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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 23.01.2025

GBP/USD. Pound is ready to continue its strengthening.

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The sentiment regarding this trading pair, similar to EUR/USD, remains optimistic. The pound managed to improve its position, breaking away from persistent selling pressure. It is believed that the observed rise constitutes a genuine impulse, whose development began at the end of last year.

Currently, it is assumed that the third impulse wave is just beginning to form. If this is indeed the case, the current situation preserves considerable potential for further upside momentum.

Under these circumstances, it is advised to keep previously opened buy positions active. Also, consider the possibility of adding new buy orders at current market levels.

Investment idea: Buy 1.2315, Stop Loss 1.2290, Take Profit 1.2580.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 24.01.2025 USDJPY

Events to pay attention to today:

16:45 EET. USD - Composite PMI

USDJPY:


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The Japanese yen (JPY) is declining during the Asian session on Friday amid some repositioning ahead of the expected Bank of Japan (BoJ) decision. However, the yen's decline seems tempered amid growing expectations that the BoJ will raise interest rates amid signs that inflationary pressures in Japan are intensifying. In fact, government data released today showed that Japan's core consumer prices rose at the fastest pace in 16 months. Moreover, the core rate, which excludes fresh food and energy prices, remained above the Bank of Japan's 2% annualised target for the fourth consecutive month.

Meanwhile, the prospect of further BOJ policy tightening and bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates twice this year could narrow the rate differential between the U.S. and Japan. Additionally, concerns over US President Donald Trump's trade policies should continue to serve as a tailwind for the Yen. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, is languishing near one-month lows amid concerns over the interest rate implications of the Fed and Trump's policy clash. This, in turn, favours the USD bears and may help contain a significant rise in the USD/JPY pair.

Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 27.01.2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:

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EUR/USD declines to 1.0480 during the Asian session on Monday as the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US dollar against six major currencies, recovers from Friday's one-month low of 107.22. At the time of writing, the DXY is trading near 107.60.

The US dollar is strengthening after mixed US purchasing managers' index (PMI) data. Uncertainty surrounding the impact of US President Donald Trump's trade and immigration policies may support a cautious approach by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates this year.

Data released by S&P Global on Friday showed that the US composite PMI fell to 52.4 in January from 55.4 in December. Meanwhile, the PMI for manufacturing improved to 50.1 in January from 49.4 previously, beating estimates of 49.6. Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January from 56.8 in December, below the market consensus forecast of 56.5.

However, EUR/USD strengthened as the euro received support from the preliminary composite Eurozone HCOB Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which rose in January after contracting in the previous two months. S&P Global's flash HCOB PMI report showed that overall business activity rose. The composite PMI rose to 50.2 from 49.6 in November. Economists had expected the PMI to continue to decline, but at a slower pace to 49.7.

Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.0450, if the level is fixed below consider Sell positions, if the level bounces back consider Buy positions.

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 28.01.2025

Event to pay attention to today:

17:00 EET. USD - CB Consumer Confidence

USD/JPY. Further impulsive price decline is expected.​

The trading week for this pair began with confirmation of the previously considered scenario. The price started moving down, likely beginning the formation of wave 3 of the downward impulse. If this is indeed the case, we can expect further price declines.
Since the price has not moved significantly down yet, merely updating the local low, there is still a good opportunity to enter the expected movement at favorable prices. Targets for this downward movement lie at the 148.50 level, but this is just an intermediate level. Globally, the price could update the low of last year, which is at the 139.60 level.
Therefore, entering sell positions looks like a promising trading decision, so it is recommended to consider this opportunity.

Investment idea: sell at 154.00, stop loss at 154.30, take profit at 148.60.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 29.01.2025 USDJPY

Event to pay attention to today:

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision

USDJPY:

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During Wednesday's Asian session, the Japanese Yen (JPY) remained under pressure against its US counterpart, although it lacked bearish conviction amid expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The recent decline in US Treasury bond yields, driven by rising speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to cut rates in 2025, is likely to limit the downward trend for the low-yielding yen.

Concerns over the economic impact of US President Donald Trump's threatened tariffs, along with the overall positive tone on risks, are undermining the safe-haven yen. Overnight positivity in the US Dollar (USD) has contributed to the USD/JPY pair trading with a positive bias above the mid 155.00s. However, traders are likely to adopt a wait-and-see stance ahead of the FOMC monetary policy decision, due to be announced later today.

Trade recommendation: Trading predominantly Buy orders from the current price level.

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 30.01.2025

USD/JPY. Impulsive price decline is expected.
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As expected, buyers have not managed to regain control of the situation. After a sharp decline, which led to the renewal of the minimum established at the start of the year, the price began to rise, trying to quickly reverse the damage.

However, after recovering more than half of the decline, buyers’ enthusiasm faded, and the price began to slide again. This price movement is likely caused by the extension of the third wave of the downward impulse. In this case, we may soon see a prolonged impulsive decline towards the 150 yen per dollar mark. This presents a good opportunity to profit from this move.

Investment idea: sell at 154.60, stop loss at 154.85, take profit at 150.00.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 31.01.2024 EURUSD

EURUSD:

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EUR/USD pulled back half a per cent on Monday, falling below 1.0500 and trimming recent gains amid a decline in risk sentiment in the broad market. Trade wars made headlines again after a spat between US President Donald Trump and Colombia over migrant deportations, with newly minted Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent immediately speaking out in favour of widespread global tariffs, just minutes after being confirmed by the US Senate.

The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in January. However, if Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sounds uncertain at his mid-week press conference, market hopes for more Fed rate cuts in 2025 may diminish. Markets have raised expectations for rate cuts this year, expecting a total of 50 bps.

Late Monday, President Trump reignited trade war fears by announcing plans to impose trade tariffs on key industries on which the U.S. economy heavily depends, including steel, computer chips, aluminium, copper and other semiconductors. Trump insists that the only way to avoid trade tariffs would be to build manufacturing facilities within the U.S. because the U.S. economy is prohibitively expensive to operate, far exceeding any anticipated costs that could be imposed on U.S. consumers as retaliation against countries that export to the United States.

Trade recommendation: Trading mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.

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