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Elliott wave analysis of the market for 26.11.2024 EURUSD

EUR/USD. The beginning of impulsive growth.

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The opening of the trading week resulted in the formation of a bullish gap, which was quickly closed. Now the price is at the very beginning of this gap, and apparently another attempt to grow will be made. The current situation is very favorable for this, as the development of a downward impulse, part of wave C of a large bearish zigzag, has presumably ended. This means that now we may be witnessing the beginning of the next, already bullish phase of the market.

The growth may take the form of a classic impulse or an initial diagonal triangle. The current option suggests a movement in the usual form, the potential of which looks quite attractive to try to participate in it.

Investment idea: buy 1.0460, stop loss 1.0430, take profit 1.0720.

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Fundamental analysis of the market for 27.11.2024 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

GBPUSD:


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The Pound-Dollar pair is trading on a stronger note near 1.2570 on Wednesday in the early European session. The Pound Sterling (GBP) is strengthening despite US President-elect Donald Trump announcing new tariff measures. Traders are awaiting the release of October's Core PCE (US Personal Consumption Expenditure) price index to give it a fresh boost.

Early Tuesday, Donald Trump promised to impose tariffs on all goods imported into the US from Canada, Mexico and China, which led to the dollar's rally against the pound sterling in the previous session. The dollar's rally will pause on Wednesday as traders await US core PCE inflation data for more information on the outlook for interest rates. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of currencies, is currently trading near the lower end of its weekly range around 106.85.

Most Bank of England (BoE) policymakers support a gradual approach to policy easing. Bank of England Deputy Governor Claire Lombardelli said on Tuesday that she needed to see more evidence of cooling price pressures before she would support another interest rate cut. The betting that the UK central bank will cut interest rates next month is providing some support for the British pound at the moment.

Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.2550, if consolidated below consider Sell positions, if rebounded consider Buy positions.

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for 28.11.2024 GBPUSD

GBP/USD. The price is ready to continue rising.

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The pound is trying to keep up with the euro and also takes advantage of the opportunity to improve its shaky position. Buyers managed to raise the rate so much that the local maximum was updated. Probably, the development of an upward impulse movement is beginning, in which the third wave is currently forming.
Thus, the situation suggests further development of an upward impulse movement. The next stop for correction is expected after the breakdown of the wave 4 maximum in the previously formed downward impulse. The margin of movement remains sufficient to open additional buy deals.

Investment idea: buy 1.2675, stop loss 1.2650, take profit 1.2770.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 29.11.2024 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

12:00 EET. EUR - Consumer Price Index - Core

EURUSD:

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On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair moved just below 1.0600 on the chart, indicating a lack of further expansion in the recent bullish recovery, as well as a lack of decline in value. Market volumes were limited on Thursday due to the closure of US markets for the Thanksgiving holiday. Furthermore, liquidity in the US session will be constrained on Friday as the trading week draws to a close.

The release of fresh EU inflation data on Friday could provide a boost to the euro ahead of the weekend, although there has been little reason for fibre traders to rally EUR/USD recently. The key indicators for fibre will be the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation data. Core HICP inflation is forecast to rise to 2.8% y/y in November, up from a previous reading of 2.7%. This will have an impact on the work of several European Central Bank (ECB) officials who have been communicating with the newswires this week to reassure investors of further rate cuts in December and throughout 2025.

In terms of the US dollar, the key indicator to watch next Friday will be the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, scheduled for 6 December. Next week's NFP will assume greater significance for traders, given the recent shift in focus away from anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed). However, a notable shift in the NFP numbers could have a significant impact on Treasury rates, prompting new considerations about the optimal number of rate cuts in 2025.

Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.0600, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.

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Fundamental analysis of the market for 02.12.2024 GBPUSD
Event to pay attention to today:

18:00 GMT+3. USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI

GBPUSD:


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Amid ongoing geopolitical risks, fears of a second wave of trade war after US President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January are driving some asset flows towards the US Dollar and putting pressure on GBP/USD. Indeed, Trump has threatened to impose 100 percent tariffs on the so-called BRICS countries - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa - if they replace the US dollar with another currency for international transactions.

Trump has also promised big tariffs against America's three biggest trading partners - Mexico, Canada and China. This could push up consumer prices and set the stage for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to stop cutting interest rates or possibly raise them again. In addition, the cautious market sentiment is proving to be another factor helping the buck recover some of last week's heavy losses to its lowest level since Nov. 12.

Traders may also refrain from aggressive directional bets ahead of the release of important macroeconomic data from the US scheduled for the beginning of the new month, starting with the ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday. However, the market's main focus will be on the all-important monthly US employment data, known as the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which will be released on Friday. It may provide clues as to the path of the Fed rate cut and influence the price dynamics of the dollar.

Trading recommendation: Watching the level of 1.2750, trading mainly with Sell orders

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for 02.12.2024 USDJPY

USD/JPY. Corrective upward movement is expected.​

There were no significant changes in the current trading session for this pair. The dollar made a weak attempt to grow, but quickly abandoned this idea. As a result, the price returned to the same value from which this growth attempt was initiated.
However, the current situation suggests an upward movement due to the formation of a correction structure. Previously, the formation of a downward impulse, which is presumably the initial wave in an emerging downward impulsive movement of an older time level, likely ended.
Thus, in the current situation, it is worth considering the possibility of entering into buy trades at current market values.

Investment idea: buy 150.15, stop loss 149.90, take profit 152.00.

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Fundamental analysis of the market for 04.12.2024 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

15:15 EET. USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services PMI

EURUSD: ​

EUR/USD declined again on Tuesday, clinging to 1.0500, while the pair failed to realize a bullish attempt at 1.0600. There are a few EU-centric data releases on Wednesday, but most of them are final data that are unlikely to move markets, with most investors turning their attention to the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data later in the week.

Early Wednesday will see the final European Union Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for November, but the figures are expected to be unchanged. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde will also appear at the European Parliament where she will testify before the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee. It is unlikely that the ECB will make any market-important announcements after the question period.

Wednesday will see the release of the US non-farm employment change data from ADP, which is expected to fall to 150k from the previous reading of 233k. The ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from ISM will also hit investors on Wednesday during the US trading session. The US services PMI survey is expected to fall to 55.5 in November from 56.0 in the previous month.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell is also expected to speak on Wednesday. The Fed chief will answer questions from the audience during a discussion organized by the New York Times.

Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 1.0500, when fixing below consider Sell positions, when rebounding consider Buy positions.

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for 05.12.2024 GBPUSD

GBP/USD. The price will remain within the forming correction.


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The situation with the pair did not undergo any significant changes during the trading day. Remaining within the limits of the ongoing correction, neither of the ever-competing sides made efforts to gain any advantage. Most likely, the current trading week will end in a draw, continuing pointless jumps up and down within the forming correction.
For this reason, it is not recommended to look for any trading opportunities. Wait for the start of directional movement and join it. It is assumed that this direction will be upward, as the development of a bullish impulse, namely its third wave, is expected.
Investment idea: flat.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 06.12.2024 USDJPY

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate

USDJPY:

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The Japanese yen continues to consolidate price movement amid fluctuating expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike.

A softer tone of risk sentiment, trade war fears and geopolitical risks may support the safe-haven Japanese Yen.

Moderate dollar growth could be a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair ahead of the US NFP report.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) cannot consolidate the previous day's modest gains and fluctuated in a narrow range against its US counterpart during the Asian session on Friday. At the same time, the near-term trends are leaning in favor of the yen bulls amid the Bank of Japan (BoJ) taking a tougher stance. In fact, the BoJ continues to raise interest rates while other major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), continue to lower borrowing costs.

In addition, a slight deterioration in global risk sentiment, ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade war fears continue to support the safe-haven yen. Meanwhile, the recent decline in US Treasury bond yields has kept the dollar (USD) near multi-week lows and further supported the yen. Nevertheless, traders prefer to wait for the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report to get signals on the prospects of a Fed rate cut before making new directional bets on the USD/JPY pair.

Trade recommendation: Watching the level of 150.00, trading mainly with Buy orders.

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Fundamental analysis of the market for 09.12.2024 EURUSD

EURUSD:

​

The EUR/USD currency pair is trading with a slight negative bias near 1.0550 during Asian trading hours on Monday. Investors will be monitoring the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for November, scheduled for publication on Wednesday. The European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision will be the primary focus on Thursday. Investors will be seeking indications as to the likely course of future events.

There was a rise in expectations for a quarter-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on 18 December last week, following the release of the jobs report, which showed strong job gains. However, these gains were not at a pace that would necessarily deter Fed officials from cutting rates to 4.25-4.5% from the current range of 4.5-4.75%.

Amid high hopes of a US interest rate cut later this month, Wednesday's inflation data could present the only potential obstacle to a third consecutive Fed rate cut. Analysts anticipate that annual consumer price inflation will increase from 2.6% in October to 2.7% in November. The forecast for core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is for it to remain unchanged at 3.3% year-on-year in November.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to implement a fourth interest rate reduction in a year at its concluding policy meeting in 2024 on Thursday. Analysts anticipate that the ECB will adhere to its data-dependent guidance, reiterating that it 'makes no prior commitment to a specific rate path'. However, ECB President Lagarde's press conference may offer insights into the interest rate outlook. Any dovish remarks from ECB policymakers could influence the Euro (EUR) exchange rate against the US Dollar.

Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.0550, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 10.12.2024 EURUSD

EUR/USD. The price is gathering energy for a strong move.


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The trading day turned out to be sluggish and dull. Volatility is reduced, and the price is aimlessly drifting within a specific price range, accumulating energy for a breakout. It was previously noted that this could be due to either the development of an initial diagonal triangle or a correction in the fourth wave of a downward impulse.

The bullish scenario is prioritized. Confirmation of this will come in the form of a sharp upward breakout beyond the boundaries of the defined range. This will mark the beginning of the formation of the next, third wave of the anticipated upward impulse.
Before this movement, the price is likely to decline as part of the correction process, so entering trades at current values is not advisable. The optimal strategy would be to buy on a breakout of the local maximum.

Investment idea: buy 1.0630, stop loss 1.0600, take profit 1.0850.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 11.12.2024 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

GBPUSD:

​

GBP/USD found room to rally on Tuesday, gaining nearly 0.2% and returning to 1.2800, aiming for a key price level that has challenged bullish momentum in recent days. Pound traders are straining in anticipation of Wednesday's release of US consumer price index (CPI) data.

There is a limited amount of GBP-centric data this week as the UK only has mid-sized economic releases on the calendar, leaving the pair to focus solely on this Wednesday's CPI inflation, which will be one of the last key releases before the Federal Reserve's (Fed) last meeting in 2024. Signs that inflation progress has stalled could kill hopes for a third consecutive rate cut on December 18. With the current rate cut on Wednesday, US CPI inflation for November is expected to rise slightly to 2.7% y/y from the previous reading of 2.6%, while core annual CPI is expected to remain at 3.3%.

GBP/USD is struggling with short-term chart fluctuations near 1.2800, with the pair in a dead zone near 1.2830. Price has been slowly recovering after hitting a bottom near 1.2500 in late November, but bullish momentum is facing challenges.

Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.2800, when fixing above consider Buy positions, when rebounding consider Sell positions.

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for 12.12.2024 EURUSD

EUR/USD. Upside movement on the verge of cancellation.

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Sellers seized control, pushing the price beyond the boundary of the projected initial diagonal triangle. This may signify either a market error or the emergence of a bearish impulse wave within a downward trend.

At the moment, there is an attempt to return to the previous levels, but the price remains outside the range of the expected triangle. If this recovery succeeds, the euro may rise to 1.0670. Being ready to capitalize on this bounce is important, as it could signal the completion of the initial diagonal triangle, a strong bullish indicator.

A key confirmation would be a price consolidation above 1.0520, signaling the strength of buyers. This would support the expectation that the initial diagonal triangle is being finalized, providing a powerful bullish signal.

Investment idea: buy 1.0520, stop loss 1.0500, take profit 1.0670.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 13.12.2024 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

09:00 EET. GBP - GDP volume change

GBPUSD:

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The Pound-Dollar pair posted losses for the third consecutive day, trading near 1.2660 during Asian hours on Friday. The pair is declining as potential tariff threats from the Trump administration have boosted the US Dollar (USD) across the board and created a headwind for the risk-sensitive British Pound (GBP).

In addition, Thursday's release of a better-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) report supported the USD and undermined the GBP/USD pairing. The US Producer Price Index rose 0.4% in November from the previous month, the biggest gain since June, following an upwardly revised 0.3% increase in October. The figure was better than the expected 0.2%.

Traders await the U.S. Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision, which is scheduled for next week. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, financial markets are now fully pricing in the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut on December 18.

Traders are expected to focus on the monthly gross domestic product (GDP) and UK factory data for October, which will be released on Friday. These data will provide an insight into the state of the country's economy.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.

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Fundamental analysis of the market for 16.12.2024 USDJPY

USDJPY:​

The Japanese Yen (JPY) failed to capitalize on modest gains in Monday's Asian session and hit a three-week low against its US counterpart in the final hour. The initial reaction to better-than-expected data on Core Machinery Orders and flash PMI for Japan's manufacturing sector was short-lived amid strengthened expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will not raise interest rates later this week. In addition, bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be less dovish continue to support rising US Treasury yields and prove to be another factor undermining the low-yielding Japanese Yen.

However, lingering geopolitical risks related to the protracted war between Russia and Ukraine and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, as well as concerns over US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans may limit losses for the safe-haven Yen. Traders may also refrain from aggressive directional bets and await key central bank events this week with interest. The Fed is due to announce its decision at the end of its two-day meeting on Wednesday, which will be followed by the crucial Bank of Japan meeting on Thursday and will help determine the next stage of directional movement for the JPY.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 17.12.2024 GBPUSD

GBP/USD. Third wave of the bullish impulse is in the works.


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The GBP/USD pair experienced a minor pullback in the last trading session, but this doesn't detract from the overall bullish outlook. The market is positioned for a significant rise in the third wave of the emerging bullish impulse.
The correction phase appears to be near completion, which indicates that the price is preparing to resume its upward movement.
This provides a good opportunity for traders to enter buy positions at the current level of 1.2690, with a stop loss of 1.2670, aimed at a profit of 1.3200.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 18.12.2024 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision

EURUSD:

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The euro's bullish momentum dissipated on Tuesday, with the pair retreating below 1.0500 as traders focused on the anticipation of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) latest rate meeting in 2024. With European data relatively scarce this week, traders have had to focus on the significant data set from the US.

Despite the release of positive European PMI data for December, euro markets largely ignored numerous speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) officials earlier in the week. The EU services PMI data remains in negative territory due to fears of a deepening economic slowdown in Europe, which continues to worry investors and businesses.

US retail sales data rose to 0.7% m/m, prompting some investors to question whether the Fed should pursue an aggressive rate-cutting strategy, particularly in light of recent inflation figures. Despite this, markets are still pricing in the possibility of a third consecutive Fed rate cut on Wednesday, with 95% probability pointing towards a 25bps rate cut, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.0500, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.

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[Fresh Forex]

Analysis of margin levels for 19.12.2024 USDJPY

USDJPY: medium-term buys are in priority.​

• Long-term trend: temporary uncertainty. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range, at quotes 153.240-153.830. At the moment the pair is investing higher, indicating the strength of buyers.



•Medium-term trend: into longing. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the medium-term trend is located in the range, at quotes 153.400-153.700. At the moment the pair is investing higher, indicating the strength of buyers.

- The area of favorable prices for purchase from the point of view of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the maximum of 19.12.2024.

• The quotation of the upper border of the zone 1/4-153.537.

• The quote of the upper boundary of the 1/2 zone-152.210.

• Intraday targets: updating the highs from 12/19/2024-154.888.

• Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the SNKZ - 159.101.



• Investment recommendations: buying from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern is formed.

• Buy: 152.210-153.537, Take Profit 1-154.888, Take Profit 2-159.101.

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Fundamental analysis of the market for 20.12.2024 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

​

The Bank of England kept its key rate at 4.75%, which was in line with market expectations. However, three members voted for a rate cut, which came as a surprise and emphasized the regulator's softer stance. This reinforced expectations of significant monetary policy easing in 2025 - the BoE is projected to cut the rate up to four times at 0.25%. In comparison, the Fed is planning less aggressive cuts another 1-2 times, which strengthens the US Dollar's position and puts pressure on the Pound.

The economic situation in the UK remains unstable. The Bank of England lowered its GDP growth forecasts for 2024, pointing to weak economic dynamics. Despite the high growth of wages (5.2%), inflation remains above the target level, which requires the preservation of tight monetary policy. At the same time, the regulator noted that its easing will begin only after a steady decline in inflation to 2%.

The fundamental background for the British currency remains negative. Investors will follow further statements of the Bank of England and economic data, but in the near future the pound is likely to continue a gradual decline.

Trading recommendation: Trading mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 23.12.2024 USDJPY

USDJPY:​

Doubts about the Bank of Japan's rate hike plan and widening yield differential between the US and Japan put pressure on the yen.

Traders are expecting a short-term boost from the US consumer confidence index, which will be released on Monday.

The Japanese yen (JPY) starts the new week on a softer note and remains a short distance from the five-month low reached on Friday against its U.S. counterpart. Doubts over when the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again have proven to be a key factor weighing on the JPY. In addition, the recent widening of the yield differential between the US and Japan, backed by the Federal Reserve's (BoJ) tightening stance, is undermining the low-yielding JPY.

Added to this, the overall positive tone in equity markets is reducing demand for the safe-haven yen. Meanwhile, strong inflation data released in Japan on Friday left room for a potential BoJ rate hike in January or March. This, along with subdued US Dollar (USD) price action, did not help the USD/JPY pair to realize upside potential in the Asian session in the absence of any fundamental catalyst.

Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 156.00, when fixing below consider Sell positions, when rebounding consider Buy positions.

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