Elliott Wave Analysis by EWF

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE: UNH) is the largest healthcare company in the world by revenue providing health care products and insurance services.

UNH established an impulsive 5 waves advance from 3/25 low allowing the stock to rally to new all time highs last April followed by another move higher early this month. Based on the Elliott Wave Theory, the 5 waves advance is followed by a corrective 3 waves pullback before the trend can resume.

The stock ended the impulsive rally at $315.8 peak and started the correction lower showing the initial first leg of a potential 3 waves Zigzag structure which can take it lower toward $267 - $251 area where buyers are expected to show up to resume the rally within the main trend or looking for a 3 waves bounce at least.

UNH 4 Hour Chart


The health insurance giant has an impulsive bullish structure supporting the stock above $187 low and therefore the current pullback is expected to provide a buying opportunity in 3, 7 or 11 swings as long as March 20520 low is holding.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently correcting the cycle from 3.13.2020 low. The instrument has just ended cycle from 6.1.2020 high (10429) as a double three structure. Down from 6.1.2020 high, wave W ended at 9135 low. The bounce in wave X ended at 10011 high. From there, the instrument extended lower and ended wave Y at 8901.38 low. Bitcoin is now bouncing higher in wave (X) as a zig-zag Elliott Wave structure to correct that cycle in 3, 7 or 11 swings. While bounces fail below 10429 high, Bitcoin can still extend lower later to resume correction against the cycle from 3.13.2020 low in 7 or 11 swings.

Wave A of (X) has already ended at 9596 high. Internal subdivision of wave A unfolded as a a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Wave ((i)) ended at 9150 and wave ((ii)) ended at 9034. From there, wave ((iii)) ended at 9505 and wave ((iv)) pullback ended at 9374. The push higher in wave ((v)) ended at 9596. This 5 waves up ends wave A in higher degree. Currently, wave B pullback in 7 or 11 swings is in progress to correct that rally from 6.15.2020 low before Bitcoin turns higher again. As far as pivot at 8901 low stays intact, expect the dips in 3, 7, or 11 swing to find support for another leg higher at least.

Bitcoin 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Elliott Wave View in EURJPY suggests the decline from 6.1.2020 high is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 6.1.2020 high, wave 1 ended at 120.23 as an impulse. Afterwards, the bounce in wave 2 ended at 122.11 as a zigzag. Up from wave 1 low, wave ((a)) ended at 121.81 and wave ((b)) pullback ended at 120.31. The pair then extended higher in wave ((c)), which ended at 122.11. The pair then resumes lower in wave 3 as another 5 waves impulse in lesser degree.

Down from wave 2 high, wave (i) ended at 121.4, and bounce in wave (ii) ended at 121.867. Pair resumes lower in wave (iii) towards 121.15 and wave (iv) bounce ended at 121.508. Final leg wave (v) ended at 120.45 and this completed wave ((i)). Pair then bounced in wave ((ii)) and ended at 121.23. Currently, wave ((iii)) is in progress as an impulse where wave (i) of ((iii)) ended at 119.8. Near term, while bounce in wave (ii) of ((iii)) stays below 121.23, and more importantly below 122.11, expect pair to extend lower again. As far as pivot at 122.11 high stays intact, expect rally in EURJPY to fail in the sequence of 3 ,7, or 11 swing for further downside.

EURJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

The next entry in the theme of Corona Virus stocks is Blue Apron Holdings Inc ($APRN). Biotech and software are not the only sectors benefitting greatly from the COVID-19 outbreak. The food delivery services are also making large gains since the lows. Blue Apron has had an unbelievable run, let’s take a look at the history of the company:

“Blue Apron is an American ingredient-and-recipe meal kit service. It exclusively operates in the United States. The weekly boxes contain ingredients and also include suggested recipes that must be cooked by hand by the customer using the pre-ordered ingredients. As of September 2016, the company had shipped 8 million meal servings. In June 2017, the company went public with an initial public offering."

The Elliott wave count on Blue Apron is fairly clean. Let's take a look at the Near term view.

Blue Apron Elliott Wave 4H View


Medium term term view from 03/09/2020 lows of 2.09. A Sharp wave ((1)) is set at 28.84 on 03/19/2020 and wave ((2)) at 6.36 on 05/04/2020. After that, a leading diagonal Blue (1) is favoured to be set at 14.65 on 06/02/2020. Blue (2) is favoured set at 8.82 on 06/11/2020. Prices may make marginal new lows for Blue (2), but as long as prices remain above 8.82, it is favoured further upside is going to take place. Red 1 is set, with Red 2 looking for a little lower before moving higher. The equal leg extreme blue box is at 33.21 to 49.81, an area where buyers may start to take profits.

In conclusion, the structure of the advance since the March low looks very constructive for further gains while above the invalidation level of 6.36.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Microsoft Corporation ( MSFT ) is currently still extending higher from 3.23.2020 low. The stock reached all time high on 6.11.2020 and ended wave ((3)) at 198.52 high. From there, MSFT did a pullback in wave ((4)) as a Double Three Elliott Wave structure. Down from 6.11.2020 high, wave (W) ended at 186.07 low. The bounce in wave (X) ended at 191.72 high. The stock then extended lower and ended wave (Y) at 183.27 low. The stock has since extended higher from that low. From 183.27 low, wave 1 of (1) has already ended at 185.39 high. Wave 2 pullback ended at 183.50 low. Afterwards, the stock continue to push higher in wave 3. The internal subdivision of wave 3 unfolded as a a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure.

Wave ((i)) ended at 185.52 high and wave ((ii)) ended at 184.01 low. From there, wave ((iii)) ended at 195.58 high and wave ((iv)) pullback ended at 191.46 low. The push higher in wave ((v)) ended at 196.32 high. This 5 waves up ends wave 3 in higher degree. This is then followed by a pullback in wave 4, which ended at 193.24 low. Currently, wave 5 rally is in progress. Wave ((i)) has ended at 196.49 high and wave ((ii)) ended at 194.25 low. As far as pivot at 183.27 low stays intact, expect the dips in 3, 7, or 11 swing to find support and MSFT to extend higher to end 5 waves rally from 6.15.2020 low in wave (1) before doing a bigger 3 waves pullback in wave (2) later.

MSFT 30 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

$FXB Longer Term Bearish Cycles & Elliott Wave

Firstly the British Pound Sterling tracking ETF fund FXB inception date was 6/21/2006. The bearish cycle lower from the November 2007 highs in FXB is the focus of this analysis. The British Pound Sterling has been the currency of the Bank of England since 1694. Considering that date was back before there was a US Dollar to compare with and data readily available suggests price was at 2.6440 in 1972 assume the trend is down & should continue. Spot price in the GBPUSD foreign exchange was 1.0520 in 1995. Price was at 2.1161 in 2007 where it peaked and turned lower. This is where we will shift the focus to the FXB highs at 211.44 in November 2007.

Secondly the bearish cycle from the November 2007 into the January 2009 lows was clearly an Elliott Wave impulse in 5 waves. From there into the July 2014 highs appeared to be a typical double three structure with an exception compared to the spot price of foreign exchange where it made a new high above the August 2009 highs in a flat wave y of (II) whereas the FXB did not. I accept this as being similar to the structures a triangle wave “Y” of any degree will not surpass the peak or low of the previous wave “W” of same degree. Also in a similar fashion in running flats the last wave “C” will not take the high or low of the initial wave “A”.

It is irrelevant as to what the structure was. The momentum indicators suggested that the July 2014 high corrected the cycle from the November 2007 highs. The analysis continues below the monthly chart.





Thirdly the turn lower from the July 2014 highs appears to be an impulse lower into the October 2016 lows. That did not hardly reach equal legs of the initial wave (I) on the monthly chart. The bounce from the October 2016 lows is a double three into the April 2018 wave (IV) highs. From there it appears a wave I & II completed.

In conclusion : The instrument is currently correcting the cycle from the December 2019 highs. While below there the instrument can see some further weakness toward the 90 area & should not be lower than 87.61 considering that would make the wave (III) shortest.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Pound Sterling declined against a basket of currencies last week after a series of negative news. First of all, Bank of England (BOE) decided to increase quantitative easing by £100BN, putting pressure to Pound Sterling. Secondly, the deadlock in EU and UK trade negotiations over Brexit would likely persist until the year-end. Then finally, Bank of England does not rule out negative interest rate and likely to consider it in 2H20.

UK economy has been battered by the Covid-19 pandemic. A very negative economic growth and the uncertainty over Brexit can limit the strength in GBP this year. Below is the currency's performance against other world currencies last week.



EURGBP Weekly Elliott Wave Chart


$EURGBP weekly chart above shows an incomplete sequence from July 2015 low favoring more upside. The rally is proposed to be unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from July 2015 low, wave a ended at 0.9306 as 5 waves impulse structure. From there, wave b pullback ended a t0.8277 as an expanded flat structure where wave ((A)) ended at 0.862, wave ((B)) ended at 0.9324, and wave ((C)) ended at 0.8277. Pair has since resumed higher and broken above previous wave ((B)) high suggesting wave c has started. Up from wave ((B)) low, wave ((1)) ended at 0.9499 and wave ((2)) is proposed complete at 0.8671. Pair now still needs to break above wave ((1)) at 0.9499 to avoid a double correction.

EURGBP 4 Hour Elliott Wave Chart


4 hour chart of EURGBP above shows the pair also has a bullish sequence from 4.30.2020 low favoring more upside. Up from 4.30.2020 low, the rally ended wave (1) at 0.9054, and pullback in wave (2) ended at 0.8862. Pair has since broken above wave (1) at 0.9054, suggesting the next leg higher has started. Near term, dips should see support in 3, 7, or 11 swing against wave (2) low at 0.8862.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Hello fellow traders. GOLD is another instrument that we have been trading lately . In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of GOLD, published in members area of the website. As our members know, GOLD is trading within the cycle from the March 16th low . The commodity is showing higher-high sequences in Daily time frame. Consequently, we advised members to avoid selling GOLD in any proposed pull back and keep on buying the dips in the sequences of 3,7,or 11 swings whenever get chance. In further text we’re going to explain Elliott Wave Forecast and Trading strategy.

GOLD 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 06.04.2020
Current view suggests GOLD is trading within March 16th cycle that is unfolding as 5 waves structure. As of right now GOLD is doing wave (4) blue pull back against the 1454.05 low. Pull back is unfolding as Elliott Wave Double Three Pattern, when we got 5 swings down from the peak. Correction looks incomplete at the moment. The price still can make another leg down toward equal legs/ blue box area 1672.69-1627.58 . As our members know, Blue Boxes are no enemy areas , giving us 85% chance to get a bounce. We don’t recommend selling it against the main trend. Strategy is buying the dips in 3,7,11 swings against the 1454.05 low.

You can learn more about Elliott Wave Double Three Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.



GOLD 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 06.15.2020
We got 7th swing down in proposed Elliott Wave Double Three. The commodity found buyers at 1672.69-1627.58 , the Blue Box area. We got nice impulsive rally from there, when wave (4) completed at 1667.61 low. All longs from the blue box should be risk free at this stage. We expect more strength in GOLD once short term 2 red pull back completes. Break of 05/18 peak is needed in order to confirm next leg up is in progress.

Keep in mind that market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site.



Elliott Wave Forecast

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this blog, we are going to take a look at the Elliott Wave chart of NASDAQ Futures (NQ_F). The 1 hour London chart update from June 8, 2020 shows that the index has ended the cycle from May 27 low at 9742.50 high. NASDAQ then did a pullback to correct that cycle, which ended at 9572.91 low. From there, the index continued to extend higher. It has broken above the previous high, creating an incomplete sequence to the upside. Up from 9572.91 low, wave ((i)) ended at 9875.50 high. The subdivision of wave ((i)) unfolded as 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Therefore, 3 waves pullback is expected to unfold before the index resumes higher. While above 9572.94 low, the dip in 3,7 or 11 swing is expected to be supported.

NASDAQ Futures 8 June London Elliott Wave Update


The 1 hour NY chart update from June 8 shows that the pullback in wave ((ii)) reached the equal leg blue box area of wave (w)-(x). This is an area where we expect buyers to appear for 3 waves bounce at least. In the Live Trading Room, EWF members managed to buy the dip in the blue box at the 100% extension level (9755.70) as shown in the Trading Journal below.



NASDAQ Futures 8 June NY Elliott Wave Update


June 9 1-hour Asia chart update shows that buyers did appear at the blue box area. The index continued to extend higher from blue box and managed to break above the previous wave ((i)) high. This allows any long position from that blue box to be risk free as stop loss is moved to entry level.

NASDAQ Futures 9 June Asia Elliott Wave Update


The 1 hour NY chart update from June 10 shows that the index continued to resume higher and made all-time high, breaking the previous February high. Members who took the long position from the blue box then managed to close the position at 10050 target for reward to risk ratio of 4.7.

NASDAQ Futures 10 June NY Elliott Wave Update

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Gold (XAUUSD) shows a higher high sequence from 6.5.2020 low favoring further upside. Up from 6.5.2020 low, the precious metal extended higher in wave 1 as 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave Structure. The rally in wave 1 ended at 1744.77 high. From there, the metal did a pullback in wave 2, which unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Wave ((a)) ended at 1720.20 low and the bounce in wave ((b)) ended at 1743.13 high. Gold then declined lower and ended wave ((c)) of 2 at 1704.12 low.

Afterwards, the metal continues to extend higher. The precious metal broke above the previous wave 1 high, confirming the next leg higher is already in progress. From wave 2 low, wave ((i)) ended at 1732.84 high. Wave ((ii)) pullback then ended at 1712.52 low as a zigzag Elliott Wave Structure. From there, the metal resumed higher and ended wave ((iii)) at 1763.53 high. The pullback in wave ((iv)) is proposed complete at 1746.7 low, but it still needs to break above wave ((iii)) to avoid double correction. Currently, wave ((v)) is in progress. Near term, while pullback stays above 1704.12 low, expect the dips in 3,7, or 11 swings to find support and gold to extend higher.

Gold (XAUUSD) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Facebook (ticker: FB) shows a higher high sequence from June 15 low, favoring further upside. The 30 minutes chart update below shows that the stock ended wave 3 at 241.75 high. Afterwards, the stock did a pullback in wave 4. Wave ((a)) ended at 223.55 low and wave ((b)) bounce ended at 231.66 high. Facebook then extended lower in wave ((c)), which ended at 222.53 low. Up from that wave 4 low, Facebook resumed higher in wave ((i)) as 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave Structure. That rally in wave ((i)) ended at 238.46 high. From there, the stock did a pullback in wave ((ii)), which unfolded as a zig-zag Elliott Wave Structure. Wave (a) ended at 233 low and the bounce in wave (b) ended at 237.88 high. Facebook then declined lower to end wave (c) at 231.73 low.

The stock has resumed higher since. It has broken above the previous wave 3 high, confirming the next leg higher in wave 5 is already in progress. From wave ((ii)) low, the stock extended higher and ended wave i at 237.59 high. The pullback in wave ii ended at 232.15 low as a zigzag Elliott Wave Structure. From there, the stock resumed higher and ended wave iii at 240.83 high. Wave iv then unfolded as a triangle and ended at 238.75 low. The stock then pushed for another high in wave v, which ended wave (i) at 234.92 high. Wave ((ii)) pullback is currently in progress. Near term, while pullback stays above 231.73 low, expect the dips in 3,7, or 11 swings to find support and Facebook to continue to extend higher.

Facebook (FB) 30 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this technical blog, we are going to take a look at the past performance of Elliott Wave Charts SPY, which we presented to members at elliottwave-forecast. In which, the rally from 23 March 2020 low unfolded as a 5 wave impulse structure. Thus suggested that it’s a continuation pattern. And as per Elliott wave theory after a 3 waves pullback, it should do another extension higher in 5 waves impulse structure at least. Therefore, we advised members not to sell the instrument & trade the no enemy areas ( blue boxes) as per Elliott wave hedging remained the preferred path looking for 3 wave reaction higher at least. We will explain the structure & forecast below:

SPY 4 Hour Elliott Wave Chart


Above is the SPY 4 Hour Elliott Wave Chart from the 6/14/2020 Weekend update. In which, the rally from 23 March 2020 low unfolded as 5 waves impulse sequence where wave (1) ended at $263.70 high. Wave (2) pullback ended at $242.94 low, wave (3) ended at $296.77 high, wave (4) pullback ended at $276.37 low. While wave (5) ended at $323.41 high & down from there SPY made a pullback. The internals of that pullback unfolded as Elliott wave double three structure where wave (W) ended at $300.01 low. Wave (X) bounce ended at $319.12 high and wave (Y) was expected to reach $295.77- $281.24 blue box area. From there, buyers were expected to appear in the ETF looking for another 5 waves rally. Or to do a 3 wave reaction higher at least.

SPY 4 Hour Elliott Wave Chart


Here’s 4 hour Elliott Wave Chart of SPY from 6/23/2020 Pre-Market update. In which the ETF is showing reaction higher taking place from the blue box area. Allowed members to create a risk-free position shortly after taking the longs. However, a clear break above 6/08/2020 prior wave (5) peak ($323.41) still needed to confirm the next extension higher & avoid double correction lower.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Elliott Wave View in Exxon (ticker: XOM) shows that the stock has an incomplete bearish sequence against June 8 high. The decline from June 8 high unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure, where wave (A) ended at 44.75 low. Afterwards, the bounce in wave (B) ended at 49.8 as a zig-zag Elliott Wave Structure in lesser degree. The bounce reached the 100% extension in 3 swing at the blue box area. Up from wave (A) low, wave A ended at 47.76 high and wave B pullback ended at 47.14 low. The stock then extended higher in wave C, which ended at 49.80 high. Exxon then turned lower from the blue box area. The decline has broken below wave (A) low, confirming next leg lower in wave (C) is already in progress.

Down from wave (B) high, wave 1 ended at 45.40 low. The internal subdivision of wave 1 unfolded as 5 waves impulse. Wave ((i)) ended at 47.24 low and bounce in wave ((ii)) ended at 48.75 high. The stock then resumed lower in wave ((iii)) towards 45.77 low and wave ((iv)) bounce ended at 48.20 high. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 45.98 low, which completed wave 1. Pair then bounced in wave 2 and ended at 47.35 high. Currently, wave 3 is in progress, where wave ((i)) ended at 46.65 low and wave ((ii)) bounce ended at 47.22 high. Wave ((iii)) has resumed lower and near term, while below 49.80 high, expect bounce in 3,7, or 11 swing to fail and Exxon to extend lower again.

Exxon (XOM) 30 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Drive Shack ($DS) has been making steady gains since the March 2020 low. Technically speaking, it has a nice Elliott Wave chart, and is following the pattern of the general indices fairly well. Let's take a look at what they do as a company:

“Drive Shack Inc. is a leading owner and operator of golf-related leisure and entertainment businesses. Today, our portfolio consists of; Drive Shack involved in developing nationwide network of innovative golf entertainment venues. American Golf, one of the largest golf course companies in the world. And real estate related assets"

As mentioned above, the Elliott wave count on Drive Shack is fairly clean, and points to more gains ahead. Lets take a look at the 4H view:

Drive Shack Elliott Wave 4H View:


Medium term term view from 03/19/2020 lows of 0.86. Wave ((1)) was set at 1.65 on 3/26/2020 and wave ((2)) at 1.00 on 5/14/2020. After that, a wave ((3)) rally took place, which topped on 6/8/2020 at 3.43. After that, Drive Shack has been correcting that cycle from the May 14 low. Black ((4)) is favoured to be set, but one more low is possible before turning up. If a marginal new low occurs, the structure would remain the same. Which is still expecting one more high before a larger pullback may occur. Black ((5)) can see gains up to the $4.50 level before topping out in a larger degree correction.

In conclusion, Drive Shack is presently favoured to advance in the final ((5)), with a breakout over the previous $3.43 peak favoured to take place in the medium term future.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Elliott Wave View in SPX suggests the rally from 4.2.2020 low ended at 3233.13 high as 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave Structure. Up from 4.2.2020 low, wave (1) ended at 2954.86 high and wave (2) dips ended at 2766.64 low. Index then extended higher in wave (3) towards 3068.67 high and wave (4) pullback ended at 2998.61 low. Finally wave (5) higher ended at 3233.13 high. This final move completed wave ((3)) in higher degree and ended cycle from 4.2.2020 low.

Index is currently correcting that cycle within wave ((4)). The decline is unfolding as a zigzag structure where wave (A) ended at 2999.49 low. Internal of wave (A) unfolded as 5 waves where wave 1 ended at 3193.11 low, wave 2 ended at 3223.27 high, wave 3 ended at 3036.52 low, wave 4 ended at 3056.86 high, and wave 5 ended at 2999.49 low. Afterwards, bounce in wave (B) ended at 3155.53 high. Wave (B) took the form of a flat where wave A ended at 3088.42 high, wave B ended at 2965.66 low, and wave C ended at 3155.53 high.

Currently, wave (C) remains in progress. Down from wave (B) high, wave 1 ended at 3024.01 low. Near term, wave 2 bounce is in progress. While bounce stays below 3233.13 high, expect the Index to extend lower to complete wave (C). Potential target lower is 100% – 123.6% Fibonacci extension of (A)-(B) which comes at 2866-2921 area.

SPX 45 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Pan American Silver Corporation (ticker: PAAS) is a Canadian mining company with operations in Latin America. The company has mines in Mexico, Peru, Bolivia, and Argentina. It is the world's second largest primary silver producer worldwide it has the largest silver reserves with more than 550 million ounce reserve. The recent rally in Gold and Silver have helped the performance of the stock price. The company reported strong first quarter earning, but the second quarter can see a weaker result due to the closure of several of its minings from the Covid-19.

The next several years can potentially be a very supportive market for gold and silver due to the ultra loose monetary policies by central banks. In addition, the high gold-to-silver ratio at 99 to 1 (vs the average of 60 for the past 20 years) argues for the undervaluation of silver relative to gold. In the first quarter of 2020, the company produced 5.6 million ounces of silver with AISC (All-in sustaining cost) of $15.26 per ounce. It also produced 156,000 ounces of gold with $969 / ounce AISC. Net operating cash flow comes at $114 million

PAAS Monthly Elliott Wave Chart


Monthly chart of PAAS above shows the rally to March 2008 high ended grand super cycle wave ((I)) at $44.1. The pullback in grand super cycle wave ((II)) ended at $5.38. Wave ((III)) is currently in progress and eventually expected to break above wave ((I)) at 44.1. Up from wave ((II)) low, wave I ended at $21.59, and pullback in wave II ended at $10.26. Expect the stock to continue higher in the coming years.

PAAS Daily Elliott Wave Chart


Daily Elliottwave chart of PAAS above shows that the stock dropped in March to retest wave II low at $10.26. The drop coincided with the selloff in global Indices as a result of Covid-19 breakout. However, the stock has recovered very fast and now trading above the pre Covid 19 level. The wave ((2)) March low of $10.61 should now be the floor for any dips in the stock. The rally up from March low is impulsive favoring more upside.

PAAS 4 Hour Elliott Wave Chart


4 Hour chart of PAAS above shows that the stock bottomed on March 16 at $10.61. Since then, the stock has broken above wave ((1)) at $26.44, suggesting the next leg higher in wave ((3)) has started. While above wave (4) at $24.71, expect to see further upside before the stock ends wave (5) of ((3)). Afterwards, it should pullback in wave ((4)) before turning higher again.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Gold market continues to extend higher with uncertainties in pandemic and ultra-loose monetary policy by central banks. It has printed a 7 year high of $1779 and shows no sign of stopping. It has broken to new-all time high against many other major currencies, such as Euro, Pound Sterling, and Yen. Gold stocks should benefit from a rising gold market. Despite the strong performance in 2019 and 2020, they have yet to recover from the 2010 selloff.

In a bullish gold market, the large-cap companies usually rally first. Afterwards, the mid-tiers and juniors will catch up at a faster and higher clip as market advances. Good news is that unlike the 2001 - 2011 bull market in Gold, Gold miners learn their lesson and keep costs in check even with rising gold price.



Gold should continue to benefit going forward with unorthodox monetary policies, negative interest rates, and unsustainable debt levels. In this environment, mid-tiers and juniors (GDXJ) can soon start to outperform.

GDXJ Monthly Elliott Wave Chart


Gold Miners Junior (GDXJ) ended the grand super cycle correction in 2016 at $16.87 with either wave ((II)) or wave ((b)). Since then, it has consolidated for 4 years and about to breakout to the upside. Up from January 2016 low, wave I ended at $52.5, and pullback in wave II ended at $19.52 in March 2020 low. A break above wave I at 52.5 in the next few months should confirm the next leg higher has started.

GDXJ Daily Elliott Wave Chart


Daily Elliott Wave chart on GDXJ above suggests the pullback to $19.52 ended wave II on March 13, 2020 low. The pullback coincided with the selloff in global indices due to the Covid-19 breakout around the world. Since then however, the ETF has recovered very strongly and currently at the level above the pre-Covid 19 selloff. The ETF should continue to be supported in the dips against the March 2020 low for further upside.

GDXJ 4 Hour Elliott Wave Chart


GDXJ 4 Hour Chart above shows that the ETF rally from March 16 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave structure. Further upside still can't be ruled out before cycle from March 16 low ends. The 5 waves higher should end wave ((1)0, then it should pullback in wave ((2)) to correct cycle from 3/13/2020 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

On June 16 2020 I posted on social media Stocktwits/Twitter @AidanFX "GBPUSD watching for SELLS".

The chart below was also posted on social media StockTwits/Twitter @AidanFX June 16 2020 showing that a bearish market pattern (blue) formed which then triggered the pair to react with a move lower. A bearish divergence pattern (purple) also formed and was clearly visible which also signalled for the move lower. Dynamic (black) and static (pink) resistance plus the 0.618% Fib. level (orange) also added to the reaction lower from the blue box confluence zone. Momentum indicator crossed below the 100 level confirming the SELL and for momentum to continue lower. I called for traders to SELL GBPUSD and only a move above the confluence zone would invalidate the SELL trade setup. Stop loss was set above the confluence zone targeting the green 1:1 RR and 1:2 RR targets.

GBPUSD 4 Hour Chart 6.16.2020



GBPUSD continues lower the rest of the trading week and on June 21 2020, the start of the new trading week, price reaches the 1:2 RR target at 1.2335 from 1.2570 entry for +235 pips. If you followed me on Twitter/Stocktwits @AidanFX you too could have caught the GBPUSD move lower.

GBPUSD 4 Hour Chart 6.21.2020



Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade. Hope you enjoyed this article and follow me on Twitter for updates and questions> @AidanFX or chat me on Skype > EWF Aidan Chan

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this blog, we are going to take a look at the Elliott Wave chart of Natural Gas (NG_F). In the previous article from May 13, 2020, we showed how Natural Gas reached the blue box area and turned lower from there. The 4 hour chart update below from May 14 shows that the commodity has ended the decline from the blue box at 1.595 low as 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave Structure. From there, 3 waves bounce is expected to take place before the decline lower can continue. While below 2.163 high, the bounce in 3,7, or 11 swings is expected to fail for more downside later.

Natural Gas (NG_F) 14 May 4 Hour Elliott Wave Update


The 4 hour chart update from June 28 shows that 3 waves bounce in wave (2) has already ended at 1.899 high. The bounce unfolded as a zig-zag Elliott Wave Structure. Down from 1.899 high, Natural Gas ended wave 1 at 1.742 low. Wave 2 bounce unfolded as a flat and ended at 1.833 high. Afterwards, the commodity resumed lower in wave 3, which is still in progress. The decline has already broken below previous wave (1) low. The commodity is now showing a lower low sequence. While below 1.899 high, expect the bounce in 3,7, or 11 swings to fail for more downside in the near term.

Natural Gas (NG_F) 28 June 4 Hour Elliott Wave Update

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this technical blog we’re going to take a look at the Elliott Wave charts charts of GBPJPY published in members area of the website. Recently the pair corrected the cycle from the 139.7 peak , when recovery unfolded as Irregular Elliott Wave Flat structure. These kinds of movements are Traps for traders as the market gives 5 waves structure in the direction against the trend. We at Elliott Wave Forecast can spot such patterns early by looking at the structure of internal subdivision, looking at price distribution and using market correlation strategies.

In further text we’re going to explain the forecast and Elliott Wave Pattern. Before we take a look at the real market example of Expanded Flat, let’s explain the pattern in a few words.

Elliott Wave Expanded Flat Theory
Elliott Wave Expanded Flat is a 3 wave corrective pattern which could often be seen in the market nowadays. Inner subdivision is labeled as A,B,C , with inner 3,3,5 structure. Waves A and B have forms of corrective structures like zigzag, flat, double three or triple three. Third wave C is always 5 waves structure, either motive impulse or ending diagonal pattern. It’s important to notice that in Expanded Flat Pattern wave B completes below the start point of wave A, and wave C ends above the ending point of wave A which makes it Expanded. Wave C of expanded completes usually close to 1.236 Fibonacci extension of A related to B, but sometimes it could go up to 1.618 fibs ext.

At the graphic below, we can see what Expanded Flat structure looks like.



GBPJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 6.15.2020.
Current view suggests GBPJPY is correcting the cycle from the 139.7 peak. Short term recovery 2 can be unfolding as irregular Flat Pattern. We expect to see 5 waves up from the recent low which would be ((c)) leg of proposed 2 red Flat recovery. The price can see approximately 135.74-136.72 area , equal legs ((a))-((b)), before sellers appear again for proposed extension down.



GBPJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 6.16.2020.
At this stage we can see that recovery made form of Elliott Wave Flat Structure as we expected. Waves ((a)) and ((b)) black have corrective- 3 waves structures. While wave (C) blue unfolded as 5 waves rally. Wave ((b)) ended below starting point of wave ((a)) and wave ((c)) ended above ending point of wave ((a)). The pair has already reached ((a))-((b)) equal legs at 135.74-136.72 area and giving us reaction from there. We expect further separation from the current 136.35 peak and ideally break of 06/15 low which will confirm next leg down is in progress.

You can learn more about Elliott Wave FLAT Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page


GBPJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 6.19.2020.
Eventually the pair broke 06/15 low, confirming next leg down is in progress. The pair is now bearish against the 136.35 peak and should ideally find sellers in 3,7,11 swings against that high.

Keep in mind market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.



Elliott Wave Forecast