Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs

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Weekly outlook on Major pairs

October 2nd - 6th

EURUSD
Last week the pair dropped 200 pips, falling below the support line at 1.1750 and then rose to 1.1800. This week Monday, the pair turned lower during Asian session as it was weighed down by the outcome of the disputed referendum on Catalonia independence in Spain. Also, the pair’s slide at the start of this month could be due to growing prospect of another Fed Hike in December.

Further slide is expected following a bearish confirmation pattern. The pair inability to sustain above 1.1800 handle and further selling pressure could lead to extension of the corrective slide.
So targets for this week are the support lines at 1.1800, 1.1750 and 1.1700.

Key Levels: R1- 1.1818, R2- 1.1829, R3- 1.1843. S1- 1.1800, S2- 1.1750, S3- 1.1700


GBPUSD
The pair was on a bullish trend during the month of September, but a bearish correction last week makes it more likely to be bearish this week on the short term. This pair remained firm below the 1.3400 handle with little trade action in the market. With the growing conviction of a possible Fed rate hike in December, the dollar looks stronger against its major counterparts. The Pound now looks to the release of manufacturing PMI prints from the US and UK for some direction.

On the technical side, a clear break through the mentioned hurdle, currently near the 1.3400 handle, should lift the pair back towards an important hurdle near mid-1.3400s marking 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2790-1.3657 up-move.

Key Levels: R1- 1.3409, R2- 1.3422, R3- 1.3441. S1- 1.3376, S2- 1.3357, S3- 1.3343


USDCHF
The pair is currently showing a bullish outlook and is likely to continue its trend this week as EURUSD falls further. USD should gain strongly around the end of October to overcome any indecision. USDCHF remains below the 0.9772 August high and a close above this price would confirm a base market.

Key Levels: R1- 0.9695, R2- 0.9705, R3- 0.9713. S1- 0.9676, S2- 0.9668, S3- 0.9658



AUDUSD

Last week, the AUDUSD fell to 0.7799, pushing the 14 day RSI into a bearish region. This is the lowest the pair has been since the middle of July. The Aussie and dollar were both weighed down by different facts such as the unwinding of save haven longs in Gold and Fed’s Yellen Hawkish comments respectively. Fed’s Yellen comments gave the public a hint that the Fed is no longer depend on data to proceed with the hike.

If the Pair fails to hold above the downward slopping weekly 200-MA, a bearish trend will begin. However, there is hope for a positive turn out as retails sales are seen rebounding 0.3% m/m in August and trade surplus has widen from 460M to 875M.

Key Levels: R1- 0.7841, R2- 0.7857, R3- 0.7865. S1- 0.7833, S2- 0.7825, S3- 0.7817


USDJPY

The USDJPY made a remarkable gain in September, taking over 450 pips. What happens with the U.S economy will largely determine what happens to the pair this month. According to analysts at BBH, “USDJPY has advanced to levels that may prove difficult to breach. The MACDs and Slow Stochastic are getting stretched. Initial support is seen around JPY112.00 and then JPY111.50.” A positive USD will see the pair continue to appreciate, while a weakness in the USD may trigger a reversal up to 200pips.

Key levels: R1- 112.60, R2- 112.88, R3- 113.04. S1- 112.49, S2- 112.33, S3- 112.21

 

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Profiforex Weekly outlook from October 8th - 13th

EURUSD
It is a slow week for the EURUSD, as the Japan holiday keeps the majors on a tight angle and the EURUSD kept at the 1.1730 level. There was no high impact news during the weekend that could move the market. Technically, the pair is stuck at 1.1730 below a bearish 20 SMA and technical indicators shows that it is heading south within negative territories. With more downside expected this week, any rallies will offer good opportunities to place a SELL order at a higher price.

Key Levels: R1- 1.1738, R2- 1.1754, R3- 1.1764. S1- 1.1732, S2- 1.1722, S3- 1.1716.


USDCHF

The USDCHF gained about 100 pips last week, but started this week on a calm manner. It is currently losing 0.08%, trading at 0.9790. Technically, the pair seems to be on a strong bullish trend and will maintain that trend this week. It has crossed the resistant level at 0.9800 but closed below it on October 6. The daily RSI indicator remains above the 50 mark, which means the pair is ready for further rise in the short term.

Key Levels: R1- 0.9785, R2- 0.9792, R3- 0.9797. S1- 0.9774, S2- 0.9768, S3- 0.9762

USDJPY
The pair made a remarkable gain and hit a high of 113.25, and easily took out the resistant level at 113.43. However, the move was only for a short term, as the price dropped sharply from the high.
Despite consolidating throughout last week, the outlook remains bullish. The short-term consolidation will end if price breaks the supply level at 114.00 (strengthening the existing bullish bias) or drops below the demand level at 111.00 (threatening the current bias).

Key levels: R1- 112.72, R2- 112.88, R3- 113.09. S1- 112.36, S2- 112.15, S3- 111.99.


GPBUSD
The pair has dropped 470 pips in the last 2 weeks and now moving toward the accumulation territory at 1.3050. This week Monday, the pair entered into a corrective level and is exhibiting more strength. Its RSI is bullish and pointing higher, although the pair continues to face fundamental pressure on the correction. Bearish movement is less likely to continue this week as accumulation territories at 1.3000 (a strong level), 1.2950, and 1.2900 are tested, but a significant rally may occur before the week runs out.

Key Levels: R1- 1.3095, R2- 1.3107, R3- 1.3117. S1- 1.3073, S2- 1.3063, S3- 1.3051.

 

[vicknic]

Weekly Forex Forecast For major Currency Pairs.

October 15th - 20th


EURUSD

A correction occurred on Friday after price went up. The EUR/USD pair started the week with a soft tone amid political jitters affecting the common currency. A bearish Trend was formed close to the resistant level at 1.1870, which prevented further gains. The recent failure near 1.1880 was important since a crucial bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1870 on the 4-hours chart acted as a barrier for buyers. The most important support is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1669 low to 1.1879 high at 1.1770.
Movement above the resistance line at 1.1900 will strengthen the current bias, while movement below the support lines at 1.1750 and 1.1700 will result in a bearish bias. The outlook for the EURUSD is bearish this week.

Key Levels!: R1- 1.1822, R2- 1.1828, R3- 1.1836. S1- 1.1809, S2- 1.1800, S3- 1.1795


GBPUSD

The pair gained more than 210 pips last week and there is still a buy signal with a bullish confirmation pattern this week. So, further gains are expected. The GBPUSD has been oscillating between 50% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3657-1.3027 recent slide. It would be very wise to wait for a solid break through the said levels before entering any position. The bullish trend is likely to continue unless the accumulation territories at 1.3150 and 1.3100 are breached.

Key Levels: R1- 1.3309, R2- 1.3330, R3- 1.3348. S1- 1.3271, S2- 1.3253, S3- 1.3232


USDJPY

Recent outlook for the pair indicates a bullish trend in the long-term and bearish in the short-term. The USDJPY fell to a low of 111.69 on Friday but closed just above the 200-DMA level of 111.80. Today the bulls tried to take control of the pair during the Asian session, but the mood is still bearish.
The China’s production price data has a direct bearing on the inflation expectations in the U.S and other countries that partner with China. For example, it is the rebound in the Chinese PPI inflation in July/August 2016 that got the reflation trade going back in July/August 2016. Trumpflation was merely an icing on the cake. So an uptick in the Chinese PPI could lift the USD/JPY pair, however technical studies indicate a minor blip to 111.00 levels is likely in the short-run.

Key Levels: R1- 111.99, R2- 112.10, R3- 112.22. S1- 111.75, S2- 111.64, S3- 111.52



USDCHF

This pair is unpredictably bullish, as no significant movement was seen last week, apart from a 50 pip drop. It is trading within an uptrend channel at 0.9712, last week’s low. There is a short term buying interest, which means the bullish trend will continue for a short while. Key support can be found at 0.8986, January 2015 low. Technical indicators are still pointing to a long term bullish bias. Movement will be determined by what happens to EURUSD; any sign of weakness may maintain the current bullish outlook, otherwise a steady decline can be expected this week.

Key Levels: R1- 0.9753, R2- 0.9761, R3- 0.9767. S1- 0.9739, S2- 0.9733, S3- 0.9725.


EURJPY

Last week, the pair climbed higher to test the supply level at 113.50, but later lost about 120 pips on Thursday. If the price continues on its initial up trend, a bullish bias will be formed soon enough since the demand levels from 131.00 to 132.00 will try to impede any further bearish formations. On the downside, the bias will change if price goes below the demand zone at 131.00.

Key Levels: R1- 131.50, R2- 131.61, R3- 131.90. S1- 131.20, S2- 131.34, S3- 131.40

 

[vicknic]

Weekly Forex Forecast For Major Currency Pairs

November 5 - 10.

EURUSD

The pair made some gains from Monday to Wednesday then declined on Friday. The outlook of the EUR looks bearish and will likely continue till the end of the week. So the support lines at 1.1600, 1.1550 and 1.1500 should be tested, and the resistance lines at 1.1700 and 1.1750 will limit any rallies. However, immediate resistance is now pegged near the 1.1630 region, support-turned-resistance, and any subsequent recovery attempts might now be capped near the 1.1660-65 zones.

Key Levels: R1- 1.1667, R2- 1.1726, R3- 1.1750. S1- 1.1574, S2- 1.1550, S3- 1.1481


USDCHF
The pair had a brief spike down to 0.9948 on Friday but hastily recovered its poise and finished the week at parity, having briefly reached 1.0024.
No further important movement was seen last week, but bullishness was maintained and price closed above the psychological level of 1.0000. Technical indicators are looking positive generally, which makes the outlook for this week bullish. The pair could text the resistant levels at 1.0050, 1.0100 and 1.0150 in the next two weeks.

Key Levels: R1- 1.0050, R2- 1.0100, R3- 1.0150. S1- 0.9960, S2- 0.9914, S3- 0.9882.



GBPUSD

The pair gained 160 pips last week following Friday’s US jobs report, but ended the week at 1.3075 after testing the distribution territory at 1.3300. There was further price decline, but the accumulation territory at 1.3000 was able to hold. The GBPUSD now has a bearish outlook and in other instances, it is neutral. This week, a break of Fridays low of 1.3038 would see the pair move toward the 1.3023/3000 levels and could head lower to 1.2980.

Key Levels: R1- 1.3083, R2- 1.3127, R3- 1.3222. S1- 1.3033, S2- 1.2989, S3- 1.2938.


USDJPY

The pair began the week with a spike to fresh nearly eight-month high at 114.73. Overall, technical indicators remains bullish and favors final break higher and test of next targets at 115.00 (round-figure) and 115.50 (10 Mar high).

Key Levels: R1- 114.05, R2- 114.46, R3- 115.27. S1- 113.65, S2- 113.24, S3- 112.84

 

[vicknic]

Weekly Forex Outlook on Major Currency Pairs

(November 26 - December 1)

EURUSD

The pair shot up by 210pips last week and closed above the support and resistant line at 1.1900 and 1.1950 respectively. Meanwhile, doubts that the Fed may be able to deliver further interest rate increases, on concerns over stubbornly low inflationary pressure, kept the US Dollar bulls on the defensive and further collaborated to the pair's strong up-move. The outlook on the EURUSD is bullish for December and the resistance level at 1.2000 should be reached next month.

Key Levels: R1- 1.1972, R2- 1.2013, R3- 1.2080. S1- 1.1863, S2- 1.1796, S3- 1.1755



USDCHF

There was further decline on the USDCHF last week, especially Friday when it fell to 0.9785. The pair has dropped about 220 pips this month and 100 of those were lost last week. This has created a confirmation bearish pattern. With the daily momentum indicators pointing increasingly lower, a sustained break of 0.9785/0.9800 would allow a run towards 0.9725/30 and then to 0.9700/05.

Key Levels: R1- 0.9804, R2- 0.9822, R3- 0.9865. S1- 0.9779, S2- 0.9761, S3- 0.9736.


GBPUSD

Friday’s gain helped the pair reach a price of 1.3359 and this has created a bullish signal. With this ongoing momentum, traders are hoping the pair would push up to the distribution territories at 1.3350, 1.3400, and 1.3450. GBPUSD seems to be unfazed by the ongoing Brexit negotiations that saw UK PM, May in Brussels trying to beat out a deal with Donald Tusk.

Key Levels: R1- 1.3350, R2- 1.3400, R3- 1.3450. S1- 1.3288, S2- 1.3242, S3- 1.3206.



USDJPY

The Pair has lost nearly 300p pips since the start of this month as it tested the supply level at 114.50 on November 6. It now targets the supply levels at 111.00, 110.50 and 110.00. Only firm break above 200SMA would sideline bearish threats while return and close above daily cloud top is needed to neutralize and signal higher base formation.

Key Levels: R1- 111.77, R2- 111.96, R3- 112.27. S1- 111.00, S2- 110.50, S3- 110.00

 

[vicknic]

Weekly Forex outlook on Major Currency Pairs

Dec 10 - 15


EURUSD

Last week saw the pair lose more ground leaving risk of more declines on the table. It moved briefly below the support line at 1.1750 and then closed above it on Friday. The EURUSD might be weaker this week with resistant level at 1.1850, where a cut through it will open the door for more upside toward 1.1900 levels. Support lies at the 1.1750 level and any break below it will see it move to 1.1700 level. The support lines at 1.1700 and 1.1650 may be tested this week subject to strong selling pressure.

Key Levels: R1- 1.1784, R2- 1.1804, R3- 1.1831. S1- 1.1737, S2- 1.1710, S3- 1.1690


GBPUSD

Last week Friday, the pair reached an early European high at 1.3529 in reaction to the news of a Brexit breakthrough. This surge was followed with a heavy sell as traders took profit causing the pair to fall to a low of 1.3353. After the NFP report was released, the pair moved up to 1.3432 and 1.3399. The bullish bias look very week due to the events that occurred last week.

Movement below the accumulation territory at 1.3250 will result in a bearish signal being generated, but movement above the distribution territory at 1.3550 will strengthen the recent bullish signal, which we are likely to see this week.

Key Levels: R1- 1.3422, R2- 1.3588, R3- 1.3655. S1- 1.3323, S2- 1.3256, S3- 1.3157


USDJPY

The US wage data may have been disappointing, but the pair hit a 4 week high in early Asia session on Friday. This move could also have been inspired by the news of a Brexit breakthrough. The pair rose to 113.63 November 14 high. Friday’s released data showed that the NFP added 228,000 jobs in November, while hourly wage rose 2.5%.

There is speculation that the BOJ is likely to cut its ETF purchases soon, and this could strengthen the Yen. This week, the pair remains neutral, but a test of 113.80 would not be surprising. The supply levels at 114.00 and 114.50 are also targeted.


Key Levels: R1- 113.93, R2- 113.93, R3- 114.25. S1- 113.16, S2- 112.84, S3- 112.62


USDCHF

Last week Friday, the pair stalled its bullish trajectory near the 0.9975/80 region and lost some of its gains after a mixed US jobs data. Traders were forced to take some profits off the table and this added more pressure on the pair to slow down. It moved the resistance level at 0.9950 last week and then closing below it on Friday. The pair looks strong and set to continue its positive run this week. The resistance levels at 1.0000 and 1.0050 may be tested this week, but a fall remains highly likely due to possible strength in CHF

Key Levels: R1- 0.9944, R2- 0.9999, R3- 1.0019. S1- 0.9909, S2- 0.9889, S3- 0.9854

 

[vicknic]

Weekly Forex Forecast on Major Currency Pairs- Profiforex
Dec 17 - 22

GBPUSD

The pair is still very weak despite the latest Brexit news that a next phase will commence. However, this can only happen as from march next year, sparking a selling pressure on the pair. Also an attempted uptick in the dollar made the GBPUSD register some losses.

Technically, the pair continues to find strong buying interest near the 1.3300 handle and hence, traders are likely to wait for a decisive break through the mentioned support before positioning for any subsequent weakness. Movement towards the accumulation territories at 1.3300 and 1.3250 will help strengthen that view, but movement above the distribution territories at 1.3450 and 1.3500 will pull it back.

Key Levels: R1- 1.3417, R2- 1.3506, R3- 1.3564. S1- 1.3270, S2- 1.3212, S3- 1.3123


EURUSD
The pair ended the week with minor losses after jumping beyond the 1.1800 on Friday. This week, it managed to catch some fresh bids and bounced back above mid-1.1700s. The USD faces pressure from the news of a possible Government shut down if the spending limit is now extended beyond December 22. This has created an opportunity for the support lines at 1.1700 and 1.1650 to be tested this week. Selling pressure is possible throughout December.

Traders now look forward to the final Euro-zone CPI print, due for release during European trading session, for some fresh impetus ahead of this week's important US macro data - final GDP growth figures, durable goods orders and core PCE price index

Key Levels: R1- 1.1795, R2- 1.1835, R3- 1.1857. S1- 1.1732, S2- 1.1710, S2- 1.1670


USDJPY
Last week the Pair made unpredictable movements, but started to move down on Wednesday before closing above the demand level at 112.50. The USJPY seems to be on a neutral ground which can only end once the price breaches either the demand level at 111.50 or the support level at 112.50. This might not occur this month.

Key Levels: R1- 112.89, R2- 113.19, R3- 113.62. S1- 112.16, S2- 111.73, S3- 111.43


GBPJPY
Lokking at this pair from a short term view, it looks bearish, while on the long term it is neutral. The pair has lost more than 200 pips so far. Demand levels at 149.00 and 148.50 are now being targeted. The GBPJPY could reach these targets this week.

Key Levels: R1- 150.91, R2- 151.78, R3- 152.53. S1- 149.30, S2- 148.55, S3- 147.68

 

[vicknic]

Weekly Forex Forecast on Major Currency Pairs
Jan 7th - 12th, 2018.

EURUSD

Last week the Euro suffered from the disappointing EU CPI which supports the view that markets remain under positioned long term relative to the markets overwhelming bullish sentiment. The EURUSD is eyeing the 1.2000 level and a breakthrough could trigger a correction toward 1.1900. The overweight short-term speculators and fast money positioning suggests the market could be susceptible to an early 2018 squeeze lower.

Key Levels: R1- 1.2077, R2- 1.2100, R3- 1.2140. S1- 1.2014, S2- 1.1985, S3- 1.1950


GBPUSD

Despite Friday's mixed results from the US monthly jobs report, a goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields, amid growing expectations for a March Fed rate hike move, underpinned the greenback demand and contributed towards capping the pair below the 1.3600 handle.

Traders now look forward to the release of UK Halifax HPI data and Fedspeak for some fresh trading impetus. The key focus, however, would be on this week's US inflation figures, which along with other important macro releases would help investors determine the pair's next leg of directional move

Key Levels: R1- 1.3593, R2- 1.3618, R3- 1.3653. S1- 1.3593, S2- 1.3498, S3- 1.3473.


USDJPY
On Friday the pair reached 113.30 and then consolidated above 113.00 for the balance of the session.
A short-term “buy” signal was generated on Friday that makes further gains possible. The chart remains flat on the long term, so there might be further sideways trade within the broad 112/114 range, which might be reached this week. However, there exists the risk of a large pullback on JPY pairs.

Key Levels: R1- 113.41, R2- 113.71, R3- 114.07. S1- 112.76, S2- 112.40, S3- 112.10


GBPJPY

The pair broke above the 153 handle on Friday followed by a Strong bullish Activity last week. The 153 level has been an important price for the pair. Since this level was previously breached, although pulled back to 152, the market could see more upside movement above 153. We could also expect to see a bearish correction if the price pushes higher than 163.

Key Levels: R1- 153.86, R2- 154.25, R3- 154.83. S1- 152.89, S2- 152.31, S3- 152.92

 

[vicknic]

Weekly Forex Forecast on Major Currency Pairs
January 21st - 26th


EURUSD
The pair made a limited run toward higher prices last week. Last week’s consolidation kept movement between the resistance line at 1.2300, whereby a cut through would expose the 1.2400 level. Support line lies at 1.2200 and a lower move would open door to the 1.2050 level. The EURUSD is bullish and pointing higher this week.

Key Levels: R1- 1.22721, R2- 1.2323, R3- 1.2349. S1- 1.21941, S2- 1.2167, S3- 1.2117.


AUDUSD

AUDUSD is still trading at close to 0.8000, after reaching a Friday high of 0.8038 but then turning lower, under pressure from sales of AUDJPY. A late US selloff saw it close on session lows at 0.7985. The longer term uptrend remains firmly intact, although the daily charts warn of a correction, with the appearance of some bearish divergence and a long upper wick forming on the daily candle. It is a fairly light data calendar this week and a long w/e in Australia on Friday so external factors will drive price action. Right now a neutral stance seems best.

Key levels: R1- 0.8026, R2- 0.8057, R3- 0.8073. S1- 0.7978, S2- 0.7962, S3- 0.7931



GBPUSD

The Pair had a good time last week as it hit a new post Brexit high at 1.3944, but fell shortly after to 1.3838. Sterling has now climbed to about 400pips since January 11. A very strong selling pressure would see the pair overturn its bullish bias. The 4 hour momentum indicators are now turning lower, while the longer term charts still generally look positive, but Cable remains volatile so caution is warranted. Buying dips seems to be the theme still, but, with a relatively tight SL placed back below 1.3800.

Key levels: R1- 1.3927, R2- 1.3991, R3- 1.4035. S1- 1.3819, S2- 1.3775, S3- 1.3711


USDJPY

The pair saw a shallow rally last week, and this gave traders a good opportunity to go short. It is very possible that the pair will decline further this week due to the US Government shutdown, which will affect the USD negatively. Therefore, the demand levels at 110.50, 110.00 and 109.50 may be reached.

Key levels: R1- 111.11, R2- 111.45, R3- 111.76. S1- 110.46, S2- 110.15, S3- 109.81