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Elliott wave analysis of the market for 23.01.2025

GBP/USD. Pound is ready to continue its strengthening.

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The sentiment regarding this trading pair, similar to EUR/USD, remains optimistic. The pound managed to improve its position, breaking away from persistent selling pressure. It is believed that the observed rise constitutes a genuine impulse, whose development began at the end of last year.

Currently, it is assumed that the third impulse wave is just beginning to form. If this is indeed the case, the current situation preserves considerable potential for further upside momentum.

Under these circumstances, it is advised to keep previously opened buy positions active. Also, consider the possibility of adding new buy orders at current market levels.

Investment idea: Buy 1.2315, Stop Loss 1.2290, Take Profit 1.2580.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 24.01.2025 USDJPY

Events to pay attention to today:

16:45 EET. USD - Composite PMI

USDJPY:


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The Japanese yen (JPY) is declining during the Asian session on Friday amid some repositioning ahead of the expected Bank of Japan (BoJ) decision. However, the yen's decline seems tempered amid growing expectations that the BoJ will raise interest rates amid signs that inflationary pressures in Japan are intensifying. In fact, government data released today showed that Japan's core consumer prices rose at the fastest pace in 16 months. Moreover, the core rate, which excludes fresh food and energy prices, remained above the Bank of Japan's 2% annualised target for the fourth consecutive month.

Meanwhile, the prospect of further BOJ policy tightening and bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates twice this year could narrow the rate differential between the U.S. and Japan. Additionally, concerns over US President Donald Trump's trade policies should continue to serve as a tailwind for the Yen. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, is languishing near one-month lows amid concerns over the interest rate implications of the Fed and Trump's policy clash. This, in turn, favours the USD bears and may help contain a significant rise in the USD/JPY pair.

Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.

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Fundamental analysis of the market for 27.01.2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:

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EUR/USD declines to 1.0480 during the Asian session on Monday as the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US dollar against six major currencies, recovers from Friday's one-month low of 107.22. At the time of writing, the DXY is trading near 107.60.

The US dollar is strengthening after mixed US purchasing managers' index (PMI) data. Uncertainty surrounding the impact of US President Donald Trump's trade and immigration policies may support a cautious approach by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates this year.

Data released by S&P Global on Friday showed that the US composite PMI fell to 52.4 in January from 55.4 in December. Meanwhile, the PMI for manufacturing improved to 50.1 in January from 49.4 previously, beating estimates of 49.6. Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January from 56.8 in December, below the market consensus forecast of 56.5.

However, EUR/USD strengthened as the euro received support from the preliminary composite Eurozone HCOB Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which rose in January after contracting in the previous two months. S&P Global's flash HCOB PMI report showed that overall business activity rose. The composite PMI rose to 50.2 from 49.6 in November. Economists had expected the PMI to continue to decline, but at a slower pace to 49.7.

Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.0450, if the level is fixed below consider Sell positions, if the level bounces back consider Buy positions.

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 28.01.2025

Event to pay attention to today:

17:00 EET. USD - CB Consumer Confidence

USD/JPY. Further impulsive price decline is expected.​

The trading week for this pair began with confirmation of the previously considered scenario. The price started moving down, likely beginning the formation of wave 3 of the downward impulse. If this is indeed the case, we can expect further price declines.
Since the price has not moved significantly down yet, merely updating the local low, there is still a good opportunity to enter the expected movement at favorable prices. Targets for this downward movement lie at the 148.50 level, but this is just an intermediate level. Globally, the price could update the low of last year, which is at the 139.60 level.
Therefore, entering sell positions looks like a promising trading decision, so it is recommended to consider this opportunity.

Investment idea: sell at 154.00, stop loss at 154.30, take profit at 148.60.

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Fundamental analysis of the market for 29.01.2025 USDJPY

Event to pay attention to today:

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision

USDJPY:

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During Wednesday's Asian session, the Japanese Yen (JPY) remained under pressure against its US counterpart, although it lacked bearish conviction amid expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The recent decline in US Treasury bond yields, driven by rising speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to cut rates in 2025, is likely to limit the downward trend for the low-yielding yen.

Concerns over the economic impact of US President Donald Trump's threatened tariffs, along with the overall positive tone on risks, are undermining the safe-haven yen. Overnight positivity in the US Dollar (USD) has contributed to the USD/JPY pair trading with a positive bias above the mid 155.00s. However, traders are likely to adopt a wait-and-see stance ahead of the FOMC monetary policy decision, due to be announced later today.

Trade recommendation: Trading predominantly Buy orders from the current price level.

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 30.01.2025

USD/JPY. Impulsive price decline is expected.
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As expected, buyers have not managed to regain control of the situation. After a sharp decline, which led to the renewal of the minimum established at the start of the year, the price began to rise, trying to quickly reverse the damage.

However, after recovering more than half of the decline, buyers’ enthusiasm faded, and the price began to slide again. This price movement is likely caused by the extension of the third wave of the downward impulse. In this case, we may soon see a prolonged impulsive decline towards the 150 yen per dollar mark. This presents a good opportunity to profit from this move.

Investment idea: sell at 154.60, stop loss at 154.85, take profit at 150.00.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 31.01.2024 EURUSD

EURUSD:

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EUR/USD pulled back half a per cent on Monday, falling below 1.0500 and trimming recent gains amid a decline in risk sentiment in the broad market. Trade wars made headlines again after a spat between US President Donald Trump and Colombia over migrant deportations, with newly minted Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent immediately speaking out in favour of widespread global tariffs, just minutes after being confirmed by the US Senate.

The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in January. However, if Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sounds uncertain at his mid-week press conference, market hopes for more Fed rate cuts in 2025 may diminish. Markets have raised expectations for rate cuts this year, expecting a total of 50 bps.

Late Monday, President Trump reignited trade war fears by announcing plans to impose trade tariffs on key industries on which the U.S. economy heavily depends, including steel, computer chips, aluminium, copper and other semiconductors. Trump insists that the only way to avoid trade tariffs would be to build manufacturing facilities within the U.S. because the U.S. economy is prohibitively expensive to operate, far exceeding any anticipated costs that could be imposed on U.S. consumers as retaliation against countries that export to the United States.

Trade recommendation: Trading mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.

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Fundamental analysis of the market for 03.02.2024 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:
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The GBP/USD pair continued to fall for the fifth consecutive session, hovering around 1.2270 during Asian trading hours on Monday. The pair weakened by around 1 per cent as the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US dollar against six major peers, gained ground following US President Donald Trump's tariff threats against China, Canada and Mexico.

On Saturday, the U.S. said it would impose 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, while Chinese exports would be subject to 10 per cent tariffs. In addition, Canadian energy exports will be subject to a 10 per cent tariff.

Meanwhile, US inflation data reinforced the Federal Reserve's (Fed) stance on the outlook for monetary policy. The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, which the Fed uses to measure inflation, rose 0.3% in December, up from 0.1% in November. On an annualised basis, PCE inflation accelerated to 2.6% from a previous reading of 2.4%, while the core PCE index, which excludes food and energy, remained unchanged at 2.8% y/y for the third consecutive month.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is exposed to additional downside risks as traders expect the Bank of England (BoE) to resume its policy easing cycle and is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.5% in February. For now, investors are keeping a close eye on the Bank of England's monetary policy decision next Thursday.

Trading recommendation: Trading mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 04.02.2025 GBPUSD

GBP/USD. Growth is expected in the fifth wave of a diagonal triangle.

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The opening of trades for this pair turned out to be unsuccessful for buyers. As with EUR/USD, the price plummeted sharply, disrupting the structure of the classic upward impulse that had been anticipated earlier.

However, there is no need to discard the bullish structure yet. It is quite possible that an initial diagonal triangle is currently forming, which fully agrees with what is happening with the EUR/USD pair.

The recent decline, within this model, is likely corrective in nature and is caused by the development of wave 4. In this case, we can expect an impulsive growth soon as wave 5 forms.

Thus, entering into buy positions at current market values seems justified and quite attractive.

Investment idea: Buy 1.2400, stop loss 1.2350, take profit 1.2620.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 05.02.2024 USDJPY

USDJPY:

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The Japanese Yen (JPY) is attracting fresh buyers after data released during Wednesday's Asian session showed a rise in real wages in Japan, confirming bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again. This is significantly at odds with expectations that the Federal Reserve (BoJ) will cut borrowing costs twice before the end of this year. As a result, the narrowing rate differential between Japan and the U.S. will support yen yields.

In addition, the weakening U.S. dollar (USD) led the USD/JPY pair to fall to mid 153.0, or the lowest level since December 18, in the last hour. Meanwhile, investors remain concerned that Japan could also be targeted by US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs. This, along with a risk-on sentiment, could deter traders from making new bullish bets on the safe-haven yen. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop supports the outlook for further yen strength.

The Japanese yen hit a one-month high against the US dollar amid expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike. Expectations of further narrowing of the rate differential between Japan and the US also support the yen.

Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 06.02.2025 USDJPY

USD/JPY. Further impulsive decline is expected.​

Something interesting seems to be brewing with this currency pair. Activated sales led to an update of the local price low. The observed decline is presumably Wave 3 of the forming downward impulse. It's quite possible that this wave is also extended, so we can expect sustained downward movement. However, this currency pair often behaves quite capriciously, especially when it comes to downward movements.
Perhaps this time everything will work out, and we'll finally see a full-fledged impulsive movement that could bring the rate to last year's low. The potential for movement in this case looks very interesting, so it is recommended to closely monitor developments and, if possible, try to participate in them.
Investment idea: Sell at 152.00, Stop Loss at 152.30, Take Profit at 150.00.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 05.02.2024 USDJPY

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Employment Change

EURUSD:

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On Thursday, the EUR/USD exchange rate demonstrated resilience, holding steady near the 1.0400 mark despite testing the lower boundary of the chart. The release of EU retail sales data, which matched market expectations, did not significantly impact investor sentiment. In contrast, US Dollar traders maintained a firm stance ahead of Friday's release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data.

European retail sales growth in December came in at 1.9% year-on-year, matching the market's average forecasts and slightly above the revised previous figure of 1.6%.Despite the year-on-year increase, retail sales actually contracted for the month, coming in at -0.2%, down from 0.0% in the previous month, which was also revised lower.

Economic data from the US on Thursday was mostly mid-range, with weekly initial jobless claims rising to 219k for the week ending 31 January. Analysts had expected a figure of 213k, while the previous week's figure was slightly revised to 208k.New non-farm payrolls (NFP) data is scheduled for release on Friday. Projections indicate a decline in net job gains to 170K from December's 256K, with market participants closely monitoring revisions to older data.Historically, revisions to data after publication have shown higher results in 2024, leading to disappointment among market participants who had anticipated signs of weakness in the US labour market, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve (Fed) to further reduce interest rates.

Trading recommendation: Trading predominantly Sell orders from the current price level.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 11.02.2024 EURUSD

EURUSD:

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On Monday, the EUR/USD exchange rate experienced a decline of approximately a third of a percentage point, reaching 1.0300 as market sentiment moderated. Investors are anticipating clearer signals from central bank policymakers, however, the recent series of executive orders on tariffs issued by US President Donald Trump has introduced an element of uncertainty.

European data is generally limited this week, with a speech from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde failing to elicit significant movement. This routine speech is a staple in ECB policymakers' talking points.Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver his latest testimony to the US Senate Banking Committee, where he is expected to address concerns regarding the Fed's response to the fluctuating tariff threats posed by President Trump.

Germany's final Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for the year ending January is scheduled for release on Thursday, and EU gross domestic product data for the fourth quarter is due on Friday. Neither of these indicators are expected to undergo significant change.Key data this week will be US consumer price index (CPI) inflation, released on Wednesday, and the US producer price index (PPI), released on Thursday.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.0310, SL 1.0285, TP 1.0360

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 12.02.2024 GBPUSD

Events to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

17:00 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks

GBPUSD:

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The GBP/USD pair rebounded on Tuesday, breaking a three-day losing streak and returning to the 1.2450 level touching range, up around two-thirds of one per cent for the day. Global currency markets sold off the US Dollar slightly as risk appetite gradually recovered across the board, helped by a speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell and expectations that the latest iteration of US President Donald Trump's tariff threats would be averted through last-minute concessions, as has been the custom since Donald Trump took over the White House.UK data remains scarce midweek, but cable traders will be keeping an eye on Thursday's release of UK gross domestic product (GDP) data. The latest forecasts indicate that UK GDP will recover to 1.1% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, although the fourth quarter GDP figure is expected to contract by -0.1%.The key indicator on Wednesday will be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). US core CPI inflation is expected to remain at 2.9% year-on-year, while core CPI inflation is expected to decline to 3.1% from the previous reading of 3.2%. On Thursday, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released, with core PPI inflation expected to ease slightly to 3.3% y/y from 3.5%.

Trading recommendation: FLAT

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Market options analysis for 13.02.2025 BTCUSD

BTCUSD: SELL 97107, SL 98373, TR 93035​

The price is trading, in the comfort zone, below the balance level of the day 9710. The downward momentum priority, still persists, where the target is the 87960 level. The price is below the level of the momentum of the beginning of time, in synergy with the balance of the current day, where it is favourable to sell the asset, with little risk, to the level of 90944. Price is still flat, in the body of the climax of the downward momentum, gaining liquidity. The time range of the impulse has a large vector, up to the end of the month. Strong resistance near the balance at 99180. The medium-term target level is located at 88157. The main task at this stage is to break through and consolidate below the level of 96222. The alternative scenario of growth, can be considered only when the price fixation by a step, above 98689.50, with a target of 100935.50. The main scenario of the current day is selling the pair, the alternative scenario is not considered at this stage.

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Trading recommendation: BTCUSD: SELL 97107, SL 98373, TP 93035

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 14.02.2024 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales

EURUSD:

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On Thursday, the EUR/USD exchange rate strengthened, rising seven-tenths of a percentage point to re-enter the 1.0400 range. This gain was influenced by a general weakening of the US dollar, which facilitated inflows amid less severe US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data than anticipated.Investors are currently speculating that the Trump administration's ongoing ambiguity regarding tariff threats indicates the likelihood of no trade war.

Meanwhile, European economic data released on Thursday aligned with market expectations, offering minimal impact on traders. However, the US PPI data, which exceeded forecasts, helped alleviate investor concerns regarding renewed inflationary pressures. Core inflation for the year ending January stood at 3.6% year-on-year (y/y), surpassing the 3.3% forecast but falling short of the revised 3.7% figure, originally published at 3.5%.

The upcoming release of US Retail Sales will be a key data point for the week, with markets anticipating another strong performance. The monthly retail sales figure is forecast to decline marginally by 0.1%, from the previous reading of 0.4%.In other news, US President Donald Trump has unveiled his latest strategy to boost tax revenues, amid significant cuts in administrative taxes. The concept of 'reciprocal tariffs', which involves the imposition of duties on countries that levy tariffs on US goods, is scheduled to be developed in the coming months, with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick appointed to finalise the details.The timing of additional tariffs remains unclear, and investors view these new tariff threats as unlikely, reminiscent of Trump's proposed 'day one tariffs' as well as tariffs on Canada, Mexico and specific imports such as cars, microchips and pharmaceuticals. While there are various proposals for imposing import taxes on US consumers and businesses to penalise foreign companies and countries, there has been little real movement so far, leading investors to assume this trend will continue.

Trading recommendation: EURUSD: BUY 1.0470, SL 1.0410, TP 1.0530

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 17.02.2024 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

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The GBP/USD pair is trading slightly higher near 1.2585 in the early Asian session on Monday, rising on the back of a positive UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report and weak US retail sales data.The US market will be closed on Monday due to the Presidents' Day holiday.US retail sales posted their biggest drop in nearly two years, dragging down the dollar. The Commerce Department's Census Bureau reported on Friday that retail sales fell 0.9 per cent in January after an upwardly revised 0.7 per cent rise in December, which was weaker than the 0.1 per cent decline that had been forecast. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales rose 4.2 per cent during the same reporting period.Stronger than expected UK GDP figures provide some support for the Pound Sterling (GBP). According to the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK economy grew by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2024, beating expectations. Traders will be monitoring the UK labour market and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, which will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. These reports may provide some indication as to whether the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates again at its March meeting.

Trading recommendation: GBPUSD: SELL 1.2580, SL 1.2630, TP 1.2510

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 18.02.2025 BTCUSD

BTCUSD: SELL 95000, SL: 98000, TP: 89000.

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Bitcoin's volatility remains extremely low, indicating an impending significant move in one of the directions. The current wave pattern suggests a likely decline in the price. This is associated with the ongoing correction, which is developing in the form of a double zigzag, where the last wave [y] of a is yet to be formed.

On a broader scale, the corrective movement is likely to take the form of a simple zigzag. After the expected drop, counting on a prolonged upward movement is unrealistic. Growth will occur within Wave b, and it is unlikely that it will update the current high.
It is now appropriate to consider the possibility of opening short positions when the price falls below $95,000.

Investment strategy: Sell: 95,000, SL: 98,000, TP: 89,000.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 19.02.2024 USDJPY

USDJPY:
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The Japanese yen (JPY) failed to capitalise on modest gains during the Asian session and declined for the second consecutive day against its US counterpart on Wednesday. Optimism over the postponement of Trump's retaliatory tariffs and talks aimed at ending the war between Russia and Ukraine continue to maintain a positive tone in equity markets. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor undermining the safe-haven Yen, which, along with a modest rise in the US Dollar (USD), is helping the USD/JPY bounce around 40 pips from the daily low.

Nevertheless, a significant decline in the Yen seems elusive amid rising bets for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) amid signs of rising inflation. Meanwhile, the BoJ's hawkish expectations have led to a recent significant rise in Japanese bond yields. As a result, the narrowing rate differential between Japan and other countries supports the prospect of some Yen dip-buying. This, in turn, calls for some caution before making aggressive bullish bets on the USD/JPY pair ahead of the publication of the FOMC meeting minutes today.

Trade recommendation: SELL 151.75, SL 153.50, TP 150.00

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[Fresh Forex]

Options analysis for 20.02.2025 #NQ100

#NQ100: BUY 22040, SL 21970, TR 22370​

The price is trading in the comfort zone, below the balance level of the day 22141. The price has formed a new upward momentum, with an intermediate target at 22675. The previous growth scenario is still in priority. The liquidity for the impulse is being recruited, with an intermediate-term target at 22520. The strategic support level is located much lower than the current quotes, in the area of 21900. Stabilisation of the balance levels of the day, characterises the continuation of the impulse. The medium-term scenario of growth and deepening is now in priority. Active buying, from current values, is a priority. Renewal of yesterday's lows, followed by a test of the balance of the day, will provide an undeniable entry point for buying, in the short term. The main scenario of the current day is buying the asset, the alternative scenario is not considered at this stage. Buyers' DC ratios are 52%, month and 76% of the week.

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Trade recommendation: BUY 22040, SL 21970, TR 22370.

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