Elliott Wave Analysis by EWF

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

PetroChina Company Limited is a Chinese oil and gas company and is the listed arm of the state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). Behind only Saudi Aramco and before another Chinese company Sinopec, it is the second largest worldwide in terms of revenue. Founded 1999, it is headquartered in Dongcheng District, Beijing, China. International investors can trade it under the ticker $0857 at HKEX. The company is a part of Hang Seng index. Also, one can trade PetroChina under the ticker $PCCYF in US in form of ADRs. Today, PetroChina is employing more than 506’000 people serving worldwide with primary markets in China.

Oil and Gas prices have found their bottom in April and June 2020, respectively. Then, an important rally towards March and August 2022 highs, respectively, has taken place. Now, from the peaks, a consolidation is taking place and should find another bottom soon. Indeed, oil prices are trading within daily buying area. Natural gas is lagging and can reach the respective buying area as well. On the other hand, major indices may have found a bottom from November 2021/January 2022 highs already. Last not least, Hang Seng index is reacting already higher out of weekly bluebox ending a 5 year correction from January 2018 highs. It is obvious, that energy stocks should be supported owing to rising prices of oil and gas and also due to the next bullish cycle in indices. Will this coincidence allow PetroChina to find a bottom and accelerate higher?

PetroChina Monthly Elliott Wave Analysis 12.11.2022​

The monthly chart below shows thePetroChina shares $0857 traded at HKEX. From the IPO in 2002, the stock price has developed an initial cycle higher in blue wave (I) of super cycle degree towards 20.25 all-time highs in November 2007. After an impulsive structure higher, a correction lower in blue wave (II) has unfolded as an Elliott wave double three pattern.

Firstly, red wave w of blue wave (II) has printed a low at 4.05 in October 2008. Then, a triangle structure in red wave x has ended at 11.04 highs in April 2015. Later on, the price has broken 4.05 lows opening up a bearish sequence. As a consequence, red wave y should find support lower from 100% extension. However, that extension is negative which is impossible. Therefore, 61.8% extension being 2.52-0.00 area can serve as a next supporting range where a new cycle higher should start. Indeed, the red wave y of blue wave (II) has finished in October 2020 at 2.16.

While above October 2020 lows, a new bullish cycle in blue wave (III) might have started and is now in the initial stages. Long-term, the target for blue wave (III) will be 22.41-34.92 area and even higher.

PetroChina Daily Elliott Wave Analysis 12.11.2022​

The daily chart below shows in more detail the initial nest consisting of black waves ((1))-((2)) in more detail. From the October 2020 lows, black wave ((1)) of red wave I has ended in March 2022. It has the pattern of a leading diagonal being a 3-3-3-3-3 structure. From the 4.49 highs, correction in wave ((2)) should provide an opportunity for an acceleration higher in black wave ((3)). It unfolds as a zigzag pattern. Firstly, from the March 2022, an impulse lower of blue (A) have set a low at 3.74 of the same month. Secondly, a bounce in blue wave (B) has printed a connector high at 4.43. Thirdly, the price reached lower into the blue box extension area 3.40-2.76. From there, a new cycle in black wave ((3)) should start. Technically, one more swing can take place to complete the structure of the blue wave (C). Then, expect acceration in black wave ((3)) towards 4.49 and beyond to take place.

Investors and traders can be using 3.40-2.76 bluebox area as a buying opportunity in $0857 targeting 22.41-34.92 area and even higher in the long run.



Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/petrochina-acceleration-higher/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Silver (XAGUSD) has ended correction to the cycle from 2020 low and turning higher. This would suggest that silver miners most likely have formed the bottom as well. Below is the chart of Pan American Silver (ticker: PAAS), one of the leading precious metal miners. The company is engaged in the production and sale of silver, gold, zinc, lead and copper.

PAAS Monthly Elliott Wave Chart​

PAAS rally to 44.1 on March 2008 ended wave ((I)). Wave ((II)) pullback ended at 5.32 with internal subdivision as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((I)), wave (A) ended at 8.93, rally in wave (B) ended at 43.06, and wave (C) lower ended at 5.32. This completed wave ((II) in higher degree. Up from there, wave (I) ended at 40.11 and wave (II)) is proposed complete at 13.40. As far as pivot at 5.32 low stays intact, expect the stock to continue higher.

PAAS Daily Elliott Wave Chart​

Daily Elliott Wave chart above shows wave (II) ended at 13.39 with internal subdivision as a double three. Down from wave (I) at 40.11, wave w ended at 20.73, and rally in wave x ended at 30.56. Final leg lower wave y ended at 13.39. This completed wave (II) in higher degree. Wave (III) higher is now in progress but it still needs to break above wave (I) at 40.11 to rule out a double correction. Near term, as far as pivot at 13.39 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for further upside.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/pan-america-silver-paas-bottom-can-place/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

HCA Healthcare, Inc., (HCA) provides health care services company in the United States. The company operates general & acute care hospitals that offers medical & surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic & emergency services & outpatient services. It is based in Nashville, Tennessee, comes under Healthcare (XLV) sector & trades as “HCA” ticker at NYSE.

HCA ended the biggest correction at $58.38 low in March-2020 since 2011 low. After that, it made a new ATH at $279.02 as impulse sequence wave I. It proposed ended II correction at $164.47 low. While above there, it expect to resume higher in III, which confirms above daily high to avoid any double correction in II.

HCA - Elliott Wave Latest Weekly chart :​

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It placed ((1)) at $118.70 high on 6/08/2020 low & ((2)) at $91.21 low on 6/25/2020. ((2)) was corrected slightly above 0.5 Fibonacci retracement against ((1)). Thereafter, it started third wave extension, which ended at $269.75 high on 1/05/2022. Below there, it favored ended ((4)) at $220.50 low as 0.236 Fibonacci retracement of ((3)). Finally, it ended ((5)) at $279.02 high on 4/21/2022 as wave I in the sequence started from March-2020 low.

HCA - Elliott Wave Latest Daily chart :​

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Below $279.02 high, it proposed ended wave II at $164.47 low as zigzag correction. While above there, it either continue higher in III, which confirms when breaks above daily high of I. Alternatively, it can do larger double correction in II, which confirms below $164.47 low. Short term, it placed ((1)) at $219.68 high & ((2)) at $178.32 low. Above there, it expect further upside in ((3)). Currently, it expect a small pullback in wave 4 before final push higher in 5 of (1), followed by a correction in (2). Ideally, it should hold above ((2)) low in wave (2) correction to resume upside later in (3) of ((3)).

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/hca-ready-next-rally/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of OIL . As our members know, break of 09/27 low made incomplete bearish sequences in the cycle from the June peak. Consequently we were calling for further extension down within the cycle. Recently the commodity has given us nice 3 waves bounce which found sellers right at equal legs area as we expected. In the further text we are going to explain the Elliott Wave Forecast

OIL H1 Elliott Wave Analysis 12.01.2022​

OIL is correcting the short term cycle from the 93.74 peak. Recovery looks incomplete at the moment. The price is showing higher high sequences from the low, looking for extension up toward 83.18-86.98 area. At that zone buyers should be ideally taking profits and sellers can appear again. Consequently , we expect to see reaction from the marked area. Once OIL reaches mentioned area it should ideally make either decline toward new lows or larger 3 waves pull back at least.

Reminder: You can learn about Elliott Wave Rules and Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.

OIL H1 Elliott Wave Analysis 12.05.2022​

Sellers appeared right at the marked extreme zone : 83.18-86.98 area and we got good reaction. Current view suggests (4) blue completed at 83.39 high. While below that high, we expect further decline to resume toward 71.28-67.57 area ideally.

Keep in mind not every chart is trading recommendation. You can check most recent charts and new trading setups in the membership area of the site. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.



Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/commodities/oil-cl_f-elliott-wave/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is an American multinational chain of coffeehouses and roastery reserves. It is the world’s largest coffeehouse chain. As of November 2021, the company had 33,833 stores in 80 countries, 15,444 of which were located in the United States. Out of Starbucks’ U.S.-based stores, over 8,900 are company-operated, while the remainder are licensed.

Starbucks ($SBUX) Elliott Wave Analysis - July Daily Chart​

Starbucks completed a cycle from March 2022 low in July 2021 peak and we labeled as wave I. Then we could see a double correction ((W)), ((X)) and ((Y)). A clear 7 swing correction to complete wave II in May 2022. From here we were calling a beginning of a nest to continue with the rally. A nest is a group of waves 1 and 2 until wave 3 starts. (If you want to learn more about double correction or Elliott Wave Theory, follow these links: Elliott Wave Education and Elliott Wave Theory). The Rally continue higher than expected; therefore, we have adjusted the count labelling wave (1) higher as we show in the next chart.

Starbucks ($SBUX) Elliott Wave Analysis - December Daily Chart​

Starbucks bounced from the May low ended an impulse Wave 1 at 81.30 and pullback as wave 2 finished at 70.29. Then rally continued ended wave 3 at 89.94 and retracement as wave 4 completed at 81.72. Last push to complete wave (1) impulse ended at 93.63. After this, a flat correction appeared making 3 swings pullback where wave B was a triangle. Wave (2) ended at 82.50. The rally continued and we expect that wave 1 in red finishes soon. The best structure to complete an impulse as wave 1 is making one more high above 105.51 with divergence in the RSI. Then a correction in 3, 7 or 11 swings is expected to complete wave 2 and continue with the uptrend. The count is valid as we stay above 82.50.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/starbucks-sbux/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this technical blog, we will look at the past performance of the 1-hour Elliott Wave Charts of NZDJPY. In which, the rally from 11 November 2022 low is unfolding as an ending diagonal structure and showed a higher high sequence. Therefore, we knew that the structure in NZDJPY is incomplete to the upside & should see more upside. So, we advised members not to sell it but to buy the dip in 3, 7, or 11 swings at the extreme areas. We will explain the structure & forecast below:

NZDJPY 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart​

Here’s the Elliott wave Chart from the 12/14/2022 London update. In which, the rally to 88.16 high ended the cycle from the 29 November 2022 low as a diagonal wave 3 & made a pullback in wave 4. The internals of that pullback unfolded as Elliott wave double three structure where wave ((w)) ended at 87.28 low. Then a bounce to 87.91 high ended wave ((x)) & started the next leg lower in wave ((y)) towards 87.02- 86.49 equal legs area. From there, buyers were expected to appear looking for new highs ideally or for a 3 wave bounce minimum.

NZDJPY Latest 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart​

Above is the latest Elliott wave Chart from the 12/15/2022 London update. In which the pair is showing a reaction higher taking place from the equal legs area. Right after ending the double correction. Allowed members to create a risk-free position with the minimum reaction higher towards 50%- 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the peak at 87.46- 87.63 area. However, a break above 88.16 high is still needed to confirm the next extension higher & avoid a double correction lower.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/forex/nzdjpy-found-support-equal-legs-area-reacted-higher/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

An interesting pair to look at to identify the path of the USDX after 9.28.22 peak is the USDCHF. We all know and seen the USDX rallying within wave ((3)) during the last 1 and a half years. The cycle now is getting mature and expected pullback was inevitable.
At Elliott Wave Forecast, as an analyst and a professional trader you need to look at different clues in the market that may help you determine a cycle or a sequence. This will allow you to figure out a possible path so you can be able to execute reasonably your trading plan ahead. The market always reacts within the transactions being made between buyers and sellers. For a market to exist you need to have both sides.

If you ever seen an exchange you know that you can see how much money is available at a specific price. Either for buying or selling an asset. This however is not available within the retail trading industry within the Forex markets. Our system is able to combine Elliott Wave theory with the addition of market correlation and distribution. And looking at the sequences among other things to determine the most probable and accurate path. Let's have a look at the USDX 11.26.22 4 hour weekend update.

USDX 11.26.22 4 Hour weekend update​

We can see that wave 2 red in the USDX was at 10.21.22 and from there made 5 waves lower into wave 3 before bouncing in wave 4 and then lower in wave 5 takes place. Now let's have a look at what the USDCHF has done.

USDCHF 11.27.22 4 Hour weekend update​

The USDCHF as we can see ended its cycle at 10.21.22 the same date that the USDX ended wave 2 red. From that point on the 2 instruments are correlated within the same cycle and path. Before ending the cycle and soon to start the bounce. Now let's have a look at the latest charts from both instruments.

USDX 12.14.22 1 hour Asian update​

USDCHF 12.15.22 1 hour New York Update​

As we can see both instruments shared a similar path. This is because within a cycle we usually have some instruments that we can relate to. It gives us clues as to how and when a cycle might be ending. Most times we find instruments that we can relate that have identical swing counts and structure. We use multiple indicators to be able to accurately forecast the market. Alongside our distribution system, sequence and correlations amongst others.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/forex/usdchf-leading-the-path-in-usdx/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Hello Everyone! In this technical blog, we are going to take a look at the Elliott Wave path in Occidental Petroleum Corporation ($OXY).

Occidental Petroleum Corporation is an American company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration in the United States, and the Middle East as well as petrochemical manufacturing in the United States, Canada, and Chile. It is organized in Delaware and headquartered in Houston. The company ranked 183rd on the 2021 Fortune 500 based on its 2020 revenues and 670th on the 2021 Forbes Global 2000.

$OXY Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis Dec 18th 2022:​

The Weekly Chart above shows the cycle from October 2020 low unfold in 5 waves impulse structure that ended in August 2022 at blue (I) at $77.13. The stock then started a pullback to correct the cycle against October 2020 low in a Zig Zag structure (abc). The correction so far has completed the first and second leg. As long as price remains below red b at $76.10, it is expected that the next leg lower is taking place. Any bounces should find sellers until we reach the Blue Box area at $56.48 - 44.30. We like to buy dips in 3, 7 or 11 swings into blue boxes for a continuation to the upside as long as the October 2020 lows at $8.52 remains intact.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/st...orporation-oxy-provides-blue-box-opportunity/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) is an American multinational investment bank and financial services company headquartered in New York City. It offers services in investment management, securities, asset management, prime brokerage, and securities underwriting. The company invests in and arranges financing for startups, and in many cases gets additional business when the companies launch initial public offerings. Notable initial public offerings for which Goldman Sachs was the lead bookrunner include those of Twitter, Bumble, Robinhood Markets, Coupang, etc.

GOLDMAN SACHS (GS) JUNE DAILY CHART​

In June, we were looking to finish the cycle correction that started in March 2020. The March cycle built momentum which we call wave ((1)) and ended at 426.39. The pullback took the form of a double correction. At the end, GS needed one more low towards the blue box area in 276.98 - 253.30 to complete the wave ((2)). From here, we expected to continue the bullish trend. (If you want to learn more about double correction or Elliott Wave Theory, follow these links: Elliott Wave Education and Elliott Wave Theory). The Rally continue higher than expected; therefore, we have adjusted the count labelling wave (1) higher as we show in the next chart.



The saw a new low, but unfortunately it was very slight and it did not reach the blue box for a few cents. Wave ((2)) ended at 277.90. The rally continues and we can see 5 waves to the upside that ended at 358.52. We call this rally wave (1). We then got a very deep zig zag pullback that was close to breaking through the invalidation level. Wave (2) ended at 287.61 seeing a strong rebound again. This bounce formed another impulsive structure that ended at 389.51 and we call it wave 1. We expect the structure from the bottom of wave ((2)) to be a nest, which means that the current correction should remain above wave (2) to be valid. We expect a double correction as wave 2 to finish in the blue box at 336.20 - 323.10 and GS to continue higher.

GOLDMAN SACHS (GS) DECEMBER ALT DAILY CHART​

To confirm the count, the bounce from the blue box should break 390.43. If we don't break the high, the 3 waves that started from the low of 277.90 could be corrective and not a nest. This would turn the structure from the November 2021 peak into a double correction and break wave (W) low. In the chart above, we can see how the GS structure could turn out if we fail to break the 390.43 high.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/goldman-sachs-gs-rally-reaching-blue-box/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of NASDAQ . As our members know, the Index shows bearish sequences in the cycle from the November 22. 2021 peak. Incomplete structure calls for a further decline. Recently Nasdaq has made 3 waves bounce , when it has reached our selling zone. We recommended members to avoid buying and keep selling rallies in 3,7,11 swings due to bearish sequences. In the further text we are going to explain the Elliott Wave Forecast and the trading strategy.

Nasdaq H4 Elliott Wave Analysis 11.10.2022​

Nasdaq is giving us bounce that is correcting the cycle from the 13743.04 peak. At this moment we believe recovery is still in progress as the price shows incomplete sequences. Consequently we are calling for more short term strength toward 11870.18-12632.68 area to complete (B) blue . We recommended members to avoid buying the Index in proposed push up. Strategy is waiting for Blue Box to be reached before selling it. As the main trend is bearish we expect sellers to appear at the blue box for 3 waves pull back at least. Once pull back reaches 50 Fibs against the B red low, we will make short position risk free ( put SL at BE) and take partial profits. Invalidation for the trade would be break above 1.618 fibs extension: 12632.68

As our members know Blue Boxes are no enemy areas , giving us 85% chance to get a reaction.

Reminder:

Our charts are easy to trade and understand. When you see combination of right side stamp and blue box on the chart, the instrument can be traded. Quick explanation :

-Red bearish stamp+ blue box = Potential Selling Setup
-Green bullish stamp+ blue box = Potential Buying Setup
-Charts with Black stamps are not tradable.

You can learn about Elliott Wave Rules and Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.

Nasdaq H4 Elliott Wave Analysis 11.24.2022​

Nasdaq reached equal legs ( blue box ) area at 11870.18-12632.68 and made turn lower from there. We already got a reaction from the blue box. However we still believe another marginal push up within the blue box would be ideal to complete recovery.

Nasdaq H4 Elliott Wave Analysis 11.24.2022​

Eventually the index has made last push up and found sellers as expected. We have got decent reaction from the blue box that has reached and exceeded 50 fibs against the connector. As a result , members who took short trades made positions risk free ( Put SL at BE) and took partial profits. At this stage we call wave (2) blue connector completed at 12332 .6high. We would like to see break of 10/13 low to confirm next leg down is in progress.

Keep in mind market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences.We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.



Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/trading/nasdaq-nq_f-elliott-wave-blue-box/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Tapestry, Inc. (formerly: Coach, Inc.) is a multinational luxury fashion holding company based in New York City, USA. The parent company owns three brands: Coach New York, Kate Spade New York and Stuart Weitzman. The stock of the company being a component of the S&P500 index can be traded under ticker $TPR at NYSE. Currently, we see cotton turning higher. Also, other soft commodities are moving up. Therefore, Tapestry being a heavy weight in the textile market should be a great opportunity for investors to diversify their portfolio by indirect investement in the rising prices of particularly soft commodities.

In the previous article from March 2022, we were providing next buying opportunity from 33.91-25.77 area. Now, reaction in 3 swings has happened already. Furthermore, we expect extension higher within a new cycle, Here, we provide an update discussing the targets.

Tapestry Monthly Elliott Wave Analysis 12.18.2022​

The Monthly chart below shows the Tapestry shares $TPR traded at NYSE. First, the stock price has developed a leading diagonal higher in blue wave (I) of super cycle degree. It has printed the all- time highs in March of 2012 at 79.70. From the highs, a correction lower in blue wave (II) has unfolded as an Elliott wave double three pattern. It has printed an important bottom in April of 2020 at 10.18. As a matter of fact, the stock price has lost 87% of its value in only 8 years.

From the lows of April 2020, a nest comprising red waves I and II might be in place. While above 26.39 lows, the red wave III is in progress and can reach towards 65.86-90.30 area and even higher.

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Tapestry Daily Elliott Wave Analysis 12.18.2022​

The daily chart below shows the consolidation lower in red wave II correcting the cycle in red wave I from April 2020. Also, we see first stages of a new cycle in red wave III. From the May 2021 highs, correction in wave II was developing as a double three correction. Based on the connector from November 2021 at 47.05, we have explained previously 33.91-25.77 area. The stock price has reached it and reacted already in 3 swings. Traders should have taken partial profit already and be risk-free. Now, main view is more extension higher.

Investors and traders should stay long from 33.91-25.77 area targeting 65.86-90.30 area in the medium term and 89.90-139.21 area and even higher in the long run.



Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/tapestry-reacting-higher/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this technical blog, we will look at the past performance of the 1-hour Elliott Wave Charts of USDCAD. In, the rally from 15 November 2022 low unfolded in a corrective sequence but provided an extreme trading opportunity. In this case, the pullback managed to reach the equal legs area & provided a buying opportunity. So, we advised members not to sell it but to buy the equal legs area for a minimum reaction higher to happen. We will explain the structure & forecast below:

USDCAD 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 12.13.2022​

Here’s the Elliott wave Chart from the 12/13/2022 Asia update. In which, the rally to $1.3700 high ended the wave (W) & made a pullback in wave (X). The internals of that pullback unfolded as Elliott wave flat structure where wave A ended at $1.3558 low. Then a bounce to $1.3691 high ended wave B & started the next leg lower in wave C towards $1.3549- $1.3461 equal legs area. From there, buyers were expected to appear looking for new highs ideally or for a 3-wave bounce minimum.

USDCAD 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 12.17.2022​

Above is the Elliott wave Chart from the 12/17/2022 Weekend update. In which the pair is showing a reaction higher taking place from the equal legs area. Right after ending the zigzag correction. Allowed members to create a risk-free position shortly after taking a long position. Since then the pair has managed to make a new high above $1.3700 high confirming the next extension higher.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/forex/usdcad-producing-strong-reaction-higher-equal-legs-area/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Blackstone Inc., (BX) is an alternative asses management firm specializing in real estate, private equity, hedge fund solutions, credit, secondary funds of funds, public debt & multi-asset class strategies. The firm typically invests in early stage companies. It is based in New York, comes under Financial services sector & trades as “BX” ticker at NYSE.

BX ended impulse sequence I red at $149.78 high on 11/19/2021. Below there it favors correction lower in II wave, which expect to end between $78.63 - $48.87 area before turning higher.

BX - Elliott Wave Latest Weekly View :​

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It placed ((1)) at $60.20 high on 6/05/2020 of the impulse sequence started from 3/18/2020 low. It favored ended ((2)) at $49.26 low on 9/24/2020 low as 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of previous cycle. Above there, it started third wave extension of third wave extension & placed ((3)) at $136.88 high on 9/17/2021. It ended ((4)) at $108.81 low on 10/04/2021 as slightly above 0.382 retracement. Finally, it ended ((5)) at $149.78 high on 11/19/2021 as wave I. While below there, it favors correcting lower in II in zigzag correction.

BX - Elliott Wave Latest Daily View:​

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Below $149.78 high, it placed ((A)) at $101.65 low and ((B)) at $126.80 high as triangle on 4/21/2022. While below there, it favors lower in ((C)) leg towards $78.63 - $48.87 area to finish II correction before upside resumes in either new sequence up or at least 3 swing reaction higher. Currently, it favors lower in (3) of ((C)) & expect weakness to continue before a bounce in (4) followed by final push lower to finish the sequence in II.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of ETHUSD . As our members know ETH is showing incomplete sequences in the cycle from the 08/15 peak. The cryptocurrency is bearish against the 1681.4 pivot. Recently ETH has made 3 waves bounce , when it has reached our blue box- selling zone. We recommended members to avoid buying and keep selling rallies in 3,7,11 swings due to bearish sequences. In the further text we are going to explain the Elliott Wave Forecast and the trading strategy.

ETHUSD H4 Elliott Wave Analysis 12.12.2022​

ETHUSD made 5 waves down from the 1681.4 high. Currently the price is giving us 2 red recovery that is correcting the cycle from the mentioned 1681.4 peak. At this moment we believe recovery is still in progress toward marked blue box area. We recommended members to avoid buying the Index in proposed push up.

Let's see what the price structure looks like in h1 time frame.

ETHUSD H1 Elliott Wave Analysis 12.12.2022​

Correction looks incomplete at the moment. We expect to see more more upside toward 1350.7-1516.75 area. Strategy is waiting for Blue Box to be reached before selling it. Invalidation for the trade would be break above 1.618 fibs extension: 1516.22. As the main trend is bearish we expect sellers to appear at the blue box for 3 waves pull back at least. Once pull back reaches 50 Fibs against the ((b)) black low, we will make short position risk free ( put SL at BE) and take partial profits.

As our members know Blue Boxes are no enemy areas , giving us 85% chance to get a reaction.

You can learn about Elliott Wave Rules and Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.

ETHUSD H1 Elliott Wave Analysis 12.19.2022​

Eventually , ETHUSD made extension higher toward our selling zone : 1350.7-1516.75 area. The pair found sellers right at the blue box and made reaction from there that has reached 50 fibs against the ((b)) black low. As a result, members who took short trades mad positions risk free . ( Put SL at BE) and took partial profits. At this stage we see wave 2 red completed at 1351.87 high. Decline from the peak looks to be unfolding as 5 waves. We expect another marginal low before bounce in ((ii)) takes place. The price should ideally make break of previous low : 3 red 11/09 to confirm wave 3 red is in progress.

Keep in mind market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences.We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.



Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/trading/ethusd-selling-rallies-blue-box/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Hello Everyone! In this technical blog, we are going to take a look at the Elliott Wave path in Consumer Discretionary ETF ($XLY). We keep telling members that $XLY is showing an incomplete bearish sequence in the higher timeframes and any rallies can be sold in 3 or 7 swings at blue boxes for more downside.

$XLY 1H Elliott Wave Analysis Dec 21 2022:​

The ETF has made 5 waves from 12.13.2022 peak at $146.48 and ended the cycle. We advised members to sell the bounce in 3 or 7 swings at black ((ii)) targeting more downside.

$XLY 1H Elliott Wave Analysis Dec 23 2022:​

The ETF's bounce failed in 3 waves and made a new low below ((i)) as expected. Any sellers are now risk free and should continue to hold for more downside. Right now, we keep pushing it lower in 3 or 7 swings at blue box areas against black ((ii)) connector. As our members know, Blue Boxes are no enemy areas , giving us 85% chance to get a reaction.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/xly-forecasting-decline-selling-rallies-blue-box/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Visa Inc. (V) is an American multinational financial services corporation headquartered in San Francisco, California. It facilitates electronic funds transfers throughout the world, most commonly through Visa-branded credit cards, debit cards and prepaid cards. Visa is one of the world's most valuable companies.

VISA (V) Daily Chart From September 2022​

Visa (V) ended an important market cycle in July 2021 that started in March 2020. The rally reached 252.67 which we labeled as wave I, and from there a corrective movement started. The structure broke an important support at 186.63. This breaking told us that we should see more bearish movement until we find a new support.

Using the Elliott Wave Principle, we see that a complex 7-3-7 structure has been formed in V in daily timeframe. This means that the first cycle developed a double correction and we label it as wave ((W)). Then we have the connector ((X)) which corrected the drop from the peak. Lastly, we are building a new double correction to complete wave ((Y)) that it should bounce from the blue box proposed. (If you want to learn more about double correction or Elliott Wave Theory, follow these links: Elliott Wave Education and Elliott Wave Theory).

VISA (V) Daily Chart From December 2022​

VISA kept dropping and ended wave ((Y)) of II at 174.60 hitting the blue box in October. From there, the stock made an important rally building a leading diagonal. Wave 1 ended at 211.49. Pullback as wave 2 completed at 193.19. Then bounce again finishing wave 3 at 218.75 and wave 4 ended at 205.02 entered in the territory of wave 1. Last push higher to complete a leading diagonal ended wave 5 of ((1)) at 220.04.

Now, we are expecting 3 or 7 waves lower to correct the cycle from 174.60 low as wave ((2)) and then continue the rally again. We are looking for 3 waves lower as the chart. Wave A already ended at 202.04. We should see a bounce as wave B to fail below 220.04 high to look for one more low to complete wave C and wave ((2)) to rally again.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/visa-completed-double-correction-rally/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Advanced Dollar Dynamic 2.2 - Impact in the Yen.​

A very interesting dynamic that we got in the last 2 months in the market was the advanced dollar dynamic 2.2. During this dynamic, the move in the USDJPY is of greater magnitude than the move in the dollar pairs.
Therefore, then Yen pairs trade sideways to higher (if USDJPY trades higher) or sideways to lower (if USDJPY trades lower).

Since 10.21.22 when we had the secondary peak in the USDX and peak in USDJPY the market has been trading within that dynamic. Let's first have a look at the USDX since 10.21.22. We can see that it has dropped since that peak to the lowest point 9.21%.

USDX 10.21.22 Dynamic 2.2​

Now let's have a look at how the main USDX pair EURUSD has moved since 10.21.22. We will see that the move was 10.62% which is comparable to the one of USDX itself.

EURUSD 10.21.22 Dynamic 2.2​

Now let's see how the USDJPY move was greater than the dollar pairs and the dollar itself. We can see a 14.04% move in this case.

USDJPY 10.21.22 Dynamic 2.2​

And lastly let's see how a YEN pair behaved during this dynamic. Let's see AUDJPY which has been sideways to lower since 10.21.22.

AUDJPY 10.21.22 Dynamic 2.2​

Very technical market overall and this is one of the things we teach here at Elliott Wave Forecast. We look at the market in many ways and identifying the dynamics will help us pick the best instruments to trade. We do not like to trade choppy and sideways markets.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/forex/usdjpy-how-a-dollar-dynamic-2-2-can-impact-the-yen/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

America Movil, S.A.B. de C.V. (AMX) provides telecommunication services in Latic America & internationally. The company offers wireless & fixed voice services, including local, domestic & international long-distance services & network interconnection services along with data services. It is based in Mexico, comes under Communication services sector & trades as “AMX” ticket at NYSE.

As showing in previous article, AMX ended wave I as impulse at $22.65 high & proposed ended II correction at $16.13 low on 10/13/2022 low between blue box area. Buyers from the blue box area is already having risk free position. It still needs to break above wave I high to confirm the next leg higher. Short term, it favors correcting lower either in ((2)) or can be double correction in II, if breaks below $16.13 low.

AMX - Elliott Wave Latest Weekly View:​

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It favored ended ((1)) at $14.77 high on 6/08/2020 & ((2)) at $11.59 low on 9/24/2020. ((2)) was 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of ((1)). While above there, it extended higher third wave extension. It ended ((3)) at $22.60 high on 4/18/2022. While below there, it placed ((4)) at $18.19 low as 0.382 Fibonacci retracement. Finally, it ended ((5)) at $22.65 high on 5/27/2022 as wave I as minor high above ((3)). Below there, it proposed ended II at $16.13 low in blue box area as zigzag.

AMX - Elliott Wave Latest Daily View:​

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Above II low of $16.13, it placed ((1)) at $20.75 high & favors correcting lower in ((2)). It favored ended 1 of (A) at $17.75 low, while above there it expects bounce in 2 of (A). Later it expects weakness in (A) leg as the part of ((2)). Ideally, ((2)) should hold above $16.13 low to resume higher in ((3)) of III red, which confirms above ((1)) high. Alternatively, if it breaks below $16.13 low, it can do larger double correction in II, which extend further downside between $14.22 - $10.19 area before turning higher.

AMX - Alternate Elliott Wave Weekly View:​

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Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/amx-should-ready-next-rally/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Ammo Incorporated is an U.S. American defense company producing high-quality ammunition. The company owns STREAK (R), HyperClean and military ammunition technologies. Headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona, USA, Ammo can be traded under the ticker $POWW at Nasdaq.

In the article from October 2021, we have expected a 3rd swing within a correction from June 2021 to see a reaction from 4.18-1.86 area. Indeed, the reaction has taken place in May 2022 from the blue box area. However, it has failed below June 2021 lows. Now, we see $POWW trading below May 2022. Here, we provide an update and discuss whether the bottom is near.

Ammo Monthly Elliott Wave Analysis 12.26.2022​

The monthly chart below shows the Ammo stock $POWW traded at Nasdaq. From the all-time lows, the stock price has developed a cycle higher in black wave ((I)) of grand super cycle degree towards the all-time highs on February 1998 at 195.31. From the highs, a correction lower in black wave ((II)) has unfolded as an Elliott wave zigzag pattern. It has printed an important bottom in September 2003 at 0.03. Within 5 years and half, the stock price went almost to zero. From the lows, a new cycle in wave ((III)) has already started and should extend towards 195.31 highs and even higher.

Within wave ((III)), one can see the initial cycle in wave I. Hereby, red wave I of blue wave (I) has ended in June 2021 at 10.37 highs. From there, a consolidation in wave II should find support above 0.03 lows in 3, 7, 11 swings. Once ended, a new larger cycle in red wave III towards 10.37 highs and higher should take place.

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Ammo Daily Elliott Wave Analysis 12.26.2022​

The daily chart below shows in more detail the pullback in wave II which unfolds as a zigzag pattern being 5-3-5 structure. Firstly, from the June 2021, an impulse in black wave ((A)) has set a low at 3.52 in May 2022. Secondly, a bounce in black wave ((B)) has printed a connector high at 6.05 in August 2022. Thirdly, the price broke 3.52 lows opening up a bearish sequence. While below August 2022 highs, the price can still extend lower. However, it is impossible to reach the equal legs extension area being in the negative range. One should note that the stock price has erased already RSI divergence. That might be a hint that Ammo Inc. may truncate in black wave ((C)) at 0.618-0.786 extension range being 1.81-0.65 area.

Investors and traders can buy $POWW from 1.81-0.03 area targeting 10.37 highs and higher in medium term and 195.31 highs and beyond in the long run.



Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/bottom-ammo-incorporated/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Platinum (PL) continues to trade sideways and the metal is in the process of forming an important low before the next major bullish cycle starts. The Federal Reserve has aggressively hiked rates multiple times, creating a sideways to lower movement in the commodity sectors. There's however no doubt that the longer term outlook of commodities is bullish. At this stage, there's enough number of swing to call the daily and monthly correction completed. However, we still need more data and evidence to call the correction completed. In the meantime, we still give a possibility for the metal to extend lower until the market says otherwise. Below is the update of the Elliott Wave chart in Platinum.

Platinum Monthly Elliott Wave Chart​

Monthly Elliott Wave Chart of Platinum (PL) above suggests that the metal spent majority of the time in 2022 to correct the rally from March 2020 low. The entire rally from 1992 low ended with wave ((I)) at 2308.8 and pullback in wave ((II)) ended at 562. The metal extends higher in wave ((III)) with internal subdivision as another impulse. Up from wave ((II)), wave (I) ended at 1348.2 and pullback in wave (II) is proposed complete at 796.8. Expect Platinum to extend higher in 2023 as it resumes the next bullish cycle.

Platinum Daily Elliott Wave Chart​

Daily Elliott Wave Chart for Platinum suggests that wave (II) pullback already completed at 796.8. This view will get confirmation when the metal manages to break above previous peak wave (I) at 1348.2. Successful break, if it happens, will also rule out a double correction in the metal. The current stage as we get close to end 2022 sets up for a promising bullish outlook in 2023. We continue to expect further upside as far as it stays above 562.6.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/commodities/platinum-pl-ready-rally-2023/