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Analysis of margin levels for 1 October 2024 USDJPY​

USDJPY: medium-term sells of the pair​

• Long-term trend: temporary uncertainty. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range, of quotations 149.000-149.500. At the moment, the pair is trading lower, indicating the strength of sellers.


• Medium-term trend: goes short. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range, of quotations 150.500-150.700. At the moment, the pair is trading lower, indicating the strength of sellers.

• The area of profitable prices for sell in terms of marginal cover is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 constructed from the minimum 21.11.2023.

• Quotation of the lower boundary of the zone 1/4 – 148.471.

• Quotation of the lower boundary of the zone 1/2 – 149.617.

• Intraday objectives: update the lows from 21.11.2023-147.343.

• Medium-term objectives: test the higher bound of SWCZ –145.043.



• Trading recommendations: sells from the range of favorable prices in the formation of a reversal pattern.

• Sell: 148.471-149.617, Take Profit 1-147.343, Take Profit 2-145.043.

• WCZ (weekly control zone)

• GWCZ (golden weekly control zone)

• SWCZ (silver weekly control zone)

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Fundamental Market Analysis for October 2, 2024 EURUSD
EURUSD:
​

The EUR/USD pair is trading slightly higher around 1.1070 during Asian trading hours on Wednesday. Meanwhile, any signs of rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could weigh on risky assets such as the euro (EUR).

Traders are still assessing the likelihood of a sharp rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in November after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the US central bank is in no hurry and will lower the benchmark rate “over time”. Financial markets now estimate the probability of a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut in November at nearly 37.4%, while the probability of a 25 bps rate cut is 62.6%, according to CME FedWatch Tool data.

Unfavorable economic data from the U.S. on Tuesday undermined the dollar. The US manufacturing PMI from ISM was unchanged at 47.2 in September, weaker than expectations of 47.5. The report pointed to a continued contraction in the US manufacturing sector.

Eurozone inflation declined in September, falling below the European Central Bank's (ECB) target level. The harmonized consumer price index (HICP) rose 1.8% in September, down from 2.2% in August, Eurostat said on Tuesday. The figure was the lowest since April 2021. The eurozone economy may not be out of the woods yet, even despite encouraging inflation data for September. The ECB cut interest rates to 3.50% in September and has also hinted that another cut may be in the near future.

Fears of an expanding war in the Middle East could put pressure on the common currency and boost safe-haven assets such as the U.S. dollar. Iran launched more than 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to retaliate against Iran for the missile attack.

Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.1070, if the level is fixed above consider Buy positions, if the level rebounds consider Sell positions.

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for 03.10.2024 GBPUSD

EUR/USD. The price remains under sales pressure.​

The pressure on the price from sellers continued to be strong enough to continue the decline. As a result, the local minimum was updated, and all this downward movement fits well into impulsive frameworks. Currently, it is assumed that its fifth wave is being formed, which may end below the current values. After that, growth is expected, driven by the formation of a correction.

Due to the downward movement retaining the potential for further development, trading the considered pair is not recommended.

It is advisable to wait for the opportunity to enter buy deals to take the corrective movement, which could turn out to be minor if the price enters a range.

Investment idea: flat.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for October 4, 2024 USDJPY
An event to look out for today:

15:30 GMT+3. USD - Unemployment Rate

USDJPY:

​

The USD/JPY pair is fluctuating in a narrow range in the Asian session on Friday, consolidating its weekly rise to its highest level since 19 August, reached the previous day. Spot prices are currently trading below 147.00, unchanged for the day, as traders prefer to stay on the sidelines ahead of the release of important monthly US employment data.

The US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to show that the country added 140,000 jobs in September, down slightly from 142,000 in the previous month, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%. In addition, average hourly earnings will be looked at to determine the size of the rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at its next meeting in November. This, in turn, will play a key role in fuelling demand for the US Dollar (USD) and provide a meaningful boost to the USD/JPY pair.

Ahead of the key data release, investors lowered bets on more aggressive Fed policy easing amid signs of a still resilient US labour market. This sent the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies, to a one-month high on Thursday. In addition, lower bets for a Bank of Japan rate hike in 2024 as well as political uncertainty ahead of Japan's snap election on 27 October could undermine the Japanese Yen (JPY) and serve as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.

Nevertheless, spot prices continue to rise for the second week in the last three, and if the US employment data does not offer any negative surprises, the fundamental backdrop supports the prospects for further gains. At the same time, persistent geopolitical risks associated with ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the risk of a full-scale war in the region may favour the yen. This may prove to be the only factor restraining bullish traders from aggressive bets on USD/JPY.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level

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