Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs

[vicknic]

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs May 30 - June 3

This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX


EURUSD

Today Monday, the American dollar recorded gains against the euro. This was as the dollar was well boosted by comments coming from Janet Yellen the Federal Reserve chair. These comments pointed strongly in the direction of interest rates hike soonest. Janet Yellen had precisely indicated we could have interest rates in the closest months to come saying it "was appropriate" for the Federal Reserve to increase US interest rates "gradually and cautiously" if the growth in the US labour market as well as the US economy is maintained.
Thus today we saw the EURUSD pair moving up past 1.1125. This is quite close to 1.1098 which is a 10-week lows it had fallen to overnight.


There was much reduced trade today as markets in New York and London were shut observing a public holiday. Although European CPI data were quite positive; yet they were not strong enough to push the euro against the dollar as the hopes of interest rates which had been expected for too long had strongly supported the dollar.

The last time we had hike in interest rates was far back in December last year (which was almost the first time we saw US interest rates hike in about ten years). Janet Yellen had been particularly cautious of increasing interest rates pointing to a weak global economy. Certainly, should interest rates be increased, the American dollar would be the centre of attraction in the market. Also suggesting an interest rate hike soonest were statements coming from James Bullard who is the St. Louis Fed President. According to him today Monday, global markets seemed to be “well-prepared” for a possible interest rate hike from the US this summer, but he didn't dive further into details of what date particularly we could have the policy move.

Data coming from the United States had already been indicating a strengthening US economy. This is as the anticipated slowdown in the first quarter growth in the US economy was not as sharp as initial estimates had suggested. The US first quarter GDP-Growth had been revised upwards. Gross domestic product had gone up by a margin of 0.8% annual rate- initial estimates had suggested a growth of just 0.5% last month. And then the US economy had gone up by 1.4% according to the US Commerce Department. The EURUSD pair thus went up further moving up to 1.1132; an upward move of about 0.15% from the trough of two and half months the pair had fallen to overnight.

Support levels:1.0987, 1.1049, 1.1080
Resistance levels:1.1173 , 1.1235, 1.1266

EURUSD support and resistance:

EURUSD indicators:

Now looking forward. The dollar is looking set to maintain its gains up as the vibrant support from the hopes of Federal Reserve raising interest rates is still fresh. Janet Yellen had said this interest rate hikes would come if the US economy and labour market keeps growing. Thus this week, investors will be critically looking at the very crucial data on the U.S. non-farm payrolls as well. Should data on the U.S. non-farm payrolls be impressively positive, it will greatly increase anticipations of a possible June interest rate hike thus pushing the dollar up further against the euro.


USDJPY


The dollar rose to a four-week high against the yen today Monday. This was as a result of Federal Reserve Janet Yellen had given indications of a possible interest rate in the following months. Thus today, the dollar went up rising past 111.00 handle which is a one-month high as the dollar climbed up to 111.39 yen.

In the last G7 finance ministers meeting which was convened in Tokyo, there was an intense disagreement between Japan and the US pertaining to statements come from Japan of late. These comments had threatened that Japan would intervene should the yen begin its aggressive gains again as it had sometime of late. Taro Aso who is the Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso had maintained his stand that those sharp gains we saw in the yen were “one-sided and speculative” and the previous gains of the yen had been "disorderly". US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew had gone against his opinion that the gains which the yen had earlier recorded were not disorderly. Yet today movements in the USDJPY were not inspired by this as the movement in the pair were dominated by Fed statements.

The rise of the US dollar in the market as of now is majorly due to very realistic hopes of rates increase. According to the reputable CME’s Fedwatch program ( a fed watchtool monitoring US economic policies), the chances that we can see interest rates hike in the meeting by June 14 had notably gone up to about 34% while that of a possible interest rate hike in the policy meeting to hold by June 26-27 had gone up to about 60%. This is about two times of what it posted last month.

From Japan, demand for the yen as a safe haven had been greatly affected as reports emerged that Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan is aiming to postpone the planned sales tax by over a year. This would mark the second time we have seen a delay in sales tax increase from Japan. Thus today we saw the USDJPY pair rising up to 113.34. This is a move up of about 0.9%. This increase in the currency pair is the peak it had gotten to since the 28th of April.

As well, data on Japanese Retail Sales had shown a decline. This is the second consecutive month the Japanese retail sales is contracting. The Japanese National Core CPI was not encouraging either as it posted a fall of 0.3%. This disappointing data coupled with a dollar strengthening on the prospects of close interest rates hike had pushed the dollar up against the Japanese yen with the USDJPY pair gaining as far up as 111.44. This move would set the dollar in its most impressive run of gains against the yen for the month of May.

Support levels:108.68, 109.07, 109.65
Resistance levels:110.62, 111.01, 111.59

USDJPY support and resistance:

USDJPY indicators:

Looking forward, for now, the US dollar is on strong form owing to the comments coming from the Federal Reserve on possible interest rate hike. Investors are heavily expecting that this June, the Federal Reserve would increase interest rates. Should data on US non-farm payrolls coming this week be positive,the dollar will only be stronger, gaining more against the yen.


GBPUSD

Today, in early trade, the GBPUSD turned around moving up from a low of 1.4588, the pair gained enough strength to move up to 1.4637. The strengthening British pounds defied the dollars despite statements from the Federal Reserve on potential rise in interest rates.

Opinion polls which are greatly going against a departure of the UK again from the EU. This seeming possibility that the UK will not leave the EU come the next critical referendum had reasonably boosted the British pound. Just last week, the pair had gone up, increasing for the second straight week. The pair had hovered today around the region of 1.4600 after struggling to break above the 1.4700 handle.

The pound thus made a recovery today after initially falling to the strength of the dollar when Janet Yellen immediately said interest rates were "appropriate". Job data as well as Investor sentiment will be coming from the United States will be a big decider as to if the Federal Reserve would make announcements of tighter monetary policy when they meet by the 15th of next month. This is just days before we have the very crucial UK referendum.


As the market went on Today, the odds that we could have an increment in the rates next month had doubled up. This is as federal funds futures which surveys the likeliness of the Federal Reserve raising rates had sprung up their reading for May; with the chances of increase rates rising as far as 30%. Thus eventually the pound fell to the further strengthening dollar as the GBP/USD went down by a decline of about 0.29 percent, dropping to 1.4596.

Support levels:1.4333, 1.4419, 1.4517
Resistance levels:1.4701, 1.4787, 1.4885

GBPUSD support and resistance:

GBPUSD indicators:

Looking into the future, the swings in support of the UK staying in the EU which is yet confusingly followed by swings supporting the UK to leave has caused great uncertainty in the UK; even pressuring the British pound. This uncertainty had even caused investment to drop in the UK as well as the UK service sectors showing decline; this uncertainty is making the pound less attractive now while dollar is going stronger as interest rates look to be increased. Thus the dollar could go up against the British pound.

 

[vicknic]

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs June 6 - 10

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EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish

There was no big movement in the EURUSD either up or down as the USD looked likely to go down against the euro. Subsequently, prices for the EURUSD jumped up significantly by 220 pips closing last week at 1.1365. For now the pair looks set for the euro to make gains up though this could be compromised with Federal Reserve officials still maintaining a positive tone for interest rates to be hiked.

Though it is more likely that the pair could sustain its move up. With the UK on the verge of a pull out from the European Union, the general outlook of the euro is bearish. This means it could fall in its major pairs including the EURUSD.


USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish

The pair struggled to move past the resistance level of 0.9950. This occurring many times across the span of last week. Despite the zeal displayed by the pair to cross above 0.9550, it could not thus maintaining a distance from the mark of 1.0000. The pair saw large movement last week, waiting till Friday to consolidate, at which the pair notably fell even up the extent of dropping past the support level at 0.9750. This noteworthy fall formed a bearish confirmation thus establishing the possibility for the pair to drop further down to the support levels at 0.9650 and 0.9700. Now it can be inferred that if the EURUSD drops further, USDCHF is likely to see more traders scrambling to buy the pair.



GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

The pair made a push last week to rise remarkably. Prices attempted to rise above the 1.4700 mark only for the pair to fall down largely by 300 pips. This fall reduced the pair to the region of 1.4400. This was before it had risen up owing to disappointing data from the US on non farm payrolls. While a good number of currency pairs stand to experience weakened volatility this month, contrary to this, the GBP pairs stand out to see much volatility and movement this month majorly as a result of the upcoming Brexit referendum. This had resulted in an array of bullish and bearish movements. There is the possibility that the pair could be affected by many traders rushing to buy it. But this may not last long as for now those clamouring for the UK to leave the EU are gaining a louder voice. This is the first time this will be happening as regards those pushing for a UK exit to be leading.


USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish

There was also sideway movements in the pair as well, after failing to either move up or down notably last week. Last week Monday and Tuesday, the pair was on a losing end; falling freely with great speed. The fall in the pair last week Friday happened to be the largest such that the accumulated losses of the pair ran in to 420 pips. It is likely this week that the pair could push back, even ascending as far to the levels of 105.50 and 106.00. After this a reversal becomes a solid possibility.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish

The pair struggled to put together a push in the upward direction last week. But such move was halted at the level of124.00. After failing to rise past that 124.00 handle, the EURJPY began a fall; climbing down to 121.50. Just in the same character of the USDJPY currency pair, it appears it could drop further to the level of 120.50 or even worse at 120.00 before it attempts an upward comeback.

 

[vicknic]

Here’s the market outlook for this week June 13- 17:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Neutral

For most of last month, the EURUSD currency pair was on the downward trend. But by June 3, there was an indication the pair would turn around and rise owing to a powerful bullish breakout. Despite this, the EURUSD failed to keep its pace up as the pair went down after attempting to rise above 1.1400 which is a resistance level. This has the made the trend quite unclear as gains of June 3 have been cleared by the strong downward movement of the pair across the last four days. But then, it is not certain that the pair would is on a downtrend- not until the pair falls as far below 1.1150. Only when the pair drops below this point can we surely expect a long fall of the currency pair. And then for the trend of the EURUSD to be up again, the pair has to at least cross above 1.1350 which is a vital resistance line.


USDJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish
Last week,there was no big movement with neither the dollar nor the yen gaining on each other. The pair was almost flat across last week. Though on Monday, the dollar made a push to move up against the yen, there is the strong possibility that the yen would reverse and make gains against the dollar. Thus it appears the USDJPY might go down this week even going as far down as 105.50 and 106.00 which are notable demand levels.


GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish


Between last week Monday and Tuesday, the GBPUSD had risen up by 260 pips. This was not really in line with expectations as the pair had dropped down noticeably by 460 pips following its test of the distribution territory located at 1.4650. However big movements in the GBPUSD have been shocking so far. In fact, this month, we expect heavy movement in the pair as a very crucial referendum comes up the 23rd of this month where it will be decided whether Britain remains in the European Union or not. The swings in the chances of Britain breaking out have been responsible for the GBPUSD moving up and down so far. But on a longer term, we can say the british pound could drop further against the dollar.



EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish

For this pair, prices had risen up by over 165 pips across last week. But the push up for the EURJPY was halted at 122.50 which is a supply zone. On Friday, the pair had dropped to close at 120.37 which is about a fall of 250 pips. The points 110.00 and 120.00 being demand levels are very important to look out for as there is real chance the pair would fall down further.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish

This pair had dropped across last by week by over 178 pips. The decline has pushed the pair as far below to 0.9600 which is a noteworthy support level. Since the third of June when we had the crucial US jobs data turn out very disappointing, the USDCHF pair had dropped to 0.9577 which is a weekly low. This drop is over a fall of 290 pips. For now, it seems the pair might even fall further dropping past the levels of 0.9550. A detailed move up for the pair could be a solid reality should the pair rise to touch 0.9800 which is a critical resistance level.

 

[vicknic]

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Neutral

All of the upward movement of the EURUSD last week have been nullified by downward movements. Gains in the pair so far across last week have been cancelled keeping the EURUSD stuck between 1.1150 which is a support line and 1.1300 which is a resistance line. Since there has been no distinct movement either up or down so far, we can say the market has been neutral. This neutrality of the market would not change unless prices fall below the 1.1100 support or on the other hand break above the 1.1400 resistance line. Now going further, should prices break past 1.1400, we could have a long stretch of upward movements or gains in the pair. Equally, should prices fall down below the 1.1100 support line, there could be stretch of downward movement or losses. For now the trend is not clear but then there is the solid chance there would be lot of movement in the pair for this week. Most likely, it appears it could be downward movement in the pair.


EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish

At the moment, it appears the EURJPY is on a downtrend just like it is across many JPY pairs. Now there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in place now in the market so it is possible prices could get to demand zones at 117.00, 116.00; even dropping down to 115.00 next week.
The EURJPY had briefly touched 117.00 and 116.00 levels last week; thus there is the prospects that it could be tested again across the next four days. Worth noting here is should the euro face any pressure this week, then any tangible gain in the EURJPY would be quite hard to see.


GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish

No unusual movement is really expected on GBP pairs for the next four days. This is because to have very sharp market movements, we need to have event we never anticipated
the least. Whereas the possible exit of Britain from the EU is well anticipated as of now. There could be large moves of course, but most likely they wouldn't be beating what we have had so far this year. Now due to the referendum to hold on Thursday, the GBPUSD (as well as a lot of other GBP pairs) could go in one unique direction with no reversal ( or very little if there must be) but then it wouldn't be enough to surprise us. As such for the week the outlook remains bearish, thus it is possible for the pair to fall further.


USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish

Just in line with our previous forecast, the USDJPY had actually crashed across last week by over 295 pips. This massive fall brings the USDJPY below the demand level of 104.00 after which it start swinging sideways again. So far the USDJPY has dropped by almost 548 pips since this June began. It is even likely the decline of the USDJPY would stretch a while longer as prices aim for 103.00 and 103.50 both of which are demand levels.


USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish

Last week, there was sideways movement in the pair with up and down movements. The sideway movement is more in the downward direction. Now, for the USDCHF to continue to fall, it will have to drop below the 0.9550 support line. And then should the pair fall further, it could spark a reversal with the USDCHF turning around to make gains even rising as far to reach the 0.9800 resistance line setting up a Bullish Confirmation Pattern.

 

[vicknic]

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs June 20- 24

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EURUSD
Dominant bias: Neutral

All of the upward movement of the EURUSD last week have been nullified by downward movements. Gains in the pair so far across last week have been cancelled keeping the EURUSD stuck between 1.1150 which is a support line and 1.1300 which is a resistance line. Since there has been no distinct movement either up or down so far, we can say the market has been neutral. This neutrality of the market would not change unless prices fall below the 1.1100 support or on the other hand break above the 1.1400 resistance line. Now going further, should prices break past 1.1400, we could have a long stretch of upward movements or gains in the pair. Equally, should prices fall down below the 1.1100 support line, there could be stretch of downward movement or losses. For now the trend is not clear but then there is the solid chance there would be lot of movement in the pair for this week. Most likely, it appears it could be downward movement in the pair.


EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish

At the moment, it appears the EURJPY is on a downtrend just like it is across many JPY pairs. Now there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in place now in the market so it is possible prices could get to demand zones at 117.00, 116.00; even dropping down to 115.00 next week.
The EURJPY had briefly touched 117.00 and 116.00 levels last week; thus there is the prospects that it could be tested again across the next four days. Worth noting here is should the euro face any pressure this week, then any tangible gain in the EURJPY would be quite hard to see.


GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish

No unusual movement is really expected on GBP pairs for the next four days. This is because to have very sharp market movements, we need to have event we never anticipated
the least. Whereas the possible exit of Britain from the EU is well anticipated as of now. There could be large moves of course, but most likely they wouldn't be beating what we have had so far this year. Now due to the referendum to hold on Thursday, the GBPUSD (as well as a lot of other GBP pairs) could go in one unique direction with no reversal ( or very little if there must be) but then it wouldn't be enough to surprise us. As such for the week the outlook remains bearish, thus it is possible for the pair to fall further.


USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish

Just in line with our previous forecast, the USDJPY had actually crashed across last week by over 295 pips. This massive fall brings the USDJPY below the demand level of 104.00 after which it start swinging sideways again. So far the USDJPY has dropped by almost 548 pips since this June began. It is even likely the decline of the USDJPY would stretch a while longer as prices aim for 103.00 and 103.50 both of which are demand levels.


USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish

Last week, there was sideways movement in the pair with up and down movements. The sideway movement is more in the downward direction. Now, for the USDCHF to continue to fall, it will have to drop below the 0.9550 support line. And then should the pair fall further, it could spark a reversal with the USDCHF turning around to make gains even rising as far to reach the 0.9800 resistance line setting up a Bullish Confirmation Pattern.

 

[vicknic]

Forex Analysis and News for major currency pairs July, Week 3

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Here’s the market outlook for this week:


EURUSD
Price Trend: Neutral

There was no significant movement in the EURUSD last week. The pair was stuck in the region between the support line placed at 1.1000 and the resistance line at 1.1150. Although last week Friday, prices attempted to cross below, but then it is very likely prices will remain above the support line at 1.1000. Now for this week, the chances are higher that prices would go up such that the EURUSD may rise as far as crossing the resistance levels 1.2000 before this week runs out.

EURJPY
Price Trend: Bullish

Last week the EURJPY rose up by 700 pips. Thus on the 4-hour chart, this gain formed a bullish confirmation pattern. Though as Friday came, the pair went down by over 200 pips on Friday. At the moment, the Bullish Confirmation Pattern is still valid. With this in mind, it is thus possible for prices to further go up this week. The trend will reverse from an uptrend to a downtrend should prices fall below 114.00 which is a significant demand zone.



GBPUSD
Price Trend: Bearish

Just in line with expectations, the GBPUSD made an attempt to rise up. Despite the push up, the trend remains downwards. A number of other GBP pairs like the GBPNZD and the GBPJPY had made attempts to push up too. The GBPJPY even went as far as climbing up by 1300 pips. Prices for the GBPUSD had moved up by a margin of 550 pips finishing the run up at 1.3480. At this point, the pair began crashing again. A bullish signal is forming on the 1 hour charts and the 4 hour charts, but then the general outlook for the GBPUSD remains bearish though it is possible prices may move up even turning the general trend upwards.



USDJPY
Price Trend: Bullish

As against what was anticipated, the price went up notably across last week (this increase was shared by other JPY pairs). The USDJPY remarkably moved up by 550 pips which pushed prices up to 106.00. With 106.00 being a supply level. Consequently there was a slight fall in prices last week Friday. At the moment, we have a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. What this implies is that there is the solid chance that prices would still move up. One thing that could prevent this is the American dollar getting weaker. This could cause a lot of traders to sell the dollar.


USDCHF
Price Trend: Bullish

Despite major attempts by the USDCHF to fall down,the pair managed to avoid a big crash last week. Prices impressively moved above 0.9850 which is a crucial resistance level. But then the move up was not strong enough to push the USDCHF to the resistance level at 0.9900. This very resistance level at 0.9900 has been one significant resistance level which prices have struggled to break above. Prices experienced a brief bearish correction on Wednesday and Thursday, yet this doesn't change the direction of the trend from being upwards. Prices may even move higher this week but there are some conditions that may play against the further move up. The first condition is that the CHF could gain strength any time for the month of July. The second condition is that the American dollar may lose strength by Friday this week. Thus the uptrend would be maintained for the USDCHF unless one of the above conditions happens.

 

[vicknic]

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs July, Week 4

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Here’s the market outlook for this week:

EURUSD
Price Trend : Bearish

This past week, the downtrend got stronger, with the EURUSD falling lower by 100 pips. This fall dragged the EURUSD down such that the pair on Friday closed above 1.0950 which is a support line.
Existing for the EURUSD is a “sell” signal in the market. This has the possibility of testing the support lines at 1.0900, 1.0850 as well as 1.0800 for the next four days. Across this week, we expect the dollar to get stronger. Last week, there was no significant movement in many of the big pairs, but then there is a greater chance the major pairs would make big movements this week.

EURJPY
Price Trend: Bullish

The pair made a significant move to rise, but it halted at 118.46. Considering the strong possibility that the JPY pairs could fall this week, it becomes likely that the pair may drop down below the demand zones located at 115.50, 115.00 and 114.50. Now should prices fall below 114.00 which is a crucial demand level, the trend may turn downwards causing prices to crash.


USDJPY

Price Trend: Bullish
Last week, the USDJPY had gone up by 200 pips. This rise brought it very close to the supply level at 107.50. An attempt to move higher for the pair broke down as the USDJPY dropped down by about 150 pips. Despite the fact that on the 4-hour chart,we see a Bullish Confirmation Pattern, there is still a bearish trend for JPY pairs across the next four days. Having this in mind,we see that that the pair may even fall lower this week. The only likely thing to prevent this decline is the USD getting stronger.


GBPUSD
Price Trend: Neutral

There was sideways movement for the pair for last week that made the short-term trend look neutral. Yet for this week, we expect the pair to see big movement in the pair up and down which may eventually cancel out. The pair may attempt to push up but may find this difficult owing to a strengthening dollar. There are the expectations of mixed results for GBP pairs. The reason behind this is that the GBP currency pair could gain strength against some currencies which includes the NZD and the AUD. But then the GBP may get weaker against the Japanese yen.



USDCHF
Price Trend: Bullish

Despite many attempts to fall down, the USDCHF managed to keep its way up. This was actually impressive considering that there was not much gain above 0.9800 which is a crucial support line. There is yet one point that the pair is struggling to break past. This is the resistance level at 0.9900. But then there is hope for the USDCHF to break above this week. Movement in the USDCHF this week is very crucial as it is necessary for the pair to cross this 0.9900 resistance level so as to avoid falling back. One factor that will contribute to the push up for the pair is the USD getting stronger.

 

[vicknic]

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs August, Week 1

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Here’s the market outlook for this week:

EURUSD
Price Trend: Bullish

Last week, the EURUSD began a move up. It had climbed up by 230 pips, rising up to 1.1195; such that it had closed above 1.1150 which is an important support line. The signal in the market for now is to buy and there is good chance the EURUSD will keep on increasing. As noted earlier, the big pairs (except the GBPUSD) had experienced greater movement as compared to what they saw between July 18 to 22. This week, there is a great possibility that the EURUSD will keep rising up, with the euro making gains against major pairs in this new month. Where the euro may actually fall is against the Japanese yen.



EURJPY
Price Trend: Bearish
Just similarly to many other JPY pairs, the EURJPY had fallen down on Monday, as well as dropping down further on Tuesday. But then the decline temporarily stopped on Wednesday and Thursday with a brief increase. Yet on Friday again, the EURJPY dropped down approaching 113.94; which is a decline of about 250 pips. Thus it is right to say the EURJPY could fall further this week.



GBPUSD
Price Trend: Neutral

Another sideways movement of prices confirms the tight equilibrium phase. But then it is very likely we will have a strong breakout of about 500 pips this week or the second week of August. This month there stands to be increases in the GBP against the NZD, AUD, but then the GBP could suffer losses against the yen; even falling down against the American dollar.


USDJPY
Price Trend: Bearish
Just as we were hoping for, the trend turned downwards - falling down last week by 450 pips. The USDJPY made strong attempts to rise up, but then the pair fell on Friday. We expect the USDJPY this week to rise to crucial demand levels at 101.50, 101.00 and 100.50. Though this may end up not happening if the USD gets stronger. But then for this month, the chances are higher that the USDJPY may even fall further.




USDCHF
Price Trend: Bearish

Price had fallen notably last week owing to the fact that the USD grew weaker. This was not actually what we were expecting. The USDCHF had suffered a setback even after it has risen by over 90 pips at first; getting to 0.9950 which is a resistance level. The USDCHF went on dropping by over 295 pips; eventually falling to 0.9635 from a high of 0.9949. The 0.9635 is a weekly low. As of now in the market, there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern. This week, it is very possible that the pair would fall further, provided the USD doesn't get stronger.

 

[vicknic]

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs August, Week 2

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Here’s the market outlook for this week:

EURUSD

Price Trend: Bearish

The EURUSD actually started going up in the ending of last month. But then the prices could not stay up for long. Although the EURUSD made a slight attempt to resume its rise on Monday and Tuesday last week; impressing in its climb above 1.1200 (a notable resistance line). Even rising as far as 1.1231 which is a weekly high. But at this point, prices fell massively, dropping down by 180 pips such that the currency pair closed above the resistance line at 1.1050. This point was actually tested on Friday before the market closed for the week. For now, we can say the price trend is bearish; as such prices still falling lower is a possibility. Thus we can expect prices to fall down approaching the support lines located at 1.1050 and 1.1000. Then at this point a reversal could occur. But if it does, it will not last long. The bearish trend needs to be very strong for the EURUSD to break below 1.1000 which is a significant support line.


GBPUSD

Price Trend: Bearish

On the 4-hour chart, the price trend is bearish. This is the same on the daily chart as well. Yet the market neither went up or down on Monday last week; only to make some gains rising upward the following day. But on Wednesday the market back to being flat. Then on thursday and Friday, prices started falling. For now we can say a Bearish Confirmation Pattern exists. There are the expectations that GBP will suffer losses against its major rivals across the next four days. With the prospects of a decline versus most major currencies this week. While prices are expected to fall, the GBPUSD will still make attempts however slight to rise up.



USDCHF

Price Trend: Bearish

The fact that the USDCHF had remarkably gone up by 180 pips doesn't really change the trend from being bearish. For the trend to turn around to an uptrend, USDCHF would still have to climb an additional 200 pips. Thus the latest gains in the USDCHF are not strong signals of an uptrend yet. Prices still look very likely to still fall this week.


EURJPY
Price Trend: Bearish

Slowly, prices went down last week falling by an additional 200 pip decline. For now, there exists a Bearish Confirmation Pattern for the EURJPY pair (and on a general note, the bias for JPY pairs is bearish). In this light, we expect prices to fall further by as much as 200 pips and even more. It is not really safe to open long positions; long positions could become cool to open when there is a change in the situation of the market.


USDJPY
Price Trend: Bearish
Only Tuesday last week was a there a trending movement - the remaining days of the week, prices were neither moving up or moving down. Thus last week Friday,we saw prices trying to force a push up; although this was short-lived. Considering this, the trend still remains bearish with prices looking to fall down further. Points of interest we should be watching out for this week in the USDJPY is 100.50 and 100.00; both of which are critical demand levels.

 

[vicknic]

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs August, Week 3

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Here’s the market outlook for this week:

EURUSD

Price Trend: Bullish

Last week, prices were moving sideways on Monday. Then the next day on Tuesday, prices attempted to break above the resistance line located at 1.1200 after it had climbed about 130 pips. At the end, the EURUSD finished above the support line located at 1.1150. For this week, it is possible prices could rise up. But then it is also likely prices may fall due to the growing weakness of the euro against other major currencies (though the euro will not likely fall against the GBP). The uptrend for now could change if the EURUSD drops below 1.1050 which is a critical support line.



USDJPY

Price Trend: Bearish

We actually saw the decline we were expecting last week. This has cut short the rise up of the USDJPY. Despite the several attempts the pair made to rise, they failed such that the trend remained bearish. For this week, it is likely prices may push towards 100.50 and
100.00, both of which are demand levels. The trend could change if the yen gets weaker across then week.



USDCHF

Price Trend: Bearish

There is a strong signal to sell the USDCHF for now; the signal is even stronger in the near-term. This week, prices may rise as fall as much as attempting to break below the support levels at 0.9700 and 0.9650.
Yet there is the chance that decline in the pair may be cut short such that there will be a rise in prices forming in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern. But then if we don't see the EURUSD going weaker this week, the USDCHF will keep on falling.



GBPUSD

Price Trend: Bearish

Just as we had expected, the GBPUSD fell further last week. It had dropped by 170 pips to close the week on Friday below 1.2950 which is an important distribution territory. In the same manner like other GBP pairs (minus the EURGBP), the future of the GBPUSD for this week is more of a decline. The pair could fall such that the accumulation territories at 1.2900, 1.2850 and 1.2800 could be tested. The very condition that can turn around the weakness of the GBPUSD is a remarkably positive data or news for GBP or disappointing news from the US concerning the dollar.

 

[vicknic]

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs August, Week 4

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Here’s the market outlook for this week:

EURUSD

Price Trend: Bullish

The EURUSD made gains of 200 pips across last week. With these gains, the EURUSD rose up attempting to break beyond 1.1350 which is an important resistance line before the current shallow retracement. Thus for this new week, the currency pair may rise as far as 1.1400 and 1.1450; both which are resistance lines. But the rise of the EURUSD this week may be threatened as the pair could fall; even reversing the trend to a downtrend.



EURJPY

Price Trend: Neutral

The price trend became neutral in the near term due to fourteen days of consolidation (although the long-term trend is still a downtrend). If we have more sideways movement in the EURJPY, this will indicate that the trend is still neutral. There are the chances however that we can have a breakout in this week or the following week most likely in the direction of the demand zones at 112.50, 112.00 and 111.50.


USDJPY

Price Trend: Bearish

Last week Monday and Tuesday, there was a fall of 170 pips in the USDJPY. But then over the remaining days in the week, the pair experienced sideways movement. For now, the future of the JPY pairs has not changed from being bearish (although CADJPY could go up in the condition that the CAD makes gains). This very week, it is possible for the USDJPY to test 100.00, 99.50 and 99.00; all three which are demand levels. This would be the same way USDJPY tested 100.00 and 99.50 last week. But then the USDJPY was quick to fall below them last week.

 

[vicknic]

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs August 29- 2 September



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Here’s the market outlook for this week:

EURUSD


Price Trend: Bullish


The trend for now is an uptrend; but this is not very certain. Prices for the EURUSD had fallen down by 120 pips by the end of last week on Friday. Should prices move below 1.1100 which happens to be a crucial support line, this will result in the formation of a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern. But then in the case where prices rise above 1.1350 (which is a resistance line), the present uptrend will get stronger.



EURJPY


Price Trend: Neutral


The trend for the EURJPY is neutral. But then on the longer term, the trend may turn to a downtrend. This is really possible considering that there has been sideways movement in the pair in the last past three weeks. But then the trend is bearish on larger time frames. Last week on the Friday there was a bullish breakout, this may bring about a false break in the condition that prices do not maintain their movement north. Thus for the fact that the trend for JPY pairs is still a downtrend, we could have a pullback into the demand zone at 113.00 (though strong selling pressure will be required to break past it).



GBPUSD


Price Trend: Bullish


In the nearest future, the trend is an uptrend but then on a longer term, the trend may turn around to a downtrend. Price had jumped up 200 pips across last week even attempting to break past the distribution territory located at 1.3250. After this, this pair experienced a pullback by the end of the week on Friday. However, on the short-term, the trend still remains an uptrend. This should be so as long as price keep on top of the accumulation territories located at 1.3000 and 1.2950. We expect GBP pairs will experience an increased volatility the following month. This is quite opposite the reduced volatility we saw for the month of August.

USDJPY


Price Trend: Neutral


In the nearest term, the trend is still is neutral. But then across on the longer term, prices could fall down. The USDJPY faced a very tight consolidation between Thursday and Monday last week. But then prices broke upwards by the end of the week which is Friday. Though this will not cancel the neutral trend. The trend should only change from neutral should prices get above 103.00 and 103.50; both of which are important supply levels. Also possible is prices falling below the demand levels located at 101.00 and 100.50 as the trend for a number JPY pairs is bearish for this month.



USDCHF


Price Trend: Bearish


Just in line with what we had hoped for last weekend, the Swiss franc got weaker however briefly. The weakness in the CHF came alongside rising gains in the EURUSD with the EURUSD remarkably rising up by 170 pips last week. The USD only made strong attempts to recover from its losses by Friday. Keeping this in mind, we expect this USDCHF to go up so long the factors remain constant. Thus it is possible to have the formation of a Bullish Confirmation Pattern. If this doesn’t happen, there could be a heavy pullback in the pair.

 

[vicknic]

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs August, September Week 1

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Here is the market outlook for this week:

EURUSD
Price Trend: Bearish

Last week the trend for the EURUSD became a downtrend such that the pair closed on Friday at 1.1152. The pair made heavy attempts to rise up towards the end of the week on Thursday as well as on Friday, yet the downtrend was too strong to be reversed. 1.1100 and 1.1050 are notable support lines which could be tested in the next four days. This way the resistance lines located at 1.1300 and 1.1350 would resist any significant rise in prices. Thus the downtrend may continue unless prices break above the resistance line located at 1.1350.


EURJPY

Price Trend: Bullish

Just as we had anticipated, there was an end to the equilibrium phase in this currency
pair which had lasted from 8 to 26 of last month. Price went up by about 290 pips last week. As of now, the EURJPY is making strong attempts to settle above 116.00 where we have a supply zone. It is necessary for prices to remain above 116.00 for the uptrend to be maintained. This is possible across the next four days. For the fact that the yen is not strong, currencies which are making gains (among which is the GBP) could experience more gains against the JPY.



GBPUSD
Price Trend: Bullish

There was a consolidation in prices for the GBPUSD currency pair across Monday and Tuesday last week. After this, there was a strong rise in prices by Thursday. This move up was strong enough to form a BullishConfirmation Pattern on the H4 time frame. It is likely prices would keep rising such that the GBPUSD may reach the distribution territories located at 1.3400 and 1.3450. Across the next three weeks, we may see increased volatility in GBP pairs.

USDJPY

Price Trend: Bullish

Prices for the USDJPY started to rise up as far back August 26. Last week, there was continued increase in prices with the USDJPY rising by 400 pips. The pair made serious attempts to remain above 104.00 which is a crucial supply level but at the end of the week, it had fallen below it. For now the trend is a strong uptrend . With this in mind, we expect prices to keep rising this week.


USDCHF
Price Trend: Bullish

The trend last week turned around to an uptrend. The rise in the prices helped the USDCHF to close above 0.9800 which is an important support level. Fall in prices on Thursday and Friday threatened to reverse the trend to an downtrend but then at the end of the week the trend was still bullish. 0.9850 and 0.9900 are resistance levels which could be eventually tested this week and then it is very possible that the support levels located at 0.9750 and 0.9700 would prevent any significant fall in the USDCHF. Thus we expect the trend to remain an uptrend so long prices don't fall below the support level located at 0.9700.

 

[vicknic]

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs September Week 2

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Here’s the market outlook for this week


EURUSD
Price Trend: Bullish

Last week, prices made an attempt to break above the resistance line located at 1.1300. The trend was still bullish, with the euro getting stronger in face of a weakening US Dollar. Thus this week, it is possible prices could rise up touching the resistance line we have at 1.1300 even as far as approaching 1.1350 which is a crucial resistance line. The increasing strength of the euro so far has prompted many EUR pairs to start going up.


EURJPY
Price Trend: Bullish

For now the trend is an uptrend, but then on a longer term, the trend is a downtrend. Last week prices had attempted falling but price were pulled from the demand zone at 114.00 in the direction of the supply zone located at 115.50. This erased the previous decline of 200 pips which had occurred from Monday to Wednesday. We now expect prices to maintain their push up owing to the chances of the Japanese yen going weaker.

GBPUSD
Price Trend: Bearish

On the long term, the trend for this pair is downwards. The GBPUSD at present is making strong efforts to rise up. Price had gone up last by 140 pips on Monday and Tuesday. After this impressive gain, the pair started falling down from Wednesday. Should prices fall further below the accumulation territory located at 1.3100; it will form a very vibrant Bearish Confirmation Pattern. But then, should prices move on top of the distribution territory at 1.3450, this will change the trend to an uptrend for this week.


USDJPY
Price Trend: Bearish

The USDJPY experienced a notable decline of 260 pips last week; falling for a short period under the demand level located at 101.50. After this the USDJPY recorded an increase of 170-pip. Prices broke above supply level we have at 103.00 in course of increasing prices. In the situation where the USDJPY further maintain this gains, the trend will turn to an uptrend. Should this occur, prices would rise touching the supply levels located 103.50 and 104.00.



USDCHF
Price Trend: Neutral

For now, the trend is not really clear. Yet there is possibility that the USDCHF may experience some directional movement this week. It is even most likely this said movement could be downward. There is the increasing chance that the EURUSD will maintain its rise (as we expect the euro to get stronger this week). Thus an increasing EURUSD could cause the USDCHF to fall down. One other factor which can also bring about a falling dollar is the CHF gaining more strength. As such for this week, we should pay good attention to CHF pairs for hints. Across the next four days, prices should be aiming for the support levels located at 0.9700, 0.9650 and 0.9600.

 

[vicknic]

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs September, Week 3

This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX


Here’s the market outlook for this week:

EURUSD
Price Trend: Bearish

There was sideways movement in prices of the EURUSD last week from Monday to Thursday. And by Friday, the currency pair had dropped by 85 pips. If that break down had not happened, then the trend for this week would have been neutral. But for now the trend still remains bearish with the possibility that prices may fall down to touch 1.1100 and even 1.1050 which are crucial support levels for this week. The trend for now which is a downtrend may change should prices move up above 1.1300.


EURJPY
Price Trend: Bearish


Prices fell down for the EURJPY on Monday. But the currency pair recovered from its losses the next day such that by Wednesday the pair had hit 116.08. After this prices slipped down by 200 pips by Friday. This decline made the trend a downtrend. There is the possibility that prices for the EURJPY may move towards the demand zones located at 113.50 and 113.00 across the next four days.


GBPUSD
Price Trend: Bearish

Across last week, the GBPUSD had fallen by over 280 pips. Such that the GBPUSD fell below the distribution territory located at 1.3000 by last week ending. Across the next two weeks, the trend is a downtrend. We have now found a bearish confirmation pattern. Because of this, it is possible the GBPUSD may rise up to 1.2950, 1.2900 and 1.2850 (all are accumulation territories) across the next four days. One thing that can change this is major data macroeconomic data turning out other than expected. For now the trend for all the GBP currency pairs (minus the EURGBP) is a downtrend.


USDJPY
Price Trend: Neutral

Between Monday and Friday last week, prices were between the supply level located at 101.50 and the demand level we have at 103.50. This made the trend neutral. Across the next four days, the trend will most likely become a downtrend. The trend will become stronger and clearer when we have rising momentum. There is high chance that the trend for every JPY currency pair will become a downtrend this week - even with the downtrend extending to next week.


USDCHF
Price Trend: Neutral

Despite the fact that prices had went up by last week Friday, this was not enough to really change the trend from being neutral. Prices tried to push above an important resistance level located at 0.9800. Because of this, if the USDCHF can rise as far as 0.9855, the trend will become an uptrend. The uptrend will become very solid if prices can rise as far as 0.9910. This though for now is not very likely. On the other hand, should the USDCHF drop down below the support level we have at 0.9650, the trend will then change from neutral to a downtrend.

 

[vicknic]

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs September, Week 4

This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX


Here’s the market outlook for this week:



EURUSD
Price Trend: Bullish

For this week and possibly next week, the trend is an uptrend. But on the longer term, the trend becomes neutral. Last week even in face of decreasing volatility on larger time-frames, prices remarkably rose above 1.1200 which is a crucial support line. 1.1250 and 1.1300 are next in line for the EURUSD to reach this week. To go past these price levels, there has to be aggressive buying of the currency pair by traders. This week the currency pair will actually find it difficult to fall below 1.1150 and 1.1100.


EURJPY
Price Trend: Bearish

There was a notable drop in the EURJPY last week as the currency pair dropped down under the demand zone located at 112.50 followed by prices pushing up. Yet the push up in prices was not convincing enough to buy the EURJPY. There is high chance prices could test the demand zones we have at 113.00, 112.50 and 112.00 across the next four days even the following week. The sole condition for the trend to change is prices rising up significantly by over 299 pips.

GBPUSD
Price Trend: Bearish

For now the major trend is a downtrend just as we had pointed out last week. The GBPUSD had dropped last week despite all attempts for the currency pair to rise up. For now it is not really advisable to open long trades owing to the present price action. It is not really safe to buy the pair for now owing to the fact that the trend for GBP pairs is still a downtrend. By the end of this week, we expect the pair to approach the territories located at 0.2900, 0.2850 and 0.2800.


USDJPY
Price Trend: Bearish

At the beginning of last week, there was consolidation of this currency pair, but then by mid week, the pair went down and then attempted to rise by Friday. If we look at the H4 and our D1 charts, what we see is a bearish confirmation pattern. This suggests that across the next four days, prices may even fall down further; even getting to the demand levels located at 100.50 and 100.00. The trend will change from being a downtrend when prices go above 104.00 which is a very significant support level. Although we don't really expect that to happen any time soon.


USDCHF
Price Trend: Bearish

On the short term, the trend for the USDCHF is a downtrend but on the longer term, the trend becomes neutral. Last week, prices dropped down falling below 0.9750 which is an important resistance level, approaching the support level located at 0.9700. Across the next four days, prices may fall down to touch 0.9650 even down as far as 0.9600- these are critical support levels. Traders will have to sell the USDCHF greatly for that to happen. Should the currency pair make an attempt this week to rise up, it will struggle to move above the resistance levels we have at 0.9750 and 0.9700.

 

[vicknic]

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs October, Week 1

This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX

Here’s the market outlook for this week:

EURUSD
Price Trend: Neutral

Nothing really big and notable occurred last week - the only thing worth noting is a brief movement of the EURUSD above 1.1250 which is a crucial resistance line and then fell under the support line we have at 1.1150. Across this week and even the next week, the trend is neutral. The trend will remain like this unless EURUSD prices go out of balance. If at all this happens, it certainly will not be next week. The trend for the month for a majority of EUR pairs is a downtrend, Thus it is very possible for the EURUSD to fall.

USDJPY
Price Trend: Neutral

Throughout last month, USDJPY has been majorly moving sideways. Should this continue, the long term trend would turn neutral. Still the chances are high that a trend could form for the USDJPY by Friday. This can turn out to be either an uptrend or a downtrend on the H4 chart.


GBPUSD
Price Trend: Bearish

Both the short term and even long term trend for the GBPUSD are downtrends. Last week, there has been sideways movement in the GBPUSD even with the Bearish Confirmation Patterns we had on the H4 as well as the D1 charts. For this week, the GBPUSD could decline; this could cause the currency pair to fall towards 1.2900, 1.2850 even down to 1.2800; all which are accumulation territories. Should there be a rise in GBPUSD, it is only a fake signal of an uptrend, thus it is a better time to sell. The accumulation territory located at 1.2950 at present has been great at keeping the GBPUSD from falling further although it will not hold the GBPUSD from falling much longer. The trend for the month is majorly a downtrend for the GBP, in fact the trend is also a downtrend for majority of GBP pairs.


USDCHF
Price Trend: Bearish

For now the trend, the trend is a downtrend; but may turn neutral on a longer term. Last week, the USDCHF made an attempt to rise but this was not really successful. Despite the fact that on the short term, the trend is a downtrend, the USDCHF could move above the resistance level located at 0.9750 only to fall to the support level located at 0.9650. On a positive note though, there could be an increase in momentum across the next four days.


EURJPY
Price Trend: Neutral

Just like we had for the USDJPY, last week the EURJPY have been moving sideways between the supply zone we have at 114.00 and the demand zone located at 112.50. Across the next four days, we could see an increase in momentum which could pull the EURJPY out of that range; even leading to either a downtrend or an uptrend in the short term.

 

[vicknic]

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs October, Week 2

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Here’s the market outlook for this week:

EURUSD
Price Trend: Neutral

For now the trend is still neutral (even in face of other pairs being very volatile last week). The EURUSD dropped down falling under the support level located at 1.1150. After that it rose up approaching the resistance level located at 1.1200. It is thus possible for the trend to continue being neutral next week. But then, we are expecting very good momentum in the near term.

For the trend to change from being neutral, it is very necessary for the EURUSD to break above 1.1350 which is a crucial resistance level. If this happens, the trend becomes an uptrend. On the other hand, the trend becomes a downtrend when prices fall below the support level located at 1.1050. For the next four days however, it is most likely that the trend for the EURUSD and even other EUR pairs would become a downtrend.


USDJPY
Price Trend: Bullish

Just like we predicted, prices had gone upwards last week rising by 280 pips. This puts an end to the previous equilibrium phase; as well as even testing the supply level which we have at 104.00. After this the USDJPY went down by 100 pips. The USDJPY finished last week dropping below 103.00 which is a significant supply level. This could be a nice avenue to buy the USDJPY in the hope that the currency pair could rise further. The trend for the USDJPY however still remains an uptrend. It is therefore reasonable that the USDJPY can rise by another 150 pips across the next four days.


GBPUSD
Price Trend: Bearish

For this week, there exists a very strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern for the GBPUSD - this also exists equally for other GBP pairs. Just according to our forecast last week, prices had fallen; falling drastically by over 890 pips even crashing down to a low of over 30 years in the region of 1.1993. It subsequently went on to pull back up to 1.2425, gaining back over 400 pips. As to the future of the GBPUSD, it is possible prices will further rise up. But if this happens, it will not even change the long term trend from being bearish.


USDCHF
Price Trend: Bullish

The trend on the longer term is neutral. But if we look at the shorter term, we see that the trend is an uptrend. Early last week, the USDCHF sprang up only to crash down by Wednesday, followed by attempts to go up on Thursday but still fell down again by Friday. Despite the sound chances that the USDCHF may rise up again, it is really unlikely that prices may rise as far as 0.9900.


EURJPY
Price Trend: Bullish

In similarity to the USDJPY last week, the currency pair went up; such that it tested the supply zone located at 116.00. After this, it fell by 90 pips. For now, there is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. In face of this, we may see more gains from the currency pair across the next four days.

Considering this, the EURJPY may rise up to 116.50 or even 115.50; all which are important supply zones.

 

[vicknic]

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs October, Week 3

This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX


Here’s the market outlook for this week:


EURUSD


Price Trend: Bearish


Last week, prices went down by over 210 pips. This decline brought EURUSD down below 1.1000 which is a resistance line. The decline even pushed the EURUSD towards the support line located at 1.0950. From what we see for this week, EURUSD may continue its decline falling down towards 1.0900 which is another crucial resistance line; but this may not happen quickly. For now the trend remains a downtrend, thus should prices rise up; it is simply a better opportunity to close an already open position.


EURJPY

Price Trend: Bearish



For some time now, there has not really been any notable short-term movement. But if we get more observant, we see that the trend is more of a downtrend. The chances of the EUR rising are low for the notable weakness of the EUR. For now, prices are under 114.50, which is a supply zone. The EURJPY may even test the demand zones we have at 114.00 and 113.50 across the next four days. The trend however will clearly become an uptrend if prices push up as far as 116.00.



GBPUSD


Price Trend: Bearish



There was a serious decline in the GBPUSD across last week. This heavy drop pulled the GBPUSD down particularly last week Tuesday to a big low of 1.2088. For this pair, the trend remains a downtrend across this week and even still a downtrend on the longer term. So once there is an end in this consolidation in the GBPUSD we have now, we most likely should be seeing a further drop in this pair. But this doesn't completely mean prices wouldn't pull up at all. But then the chances are low that any increase in the pair would change the trend from a downtrend. Next week, we could be seeing increased movement in GBP pairs.


USDJPY


Price Trend: Bullish


This market didn't pull back from its uptrend as prices continued moving upwards. Prices attempted breaking above the supply level located at 104.50; although it failed, prices may still attempt this again this week. We may see some decline in the USDJPY, but they will definitely not be enough to change the trend from an uptrend. What will confirm that the trend has changed is when the USD suffers a decline and falls below 102.00 which is a very significant demand level.


USDCHF


Price Trend: Bullish


The USDCHF made a remarkable increase last week. This increase pushed prices up to 0.9900, a resistance level; but prices struggled to rise any higher. However for this week, there may be a different turn due to the pressure from many traders buying the pair. If this happens, 1.1000 will be the next resistance level the USDCHF may be pushing for. Across the next four days, chances are higher that the USDCHF will keep rising while the EURUSD goes down.

 

[vicknic]

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs October, Week 4


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Here is the market outlook for this week:



EURUSD


Price Trend: Bearish


The EURUSD suffered a fall of 100 pips last week. This decline amounts to a fall of more than 300 pips counting from October 10. This resulted in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern. Across the next four days, the trend for most EUR pairs is a downtrend. With this in mind, this week we could be seeing a gradual decline in the EURUSD. The pair could fall down as much to touch 1.0850 and 1.0800; both of which are support levels. However, should prices go up for the EURUSD, it is simply a better chance to sell.



USDJPY

Price Trend: Bullish


Last week, there was sideways movement in the USDJPY. But across the next four days, we expect the pair to rise. This is because this week, the trend for most JPY pairs is an uptrend; thus it becomes very possible for the pair to rise up touching 104.50, 105.00 and even 105.50. This could result in a strong Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the H4 chart. On the other hand, the supply levels located at 103.00 and 102.50 will contribute greatly in preventing any major decline in the USDJPY.



GBPUSD


Price Trend: Bearish


There were small gains in the GBPUSD early last week. But by Friday, there was more of sideways movement in the pair. According to what we had predicted, there is high chance of increased volatility on GBP pairs than we had last week. This we expect would put a stop to the consolidation we are having now with increasing momentum. Across the next four days, we expect most GBP pairs to make gains but these gains may not be enough to change the trend from a downtrend.



EURJPY

Price Trend: Bearish


Following the 170 pips decline in the EURJPY last week, the trend became a downtrend. One big reason why the trend is a downtrend for now is the euro losing strength. The EURJPY would only increase if the Japanese yen loses further strength.



USDCHF


Price Trend: Bullish


Last week, a very significant siege was seen at 0.9900.This very point (0.9900) was previously a resistance level which has turned a support level of late. We had suspected correctly that breaking that level was not going to come easily, but then by October 20, we saw the USDCHF break above it owing to how strong the US dollar was. The pair managed to close last week Friday above the support level now located at 0.9900. This was after the USDCHF had tried to push above the resistance levels we have at 0.9950. Across the next four days, we expect further upward movement from the pair. This is more likely in face of the growing weakness of the CHF and a strengthening US dollar. There is also a high possibility that other currencies will push up against the CHF but for the USDCHF, we don't really expect much upward movement this week.