Elliott Wave Analysis by EWF

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this technical blog, we will look at the past performance of the 1-hour Elliott Wave Charts of NASDAQ ticker symbol: $NQ_F. In which, the decline from 13 December 2022 high ended 5 waves in an impulse sequence and showed a lower low sequence in a lower time frame charts. Therefore, we knew that the structure in NASDAQ is incomplete to the downside & should see more weakness. So, we advised members to sell the bounces in 3, 7, or 11 swings at the extreme areas. We will explain the structure & forecast below:

NASDAQ 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart​

Above is the 1hr Elliott wave Chart from the 12/27/2022 Asia update. In which, the decline from 13 December unfolded in an impulse sequence & showed a lower sequence where the index made a short-term bounce in wave ((ii)). The internals of that bounce unfolded as an Elliott wave double correction where wave (w) ended at $11143 high. Then a decline to $10916 low ended wave (x) pullback and started the (y) leg higher towards $11182- $11348 equal legs area from where sellers were expected to appear looking for more downside or for a 3 wave reaction lower at least.

NASDAQ Latest 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart​

This is the Latest 1hr view from the 12/27/2022 Midday update. In which the index is showing a strong reaction lower taking place from the equal legs area allowing shorts to get into a risk-free position shortly after taking the position.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/nasdaq-reacting-lower-equal-legs-area/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Microsoft Corporation is an American multinational technology corporation producing computer software, consumer electronics, personal computers, and related services headquartered at the Microsoft Redmond campus located in Redmond, Washington and listed on NASDAQ stock exchange with the ticker symbol (MSFT).

The series of rate hikes by the Fed has provided a challenge for the World Indices and individual stocks. Stock markets kept making a lower lows since they formed the peak in 2021. We saw a strong reaction higher after the low seen at the end of October or early November 2022 and many started to believe that correction is over and a new wave of bull market has started. However, in this blog, we will look at incomplete Elliott Wave Sequence in Microsoft which negates the view that correction is over at least in the tech stocks and related Indices / ETFs.

Microsoft (MSFT) Daily Elliott Wave Chart​

Daily Chart of MSFT (NASDAQ) shows that it has a bearish sequence from 11.22.2021 high. Structure of the decline is in a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from 11.22.2021 high, wave ((A)) ended at 271.52 and wave ((B)) corrective bounce ended at 315.95. The stock then extended lower in wave ((C)) towards 241.51 which also completed cycle degree wave "w". Wave "x" bounce ended at 294.18 and the stock has resumed lower. Wave "y" is now in progress and with a new low below wave "w", there are now 5 swing down from the peak at 11.22.2021 and this makes it an incomplete sequence and calls for more downside towards 100% – 123.6% (185.85 - 118.97) area to complete 7 swing sequence. This is where buyers are expected to appear for a new leg higher or 3 waves rally at least.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/microsoft-elliott-wave-sequence-lower/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

HDFC Bank Limited is an Indian banking and financial services company headquartered in Mumbai. It is India’s largest private sector bank by assets and world’s 10th largest bank by market capitalization as of April 2021, the third largest company by market capitalization of $122.50 billion on the Indian stock exchanges. It is also the fifteenth largest employer in India with nearly 120,000 employees.

HDFC BANK Daily Chart August 09th 2022​

HDFC BANK completed an impulse at 1726.02 from March 2020 low and we called it wave I. From there we had a corrective movement. The drop from the peak 1726.02 was in 3 waves. Wave ((A)) ended at 1291.96 making 3 swings lower. The market had a strong rebound that tested the highs ending wave ((B)) at 1721.65 and turned lower quickly. Therefore, wave ((C)) and wave II ended the cycle at 1270.19 to continue the rally from the blue box. (If you want to learn more about Elliott Wave Theory, follow these links: Elliott Wave Education and Elliott Wave Theory).

HDFC BANK Daily Chart December 28th 2022​

The chart above, it is showing a clear impulse from the blue box that we called wave ((1)) ended at 1540.77. Wave (2) correction was sharply ended at 1364.09 and bounce again. Currently, we are looking to end another impulse in lesser degree as wave 1. Up from 1364.09, wave ((i)) ended at 1462.97 and wave ((ii)) pullback finished at 1382.99. Then HDFC continued completing 5 waves up and wave ((iii)) at 1669.46 and pullback wave ((iv)) as zig zag structure ended at 1584.39. We are expecting one more higher to reach 1689 - 1722 area to complete wave ((v)) of 1 before see 3 or 7 swings correction as wave 2 and rally again. To confirm this last high HDFC needs to break 1669.46, if market breaks first 1584.39 low, then wave 1 is done and wave 2 has already started. The count is valid as market stays above 1364.09.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/hdfc-bank-good-rally-blue-box/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

One of the most trending and discussed stocks as of recent is Tesla. People seeing the decline in the stock and not able to understand why it is happening. TSLA has ended a grand degree super cycle. When an instrument ends a larger degree super cycle the pullback usually gets extensive and deep from the lowest lows. Being a member of Elliott Wave Forecast you can see where an instrument stand within the larger degree on the weekly chart. We update those during weekends once a week. Having the befit of knowing where we stand within a cycle should help you make better trading or investment decisions.

Let's have a look at Tesla back from November until today so you can see how we were forecasting this leg lower within the grand super cycle. It's crucial to understand that markets move within cycles and nothing moves in one direction without a pullback. As investors and traders have to take profits. At Elliott Wave Forecast we have developed a system that allows us to see the market in a unique way not based only on traditional Elliott Wave counts. We use market correlations, distribution and sequences to determine a cycle and a possible path. In addition we know that the market nowadays is traded by high frequency machines. We are able to calculate areas which a reaction is highly likely to take place.

TSLA 11.09.22 4 Hour chart​

We have a bearish sequence here in TSLA with a connector at 237.54 end calling the first wave lower in (1) to be underway. More downside expected after wave (2) bounce staying below 237.54.

Now let's have a look at TSLA as of latest 4 hour chart.

TSLA 12.29.22 4 Hour chart​

We can see how nicely the market reacted lower within the wave (3). Currently it is trading within wave 3 in red. This means soon we will be getting a bounce in wave 4 before another leg down in wave 5 to end larger degree wave (3).

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/tsla-forecasting-the-decline-in-tesla-from-november/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

The Fed has done a series of hike the benchmark interest rate last year. As a result, Indices have not performed well last year due to the rising rate environment. One of the popular vehicles to trade Indices is QQQ. Invesco QQQ is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index™. The Index includes the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq based on market cap. Below we will take a look at the Daily Elliott Wave chart for QQQ which favors further downside overall.

QQQ Daily Elliott Wave Chart​

Daily Chart of QQQ (ETF tracking Nasdaq-100 Index) above shows that the ETF has incomplete bearish sequence from 11.22.2021 favoring further downside. The decline from 11.22.2021 takes the form of a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from 11.22.2021 high, wave (W) ended at 334.15 and wave (X) rally ended at 371.83. The ETF then extends lower in wave (Y) towards 269.28 which completed wave ((W)). The ETF then bounced higher in wave ((X)) as a zigzag which ended at 334.42. Wave ((Y)) lower is currently in progress with internal subdivision as a zigzag. Down from wave ((X)), wave (A) ended at 254.25 and rally in wave (B) ended at 296.88. Expect wave (C) lower to reach the 100% - 123.6% Fibonacci extension at 161.96 - 194.93 area to complete wave ((Y)).

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/qqq-see-downside/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Mattel, Inc. (MAT), a children’s entertainment company, designs & produces toys & consumer products worldwide. The company operates through North America, International & American Girl segments. It is based in El Segundo, CA, comes under Consumer Cyclical sector & trades as “MAT” ticket at Nasdaq.

In the previous article, MAT expected to extend lower in ((C)) of wave II correction. It expected to extend towards $18.23 - $14.54 area in zigzag correction before turning higher. It already reached that area & still expect small downside to finish wave II before turning higher.

MAT - Elliott Wave View From 9/27/2022:​

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It placed ((1)) at $9.44 high & ((2)) at $7.54 low. ((2)) was a flat correction retraced 0.618 Fibonacci level against ((1)). While above there, it extended higher in third wave extension. It ended ((3)) at $23.31 high on 4/23/2021. Below there, it favored ended ((4)) at $17.95 low on 10/04/2021. ((4)) was ended slightly above 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of ((3)). Finally, it ended ((5)) at $26.99 high on 5/04/2022 as wave I red as impulse sequence. While below there, it favors correcting lower in II in zigzag correction.

MAT - Elliott Wave Latest Weekly View:​

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Below wave I high, it placed ((A)) at $21.07 low on 5/24/2022 & ((B)) at $24.20 high as triangle on 9/12/2022. While below there, it favors lower in ((C)) leg to finish II correction. It already reached the extreme areas between $18.23 - $14.54 as expected in previous article. But it still expects weakness to continue. It favors bounce in 2 of (5) before turning lower in 3 & expects at least two more lows, while bounce fails below (4) high. Later, it expects to resume upside either in III or at least a larger 3 swings reaction higher.

MAT - Elliott Wave Latest Daily View:​

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Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/mat-expect-short-term-weakness-turning-higher/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

The Walt Disney Company, commonly known as Disney DIS, it is an American, multinational, mass media and entertainment conglomerate that is headquartered at the Walt Disney Studios complex in Burbank, California. Disney was founded on October 16, 1923, by brothers Walt and Roy O. Disney as Disney Brothers Studio.

DIS Daily Chart December 2021​

One year ago, we were looking to finish a double correction of a new cycle that started at the low of March 2020. We can see on the chart that we were building a connector ((X)) and then continued lower. However, after completing the connector DIS dropped strongly, so it is better to think that the correction that is being carried out is a Great Super Cycle correction. This means that the market is making a retracement of the entire cycle since DIS existed as a company.

DIS Quarterly Chart December 2022​

We can see on the chart, almost the entire life of the Disney stock price. The structure formed is clearly an impulse. Wave (I) ended at 42.71. Then we can see a flat correction as wave (II) ending at 13.46 in the .com recession. From there DIS went a long way to complete wave (III) at 153.41, where we can see 5 waves to the upside in red. The wave (IV) arrived at the beginning of the covid19 pandemic, ending in March 2020 at 79.07. The last rally to complete wave (V) of ((I)), of the great super cycle, ended at 203.02.

The drop from the peak has been very deep. It has already broken the 50% Fibonacci retracement taking the retracement from 0 to 203.02. The structure of wave ((II)) still looks incomplete and needs more bearish movement.

DIS Weekly Chart December 2022​

In the weekly chart we can see the entire structure of the wave ((II)) correction. The structure of wave (w) in blue took the form of a double correction 3-7-3. Connector (x) built a flat correction. This was the connector ((X)) we were looking for a year ago before continuing down. Currently, we are looking to finish a 5-3-5 zig zag correction to complete wave (y) and wave ((II)). From the b-wave high that ended at 126.55, we need to complete a bearish impulse to finish the whole correction. The bearish continuation should take us to the blue box in 59.05 - 43.07 area where the rally should continue.

Disney (DIS) is giving us a great long-term buying opportunity. The first attempt to buy is in the zone of 59.05 - 43.07. If the market breaks below this area, the next level to watch comes at 35.85. Only a break above 126.55 could give us a good alert that the correction is over and we will continue the rally. However, the only way to ensure that the wave ((II)) ended is to break the high of 203.02.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/disney-dis-opportunity-long-term-buying/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Huya Live is a Chinese video live streaming service. The site is one of the largest of its kind in China. Globally, it operates as Nimo TV. The primary focus of the service is on video game live streaming. Also, it broadcasts other genres like traditional sports, cooking and other streams. Huya Live has been launched 2014 by YY.com which is a subsidiary of JOYY Inc. Today, the majority vote of Huya Live belongs to Tencent with minority to JOYY. One can trade the stock of the company under the ticker $HUYA at Nasdaq.

Huya Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis 1.3.2023​

The upper part of the weekly chart below shows the Huya Live shares $HUYA traded at Nasdaq. From the lows, the stock price has developed an initial cycle higher in blue wave (I) of super cycle degree towards 80.82 all-time highs in June 2018. From there, a correction lower in blue wave (II) is unfolding as an Elliott wave zigzag pattern being 5-3-5 structure.

Firstly, red wave a of blue wave (II) has printed a low at 11.78 in March 2020. Then, a bounce has set a connector wave b at 36.33 highs in February 2021. Later on, the price has broken 11.78 lows opening up a bearish sequence. However, 100% extension of the wave c based on the length of the wave a is in the negative area. Obviously, it cannot be reached. Based on both the RSI readings and price action, $HUYA might have ended red wave c of blue wave (II) at 1.64 lows in October 2022. While above there, a new bullish cycle in blue wave (III) might have started and is now in the initial stages. The target for wave (III) will be 52.61-84.07 area and even higher.

Joyy Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis 1.3.2023​

For comparison, the lower part of the weekly chart below shows the JOYY Inc. shares $YY traded at Nasdaq. From the lows, the stock price has developed an initial cycle higher in blue wave (I) of super cycle degree towards 142.97 highs in January 2018. From there, a correction lower in blue wave (II) is unfolding as an Elliott wave expanded flat structure being 3-3-5 structure.

Firstly, red wave a of blue wave (II) has printed a low at 41.33 in March 2020. Then, a bounce has set a connector wave b at 148.88 new all-time highs in February 2021. Later on, the price has broken 41.33 lows confirming the expanded flat structure. Similar to $HUYA, both the RSI readings and price action favor the low of wave (II) to be in place at 21.38 lows in October 2022. While above there, wave (III) can reach towards 165.06-235.91 area and even higher.

One can see how the expanded flat structure in $YY correlates with the zigzag structure in the $HUYA and how the end of the flat in JOYY Inc. can mean the end of the zigzag correction in the stock of Huya Live.



Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/joyy-supports-huya-live/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this technical blog, we will look at the past performance of the 1-hour Elliott Wave Charts of the Tesla ticker symbol: TSLA. In which, the decline from the 01 December 2022 high unfolded as an impulse sequence and showed a lower low sequence within the bigger cycle from November 2021 peak. Therefore, we knew that the structure of Tesla is incomplete to the downside & should see more weakness. So, we advised members to sell the bounces in 3, 7, or 11 swings at the blue box areas. We will explain the structure & forecast below:

Tesla 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart​

Here’s the 1-hour Elliott wave Chart from the 12/30/2022 update. In which, the decline to $104.22 low ended wave ((iii)) & made a bounce in wave ((iv)). The internals of that bounce unfolded as an Elliott wave flat correction. And managed to reach the blue box area towards $120.27- $127.75 blue box area from where sellers were expected to appear looking for more downside or for a 3 wave reaction lower at least.

Tesla Latest 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart​

This is the Latest 1-hour view from the 1/04/2023 Midday update. In which the stock is showing a reaction lower taking place from the blue box area allowing shorts to get into a risk-free position shortly after taking the position. However, a break below the 12/28/2022 low would still be needed to confirm the next extension lower & avoid a double correction higher. Now, as far as bounces fail below $124.56 high Tesla should see some more downside towards $99.24- $91.44 area lower minimum before a bounce happens.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/tesla-provided-selling-opportunity-blue-box/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Good day Traders and Investors. In today’s article, we will look at the past performance of Caterpillar Inc. ($CAT). In our last article we explained that the stock has reached the Blue Box area where a bounce can happen. This is how we saw it back in Sep 2022.

$CAT ElliottWave September 2022 View (Weekly):​

$CAT ElliottWave January 2023 View (Weekly):​

The stock has managed to make a new low below July but was still within the $170- 128 Blue Box area. The new lows came at $160.59 on 09.26.2022 ending the correction against 2009 cycle at (II). The bounce from $160.60 has unfolded in an impulsive structure breaking all time highs which confirms that the correction has ended. Once wave ((1)) is completed, expect a pullback in 3 or 7 swings to correct the cycle against 09.26.2022 lows where we expect buyers to enter for a continuation higher. We like buying it at blue boxes against 09.26.2022.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/caterpillar-cat-bounce-made-new-time-highs-whats-next/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) as diversified financial services company, provides banking, investment, mortgage, consumer & commercial finance products & services in the US & internationally. It operates through four segments, consumer banking & lending, commercial banking, corporate & investment banking & wealth & investment management. It is based in San Francisco, CA, comes under Financial services sector & trades as “WFC” ticker at NYSE.

WFC showing impulse up since October - 2020 low as wave I, which ended at $60.30 high. Below there, it expects weakness to continue in proposed double three correction in wave II before turning higher.

WFC - Elliott Wave Latest Daily View :​

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It made the low of $20.76 on October – 2020 & above there it ended I at $60.30 high on 2/10/2022. Below there, it started correcting lower in II & expects further weakness to continue. It favored ended (A) of ((W)) at $40.73 low. Above there, it bounced off in (B) wave, which ended at $46.27 high. Finally, below there it ended (C) at $36.54 low as truncated wave & finished ((W)) on 6/16/2022 low. Above there, it proposed ended ((X)) in 3 swing bounce at $48.36 high as 0.5 Fibonacci retracement against ((W)) leg.

Below ((X)) leg, it expects weakness to continue, which confirms below $36.54 low as ((Y)) leg. It ended 1 red of (A) at $40.02 low & bouncing in wave 2, which expects to fail below ((X)) high to see further downside. It expects (A) to extend lower towards $33.91 - $30.42 area before a bounce in (B) leg. Later, it should resume lower in (C) leg towards $24.79 or lower levels to finish wave II before turning higher. Until it breaks below $36.54 low, it still can extend ((X)) wave either in double or flat correction before turning lower. Alternatively, if it breaks above $60.30 high, it confirms the next sequence higher in III red.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/wfc-expects-sideways-lower-correction/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Hello fellow traders. In this technical article we’re going to take a look at the Elliott Wave charts charts of CHFJPY published in members area of the website. Recently the pair made short term recovery against the 148.53 8 peak that has unfolded as Elliott Wave Double Three Pattern. It made clear 7 swings from the lows and completed at the Blue Box ( selling zone) . In further text we’re going to explain the Elliott Wave pattern and trading setup

Before we take a look at the real market example, let’s explain Elliott Wave Double Three pattern.

Elliott Wave Double Three Pattern

Double three is the common pattern in the market , also known as 7 swing structure. It’s a reliable pattern which is giving us good trading entries with clearly defined invalidation levels.
The picture below presents what Elliott Wave Double Three pattern looks like. It has (W),(X),(Y) labeling and 3,3,3 inner structure, which means all of these 3 legs are corrective sequences. Each (W) and (Y) are made of 3 swings , they’re having A,B,C structure in lower degree, or alternatively they can have W,X,Y labeling.

CHFJPY 1h Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 12.27.2022​

CHFJPY is giving us B red recovery against the 148.538 peak. Correction is unfolding as Elliott Wave Double Three Pattern with ((w))((x))((y)) black inner labeling. We can see that each leg has corrective sequences. Price structure already shows 7 swings and the pair is reaching extreme zone : 143.82-145.20. That area is marked as a Blue Box on the chart and that is our selling zone. At the marked area buyers should be ideally taking profits and sellers can appear again. Consequently , we expect to see reaction from the marked area. From mentioned zone we can get either decline toward new lows or larger 3 waves pull back at least. Once pull back reaches 50 Fibs against the ((x)) black low, we will make short position risk free ( put SL at BE) and take partial profits. Break of 1.618 fib extension: 145.2 would invalidated the trade.

You can learn more about Elliott WaveDouble Three and Zig Zag Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.

CHFJPY 1h Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 1.3.2023​

The pair found sellers right at the blue box and made decline from there toward new lows. As a result, members who took short trades mad positions risk free . ( Put SL at BE) and took partial profits. At this stage we see the pair remains bearish against the 144.91 pivot. Decline from the peak looks to be unfolding as 5 waves. As soon as the cycle completes we expect to see correction against the 144.91 peak. As far as the price stays above that level, and that pivot holds more downside can be seen in the pair once expected bounce completes.

Keep in mind market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences.We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.



Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/elliottwave/chfjpy-selling-elliott-wave-double-three/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Gold Miners Junior (ticker: GDXJ) spent the past two years in a deep correction, but it looks to have found the bottom on 9.26.2022 low at 25.80 as the second chart (the Daily chart) below shows. The rally from 9.26.2022 low is in 5 waves (impulsive), suggesting that the bottom is likely in place and it's ready to rally higher. This sets up the ETF to perform very well in coming months and years as the monthly chart below shows. We use Elliott Wave to analyze the potential path.

GDXJ Monthly Elliott Wave View​

Monthly Elliott Wave chart of GDXJ suggests the ETF bottomed on January 2016 low at 16.14 as wave ((II)). The instrument then rally higher as a nest. Up from wave ((II)), wave (I) ended at 52.5 and pullback in wave (II) ended at 19.52. Gold Miners Junior ETF then extends higher again in wave I of (III) towards 65.95 and pullback in wave II ended at 25.80. While dips continue to stay above January 2016 low, expect the ETF to continue to extend higher.

GDXJ Daily Elliott Wave View​

Daily Elliott Wave Chart of GDXJ above shows wave (II) ended at 19.40. Wave (III) rally has started with internal subdivision as another 5 waves. Up from wave (II), wave I ended at 65.95 and dips in wave II ended at 25.80. The rally from there is impulsive suggesting the next bullish leg has started. Up from wave II, wave (1) ended at 32.34, and wave (2) ended at 28.45. The ETF extends higher again in wave (3) towards 37.41 and wave (4) ended at 33.89. Expect wave (5) of ((1)) to end with a few more high. Afterwards, it should pullback in wave ((2)) to correct cycle from 9.26.2022 low before the rally resumes higher.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/five-waves-rally-gdxj-suggests-bottom-place/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is an American multinational corporation founded in 1886 that develops medical devices, pharmaceuticals, and consumer packaged goods. Its common stock is a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the company is ranked No. 36 on the 2021 Fortune 500 list of the largest United States corporations by total revenue. Johnson & Johnson is one of the world's most valuable companies and is one of only two U.S.-based companies that has a prime credit rating of AAA, higher than that of the United States government.

JNJ August 2022 Daily Chart ​

After JNJ ended wave I cycle we believe that wave II is doing a double correction. The first wave ((W)) did a double correction from 179.92 to end at 155.71. Then rally to 186.62, we labeled as a zig zag correction as wave ((X)). Currently we are developing wave ((Y)) and the structure shows that the best count is as a double correction. Down from 4/25/2022 high, we could see 7 swings lower completing wave W at 167.26. A strong bounce ended wave X at 183.41. We were looking for another 7 swings correction lower to complete (W) in the blue box area in 163.89 - 159.30. Then, we expected at least 3 swings higher as wave (X) before continue lower. (If you want to learn more about Elliott Wave Theory, please follow these links: Elliott Wave Education and Elliott Wave Theory).

JNJ January 2023 Daily Chart​

Wave (W) ended just below the blue box at 159.17 and bounced sharply. Wave A ended at 175.39. Then, we saw 3 swings lower and ended wave B at 166.75. From here, another impulse took place to complete wave C and wave (X) at 180.04. As long as JNJ price remains below 186.62, we expect more bearish movement to break the low of the wave (W). In the near term, we believe that wave ((i)) and ((ii)) have ended and we should see a bullish consolidation before continuing lower.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/jnj/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

One of the well known facts of the market are correlations between instruments. However that rule does not apply every time in every instrument. Here at Elliott Wave Forecast we call a first degree correlation when 2 instruments move together according to how they are related. For example everyone knows that if the USDX is weak then the counterparts like Gold or Cryptocurrencies need to move in the opposite direction. The opposite is called second dimension correlation. It occurs when the 2 correlated instruments do not move tick by tick the same and deviate the rule of first degree correlation. In this article we will see how we were able to forecast the wave (5) in LTCUSD while other cryptos remained weak.

LTCUSD 1 hour New York update 12.23.22​

Litecoin was expected to start the next leg higher in wave (5) while above 61.15. While other related instruments were expected to remain weak. LTCUSD made the move higher and currently within wave 3 of (5). Let's have a look on how it looks today.

LTC 1.10.23 1 hour Asia update​

Now Litecoin is extending higher in wave ((iii)) of 3. Pullback soon in wave ((iv)) before ((v)) higher to end wave 3 in red. More upside should continue thereafter. As wave 4 in red pullback should find support for a wave 5 of (5) to end a larger degree cycle.
If you have a look at other related instruments the view looks different. This is because LTCUSD has been reacting in a second dimension correlation within it's larger degree cycle.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/me...e-wave-5-within-second-dimension-correlation/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Natural Gas (NG) has lost over 63% in value since the peak in August 2022. It has been a rather sharp decline with a sizeable recovery in the middle before the decline resumed again. Today, we will take a look at Elliott Wave structure of the decline from August 2022 peak, show some charts from members area to explain how we have been calling it lower for a while and now that October 24, 2022 low has been broken, what will be the next target area.

Natural Gas 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis - 5 December 2022​

Chart below shows Natgas initial decline from 08.23.2022 peak was an Elliott Wave Impulse within which wave (1) ended at 9.05, wave (2) ended at 9.682, wave (3) ended at 6.305, wave (4) ended at 7.188 and wave (5) ended at 4.75. Since we expected this decline to be part of a correction so we labelled it wave ((A)) anticipating the correction to unfold as a Zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Impulsive decline from 08.23.2022 peak was followed by a corrective recovery to 7.604 which we labelled as wave ((B)) and then the decline resumed again. We expected some more downside to complete wave (1) before a bounce in wave (2) to fail below 7.604 high for extension lower in wave (3) of ((C)).

Natural Gas 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis - 11 January 2023​

We can see wave (1) completed at 5.337, this was followed by a sharp recovery in wave (2) to 7.105 and then decline resumed. We have already seen a break of wave ((A)) low at 4.75 with price currently trading at 3.652. Chart shows that we are trading within wave 3 of (3) which has either ended at 3,422 or will see a bit more downside to complete wave 3 of (3). Once wave 3 is complete, expect a bounce in wave 4 and lower again in wave 5 of (3). Then, expect another bounce in wave (4) and another leg lower in wave (5) to complete 5 waves down in wave ((C)).

Natural Gas - Target Area​

Chart below shows the target area with ideal area between 2.321 - 1.073 which is 100 - 123.6% Fibonacci extension of the first leg down from 08.23.2022 peak to 10.24.2022 low projected lower from 11.23.2022 peak. This is where buyers should be entering the market and then resume the rally for a new high above 08.23.2022 peak or produce a larger 3 waves bounce at least.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/commodities/natural-gas-elliott-wave-target-area/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Uranium ETF (ticker: URA) spent the entire 2002 doing correction but this year it is ready to resume higher. This ETF invests in Uranium as well as several mining companies. With many countries looking for alternatives to fossil fuel, Uranium presents a viable alternative. Last year, there was a flurry of news about different countries announcing the building of new nuclear plants. Demand should pick up in the coming years. Below we will see the technical outlook of URA using Elliott Wave.

$URA Elliott Wave Chart Monthly Chart​

Uranium ETF (URA) Monthly Chart above shows that the instrument has ended wave ((II)) pullback at 6.95 and now looking to do the next leg higher. Up from wave ((II)), wave I ended at 31.6 and pullback in wave II is proposed complete at 17.65. Expect the ETF to continue extending higher in wave III as far as it stays above wave II low at 17.65, and more importantly above wave ((II)) low at 6.95.

$URA Daily Elliott Wave Chart​

Daily Elliott Wave Chart of Uranium ETF (URA) above shows that wave II has ended at 17.65 and the ETF has started to turn higher in wave III. Up from wave II, wave (1) ended at 24.34 and pullback in wave (2) ended at 18.47. Wave (3) higher is in progress with internal subdivision as another impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave (2), wave 1 ended at 21.33 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 19. Near term, expect the ETF to extend higher in wave 3 or (3).

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/uranium-etf-starts-next-leg-higher/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Hello fellow traders. In this technical article we’re going to take a look at the Elliott Wave charts charts of Wheat Futures ($ZW_F) published in members area of the website. As our members know Wheat Futures is trading within the cycle from the 950'6 peak. Recently ZW_F made short term recovery that has unfolded as Elliott Wave Double Three Pattern. It made clear 7 swings from the lows and complete at the extreme zone. In further text we’re going to explain the Elliott Wave pattern and forecast.

Before we take a look at the real market example, let’s explain Elliott Wave Double Three pattern.

Elliott Wave Double Three Pattern

Double three is the common pattern in the market , also known as 7 swing structure. It’s a reliable pattern which is giving us good trading entries with clearly defined invalidation levels.
The picture below presents what Elliott Wave Double Three pattern looks like. It has (W),(X),(Y) labeling and 3,3,3 inner structure, which means all of these 3 legs are corrective sequences. Each (W) and (Y) are made of 3 swings , they’re having A,B,C structure in lower degree, or alternatively they can have W,X,Y labeling.

Wheat $ZW_F 4h Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 01.01.2023​

Current view suggests cycle from the 949'6 peak is still in progress as 5 waves structure. Wheat is giving us (4) blue recovery that is unfolding as Elliott Wave Double Three Pattern with WXY red inner labeling. If we take a close look , we can see that price structure has already reached extremes from the lows at 782'6-810'6 ( W-X red equal legs area). At that zone buyers should be ideally taking profits and sellers can appear again. Consequently , we expect to see reaction from the marked area. From mentioned zone we can get either decline toward new lows or larger 3 waves pull back at least.

You can learn more about Elliott WaveDouble Three and Zig Zag Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.

Wheat $ZW_F 4h Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 01.15.2023​

Wave (4) completed at the mentioned area and we got good reaction. Current view suggests (4) blue recovery is done at 799'1 high. Currently the commodity is giving us short term bounce against that high, that can be unfolding as a Flat structure. The price now must hold below 799'1 peak in order to keep proposed view intact.

Keep in mind not every chart is trading recommendation. You can check most recent charts and new trading setups in the membership area of the site. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.



Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/elliottwave/wheat-elliott-wave-double-three/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Hello Everyone! In this technical blog, we are going to take a look at the Elliott Wave path in Real Estate ETF ($IYR).

The iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF seeks to track the investment results of the $DJUSRE index. The index is composed of U.S. equities in the real estate sector. It provides exposure to U.S. real estate companies and REITs, which invest in real estate directly and trade like stocks.

$IYR 4H Elliott Wave Analysis Jan 16 2023:​

The 4H chart above is showing the path in $IYR since Oct lows. The ETF is favoured to have struck a low at $75.66 and is bouncing to correct the cycle against all time highs. So far, the bounce from Oct lows unfolded in 5 waves with divergence at blue (1). The pullback in (2) unfolded in a corrective 3 waves structure and found buyers at $82.28. The bounce extended and ended breaking above blue (1) peak at $90.47 which in our system opened a bullish sequence in the 4H timeframe. As long as $82.28 lows hold, we expect $IYR to continue higher and reach 97.12 - 106.32 before a reaction lower can take place. We like to buy dips in 3, 7 or 11 swings against blue (2) targeting the equal legs area.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/st...e-suggests-real-estate-etf-iyr-extend-higher/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Swatch Group is a Swiss manufacturer of watches and jewellery. Besides the product line Swatch, the group owns brands including Blancpain, Breguet, ETA, Glashütte, Omega, Longines, Tissot, Hamilton, Certina, Rado and Harry Winston. As a matter of fact, the Swatch company employs about 36000 people in over 50 countries. Founded 1983 and headquartered in Biel/Bienne, Switzerland, it can be traded under tickers $UHRN and $UHR at Six Swiss Exchange. After printing the all-time highs in April 2014, the stock price has lost about 3/4 of the price by March 2020. Currently, we see Swatch starting a new larger cycle higher.

In the initial article from March 2021, we have called for a new cycle up. We were right. Then, we saw a pullback reseting part of the rise from March 2020 lows. In the last article from May 2022, we have analyzed the consolidation pattern and provided a buying area for medium- and long-term investors. Indeed, the stock has bounced from 40.95-29.82 area. We were right again. Now, we see Swatch starting next bullish cycle. In the current blog we will provide an update including price targets.

Swatch Monthly Elliott Wave Analysis 01.16.2023​

The monthly chart below shows the Swatch stock $UHRN traded at Six Swiss. From the all-time lows, the stock price has developed a cycle higher in wave ((I)) of a grand super cycle degree. Swatch has printed the all-time highs in April 2014 at 108.00. Without any doubt, the advance is a textbook quality impulsive move up in 5 waves. Also, the subdivisions are motive waves, too. From April 2014 highs, a correction lower in wave ((II)) has unfolded as a double three pattern being 3-3-3 structure. It has reached the equal legs extension area towards 31.74-17.66. From that area, a strong reaction higher can be seen. Hereby, Swatch might be in the first stages of a new cycle in black wave ((III)) higher. While above 28.56, Swatch should extend towards the new all-time highs targeting the 135.96-202.34 area and even higher.

​

Swatch Daily Elliott Wave Analysis 01.16.2023​

The daily chart below shows the intial nest consisting of red waves I-II of blue wave (I). From the March 2020 lows, red wave I has developed an impuls higher. It has ended in June 2021 at 64.30. From there, a pullback in wave II has unfolded as an Elliott wave zigzag pattern. First, wave ((A)) has ended in October 2021 at 46.32. Then, a connector in wave ((B)) has printed a lower high at 58.95. From there, wave ((C)) has developed an ending diagonal structure. It has reached into 40.95-29.82 buying area. There, in July 2022, a perfect reaction higher has taken place. Investors and traders have been able to go long there.

While above 40.40, expect a rally in wave III targeting in medium term 76.30-98.49 area and even higher. Short-term, blue wave (3) of black wave ((1)) is in progress. It has reached already 2x extension of the blue wave (1). As next, $UHRN can reach 59.15 being the 2.618x extension.



Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/swatch-starts-mext-rally/