Forex Technical Analysis EUR/USD by IFC Markets

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis EUR/USD 2013-10-21

Positive structure in the currency pair remains strong with recent lift to 10-month peak at 1.3701. Prices are also waving above the SMAs increasing further bullish chances confirmed by rising trend line.

The Average Directional Index confirms the price pattern by indicating strong upside. However, we have the first weakness signal by Relative Vigor Index, bearishly diverging from price arrangement, suggesting that a corrective dip could be on the way but no contrarian expression justifies that.

Therefore, in our view we favor further upside by breaching 1.3700 and heading towards 161.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3751 but we remain cautious on reversal from current level ahead of tomorrow’s NFP report.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis AUD/USD 2013-10-22

The currency pair has been consolidating just below 161.8% Fibonacci extension of 0.9535 to 0.9278, at 0.9678 with longer term structure being bullish. Moreover, the 100 and 50 SMAs formed a golden cross increasing chances for further highs.

Looking at the oscillators, MACD confirms the positive price pattern, however the Stochastic at extreme peaks suggesting being contrarian although not confirmed by OsMA.

In our opinion prices have serious chances to rise above cap at 0.9678 and head for 0.9943 nonetheless overbought Stochastic raises some concerns while NFP report later today could trigger a corrective move.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis USD/JPY 2013-10-25

The currency pair is testing the surging up trend line at 97.00 of a potential symmetrical triangle pattern. According to the theory the triangle is a continuation pattern thus the uptrend line could hold prices and induce them to test falling trend line at 99.00 since previous trend was up. However, in case of falling below 97.00 we would consider it a reversal pattern favoring downside.

Oscillators have limited capabilities since trading range has narrowed significantly in recent trading. Nevertheless, MACD is below zero as well as lower than its signal line and RSI(14) is down trending, both reinforcing weakness chances.

We consider it very interesting to watch USDJPY’s development and we would take the opportunity to follow any breach of the surging trend line at 97.00 since it could be an early signal of a longer term downtrend establishment. Due to high risk strategy we use tight risk/reward ratio.