Elliott Wave Analysis by EWF

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

USDJPY extended the rally this week and exceeded the peak seen on 20th May 2020. In this article, we would look at the forecast from start of the week and how we called it higher. We will show some charts presented to clients this week and explain the reason for calling the extension higher and also talk about what we are expecting next in the pair.

USDJPY 1 June 1 Hour London Elliott Wave Analysis
Chart below shows a double correction in wave 2 ended at 10.704 which was followed by a 5 waves rally which we labelled as wave ((i)), first wave of wave 3 higher. Pair experienced a pull back heading into the London update on Monday, we expected the pull back to complete above 107.04 and pair to resume higher in wave ((iii)) of 3.



USDJPY 2 June 1 Hour London Elliott Wave Analysis


USDJPY 2 June 1 Hour Midday Elliott Wave Analysis


USDJPY 3 June 1 Hour London Elliott Wave Analysis

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

The next entry in the theme of Corona Virus stocks is DocuSign. Biotech is not the only sector benefitting greatly from the COVID-19 oubreak, software is also making huge gains in some stocks. I am finding new software companies every single day that are making new All Time Highs. $DOCU has been on a monster run lately, lets check out what they do as a company:

“DocuSign, Inc. is an American company headquartered in San Francisco, California that allows organizations to manage electronic agreements. As part of the DocuSign Agreement Cloud, DocuSign offers eSignature, a way to sign electronically on different devices. DocuSign claims it has over 475,000 customers and hundreds of millions of users in more than 180 countries. Signatures processed by DocuSign are compliant with the US ESIGN Act, and the European Union's eIDAS regulation, including EU Advanced and EU Qualified Signatures.”

The rally in $DOCU seems to be an ongoing affair, but as always, remains very technical. Lets check out the Daily Elliot Wave view.

DocuSign Elliott Wave Daily View




Medium term term view from 11/20/2018 lows of 35.06. Wave ((1)) was set at 59.62 on 3/15/2019 and wave ((2)) at 43.13 on 8/14/2019. After that, Blue (1) was set at 92.55 on 2/19/2020 and Blue (2) at 64.88 on 3/12/2020. From there $DOCU is in a clear wave (3) of ((3)) advance with the bulls firmly in control. Blue (3) is still underway, with Red 3 expected to form a top in the near term.

In conclusion, this is not a stock for selling, we do not recommend selling at all, since the right side is bullish on daily view. After red 3 finds a top, a buying opportunity with an equal leg pullback in 3,7 or 11 swings may present itself.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Short Term Elliott Wave view in EURUSD suggests cycle from 5.14.2020 low is unfolding as a 5 waves Impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 5.14.2020 low, wave 1 ended at 1.1 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 1.0869. Pair then resumed higher again in wave 3 as another impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave 2 low at 1.0869, wave ((i)) ended at 1.0996 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 1.0932. Wave ((iii)) ended at 1.1154, and dips to 1.11 ended wave ((iv)). Final leg wave ((v)) of 3 ended at 1.1258.

Wave 4 pullback is now in progress to correct cycle from 5.25.2020 low before the rally resumes. The pullback should unfold in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the next leg higher starts. Potential target for wave 4 is 23.6 - 38.2 Fibonacci retracement of wave 3 at 1.11 - 1.116. This area, if reached, can see buyers for more upside or 3 waves bounce at least. Wave 4 ideally doesn't go below 50% of wave 3 or below 1.106. As far as pivot at 1.087 low stays intact, expect pair to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing.

EURUSD 45 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Exxon Mobil (ticker: XOM) shows an incomplete bullish sequence from 3.23.2020 low favoring more upside. Short term, the rally from 5.15.2020 low is unfolding as a 5 waves Impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 5.15.2020 low, wave 1 ended at 46.63 and wave 2 dips ended at 43.3. Wave 3 is now in progress as another impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave 2 low at 43.3, wave ((i)) ended at 47.14 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 44.37.

Up from there, the stock rallies and ended wave (i) at 45.97 and dips to 44.80 ended wave (ii). Wave (iii) ended at 49.40 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 48.16. While above there, and more importantly above 44.37, expect the stock to resume higher in wave wave (v). This move also ends wave ((iii)) in higher degree, then it should pullback in wave ((iv)) and then resumes higher again. The stock should see a few more highs to complete 5 waves up from 5.15.2020 low.

Short term, XOM still needs to break above 49.40 to avoid a double correction. Short Term target higher is 61.8 - 76.4 Fibonacci extension from 3.23.2020 low which comes at 51.9 - 54.7 area. Stock eventually has scope to reach 100% - 123.6% Fibonacci extension from 3.23.2020 low which comes at 59.17 - 63.65.

Exxon Mobil 30 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

The coronavirus pandemic has been a boon to social media, streaming, and online shopping companies. As government around the world recommends social distancing and people reduce unnecessary travel, they spend more time at home consuming social media and streaming content. More people also shop their daily necessities online.

One of the beneficiaries of the Covid-19 outbreak is Facebook (ticker: FB). Late last month, the social media powerhouse introduced a new Facebook Shops which will compete directly with Amazon. It's a mobile-first shopping platform where businesses can create an online store on Facebook and Instagram for free. Facebook Shops will allow businesses to create a mobile version of their e-commerce sites directly on Facebook and other related family of services. The push to the e-commerce comes at the perfect time as retailers around the world are struggling due to the coronavirus pandemic. This push can help expand the advertising business and help Facebook compete within the booming e-commerce along companies like Amazon.

Facebook (FB) Weekly Elliott Wave Chart


The selloff in Facebook due to coronavirus in March earlier this year failed to break below the December 17, 2018 low. Since then, it has recovered and made a new all-time high. The weekly Elliott Wave chart above suggests that the move higher is within wave (V) from 12.17.2018 low. Alternatively, the selloff to 12.17.2018 low can be wave (II) and now the stock is in wave III. Either way, it's looking for further upside.

Cycle from 12.17.2018 low now has reached 100% at 229, but unless it's a Flat from wave (III), then the stock should continue to rally. At minimum, we should be able to see 5 waves up from 12.17.2018 low to end wave (V). At present, only 3 waves up can clearly be seen. Furthermore, wave III usually can extend higher to 161.8% Fibonacci extension which comes at 301.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

The world largest home improvement retailer Home Depot (NYSE: HD) sales growth doubled its pace from the prior quarter despite reduced operating hours and cancelled promotions because of the COVID-19 pandemic which pressured most of the retail industry.

Early this year, HD ended the cycle from 2008 low and did a sharp 40% drop along side the rest of the market. The decline didn't last long as the stock managed to recover the loss and it's currently up 13.3% year-to-date. If we take a look at the Elliott Wave structure within the monthly chart, HD is showing an impulsive advance from all time lows and the recent break into new all time highs puts the stock with the minimum amount of swings for a 5 waves move.

Home Depot (HD) Monthly Elliott Wave Chart


The long term trend for HD remains bullish based on the impulsive structure but the pressure is mounting as the stock is entering the stage where it will define the main path : either an Elliott Wave extension within wave (V) of the super cycle to take place or the stock is ending the Grand super cycle.

The 4 Hour rally from March 2020 low remains in progress but as the stock is entering the extreme area $245 - $267 then the risk is becoming higher for Longs which still can aim for the 200% Fib extension area $289 if the bulls sustain the trend.

When the current cycle in wave I ends, HD will be looking to correct it in 3, 7 or 11 swings in wave II which will take place during this summer. The key level for the pullback will be 3/18 low $140.63 as the stock is expected to remain supported above it and buyers are expected to show up for the next Long opportunity.

Home Depot (HD) 4H Elliott Wave Chart


Home Depot (HD) Monthly Alternative View

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this blog, we are going to take a look at the Elliottwave chart of RTY_F. Daily chart below shows that RTY_F ended the decline from January 17, 2020 high at 948.50 low. Since reaching that March 19 low, the index has continued to extend higher. From 948 low, the index extended higher in wave ((1)), which ended at 1374 high. This is followed by a pullback in wave ((2)), which unfolded as a zig-zag and ended at 1175 low. The index has managed to continue to extend higher from that low. Now, it shows an incomplete bullish sequence after it manages to break above the previous wave ((1)) high. The 100% -161.8% extension of wave ((1))-((2)) where next leg higher can target is between 1605-1866 area.

RTY_F Daily Elliott Wave Update


The 4 hour chart below shows that the index is currently within wave (3) of ((3)). From 1175 low, wave (1) ended at 1356 high. The pullback is wave (2) ended at 1316 low. Afterwards, the index continued to extend higher and ended wave 1 at 1440 high. The rally broke above previous wave ((1)) high to confirm that the next leg higher has started. Wave 2 pullback unfolded as a flat and ended at 1368 low. From there, RTY_F has managed to make new highs. As long as the pivot at 1175 low stays intact, expect the dips in 3,7, or 11 swings to be supported for more upside. The index then has the scope to continue higher until it reaches the equal leg blue box area in the Daily chart.

RTY_F 4 Hour 6.4.2020 Elliott Wave Update

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of EURCAD. As our members know, recently the pair gave us 3 waves bounce against the 1.53878 peak. Recovery unfolded as Elliott Wave Zig Zag pattern (a)(b)(c). Once the price reached equal legs (a)-(b) we knew that sellers will appear there for a 3 wave pull back at least. In the further text we are going to explain the Elliott Wave Pattern and the Forecast.

Before we take a look at the real market example, let’s explain Elliott Wave Zigzag pattern.

Elliott Wave Zigzag is the most popular corrective pattern in Elliott Wave theory . It’s made of 3 swings which have 5-3-5 inner structure. Inner swings are labeled as A,B,C where A =5 waves, B=3 waves and C=5 waves. That means A and C can be either impulsive waves or diagonals. (Leading Diagonal in case of wave A or Ending in case of wave C) . Waves A and C must meet all conditions of being 5 wave structure, such as: having RSI divergency between wave subdivisions, ideal Fibonacci extensions and ideal retracements.



EURCAD Elliott Wave Analysis 06.03.2020
EURCAD is correcting the cycle from the 1.5387 peak. Recovery looks incomplete at the moment, as we got 5 waves up from the lows. Suggesting we have ended only first leg of potential Elliott Wave Zig Zag Pattern . Consequently we are calling for 3 waves pull back in (b) blue and another leg up (c) which should be made out of 5 waves.We don't recommend buying the pair and favor the short side from higher levels once ((ii)) recovery reaches its extremes. ( blue box)

You can learn more about Zig Zag Elliott Wave Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.





EURCAD Elliott Wave Analysis 06.05.2020
At the chart below we can see what Elliott Wave Zig Zag Pattern looks like in real market example. We got 3 waves pull back (b) blue and then 5 waves up in (c) blue as we expected. That was classic example of Elliott Wave Zig Zag Pattern. The price reached equal legs area at 1.5260-1.5353 ( blue box) . We expect sellers to appear there for proposed decline or 3 wave pull back at least. As our members know Blue Boxes are no enemy areas , giving us 85% chance to get a pull back. At this stage we are calling recovery completed at 1.5344 high.



EURCAD Elliott Wave Analysis 06.05.2020
The pair made further decline and separated from the last peak. Members who took short trades are now enjoying profits within risk free positions. Now we would like to see further extension down and break below ((ii)) - 06/02 low which would be confirmation wave ((iii)) is in progress.

Keep in mind market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences.We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.



Elliott Wave Forecast

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

$GBPCHF FX Pair Swings & Long Term Cycles

Firstly as seen on the monthly chart below there is data back to the early 1970’s readily available in the pair. It obviously had a central bank intervention during the month of October 1974 where price topped out at 6.3387. Most all Elliott Wave practitioners are geared to the notion that a trend will be in 5 waves and a correction against the trend will be in 3 waves back against the trend. That is generally true especially if counting the stock market indices however it is really hard and next to impossible to find long term forex charts like this that will show a clean 5 waves.

Secondly with the aforementioned thought in mind I will describe how I think the pair has declined thus far & what can be seen in the future. You can see the decline from October 1974 highs has a line drawn down to the October 1992 lows. That can be counted in Elliott wave a couple of best ways at a minimum and as usual there are usually a few counts that can be valid. This point at the October 1992 lows appears to be a double three. I prefer to use momentum indicators to show when a cycle ends from any point in time. Whenever a proposed wave two, B, X or wave four of any degree has been taken by the momentum indicator it is likely it has ended that cycle whether it is up or down.

The analysis continues below the monthly chart.



From the October 1992 low the pair bounced hard enough to the April 2000 highs to suggest it correcting the cycle from the October 1974 high in a flat structure. The pair made another low since then in August 2011. I suggested in a previous February 2020 article it eventually will take out that low. It did in March 2020.

The analysis concludes below the weekly chart.



Thirdly and in conclusion. The bounce from the August 2011 low ended at the November 2015 highs in three swings again. The pair declined from there in 3 swings again to the August 2019 lows. The bounce from there was strong enough to suggest it was correcting the cycle from the November 2015 highs. The pair can see a relatively short term bounce toward the 1.2816 area. While it remains below the 12/13/19 highs the pair can see new lows later under the March 2020 lows.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Incomplete bullish sequence in S&P 500 (SPX) from 3.23.2020 low suggests the Index should stay supported. Up from the Covid-19 selloff low on 3.23.2020, Index has resumed higher as a 5 waves Impulse Elliott Wave structure. Wave ((1)) ended at 2954.86 and pullback in wave ((2)) ended at 2766.64. Index has resumed higher in wave ((3)) with the internal as another 5 waves Impulse in lesser degree.

Up wave ((2)) low, wave (1) ended at 2968.09 and wave (2) dips ended at 2933.59. Index then resumes higher in wave (3) which subdivides in further 5 waves. Wave 1 of (3) ended at 3021.72 and wave 2 of (3) ended at 2969.75. Expect a few more highs to end wave 3 of (3), then Index should pullback in wave 4 of (3) before another leg higher to complete wave 5 of (3). Afterwards, it should see wave (4) dips followed by 1 more push higher to end wave (5) of ((3)).

Near term, while pullback stays above 2937.77, and more importantly above 2766.64, expect Index to extend higher. Potential target higher is 100% - 123.6% Fibonacci extension from 3.23.2020 low which comes at 3528.2 - 3707.9. As far as pivot at 2937.77 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for more upside.

SPX 45 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Nasdaq (NQ_F) has made an all-time high suggesting that the Covid-19 correction is over at 6628.75. Index has now resumed higher and short term 30 minutes chart below suggests the rally to 9742.5 ended wave 1 and pullback to 9572.34 ended wave 2. Wave 3 is currently in progress and the subdivision is unfolding as a 5 waves Elliott Wave structure.

Up from wave 2 low at 9572.34, wave (i) ended at 9704.25 and wave (ii) dips ended at 9601.75. Wave (iii) ended at 9846.25, wave (iv) ended at 9789.50 and wave (v) ended at 9875.50. This 5 waves move ended wave ((i)) in larger degree. Pullback in wave ((ii)) then ended at 9747.00 as a double three where wave (w) ended at 9796.5, wave (x) ended at 9838.75, and wave (y) of ((ii)) ended at 9747.

Index then resumes higher in wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)) at 9747, wave (i) ended at 9901 and wave (ii) pullback ended at 9811.50. Wave (iii) ended at 10005.25 and wave (iv) pullback ended at 9942.25. Expect the Index to end wave (v) of ((iii)) soon, then pullback in wave ((iv)) before resuming the rally again. As far as pivot at 9572.34 low stays intact, expect dips to continue finding support in 3, 7, or 11 swing.

Nasdaq 30 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this technical blog, we are going to take a look at the past performance of 1 hour Elliott Wave Charts of the Nifty index from India. In which, the rally from 24 March 2020 low unfolded as an impulse 5 wave structure. Thus suggested that it’s a continuation pattern. And as per Elliott wave theory after a 3 waves pullback, it should do another extension higher in 5 waves impulse structure at least. Therefore, we advised members not to sell the instrument & trade the no enemy areas ( blue boxes) as per Elliott wave hedging remained the preferred path looking for 3 wave reaction higher at least. We will explain the structure & forecast below:

Nifty 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart


Nifty 1 Hour Elliott Wave from 5/18/2020 NY Midday update. In which, the rally to 9889 high ended wave ((1)). Down from there, the index corrected lower the cycle from 3/24/2020 low. The internals of that pullback unfolded as a zigzag structure where wave (A) ended in lesser degree 5 waves at 9116 low. Up from there, wave (B) bounce ended as a lesser degree flat correction at 9584 high. Down from there, wave (C) managed to reach the blue box area at 8808-8624 100%-123.6% Fibonacci extension area of (A)-(B). From where the buyers were expected to appear in the index looking for another 5 waves rally or to do a 3 wave reaction higher at least.

Nifty 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart


Here's 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart of Nifty From 5/28/2020 New York Update. In which, the index is showing reaction higher taking place from the blue box area. Allowed members to create a risk-free position shortly after taking the longs at 8808-8624 blue box area.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this article, we will take a look at American Airlines (AAL). Currently, the instrument could be within the process of turning to much higher levels. American Airlines (AAL) was hit with selling pressure during the financial market sell-off in March 2020. Nevertheless, the whole Transportation Sector was already within a correction cycle before Covid-19 Pandemic happens across the world. We at EWF do not pay much attention to fundamentals or events. We understand both of those are used to justify moves in the market, but the Technical always rules the Market. Back in March 24,2020, we presented an article explaining how the dips across the Sector and consequently in AAL was a huge buying opportunity, especially at the Green Box highlighted in the chart.

American Airlines (AAL) Weekly Elliott Wave Update


The weekly chart shows that the dip in AAL reached the Green Box. It has since started a recovery that is looking promising at this moment. The reaction higher as of right now is still in three waves. However, if the instrument manages to make another high, then the rally will become five waves. The structure of the rally will then become impulsive. Consequently, this would confirm that the low at the Green Box could already be in place. If AAL continues to extend higher, it could reach the area between $24.00-$26.00 to end the cycle from May low. Subsequently, three waves pullback will follow to correct that cycle, which then will provide another buying opportunity.

American Airlines (AAL) 6.9.2020 4 hour Elliott Wave Update

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

$TLT Elliott Wave & Longer Term Cycles

Firstly the ETF fund TLT inception date was on July 22, 2002. This instrument seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of or in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities twenty years or more remaining. There is a lack of data before July 22, 2002. This is established. This article will focus on the larger uptrend cycle from there which is presumed finished a cycle higher from those lows in wave ((a)) in July 2016. The pullback from that high appeared to be an Elliott wave zig zag structure in three waves into the November 2018 wave ((b)) lows.

The analysis continues below the monthly chart.



Secondly: The aforementioned pullback lower in the monthly chart wave ((b)) was strong enough to suggest it was correcting the cycle up from the all time lows. Thus it ended that cycle. From those November 2018 lows the instrument has made another high above the July 2016 highs creating a bullish sequence. This sequence higher from the November 2018 lows appears to be incomplete. On the weekly chart shown below, Elliott wave corrective sequences are in either three, seven or eleven swings. Impulses are in either five, nine or thirteen swings. It is obvious the three swings lower from the July 2016 highs into the October 2018 lows were of three swings.

The analysis continues and concludes below the weekly chart.



Thirdly and in conclusion the cycle up from the October 2018 lows appears to be an impulse that is incomplete. The cycle up from there ended at the March 2020 highs. Down from there a cycle in "a" completed as well as a wave "b" in April 2020. While below there it can see the 131.47 area to correct the cycle up from the October 2018 lows before a turn back higher.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this blog, we are going to take a look at the Elliott Wave chart of ZS_F (Soybean Futures) and how we called it higher. The 1 hour London chart update from June 2 shows that Soybean has ended the cycle from May 22 low as wave ((i)) at 852.2 high. The sub-waves of the rally unfolded as 5 waves impulsive structure. Elliott Wave theory dictates that 3 waves pullback should happen afterwards before the rally continues. Soybean then did a pullback in wave ((ii)) as a double three. Wave (w) ended at 838.6 low. The bounce in wave (x) ended at 849 high. The commodity then declined lower and ended wave (y) at 834 low. As long as that pivot at 834 low holds, Soybean is expected to continue to extend higher.

ZS_F 6.2.2020 1 Hour London Elliott Wave Update


The 1 hour Asia chart update from June 5 shows that Soybean continued the rally from wave ((ii)) low. The commodity extended higher and broke above previous wave ((i)) high, confirming that wave ((ii)) low is already in place and that the next leg higher has already started.

ZS_F 6.5.2020 1 Hour Asia Elliott Wave Update


The latest London chart update from June 12 shows that Soybean ended wave ((iii)) at 873.4 high. Wave (iv) pullback ended at 856.4 low. While above 833.7 low, expect the dip in 3,7, or 11 swings to continue to find support for more upside. Soybean can still push higher in wave ((v)). However, the commodity needs to break above previous wave ((iii)) high to confirm it.

ZS_F 6.12.2020 1 Hour London Elliott Wave Update

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

The next entry in the theme of Corona Virus stocks is Waitr Holdings Inc ($WTRH). Biotech and software are not the only sectors benefitting greatly from the COVID-19 outbreak. The food delivery services are also making huge gains since the lows. Waitr has had an unbelievable run, let's take a look at the history of the company:

“Waitr, Inc. was founded at McNeese State University as a project lead by Chris Meaux. It quickly spread throughout Louisiana and across the southern United States. In 2018, the company was acquired through a $308 million reverse takeover by Tilman Fertitta's Lancadia holdings, which is part of the Fertitta Entertainment portfolio. Later that year, Waitr acquired Minneapolis-based Bite Squad for $321 million. In 2019, The company announced it would lay-off all of their employed drivers, and move to a contract-only model, similar to Grubhub and DoorDash.”

The Elliott wave count on Waitr is fairly clean, and points to more gains ahead. Lets take a look at the daily view.

Daily Elliott Wave View:


Medium term term view from 11/14/2019 lows of 0.21. Wave ((1)) was set at 0.57 on 12/4/2019 and wave ((2)) at 0.26 on 3/12/2020. After that, a sharp increase to Black ((3)) took place, which topped on 3/19/2020 at 4.40. This was an increase of 1600% in the span of 6 days. After that, Waitr has set a black ((4)) bottom, and is currently working on breakout out above previous ((3)) peak. Blue (1) of 5 is favoured to be set, with blue (2) also set. It is possible blue (2) can do a marginal new low, but the structure would remain the same, which is favouring a breakout above ((3)) to complete the sequence.

In conclusion, Waitr is favoured to advance in the final ((5)), with a breakout over the previous $4.40 peak expected to take place in the near to medium term future.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

The GPBUSD pair last week formed a temporary top and reversed lower. Towards the end of the trading week GBPUSD made lower lows and lower highs signalling the pair was in a downside trend. Traders use confluence zones to catch possible trade setups. Confluence zones are when 2 or more trading techniques/strategies come together and form a high probability BUY/SELL zone. Traders can spot confluence zones on any time frame. The charts below will show visible signals calling for the GBPUSD pair to push lower.

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart June 12 2020



On the 1 hour chart a bearish trend reversal divergence pattern (orange) formed. Price reacted with a move lower June 10 2020 which then started a lower low lower high sequence. Price also broke the higher high higher low sequence which added more confirmation for a trader to look for more downside price action. The confluence zone was spotted when price hit the static support/resistance level (green), the 50 moving average dynamic support/resistance (blue) and the 0.382% Fib retracement level (pink) which all converged in the same area. A bearish trend continuation divergence pattern (orange) also formed in the same area which added more confidence the pair would push lower. When a high probability trade setup is spotted a trader should switch to a smaller time frame to time the entry.

GBPUSD 15 Minute Chart June 12 2020



When scaling down to the 15 minute time frame the chart also showed a similar confluence zone. The static resistance level (green), 200 moving average dynamic resistance (blue), and a Fibonacci cluster 0.382% Fib. retracement level (pink) and 0.618% Fib. retracement level (light blue) formed the confluence zone. A bearish trend continuation divergence pattern (orange) was also visible on the 15 minute time frame in the same confluence zone. SELL trade was triggered when the momentum indicator broke below the 100 level with stops above the most recent high. GBPUSD pushed lower and hit the 1:4 RR target.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this article, we are going to provide an update of XAUEUR chart. In the previous article from April 23, 2020, we stated that Gold against Euro dollar (XAUEUR) should continue to move higher. XAUEUR has broken to all-time high after it broke above the previous high on Oct 2012 at 1386.5. This is very significant as it creates a bullish sequence from all-time low and suggests the long term direction is higher. The breakout happened on September 2019 when it broke above 1381.5. It has pullback and retested the breakout level on Covid-19 news selloff. After forming the low at 1300.9, it has since rallied to new high again. Below is the weekly chart per April 23, 2020.



The Covid-19 selloff allows XAUEUR to retest previous all-time high on October 2012 at 1386. The pullback ended at 1301 on March 16 and this low is likely going to hold any subsequent pullback going forward.

XAUEUR Weekly Elliott Wave Chart 6.14.2020


In the new updated weekly chart above, XAUEUR has ended wave ((1)) at 1633.08 and pullback in wave ((2)) has also ended at 1477.2.The instrument still needs to break above 1633.08 to avoid a double correction. If it breaks below 1477.2 low, then it's doing a double correction and still expected to find support while above 1301 for more upside.

XAUEUR 4 Hour Elliott Wave Chart


The 4 hour chart above shows that after ending wave II at 1300.9, the instrument has resumed the rally higher. Up from wave II, the rally unfolded as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure where wave (1) ended at 1519.59 and wave (2) ended at 1426.28. XAUEUR then resumes higher in wave (3) towards 1597.41, and dips in wave (4) ended at 1523.16. Final leg higher in wave (5) ended at 1633.08. This 5 waves move ended wave ((1)) in higher degree. Pullback in wave ((2)) hit 100% in 3 swing perfectly at 1477.2. Near term, while pullback stays above 1477.2, and more importantly above 1300.9, expect the instrument to extend higher.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of SUGARR ($SB_F). As our members know, SUGAR has been showing incomplete bullish sequences within the cycle from the April 28th low, calling for further rally. Consequently we expected the commodity to find buyers in 3 waves pull back against the 10.07 low. Pull back unfolded as Elliott Wave Zig Zag pattern ((a))((b))((c)). In the further text we are going to explain the Elliott Wave Pattern and the Forecast.

Before we take a look at the real market example, let’s explain Elliott Wave Zigzag pattern.

Elliott Wave Zigzag is the most popular corrective pattern in Elliott Wave theory . It’s made of 3 swings which have 5-3-5 inner structure. Inner swings are labeled as A,B,C where A =5 waves, B=3 waves and C=5 waves. That means A and C can be either impulsive waves or diagonals. (Leading Diagonal in case of wave A or Ending in case of wave C) . Waves A and C must meet all conditions of being 5 wave structure, such as: having RSI divergency between wave subdivisions, ideal Fibonacci extensions and ideal retracements.



Now let's take a look what Elliott Wave Zig Zag pattern looks like in real market.

SUGAR Elliott Wave Analysis 05.28.2020
SUGAR is doing correction against the 10.07 low. First leg ((a)) black unfolded as 5 waves down from the peak. Then we got 3 wave bounces in wave ((b)) and finally, we’re doing last leg down ((c)) black. Pull back looks incomplete at the moment. We expect to see another leg down to complete 5 waves in ((c)) leg. We don’t recommend selling the commodity and expect buyers to appear soon for further rally toward new highs.

You can learn more about Zig Zag Elliott Wave Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.



SUGAR Elliott Wave Analysis 05.28.2020
Eventually we got last leg down wave (v) of ((c)) as expected. Pull back X red ended as Elliott Wave Zig Zag. We are getting nice rally , however need to see break above W red -11.32 peak to confirm next leg up is in progress. The commodity is showing incomplete bullish sequences in the April 28th cycle, targeting 11.85-12.99.

Keep in mind market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences.We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room



Elliott Wave Forecast

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Wirecard AG is a german provider of financial services and payment processes. Founded in 1999 and headquartered in Aschheim (Munich), Germany, the company is since 2018 a part of the DAX30 index. After a respectable rally towards 199.4 in September 2018, the shares plunged few months later in February 2019 towards 85.6. Some still believe, this has to do something with "falsification of accounts” and “money laundering" activities of the company. Later on, different controversies were spreading around. Fundamental analysts are doing incedible efforts to explain every stock price movement connecting the ups and downs with one or another fact they may find. As a matter of fact, the stock has finished the super cycle in 2018. From there, the Wirecard stock price is doing a correction lower. Once the consolidation is ended, investors will obtain a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to enter the market.

Wirecard Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis 06.16.2020
The weekly chart below shows the Wirecard stock $WDI traded at XETRA. From the all-time lows, the stock price has demonstrated a rally in wave (I) of super cycle degree. This impulsive move up has printed a top in September 1998 at 199.4. From the peak, the wave (II) to correct the cycle higher is unfolding as an Elliott wave double three structure and it is currently in the last stages to accomplish the pattern.

Within the super cycle in wave (II), the cycle lower in 3 swings as a red wave w has found a bottom in February 2019 at 85.6. After a 3 waves pullback, from technical point of view, the rally may resume. However, in July 2019 the price trendline has been broken to the downside. So far, only 3 waves higher can be recognized. Therefore, this move higher marks a connector wave x which has ended in May 2019 at 162.3.

From May 2019 highs, the prices have broken in black wave ((W)) the February 2019 lows by printing a bottom on March 2020 at 80.6. This lower low became the 5th swing of the corrective cycle. It supports the double three correction pattern and has opened a weekly bearish sequence against 162.6 highs related to 199.4 highs. Unless truncation will happen, after a bounce in wave ((X)) another leg lower in ((Y)) should follow. Ideally, the prices should fall in red wave y to the equal legs extension towards 49.3-23.3 area.



Wirecard Daily Elliott Wave Analysis 06.16.2020 and Outlook
The daily chart below shows in more detail the subdivisions of the red wave y. After 3 swings lower in black wave ((W)) and 3 swings higher in a connector wave ((X)), a first leg lower in a blue wave (A) as an impulse has broken the March 2020 lows opening a daily bearish sequence against against 140.8 highs related to 162.6 highs. After a bounce in wave (B), the Wirecard stock may fall in another 5 waves of blue wave (C) of ((Y)) towards 49.3-23.3. Hereby, it can reach deep inside the blue box towards 30.4 to mark the equality between waves (A) and (C). As a consequence, patient investors will become an opportunity to enter the market at prices within 30.4-49.3 buying area. From there, the market should resume the rally towards 199.4 and higher or for a 3 waves bounce at least.