EUR/USD analysis of the week (4h candlesticks)

[MDunleavy]

The EUR penetrated resistance at 1.2500 and the descending trend line. It is too early to call this a reversal, but the primary down trend is weakening. Expect retracement to test the new support level at 1.2500. Failure of the rising trend line would warn of a primary down swing with a target of parity - confirmed if support at 1.1900 is broken. Respect of support would suggest a reversal, but confirmation would only come from a higher trough followed by a new high.

"P&F EURUSD240 Box Size 10X3 or(2.22%) HI/LO
Data 1.5144 - 1.1876 ~ 8 Month ~ 247.17 Day
Database 1050 records 1.29296 (Last Close)
2009-11-11 16~00
2010-07-16 20~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"


BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.

 

[MDunleavy]

The euro is testing the rising trendline; penetration would indicate that the recent rally has
weakened, and reversal below 1.2500 would indicate another test of primary support at 1.1900.
I remain bearish on EUR/USD.

"P&F EURUSD5 Box Size 25X3 or(0.58%) HI/LO
Data 1.3333 - 1.2663 ~ 1 Month ~ 23.49 Day
Database 5000 records 1.27105 (Last Close)
2010-07-28 11~15
2010-08-20 22~55 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.

 

[MDunleavy]

Trade Idea: Eur/Usd- Buy at 1.3750\1.3800; Target: 1.3900\1.3950 ; Stop: 1.3700.
=======================
The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum this week, topped at 1.3790 on Friday after made a clear, strong and convincing breakout above 1.3670 resistance area.
From this point, beside minor resistance around 1.3800, I see no significant resistance until 1.3950, which is the next technical bullish target.
Break above 1.3950 could trigger further bullish scenario.

"P&F EURUSD10080 Box Size 300X3 or(7.42%) HI/LO
Data 1.6038 - 0.8225; ~ 246.43 Month; ~ 7245 Day; ~ 20 Years
Database 1036 records; 1.379 (Last Close)
1990-11-25 00~00
2010-09-26 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

1.62|________________________________________________+_____________|
1.59|________________________________________________x_+___________|
1.56|________________________________________________x_o_+_________|
1.53|________________________________________________x_o___+_______|
1.50|________________________________________________x_o_____x_____|
1.47|____________________+___________________________x_o_x___x_o___|
1.44|________+___________x_+_________________________x_o_x_o_x_o_+_|
1.41|________x_+_________x_o_x_______________________x_o_x_o_x_o___|
1.38|________x_o_x_______x_o_x_o_____________________x_o_x_o_x_o___|
1.35|x_______x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_+_______________x___x_o_x_o_x_o_x_|
1.32|x_o_____x_o_x_o_+___x_o___o___+_____________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_|
1.29|__o_x___x_o___o___+_x_____o_____+_______x___x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_|
1.26|__o_x_o_x_____o_____x_____o_______+_____x_o_x_o_x_o___o___o_x_|
1.23|__o_x_o_x_____o_x___x_____o_x_______+___x_o_x_o_x_________o_x_|
1.20|__o_x_o_x___+_o_x_o_x_____o_x_o_______+_x_o___o_x_________o_+_|
1.17|__o_x_o___+___o_x_o_x_____o_x_o_____x___x_____o___________+___|
1.14|__o_x___+_____o___o_x_____o_x_o_____x_o_x_______________+_____|
1.11|__o_x_+___________o_______o_x_o_____x_o_x_____________+_______|
1.08|__o_+_____________________o_x_o_____x_o_____________+_________|
1.05|__+_______________________o___o_____x_____________+___________|
1.02|______________________________o_____x___________+_____________|
0.99|______________________________o_____x_________+_______________|
0.96|______________________________o_____x_______+_________________|
0.93|______________________________o_x___x_____+___________________|
0.90|______________________________o_x_o_x___+_____________________|
0.87|______________________________o_x_o_x_+_______________________|
0.84|______________________________o___o_+_________________________|
0.81|__________________________________+___________________________|
|||||2_9_7_4_8_4_3_8_3_4_1_4_3_1_6_1_3_3_1_3_7_3_5_6_1_1_7_7_8_1_5_|
|||||Column Count________1_____2___3_____1________

 

[MDunleavy]

Trade Idea:EUR/USD - Buy Stop at 1.3900; Target: 1.4350 ; Stop: 1.3800.

"P&F EURUSD1 Box Size 12X3 or(0.26%) HI/LO
Data 1.4151 - 1.3862 ~ 0.12 Month ~ 3.44 Day
Database 2010 records 1.3873 (Last Close)
2010-10-14 21~15
2010-10-18 07~55 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"
1.4160|~12|||________+_______________|-0.06%|
1.4148|~24|||________x_+_____________|0.02%||
1.4136|~36|||________x_o_+___________|0.11%||
1.4124|~48|||________x_o___+_________|0.19%||
1.4112|~6O|||____x___x_o_____+_______|0.28%||
1.4100|~72|||____x_o_x_o_______+_____|0.36%||
1.4088|~84|||____x_o_x_o_x_______+___|0.45%||
1.4076|~96|||x___x_o___o_x_o_______+_|0.53%||
1.4064|~1O8||x_o_x_____o_x_o_________|0.61%||
1.4052|~12O||__o_x_____o___o_________|0.7%|11
1.4040|~132||__o_x_________o_x_______|0.78%||
1.4028|~144||__o_x_________o_x_o_____|0.87%||
1.4016|~156||__o___________o_x_o_x___|0.95%||
1.4004|~168||______________o_x_o_x_o_|1.04%||
1.3992|~18O||______________o___o_x_o_|1.12%||
1.3980|~192||__________________o_+_o_|1.21%||
1.3968|~2O4||__________________+___o_|1.29%||
1.3956|~216||______________________o_|1.38%||
1.3944|~228||______________________o_|1.46%||
1.3932|~24O||______________________o_|1.55%||
1.3920|~252||______________________o_|1.63%||
1.3908|~264||______________________o_|1.72%||
1.3896|~276||______________________o_|1.8%|||
1.3884|~288||======================o=o1.89%||
1.3872|~3OO||______________________o_|1.97%||
1.3860|~312||______________________+_|2.06%||
Column|||||||2_5_8_3_6_8_3_8_4_5_3_1_||||||||
Count||||||||________________

 

[MDunleavy]

"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 250X3 or(6.18%) HI/LO
Data 1.6038 - 0.8225 ~ 155.85 Month ~ 4582 Day
Database 3277 records 1.32402 (Last Close)
1998-05-11 00~00
2010-11-26 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

1.6000|~25O||______________________+___x_+_____________________|0.24%|94.53%
1.5750|~5OO||______________________x_o_x_o_+___________________|1.8%|91.49%
1.5500|~75O||______________________x___x_o___+_________________|3.35%|88.45%
1.5250|~1OOO|______________________x_____o_____+_______+_______|4.91%|85.41%
1.5000|~125O|______________________x_____o_______+_____x_+_____|6.47%|82.37%
1.4750|~15OO|______________________x_____o_x_______+___x_o_+___|8.03%|79.33%
1.4500|~175O|______________________x_____o_x_o_____x_+_x_o___+_|9.59%|76.29%
1.4250|~2OOO|______________________x_____o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_x___|11.15%|73.25%
1.4000|~225O|______________________x_____o___o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_|12.71%|70.21%
1.3750|~25OO|__________________+___x_________o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_|14.27%|67.17%
1.3500|~275O|__________________x_+_x_________o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_|15.82%|64.13%
1.3250|~3OOO|__________________x_o_x_________o_x___x_o_x_o_x_o_|17.38%|61.09%
1.3000|~325O|______________+___x_o_x_________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x___|18.94%|58.05%
1.2750|~35OO|______________x_+_x_o_x_________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x___|20.5%|55.02%
1.2500|~375O|__+___________x_o_x_o_x_________o___o___o___o_x___|22.06%|51.98%
1.2250|~4OOO|__x_+_________x_o_x_o_x_______________+_____o_x_+_|23.62%|48.94%
1.2000|~425O|__x_o_+___+___x_o___o_x_____________+_______o_+___|25.18%|45.9%
1.1750|~45OO|__x_o___+_x_+_x_____o_____________+_________+_____|26.74%|42.86%
1.1500|~475O|o_x_o_____x_o_x_________________+_________________|28.3%|39.82%
1.1250|~5OOO|o_x_o_____x_o_x_______________+___________________|29.85%|36.78%
1.1000|~525O|o_+_o_____x_o_______________+_____________________|31.41%|33.74%
1.0750|~55OO|+___o_____x_______________+_______________________|32.97%|30.7%
1.0500|~575O|____o_____x_____________+_________________________|34.53%|27.66%
1.0250|~6OOO|____o_____x___________+___________________________|36.09%|24.62%
1.0000|~625O|____o_____x_________+_____________________________|37.65%|21.58%
0.9750|~65OO|____o_____x_______+_______________________________|39.21%|18.54%
0.9500|~675O|____o_x___x_____+_________________________________|40.77%|15.5%
0.9250|~7OOO|____o_x_o_x___+___________________________________|42.32%|12.46%
0.9000|~725O|____o_x_o_x_+_____________________________________|43.88%|9.42%
0.8750|~75OO|____o_x_o_x_______________________________________|45.44%|6.38%
0.8500|~775O|____o_x_o_________________________________________|47%|3.34%
0.8250|~8OOO|____o_+___________________________________________|48.56%|0.3%
0.8000|~825O|____+_____________________________________________|50.12%|-2.74%
Column|||||||2_5_1_5_4_1_3_7_3_6_7_1_1_3_8_3_9_3_3_8_8_1_1_9_4_|
Count||||||||____6_____3___________6________________