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[Fresh Forex]

BY A BOOTSTRAPS. RATE CUT BY CHINA'S CENTRAL BANK

Dear clients,

China's central bank unexpectedly cut its key rate for the second time in three months on Tuesday, signalling again that the country's authorities are stepping up efforts to ease monetary policy to stimulate a faltering economic recovery.

Analysts said the move opened the door for a possible cut in China's benchmark lending rate next week.

Market watchers said slower credit growth and higher deflation risk in July necessitated additional monetary easing measures to stem the slowdown in the economy, while default risks of some housing developers and a payment miss by a private asset manager also affected confidence in the financial market.

The People's Bank of China said it cut the rate on one-year medium-term loans worth 401 billion yuan ($55.25 billion) to some financial institutions by 15 basis points to 2.50% from 2.65% previously.

The medium-term rate serves as a benchmark for the benchmark rate, and markets largely use the medium-term rate policy as a precursor to any changes in credit benchmarks. The monthly fixing of the base rate is due next Monday.

The central bank also lent 204 billion yuan in seven-day reverse repayment deals, lowering borrowing costs by 10 basis points to 1.80% from 1.90% earlier, it said in an online statement.

China remains an exception among global central banks as it has loosened monetary policy to support a stalled economic recovery, while other countries are in a tightening cycle struggling with high inflation. Tuesday's rate change widened the yield gap with other major economies, particularly the U.S., putting pressure on the yuan and risking capital outflows.

FUTURES SECURED. COINBASE' LEGAL TRIUMPH.

Dear clients,

Coinbase Global announced on Wednesday that it has received permission to offer cryptocurrency futures to retail customers in the United States, in a major victory against a lawsuit by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The move will allow Coinbase to offer bitcoin and ether futures directly to eligible US customers. Until now, only the company's institutional clients have been able to trade such products.

Coinbase shares rose 3% to $81.55 after receiving approval from the National Futures Association (NFA), a separate regulatory organisation authorised by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

"This is a critical milestone that reaffirms our commitment to operating a regulated and compliant business," Coinbase said in a statement.

The company has openly criticised the SEC, which in a June lawsuit accused Coinbase of illegal activity because it failed to register as an exchange.

CEO Brian Armstrong also said that an unfriendly regulatory environment could cause more U.S. cryptocurrency companies to go offshore, and SEC Chairman Gary Gensler's coercive approach could stifle innovation in the industry.

The NFA approval, which came nearly two years after Coinbase's filing, could allow the company to enter a largely untapped market.

The global derivatives market accounts for nearly 80% of the entire cryptocurrency market, and bets on futures and other leveraged derivatives are often the cause of volatility in the broader market.

MORE CURRENCIES, WIDER OPTIONS

Dear clients,

Trading is becoming even more convenient, our set of available currencies in which you can deposit and hold an account has received a major update:

National currencies: Malaysian ringgit (MYR), Nigerian naira (NGN), Tanzanian shilling (TZS), Kazakhstani tenge (KZT) and South African rand (ZAR)

The list of cryptocurrencies has also been expanded. All presented options are sought-after coins with high capitalisation:

Cryptocurrencies: Tether (USDT), Litecoin (LTC), Ripple (XRP), Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Binance Coin (BNB), Cardano (ADA)

Deposit in the way that suits you!

HOUSE DIVIDED. FED MEETING MINUTES

Dear clients,

At the US Federal Reserve meeting held on July 25-26, opinions on the need for further interest rate hikes were divided: "some participants" pointed to the risks to the economy from excessive rate hikes, while "most" policymakers continued to favour fighting inflation, according to the minutes of the meeting published on Wednesday.

"Participants remained determined to bring inflation down to the target level of 2%," said the minutes of the meeting, at which Federal Open Market Committee policymakers unanimously decided to raise the benchmark overnight interest rate to a range of 5.25%-5.50%. "Most participants continue to believe that inflation is subject to significant upside risks, which may warrant further monetary tightening".

However, cautious views on the implications of further monetary tightening played a more prominent role in the discussion at last month's meeting, suggesting a widening spread of views at the Fed as policymakers weigh the evidence of lower inflation and assess the potential damage to jobs and economic growth if rates are raised more than necessary.

The group also "discussed a number of risk management considerations that could affect future policy decisions," the minutes said. While the majority of the panel acknowledged inflation as the main risk, "some participants noted that while economic activity had been resilient and the labour market remained strong, downside risks to economic activity and higher unemployment remained."

Overall, the minutes said, Fed policymakers agreed that uncertainty remained high and that future interest rate decisions would depend on a "body of" data that would arrive in the "coming months" that would "help clarify the extent to which the disinflation process continues," which could signal a more patient approach to further increases in borrowing costs.

 

[Fresh Forex]

THRILL RIDE: BITCOIN'S EXTRAORDINARY FALL

Bitcoin's extraordinary fallBitcoin hit a new two-month low on Friday, breaking out of its recent narrow range amid a wave of negative sentiment sweeping global markets.

Bitcoin fell 7.2% last Thursday, the biggest one-day drop since November 2022, when the leading FTX exchange collapsed.

It then fell to a two-month low of $26,172 in Asian trading on Friday, the lowest since 16 June.

A wave of sell-offs gripped global markets, with major Wall Street indexes closing lower on Thursday and Asian stocks starting a third week of losses due to concerns about the health of China's economy and fears that US interest rates will rise longer given the economy's resilience.

Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, remained steady at $1,685.20, also falling sharply on Thursday.

Some analysts attributed the cryptocurrencies' fall to a Wall Street Journal report that Elon Musk's SpaceX sold its bitcoin holdings, writing down their value by $373 million. Musk is influential among crypto-enthusiasts, and bitcoin prices have previously fluctuated in response to his tweets.

Bitcoin has held near the $30,000 mark in recent months, gradually recovering this year after a sharp drop in 2022 when various cryptocurrency companies collapsed, leaving investors with heavy losses.

Cryptocurrency markets got a boost in June as BlackRock applied to launch a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US. Some investors took the move as a sign that the US Securities and Exchange Commission would approve applications to launch a spot bitcoin ETF from various asset managers, including Grayscale.

THE SUSPENSE OVER JACKSON HOLE

Dear clients,

A sharp rise in US Treasury yields is sending shivers through risky areas of the market, leaving investors wondering how bad the damage will be to a rally that has lifted everything from equities to bitcoin this year.

Strong economic growth has fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates for longer, pushing Treasury yields this month to their highest level since 2007. The rise has made it harder for holders of stocks and other speculative assets to ignore their gains, which have continued for most of the year even as yields have steadily risen.

The S&P 500 index lost 4% this month as the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose to a more than 15-year high of 4.35% on Monday. At the same time, the S&P 500 technology sector fell 5.7%, bitcoin fell more than 10%, and the ARK Innovation ETF, a bastion of many high-growth companies, fell 18.5%. Stocks generally rose on Monday, with the S&P 500 index up 0.7% for the day.

Rising Treasury yields, which change inversely with Treasury bond prices, can take the gloss off speculative assets by offering investors attractive payouts on investments that are considered essentially risk-free because they are backed by the U.S. government. Rising rates also raise the cost of capital in the economy, making it harder for everyone from individuals to companies to service debt.

The most important test for markets will be the annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole. On Friday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to give a speech on the economic outlook.

According to the latest weekly Refinitiv Lipper data, US investors were net sellers of equity funds for the third consecutive week in the seven days to 16 August. At the same time, they were attracted by strong returns in money market funds, which attracted about $32.5bn in the past week, the largest inflows since 5 July.

Investor positioning in the equity market fell for a fourth straight week to a two-month low, according to Deutsche Bank data.

However, bets against equities have been losing ground this year. Many investors believe equities will hold strong this year, which has seen them rebound from widespread fears of recession and turmoil in the banking sector. The S&P 500 index has gained 14.6% over the past year. Goldman Sachs strategists said Monday that the volume of stocks held by retail and institutional investors is below historical norms, suggesting the bull market may have additional fuel left if the economy remains strong.

EXPLORING THE NEW NATIONAL CURRENCIES

Dear clients,

More choices never hurt and just recently FreshForex introduced new Asian and African options. This time, we'll be checking out new national currencies.

Join us on August 23 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

If you missed the previous webinars, you can always find them here.

 

[Fresh Forex]

UNARTIFICIAL VALUATION: NVIDIA'S QUARTERLY REPORT

Dear clients,

Nvidia's strong quarterly earnings forecast met Wall Street's high expectations on Wednesday, sending a host of artificial intelligence-related stocks soaring and adding momentum to the stalled recovery of the U.S. stock market.

Following the signal, Nvidia shares jumped nearly 10% to a record high of $516, boosting the company's market value by about $110bn to $1.27 trillion and cementing its lead as the world's most expensive chip maker.

That came after the company posted a fiscal third-quarter earnings forecast that exceeded analysts' expectations, helped by growing demand for its high-end chips that power much of the world's major artificial intelligence technology.

Nvidia's additional $25 billion share buyback announced on Wednesday came amid a stock that has already tripled this year, making it the first trillion-dollar chip business in history, as investors bet Nvidia will be a key beneficiary of the artificial intelligence boom.

Everyone from AI startups to major cloud service providers such as Microsoft are keen to get their hands on more Nvidia chips. Demand from China is also on the rise, as companies there place rush orders to stock up on chips before further restrictions on U.S. exports take effect.

S&P 500 E-Mini futures rose 0.5% and Nasdaq E-Mini futures climbed 0.9%, suggesting Wall Street is likely to open higher on Thursday. Investors had been awaiting Nvidia's earnings report this week as a potential spark for renewed gains in the sluggish U.S. stock market.

Nvidia shares have more than tripled this year as the chipmaker is at the centre of a rally in technology stocks fuelled by optimism about the potential of artificial intelligence. Nvidia's forecast added to investor optimism. Following the report's release, the value of shares in big tech companies related to artificial intelligence increased by more than $70bn, in addition to the value of Nvidia's stock.

Nvidia expects third-quarter revenue to be around $16bn, plus or minus 2%. Analysts polled by Refinitiv on average expected $12.61bn.

FOOT OFF THE PEDAL. THE ECB AND THE COMING RATES

Dear clients,

According to eight sources with direct knowledge of the discussions, European Central Bank policymakers are increasingly concerned about the deteriorating growth prospects for the economy and, while the discussion remains open, the idea of holding off on rate hikes is gaining momentum.

The ECB has raised rates at each of its last nine meetings in a bid to rein in price growth, most recently on July 27 when it left open the choice of its next meeting in September, with policymakers divided between a pause and further tightening.

Talks with eight policymakers in Europe and on the sidelines of the US Federal Reserve's symposium in Jackson Hole suggest proponents of a "pause" are growing stronger after key economic indicators over the past six weeks have come in below expectations, suggesting a recession has become likely.

Several sources said the odds were evenly split between a rate hike and a pause, while some said a pause was more likely. But none of the sources said they thought a rate hike was the most likely outcome, even if that was their preference.

That's markedly different from six weeks ago, when a rate hike in September was still considered the most likely outcome. However, all sources agreed that even in the event of a pause, the ECB would have to make it clear that its work is not yet done and that further policy tightening may be needed.

They said it could take several months, possibly until early 2024, to be sure that eurozone inflation, now at 5.3%, is moving towards the 2% target.

The sources also agreed that the discussion remains open and nothing will be decided until the next inflation figure on August 31 and the ECB's new economic forecasts. The next ECB meeting will be held on September 14.

Markets are currently split between the chances of a rate hike in September and a pause, but expect the ECB to still go for a final rate hike of 25 basis points to 4% at some point later this year.

 

[Fresh Forex]

IN THE PURSUIT OF PROFIT. MARATHON OF VOLATILE INSTRUMENTS

Dear clients,

The market is frozen waiting for a new push, but is it a reason for us to slow down?

We are launching the volatility marathon; during the week you will be presented with a selection of the most profitable instruments that have already proved themselves in trading.

Signals will be published from 7:30 GMT on our social networks and Telegram channel.

Forwards to success!

"UNTIL THE JOB IS DONE." JEROME POWELL'S SPEECH IN JACKSON HOLE

Dear clients,

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Friday that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates once again to bring down still too high inflation and promised caution at upcoming meetings, noting both the progress made in easing price pressures and the risks posed by the unexpected strength of the U.S. economy.

While Powell's statements weren't as hawkish as a year ago at the annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, they were still quite sharp, and investors now see another rate hike before the end of the year as more likely.

"We will proceed cautiously in deciding whether to tighten policy further or, conversely, to keep the rate unchanged and await further data," Powell said in his keynote speech. "The Fed's objective is to bring inflation down to its 2% target, and we will do so."

The Fed has raised rates by 5.25 percentage points since March 2022, and inflation at the Fed's preferred rate has fallen to 3.3% from a peak of 7% last summer. While the decline was a "welcome development," Powell believes inflation "remains too high."

"We are prepared to raise rates further, if appropriate, and intend to keep policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving steadily downward toward our target," he said.

However, given "signs that the economy may not be cooling as expected," including "particularly strong" consumer spending and a "possible recovery" in the housing sector, Powell said that above-trend growth "could jeopardise further progress on inflation and warrant further monetary tightening."

His speech showed the Fed struggling with conflicting signals from the economy, with inflation reportedly slowing strongly without much cost to the economy — a good outcome, but one that raised the possibility that Fed policy is not tight enough to finish the job.

Unlike last year's closely watched speech at a conference organised by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City — in which Powell warned in stark terms of impending policy tightening — Powell did not talk about the coming "pain" for the public caused by further policy tightening.

But he also didn't make it clear that a rate cut was imminent, nor did he hint, as some policymakers have done, at the need to adjust rates downward once inflation becomes more sustainable.

At the end of the day, futures contracts tied to the Fed's discount rate estimated the probability of a rate hike in September at just under 20%, but the odds of the rate ending the year in the 5.5%-5.75% range, a quarter point above the current range, were higher than the 50% probability. The yield on two-year Treasuries ended the day at 5.08%, the highest since June 2007.

Powell said it is difficult to accurately gauge how high above the "neutral" interest rate the current base rate is, and therefore difficult to gauge how much the Fed is restraining growth and inflation.

Powell reiterated what has become the Fed's standard diagnosis of inflation progress: easing goods inflation and declining housing inflation are "on track," but concerns that continued consumer spending on a wide range of services and a tight labour market may make a return to 2% difficult.

Recent declines in measures of core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, "are welcomed, but two months of good data is just the beginning of what will be needed to build confidence in a sustained decline in inflation," Powell emphasised.

Although Powell's tone was not as harsh as last year, when he dispelled market perceptions in very blunt terms that the Fed at the time was nearing the end of its rate hike cycle and would cut rates before the end of this year. Nevertheless, it was clear that he did not want to discard any options.

Powell ended his remarks Friday with almost the same phrase he used last year in Jackson Hole: "We're going to keep at it until the job is done."

"ATTENDRE ET ESPÉRER". CHINESE STOCKS RALLY

Dear clients,

Chinese stocks led the rally in Asian equities on Tuesday as investors welcomed Beijing's efforts to support markets, while bonds rose and the dollar declined amid possible softening in U.S. data.

MSCI, the broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares besides Japan, rose 1%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng was up more than 2% and mainland China's blue chips (.CSI300) were up 1.5%.

In recent days, China has halved stamp duty on share trading, relaxed margin lending rules, slowed new listings and approved new retail funds, at least signalling a determination to stabilise the market.

And while foreign investors sold their shares on Monday on an initial bounce after the measures were announced over the weekend, they net bought about $500 million worth of Chinese stocks on Tuesday, perhaps in the hope that more substantial relief would follow.

"We doubt that these policies alone can change confidence or determine the direction of the market," Bank of America analysts said.

"Financial markets are merely a reflection of the underlying economy, and we need policies that can address the underlying economic fundamentals .... In our view, the next 2-3 weeks are still an important window for policy action."

Shares in Hong Kong were led by shares in China's struggling Country Garden and electric car maker BYD, which reported a threefold increase in first-half profit.

TIME TO COUNT THE CHICKEN. NON-FARM PAYROLL REPORT

Dear clients,

Nonfarm Payrolls report is the indicator that shows the change in the number of employed in the US non-farm sector. This time we'll be looking at the report, how it reflects on the market and the way to trade on it.

Join us on August 30 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

If you missed the previous webinars, you can always find them on our site.

 

[Fresh Forex]

SAVED BY THE GAVEL: BITCOIN'S STARK REVERSAL

Dear clients,

Bitcoin's gains from a U.S. court ruling bolstering the future prospects of funds targeting retail investors saved the cryptocurrency from a disappointing month and instilled renewed optimism about its long-term prospects.

The Securities and Exchange Commission's rejection of Grayscale Investments' proposal was "arbitrary and prejudicial", a federal court said Tuesday, giving the crypto asset manager a landmark victory.

The cryptocurrency surged more than 7% on the news, setting the course for its best day since March and cutting some of the heavy losses suffered over the summer.

Plagued by lower demand for risky assets caused by rising U.S. Treasury yields and a drop in volatility during quiet summer trading, bitcoin was on track for its worst month since November 2022 before the ruling, when confusion reigned following the liquidation of the FTX exchange. Its monthly losses are now around 5%.

Investors said Grayscale's victory will likely now factor into future SEC rulings on spot bitcoin fund ETFs filed by several major financial firms this year, including the world's largest asset manager BlackRock.

The emergence of spot bitcoin ETFs could help the cryptocurrency industry tap into a large amount of previously untapped funds from retail investors, which in turn would help boost the bitcoin price.

TRADING SIGNALS: NFP FOR AUGUST

Dear clients,

On September 1, we are expecting the publication of data on Nonfarm Payroll, a measure of U.S. manufacturing employment. The report significantly affects the movement of the US dollar and related instruments.

What indicators are expected this time, let's find out from our expert:

The leading employment indicators from ADP and ISM point to the release of weak Non-Farm Employment data, which is negative for the US dollar, as this situation allows the US Fed to keep interest rates at the current level. On Friday, consider selling USDZAR, USDCAD and buying AUDUSD, XAUUSD.

Get ready to harvest with 101% bonus!

CAUSE AND EFFECT: GRADUAL RECOVERY OF THE OIL MARKET

Dear clients,

Oil prices were about to break a two-week losing streak as they rose for the fourth consecutive session on Friday on the back of supply cuts and expectations that the OPEC+ group of oil producers will extend production cuts until the end of the year.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $83.84 a barrel, while Brent crude was up 26 cents, also up 0.3%, to $87.09 a barrel as of 0605 GMT. For the week, WTI is up more than 5% and Brent is up about 3%.

Analysts expect Saudi Arabia to extend a voluntary oil production cut of 1 million barrels a day for October, adding to cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

"We continue to expect production cuts to be extended and prices above $90 per barrel (on a sustained basis) will be required to attract OPEC supply to the market, as well as incentivize U.S. shale oil producers to increase drilling activity," National Australia Bank said in a client note on Friday.

U.S. crude inventories fell by a more-than-expected 10.6 million barrels last week, government data showed Wednesday. Commercial crude inventories have fallen by 34 million barrels since mid-July.

Traders and investors often view changes in U.S. inventories as a proxy for changes in the balance of global production and consumption, and spot prices and quotes may rise if inventories continue to deplete.

"Signs of increased demand have also been evident in the commodities market, with implied gasoline demand rising for the first time in three weeks," ANZ said in a research note on Friday.

A weakening US dollar, which looks set to end a six-week winning streak, also helped prices. A stronger dollar puts pressure on demand for oil, making the commodity more expensive for buyers holding other currencies.

A survey showing renewed growth in Chinese factory activity and Beijing's measures to support China's weakened housing market also helped boost oil prices on Friday as traders hoped it would stimulate demand in the world's second-largest oil-consuming country.

 

[Fresh Forex]

TWO BENEFITS FOR THE PRICE OF ONE: 101%+CASHBACK

Dear clients,

Summer is over, but that's no reason to be upset, because we have a hot offer for you.

From the 4th of September for new clients for the first deposit 101% cashback is also available.

Message the support team the promo code — HOT, choose the cashback plan that suits you, and get an additional bonus for your deposit.

More amount, more bonus, more benefits! Increase your volumes and get even more net profit.

Terms of promotion:

1. Within the framework of the promotion, new clients of the company can be eligible for a 101% bonus on the first deposit to the trading account with the Cashback promotion enabled.

2. You can take advantage of the offer within 7 days after registration with the company.

3. To participate in the promotion you need to:

3.1. Register and open a trading account;

3.2. Enable the Cashback promotion on your trading account in the Client Area;

3.3. Make a deposit from 101 USD;

3.4. Contact the personal manager with the code word HOT to credit the deposit bonus in the amount of 101%;

4. Bonus funds are used in accordance with the terms of the promotion Drawdown bonus 101%; crediting of spread refund in accordance with Cashback promotion terms.

5. In order to prevent abuse of the promotion terms and conditions, the Company reserves the right to refuse the client this offer without warning at any time at its discretion.

 

[Fresh Forex]

RATIO'D. UPDATED FORECASTS FROM MOODY'S

Dear clients,

Ratings agency Moody's on Friday raised its forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2023 but lowered its outlook for China next year, noting that while the risk of a U.S. recession has declined, China's problems are mounting.

"We have raised our forecast for U.S. economic growth to 1.9% in 2023 from 1.1% in our May forecast, recognising the strong underlying economic momentum," Moody's said in a report.

The agency, which is currently the only Big Three agency still holding a "AAA" rating for the U.S. after a downgrade by Fitch last month, maintained its 2024 economic growth forecast at 1%, saying high interest rates will drag on the economy.

"We believe it will be difficult for the Fed to achieve a sustained decline in inflation to the 2.0% target while current economic conditions persist," Moody's said in a statement. "In our view, several quarters of below-trend growth are needed to prevent overheating."

On the other hand, the agency said China faces "significant growth challenges" stemming from weak business and consumer confidence amid economic and political uncertainty, ongoing problems in the real estate sector and an aging working-age population.

Moody's maintained its growth forecast for this year at 5%, but cut its 2024 outlook to 4.0% from 4.5% previously. China's rating is at A1 with a stable outlook, four notches below the U.S.' top rating.

"Data from China suggest that the economic recovery from the prolonged zero-rate policy remains muted, as the momentum for renewed growth seen in March, April and May appears to be waning," Moody's said in the report.

"We believe low consumer confidence is restraining household spending, and economic and political uncertainty will continue to weigh on business decisions."

NO MIRACLE IN SIGHT. ECONOMIC DATA FROM CHINA

Dear clients,

Asian stocks fell on Tuesday as weak service sector data renewed fears of a faltering post-pandemic Chinese economy.

The MSCI was down 0.65% at 511.63, moving away from 515.37, the highest level since 11 August, which it reached on Monday.

Futures indicated that the gloomy mood is likely to spread to Europe, with the Eurostoxx 50 futures down 0.21%, Germany's DAX down 0.20% and the FTSE futures down 0.29%.

The recent rally in Chinese equities, fuelled by a series of government measures aimed at supporting the weakening economy, is quickly fading. The CSI 300 blue-chip index fell 0.58% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.5% after these markets recorded their best day in over a month on Monday.

Optimism quickly faded after a private sector survey on Tuesday showed that China's service sector activity grew at the slowest pace in eight months in August as weak demand continues to haunt the world's second-largest economy and stimulus measures failed to significantly revive consumption.

Nevertheless, investors are hopeful that Beijing's drip-feed of stimulus will be enough to stabilise the Chinese economy.

In a rare piece of good news for China's crisis-hit property sector, a source close to Country Garden said the company made interest payments on two dollar bonds just as the grace period was due to end on Tuesday.

On Friday, China's largest private property developer received approval from onshore creditors to extend a 3.9 billion yuan ($536 million) private bond.

WEEKLY OUTLOOK: BTC, ETH, XRP

Dear clients,

The world of crypto is seeing some hard ups and downs lately, with both Grayscale ETF approval and SpaceX dumping their crypto assets. This time, we'll be looking Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple, what's going on with them now and what may happen further on.

Join us on September 6 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

If you missed the previous webinars, you can always find them on our site.

 

[Fresh Forex]

GOOD NEWS, BAD NEWS. THE POWER MOVE OF DOLLAR

Dear clients,

Global stock indices were mostly down on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling along with Apple shares, while the US dollar rose after weaker-than-expected US jobless claims data.

Initial jobless claims in the states for the week ended September 2 unexpectedly fell to 216,000 from a revised 229,000 the week before. The latest week's reading was the lowest since February.

A separate report showed that US labour productivity in the second quarter was not as strong as previously announced.

The latest data confirmed the view that the US economy remains resilient and that US interest rates may have to be raised for a long time to come.

China's yuan fell to a 16-year low against the dollar amid falling property prices, weak consumer spending and reduced credit growth in the world's second-largest economy.

China's trade data released on Thursday, while not as dire as economists had forecast, still showed a nearly 9% drop in exports and a more than 7% drop in imports.

In Japan, traders continued to watch for intervention as the Japanese yen struggled to make a sustained breakout against the steady dollar.

The dollar had earlier hit its highest since November at 147.875 yen and was last down 0.4% to 147.20.

The dollar declined on Friday but still remains on track for its longest weekly winning streak in nine years, helped by a steady run of U.S. economic data that also called into question the end of the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike cycle.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against major currencies, was last down 0.1% at 104.93, but remained not far from the previous session's six-month high of 105.15. The index was on track to continue rising for the eighth consecutive week and is currently up 0.6%.

INVIGORATE YOUR TRADING WITH A POWERFUL DUAL OFFER

Dear clients,

We extend the summer and offer the hot promotion! Unprecedented benefit for new clients — activate Cashback and get 101% of the amount on your first deposit.

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Terms of promotion:

1. Within the promotion, new clients of the company can be eligible for a 101% bonus on the first deposit to the trading account with the Cashback promotion enabled.

2. You can take advantage of the offer within 7 days after registration with the company.

3. To participate in the promotion, you have to:

3.1. Register and open a trading account;

3.2. Enable the Cashback promotion on your trading account in the Client Area;

3.3. Make a deposit from 101 USD;

3.4. Contact the personal manager with the code word HOT to credit the deposit bonus in the amount of 101%;

4. Bonus funds are used in accordance with the terms of the promotion Drawdown bonus 101%; crediting of spread refund in accordance with Cashback promotion terms.

5. In order to prevent abuse of the promotion terms and conditions, the Company reserves the right to refuse the client this offer without warning at any time at its discretion.

LET'S TALK ABOUT ECB MEETING

Dear clients,

On September 14, the European Central Bank will hold meeting, it will provoke strong fluctuations on the financial markets.

We will tell you how to earn with this event and which instruments can bring the most profit, as well as how the meeting will affect the euro and European indices.

Join us on September 13 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

If you missed the previous webinars, you can always find them here.

 

[Fresh Forex]

ECB MEETING: WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE RATE?

Dear clients,

The next big event today is the ECB meeting. The European Central Bank is a global financial institution that regulates the entire Eurozone credit and financial policy. For this reason, the ECB Interest Rate Decision causes high volatility in the financial markets.

What will be the decision this time, and what instruments can be chosen? Our lead analyst says:

The ECB may keep the interest rate at 4.25% today and will signal to traders that it is ready to raise rates at the next meetings if necessary. Keeping rates at the same level is negative for the single European currency. Today, consider selling EURUSD, EURCAD, EURHKD.

It's a good time to top up with the 101% promotion: that way you'll have more funds to trade with.

DOUBLE BENEFIT WHEN TRADING BITCOIN!

Dear clients,

For two weeks, commission costs will be half off when opening Bitcoin trades (BTCUSD).

Until September 28, there is a 50% discount on spread and swap when depositing from $399. This is a great opportunity to earn more! Open trades intraday or for a longer term, you will save significantly either way.

In addition, you can save even more if you fund your account with cryptocurrency! We will credit 10% of the deposit amount without limit.

 

[Fresh Forex]

NEXT TO THE STAGE. BANK OF JAPAN MEETING

Dear clients,

In Asian trading on Monday, the US dollar barely moved, even sterling rose, but the yen fell as a Japanese holiday and a slew of upcoming central bank meetings sucked the air out of the markets.

The Bank of Japan meeting on Friday will be the highlight of the week in Asia, after Bank Governor Kazuo Ueda sparked speculation of an imminent departure from ultra-soft policy.

This has highlighted the Japanese central bank in a week packed with central bank meetings, with a hawkish pause expected from the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of England possibly raising rates for the last time on Thursday.

The yen was unchanged against the US dollar at between 147.63 and 147.88 per dollar, while markets in Japan were closed due to a public holiday. The yen fell 1.3% in the days following Ueda's announcement that he would soon move away from negative rates, with losses for 2023 exceeding 11%.

Economists at Commonwealth Bank of Australia expect yen exchange rate volatility ahead of the policy meeting and believe investors may have misinterpreted Ueda's comments. Recent weakness in Japanese wages and possible prices could also soften and push the BoJ away from its inflation target, so the case for the BoJ to tighten policy is not yet strong.

CRYPTO BLUES: STABLECOIN'S HEAVY SHARE OF LOSSES

Dear clients,

Bitcoin is not the only asset experiencing a late summer downturn.

Stablecoins, cryptocurrencies typically pegged to real assets such as the US dollar, have fallen to their lowest market capitalisation in two years as low trading volumes and a buzzing dollar put pressure on the market for these tokens.

In fact, they are suffering the most.

While the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem has bounced back from 2022 lows, the market capitalisation of the stablecoin sector is set to decline for the 18th consecutive month, according to research firm CCData. It's down by almost a tenth this year and stood at $124.4bn as of 14 September.

Not everyone is keeping pace, though: The largest dollar-stablecoin, Tether, is bucking the downward trend. It hit a record high of $83.8bn in July, according to CoinGecko, after being worth less than $80bn in the first three months of this year, its volume has since fallen to around $82.9bn.

While stablecoins make up only a modest portion of the cryptocurrency market, they play a key role for traders, allowing them to hedge against price spikes in other tokens, such as bitcoin, or to store idle cash without having to transfer it back into fiat currency. Some enthusiasts also envisage using stablecoins as a means of payment.

However, the market for these tokens has been in the doldrums since last year's collapse of the algorithmic token TerraUSD, which was once the fourth-largest stablecoin token and was the first domino in a series of dramatic industry failures.

The market has also suffered losses for Binance's dollar-linked token BUSD, which is down about 89% from its all-time high reached in November. In February, the New York Department of Financial Services ordered issuer Paxos to cease issuing the token, which was once the third-largest stablecoin.

The market value of USD Coin (USDC), the second-largest stablecoin, has fallen more than 53% from its record high reached last June and now stands at more than $26bn.

 

[Fresh Forex]

TRADING SIGNALS: US FED MEETING

Dear clients,

On September 20, the US Federal Reserve System, the body that performs the functions of the Central Bank of America, will hold a meeting. The decision on the interest rate will determine further market movement, which is what makes traders involved.

Our expert tells us how the situation with the rates will develop now:

The US Fed may keep the rate at the previous level of 5.5% today, but will signal to traders about the possibility of raising rates at the next meeting on November 1, as fuel prices have risen strongly in the United States, which is fraught with rising inflation. The future rate hike is positive for the dollar, thus consider buying USDCAD, USDZAR and selling AUDUSD, XAGUSD on Wednesday.

Make your arrangements and get up to 10% bonus on your account for each deposit with cryptocurrency!

'WHAT A TWIST' FOR BANK OF ENGLAND

Dear clients,

The Bank of England will announce on Thursday whether it is halting its series of interest rate hikes, a day after signs that a turnaround is in sight in the UK's handling of high inflation.

As soon as official data showed an unexpected drop in the rate of price growth, investors began betting on Wednesday that the Bank of England would keep the Bank Rate at 5.25%. By Thursday, the figure had already reached 5.5%

Goldman Sachs and other banks abandoned their earlier expectations of another rate hike, and investors put the Bank of England's pause at around 50%, up from 20% on Tuesday.

Other analysts said they still see a final Bank of England rate hike as the most likely outcome following the recent surge in global oil prices, but emphasised that it could go either way.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and his colleagues on the Monetary Policy Committee have been heavily criticised after consumer price inflation topped 11% last October.

In recent weeks, Bailey and other officials have emphasised that while they may be close to reaching the peak of their series of rate rises, they may have to keep borrowing costs high for some time, dashing hopes of a rapid rate cut.

Whether or not the Bank of England raises rates again, it is likely to face the challenge of convincing investors that it will stand by its judgement and not rush to cut rates even as the already fragile UK economy shows signs of weakening.

The Bank of England is concerned that wages are still defying a slowdown in the wider economy and are rising at a record pace, threatening to derail its attempts to bring inflation down.

As well as the rate decision, the central bank is expected to unveil details of the next phase of a programme to reduce the stockpile of government bonds it has built up over a decade and a half to help the economy during the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

[Fresh Forex]

CHIP AND FAIL. A TROUBLED MONTH FOR THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY

Dear clients,

Shares of Nvidia and other U.S. semiconductor companies are starting to slowly lose lustre after a stunning rally into 2023 as investors weigh high valuations, rising Treasury yields and signs of industry worries.

At the start of the year, shares of chip companies soared, with the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor (.SOX) index surging more than 50% through July. No stock has embodied the chip industry's success more than Nvidia, whose shares tripled in 2023, when the company's market value topped $1 trillion, driven by excitement around the central role of the company's products in artificial intelligence applications.

However, the group's performance has stalled. SOX is down more than 7% this month, compared with a 2.3% fall in the broad S&P 500 index, while Nvidia shares — the driver of this year's broad market rally — are down more than 14% in September.

Investors said the group is also being impacted by industry concerns, including ongoing tensions between the U.S. and China over semiconductors. Washington is considering imposing restrictions on the sale of artificial intelligence chips, after export controls last year cut China off from some semiconductor chips made anywhere in the world on US equipment.

Another blow came from Taiwan's TSMC, which asked its major suppliers to delay shipments of high-tech chip-making equipment as the world's top contract chipmaker grows increasingly nervous about customer demand. Shares of several TSMC suppliers fell after the announcement.

Meanwhile, the excitement following last week's initial public offering of Arm Holdings has died down, and shares of the chip developer have fallen for the fifth consecutive day.

Still, the sentiment among investors is still quite positive. Many chip stocks have risen significantly over the year, and this month may prove to be only a temporary setback.

FREE POWERFUL TRADING ANALYTICS IN METATRADER 5

Dear clients,

Last week the MetaTrader 5 platform was updated to the Build 3950 version.

Let's get straight to the main thing. The trading history report has been redesigned and completely updated - now it is more clear. The developers have revised the approach to information presentation and converted dry statistical reports into interactive charts and diagrams. The work is still in progress, but you can already evaluate the changes. To view trade statistics, click "Reports" in the "View" menu.

Available reports:

Summary - summary information about your activity over time: account details, profit and loss totals, deposit and withdrawal amounts, balance, growth and dividend graphs, and other data.
Profit/Lost - historical information about profitable and losing trades. It is divided by type of trading (manual, copy-trading and algo-trading), can be analysed in terms of trades, percentages or money by days, months and years.
Long/Short - report on Buy- and Sell-orders in specified time intervals.
Symbols - detailed analysis of deals by financial instruments. Ratio of the number of deals, comparison of different types of trading and historical data for individual symbols or whole groups.


This innovation will help traders of any level to trade more efficiently — the statistics section has been redesigned, now it is a serious tool for analysing your own trading history. Beginners and professionals will find in the updated section everything they need to optimise their portfolio. You will no longer need third-party services to monitor trading results: the necessary information is built into the platform and is available at a single click.

Right now the update is available only for the desktop version of the platform with an operating system not lower than Windows 10. In the nearest updates this feature will be added to the web and mobile versions of MetaTrader 5.

No extra effort or cost — the solution is built into the trading platform and comes free of charge!

Try out the new stuff together with our unique offer — 50% discount on spread and swap when trading bitcoin!

 

[Fresh Forex]

HEATING FUEL PRICES

Dear clients,

Oil prices rose on Monday as investors focused on the prospects of tightening supply after Moscow imposed a temporary ban on fuel exports, but at the same time are wary of further rate hikes that could dampen demand.

Brent crude futures rose 69 cents, or 0.7%, to $93.96 a barrel by 06:46 GMT after falling 3 cents on Friday. West Texas Intermediate continued to rise for a second session and traded at $90.57 a barrel, up 54 cents, or 0.6%.

Both contracts went on a tear last week, breaking a three-week winning streak, after the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance caused concern in the global financial sector and boosted demand for oil.

Prices had risen more than 10% in the previous three weeks amid forecasts of a large oil supply deficit in the fourth quarter after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended additional supply cuts until the end of the year.

Moscow last week temporarily banned petrol and diesel exports to most countries to stabilise the domestic market, adding to fears of low supply of the commodity, especially heating oil, as the Northern Hemisphere enters winter.

In the US, despite higher prices, the number of active oil rigs fell by eight last week to 507, the lowest since February 2022, Baker Hughes showed in its weekly report on Friday.

Expectations of better economic data this week from China, the world's biggest oil importer, also helped boost sentiment. However, analysts said oil prices face technical resistance at the November 2022 highs reached last week.

According to analysts at Goldman Sachs, China's manufacturing sector is expected to return to growth in September, with the manufacturing business activity index expected to exceed the 50 mark for the first time since March.

On the positive side, Chinese oil demand rose 0.3 million bpd to 16.3 million last week, partly due to a gradual recovery in demand for jet fuel for international flights, they added.

"THERE'S NO HURRY": INDEX GAINS AMID MARKET SLOWDOWN

Dear clients,

Wall Street's major indices rose on Monday, including Amazon.com and energy stocks, as Treasury yields continued to rise and investors awaited economic data and speeches from Fed policymakers later in the week to get clarity on the future path of interest rates.

Investors are struggling with benchmark Treasury yields rising to 16-year highs after the Fed gave a hawkish outlook for long-term rates. The S&P 500 index rebounded Monday after last week's weekly decline was its biggest since March.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) index rose 43.04 points, or 0.13%, to 34,006.88; the S&P 500 index (.SPX) added 17.38 points, or 0.40%, to 4,337.44; and the Nasdaq Composite index (.IXIC) added 59.51 points, or 0.45%, to 13,271.32.

With the end of the third quarter approaching, investors have noted that until companies report quarterly results in the coming weeks, market movement may be relatively muted.

The S&P 500 index is down about 5.5% since the end of July, but is up about 13% for 2023.

According to analysts, there is no need to actively buy pullbacks during a period when rates remain higher-for-longer, and that is what the market will have to deal with in the coming months.

Investors will be watching data throughout the week, including durable goods and personal consumption expenditure price index for August, gross domestic product for the second quarter, and speeches from Fed policymakers, including Chairman Jerome Powell.

Chicago Fed Chairman Austan Goolsbee told CNBC on Monday that keeping inflation above the Fed's 2% target remains a greater risk than the central bank's tight policy slowing the economy more than necessary.

 

[Fresh Forex]

SEPTEMBER HARVEST

Dear clients,

September has come to an end, so it's time to share the results and recall the results of the first weeks of autumn.

So, here is what this month has brought to our traders:

GBPCAD, GBPNZD (Sell) and WTI, NZDCHF, CADCHF (Buy) ended up as the most profitable instruments.

The Heatmap will tell you more about these and other instruments.

September, though traditionally quiet, was not without events:

Autumn was greeted with summer mood and double profit with Cashback+101% promotion.
Double minus yield a plus for clients who traded bitcoin with a 50% discount on spread and swap.
Metatrader 5 terminal has got an update, now with more efficient and visual statistics.


And of course, our regular promotions — +10% for cryptocurrency deposit and 101% bonus.

October is a special month for us, so stay tuned: the company's birthday is just around the corner.

QUARTERLY RETORT

Dear clients,

Budgetary concerns and fears of a prolonged period of higher interest rates caused government bonds to fall in the third quarter, and some investors believe more weakness lies ahead.

US and German government bond yields were set to end September with their biggest quarterly gains in a year. Fund managers had already hoped for relief after the historic losses suffered by bonds in 2022, when the US Federal Reserve and other central banks raised interest rates to curb soaring inflation.

While bond yields, which move inversely to prices, seemed to have peaked earlier this year, renewed hawkish sentiment from central banks has led to a fresh rise in recent weeks.

In the US, for example, the benchmark yield on 10-year Treasuries is currently at a 16-year high of 4.55% and some investors believe it could rise to 5%, a level not seen since 2007. According to Bank of America Global Research, Treasuries have posted their third consecutive year of losses, an event without precedent in U.S. history.

The jump in yields is having a negative impact on equities, which in the U.S. and Europe are poised for their first quarterly decline of the year. Monetary policy expectations have been a key factor: last week, the Fed surprised investors with its hawkish rate forecasts, according to which borrowing costs will remain at current levels for most of 2024.

Investors had to quickly readjust: traders are now betting that the Fed Funds rate, currently at 5.25%-5.50%, will fall to 4.8% by the end of 2024, well above the 4.3% they forecast in late August.

Similarly, investors have pushed back expectations of a rate cut by the European Central Bank as policymakers stick to their course of keeping rates high for a long time. Prices in currency markets indicate that traders see the ECB deposit rate at around 3.5% by the end of 2024, up from 3.25% at the end of August.

Rising yields have not only hit bond investors, but also hurt equities, creating investment competition while raising the cost of borrowing for corporations and households.

The S&P 500 index (.SPX) fell 3.4% in the current quarter, its worst drop in a year, though it is up 11.3% since the beginning of the year. Europe's Stoxx 600 index (.STOXX), meanwhile, is up 5.6% this year but has lost 2.9% over the past three months.

OIL BOIL: A POWERFUL SURGE IN FUEL PRICES

Dear clients,

Oil prices hit one-year highs on Thursday, while global equities faced their longest losing streak in two years as fears of continued high interest rates intensified. This is causing investors to seek shelter under the influence of a rising US dollar.

Currency markets saw a brief respite from the dollar's strength, but it was a significant drop in US crude oil inventories on Wednesday that shook nerves over fears of another supply shock just when the global economy needs it least.

The price of U.S. crude hit $95 a barrel for the first time since August 2022, while Brent crude prices rallied again in early trading in London after hitting a one-year high of $97.69.

The yield on ten-year US Treasuries, the benchmark for global borrowing costs, topped 4.6% for the first time since 2007, having started September at 4%.

Germany's AAA bond yields went up again, while Italy's announcement on Wednesday that its budget deficit was widening again drove its short-term two-year bond yield to a new 11-year high. Traders were also watching U.S. lawmakers try to avoid another government shutdown in Washington.

With European stocks down 0.4% (.STOXX) and U.S. futures on the S&P 500 index, MSCI's main global index tracking 45 countries was on track for a 10th straight day of declines not seen since 2021.

MSCI's index for Asia-Pacific shares hit a 10-month low and Japan's Nikkei index fell 1.5% as investors preparing for the end of Q3 got rid of stocks that have run out of dividends.

 

[Fresh Forex]

FRESHFOREX BIRTHDAY CHALLENGE — SWEET 19!

Dear clients,

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So we're having a challenge with 119 prizes totaling $119,000. The grand prize is $30,000!

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"THE END OF AN ERA."

Dear clients,

The US bond market is marking the occasion: the era of low interest rates and inflation that began with the 2008 financial crisis is over. What will follow is still unclear.

That market view has become clearer in recent days amid a surge in 10-year Treasury yields to a 16-year high.

According to investors and the New York Fed's regularly updated yield-based model, the betting behind the move is that the disinflationary processes that the Federal Reserve has fought with easy-money policies since the financial crisis have tapered off.

Instead, investors believe investors have concluded that the U.S. economy is probably now in what one regional Fed chairman described as a "high-pressure equilibrium" characterised by inflation above the Fed's 2% target, low unemployment and positive growth.

This important shift in the outlook for rates has profound implications for policymakers, businesses, and the public. The shift to higher and more protracted rates could be painful and manifest itself in failed business models, unaffordable homes and cars. It could also force the Fed to keep raising rates until another failure occurs, as the three regional US banks did in March.

The Fed's market model for decomposing the 10-year Treasury yield into its components provides additional insight into investors' thinking.

In recent days, one component of yields — a measure of the reward investors demand for lending money for the long term — turned positive for the first time since June 2021, according to the ACM model.

The rise in the short-term rate also reflects confidence that structural shifts - from de-globalisation to declining productivity and an aging population - have raised the elusive theoretical interest rate at which growth neither accelerates nor slows and full employment exists at stable prices. It is called the neutral rate, or r-star.

While the market seems confident that the era of zero interest rates is over, it is much less confident about the real prospects for the economy.

The neutral rate, for example, determines whether the Fed Funds rate will slow or stimulate the economy, but no one really knows what the rate is really like until something breaks. Estimates vary widely.

The era of uncertainty has also arrived among monetary policymakers. A San Francisco Fed survey in August, which developed an index to gauge the level of disagreement among policymakers about their economic forecasts, showed that by June it had risen to a level higher than the pre-pandemic average.

 

[Fresh Forex]

THE OTHER TIP OF THE SCALES. GOLDMAN SACHS ON TECH STOCKS

Dear clients,

According to Goldman Sachs strategists, strong earnings results to be released soon could reverse the decline in technology and growth stocks, which have been hurt by rising Treasury yields and, according to one report, are trading at their lowest levels in six years.

The so-called "Magnificent Seven" — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.com, Alphabet, Nvidia, Tesla and Meta Platforms — have fallen 7% over the past couple of months, compared with a 3% decline for the S&P 500 index as a whole, as Treasury yields jumped more than 60 basis points to 16-year highs.

Those declines have caused forward price-to-earnings ratios for companies to fall 20% over the past two months, leaving them trading at the largest discount to the market based on long-term growth since January 2017, Goldman Sachs said in a note on 1 October. At the same time, group sales growth is expected to be 11% in the third quarter, compared with 1% for the S&P 500 index, the company said.

Goldman strategists said the "megacaps" have collectively beaten consensus forecasts for sales growth 81% of the time and exceeded earnings expectations in two-thirds of the seasons since the fourth quarter of 2016.

"The divergence between lowering estimates and improving fundamentals presents new opportunities for investors," they wrote.

The S&P 500 index has fallen nearly 5% over the past 10 trading days, but is up just over 11% since the start of the year.

MARKET JUSTICE

Dear clients,

Growing fears among bond investors about US government spending and the ballooning budget deficit are fuelling a sharp sell-off that has seen Treasury bond prices fall to 17-year lows.

So-called "bond vigilantes" — investors who punish profligate governments by selling their bonds and driving up yields — were a feature of markets in the 1990s, when concerns about US federal spending drove Treasury bond yields as high as 8%.

The expectation of a sharp increase in the US government budget deficit and the issuance of debt to cover those costs alarmed investors and brought the term back into Wall Street's everyday lexicon.

Fitch Ratings recently downgraded the country's credit rating, predicting that the US budget deficit will rise to 6.3% of gross domestic product this year from 3.7% in 2022 due to higher debt service costs, new spending initiatives and lower federal revenues.

While the Fed's hawkish interest rate outlook has been a major catalyst for yields and price impact, market participants attribute part of the decline in longer maturity bond yields to investor concerns about rising costs.

Yields on 30-year US Treasuries, which change inversely with prices, jumped to 5% on Wednesday for the first time since 2007 in a broad global bond sell-off before stabilising. Budget concerns have been mounting since the summer, when the Treasury announced plans to increase debt issuance.

Strategist Ed Yardeni, who introduced bond vigilantes in the early 1980s, has commented:

"Bond vigilantes are defying (Treasury Secretary Janet) Yellen's policy by raising bond yields to levels that threaten to trigger a debt crisis," he wrote in a Financial Times article Wednesday. "In this scenario, rising yields crowd out the private sector and trigger a credit crunch and recession."

Determined investors in the UK bonds last year helped bring about a policy reversal after a tax cut plan caused borrowing costs to soar, showing that bond vigilantes are still a force to be reckoned with.

However, not all investors believe that the "vigilantes" will be able to influence the $25 trillion Treasury market.

Experts believe the key driver of the sell-off is rate fears, not the supply of Treasuries. They believe some fund managers are waiting for yields to peak before acting. The recent sell-off has brought yields back to pre-financial crisis norms, which has increased the attractiveness of bonds in general and boosted investor returns.

 

[Fresh Forex]

TRADING SIGNALS: NFP FOR SEPTEMBER

Dear clients,

On October 6, we are expecting the publication of data on Nonfarm Payroll, a measure of U.S. manufacturing employment. The report significantly affects the movement of the US dollar and related instruments.

What indicators are expected this time, let's find out from our expert:

ISM's leading employment indicators point to the release of positive Non-Farm Employment data, which is favourable for the US dollar growth, as in this case the US Federal Reserve may raise interest rates at its November 1 meeting. On Friday consider selling GBPUSD, AUDUSD, XAUUSD, #NQ100.

Support your account and double your funds with 101% bonus

THE INTERLUDE

Dear clients,

The lull in bond sales lasted until Friday, but is unlikely to persist until the end of the day as investors await US employment data, which could bolster the case for keeping interest rates high for some time.

Oil's transition from a sharp rise to a fall also provided a respite, with Brent crude futures at $84.50 a barrel, about $13, or 13.5%, cheaper than last week's 11-month high.

MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares rose 0.9%. Tokyo's Nikkei (.N225) index was unchanged and currency markets were flat, although the dollar began a record 12th week of gains due to the bond slump.

The ten-year US Treasury yield held mercifully at 4.72% during the Asian session, but it climbed 55 basis points in the course of the five-week sell-off, weighing on bond markets and risk appetite globally.

However, no one was betting big until the release of US non-farm payrolls data at 12:30 GMT.

Another batch of bond sell-offs is likely to see the dollar continue its week-long winning streak, which is already the longest in history against the euro. The dollar index has risen for 12 consecutive weeks, repeating a streak that lasted from July to October 2014.

The rise has taken the euro at $1.0542 near an 11-month low and sterling near a seven-month trough. The dollar index was unchanged at 106.4 on Friday.

Surprisingly, only the beleaguered yen showed significant struggle as a sudden surge in the Japanese currency in London on Tuesday afternoon sparked speculation of government intervention.

Japanese money market data did not reveal any anomalies that could accompany intervention. However, the movement was notable enough to make traders wary.

The yen exchange rate was last seen remaining stable at 148.5 per dollar. Gold also remained steady at $1,822 an ounce after nine days of losses caused by rising global bond yields.

 

[Fresh Forex]

SHIFTING INTERESTS: HOW CHANGING RATES AFFECT THE CURRENCY MARKET

Dear clients,

Interest rates are one of the biggest driver of price across the markets, with currency being no exception. This time, we'll continue the talk on fluctuations in interest rates.

Join us on October 11 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

If you missed the previous webinars, you can always find them here.

BUSINESS AS USUAL

Dear clients,

While markets have largely regained their composure following events in the Middle East, some dovish remarks from US Federal Reserve officials helped calm investors' nerves ahead of Tuesday's trading session.

On Monday, senior Fed officials suggested that rising yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds could replace official monetary policy moves in terms of market impact, reinforcing expectations that the U.S. central bank may not need to raise rates further.

European stocks came under pressure on Monday amid news of conflict in the Middle East, but eurozone blue-chip futures STOXX 50 were back on the upside in Asia in the morning.

At the same time, 10-year US Treasuries posted their sharpest rise in more than a month at the opening of trading in Tokyo on Tuesday, fuelled by the Fed's "soft" remarks and demand for safe-haven assets.

The market will have more than enough to hear the views of Fed officials, who will take part in various events on Tuesday, and on Wednesday the minutes of the September monetary policy meeting will be released. All attention will then turn to Thursday's US consumer price index data.

At the same time, the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank will start in Morocco, where the world's leading politicians will speak.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will speak at Tuesday's meeting after economic data the previous day heightened fears of a possible recession in Germany, the eurozone's largest economy.

In Asia, more bad news came from China, with Country Garden, the largest private property developer, saying it will not be able to meet all of its offshore payment obligations on time or within the relevant grace periods.

AN ALL-FOR-ONE. OPEC+ REPRESENANTIVES' MEETING

Dear clients,

Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman and the United Arab Emirates have reaffirmed their commitment to "collective and individual voluntary adjustments" to oil production, Saudi Arabia's state news agency reported on Sunday.

The six countries' oil ministers met in Riyadh on Sunday on the sidelines of the UN's MENA climate week.

"In addition, the ministers reaffirmed the willingness of the countries participating in the Declaration of Co-operation to take additional measures at any time as part of their ongoing efforts to support market stability, building on the strong cohesion of OPEC+," Saudi state news agency SPA said in a report.

OPEC+ agreed in June to extend voluntary oil production cuts, first introduced in April, until the end of 2024. Additional voluntary cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia have been extended until the end of 2023 and are subject to monthly reviews.

Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries ministers on Wednesday made no changes to the group's oil production policy after Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed they would maintain voluntary supply cuts to support the market.

TRADE OIL WITH IMPROVED SWAPS AND GET YOUR 100 BARRELS!

Dear clients,

FreshForex is constantly working to make your trading as comfortable and efficient as possible. Thus, starting October 9, swaps on Brent and WTI oil contracts are dropped by 70%, the costs are reduced to 110 USD per lot.

For example, for transferring an open position to the next day the sale of 1 lot on the #Brent contract — swap will be 40 USD against 150 USD before the changes.

But that's not all, among all of our oil-trading clients, a raffle with a prize of 100 barrels* of Brent oil will be held!

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Promotion terms and conditions:

1. The campaign period is from October 9 to October 31;

2. All Clients who open a new transaction on a real account for #BRENT and (or) #WTI instruments during the period of the raffle will become participants of the raffle. The more trades, the more chances to win;

3. The prize fund - 100 barrels of Brent oil will be distributed among 5 randomly selected winners, each of whom will receive 20 barrels in dollar equivalent (at the Bid quote of the #BRENT instrument at the close of October 31);

4. The results of the draw will be published on November 1 in the company news;

5. The prizes will be credited within 5 working days after the results are announced in the "Balance" column, respectively fully available for trading and withdrawal.

 

[Fresh Forex]

TRIAL BY INFLATION

Dear clients,

Barely have the markets began to get used to the idea of a dovish stance from the Fed, as the unpleasant data on US producer inflation threatens to rain on parade, making for a nervous wait of the consumer price data to be released later today.

For now, the unchanged and — for equity investors — very welcome statement from Fed officials that caution should be exercised before further rate hikes drowns out any concerns about the data.

Asia-Pacific stocks picked up the baton from Wall Street, with Japan's Nikkei and Hong Kong's Hang Seng both rising more than 1%.

But how quickly markets reversed earlier in the week shows how quickly they can pull back. Despite the dovish notes, the Fed's underlying message remains that rates will rise as much as necessary to contain inflation.

While the prospect of US bond yields returning to 16-year highs above 5% is certainly a risk, there is a sense that the ceiling could be lower, while safe-haven assets are currently in demand amid geopolitical risks.

It's a big day for UK data too, with GDP and industrial production data coming out first.

At its meeting last month, the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged for the first time since the start of the interest rate tightening cycle in December 2021, but traders are putting the possibility of another rate hike before the end of the first quarter of next year at stake.

TRADING SIGNALS: SEPTEMBER INFLATION IN THE USA

Dear clients,

A closely watched US inflation report may help solve one of the most pressing questions among traders: whether the market has correctly identified the short-term trajectory of interest rates.

What to expect this month, let's learn from our expert:

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported an increase in inflation expectations of the population, which is favourable for the US dollar, as the Fed may then raise interest rates at its next meeting in November. On Thursday consider selling GBPUSD, #NQ100 and buying USDZAR, USDTRY.

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FINAL BOSS OF MICROSOFT\ACTIVISION BLIZZARD

Dear clients,

The UK competition authority on Friday approved Microsoft's acquisition of "Call of Duty" game maker Activision Blizzard after earlier concerns were allayed by a restructuring of the deal.

Activision agreed to sell its streaming rights to Ubisoft Entertainment in August, and last month Microsoft proposed measures to ensure compliance with the terms of the deal, allowing the regulator to allay some residual concerns.

The approval will allow Microsoft to complete the deal by 18 October, after it extended the deadline by three months in July to get the UK clearance.

The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) said Microsoft's concession on streaming was a "game changer" and added that it was the only competition organisation in the world to achieve such a result.

"The new deal will not allow Microsoft to block competition in cloud gaming as this market evolves, keeping prices and services competitive for UK cloud gaming customers," it said in a statement.

Microsoft announced the biggest deal in gaming industry history in early 2022, but in April the $69bn acquisition was blocked by the CMA, concerned that the US computer giant would gain too much control over the nascent cloud gaming market.

CMA chief executive Sarah Cardell said: "We made it clear to Microsoft that the deal would be blocked unless they addressed all of our concerns and we stand by our judgement." She said the regulator, which has been given greater powers following the UK's exit from the European Union, makes decisions "without political influence" and will not be "subject to lobbying by corporations".

Microsoft expressed "gratitude for the CMA's careful consideration and judgement".

"We have now cleared the final hurdle to finalise a deal that we believe will benefit players and the gaming industry worldwide," said vice president and president Brad Smith.

 

[Fresh Forex]

BUY ON RUMOURS: BITCOIN'S NEW SURGE

Dear clients,

Cryptocurrencies continued to rise in Asian trading on Tuesday, with bitcoin rising to nearly an 18-month high amid speculation about the imminent creation of an exchange-traded bitcoin fund.

The bitcoin exchange rate rose more than 6% to $35,198, its highest since May 2022. It rose 10% on Monday, its best performance in almost a year, and doubled its price in 2023.

Cryptocurrency-related stocks such as Coinbase Global (COIN.O) rose in over-the-counter trading.

An exchange-traded fund (ETF) that holds bitcoin on behalf of fund investors is seen as a demand driver, as it will allow those who don't want to trade in cryptocurrency markets to purchase bitcoin through the stock market.

Investment giant BlackRock is among several companies that have applied to set up bitcoin funds in the US, and speculation over their possible approval has been fuelled by the listing of BlackRock's iShares ETF on the DTCC clearing house website.

Expectations also rose after it was revealed this month that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will not appeal a court ruling that improperly rejected an ETF application from Grayscale Investments.

When and why the iShares ETF was added to the DTCC list was not specified. Last week, BlackRock denied an erroneous report that its ETF had been approved, and sources close to the SEC confirmed that the application was still under review.

THE SOUND OF SILENCE

Dear clients,

Poor lending data and weak purchasing managers' surveys confirmed what traders had already guessed: The rate hike cycle in Europe is over.

Markets believe there is little chance of a rate hike and see a recession on the horizon.

Absent surprises, trading is likely to hinge on earnings - Unilever (ULVR.L), Mercedes (MBGn.DE) and Amazon (AMZN.O) report on Thursday - and the behaviour of yields and the yen.

Google's disappointing results for its cloud division led to the sharpest drop in Alphabet shares since March 2020 on Wednesday, and they fell further in after-market trading in Asian hours.

The yen has surpassed the 150 per dollar mark and is now trading at its lowest level since Japanese authorities intervened last October to push the market higher.

On Wednesday, 10-year Treasury bond yields rallied towards 5% after a rise in US home sales gave further cause for concern about continued high interest rates. Nasdaq futures fell 1%.

"INACTION IS ACTION"

Interest rate brakes are fuelling optimism in markets.A sharp pullback in long-term US Treasury rates gave investors in the Asia-Pacific region a chance to exhale, with bond yields falling from decade highs in Tokyo and Sydney.

Stocks rebounded despite another sharp fall in Wall Street overnight, giving European investors cause for optimism. Japan's Nikkei index jumped 1.5% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was not far behind.

Undoubtedly, the US dollar is still in the lead, but the yen at least retreated from a one-year low and the euro recovered after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde announced a pause in the rate hike cycle, saying that "inaction is also action".

Some market recovery on Friday would be a good respite before a possible volatile marathon next week, when the Bank of Japan, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will make policy decisions on consecutive days.

The ECB has raised expectations that policy tightening in the US and UK has come to an end, making the Japan meeting potentially the most interesting. Perhaps for a central bank prone to surprises, the BOJ announcement will come on Halloween, with a weakening yen and rising yields fuelling speculation of another hawkish policy shift.

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