and pullback in wave (2) ended at 8257.53. Index then resumed higher and ended wave (3) at 10820.17 and wave (4) pullback ended at 10257.27. The 30 minutes chart below shows the Index ended wave (4). Internal of wave (5) unfolded as another impulse in lesser degree.

Up from wave (4) low, wave 1 ended at 10608.39, and dips to 10299.31 ended wave 2. Wave 3 higher ended at 10897.82, wave 4 ended at 10721.42, and wave 5 of (5) ended at 11242.77. This also completed wave ((1)) in higher degree and ended cycle from 3.16.2020 low. Wave ((2)) pullback remains in progress as a zigzag where wave (A) ended at 10426 and wave (B) ended at 10986.22. Down from wave (B), wave 1 ended at 10740.82. Near term, while wave 2 bounce fails below 10986.22, and more importantly below 11242.77, expect Index to resume lower in wave (C) in 5 waves. Potential target of wave (C) lower is 100% - 123.6% Fibonacci extension of wave (A) which comes at 9985 - 10176 area.

DAX 30 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Paypal (NASDAQ: PYPL) is an American online payments company that enables digital and mobile payments on behalf of consumers and merchants worldwide.

Last week, PYPL broke above February 2020 peak to hit an all-time high few days before its first-quarter results then after the earnings came out it soared again. It's currently up 30% year-to-date and up 68% off March low.

Earlier this year, PYPL ended the rally from 2015 low at $124 as an impulsive 5 waves advance within wave (I) then it corrected that cycle lower in wave (II)) which didn't take much as the stock dropped 33% in 1 month before buyers stepped again at $82.. Based on the Elliott Wave Theory, a 5 waves advance is followed by a corrective 3 waves pullback then the instrument would resume the main trend looking for another 5 waves to take place at least.

The break higher that took place last week, confirmed the resumption of the bullish trend and opened an incomplete sequence for the stock toward 100% - 161.8% Fibonacci extension area $176 - $235. Consequently, Paypal is now looking to remain supported above march low $82 and buyers will be looking to join the rally. The next potential opportunity could be soon taking place in short term as the stock entered an extreme area at $140 - $154 which can provide a pullback in 3 or 7 swings which can be used to enter the market before further upside takes place.

PYPL Weekly Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Retail investors may return to Bitcoin again after the digital currency completed the one-in-four year adjustment called halving. Halving provides less rewards to miners who run high-powered computers to solve complex mathematical puzzles in order to generate new bitcoins. After this Monday, the current reward for unlocking a "block" has halved from 12.5 new coins to 6.5. Halving is part of the code originally written by the creator Satoshi Nakamoto to control inflation.

This is the third halving event in Bitcoin's 11 year history. The next halving will take place 4 years later in 2024. Halving code in Bitcoin also ensures that rewards to miners will continue to halve every 210,000 blocks. The reward should reach zero in around 2 decades and will limit the number of Bitcoin in circulation at 21 million. Some investors believe that halving can make Bitcoin less attractive to miners. However, based on the history, after post-halving drop in price, there is a bull run. The 2016 halving for example triggered 300% jump in value of Bitcoin.

Investors often compare Bitcoin with Gold as they both serve as alternate currencies to the fiat money. With governments around the world continue to print money and add trillions of dollars to the money supply, Bitcoin can be a viable option to protect investors purchasing power specially with growing mass adoption of the digital currency.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 4 Hour Elliott Wave Chart


4 hour Elliott Wave chart above shows the rally from 3.12.2020 low ended at 10074 as a 5 waves impulse structure and we label this as wave ((1)). Pullback in wave ((2)) remains in progress as a double zigzag and the digital currency can see further downside to reach 6002 - 7217 area before it resumes higher again. The blue box area, if reached, may see support for extension higher or 3 waves bounce at least.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this blog, we are going to take a look at the Elliott Wave chart of Natural Gas (NG_F). The 4 hour chart update from 20 April shows that cycle from May 11, 2019 high ended at 1.519 low. The commodity then bounced higher as a double three. Up from 1.519 low, Natural Gas ended wave W at 1.918 high. The pullback in wave X ended at 1.555 low. The pair then pushed higher in wave Y. The 100% extension of wave W-X where wave Y can potentially end is at 1.957 - 2.206 area, shown with a blue box. The blue box area is the area where we expect sellers to appear for 3 waves pullback at least.

Natural Gas (NG_F) 4.20.2020 4 Hour Elliott Wave Update


The 4 hour chart update from 27 April below shows that Natural Gas ended wave Y within blue box area at 1.973 high. From there, the commodity extended lower and made the minimum 3 waves pullback. The decline has already reached the 50% retracement of the previous leg higher. This allows sellers from the blue box a risk free position by moving stop loss to break even level. While below 1.973 high, the bounce in 3,7 or 11 swings is expected to fail. Natural Gas still needs to break below the previous low at 1.519 to confirm that the next leg lower has started and avoid further double correction.

Natural Gas (NG_F) 4.27.2020 4 Hour Elliott Wave Update


April 30 4 hour update below shows that Natural Gas failed to break below the previous low. The commodity only managed to do 3 waves pullback from the blue box. Afterwards, it continued to bounce higher and broke above the previous high at 1.973. This suggests Natural Gas is doing a double correction and the count was adjusted with the connector wave W at 1.973 high and wave X at 1.586 low. The 100% extension where wave Y can potentially end is at 2.048-2.330 area, marked with another blue box. As long as the 1.618 extension at 2.330 stays intact, the blue box should provide another reaction lower for a minimum 3 waves pullback.

Natural Gas (NG_F) 4.30.2020 4 Hour Elliott Wave Update


The latest 4 hour chart update from May 12 below shows that the commodity reached the second blue box area. It ended wave Y at 2.163 high and subsequently turned lower from there. The decline has already reached the 50% retracement of the rally from wave X low, again allowing sellers from the blue box another risk free position. The commodity still needs to break below the previous 1.519 low to resume the downside.

Natural Gas (NG_F) 5.12.2020 4 Hour Elliott Wave Update

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

As a larger context, the rally in Russell 2000 (RTY) from 3.19.2020 low took the form of an impulsive structure. Up from there, wave (1) ended at 1180.3 and wave (2) pullback ended at 1029.7. Index then resumed higher in wave (3) and ended at 1265.6 and wave (4) pullback ended at 1148.5. The final leg wave (5) ended at 1374. This move also completed wave ((1)) in higher degree and ended cycle from 3.19.2020 low. Wave ((2)) pullback is in progress to correct cycle from 3.19.2020 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the Index turns higher again.

The 1 hour chart below shows the correction in wave ((2)). The internal subdivision is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((1)) high at 1374, wave (A) ended at 1220.1 as an impulse in lesser degree. Wave 1 of (A) ended at 1353.6, wave 2 of (A) ended at 1370.60, wave 3 of (A) ended at 1236.5, wave 4 of (A) ended at 1258.80, and wave 5 of (A) ended at 1220.10.

Up from there, wave (B) bounce ended at 1341.6 as a zigzag in lesser degree. Wave A of (B) ended at 1303.7, wave B of (B) ended at 1245.6, and wave C of (B) ended at 1341.70. Wave (C) is now in progress as 5 waves impulse and can see more downside to reach 1150 - 1187 area. This is the 100% - 123.6% Fibonacci extension of (A)-(B). From this area, Index may see buyers for more upside or 3 waves bounce at least.

Russell 2000 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this technical blog, we are going to take a look at the past performance of GE 1-Hour Elliott wave Charts. That we presented to our members. In which, the decline from the 3/26/2020 peak is taking place as an ending diagonal structure in higher degree wave (5) with the sub-division of 3-3-3-3-3 structure in each lower. Also, the decline from that peak showed a lower sequence with a bearish sequence stamp called for more downside to take place. Therefore, our members knew that the sequence is incomplete. And selling the intraday bounce in 3 or 7 swings into the direction of the right side tag remained the preferred path. We will explain the Elliott wave structure & selling opportunity our members took below.

GE 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart


GE 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart from 5/08/2020 Pre-Market update. In which, the bounce to $6.99 high ended wave 2 of a diagonal. Down from there, the decline in red wave 3 unfolded as a zigzag structure. Whereas wave ((a)) ended at $5.97 low. Wave ((b)) bounce was expected to find sellers at the blue box area at $6.36- $6.54 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of (w)-(x). From there, the stock was expected to see sellers looking for the next extension lower or for 3 wave reaction lower at least.

GE 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart


Here's the 1 Hour Chart of GE from 5/13/2020 Midday update. Showing the reaction lower taking place from the blue box area at $6.36- $6.54. As we can clearly see that the stock was able to make new lows. Allowed members to create a risk-free position shortly after taking the short trade.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

$FXY Elliott Wave & Longer Term Cycles

Firstly the $FXY instrument inception date was 2/12/2007. The instrument tracks changes of the value of the Japanese Yen versus the US Dollar. There is plenty of data going back into the longer term 1970’s time frame available for the currency cross rate in the USDJPY. The foreign exchange pair shows a larger degree time frame low is in place in October 2011 at 75.57. Comparatively, the FXY instrument reflects a price high at 130.22 in October 2011.

The analysis continues below the FXY Monthly chart.



Secondly the FXY instrument mirrors USDJPY price highs and lows inversely as the initial above paragraph suggests. In the FXY instrument the decline from the October 2011 high into the January 2015 lows is an Elliott wave impulse. Internally there are a couple of degrees shown there in the red & blue colors that finished the black wave ((I)). From the January 2015 lows the bounce higher in both price and momentum indicators suggested the cycle lower had ended there.

The analysis continues below the FXY Weekly chart.



In conclusion: As the FXY weekly chart suggests the instrument ended a larger degree cycle in an Elliott wave impulse of five waves lower in January 2015. The bounce from there is in five waves as well however of smaller degree in the wave (a) in blue that ended August 2016. The price action from there has been sideways and in three swing moves. Moreover this leaves the impression the instrument is in a triangle wave (b) in blue. That suggests price will be constricted for some time in between the red “a” 81.33 lows & “b” 93.23 highs. While this plays out with price remaining above the January 2017 lows the FXY can see a turn higher. It can reach the 100.87 – 105.51 area before the larger degree time frame bearish cycle takes over again taking prices substantially lower.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

The decline in Pound Sterling from 4.15.2020 high is unfolding as a 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave structure, Down from 4.15,2020 high, wave 1 ended at 1.2245 and bounce in wave 2 ended at 1.2643. Wave 3 is currently in progress as an impulse in lesser degree. Down from wave 2 at 1.2643, wave ((i)) ended at 1.2264 and bounce in wave ((ii)) ended at 1.2467. Pair then resumes lower in wave ((iii)) with subdivision as another impulse. Wave (i) of ((iii)) ended at 1.228, and bounce in wave (ii) of ((iii)) ended at 1.2378. Wave (iii) of ((iii)) ended at 1.2164, and wave (iv) of ((iii)) is proposed complete at 1.224.

Expect pair to extend lower in wave (v) of ((iii)) lower, then bounce in wave ((iv)) before another leg lower in wave ((v)). The 5 waves down should end wave 3 from 4.15.2020 high. Potential target for wave 3 is 161.8% extension of wave 1 which comes at 1.199. While pivot at 1.2467 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for more downside

Pound Sterling (GBPUSD) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of BABA stock, published in members area of the website. As our members know, BABA has been reacting nicely from blue box areas. Recently the stock found buyers, after completing Elliott Wave Zig Zag Pattern. In further text we’re going to explain Elliott Wave Forecasts.

BABA 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 5.4.2020
BABA has reached extreme zone from the 04/17 peak at 192.15-188.05 . You can see that area on the chart below marked as a blue box . Proposed cycle from the April 17th peak is unfolding as Elliott Wave Zig Zag. We expect buyers to appear at 192.15-188.05 for 3 waves bounce at least. As our members know Blue Boxes are no enemy areas , giving us 85% chance to get a bounce.

You can learn more about Elliott Wave Zig Zag Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.



BABA 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 5.6.2020
BABA found buyers at 192.15-188.05 ( Blue Box area) as we expected. Elliott Wave Zig Zag Pattern completed at 189.52 low. Current view suggests BABA is correcting cycle from the 216.84 peak, when cycle from the May 4th low can be unfolding as double three pattern. Cycle from the low looks incomplete at the moment and we expect more short term strength up toward 203.0-208.4 area. At that zone sellers should ideally appear for 3 waves pull back at least.



BABA 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 5.14.2020
Rally from the 05/04 low turned into 5 waves structure. Anyway sellers appeared right at the 203.0-208.4 ( previous blue box area ) and we got pull back as expected. Pull back against the 189.5 low is also unfolding as Elliott Wave Zig Zag. We expect more short term weakness toward 195.75-190.21 area where buyers should ideally appear again for further rally or 3 waves bounce alternatively. We don't recommend selling the stock.



BABA 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 5.14.2020
The stock found buyers again at 195.75-190.21 blue box area. We got nice bounce after completing Elliott Wave Zig Zag pattern.

Keep in mind not every chart is trading recommendation. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site.



Elliott Wave Forecast

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Divergence trading patterns can signal traders of possible trade setups. There are 2 types of divergence patterns, regular divergence and hidden divergence. Both patterns can signal a trader on which side to trade the market. A divergence pattern is when price is moving in one direction but the oscillator indicator is moving in a different direction.

Regular (Trend Reversal Pattern) : When price is in a uptrend making a higher high and the oscillator indicator is making a higher low this is a regular bearish divergence pattern. When price is in a downtrend making a lower low but the oscillator indicator is making a lower high this is a regular bullish divergence pattern. This pattern is a sign of a trend reversal.

Hidden (Trend Continuation Pattern) : When price is in a uptrend making a higher low and the oscillator indicator is making a lower low this is a hidden bullish divergence pattern. When price is in a downtrend making a lower high but the oscillator indicator is making a higher high this is a hidden bearish divergence pattern. This pattern is a sign of trend continuation.

Both patterns can be found during a trending sequence. A trending sequence is when the instrument is on a higher high/higher low sequence (HH/HL) for an uptrend and on a lower low/lower high sequence (LL/LH) for a downtrend.

There are many different oscillator indicators that a trader can use to spot divergence patterns. RSI, Stochastic, CCI and MACD are some of the most used. In the EURJPY chart below the MACD indicator was used to spot the patterns to catch the move lower. Most traders just use the signal lines of the MACD to spot divergence. The more consistent way to catch true divergence patterns using the MACD is to spot the patterns on both the signal lines and the histogram simultaneously.

EURJPY Daily Chart May 6/2020 : Regular bearish divergence (trend reversal pattern) was visible in January 2020 when price registered higher highs but the MACD indicator did not. After, price reversed lower and started a downtrend. When price confirmed a downtrend by making lower lows/lower highs a hidden bearish divergence (trend continuation pattern) was visible in March 2020 when price registered a lower high but the MACD indicator registered a higher high. After, price continued the trend lower registering new lower lows and hitting the target level for +710 pips from the January first bearish regular (trend reversal) pattern. *NOTE* Signal lines + histogram together on the MACD indicator was used to spot the patterns.



TIP: Always have multiple strategies all lined up before entering a trade. Never trade using one simple strategy. When multiple strategies line up it allows a trader to see a clearer trade setup.

Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade. Hope you enjoyed this article and follow me on Twitter for updates and questions> @AidanFX or chat me on Skype > EWF Aidan Chan

*** Always use proper risk/money management according to your account size ***

At Elliottwave-Forecast we cover 78 instruments (Forex, Commodities, Indices, Stocks and ETFs) in 4 different timeframes and we offer 5 Live Session Webinars everyday. We do Daily Technical Videos, Elliott Wave Trade Setup Videos and we have a 24 Chat Room. Our clients are always in the loop for the next market move.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

EURGBP Technical Analysis

On May 5/2020 I posted on social media (Stocktwits/Twitter) @AidanFX "$EURGBP will be watching for possible buying opportunities."

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart May 8.2020 : The charts below was also posted on social media (StockTwits/Twitter) @AidanFX May 8/2020 showing that a bullish pattern (blue) has formed and price has entered the buy zone looking for another move higher. Bullish divergence market patterns (light blue) and a possible bullish Elliott Wave impulse count was also visible which added more confirmation that a rally higher could happen. I called for traders to BUY the pair and to watch for price to break above the black trend line to confirm bulls have taken control. The bottom chart was posted May 4/2020 showing the same blue bullish market pattern calling for the move higher.



EURGBP 1 Hour Chart May 4/2020



EURGBP 1 Hour Chart May 11/2020 : Chart below shows price breaks higher and broke above the black trend line level confirming bulls have taken control. BUY trades entered and expected a continuation of higher price action to happen in the coming days. Price has hit the 1:2 RR target but I continued to hold full positions for another round higher.



EURGBP 1 Hour Chart May 15/2020 : Price rallies higher, respects the moving average signalling bullish momentum and forms another bullish divergence pattern pushing price higher. Price reaches 1:5 RR target for +185 pips. If you followed me on Twitter/Stocktwits you too could have caught the EURGBP move higher.



Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade. Hope you enjoyed this article and follow me on Twitter for updates and questions> @AidanFX or chat me on Skype > EWF Aidan Chan

*** Always use proper risk/money management according to your account size ***

At Elliottwave-Forecast we cover 78 instruments (Forex, Commodities, Indices, Stocks and ETFs) in 4 different timeframes and we offer 5 Live Session Webinars everyday. We do Daily Technical Videos, Elliott Wave Trade Setup Videos and we have a 24 Chat Room. Our clients are always in the loop for the next market move.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

SAP SE is a multinational corporation which is well known as a producer of the enterprise software being used in managing business operations and customer relations. Founded in 1972 and headquartered in Walldorf, Germany, the company's most famous product is the enterprise resource planning (ERP) software. The company is a part of both DAX30 and of SX5E indices. In recent weeks, SAP contributes also actively in the fight against COVID-19 by developing of the contact tracing software. However, will that acttivity help the stock price to recover from the recent fall?

SAP Monthly Elliott Wave Analysis 05.18.2020
The monthly chart below shows the SAP stock $SAP traded at XETRA. From the all-time lows, the stock price has developed its first significant push higher in wave (I) of super cycle degree. This impulsive move up has printed a top in September 2000 at 77.50. From the peak, the wave (II) has provided a consolidation of the stock price in 3 waves lower as a zigzag correction towards the October 2002 lows at 9.92. So now, that level became the starting point of a larger move to the upside. The rally higher is the wave (III) of the super cycle degree. As a matter of fact, it reveals a clearly visible Elliott wave impulsive wave structure. Now, it is the preferred view that the wave (III) remains still in progress.

Within the super cycle in wave (III), the red wave I has ended in April 2006 at 47.68, the red wave II lower has found a bottom in October 2008 at 20.76. From that level on, the wave III has provided an extension higher towards the all-time highs in February 2020.



SAP Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis 05.18.2020 and Outlook
The weekly chart below shows in more detail the subdivisions of the extended wave III of (III). Wave III has peaked in February 2020 at 129.60. From there, a sharp decline in wave IV has delivered the march low at 81.92. While above there, the price can be now turning up in wave V of (III). In short-term cycles, wave ((1)) of primary degree is currently being corrected lower in the wave ((2)). The pullback should hold above 81.92. Then, SAP stock price should see waves ((3)), ((4)) and ((5)) of V to end the cycle from 2002 lows.

The target area for the termination point of wave V will be 140.30-158.65. This projection area originates from the inverse Fibonacci relationship of 1.23-1.618 between the lengths of the red waves IV and V. Alternatively, the stock price can do another swing higher and fall lower in a double correction. It can also do a sideways action in wave IV as a triangle. The preferred view remains that the prices will remain above the march lows. Therefore, buyers can enter the market in 3, 7, 11 swings for more upside towards 140.30-158.65 area or for at least another leg higher.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Short Term Elliott Wave view in SPY (S&P 500 ETF) suggests the rally from 3.23.2020 ended at 296.77 as wave ((1)). Pullback in wave ((2)) is proposed complete at 273.07 as the 30 minute chart below shows. The ETF still needs to break above wave ((1)) at 296.77 to confirm wave ((2)) has ended and creates a bullish sequence from 3.23.2020. Internal of wave ((2)) unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Wave (A) ended at 278.69, wave (B) ended at 294.8, and wave (C) ended at 273.07. Wave (C) ended at the blue box, which is 100% - 123.6% Fibonacci extension of wave (A). From there, the ETF has turned higher in wave ((3)) as an impulsive Elliott Wave structure.

Up from 273.07, wave 1 ended at 286.45 and wave 2 pullback ended at 281.34. Wave 3 remains in progress as an impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave 2 at 281.34, wave ((i)) ended at 285.08, wave ((ii)) ended at 281.89, and wave ((iii)) ended at 296.75. Expect wave ((iv)) pullback to find support while above 273.07 for more upside. As far as pivot at 273.07 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.

SPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Shopify (NYSE: SHOP) is one of the best performing technology stocks since its IPO back in 2015. As electronic commerce boomed in recent years, SHOP saw an enormous gain in value up to 2900% punting the stock as one of the fastest growing companies. Despite the majority of stock market being down in 2020%, SHOP was able to resume it's bullish trend and it's already up 80% Year-To-Date.

SHOP decline back in February was a technical 3 waves correction that faced the entire market and a major low was established on March 13 from where the stock started the next leg to the upside. Based on Elliott Wave Theory, the initial cycle since IPO unfolded as an impulsive 5 waves advance followed by a 3 waves pullback then the stock managed to break the previous peak. Consequently, Shopify opened a new bullish sequence from 2015 low suggesting another impulsive 5 waves advance to take place which a minimum target area at equal leg $899 - $1040 and a potential extension toward 1.618% Fib extension area $1265.

The impulsive nature of the move is allowing Bulls to maintain control over the trend until it reaches the next target and providing buyers with opportunities to join then main bullish trend during pullbacks in 3 , 7 or 11 swings.

SHOP Weekly Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of INDU. As our members know INDU has recently given us pull back against the March 18058 low. Pull back unfolded as Elliott Wave Zig Zag Pattern. We expected buyers to show at the Blue Box , calling for rally toward new highs or in 3 waves bounce at least. In the further text we are going to explain the Elliott Wave Pattern and the Forecast.

Before we take a look at the real market example, let’s explain Elliott Wave Zig Zag pattern.

Elliott Wave Zig Zag Pattern
Elliott Wave Zigzag is the most popular corrective pattern in Elliott Wave theory . It’s made of 3 swings which have 5-3-5 inner structure. Inner swings are labeled as A,B,C where A =5 waves, B=3 waves and C=5 waves. That means A and C can be either impulsive waves or diagonals. (Leading Diagonal in case of wave A or Ending in case of wave C) . Waves A and C must meet all conditions of being 5 wave structure, such as: having RSI divergency between wave subdivisions, ideal Fibonacci extensions and ideal retracements.

At the graphic below, we can see what Elliott Wave Zigzag structure looks like. 5 waves down in A, 3 waves bounce in B and another 5 waves down in C.



INDU 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 5.13.2020
We are getting pull back against the March 18058 low. Cycle from the 24806 peak is unfolding as (a)(b)(c) Elliott Wave Zig Zag pattern. First leg (A) blue unfolded as 5 waves down from the peak. Then we got 3 wave bounces in wave (B) , which has made deep retracement against the 24806 peak . And finally, we're doing last leg down (C) blue. Pull back looks incomplete at the moment. We expect more weakness, to complete 5 waves in (c) leg. We don’t recommend selling the Index.

You can learn more about Zig Zag Elliott Wave Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.



INDU 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 5.14.2020
Wave (C) is still in progress. The price hasn't reached equal legs (A)-(B). We expect another leg down toward 22887-22515 area ( blue box area). At the marked Blue Box area area we expect buyers to appear for further rally toward new highs ideally . As our members know Blue Boxes are no enemy areas , giving us 85% chance to get a bounce.



INDU 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 5.19.2020
INDU found buyers right at the blue box area :22887-22515 area. Pull back wave ((2)) ended as Elliott Wave Zig Zag at the 22696 low. We got nice rally from there, however need to see break above 04/30 peak to which would make bullish higher high sequences in the March 23th cycle. That would be confirmation next leg up is in progress. Short term cycle from the 22696 low is unfolding as 5 waves rally, when we can still be in 4 red pull back.

Keep in mind market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences.We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room



Elliott Wave Forecast

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Amazon stock (ticker: AMZN) continues to perform well as the demand of the service surges due to the Covid-19. The pandemic forces people to stay at home and buy a lot of things online, which is precisely the strength of Amazon. Technically, Elliott Wave view is calling the rally from March 16, 2020 low as a 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave structure.

The larger context (not shown in the short term chart below) suggests Amazon is trading within wave (5) as from March 16, 2020 low. Up from there, wave (1) ended at 1996 and wave (2) pullback ended at 1800. The stock then resumed higher in wave (3) towards 2475, and wave (4) pullback ended at 2245. Wave (5) remains in progress with internal subdivision as another impulse in lesser degree.

Up from wave (4) at 2245, wave 1 ended at 2419.67 and wave 2 pullback ended at 2337.80. The stock can see a few more highs before ending wave ((i)) of 3. Afterwards, it should pullback in wave ((ii)) of 3 before the rally resumes. Short term, as far as pivot at 2356 low stays intact, expect dips to continue to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.

Amazon (AMZN) 30 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

$EURGBP FX Pair Elliott Wave and Longer Term Cycles

Firstly as seen on the monthly chart below there is data back to January 1975 in the pair. The EUR part being derived from the German Deutsche Mark up until the point EURUSD currency existed.

Secondly as seen on the monthly chart below I will describe how I think the pair has risen thus far & what can be seen in the future. You can see the bounce from the February 1981 lows appears to be 3 swings to the November 1995 highs. There are usually a few counts that can be valid. This move appears to be a double three. I prefer to use momentum indicators to show when a cycle ends from any point in time. Whenever a proposed wave two, B, X or wave four of any degree has been taken by the momentum indicator it is likely it has ended that cycle whether it is up or down.

The analysis continues below the monthly chart.



From the November 1995 highs the pair declined hard enough to the May 2000 lows to suggest it was correcting the cycle from the February 1981 lows. The pair has not made another low since then. From the May 2000 lows it made another high in December 2008. From there it declined until July 2015 hard enough to suggest it was correcting the cycle up from the February 1981 low. That suggests the move from the February 1981 low to the December 2008 high was of three swings. The aforementioned December 2008 to July 2015 lows move appears to have been another typical three swings.

The analysis and Elliott Wave part of this continues below the weekly chart.



Thirdly and in conclusion. From the July 2015 lows it made a relatively clean five waves impulse higher to the August 2017 highs. From there the pair traded sideways to lower until it made another 5 waves up to the August 2019 highs. That finished an expanded flat structure. Then so much for the old rule of alternation, the decline to the December 2019 lows was five waves. This also completed a larger degree expanded flat. The pair should be bullish in the second larger degree while above there. While above the April 2020 lows during pullbacks expect the pair continues higher above the December 2008 highs.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this article, we will take a look at Southwest Airline (ticker: LUV) stock. The airlines industry and stock have been battered due to the corona virus. We do understand that the Fundamentals might not look great right now for the airlines industry. However, fundamentals can change in an hour, and anticipating the move is what matters at the end.

At EWF, we forecast the market using a combination of technical tools like the Elliott Wave Theory, distribution, RSI, cycles, sequences, and market correlations. We do understand not every trader looks at the market the same way. Many traders use fundamental analysis as the primary tool of trading, which is ok, as far as it works. We always forecast and trade the same way.

To avoid subjective interpretation, we do not like to present alternate views in our charts. We believe in the idea that a trader's best chance to succeed is to have a system and apply it over and over again with the same criteria. Southwest Airlines' price action is well defined and fits the requirements of a popular Elliott wave structure. An Ending Diagonal appears most of the time in a wave five and follows these guidelines:

• It appears as subdivision of wave 5 in an impulse or wave C in a zigzag
• Ending diagonal usually shows overlapping waves 1 and 4 and has shape like a wedge. The overlap between wave 1 and 4 is not a condition, however.
• The subdivision of an ending diagonal is 3-3-3-3-3.

The following chart is a representation of an ending diagonal:



We look at the following two charts from $LUV. One chart is in the daily time frame and the other is in 4 hour time frame. We can see how the instrument in the daily time frame seems to create an overlapping structure with lack of momentum. This fits very well with the criteria of an ending diagonal. Right now. we believe a wave ((3) in black degree ends at the low. Wave ((4)) bounce can be underway with 1 more push lower in wave ((5)).

However, a a huge low could have been formed as well, even when it is too early to tell. The confirmation that the final low is in place will be a break of the downtrend line or a break above wave ((2)) peak. The stock is now trading within a blue box, which is the inflection area where a turn can happen anytime. Reaching the blue box with an ending diagonal structure is enough information for us not to sell and to start looking for opportunity to buy.

Southwest Airlines (LUV) Daily Elliott Wave Chart


Downgrading the time frame, we look at the 4 Hour view below. We can see how the Instrument reacted higher from the blue box area. We can even count the ending diagonal completed. However, we want to wait for wave ((2)) peak to be broken before calling the low in place. The reaction of the lows from wave ((3)) seem to be impulsive. This leads us to believe after three waves pullback, more upside should take place within wave ((4)).

Southwest Airlines (LUV) 4 hour Elliott Wave Chart


In Conclusion, Southwest Airlines i close to turning higher. When the turn higher happens, a robust rally will take place. Secondly, World Indices will trade higher when this turn happens. After all, it is one market only. Thirdly, by looking at the Daily chart and structure and levels of South West Airlines. it is hard to see another leg lower than the one from 02.20.2020. Consequently, a significant low can be in place. Let's see what the future brings, but it is clear, we are here for the rally.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

GBPNZD broke below 3.19.2020 low (1.9899) creating an incomplete bearish sequence from 3.9.2020 high (2.182). Short term Elliott Wave View suggests the decline from 4.1.2020 high is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 4.1.2020 high, wave 1 ended at 2.01396 and wave 2 bounce ended at 2.0478. Internal of wave 2 unfolded as an Expanded Flat Elliott Wave structure. Wave ((a)) ended at 2.035, wave ((b)) ended at 2.011, and wave ((c)) of 2 finished at 2.0478.

Wave 3 is currently in progress and subdivides into another impulse in lesser degree. Down from 2.0478, wave ((i)) ended at 2.031 and wave ((ii)) bounce ended at 2.0471. Pair then resumed lower in wave ((iii)) towards 2.0057 and wave ((iv)) bounce ended at 2.0192. GBPNZD can see 1 more leg lower in the short term to end wave ((v)) of 3, then it should bounce in wave 4 before the decline resumes. Pair has potential target of 100 - 123.6% Fibonacci extension from 3.9.2020 high which comes at 1.868 - 1.913. Near term bounce should find sellers in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing for more downside.

GBPNZD 45 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart