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Elliott wave analysis of the market for 29.10.2024 GBPUSD​

GBP/USD. Price preparing for another wave of decline.​

​

The situation over the past trading day for the pair under consideration changed slightly. The pound tried to grow, but after reaching a local maximum, it stopped again. And all these microscopic movements are taking place inside the presumed correction, likely taking the form of a simple zigzag, with a horizontal triangle serving as the link wave . The specified wave currently appears incomplete, so in the near term, continued work on it is expected, which will likely bring the price to the upper boundary of the descending channel.
After that, presumably, the price will start falling again to form wave [c].
Thus, it is necessary to wait for the beginning of the development of the mentioned wave before entering into sell trades. A break below the level of 1.2935 could serve as a signal to act.

Investment idea: sell 1.2935, stop loss 1.2960, take profit 1.2815.

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Fundamental analysis of the market for 30.10.2024 USDJPY
Event to watch out for today:

14:30 EET. USD - GDP Volume Change

USDJPY:
​

The Japanese yen (JPY) is rising against its US counterpart during Wednesday's Asian session amid concerns that the authorities will intervene in the market to support the domestic currency. However, the rise is not bullish amid expectations that the loss of the parliamentary majority by Japan's ruling coalition could make it difficult for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to further tighten monetary policy. In addition, the optimistic mood in the market is seen as another factor preventing the yen from strengthening.

Traders are also reluctant to make aggressive directional bets and may prefer to take a wait-and-see stance ahead of the BoJ's important decision on Thursday. Investors will also face important macroeconomic data from the US this week - the advance Q3 GDP report today, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index on Thursday and the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. All of these will play a key role in influencing the price dynamics of the US Dollar (USD) in the near term and will give a significant impetus to the USD/JPY pair.

Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Buy orders from the current price level.

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 31.10.2024 EURUSD​

Development of the corrective upward movement will continue.​

As expected, buyers moved to decisive action, and their attempt to grow yielded some positive results. The euro exchange rate against the dollar did indeed rise, but based on the current situation and the evolving wave pattern, this is still insufficient. Most likely, this is only the beginning of the movement. Over the remaining days of the current trading week, a continuation of growth is expected.

We must also remember that, apparently, a correction is underway, which is generally expected to take the form of a simple zigzag.
Thus, in the near future, the price will strive to grow even stronger and establish new local highs, so any previously opened buy positions should be kept active. You can also look for opportunities to open additional trading positions at the current market value.

Investment idea: buy 1.0855, stop loss 1.0830, take profit 1.0950.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 01.11.2024 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

14:30 EET. USD - Change in Non-Farm Payrolls

16:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing Index

EURUSD:

​

The Euro-dollar pair extends its rally to 1.0885 in the early Asian session on Friday. The growth of the major pair is supported by the weakening of the US dollar (USD). All eyes will be on the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data due for release later on Friday.

The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.1% year-on-year in September, up from 2.2% in August, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Thursday. The figure was in line with market expectations. On a month-on-month basis, PCE rose 0.2%, as expected.

Meanwhile, the core PCE price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.7% over the same period, matching the August increase and beating the market estimate of 2.6%. On a month-over-month basis, the core PCE price index rose 0.3%, matching the consensus.

Traders will be watching for the release of U.S. employment data on Friday, including Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. A stronger than expected result could dampen hopes of a rate hike on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut, boosting the Dollar against the Euro (EUR).

The European Central Bank (ECB) noted that inflationary pressures remain high, driven by wage growth. At its last meeting in October, the ECB reaffirmed its commitment to a “data-driven and meeting-by-meeting” approach to future policy decisions. Money markets are now pricing in a 34 basis points (bps) rate cut, down from 42 bps the day before, suggesting that the likelihood of a larger 0.5% rate cut is diminishing.

Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.0850, trading mainly with Sell orders.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 04.11.2024 EURUSD

EURUSD:

​

The EUR/USD pair is recovering from the losses incurred in the previous session, trading at around 1.0880 during Asian hours on Monday. The increase in the value of the pair is attributed to a decline in the value of the US dollar following the release of non-farm payroll data for October that was less robust than anticipated. However, the uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election may lead to a shift in investor sentiment, which could limit the potential for EUR/USD growth.

On Friday, data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the October NFP rose by just 12,000, following a revised September gain of 223,000 (up from 254,000). This figure is well below market expectations of 113,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 4.1% in October, in line with market expectations.

The latest New York Times/Siena College poll, cited by Reuters, indicates that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump are in a close contest in seven battleground states just two days before the US presidential election.

The poll indicates that Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight advantage in Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, while former President Donald Trump has a slight advantage in Arizona. In Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania, the two candidates are in a close race. The poll, conducted between 24 October and 2 November, indicated that all results in these states were within the margin of error of 3.5%.

The euro received a boost from stronger-than-expected economic growth in the third quarter and higher-than-expected inflation in the Eurozone. This prompted traders to revise expectations for a larger-than-usual rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in December. The markets have already factored in a 25-basis-point cut in the ECB's deposit rate in December, which would mark the fourth rate cut this year following reductions in October, September and June.

The preliminary data indicated that the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices in the Eurozone increased to 2.0% year-on-year in October, representing an increase from the previous 1.7% and exceeding the projected 1.9%. Meanwhile, the annualised core inflation rate remained unchanged at 2.7%. Additionally, Eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, representing a doubling of the growth seen in the second quarter and exceeding expectations of 0.2%.

Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.0900, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 05.11.2024 GBPUSD

GBP/USD. The situation remains favorable for purchases.​

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The situation for the analyzed trading pair also did not undergo any significant changes during the past trading day. The attempt to rise gradually lost enthusiasm. The upward movement paused and went in the opposite direction. Most likely, this is a corrective pullback before further impulsive growth.

However, the US presidential election can significantly affect the current situation. Surging volatility may lead to unpredictable movements. Therefore, it is advisable to trade extremely carefully or avoid trading altogether for the next couple of days.

Based on the developing wave pattern, the most likely scenario is a price increase due to the development of further impulsive movement.

Investment idea: buy 1.3000, stop loss 1.2975, take profit 1.3200.

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Fundamental analysis of the market for 06.11.2024 USDJPY

USDJPY:

​

The Japanese yen reached a two-week high against the US dollar during the Asian session on Wednesday, following the release of minutes from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting. The minutes indicated that the central bank plans to maintain its current pace of interest rate hikes, contingent on the accuracy of its economic and price forecasts. However, investors are of the opinion that the current political situation in Japan may present challenges for the BoJ in pursuing further monetary policy tightening. Furthermore, the prevailing positive sentiment towards risk is having an adverse effect on the safe-haven yen.

This, coupled with the surge in US dollar (USD) buying activity, driven by early polls indicating a potential victory for former President Donald Trump, led to a notable intraday recovery of approximately 150 pips in the USD/JPY pair. As the poll results are released to the media, the markets are expected to react in one way or another. This has prompted some more risk-averse traders to exercise caution before positioning the currency pair in a firm direction for the near term.

Trade recommendation: Trading mainly by Buy orders from the current price level.

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 05.11.2024 GBPUSD

GBP/USD. The price is aiming for further impulsive decline.

​

For the British currency, the US presidential election results were also unfavorable, similar to the euro. The price, which had been trying to initiate an impulsive upward movement, resisting individual bursts of activity from sellers, is likely to remain stuck at current local lows, eventually plunging even lower.

The movement is likely to be impulsive and driven by the development of wave [c] of the zigzag. Previous price fluctuations within a specific range are similar to a diverging horizontal triangle, which takes on the role of wave .

Thus, a downward impulsive decline is expected in the near future, and it is recommended to consider the possibility of entering into transactions at current market values.

Investment idea: sell 1.2830, stop loss 1.2855, take profit 1.2630.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 08.11.2024 USDJPY

Events to pay attention to today:

17:00 EET. USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment

18:00 EET. USD - FOMC Member Michelle W. Bowman Speaks

USDJPY:

​

The Japanese yen (JPY) is depreciating against its US counterpart during the Asian session on Friday, reversing a recovery from its lowest level since 30 July. The latest data, released on Thursday, revealed a decline in real wages in Japan during September. This, coupled with the rising cost of living, is exerting downward pressure on household spending and could have an adverse impact on the inflation outlook. It is anticipated that this will result in the Bank of Japan (BoJ) postponing its plans for additional rate hikes, given the current domestic political uncertainty. This is likely to have an adverse impact on the value of the yen.

Furthermore, the prevailing risk-off sentiment is exerting downward pressure on the Japanese yen, which, along with the emergence of US dollar (USD) dip buying, is providing support to the USD/JPY pair. Nonetheless, the recent decline in the value of the yen has prompted the Japanese authorities to issue verbal intervention. Furthermore, the winding down of the Trump trade and the lack of hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve (Fed) serve as a headwind for US Treasury yields, which could deter those betting against the yen and limit the currency pair.

Trade recommendation: We follow the level of 153.00, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.

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Fundamental analysis of the market for 11.11.2024 EURUSD

EURUSD:
​

The Euro-dollar pair continues to experience downward pressure for the second consecutive session, hovering around 1.0720 during Asian trading hours on Monday. The pair is pressured by the strengthening US dollar (USD) and political uncertainty in Germany.

Investors are expecting a less soft stance from the Federal Reserve as Donald Trump is likely to continue to fulfill his campaign promises to impose significant tariffs, including a 10 percent hike on imports and corporate tax cuts.

Analysts believe that if Trump's fiscal policies are implemented, they could lead to an increase in investment, spending and labor demand, raising inflation risks. This could prompt the Fed to adopt a tighter monetary policy, potentially strengthening the US dollar and putting additional pressure on EUR/USD.

However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Thursday that he does not expect Trump's potential return to the White House to affect the Fed's policy decisions in the near term. “We are not guessing, speculating, or assuming what future government decisions will be,” Powell said after the bank decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.50%-4.75%, as expected.

On Friday, the University of Michigan's preliminary index of consumer sentiment rose to 73.0 in November, up from 70.5 in October and above market expectations of 71.0. This favorable data generally strengthened the US dollar.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 12.11.2024 GBPUSD

GBP/USD. Wave [c] in a bearish zigzag is expected to develop.
​

The British currency is not faring well against the US dollar. The pound, like the euro, is unable to cope with the pressure and is gradually losing its positions. However, while the euro has already updated its local lows, the pound is still holding within the expected wave . This is likely temporary, and the exchange rate will soon decline.

This is due to the development of wave [c] in the zigzag that is presumably forming at the moment. This wave will develop in an impulse form, so the movement potentially looks very promising for selling transactions.

Investment idea: sell 1.2860, stop loss 1.2885, take profit 1.2650.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 13.11.2024 USDJPY

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

USDJPY:

​

The Japanese yen (JPY) hit a new low since July 30 against its US counterpart during Wednesday's Asian session, although it managed to defend the psychological 155.00 mark. Despite a rise in Japanese producer prices in October, investors seem convinced that an unstable minority government in Japan could make it difficult for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates further. In addition, concerns that tariffs promised by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump could significantly impact Japanese exports proved to be a key factor undermining the yen.

In addition, expectations that Trump's inflationary import tariffs could limit the Federal Reserve's (Fed) ability to cut interest rates continue to support elevated US bond yields. This further exacerbates the low-yielding Yen, which, along with the bullish US Dollar (USD), acts as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, the recent drop in JPY raises the possibility of intervention from the Japanese authorities. This could deter JPY bears from making new bets ahead of the release of US consumer inflation data later this Wednesday.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 14.11.2024 EURUSD

EUR/USD. The impulsive decline will continue.
​

The previous trading day was again successful for sellers. The price moved down calmly and confidently, updating the previously established local minimum. And there is no light at the end of the tunnel for buyers yet. The decline will continue today and possibly tomorrow. Presumably, the current wave in this movement is wave 5 of the downward impulse. However, it is possible that internal extensions will develop, and then this cascade will stretch for quite a long time, and the impulse will become protracted.

In this regard, it is recommended to keep the previously opened sell transactions active. At the same time, the protective stop loss order should be moved as close as possible to the current market value.

It is worth opening new positions at the update of the current local minimum.

Investment idea: sell 1.0550, stop loss 1.0570, take profit 1.0480.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 15.11.2024 EURUSD

Events to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales

EURUSD:
​

EUR/USD broke a five-day losing streak, trading near 1.0540 during the Asian session on Friday. This rebound is likely due to a downward correction in the US Dollar (USD) following comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell stated that the recent performance of the US economy has been “surprisingly good”, allowing the Federal Reserve the flexibility to gradually lower interest rates.

In addition, the US producer price index (PPI) rose 2.4% year-on-year in October, up from a revised 1.9% increase in September (previously 1.8%) and beating market expectations of 2.3%. Meanwhile, the core producer price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.1% year-on-year, slightly above the 3.0% forecast.

European Central Bank (ECB) board member Isabel Schnabel said on Thursday that interest rate changes should remain the ECB's main policy tool, while bond purchases and forward guidance should be used more sparingly.

ECB reports from the October monetary policy meeting indicate that rate cuts are increasingly being considered. However, ECB officials remain cautious about domestic inflationary pressures, citing high wage growth and sluggish labor productivity. The ECB has emphasized the need to gather more data before making any policy changes.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 18.11.2024 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:
​

The Pound-Dollar pair starts the new week on a subdued note and is consolidating in a range above the round 1.2600 mark, or the lowest level since mid-May, reached on Friday. For now, spot prices appear to have broken a six-day losing streak on the back of a modest decline in the US Dollar, although the fundamental backdrop supports the prospects for an extension of the recent established downtrend.

The US Dollar remains on the defensive below the one-year high (YTD) set last Thursday as bulls took a pause to take a breather after the explosive rally following the US election. However, any meaningful decline in the dollar seems unlikely amid expectations that US President-elect Donald Trump's policies are likely to revive inflationary pressures and limit the scope for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This has been a key driver of the recent rise in US Treasury bond yields, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the US Dollar lies to the upside.

The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, may struggle to attract buyers amid uncertainty over the Bank of England's (BoE) future interest rate path. Data released last week showed that UK wage growth excluding bonuses slowed in September, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% from 4.1%. In addition, UK GDP unexpectedly contracted in September for the first time in five months, reinforcing expectations of a BoE rate cut. Nevertheless, Bank of England members are not expected to cut interest rates at the December meeting.

This, in turn, makes it reasonable to expect strong follow-through buying to confirm that the GBP/USD pair has formed a short-term bottom. Bearish traders, however, can now wait for a sustained breakout and consolidation below the 1.2600 round figure before placing new bets amid a lack of market-significant economic releases on Monday from both the UK and the US.

Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.2600, if consolidated below consider Sell positions, if rebounded consider Buy positions.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 19.11.2024 USDJPY

USDJPY:
​

The Japanese yen (JPY) rose against its US counterpart during Tuesday's Asian session, although it lacked bullish confidence amid uncertainty over the timing of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) next interest rate hike. In addition to this, risk-on sentiment reflected in the overall positive tone in the equity markets may be contributing to the safe-haven yen's decline.

That said, geopolitical risks and lower US Treasury yields could prevent a significant downside for the low-yielding yen. In addition, speculation that Japanese authorities may intervene to support the national currency may deter bears from aggressively betting on the yen. The focus will now shift to Japan's consumer inflation data and global PMIs due out later this week.

Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said Tuesday that “it is crucial to raise wages for all generations with an economic package.”

He also noted that he is “aiming for the cabinet to approve the economic package soon.”

At the time of writing the analysis, the USD/JPY pair is consolidating on the latest round of declines just above the 154.10 level, having lost 0.36% on the day.

Trade recommendation: Trade mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 20.11.2024 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

15:00 EET. EUR - ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

EURUSD:

​

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD was trading between the 1.0550 and 1.0600 levels. It tested the lower boundary but then recovered, adding just 0.14% for the day. The final data on EU Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation had little impact on market movements, and the greenback will have to settle for a limited release schedule this week.

The European core HICP inflation rate remained at 2.0% y/y in October, in line with preliminary data. The data did not generate interest in the euro markets and was not a focus on either side of the bid-ask spread. US data remains inactive until the second half of the trading week, when jobless claims and retail sales data will be released.

On Wednesday, ECB President Lagarde will deliver the opening remarks at the ECB's Financial Stability and Macroprudential Policy Conference. The ECB finds itself in a challenging position, with European inflation holding firm against initial expectations and the broader European economy displaying a lopsided tilt.

The first half of the US trading week will see few economic data releases. On Thursday, average initial jobless claims will be published, which are expected to show a slight increase in the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the week ending 15 November. US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data will be released this week, but will not impact investors until Friday.

Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.0600, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 21.11.2024 GBPUSD

GBP/USD. A decline in the fifth wave of the impulse will continue.


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The attempt to rise turned out to be unsuccessful for the British currency, which was expected. The current wave scenario suggests that a downward impulse is currently developing, which is also wave [c] in a bearish zigzag. In this impulse, presumably, the formation of the fourth wave ended with growth, and the current decline takes on the role of the fifth final wave.

As long as this wave is not complete, the downward movement will continue in the near future, leading to another update of the current local minimum. For this reason, it is recommended to keep open sell positions in operation. You can also consider entering additional transactions.

Investment idea: sell 1.2630, stop loss 1.2650, take profit 1.2570.

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You can find more analytical information on our website​

 

[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 22.11.2024 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:
​

The pound sterling gave up ground on the back of a poor British news calendar. Pound traders are expecting a tight data schedule on Friday.

GBP/USD lost another four-tenths of a percent on Thursday, hitting six-month lows, as underlying weakness in the pound sterling leads the pair further down against the US dollar. Market pressure is building ahead of Friday's key data due for release shortly, capping off this modest week.

Friday will begin with the release of UK retail sales data for October. UK retail sales are expected to have contracted 0.3% m/m compared to September's 0.3%. On a year-on-year basis, UK retail sales growth will decline to 3.4% y/y from the previous figure of 3.9%.

Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) business activity figures will be released on Friday on a rolling basis, with PMI data to be released on both sides of the Atlantic. The UK Manufacturing PMI for November is expected to be unchanged at 49.9, just below contraction, while the UK Services PMI is forecast to rise to 52.1 from 52.0.

Median market forecasts for the U.S. portion of Friday's PMI release schedule suggest a general increase in activity expectations, with the November U.S. manufacturing PMI expected to rise to 48.8 from 48.5. The services PMI component of the PMI will also increase to 55.3 from 55.0.

Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.2570, when fixing above it consider Buy positions, when rebounding consider Sell positions.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 25.11.2024 USDJPY

USDJPY:
​

Lower U.S. bond yields are driving profit taking in the dollar and favoring the yen.The U.S. dollar, which has risen for eight consecutive weeks, is retreating from its highest level since November 2022 as traders opt to lock in profits after an explosive rally following the U.S. election.

Despite stronger Japanese consumer inflation data and statements from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, domestic political uncertainty may prevent the BOJ from tightening monetary policy.

The Japanese yen (JPY) is strengthening against its U.S. counterpart at the start of the new week. US Treasury bond yields fell sharply in response to the nomination of Scott Bessent as US Treasury Secretary. This, in turn, prompted traders to ease their bullish bets on the US Dollar (USD) after its recent rally to a two-year high and directed some flows towards the lower-yielding JPY.

Nevertheless, uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) rate hike plans, along with the prevalence of risk, could prevent any meaningful appreciation in the safe-haven JPY. In addition, expectations that US President-elect Donald Trump's policies could lead to a resurgence in inflation and limit the Federal Reserve (Fed) from slowly cutting interest rates could be a tailwind for US bond yields. This, in turn, favors dollar bulls and should provide support to the USD/JPY pair.

Trade recommendation: Trading mainly with Buy orders from the current price level.

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