Forex Market Commentary By TitanFX

[titanfx]

NZDUSD - Next Leg Higher Underway In Kiwi Dollar
Key Highlights
· New Zealand dollar spiked higher vs the US Dollar recently and traded above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

· The NZDUSD pair also broke a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart to open the gates for more gains.

· In the US, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be released by the Markit Economics today, which is forecasted to post a minor rise in May 2016.

· Chinese Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) posted a reading of 50.1 in May 2016.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis
The New Zealand Dollar after dropping towards the 0.6680 vs the US Dollar found support, and started to correct higher. During the upside move, the NZDUSD pair managed to clear a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart.

Moreover, the pair also broke the 100 and 200 hourly simple moving average. All these signs clearly suggest that the pair is doing well and may gain further in the near term.

If we look at the wave structure, then there is a chance of the pair heading towards the 1.618 extension of the last drop from the 0.6765 high to 0.6674 low. On the downside, the 100 hourly SMA may be act as a support area if the pair moves down.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

EURJPY – Euro Poised For Next Move Vs Japanese Yen
Key Highlights
· Euro remained in a downtrend vs the Japanese yen and may continue to face selling pressure.

· There is a monster contracting triangle formed on the daily chart of the EURJPY pair, which may provide us the next break.

· Japanese Gross Domestic Product released by the Cabinet Office posted a growth of 0.5% in Q1 2016, compared with the forecast of 0.5%.

· Japanese Current Account released by the Ministry of Finance posted a trade surplus of ¥1,878.5B in April 2016, compared with the forecast of ¥2,318.9B.

EURJPY Technical Analysis
The Euro faced a lot of heat vs the Japanese yen recently and traded below the 123.00 support area. If we look at a higher time frame chart like daily, then the EURJPY pair is clearly in a downtrend.

There is a crucial contracting triangle formed on the daily chart of the EURJPY pair, which may play a major role for the Euro in the near term. There may be swing moves in EURJPY once it breaks the pattern.

Recently, the pair tested the 50% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 124.18 high to 120.75 low where it found sellers. So, there is a chance that the EURJPY pair may trade down moving ahead and test the triangle support area. The daily RSI is below the 50 level, which is a sign that the Euro sellers are in control at the moment.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

USDJPY – Dollar Likely To Hit Fresh Lows Vs Yen, Eyes Fed
Key Highlights
· US Dollar continued to weaken versus the Japanese yen, and may post further losses in the near term.

· The daily chart of USDJPY is signaling a clear downtrend, and suggesting that the pair may trade towards 104.00.

· Today in the US, there is a major release, as the Fed interest rate decision will be announced.

· The forecast is of no change in the rates from 0.5%, and the market will be eyeing the statement for more details.

USDJPY Technical Analysis
The US Dollar suffered a lot of losses against the Japanese yen recently, as there was a continuous downtrend in USDJPY which is clearly visible on the daily chart.

There is a bearish trend line formed on the daily chart of USDJPY, which is acting as a barrier for an upside and pushing the pair down.

On the downside, the next target of sellers looks like around the 1.236 extension of the last leg from the 105.53 low to 111.38 high. The daily RSI is well below the 50 level, which is a sign that more losses are possible in USDJPY.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

EURJPY - 118.40/60 Is Significant Resistance For Upside
Key Highlights
· Euro after trading as low as 115.50 against the Japanese yen recovered, but found sellers near 118.40/60.

· There are a couple of bearish trend lines formed on the 4-hours chart of EURJPY, acting as a resistance area.

· Today in the Euro Zone, the Consumer Confidence will be released by the European Commission, which is forecasted to decline from -7 to -7.1 in June 2016 (preliminary).

· In the US, the Existing Home Sales figure will be released by the National Association of Realtors, which is forecasted to increase by 1.1% in May 2016.

EURJPY Technical Analysis
The Euro this past week fell sharply and traded towards the 115.50 level against the Japanese yen where the buyers appeared to prevent the downside move. The EURJPY pair is currently recovering, but facing resistance near 118.40/60.

There are a couple of bearish trend lines formed on the 4-hours chart of EURJPY, acting as a major resistance and preventing gains.

As long as the pair is below the highlighted trend lines, it may continue to move down and might test 117.00.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

GBPJPY – A Look At The Big Picture
Key Highlights
· British Pound recent slide against the Japanese yen got extended, as the GBPJPY pair moved below 140.00.

· During the recent downside move, the pair broke a major support trend line on the monthly chart, which is a sign that it was a crucial move.

· Today in Japan, the Retail Trade released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry posted a decrease of 1.9% in May 2016, compared with the forecast of -1.6%.

· In the UK today, the Consumer Credit figure will be released by the Bank of England, which is forecasted to come in at £1.400B.

GBPJPY Technical Analysis
The British pound after the Brexit news collapsed against most major currencies, including the Japanese Yen. If we look at a higher time frame chart like monthly, then there was a trend line break for GBPJPY.

The pair also moved below the 100 and 200 monthly simple moving averages, suggesting that the British Pound were in control and may take the pair further down.

Currently, the pair is trading near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last leg from the 116.94 low to 196.05 high, which is providing support to GBPJPY.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

GBPUSD – Post Brexit Impact Continues On British Pound

Key Highlights
· There was no relief for the British Pound, as it continued to weaken against most major currencies.

· The GBPUSD pair created a new low this week, and looks set for a test of the 1.2800 handle.

· Earlier, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price Index was released, which came in at -2% in June 2016.

· In the US today, the Trade Balance figure will be released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis
The British Pound was under a lot of bearish pressure against the US dollar, as it continued to weaken. There is a bearish trend line formed on the 4-hours chart of the GBPUSD, which acted as a resistance and pushed the pair down.

Moreover, the pair also broke the last swing low of 1.3120 to trade below 1.3000. The pair is likely heading towards the 1.618 extension of the last wave from the 1.3225 low to 1.3977 high, which is at 1.2760.

The H4 RSI is around the oversold levels, but it may hardly matter considering the current market sentiment and situation.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

NZDUSD – Increased Bullish Bias For Kiwi Dollar
Key Highlights
· The New Zealand dollar enjoyed a decent upside move against the US Dollar and looks set for more upsides.

· There is a critical support formed on the downside for the NZDUSD pair in the form of a bullish trend line on the hourly chart.

· New Zealand Food Price Index (FPI) released by the Statistics New Zealand posted a change of 0.4% in June 2016.

· Later today, the BoC Interest Rate Decision will be announced by the Bank of Canada, which may ignite some moves in the Canadian dollar.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis
The NZDUSD pair recently traded above the 0.7300 level, and posted a new weekly high of 0.7324. It looks like the pair is in an uptrend and may continue to move higher.

As mentioned, there is a major bullish trend line on the hourly chart, which acted as a support earlier and might continue to act as a barrier for sellers.

The pair is currently trading near the trend line, so we need to keep a close eye on it. Only an hourly close below the 100 hourly simple moving average may call for a change in the trend.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

AUDJPY – Double Top In Making For Aussie Dollar?
Key Highlights
· The Aussie dollar traded higher against the Japanese yen, but facing a major resistance on the upside.

· There is also likely a double top pattern forming on the 4-hours chart of the AUDJPY pair.

· Today in Australia, the Westpac Leading Index was released by the Melbourne Institute.

· The market was not expecting any major rise in the index in May 2016, and the outcome was negative, as there was a decline of 0.20%.

AUDJPY Technical Analysis
The Aussie dollar recently climbed higher to trade near the last high of 81.50 against the Japanese where it found sellers again. It looks like the AUDJPY pair is setting up a short-term top as there is a double top pattern forming on the 4-hours chart.

Currently, the pair is attempting to close below a bullish trend line formed on the same chart. A successful close may call for more declines in the near term.

The next support on the downside can be around the 200 simple moving average (4-hours chart).

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

AUDUSD – Can Aussie Dollar Retain Bullish Bias?
Key Highlights
· The Aussie dollar finally found bids near the 0.7440 support area against the US dollar.

· There was a major bearish trend line break noted on the hourly chart of the AUDUSD pair.

· In Australia, the Consumer Price Index was released by the RBA and republished by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

· The forecast was lined up for a rise of 0.4% in the CPI in Q2 2016, and the outcome was as forecasted.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis
The Aussie dollar after trading as low as 0.7440 against the US Dollar found support and recover. The AUDUSD pair is currently trading positive, but can it retain the bullish bias?

The pair during the recent recovery broke a major bearish trend line break noted on the hourly chart, and also closed above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

However, the pair is currently struggling near the 200 hourly SMA, and failed once to close above it. I think buying dips can be considered as long as the pair is above the 100 hourly SMA.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

EURJPY – Euro Continues To Tumble Versus Japanese Yen
Key Highlights
· The Euro traded down against the Japanese yen and looks set for more losses in the near term.

· There was a contracting triangle pattern formed on the hourly chart of the EURJPY pair, which was broken to clear the way for more declines.

· In the Euro Zone, the PMI service will be released by the Markit Economics, which is forecasted to remain at 52.7 in July 2016.

· Moreover, the Euro Zone Retail Sales will be released by the Eurostat, which is forecasted to increase by 1.7% in June 2016.

EURJPY Technical Analysis
The Euro declined recently against the Japanese yen and broke the 114.00 support area. It looks like the EURJPY pair remains a sell if it manages to recover in the short term.

There was a contracting triangle pattern formed on the hourly chart of the EURJPY pair, which was cleared recently and ignited a move towards the 113.00 level.

The pair is currently correcting higher, but may face sellers near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 114.81 high to 113.00 low.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

USDJPY – US Dollar Under Renewed Selling Pressure
Key Highlights
· The US Dollar after trading as high as 102.65 against the Japanese Yen found sellers.

· The USDJPY pair moved down, and broke a minor support trend line formed on the hourly chart.

· In Japan today, the New Machinery orders, released by the Cabinet Office posted a rise of 8.3% in June 2016, compared with the forecast of 3.1%.

· The Japanese Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index released by the Bank of Japan posted no change in July 2016, compared with the forecast of -0.1%.

USDJPY Technical Analysis
The US Dollar enjoyed a decent upside move against the Japanese yen recently to trade near 102.65. However, the USDJPY pair later found sellers and trade down. Can the current losses extend in the short term?

During the recent downside move, the USDJPY pair broke a minor support trend line formed on the hourly chart. The pair also closed below the 100 hourly simple moving average, which is a bearish sign.

It looks like the pair is under a lot of selling pressure and may head towards the last swing low of 100.90.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

GBPUSD – British Pound Awaits Employment Report For Next Move
Key Highlights
· British Pound after declining below 1.2900 versus the US Dollar found bids and recovered.

· There was a major bearish trend line formed on the 4-hours chart of the GBPUSD, which was broken during the recent upside move.

· Today in the UK, the Claimant Count Change, Rate and ILO Unemployment Rate will be released by the National Statistics.

· The forecast is slated for change of 9.5K in July 2016 in the Claimant Count compared with the last 0.4K.

GBPUSD Pair Technical Analysis
The British Pound was under attack versus the US Dollar, as it traded below 1.2900 before starting a recovery. Can the GBPUSD pair continue to recover or will it face sellers?

As mentioned, there was a major bearish trend line formed on the 4-hours chart of the GBPUSD, which was cleared by the GBP bulls. It is a positive sign, but there are other resistances waiting on the upside to act as a hurdle, including the 100 simple moving average (H4).

It may depend on the incoming data how the GBP performs. I feel there is a chance of a test of 100 SMA in the short term.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

AUDUSD – Aussie Dollar facing Significant Resistance At 0.7700
Key Highlights
· The Aussie dollar after trading as low as 0.7580 against the US Dollar started recovering.

· There is a major bearish trend line waiting on the 4-hours chart of the AUDUSD pair to act as a resistance.

· Today during the Asian session, the Australian Construction Work Done report was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

· It came in at -3.7% in Q2 2016, whereas the market was expecting a decline of 1.9%.

AUDUSD Pair Technical Analysis
The Aussie dollar after trading as high as 0.7750 against the US Dollar moved down. The AUDUSD pair is currently attempting to recover, but it may find resistance on the upside.

On the upside, there are a couple of important hurdles. First, there is a major bearish trend line on the 4-hours chart of the AUDUSD pair. Moreover, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.7749 high to 0.7583 low may also act as a resistance.

On the downside, the most important hurdle is around the 200 simple moving average. Overall the pair may find sellers on the upside around the trend line where one may consider selling.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

GBPJPY – British Pound Looks Set To Gain Further Pace
Key Highlights
• The British Pound traded higher recently versus the Japanese yen and may continue to gain pace.
• There is a crucial ascending channel pattern formed on the 4-hours chart of the GBPJPY pair, which is helping buyers.
• The Japanese Industrial Production preliminary report was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry earlier today.
• It posted no change in July 2016, compared with the forecast of an increase 0.8%.

GBPJPY Pair Technical Analysis
The British Pound after testing the 129.00 support zone versus the Japanese yen traded higher and recovered well. It looks like the GBPJPY pair may continue to head higher in the near term.

As mentioned, there is a crucial ascending channel pattern formed on the 4-hours chart of the GBPJPY pair. It is acting as a catalyst for the current bullish trend and helping buyers. However, on the upside, there is a major resistance near the 200 simple moving average, which is also around the 50% Fib retracement level of the drop from the 139.91 high to 129.07 low.

The GBP pair may correct a few pips in the near term, but the channel support may come into play in that case to protect a downside break.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

AUDJPY – Aussie Dollar Trend Overwhelmingly Bearish Vs Japanese Yen

Key Highlights
• The Aussie dollar after a solid uptrend versus the Japanese yen, started moving down sharply.
• There was a monster bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the AUDJPY pair, which was broken during the recent downside move.
• Today in Australia, the Gross Domestic Product was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
• The forecast was slated for an increase of 0.6% in Q2 2016, but it came in at 0.5%.

AUDJPY Technical Analysis
The Aussie dollar enjoyed good gains this week against the Japanese yen, as the latter one was under a bearish pressure. Later, the AUDJPY pair found sellers and started a downtrend and may continue to decline moving ahead.

The AUDJPY pair recently traded below the 78.00 support and currently struggling to find buyers. The pair also closed below the 100 hourly simple moving average, which is a bearish sign.

It looks like there are more declines left and the pair may head towards the last swing low of 77.08, as it already broke the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 77.08 low to 79.13 high.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

GBPUSD – British Pound Sights UK Employment Report For Recovery

Key Highlights
• British Pound was seen under a bearish pressure this week against the US Dollar.
• The GBPUSD pair weakened, and traded below a bullish trend line on the 4-hours chart.
• Today in the UK, there is a major economic release, as the Claimant Count Figure will be published by the National Statistics.
• The UK Claimant Change is forecasted to post an increase of 1.6K in August 2016, compared with the last change of -8.6K.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis
The British Pound faced a lot of sellers recently versus the US Dollar, which pushed the GBPUSD pair down. If the upcoming UK Employment report disappoints, there can be more declines.

The pair traded as high as 1.3440 recently, where sellers stepped in and push the pair down. During the downside move, the pair broke a bullish trend line on the 4-hours chart. Moreover, the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2865 to 1.3440 high was also cleared.

If the pair corrects higher from the current levels, then the same broken trend line on the H4 chart may act as a resistance and defend the upside move.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

EURJPY – Euro Trend Overwhelmingly Negative Vs Yen; Fed Next

Key Highlights
• The Euro nosedived against the Japanese yen recently and formed a bearish trend.
• The EURJPY pair during the downside cleared a major bullish trend line on the 4-hours chart.
• Today, the Japanese Merchandise Trade Balance Total released by the Ministry of Finance posted a trade deficit of ¥-18.7B in August 2016.
• The Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance came in at ¥340.0B in August 2016.

EURJPY Technical Analysis
The Euro faced a lot of selling pressure lately and traded down towards 113.50 versus the Japanese yen. The EURJPY broke several important supports to establish a downtrend in the short term.

The EURJPY pair also settled below the 100 simple moving average on the 4-hours chart, which is a signal of things to follow. There was also a break below a major bullish trend line on the 4-hours chart.

So, if the EURJPY pair corrects higher from the current levels, then the same broken trend line might provide offers. Moreover, the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 116.08 high to 113.45 low may also act as a resistance.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

AUDJPY – Aussie Dollar Remain Range Bound Vs Japanese Yen

Key Highlights
• The Aussie dollar after dropping towards 76.00 against the Japanese yen recovered.
• However, the AUDJPY pair remained in a range formed on the 4-hours chart.
• In Australia, there was a speech by the RBA Assist Gov Edey, which made no major impact on the AUD.
• In China, the MNI China Business Sentiment Indicator was released, which posted a stable outlook for Sep 2016.

AUDJPY Technical Analysis
The Aussie dollar after trading as high as 79.13 against the Japanese yen started a downtrend until it found support near 76.00. The AUDJPY pair is currently recovering, but remains range bound.

As it can be seen in the 4-hours chart of AUDJPY, there is a range pattern formed. On the upside, an important range resistance is near 77.40. Both the 100 and 200 simple moving averages are positioned near it.

Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 79.13 high to 75.97 low is also around the same range resistance. So, it won’t be easy for the Aussie dollar buyers to break it. On the downside, the 76.00 handle is providing strong bids. Until there is a break in AUDJPY, we may continue to see range moves.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

EURJPY - Key Factors Suggest Euro Is In Bullish Trend

Key Highlights
• The Euro traded above 114.80 versus the Japanese yen, and currently looks set for more gains.
• There was a short-term bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURJPY pair, which was broken during the upside.
• Today, the Euro Zone PMI service reading will be released by the Markit Economics, which is forecasted to decline from 52.1 to 52.0 in September 2016.
• The Euro Area Retail Sales figure will also be released by the Eurostat, which is forecasted to decline by 0.3% in August 2016.

EURJPY Technical Analysis
The Euro climbed higher recently versus the Japanese yen and closed above a crucial resistance of 114.80. The EURJPY pair is trading positively, and may continue to trade higher.

During the upside move, the pair broke a bearish trend and the 1.618 extension of the last drop from the 114.18 high to 112.60 low. So, there are chances of a move towards the 2.236 extension of the same wave.

The hourly RSI is the bullish zone, and signaling more gains in the near term, as long as the pair is above 114.80.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

USDJPY – Can US Dollar Continue Uptrend Vs Japanese Yen?

Key Highlights
• The US Dollar traded above the 103.00 handle against the Japanese yen, and broke a major resistance.
• There was a crucial bearish trend line formed on the daily chart of the USDJPY pair, which was cleared by the Dollar bulls.
• Today in Japan, the Machinery New orders, released by the Cabinet Office posted a decline of 2.2% in August 2016, compared with the forecast of a 5.5% decrease.
• Today in the US, the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes will be published, which may impact the greenback.

USDJPY Technical Analysis
The US Dollar surged higher vs the Japanese yen to register a daily close above 102.00. This puts the USDJPY pair on a path for more upsides in the near term.

There is a major technical point to note from the daily chart of the USDJPY pair. There was a bearish trend line, connecting all the recent swing highs. It was broken during the recent upside, which is a signal that the US Dollar buyers are here to stay.

Currently, the pair is finding sellers near the 100-day simple moving average. A break above it could take the pair towards the 1.236 extension of the last drop from the 104.32 high to 100.12 low.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'