Forex Technical Analysis EUR/USD by IFC Markets

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis USD/JPY 2013-09-23

Downside bias has already driven the currency pair lower in today’s trading and as the falling trend line suggests the pair could go even lower towards support at 61.8% of 97.75 to 99.66, at 98.50. At that level, we observe previous lows as well as the 200 SMA, thus appears to be a strong support.

Looking at the oscillators, MACD is neutral fluctuating around zero line but Stochastic is entering oversold area with limited free space to the negative side, therefore we cannot anticipate much downside today and tomorrow. Furthermore, in the longer term a symmetrical triangle is forming with lower highs and higher lows which could provide a direction and target price on the breakout.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis USD/JPY 2013-09-23

Downside bias has already driven the currency pair lower in today’s trading and as the falling trend line suggests the pair could go even lower towards support at 61.8% of 97.75 to 99.66, at 98.50. At that level, we observe previous lows as well as the 200 SMA, thus appears to be a strong support.

Looking at the oscillators, MACD is neutral fluctuating around zero line but Stochastic is entering oversold area with limited free space to the negative side, therefore we cannot anticipate much downside today and tomorrow. Furthermore, in the longer term a symmetrical triangle is forming with lower highs and higher lows which could provide a direction and target price on the breakout.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis USD/CAD 2013-09-24

In the longer term we can observe that the penetration of the “failure swing” neckline at 1.0241 was not credible since in the weekly chart did not close below that level, instead it bounced back above that creating a spike. We could consider this as a “bear trap” in the daily chart or a fake break in the weekly chart as it is shown below.

SMA 50 provided support to the currency pair and induced it to return back up failing to close also below surging trend line in the weekly. MACD remains above zero line reinforcing the weakening up trend, whle OsMA is bearish but near previous troughs line. We would expect the pair to remain above the support at 1.0180 unless we have another round of substantially negative news for US dollar, with next resistance target at 1.0341.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis EUR/USD 2013-09-25

Upper Bollinger band weighed on the currency pair coupled by overbought Stochastic and Commodity Channel Index being above 175 line, thus resistance line was drawn at 1.3562. Prices have retreated afterwards reaching almost support at 1.3450, increasing validity to uptrend pattern and previous bullish breakout.

At the moment CCI has a downward direction and OsMA is declining after reaching previous peaks line suggesting bearishness, however key support at 1.3450 make as cautious to further lows. In our consideration corrective move could go lower in the immediate term towards 1.3372 but we are cautious on that since medium term outlook is bullish thus we prefer to wait for upside resumption either at 1.3450 or 1.3372.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis AUD/USD 2013-09-26

The currency pair was overextended up as was indicated by OsMA and Stochastic, thus it eventually drew a resistance line at 0.9505 and then softened to support at 0.9332. Oscillators have reset from overbought zones and therefore they do not hurdle resumption of the upside.

The “double bottom” trading pattern formed between 0.9230/0.8841 range suggests that the medium term trend has reversed to positive. First target at 161.8% Fibonacci extension around 0.9464 achieved and now potentially looking towards 261.8% level however before that the 50.0% of 1.0578 to 0.8841, at 0.9707 may place a lid on prices.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis USD/CHF 2013-09-30

Downside bias remains strong with prices sliding early on Monday to fresh eight-month low at 0.9022 and drawing a support line there with the lower Bollinger also placing a downside hurdle. Moreover, prevailing trend is negative as indicated by the falling trend line.

Looking at the oscillators, MACD is below zero confirming weakness of the price pattern while there is now indication of contrarian signals. Therefore we would expect prices to continue under selling pressure and likely to make a new low in the following trading, heading towards 261.8% of 0.9083 at 0.9136, at 0.8992.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis USD/JPY 2013-10-01

Surging trend line was breached in earlier trading increasing potential for weakness in the currency pair. In addition, prices formed a “failure swing” pattern with neckline at 97.74 with 100 and 50 SMA weighing on prices, however today they returned back above the 97.74 underpinned by some macro events.

Concerning oscillators,MACD dropped into negative territory and RSI (14) is down trending suggesting downside bias. We consider that negative sentiment has strengthened although bulls still hold their ground due to recent return above the “failure swing” neckline.

Our opinion based on technical signs lean towards downward enhancement toward 96.79, where the 161.8% of 97.74 to 99.66 is also nearly located coupled by 200 SMA.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis USD/CAD 2013-10-02

Upside bias drove prices to resistance where 50 and 100 SMAs consolidate just below the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0563 to 1.0180, at 1.0363. Previously we saw the currency pair forming a near double top pattern and breaching neckline at 1.0243 but now the pair has climbed back to 1.0340, providing signs that is trading in a wide range.

Looking at oscillators, Stochastic has been in earlier trading in the overbought zone providing a mild contrarian signal, coupled by SMAs weighing on prices and MACD being negative suggesting negative trend. However, MACD has crossed its signal line from below, partially offseting its bearishness. We consider chances are favoring in the immediate term reversal to negative bias and shifting focus toward 1.0243.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis EUR/USD 2013-10-03

The currency pair rose to fresh 8-month peak after breaching cap at 1.3562 yesterday. Rising structure remains strong as indicated by surging trend lines with the most recent trend line being steeper suggesting upside is strengthening. Moreover, as you can observe all SMAs remain below prices not even providing any indication of short-term reversal.

Concerning indicators, Commodity Channel Indexis upwardly moving rising above 100 and still has room until previous crests line. In addition, ADX indicates that bullish trend is strong and valid.

Therefore, we would expect the EURUSD to continue its upside toward 161.8% of 1.3450 to 1.3101, at 1.3661, followed by next resistance at 1.38.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis AUD/USD 2013-10-04

The AUDUSD found support at 0.9278 where the 100 SMA is located and resumed its upside as we have expected and currently is moving towards cap at 0.9527. Tentative surging trend line is indicating that positive structure is more likely to continue.

Our view that the pair would initially reach resistance 0.9527 and then likely to breach it targeting 161.8% of 0.9527 to 0.9278, at 0.9679 is also backed by oscillators. Stochastic is rising confirming upside coupled by Commodity Channel Index growing higher than its zero line and heading towards 100 line.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis USD/CHF 2013-10-07

Negative bias strengthened in earlier trading due to risk appetite gradually fading, leading the currency pair near support at 161.8% of 0.9145 to 0.9457, at 0.8954. On Friday we saw a bounce up as prices approached a key support level but also due to investors hoping to a breakthrough of U.S. fiscal deadlock.

Falling trend line together with all SMAs being above prices suggest that downward trend is valid, which is confirmed by Average Directional Index. However, the CCI creates some concerns due to falling below -80 line but there is still room to go lower while Stochastic does not provide any contrarian signal.

Therefore in our view bearish bias would resume and is likely to breach support at 0.8954 ahead of next downside hurdle at lower Bollinger band around 0.8863.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis GBP/USD 2013-10-08

Valid surging trend line indicates that the currency pair positive structure is more likely to continue coupled by SMAs being below prices. Moreover, prices have recently found resistance at 1.6263 near 161.8% extension of 1.6162 to 1.5948, at 1.6300, thus we consider the 1.6300/1.6263 a cap zone.

The Average Directional Index confirms the strength of the positive structure however the short-term OsMA and RSI(14) suggests that the bias is negative. We conclude that prices are more likely to retrace even lower towards rising trend line at 1.5948 before we see attempt to resume upside.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis USD/JPY 2013-10-09

The currency pair downward structure seems damaged by the near term bullish “failure swing” that drove to resistance near the 50 SMA at 97.46. The down trend though still appears strong with a valid falling trend line providing a natural resistance coupled by upper Bollinger band at 97.75.

Concerning oscillators the Commodity Channel Index rose above previous peaks line at 180, OsMA approaches our subjective upper level of previous highs, while MACD is still negative even though above its signal line.

Thus, we consider the USDJPY would probably be limited by resistance at 97.46 or even by higher cap at 97.75 before retreats to surging trend line, we also expect narrowing of the trading range due to potential triangle formation.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis USD/CAD 2013-10-10

The Canadian dollar weakened against the greenback with the USDCAD currency pair edging at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0563 to 1.0180, at 1.0415. In the longer term we saw a double top formation, breaching neckline at 1.0243, followed by a “bear trap” formation which introduced rising prices.

Observing oscillators, the RSI(14) is positively structured confirming rising prices, while CCI is deep into overbought zone exceeding 200 line creating concerns over bullish potentials but is not confirmed by Stochastic.

In our view, the combination of key Fibonacci cap at 1.0415 with extreme up CCI limits substantially chances for higher prices in the immediate term although we expect in the medium term the pair to head towards the top of 1.0608/1.0243 range.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis AUD/USD 2013-10-14

Tentative soaring trend line is still valid indicating growing development keeps its potential for higher prices. Double bottom trading pattern as well as 100 and 50 SMAs are below prices and moving towards a Golden Cross, all that increase chances for a bull ran. Nonetheless, prices seem unable to reach resistance at 0.9527 as they are extending into consolidation around 0.9463 in the near term.

OsMA is now turning into positive ground strengthening the price pattern signals for upside possibilities, backed by a short-term RVI that is growing and remains above its smoothing line. Thus, in our opinion chances are favoring further highs for the AUDUSD.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis USD/CHF 2013-10-15

The negatively structured currency pair has found support at 0.8954 in the last two weeks and bounced up limited by cap at 0.9145 which was previously support. Prices have breached short-term SMA but are now creating doji candlesticks around 20 SMA with 50 SMA still way above.

Short-term oscillators are suggesting downside resumption as the Stochastic entered the overbought zone in a down trending market indicating that buyers have likely lost their power, confirmed by Williams percent range that have also rose into overbought territory and is now crossing -20 line from above.

Interestingly though, breaching key resistance at 0.9145 could create a reversal pattern in the lower time frame, coupled by bullish RSI(14), shifting focus to 0.9291. Thus we would be watching closely USDCHF development.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis GBP/USD 2013-10-16

The longer term resistance zone at 1.6335/1.6253 where previous peaks formed, drove the pair below 20 and 10 SMA at 23.6% of 1.4828 to 1.6253, at 1.5919. In the last two weeks a possible reversal also increased downside chances, however surging trend line remains solid as prices failed to breach support at 1.5919, backed by 50 SMA providing an extra support at 1.5805.

Looking at the oscillators, RSI(14) has correctly provided a bearish divergence as prices consequently declined but at the moment is neutral. Stochastic has dipped to oversold zone and then crossed the 25 line heading higher suggesting resumption of the positive bias, while OsMA is currently at previous troughs line recommending being contrarian on the downside.

Therefore, we consider prices more likely not to continue lower than 1.5919 in the immediate term but rather to attempt to lift towards 1.6253.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis USD/JPY 2013-10-17

In the longer term we have plotted a potential symmetrical triangle shape which increase chances of continuation of the last year’s initiated up trend. We would be watching the falling and surging trend lines and upside breaching would confirm theory. On the contrary downside break would increase bearish chances but we would seek for more indications to follow.

In the intraday, bias is to the downside and should the 97.72 fail to hold it then we expect prices to move as low as 97.21. MACD is below zero although above its signal line suggesting that upside could easily resume providing credibility to support at 97.21. Stochastic is bearish since it just retreated from overbought zone but OsMA does not confirm that.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis USD/CAD 2013-10-18

Recently established bearish structure drove prices to support at lower Bollinger band at 1.0279 and in the intraday has extended in sideways between 1.0299/1.0279. Downtrend has increased chances for lower ground although risk of NFP may hold the USDCAD in that consolidation zone until Tuesday.

MACD confirms negative structure of the price pattern since it is below zero and lower than its signal line. However, the Stochastic is bullish amid has just escaped oversold territory and heading upward while RSI(14) is declining but just dropped below 30 line, providing us conflicting signals.

In our opinion, chances favor the bears although we are cautious since we are ahead of major employment report.

 

[mohmed-tarek]

thanks for the analysis
but i think the EUR should break the support levels at 13662 13645 to be able to continue in the down trend on the coming period as you can see on the chart