EUR/USD analysis of the week (4h candlesticks)
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EUR/USD's rally resumes after brief retreat and reaches as high as 1.4791 so far. Further rally should still be seen towards 1.4867 key resistance. But after all, we'd continue to expect further loss of upside momentum and reversal signal as EUR/USD approaches this level. On the downside, break of 1.4611 support will now be an early signal that EUR/USD has topped out and will turn bias back to the downside for 1.4446 resistance turned support first.[actionforex]
P&F EURUSD1 Box Size 7X3 or(0.14%) CLOSE
Data 1.4801 - 1.4612 ~ 0 Month ~ 1.12 Day
Database 1612 records 1.48013 (Last Close)
2009-09-21 08~56
2009-09-22 11~51 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group
1.4805|~7||||______________________________________|-0.03%|1.32%
1.4798|~14|||____________________________________x_|0.02%|1.27%
1.4791|~21|||____________________________________x_|0.07%|1.23%
1.4784|~28|||____________________________________x_|0.11%|1.18%
1.4777|~35|||____________________________________x_|0.16%|1.13%
1.4770|~42|||____________________________________x_|0.21%|1.08%
1.4763|~49|||____________________________________x_|0.26%|1.03%
1.4756|~56|||____________________________________x_|0.3%|0.99%
1.4749|~63|||____________________________________x_|0.35%|0.94%
1.4742|~7O|||________________________________x___x_|0.4%|0.89%
1.4735|~77|||________________________________x_o_x_|0.45%|0.84%
1.4728|~84|||________________________________x_o_x_|0.49%|0.79%
1.4721|~91|||________________________________x_o___|0.54%|0.75%
1.4714|~98|||________________________________x_____|0.59%|0.7%
1.4707|~1O5||________________________________x_____|0.64%|0.65%
1.4700|~112||________________________x_______x_____|0.68%|0.6%
1.4693|~119||________________________x_o_____x_____|0.73%|0.55%
1.4686|~126||________________________x_o_x___x_____|0.78%|0.51%
1.4679|~133||________________________x_o_x_o_x_____|0.82%|0.46%
1.4672|~14O||________________________x_o_x_o_x_____|0.87%|0.41%
1.4665|~147||x___x___x_______________x_o___o_______|0.92%|0.36%
1.4658|~154||x_o_x_o_x_o_____x___x___x_____________|0.97%|0.31%
1.4651|~161||__o_x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_x_____________|1.01%|0.27%
1.4644|~168||__o___o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_x_____________|1.06%|0.22%
1.4637|~175||______o___o_____x_o_x_o_______________|1.11%|0.17%
1.4630|~182||__________o_x___x_o___________________|1.16%|0.12%
1.4623|~189||__________o_x_o_x_____________________|1.2%|0.08%
1.4616|~196||__________o_x_o_x_____________________|1.25%|0.03%
1.4609|~2O3||__________o___o________________
P&F EURUSD1 Box Size 7X3 or(0.14%) CLOSE
Data 1.4801 - 1.4612 ~ 0 Month ~ 1.12 Day
Database 1612 records 1.48013 (Last Close)
2009-09-21 08~56
2009-09-22 11~51 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group
1.4805|~7||||______________________________________|-0.03%|1.32%
1.4798|~14|||____________________________________x_|0.02%|1.27%
1.4791|~21|||____________________________________x_|0.07%|1.23%
1.4784|~28|||____________________________________x_|0.11%|1.18%
1.4777|~35|||____________________________________x_|0.16%|1.13%
1.4770|~42|||____________________________________x_|0.21%|1.08%
1.4763|~49|||____________________________________x_|0.26%|1.03%
1.4756|~56|||____________________________________x_|0.3%|0.99%
1.4749|~63|||____________________________________x_|0.35%|0.94%
1.4742|~7O|||________________________________x___x_|0.4%|0.89%
1.4735|~77|||________________________________x_o_x_|0.45%|0.84%
1.4728|~84|||________________________________x_o_x_|0.49%|0.79%
1.4721|~91|||________________________________x_o___|0.54%|0.75%
1.4714|~98|||________________________________x_____|0.59%|0.7%
1.4707|~1O5||________________________________x_____|0.64%|0.65%
1.4700|~112||________________________x_______x_____|0.68%|0.6%
1.4693|~119||________________________x_o_____x_____|0.73%|0.55%
1.4686|~126||________________________x_o_x___x_____|0.78%|0.51%
1.4679|~133||________________________x_o_x_o_x_____|0.82%|0.46%
1.4672|~14O||________________________x_o_x_o_x_____|0.87%|0.41%
1.4665|~147||x___x___x_______________x_o___o_______|0.92%|0.36%
1.4658|~154||x_o_x_o_x_o_____x___x___x_____________|0.97%|0.31%
1.4651|~161||__o_x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_x_____________|1.01%|0.27%
1.4644|~168||__o___o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_x_____________|1.06%|0.22%
1.4637|~175||______o___o_____x_o_x_o_______________|1.11%|0.17%
1.4630|~182||__________o_x___x_o___________________|1.16%|0.12%
1.4623|~189||__________o_x_o_x_____________________|1.2%|0.08%
1.4616|~196||__________o_x_o_x_____________________|1.25%|0.03%
1.4609|~2O3||__________o___o________________
As noted before, while further rise to 100% projection of 1.4177 to 1.4842 from 1.4483 at
1.5148 cannot be ruled out, upside would likely be limited there and bring pull back. Below
1.4884 minor support will indicate that a short term top should at least be formed with bearish
divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Deeper decline should be seen to 1.4483 support
in this case.
In the bigger picture, the strong break of 1.4867 resistance argues that whole fall from 1.6039
has completed at 1.2329 already and rise from there is still in progress. At this point, there
is no sign of topping yet and the current rally could extend further for retesting 1.6039 high.
Nevertheless, as we're not seeing a clear impulsive structure in the current rally, we'd expect
upside to be limited there and bring another medium term fall to continue the wide range
consolidation from from 1.6039. On the downside, break of 1.4483 support will be the first sign
that rise from 1.2456 has completed. Further break of 1.3747 support will confirm and turn
focus back to 1.2329/2456 support zone.[actionforex]
"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 150X3 or(3.25%) HI/LO
Data 1.6038 - 1.1639 ~ 48 Month ~ 1477 Day
Database 1050 records 1.50189 (Last Close)
2005-10-07 00~00
2009-10-23 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group"
1.6050|~15O||____________________________________________________________|-0.07%|37.9%
1.5900|~3OO||__________________x___x___x_________________________________|0.86%|36.61%
1.5750|~45O||__________________x_o_x_o_x_o_______________________________|1.8%|35.32%
1.5600|~6OO||__________________x_o_x_o_x_o_______________________________|2.73%|34.03%
1.5450|~75O||__________________x_o___o_x_o_______________________________|3.67%|32.74%
1.5300|~9OO||__________________x_____o___o_______________________________|4.6%|31.45%
1.5150|~1O5O|__________________x_________o_______________________________|5.54%|30.17%
1.5000|~12OO|__________________x_________o_____________________________x_|6.47%|28.88%
1.4850|~135O|==========x===x===x=========o=x===========================x=|7.41%|27.59%
1.4700|~15OO|__________x_o_x_o_x_________o_x_o_____________x___________x_|8.34%|26.3%
1.4550|~165O|__________x_o_x_o_x_________o_x_o_____________x_o_________x_|9.28%|25.01%
1.4400|~18OO|__________x_o___o___________o_x_o_____________x_o_________x_|10.21%|23.72%
1.4250|~195O|__________x_________________o_x_o_____________x_o_____x___x_|11.15%|22.43%
1.4100|~21OO|__________x_________________o_x_o_____________x_o_____x_o_x_|12.08%|21.14%
1.3950|~225O|__________x_________________o___o_____________x_o_____x_o_x_|13.02%|19.86%
1.3800|~24OO|__________x_____________________o_____________x_o_____x_o___|13.95%|18.57%
1.3650|~255O|__________x_____________________o_____________x_o_x___x_____|14.89%|17.28%
1.3500|~27OO|__________x_____________________o_____________x_o_x_o_x_____|15.82%|15.99%
1.3350|~285O|______x___x_____________________o_____________x_o_x_o_x_____|16.76%|14.7%
1.3200|~3OOO|______x_o_x_____________________o_x___________x_o_x_o_x_____|17.7%|13.41%
1.3050|~315O|______x_o_x_____________________o_x_o_x___x___x_o_x_o_x_____|18.63%|12.12%
1.2900|~33OO|______x_o_______________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_______|19.57%|10.83%
1.2750|~345O|______x_________________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_________|20.5%|9.55%
1.2600|~36OO|______x_________________________o_x_o___o_x_o___o___________|21.44%|8.26%
1.2450|~375O|______x_________________________o_______o___________________|22.37%|6.97%
1.2300|~39OO|__x___x_____________________________________________________|23.31%|5.68%
1.2150|~4O5O|__x_o_x_____________________________________________________|24.24%|4.39%
1.2000|~42OO|o_x_o_x_____________________________________________________|25.18%|3.1%
1.1850|~435O|o_x_o_______________________________________________________|26.11%|1.81%
1.1700|~45OO|o___________________________________________________________|27.05%|0.52%
1.1550|~465O|________________________________________________________
1.5148 cannot be ruled out, upside would likely be limited there and bring pull back. Below
1.4884 minor support will indicate that a short term top should at least be formed with bearish
divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Deeper decline should be seen to 1.4483 support
in this case.
In the bigger picture, the strong break of 1.4867 resistance argues that whole fall from 1.6039
has completed at 1.2329 already and rise from there is still in progress. At this point, there
is no sign of topping yet and the current rally could extend further for retesting 1.6039 high.
Nevertheless, as we're not seeing a clear impulsive structure in the current rally, we'd expect
upside to be limited there and bring another medium term fall to continue the wide range
consolidation from from 1.6039. On the downside, break of 1.4483 support will be the first sign
that rise from 1.2456 has completed. Further break of 1.3747 support will confirm and turn
focus back to 1.2329/2456 support zone.[actionforex]
"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 150X3 or(3.25%) HI/LO
Data 1.6038 - 1.1639 ~ 48 Month ~ 1477 Day
Database 1050 records 1.50189 (Last Close)
2005-10-07 00~00
2009-10-23 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group"
1.6050|~15O||____________________________________________________________|-0.07%|37.9%
1.5900|~3OO||__________________x___x___x_________________________________|0.86%|36.61%
1.5750|~45O||__________________x_o_x_o_x_o_______________________________|1.8%|35.32%
1.5600|~6OO||__________________x_o_x_o_x_o_______________________________|2.73%|34.03%
1.5450|~75O||__________________x_o___o_x_o_______________________________|3.67%|32.74%
1.5300|~9OO||__________________x_____o___o_______________________________|4.6%|31.45%
1.5150|~1O5O|__________________x_________o_______________________________|5.54%|30.17%
1.5000|~12OO|__________________x_________o_____________________________x_|6.47%|28.88%
1.4850|~135O|==========x===x===x=========o=x===========================x=|7.41%|27.59%
1.4700|~15OO|__________x_o_x_o_x_________o_x_o_____________x___________x_|8.34%|26.3%
1.4550|~165O|__________x_o_x_o_x_________o_x_o_____________x_o_________x_|9.28%|25.01%
1.4400|~18OO|__________x_o___o___________o_x_o_____________x_o_________x_|10.21%|23.72%
1.4250|~195O|__________x_________________o_x_o_____________x_o_____x___x_|11.15%|22.43%
1.4100|~21OO|__________x_________________o_x_o_____________x_o_____x_o_x_|12.08%|21.14%
1.3950|~225O|__________x_________________o___o_____________x_o_____x_o_x_|13.02%|19.86%
1.3800|~24OO|__________x_____________________o_____________x_o_____x_o___|13.95%|18.57%
1.3650|~255O|__________x_____________________o_____________x_o_x___x_____|14.89%|17.28%
1.3500|~27OO|__________x_____________________o_____________x_o_x_o_x_____|15.82%|15.99%
1.3350|~285O|______x___x_____________________o_____________x_o_x_o_x_____|16.76%|14.7%
1.3200|~3OOO|______x_o_x_____________________o_x___________x_o_x_o_x_____|17.7%|13.41%
1.3050|~315O|______x_o_x_____________________o_x_o_x___x___x_o_x_o_x_____|18.63%|12.12%
1.2900|~33OO|______x_o_______________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_______|19.57%|10.83%
1.2750|~345O|______x_________________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_________|20.5%|9.55%
1.2600|~36OO|______x_________________________o_x_o___o_x_o___o___________|21.44%|8.26%
1.2450|~375O|______x_________________________o_______o___________________|22.37%|6.97%
1.2300|~39OO|__x___x_____________________________________________________|23.31%|5.68%
1.2150|~4O5O|__x_o_x_____________________________________________________|24.24%|4.39%
1.2000|~42OO|o_x_o_x_____________________________________________________|25.18%|3.1%
1.1850|~435O|o_x_o_______________________________________________________|26.11%|1.81%
1.1700|~45OO|o___________________________________________________________|27.05%|0.52%
1.1550|~465O|________________________________________________________
The estimated test of key resistance range levels has been confirmed, but relative rise in buying activity, marked by OsMA trend indicator, did not favor immediate implementation of the pre-planned short positions. Nevertheless, in the bigger picture, considering close parity of both party activity while rate is contained within the borders of Ichimoku cloud, we can assume probability of rate range movement with attainment of close border of the cloud at 1,4980/1,5000 levels, where it is recommended to evaluate the development of the activity of both parties in accordance with the charts of a shorter time interval. As for short-term sales on condition of the formation of topping signals the targets will be 1,4920/40 and (or) further break-out variant up to 1,4860/80, 1,4800/20. The alternative for buyers will be above 1,5080 with the targets of 1,5120/40, 1,5180/1,5200, 1,5240/60.[actionforex]
"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 150X3 or(3.25%) HI/LO
Data 1.6038 - 1.1639 ~ 49 Month ~ 1477 Day
Database 1050 records 1.4974 (Last Close)
2005-10-31 00~00
2009-11-16 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"
1.6050|~15O||_____________________________|-0.07%|37.9%
1.5900|~3OO||________X_X_X________________|0.86%|36.61%
1.5750|~45O||________XoXoXo_______________|1.8%|35.32%
1.5600|~6OO||________XoXoXo_______________|2.73%|34.03%
1.5450|~75O||________Xo_oXo_______________|3.67%|32.74%
1.5300|~9OO||________X__o_o_______________|4.6%|31.45%
1.5150|~1O5O|________X____o_______________|5.54%|30.17%
1.5000|~12OO|________X____o______________X|6.47%|28.88%
1.4850|~135O|____X_X_X____oX_____________X|7.41%|27.59%
1.4700|~15OO|____XoXoX____oXo______X_____X|8.34%|26.3%
1.4550|~165O|____XoXoX____oXo______Xo____X|9.28%|25.01%
1.4400|~18OO|____Xo_o_____oXo______Xo____X|10.21%|23.72%
1.4250|~195O|____X________oXo______Xo__X_X|11.15%|22.43%
1.4100|~21OO|____X________oXo______Xo__XoX|12.08%|21.14%
1.3950|~225O|____X________o_o______Xo__XoX|13.02%|19.86%
1.3800|~24OO|____X__________o______Xo__Xo_|13.95%|18.57%
1.3650|~255O|____X__________o______XoX_X__|14.89%|17.28%
1.3500|~27OO|____X__________o______XoXoX__|15.82%|15.99%
1.3350|~285O|__X_X__________o______XoXoX__|16.76%|14.7%
1.3200|~3OOO|__XoX__________oX_____XoXoX__|17.7%|13.41%
1.3050|~315O|__XoX__________oXoX_X_XoXoX__|18.63%|12.12%
1.2900|~33OO|__Xo___________oXoXoXoXoXo___|19.57%|10.83%
1.2750|~345O|__X____________oXoXoXoXoX____|20.5%|9.55%
1.2600|~36OO|__X____________oXo_oXo_o_____|21.44%|8.26%
1.2450|~375O|__X____________o___o_________|22.37%|6.97%
1.2300|~39OO|X_X__________________________|23.31%|5.68%
1.2150|~4O5O|XoX__________________________|24.24%|4.39%
1.2000|~42OO|XoX__________________________|25.18%|3.1%
1.1850|~435O|Xo___________________________|26.11%|1.81%
1.1700|~45OO|_____________________________|27.05%|0.52%
1.1550|~465O|________________________
"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 150X3 or(3.25%) HI/LO
Data 1.6038 - 1.1639 ~ 49 Month ~ 1477 Day
Database 1050 records 1.4974 (Last Close)
2005-10-31 00~00
2009-11-16 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"
1.6050|~15O||_____________________________|-0.07%|37.9%
1.5900|~3OO||________X_X_X________________|0.86%|36.61%
1.5750|~45O||________XoXoXo_______________|1.8%|35.32%
1.5600|~6OO||________XoXoXo_______________|2.73%|34.03%
1.5450|~75O||________Xo_oXo_______________|3.67%|32.74%
1.5300|~9OO||________X__o_o_______________|4.6%|31.45%
1.5150|~1O5O|________X____o_______________|5.54%|30.17%
1.5000|~12OO|________X____o______________X|6.47%|28.88%
1.4850|~135O|____X_X_X____oX_____________X|7.41%|27.59%
1.4700|~15OO|____XoXoX____oXo______X_____X|8.34%|26.3%
1.4550|~165O|____XoXoX____oXo______Xo____X|9.28%|25.01%
1.4400|~18OO|____Xo_o_____oXo______Xo____X|10.21%|23.72%
1.4250|~195O|____X________oXo______Xo__X_X|11.15%|22.43%
1.4100|~21OO|____X________oXo______Xo__XoX|12.08%|21.14%
1.3950|~225O|____X________o_o______Xo__XoX|13.02%|19.86%
1.3800|~24OO|____X__________o______Xo__Xo_|13.95%|18.57%
1.3650|~255O|____X__________o______XoX_X__|14.89%|17.28%
1.3500|~27OO|____X__________o______XoXoX__|15.82%|15.99%
1.3350|~285O|__X_X__________o______XoXoX__|16.76%|14.7%
1.3200|~3OOO|__XoX__________oX_____XoXoX__|17.7%|13.41%
1.3050|~315O|__XoX__________oXoX_X_XoXoX__|18.63%|12.12%
1.2900|~33OO|__Xo___________oXoXoXoXoXo___|19.57%|10.83%
1.2750|~345O|__X____________oXoXoXoXoX____|20.5%|9.55%
1.2600|~36OO|__X____________oXo_oXo_o_____|21.44%|8.26%
1.2450|~375O|__X____________o___o_________|22.37%|6.97%
1.2300|~39OO|X_X__________________________|23.31%|5.68%
1.2150|~4O5O|XoX__________________________|24.24%|4.39%
1.2000|~42OO|XoX__________________________|25.18%|3.1%
1.1850|~435O|Xo___________________________|26.11%|1.81%
1.1700|~45OO|_____________________________|27.05%|0.52%
1.1550|~465O|________________________
EUR/USD's sharp fall from 1.5143 extends further to as low as 1.4828 today and at this point, intraday bias is cautiously on the downside as long as 1.4941 minor resistance holds and further decline should be seen to 1.4801 support first. Break there will confirm that whole rise from 1.4626 has completed and will turn short term outlook bearish for deeper decline to 1.4626 support next. On the upside, above 1.4941 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.5143 is sharp, there is no clear confirmation of medium term reversal yet. Nevertheless, a break of 1.4626 support will be an important indicate that whole medium term rise from 1.2456 has completed and deeper decline should then be seen to 1.3747 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 1.5143 resistance will indicate that some more rally should be seen before EUR/USD tops.[actionforex]
"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 250X3 or(6.06%) CLOSE
Data 1.5997 - 0.8747 ~ 91 Month ~ 2794 Day
Database 2000 records 1.49869 (Last Close)
2002-04-04 00~00
2009-11-27 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"
1.6000|~25O||____________________________________|-0.02%|82.92%
1.5750|~5OO||__________________x_________________|1.54%|80.06%
1.5500|~75O||__________________x_o_______________|3.11%|77.2%
1.5250|~1OOO|__________________x_o_______________|4.67%|74.35%
1.5000|~125O|__________________x_o_____________x_|6.23%|71.49%
1.4750|~15OO|__________________x_o_x___________x_|7.8%|68.63%
1.4500|~175O|__________________x_o_x_o_________x_|9.36%|65.77%
1.4250|~2OOO|__________________x_o_x_o_x_______x_|10.92%|62.91%
1.4000|~225O|__________________x_o_x_o_x_o_____x_|12.48%|60.05%
1.3750|~25OO|__________________x_o___o_x_o_____x_|14.05%|57.2%
1.3500|~275O|__________x_______x_____o_x_o_x___x_|15.61%|54.34%
1.3250|~3OOO|__________x_o_____x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_|17.17%|51.48%
1.3000|~325O|__________x_o_____x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_|18.73%|48.62%
1.2750|~35OO|______x___x_o_____x_____o_x_o_x_o___|20.3%|45.76%
1.2500|~375O|______x_o_x_o_x___x_____o_x_o_______|21.86%|42.91%
1.2250|~4OOO|______x_o_x_o_x_o_x_____o___________|23.42%|40.05%
1.2000|~425O|______x_o_x_o_x_o_x_________________|24.99%|37.19%
1.1750|~45OO|__x___x_o___o___o_x_________________|26.55%|34.33%
1.1500|~475O|__x_o_x_________o___________________|28.11%|31.47%
1.1250|~5OOO|__x_o_x_____________________________|29.67%|28.62%
1.1000|~525O|__x_o_x_____________________________|31.24%|25.76%
1.0750|~55OO|__x_o_______________________________|32.8%|22.9%
1.0500|~575O|__x_________________________________|34.36%|20.04%
1.0250|~6OOO|__x_________________________________|35.93%|17.18%
1.0000|~625O|__x_________________________________|37.49%|14.32%
0.9750|~65OO|__x_________________________________|39.05%|11.47%
0.9500|~675O|__x_________________________________|40.61%|8.61%
0.9250|~7OOO|__x_________________________________|42.18%|5.75%
0.9000|~725O|o_x_________________________________|43.74%|2.89%
0.8750|~75OO|o___________________________________|45.3%|0.03%
0.8500|~775O|o________________________________
In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.5143 is sharp, there is no clear confirmation of medium term reversal yet. Nevertheless, a break of 1.4626 support will be an important indicate that whole medium term rise from 1.2456 has completed and deeper decline should then be seen to 1.3747 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 1.5143 resistance will indicate that some more rally should be seen before EUR/USD tops.[actionforex]
"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 250X3 or(6.06%) CLOSE
Data 1.5997 - 0.8747 ~ 91 Month ~ 2794 Day
Database 2000 records 1.49869 (Last Close)
2002-04-04 00~00
2009-11-27 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"
1.6000|~25O||____________________________________|-0.02%|82.92%
1.5750|~5OO||__________________x_________________|1.54%|80.06%
1.5500|~75O||__________________x_o_______________|3.11%|77.2%
1.5250|~1OOO|__________________x_o_______________|4.67%|74.35%
1.5000|~125O|__________________x_o_____________x_|6.23%|71.49%
1.4750|~15OO|__________________x_o_x___________x_|7.8%|68.63%
1.4500|~175O|__________________x_o_x_o_________x_|9.36%|65.77%
1.4250|~2OOO|__________________x_o_x_o_x_______x_|10.92%|62.91%
1.4000|~225O|__________________x_o_x_o_x_o_____x_|12.48%|60.05%
1.3750|~25OO|__________________x_o___o_x_o_____x_|14.05%|57.2%
1.3500|~275O|__________x_______x_____o_x_o_x___x_|15.61%|54.34%
1.3250|~3OOO|__________x_o_____x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_|17.17%|51.48%
1.3000|~325O|__________x_o_____x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_|18.73%|48.62%
1.2750|~35OO|______x___x_o_____x_____o_x_o_x_o___|20.3%|45.76%
1.2500|~375O|______x_o_x_o_x___x_____o_x_o_______|21.86%|42.91%
1.2250|~4OOO|______x_o_x_o_x_o_x_____o___________|23.42%|40.05%
1.2000|~425O|______x_o_x_o_x_o_x_________________|24.99%|37.19%
1.1750|~45OO|__x___x_o___o___o_x_________________|26.55%|34.33%
1.1500|~475O|__x_o_x_________o___________________|28.11%|31.47%
1.1250|~5OOO|__x_o_x_____________________________|29.67%|28.62%
1.1000|~525O|__x_o_x_____________________________|31.24%|25.76%
1.0750|~55OO|__x_o_______________________________|32.8%|22.9%
1.0500|~575O|__x_________________________________|34.36%|20.04%
1.0250|~6OOO|__x_________________________________|35.93%|17.18%
1.0000|~625O|__x_________________________________|37.49%|14.32%
0.9750|~65OO|__x_________________________________|39.05%|11.47%
0.9500|~675O|__x_________________________________|40.61%|8.61%
0.9250|~7OOO|__x_________________________________|42.18%|5.75%
0.9000|~725O|o_x_________________________________|43.74%|2.89%
0.8750|~75OO|o___________________________________|45.3%|0.03%
0.8500|~775O|o________________________________
The pause in Euro rally triggered by Dubai World debts payment delay so far expected to be temporary as after hit bottom at 1.4827, Euro recovered quickly, closed much higher at 1.4985 on Friday and the trendline support still did a good job prevented further bearish attack thus technically keep the bullish scenario intact, especially if price able to move consistently above 1.5062 today, which is technically potential to be tested after rebound from 1.4827.
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook
EUR/USD dropped sharply to as low as 1.3585 last week and the strong break of 1.3737 cluster support further confirm our view that three wave consolidation from 1.2329 has completed at 1.5143 already. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 61.8% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.3404 first. Break will target 161.8% projection of 1.5143 to 1.4217 from 1.4578 at 1.3076 next. On the upside, above 1.3744 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside should be limited below 1.4025 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, three wave rise from 1.2329 is treated as consolidation to fall from 1.6039 only and should have completed at 1.5143 already. Fall from 1.5143 is tentatively treated as resumption of the whole down trend form 1.6039 and should target a new low below 1.2329. Break of 1.4217 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.[Written by ActionForex.com]
"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 134X4 or(3.83%) CLOSE
Data 1.5997 - 1.1967 ~ 47 Month ~ 1425 Day
Database 1017 records 1.3628 (Last Close)
2006-03-16 00~00
2010-02-08 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"
1.6080|~134||______________________________________|-0.52%|34.37%
1.5946|~268||______x_______________________________|0.32%|33.25%
1.5812|~4O2||______x_o_x___________________________|1.16%|32.13%
1.5678|~536||______x_o_x_o_________________________|1.99%|31.01%
1.5544|~67O||______x_o_x_o_________________________|2.83%|29.89%
1.5410|~8O4||______x_o_x_o_________________________|3.67%|28.77%
1.5276|~938||______x_o___o_________________________|4.51%|27.65%
1.5142|~1O72|______x_____o_________________________|5.34%|26.53%
1.5008|~12O6|______x_____o_____________________x___|6.18%|25.41%
1.4874|~134O|______x_____o_____________________x_o_|7.02%|24.29%
1.4740|~1474|__x___x_____o_x___________________x_o_|7.86%|23.17%
1.4606|~16O8|__x_o_x_____o_x_o_________________x_o_|8.7%|22.05%
1.4472|~1742|__x_o_x_____o_x_o_________________x_o_|9.53%|20.93%
1.4338|~1876|__x_o_x_____o_x_o_____x___________x_o_|10.37%|19.81%
1.4204|~2O1O|__x_o_______o_x_o_____x_o_____x___x_o_|11.21%|18.69%
1.4070|~2144|__x_________o_x_o_____x_o_____x_o_x_o_|12.05%|17.57%
1.3936|~2278|__x_________o___o_____x_o_____x_o_x_o_|12.88%|16.45%
1.3802|~2412|__x_____________o_____x_o_____x_o_x_o_|13.72%|15.33%
1.3668|~2546|__x_____________o_____x_o_____x_o___o_|14.56%|14.21%
1.3534|~268O|__x_____________o_____x_o_x___x_____o_|15.4%|13.09%
1.3400|~2814|__x_____________o_____x_o_x_o_x_______|16.23%|11.97%
1.3266|~2948|__x_____________o_____x_o_x_o_x_______|17.07%|10.85%
1.3132|~3O82|__x_____________o_____x_o_x_o_x_______|17.91%|9.74%
1.2998|~3216|__x_____________o_____x_o_x_o_x_______|18.75%|8.62%
1.2864|~335O|__x_____________o_x___x_o_x_o_________|19.58%|7.5%
1.2730|~3484|__x_____________o_x_o_x_o_x___________|20.42%|6.38%
1.2596|~3618|__x_____________o_x_o_x_o_x___________|21.26%|5.26%
1.2462|~3752|__x_____________o_x_o_x_o_____________|22.1%|4.14%
1.2328|~3886|__x_____________o___o_________________|22.94%|3.02%
1.2194|~4O2O|o_x___________________________________|23.77%|1.9%
1.2060|~4154|o_x___________________________________|24.61%|0.78%
1.1926|~4288|o________________________________
EUR/USD dropped sharply to as low as 1.3585 last week and the strong break of 1.3737 cluster support further confirm our view that three wave consolidation from 1.2329 has completed at 1.5143 already. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 61.8% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.3404 first. Break will target 161.8% projection of 1.5143 to 1.4217 from 1.4578 at 1.3076 next. On the upside, above 1.3744 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside should be limited below 1.4025 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, three wave rise from 1.2329 is treated as consolidation to fall from 1.6039 only and should have completed at 1.5143 already. Fall from 1.5143 is tentatively treated as resumption of the whole down trend form 1.6039 and should target a new low below 1.2329. Break of 1.4217 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.[Written by ActionForex.com]
"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 134X4 or(3.83%) CLOSE
Data 1.5997 - 1.1967 ~ 47 Month ~ 1425 Day
Database 1017 records 1.3628 (Last Close)
2006-03-16 00~00
2010-02-08 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"
1.6080|~134||______________________________________|-0.52%|34.37%
1.5946|~268||______x_______________________________|0.32%|33.25%
1.5812|~4O2||______x_o_x___________________________|1.16%|32.13%
1.5678|~536||______x_o_x_o_________________________|1.99%|31.01%
1.5544|~67O||______x_o_x_o_________________________|2.83%|29.89%
1.5410|~8O4||______x_o_x_o_________________________|3.67%|28.77%
1.5276|~938||______x_o___o_________________________|4.51%|27.65%
1.5142|~1O72|______x_____o_________________________|5.34%|26.53%
1.5008|~12O6|______x_____o_____________________x___|6.18%|25.41%
1.4874|~134O|______x_____o_____________________x_o_|7.02%|24.29%
1.4740|~1474|__x___x_____o_x___________________x_o_|7.86%|23.17%
1.4606|~16O8|__x_o_x_____o_x_o_________________x_o_|8.7%|22.05%
1.4472|~1742|__x_o_x_____o_x_o_________________x_o_|9.53%|20.93%
1.4338|~1876|__x_o_x_____o_x_o_____x___________x_o_|10.37%|19.81%
1.4204|~2O1O|__x_o_______o_x_o_____x_o_____x___x_o_|11.21%|18.69%
1.4070|~2144|__x_________o_x_o_____x_o_____x_o_x_o_|12.05%|17.57%
1.3936|~2278|__x_________o___o_____x_o_____x_o_x_o_|12.88%|16.45%
1.3802|~2412|__x_____________o_____x_o_____x_o_x_o_|13.72%|15.33%
1.3668|~2546|__x_____________o_____x_o_____x_o___o_|14.56%|14.21%
1.3534|~268O|__x_____________o_____x_o_x___x_____o_|15.4%|13.09%
1.3400|~2814|__x_____________o_____x_o_x_o_x_______|16.23%|11.97%
1.3266|~2948|__x_____________o_____x_o_x_o_x_______|17.07%|10.85%
1.3132|~3O82|__x_____________o_____x_o_x_o_x_______|17.91%|9.74%
1.2998|~3216|__x_____________o_____x_o_x_o_x_______|18.75%|8.62%
1.2864|~335O|__x_____________o_x___x_o_x_o_________|19.58%|7.5%
1.2730|~3484|__x_____________o_x_o_x_o_x___________|20.42%|6.38%
1.2596|~3618|__x_____________o_x_o_x_o_x___________|21.26%|5.26%
1.2462|~3752|__x_____________o_x_o_x_o_____________|22.1%|4.14%
1.2328|~3886|__x_____________o___o_________________|22.94%|3.02%
1.2194|~4O2O|o_x___________________________________|23.77%|1.9%
1.2060|~4154|o_x___________________________________|24.61%|0.78%
1.1926|~4288|o________________________________
EUR/USD is in a downtrend, after peaking at 1.5146 (Nov.25,2009). Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.4793 and 1.4169.
Yesterday's break below 1.3550 cleared the road for another test at 1.3342-60 support area. The failure of that test shows, that the pair is still in the consolidation pattern below 1.3696. We continue to expect a break below 1.3442, which will mark the end of the prolonged corrective phase and will target directly 1.3231, en route to 1.3061.
"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 2250X3 or(5.26%) HI/LO
Data 1.5997 - 0.9663 ~ 92 Month ~ 2787 Day
Database 2000 records 1.3567 (Last Close)
2002-07-15 00~00
2010-03-02 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"
1.5975|~225||________________x_____o_x_______________________|0.14%|65.32%
1.5750|~45O||____________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____________________|1.54%|62.99%
1.5525|~675||____________x_o_x_o_x_____o_____________________|2.95%|60.66%
1.5300|~9OO||____________x_____o_______o_____________________|4.36%|58.34%
1.5075|~1125|____________x_____________o_________________x___|5.76%|56.01%
1.4850|~135O|____________x_____________o_x_______________x_o_|7.17%|53.68%
1.4625|~1575|____________x_____________o_x_o_____x_______x_o_|8.58%|51.35%
1.4400|~18OO|____________x_____________o_x_o_____x_o_____x_o_|9.98%|49.02%
1.4175|~2O25|____________x_____________o_x_o_____x_o_____x_o_|11.39%|46.69%
1.3950|~225O|____________x_____________o___o_____x_o_____x_o_|12.8%|44.37%
1.3725|~2475|____________x_________________o_____x_o_x___x_o_|14.2%|42.04%
1.3500|~27OO|________x___x_________________o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_|15.61%|39.71%
1.3275|~2925|________x_o_x_________________o_x___x_o_x_o_x___|17.02%|37.38%
1.3050|~315O|________x_o_x_________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____|18.42%|35.05%
1.2825|~3375|____x___x_o_x_________________o_x_o_x_o_x_______|19.83%|32.72%
1.2600|~36OO|____x_o_x_o_x_________________o_x_o___o_________|21.24%|30.39%
1.2375|~3825|____x_o_x_o_x_________________o_________________|22.64%|28.07%
1.2150|~4O5O|____x_o_x_o_x___________________________________|24.05%|25.74%
1.1925|~4275|x___x_o___o_x___________________________________|25.45%|23.41%
1.1700|~45OO|x_o_x_____o_____________________________________|26.86%|21.08%
1.1475|~4725|x_o_x___________________________________________|28.27%|18.75%
1.1250|~495O|x_o_x___________________________________________|29.67%|16.42%
1.1025|~5175|x_o_x___________________________________________|31.08%|14.1%
1.0800|~54OO|x_o_____________________________________________|32.49%|11.77%
1.0575|~5625|x_______________________________________________|33.89%|9.44%
1.0350|~585O|x_______________________________________________|35.3%|7.11%
1.0125|~6O75|x_______________________________________________|36.71%|4.78%
0.9900|~63OO|x_______________________________________________|38.11%|2.45%
0.9675|~6525|________________________________________________|39.52%|0.12%
0.9450|~675O|________________________________________________
Yesterday's break below 1.3550 cleared the road for another test at 1.3342-60 support area. The failure of that test shows, that the pair is still in the consolidation pattern below 1.3696. We continue to expect a break below 1.3442, which will mark the end of the prolonged corrective phase and will target directly 1.3231, en route to 1.3061.
"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 2250X3 or(5.26%) HI/LO
Data 1.5997 - 0.9663 ~ 92 Month ~ 2787 Day
Database 2000 records 1.3567 (Last Close)
2002-07-15 00~00
2010-03-02 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"
1.5975|~225||________________x_____o_x_______________________|0.14%|65.32%
1.5750|~45O||____________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____________________|1.54%|62.99%
1.5525|~675||____________x_o_x_o_x_____o_____________________|2.95%|60.66%
1.5300|~9OO||____________x_____o_______o_____________________|4.36%|58.34%
1.5075|~1125|____________x_____________o_________________x___|5.76%|56.01%
1.4850|~135O|____________x_____________o_x_______________x_o_|7.17%|53.68%
1.4625|~1575|____________x_____________o_x_o_____x_______x_o_|8.58%|51.35%
1.4400|~18OO|____________x_____________o_x_o_____x_o_____x_o_|9.98%|49.02%
1.4175|~2O25|____________x_____________o_x_o_____x_o_____x_o_|11.39%|46.69%
1.3950|~225O|____________x_____________o___o_____x_o_____x_o_|12.8%|44.37%
1.3725|~2475|____________x_________________o_____x_o_x___x_o_|14.2%|42.04%
1.3500|~27OO|________x___x_________________o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_|15.61%|39.71%
1.3275|~2925|________x_o_x_________________o_x___x_o_x_o_x___|17.02%|37.38%
1.3050|~315O|________x_o_x_________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____|18.42%|35.05%
1.2825|~3375|____x___x_o_x_________________o_x_o_x_o_x_______|19.83%|32.72%
1.2600|~36OO|____x_o_x_o_x_________________o_x_o___o_________|21.24%|30.39%
1.2375|~3825|____x_o_x_o_x_________________o_________________|22.64%|28.07%
1.2150|~4O5O|____x_o_x_o_x___________________________________|24.05%|25.74%
1.1925|~4275|x___x_o___o_x___________________________________|25.45%|23.41%
1.1700|~45OO|x_o_x_____o_____________________________________|26.86%|21.08%
1.1475|~4725|x_o_x___________________________________________|28.27%|18.75%
1.1250|~495O|x_o_x___________________________________________|29.67%|16.42%
1.1025|~5175|x_o_x___________________________________________|31.08%|14.1%
1.0800|~54OO|x_o_____________________________________________|32.49%|11.77%
1.0575|~5625|x_______________________________________________|33.89%|9.44%
1.0350|~585O|x_______________________________________________|35.3%|7.11%
1.0125|~6O75|x_______________________________________________|36.71%|4.78%
0.9900|~63OO|x_______________________________________________|38.11%|2.45%
0.9675|~6525|________________________________________________|39.52%|0.12%
0.9450|~675O|________________________________________________
EUR/USD's corrective rise from 1.3266 might still be in progress but we'd continue to anticipate strong resistance at 1.3570 to conclude the correction and bring fall resumption. Below 1.3384 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 1.3266 first. However, note that decisive break of 1.3570 will indicate that the five wave sequence from 1.5143 is completed and stronger rebound should then be seen to 1.3817 resistance and above.
"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 200X3 or(4.68%) HI/LO
Data 1.6038 - 0.9607 ~ 92 Month ~ 2796 Day
Database 2000 records 1.35043 (Last Close)
2002-08-05 00~00
2010-04-01 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"
1.6200|~2OO||______________________________________________|-1.01%|68.63%
1.6000|~4OO||__________________x___x_______________________|0.24%|66.55%
1.5800|~6OO||__________________x_o_x_o_____________________|1.48%|64.46%
1.5600|~8OO||__________________x_o_x_o_____________________|2.73%|62.38%
1.5400|~1OOO|__________________x_o___o_____________________|3.98%|60.3%
1.5200|~12OO|__________________x_____o_____________________|5.23%|58.22%
1.5000|~14OO|__________________x_____o_________________x___|6.47%|56.14%
1.4800|~16OO|__________________x_____o_x_______________x_o_|7.72%|54.05%
1.4600|~18OO|__________________x_____o_x_o_____x_______x_o_|8.97%|51.97%
1.4400|~2OOO|__________________x_____o_x_o_____x_o_____x_o_|10.21%|49.89%
1.4200|~22OO|__________________x_____o_x_o_____x_o_____x_o_|11.46%|47.81%
1.4000|~24OO|__________________x_____o___o_____x_o_____x_o_|12.71%|45.73%
1.3800|~26OO|__________________x_________o_____x_o_____x_o_|13.95%|43.65%
1.3600|~28OO|__________x_______x_________o_____x_o_x___x_o_|15.2%|41.56%
1.3400|~3OOO|__________x_o_x___x_________o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_|16.45%|39.48%
1.3200|~32OO|__________x_o_x_o_x_________o_x___x_o_x_o_x___|17.7%|37.4%
1.3000|~34OO|__________x_o_x_o_x_________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____|18.94%|35.32%
1.2800|~36OO|______x___x_o___o_x_________o_x_o_x_o_x_______|20.19%|33.24%
1.2600|~38OO|______x_o_x_____o_x_________o_x_o_x_o_________|21.44%|31.15%
1.2400|~4OOO|______x_o_x_____o_x_________o___o_____________|22.68%|29.07%
1.2200|~42OO|______x_o_x_____o_x___________________________|23.93%|26.99%
1.2000|~44OO|______x_o_x_____o_x___________________________|25.18%|24.91%
1.1800|~46OO|__x___x_o_______o_____________________________|26.42%|22.83%
1.1600|~48OO|__x_o_x_______________________________________|27.67%|20.75%
1.1400|~5OOO|__x_o_x_______________________________________|28.92%|18.66%
1.1200|~52OO|__x_o_x_______________________________________|30.17%|16.58%
1.1000|~54OO|__x_o_x_______________________________________|31.41%|14.5%
1.0800|~56OO|__x_o_________________________________________|32.66%|12.42%
1.0600|~58OO|__x___________________________________________|33.91%|10.34%
1.0400|~6OOO|__x___________________________________________|35.15%|8.25%
1.0200|~62OO|__x___________________________________________|36.4%|6.17%
1.0000|~64OO|o_x___________________________________________|37.65%|4.09%
0.9800|~66OO|o_x___________________________________________|38.9%|2.01%
0.9600|~68OO|______________________________________________|40.14%|-0.07%
Column|||||||2_1_5_1_5_9_4_3_8_2_3_3_1_4_1_4_4_1_1_5_3_1_8_|
Count||||||||__1___0________
"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 200X3 or(4.68%) HI/LO
Data 1.6038 - 0.9607 ~ 92 Month ~ 2796 Day
Database 2000 records 1.35043 (Last Close)
2002-08-05 00~00
2010-04-01 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"
1.6200|~2OO||______________________________________________|-1.01%|68.63%
1.6000|~4OO||__________________x___x_______________________|0.24%|66.55%
1.5800|~6OO||__________________x_o_x_o_____________________|1.48%|64.46%
1.5600|~8OO||__________________x_o_x_o_____________________|2.73%|62.38%
1.5400|~1OOO|__________________x_o___o_____________________|3.98%|60.3%
1.5200|~12OO|__________________x_____o_____________________|5.23%|58.22%
1.5000|~14OO|__________________x_____o_________________x___|6.47%|56.14%
1.4800|~16OO|__________________x_____o_x_______________x_o_|7.72%|54.05%
1.4600|~18OO|__________________x_____o_x_o_____x_______x_o_|8.97%|51.97%
1.4400|~2OOO|__________________x_____o_x_o_____x_o_____x_o_|10.21%|49.89%
1.4200|~22OO|__________________x_____o_x_o_____x_o_____x_o_|11.46%|47.81%
1.4000|~24OO|__________________x_____o___o_____x_o_____x_o_|12.71%|45.73%
1.3800|~26OO|__________________x_________o_____x_o_____x_o_|13.95%|43.65%
1.3600|~28OO|__________x_______x_________o_____x_o_x___x_o_|15.2%|41.56%
1.3400|~3OOO|__________x_o_x___x_________o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_|16.45%|39.48%
1.3200|~32OO|__________x_o_x_o_x_________o_x___x_o_x_o_x___|17.7%|37.4%
1.3000|~34OO|__________x_o_x_o_x_________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____|18.94%|35.32%
1.2800|~36OO|______x___x_o___o_x_________o_x_o_x_o_x_______|20.19%|33.24%
1.2600|~38OO|______x_o_x_____o_x_________o_x_o_x_o_________|21.44%|31.15%
1.2400|~4OOO|______x_o_x_____o_x_________o___o_____________|22.68%|29.07%
1.2200|~42OO|______x_o_x_____o_x___________________________|23.93%|26.99%
1.2000|~44OO|______x_o_x_____o_x___________________________|25.18%|24.91%
1.1800|~46OO|__x___x_o_______o_____________________________|26.42%|22.83%
1.1600|~48OO|__x_o_x_______________________________________|27.67%|20.75%
1.1400|~5OOO|__x_o_x_______________________________________|28.92%|18.66%
1.1200|~52OO|__x_o_x_______________________________________|30.17%|16.58%
1.1000|~54OO|__x_o_x_______________________________________|31.41%|14.5%
1.0800|~56OO|__x_o_________________________________________|32.66%|12.42%
1.0600|~58OO|__x___________________________________________|33.91%|10.34%
1.0400|~6OOO|__x___________________________________________|35.15%|8.25%
1.0200|~62OO|__x___________________________________________|36.4%|6.17%
1.0000|~64OO|o_x___________________________________________|37.65%|4.09%
0.9800|~66OO|o_x___________________________________________|38.9%|2.01%
0.9600|~68OO|______________________________________________|40.14%|-0.07%
Column|||||||2_1_5_1_5_9_4_3_8_2_3_3_1_4_1_4_4_1_1_5_3_1_8_|
Count||||||||__1___0________
What's In Store for the EUR and the USD Next Week?
At the end of a volatile trading week which has seen a turmoil in Greek bonds and has culminated with a formal request from Greece for financial aid from the EU and IMF, I explore the important economic events for the week ahead and ponder what they may bring for the EUR and the USD, I examine this morning's EUR strengthening and analyze the latest trend developments with the EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP currency pairs, I note the bullish breakout of the USD vs. JPY, I examine the weakness of the GBP and CAD after series of disappointing economic reports from the U.K. and Canada.
This is my forecast!
"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 200X3 or(4.68%) HI/LO
Data 1.6038 - 0.9607 ~ 92 Month ~ 2796 Day
Database 2000 records 1.33811 (Last Close)
2002-08-27 00~00
2010-04-23 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"
BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart
At the end of a volatile trading week which has seen a turmoil in Greek bonds and has culminated with a formal request from Greece for financial aid from the EU and IMF, I explore the important economic events for the week ahead and ponder what they may bring for the EUR and the USD, I examine this morning's EUR strengthening and analyze the latest trend developments with the EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP currency pairs, I note the bullish breakout of the USD vs. JPY, I examine the weakness of the GBP and CAD after series of disappointing economic reports from the U.K. and Canada.
This is my forecast!
"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 200X3 or(4.68%) HI/LO
Data 1.6038 - 0.9607 ~ 92 Month ~ 2796 Day
Database 2000 records 1.33811 (Last Close)
2002-08-27 00~00
2010-04-23 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"
BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart
Trade Idea:EUR/USD - Buy-stop at 1.2650 Target: 1.2800 ; Stop: 1.2575
======================================================================
Price action on EUR/USD, a chart of which is shown, has just broken down swiftly below the key 1.2500 support level, establishing a new 18-month low and lending a significant additional bearish bias to this strongly downtrending currency pair.
A continuation of the steep overall downtrend has now been confirmed, with price currently targeting a key downside support target in the 1.2300 price region.
Any substantial breakdown below 1.2300 could potentially begin to target the technically- and psychologically-important 1.2000 level, which is also around a 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the most recent bearish run.
The broken 1.2500 level should now serve as tentative upside resistance within the context of the strong current downtrend.
"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 200X3 or(4.68%) HI/LO
Data 1.6038 - 0.9607 ~ 92 Month ~ 2796 Day
Database 2000 records 1.23566 (Last Close)
2002-09-17 00~00
2010-05-14 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"
1.6200|~2OO||____________________+_______________________|-1.01%|68.63%
1.6000|~4OO||________________x___x_+_____________________|0.24%|66.55%
1.5800|~6OO||________________x_o_x_o_+___________________|1.48%|64.46%
1.5600|~8OO||________________x_o_x_o___+_________________|2.73%|62.38%
1.5400|~1OOO|________________x_o___o_____+_______________|3.98%|60.3%
1.5200|~12OO|________________x_____o_______+_________+___|5.23%|58.22%
1.5000|~14OO|________________x_____o_________+_______x_+_|6.47%|56.14%
1.4800|~16OO|________________x_____o_x_________+_____x_o_|7.72%|54.05%
1.4600|~18OO|________________x_____o_x_o_____x___+___x_o_|8.97%|51.97%
1.4400|~2OOO|________________x_____o_x_o_____x_o___+_x_o_|10.21%|49.89%
1.4200|~22OO|________________x_____o_x_o_____x_o_____x_o_|11.46%|47.81%
1.4000|~24OO|________________x_____o___o_____x_o_____x_o_|12.71%|45.73%
1.3800|~26OO|________________x_________o_____x_o_____x_o_|13.95%|43.65%
1.3600|~28OO|________x_______x_________o_____x_o_x___x_o_|15.2%|41.56%
1.3400|~3OOO|________x_o_x___x_________o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_|16.45%|39.48%
1.3200|~32OO|________x_o_x_o_x_________o_x___x_o_x_o_x_o_|17.7%|37.4%
1.3000|~34OO|________x_o_x_o_x_________o_x_o_x_o_x_o___o_|18.94%|35.32%
1.2800|~36OO|____x___x_o___o_x_______+_o_x_o_x_o_x_____o_|20.19%|33.24%
1.2600|~38OO|____x_o_x_____o_x_____+___o_x_o_x_o_______o_|21.44%|31.15%
1.2400|~4OOO|====x=o=x=====o=x===+=====o===o=+=========o=|22.68%|29.07%
1.2200|~42OO|____x_o_x_____o_x_+___________+___________+_|23.93%|26.99%
1.2000|~44OO|____x_o_x_____o_x___________________________|25.18%|24.91%
1.1800|~46OO|x___x_o_______o_____________________________|26.42%|22.83%
1.1600|~48OO|x_o_x_______+_______________________________|27.67%|20.75%
1.1400|~5OOO|x_o_x_____+_________________________________|28.92%|18.66%
1.1200|~52OO|x_o_x___+___________________________________|30.17%|16.58%
1.1000|~54OO|x_o_x_+_____________________________________|31.41%|14.5%
1.0800|~56OO|x_o_+_______________________________________|32.66%|12.42%
1.0600|~58OO|x_+_________________________________________|33.91%|10.34%
1.0400|~6OOO|x___________________________________________|35.15%|8.25%
1.0200|~62OO|x___________________________________________|36.4%|6.17%
1.0000|~64OO|x___________________________________________|37.65%|4.09%
0.9800|~66OO|x___________________________________________|38.9%|2.01%
0.9600|~68OO|____________________________________________|40.14%|-0.07%
Column|||||||1_5_1_5_9_4_3_8_2_3_3_1_4_1_4_4_1_1_5_3_1_1_|
Count||||||||1___O________
======================================================================
Price action on EUR/USD, a chart of which is shown, has just broken down swiftly below the key 1.2500 support level, establishing a new 18-month low and lending a significant additional bearish bias to this strongly downtrending currency pair.
A continuation of the steep overall downtrend has now been confirmed, with price currently targeting a key downside support target in the 1.2300 price region.
Any substantial breakdown below 1.2300 could potentially begin to target the technically- and psychologically-important 1.2000 level, which is also around a 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the most recent bearish run.
The broken 1.2500 level should now serve as tentative upside resistance within the context of the strong current downtrend.
"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 200X3 or(4.68%) HI/LO
Data 1.6038 - 0.9607 ~ 92 Month ~ 2796 Day
Database 2000 records 1.23566 (Last Close)
2002-09-17 00~00
2010-05-14 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"
1.6200|~2OO||____________________+_______________________|-1.01%|68.63%
1.6000|~4OO||________________x___x_+_____________________|0.24%|66.55%
1.5800|~6OO||________________x_o_x_o_+___________________|1.48%|64.46%
1.5600|~8OO||________________x_o_x_o___+_________________|2.73%|62.38%
1.5400|~1OOO|________________x_o___o_____+_______________|3.98%|60.3%
1.5200|~12OO|________________x_____o_______+_________+___|5.23%|58.22%
1.5000|~14OO|________________x_____o_________+_______x_+_|6.47%|56.14%
1.4800|~16OO|________________x_____o_x_________+_____x_o_|7.72%|54.05%
1.4600|~18OO|________________x_____o_x_o_____x___+___x_o_|8.97%|51.97%
1.4400|~2OOO|________________x_____o_x_o_____x_o___+_x_o_|10.21%|49.89%
1.4200|~22OO|________________x_____o_x_o_____x_o_____x_o_|11.46%|47.81%
1.4000|~24OO|________________x_____o___o_____x_o_____x_o_|12.71%|45.73%
1.3800|~26OO|________________x_________o_____x_o_____x_o_|13.95%|43.65%
1.3600|~28OO|________x_______x_________o_____x_o_x___x_o_|15.2%|41.56%
1.3400|~3OOO|________x_o_x___x_________o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_|16.45%|39.48%
1.3200|~32OO|________x_o_x_o_x_________o_x___x_o_x_o_x_o_|17.7%|37.4%
1.3000|~34OO|________x_o_x_o_x_________o_x_o_x_o_x_o___o_|18.94%|35.32%
1.2800|~36OO|____x___x_o___o_x_______+_o_x_o_x_o_x_____o_|20.19%|33.24%
1.2600|~38OO|____x_o_x_____o_x_____+___o_x_o_x_o_______o_|21.44%|31.15%
1.2400|~4OOO|====x=o=x=====o=x===+=====o===o=+=========o=|22.68%|29.07%
1.2200|~42OO|____x_o_x_____o_x_+___________+___________+_|23.93%|26.99%
1.2000|~44OO|____x_o_x_____o_x___________________________|25.18%|24.91%
1.1800|~46OO|x___x_o_______o_____________________________|26.42%|22.83%
1.1600|~48OO|x_o_x_______+_______________________________|27.67%|20.75%
1.1400|~5OOO|x_o_x_____+_________________________________|28.92%|18.66%
1.1200|~52OO|x_o_x___+___________________________________|30.17%|16.58%
1.1000|~54OO|x_o_x_+_____________________________________|31.41%|14.5%
1.0800|~56OO|x_o_+_______________________________________|32.66%|12.42%
1.0600|~58OO|x_+_________________________________________|33.91%|10.34%
1.0400|~6OOO|x___________________________________________|35.15%|8.25%
1.0200|~62OO|x___________________________________________|36.4%|6.17%
1.0000|~64OO|x___________________________________________|37.65%|4.09%
0.9800|~66OO|x___________________________________________|38.9%|2.01%
0.9600|~68OO|____________________________________________|40.14%|-0.07%
Column|||||||1_5_1_5_9_4_3_8_2_3_3_1_4_1_4_4_1_1_5_3_1_1_|
Count||||||||1___O________
First.
Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy Limit at 1.2100; Target: 1.2250; Stop: 1.2025.
Then.
Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell Limit at 1.2250; Target: 1.1650 ; Stop: 1.2325.
The EUR/USD finally broke below the triangle, but did so after two false breakouts. The pair
has moved higher after putting in lows below 1.1900. The week was closed out with the EUR/USD
at 1.2110. The resistance comes in at 1.2150-1.2200. This is the former support level which
created the triangle (see chart at bottom). If that resistance band hold, expect continued
selling pressure. Support comes in at 1.2050, 1.1950 and 1.1875. Penetration of the recent
low at 1.1875 has a target of 1.1650.
"P&F EURUSD10080 Box Size 250X3 or(6.18%) HI/LO
Data 1.6038 - 0.8225 ~ 152 Month ~ 4627 Day
Database 662 records 1.21112 (Last Close)
1997-10-05 00~00
2010-06-06 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"
1.6000|~25O||______________________x_+_________________|0.24%|94.53%
1.5750|~5OO||______________________x_o_+_______________|1.8%|91.49%
1.5500|~75O||______________________x_o___+_____________|3.35%|88.45%
1.5250|~1OOO|______________________x_o_____+_______+___|4.91%|85.41%
1.5000|~125O|______________________x_o_______+_____x_+_|6.47%|82.37%
1.4750|~15OO|______________________x_o_x_______+___x_o_|8.03%|79.33%
1.4500|~175O|______________________x_o_x_o_____x_+_x_o_|9.59%|76.29%
1.4250|~2OOO|______________________x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_|11.15%|73.25%
1.4000|~225O|______________________x_o___o_____x_o_x_o_|12.71%|70.21%
1.3750|~25OO|______________________x_____o_____x_o_x_o_|14.27%|67.17%
1.3500|~275O|__________________x___x_____o_____x_o_x_o_|15.82%|64.13%
1.3250|~3OOO|__________________x_o_x_____o_x___x_o_x_o_|17.38%|61.09%
1.3000|~325O|__________________x_o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|18.94%|58.05%
1.2750|~35OO|______________x___x_o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|20.5%|55.02%
1.2500|~375O|______________x_o_x_o_x_____o___o___o___o_|22.06%|51.98%
1.2250|~4OOO|__x___________x_o_x_o_x_______________+_o_|23.62%|48.94%
1.2000|~425O|__x_o_________x_o___o_x_____________+___o_|25.18%|45.9%
1.1750|~45OO|==x=o=====x===x=====o=============+=====+=|26.74%|42.86%
1.1500|~475O|__x_o_____x_o_x_________________+_________|28.3%|39.82%
1.1250|~5OOO|o_x_o_____x_o_x_______________+___________|29.85%|36.78%
1.1000|~525O|o_x_o_____x_o_______________+_____________|31.41%|33.74%
1.0750|~55OO|o___o_____x_______________+_______________|32.97%|30.7%
1.0500|~575O|____o_____x_____________+_________________|34.53%|27.66%
1.0250|~6OOO|____o_____x___________+___________________|36.09%|24.62%
1.0000|~625O|____o_____x_________+_____________________|37.65%|21.58%
0.9750|~65OO|____o_____x_______+_______________________|39.21%|18.54%
0.9500|~675O|____o_x___x_____+_________________________|40.77%|15.5%
0.9250|~7OOO|____o_x_o_x___+___________________________|42.32%|12.46%
0.9000|~725O|____o_x_o_x_+_____________________________|43.88%|9.42%
0.8750|~75OO|____o_x_o_x_______________________________|45.44%|6.38%
0.8500|~775O|____o_x_o_________________________________|47%|3.34%
0.8250|~8OOO|____o_+___________________________________|48.56%|0.3%
0.8000|~825O|____+_____________________________________|50.12%|-2.74%
Column|||||||3_6_1_5_4_1_3_7_3_6_7_1_8_3_9_3_3_8_8_1_1_|
Count||||||||____6_____3___________7________
Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy Limit at 1.2100; Target: 1.2250; Stop: 1.2025.
Then.
Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell Limit at 1.2250; Target: 1.1650 ; Stop: 1.2325.
The EUR/USD finally broke below the triangle, but did so after two false breakouts. The pair
has moved higher after putting in lows below 1.1900. The week was closed out with the EUR/USD
at 1.2110. The resistance comes in at 1.2150-1.2200. This is the former support level which
created the triangle (see chart at bottom). If that resistance band hold, expect continued
selling pressure. Support comes in at 1.2050, 1.1950 and 1.1875. Penetration of the recent
low at 1.1875 has a target of 1.1650.
"P&F EURUSD10080 Box Size 250X3 or(6.18%) HI/LO
Data 1.6038 - 0.8225 ~ 152 Month ~ 4627 Day
Database 662 records 1.21112 (Last Close)
1997-10-05 00~00
2010-06-06 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"
1.6000|~25O||______________________x_+_________________|0.24%|94.53%
1.5750|~5OO||______________________x_o_+_______________|1.8%|91.49%
1.5500|~75O||______________________x_o___+_____________|3.35%|88.45%
1.5250|~1OOO|______________________x_o_____+_______+___|4.91%|85.41%
1.5000|~125O|______________________x_o_______+_____x_+_|6.47%|82.37%
1.4750|~15OO|______________________x_o_x_______+___x_o_|8.03%|79.33%
1.4500|~175O|______________________x_o_x_o_____x_+_x_o_|9.59%|76.29%
1.4250|~2OOO|______________________x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_|11.15%|73.25%
1.4000|~225O|______________________x_o___o_____x_o_x_o_|12.71%|70.21%
1.3750|~25OO|______________________x_____o_____x_o_x_o_|14.27%|67.17%
1.3500|~275O|__________________x___x_____o_____x_o_x_o_|15.82%|64.13%
1.3250|~3OOO|__________________x_o_x_____o_x___x_o_x_o_|17.38%|61.09%
1.3000|~325O|__________________x_o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|18.94%|58.05%
1.2750|~35OO|______________x___x_o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|20.5%|55.02%
1.2500|~375O|______________x_o_x_o_x_____o___o___o___o_|22.06%|51.98%
1.2250|~4OOO|__x___________x_o_x_o_x_______________+_o_|23.62%|48.94%
1.2000|~425O|__x_o_________x_o___o_x_____________+___o_|25.18%|45.9%
1.1750|~45OO|==x=o=====x===x=====o=============+=====+=|26.74%|42.86%
1.1500|~475O|__x_o_____x_o_x_________________+_________|28.3%|39.82%
1.1250|~5OOO|o_x_o_____x_o_x_______________+___________|29.85%|36.78%
1.1000|~525O|o_x_o_____x_o_______________+_____________|31.41%|33.74%
1.0750|~55OO|o___o_____x_______________+_______________|32.97%|30.7%
1.0500|~575O|____o_____x_____________+_________________|34.53%|27.66%
1.0250|~6OOO|____o_____x___________+___________________|36.09%|24.62%
1.0000|~625O|____o_____x_________+_____________________|37.65%|21.58%
0.9750|~65OO|____o_____x_______+_______________________|39.21%|18.54%
0.9500|~675O|____o_x___x_____+_________________________|40.77%|15.5%
0.9250|~7OOO|____o_x_o_x___+___________________________|42.32%|12.46%
0.9000|~725O|____o_x_o_x_+_____________________________|43.88%|9.42%
0.8750|~75OO|____o_x_o_x_______________________________|45.44%|6.38%
0.8500|~775O|____o_x_o_________________________________|47%|3.34%
0.8250|~8OOO|____o_+___________________________________|48.56%|0.3%
0.8000|~825O|____+_____________________________________|50.12%|-2.74%
Column|||||||3_6_1_5_4_1_3_7_3_6_7_1_8_3_9_3_3_8_8_1_1_|
Count||||||||____6_____3___________7________
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