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[Fresh Forex]

Analysis of margin levels for 24.12.2024 USDJPY

USDJPY: medium-term purchases are in priority.​

Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range, at 153.240-153.830. At the moment the pair is investing higher, indicating the strength of buyers.

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Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the medium-term trend is located in the range, at 153.350-153.750. At the moment the pair is investing higher, indicating the strength of buyers.

The area of favourable prices for buying from the point of view of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the maximum of 20.12.2024.

The quotation of the upper border of the zone 1/4-156.444.

The quote of the upper boundary of the 1/2 zone-155.065.

Intraday targets: renewal of highs from 20.12.2024-157.848.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower border of the ZNKZ - 161.997.

​

Investment recommendations: buying from the range of favourable prices when a reversal pattern is formed.

Buy: 155.065-153.444, Take Profit 1-157.848, Take Profit 2-161.997.

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[Fresh Forex]

Analysis of margin levels for 26.12.2024 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

EURUSD: medium-term sales are prioritized.​

- Long-term trend: to short. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range, at quotes 1.04750-1.05200. At the moment the pair is investing lower, indicating the strength of sellers.



- Medium-term trend: to short. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the medium-term trend is located in the range, at 1.04870-1.05020 and 1.03930-1.04080. At the moment the pair is investing lower, indicating the strength of sellers.

- The area of favorable prices for selling from the point of view of margin support, is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the minimum of 20.12.2024.

- The quotation of the lower border of the zone 1/4-1.03901.

- The quote of the lower boundary of the 1/2 zone-1.04361.

- Intraday targets: renewal of lows from 20.12.2024-1.03440.

- Medium-term targets: test of the upper boundary of the ZNKZ - 1.01790.



- Investment recommendations: selling from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern is formed.

- Sell: 1.03901-1.04361, Take Profit 1-1.03440, Take Profit 2-1.01790.

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​

 

[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 27.12.2024 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:


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The GBP/USD pair has remained low for the third consecutive day, trading around the 1.2520 mark during Asian hours on Friday.This decline is attributed to low trading activity after the Christmas break and a strengthening US Dollar, driven by growing expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

At its December meeting, the Fed cut interest rates by a quarter point and revised its 2025 forecast to include only two rate cuts, down from the previously projected four. However, the likelihood of additional rate cuts next year was tempered by moderate US PCE inflation data.

Dollar gains may be limited, however, as US Treasury yields remain at low levels on Friday. At the time of writing, 2-year and 10-year bond yields stand at 4.33% and 4.58% respectively.The Pound Sterling (GBP) has weakened against its major counterparts amid rising expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will maintain a dovish policy next year. The UK central bank maintained its key interest rate at 4.75% in December, but a divided vote, with three policymakers in favour of a rate cut, suggested the possibility of a more pronounced easing in 2025.Market expectations for 2025 now include a rate cut of 53 basis points (bps), up from the previously expected 46 bps. This adjustment came after the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 6-3, with three of the nine members in favour of a 25 bps rate cut, which investors took as a clear signal that a dovish shift was on the horizon.

Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.2500, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 30.12.2024 USDJPY

USDJPY:

​

On Monday, the Japanese yen (JPY) continued to gain ground against the US dollar (USD). The USD/JPY pair has remained subdued as the Japanese yen strengthens in anticipation of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raising interest rates in January, following the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data in Tokyo last week.

Jibun Bank's Japan Manufacturing PMI reached 49.6 in December, slightly above the flash estimate of 49.5 and improving from 49.0 in November. While this figure was the highest since September, it still signalled the sixth consecutive month of declining factory activity.

The Nikkei 225 index experienced a decline to 39,950 on Monday, following two days of gains. This decline followed a modest decrease in U.S. futures after Friday's decline on Wall Street, driven by rising Treasury yields and indications of more measured interest rate cuts in 2025.

Trade recommendation: We follow the level of 158.00, if it is fixed above we consider Buy positions, if it bounces back we consider Sell positions.

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[Fresh Forex]

Analysis of margin levels for 31.12.2024 EURUSD

EURUSD: medium-term sales are in priority.
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• Long-term tendency: to short. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range, at quotes 1.03800-1.04100. At the moment the pair is making investment operations inside the mentioned range, indicating temporary uncertainty.

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• Medium-term trend: to short. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the medium-term trend is located in the range, at quotes 1.04870-1.05020 and 1.03930-1.04080. At the moment, the pair is making investment transactions inside the mentioned range, indicating temporary uncertainty.

• The area of favorable selling prices from the point of view of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the minimum of 20.12.2024.

• The quotation of the lower border of the zone 1/4-1.03919.

• The quote of the lower boundary of the 1/2 zone-1.04379.

• Intraday targets: renewal of lows from 20.12.2024-1.03458.

• Medium-term targets: test of the upper boundary of the ZNKZ - 1.01809.

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• Investment recommendations: selling from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern is formed.

• Sell: 1.03919-1.04379, Take Profit 1-1.03458, Take Profit 2-1.01809.

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[Fresh Forex]

Analysis of margin levels for 02.01.2025 GBPUSD

GBPUSD: medium-term sales are in priority.​

Long-term trend: to short. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range, at the quotes 1.26700-1.27100. At the moment the pair is investing lower, indicating the strength of sellers.

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Medium-term trend: to short. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the medium-term trend is located in the range, at 1.26750-1.27050 and 1.25750-1.26050. At the moment the pair is investing lower, indicating the strength of sellers.

The area of favourable selling prices in terms of margin support is located between the zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the low of 20.12.2024.

The quotation of the lower border of the zone 1/4-1.25426.

The quote of the lower boundary of the 1/2 zone-1.26126.

Intraday targets: renewal of lows from 20.12.2024-1.24725.

Medium-term targets: test of the upper boundary of the SNKZ-1.22505.

​

Investment recommendations: selling from the range of favourable prices when a reversal pattern is formed.

Sell: 1.25426-1.26126, Take Profit 1-1.24725, Take Profit 2-1.22505.

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[Fresh Forex]

Analysis of margin levels for 03.01.2025 USDJPY

Event to pay attention to today:

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing Index

USDJPY:

​

The USD/JPY pair is down to 157.20 during Asian trading on Friday. Verbal intervention from the Japanese authorities is providing some support to the Japanese yen (JPY). However, uncertainty over the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy outlook could limit the yen's gains. Markets in Japan are closed for the rest of the week. Traders are awaiting the release of the ISM US Manufacturing PMI for December, which is due on Friday.

Traders will keep a close eye on possible currency intervention by Japanese officials to prevent the yen from falling. Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato last week reiterated his concern over the yen's fall, repeating his warning to take appropriate measures against excessive currency movements.

Next week, the Bank of Japan will release its quarterly report on the regional economy, which will likely include an assessment of whether wage increases are spreading across the country. This report may provide some insight into the BOJ's next policy decision on January 24.

On the other hand, speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates less frequently in 2025 and optimism about the U.S. economy could help boost the dollar. The U.S. central bank has indicated that it will be more cautious in cutting rates as inflation continues to remain above its 2% annualized target and the economy remains strong. In addition, US President-elect Donald Trump's policies are expected to boost growth and potentially spark inflation, which could slow the pace of Fed rate cuts.

Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 157.00, if consolidated below consider Sell positions, if rebounded consider Buy positions.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 06.01.2024 EURUSD

EURUSD:
​

The Euro-dollar pair is declining after rising in the previous session, trading near 1.0300 during Asian hours on Monday. Traders are expected to keep a close eye on the HCOB composite purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the Eurozone and preliminary consumer price index (CPI) data for Germany due later in the day.

EUR/USD faces headwinds as market analysts expect further declines, possibly to parity, due to divergent monetary policy outlooks from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB).

In the Eurozone, ECB policymakers favor maintaining the current pace of monetary policy easing. Markets have already priced in a 113 basis point (bps) cut in ECB interest rates this year, implying at least four 25 bps rate cuts. This outlook reflects growing concerns that Eurozone inflation will not reach the ECB's 2% target.

On Thursday, ECB Governing Council member and Bank of Greece Governor Yannis Stournaras said in an interview with Skai radio that the central bank's benchmark interest rates should fall to “around 2%” by “this fall.” That suggests the ECB is likely to cut the deposit rate at each of its next four meetings.

Fed officials are also signaling a more cautious approach to rate cuts in 2025. On Friday, FRB Richmond President Thomas Barkin emphasized that the benchmark rate should remain restrictive until there is confidence that inflation will return to the 2% target. In addition, Fed Chair Adriana Kugler and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly emphasized that U.S. central bankers will face the difficult task of reducing the pace of monetary policy easing this year.

Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.0300, if consolidated below consider Sell positions, if rebounded consider Buy positions.

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[Fresh Forex]

Analysis of margin levels for 07.01.2025 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services PMI

EURUSD: medium-term purchases are in priority.​

• Long-term trend: to short. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range, at quotes 1.03850-1.04150. At the moment the pair is making investment operations inside the mentioned range, indicating temporary uncertainty.

• Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the medium-term trend is located in the range, at quotes 1.02900-1.03100. At the moment the pair is investing higher, indicating the strength of buyers.
  
  
• The area of favourable prices for purchase from the point of view of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the maximum of 06.01.2025.
  
  
• The quotation of the upper border of the zone 1/4 is 1.03908.
  
  
• The quote of the upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is 1.03448.
  
  
• Intraday targets: renewal of the highs from 06.01.2025 - 1.04368.
  
  
• Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the SNKZ - 1.05923.

• Investment recommendations: buying from the range of favourable prices when a reversal pattern is formed.
  
  
• Buy: 1.03448-1.03908, Take Profit 1-1.04368, Take Profit 2-1.05923.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 08.01.2024 USDJPY

Events to pay attention to today:

15:15 EET. USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes

USDJPY:

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The Japanese Yen (JPY) is approaching a six-month low against the US dollar and appears vulnerable to an extension of its month-long downtrend amid uncertainty surrounding the timing of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) next rate hike.Furthermore, the recent widening of the yield differential between the US and Japan, underpinned by lower expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), confirms a negative outlook for the low-yielding JPY in the near term. Nevertheless, a combination of factors could prevent bears from making new bets on the yen.On Tuesday, Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato made a verbal intervention, which, along with concerns over US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans, geopolitical risks and cautious market sentiment, may provide some support for the safe-haven yen.Investors may also prefer to wait for the publication of the FOMC meeting minutes. Meanwhile, the Fed's 'aggressive' outlook continues to support the underlying bullish tone of the US Dollar (USD), helping the USD/JPY pair to hold above 158.00.

Trade recommendation: Trading mainly by Buy orders from the current price level.

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 09.01.2025 EURUSD


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Following the development of the presumed ending diagonal triangle, the price grew quite well, allowing us to look optimistically towards the future of the single European currency. However, no continuation followed. Instead, the price began to slide down confidently, losing more than half of the previously conquered price levels. For now, this can be seen as a corrective Wave 2 in an emerging upward impulsing movement.

However, if the price continues to fall and updates the lows, the current scenario will need to be revised.

Meanwhile, the price could potentially rise, and do so rather sharply. This would be facilitated by a possible Wave 3 in the anticipated bullish impulse.
One might try to buy at the current market values, setting a protective stop loss at the local minimum.

Investment idea: Buy 1.0320, Stop Loss 1.0265, Take Profit 1.0630.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 10.01.2024 EURUSD

Events to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate

EURUSD:


​

EUR/USD drifted further into bearish territory on Thursday, pulling back a small but steady sixth of a percent and pinning the bid to 1.0300 as the pair hovered near 26-month lows.

European retail sales data in November fell short of expectations, dampening the euro's potential bullish momentum ahead of the release of US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday. EU retail sales fell to an annualised 1.2% y/y in December, well below November's revised 2.1%.

US markets were closed on Thursday for a day of mourning for the death of former President Jimmy Carter, who passed away in December at the age of 100. Market participants got a respite from this week's hectic US data release schedule, but there is another round of Friday's NFP employment data ahead, which will further constrain an already tight market. US job growth is expected to fall slightly in December, while wage growth is expected to remain flat or even decline on a month-on-month basis. Lower wage and job growth could wreak further havoc on the broad market's hopes for a rate cut before 2025, as strong wages keep inflation expectations high. Nevertheless, strong employment numbers mean that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will have little reason to change rates.

Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 1.0280, when fixing below consider Sell positions, when rebounding consider Buy positions.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 13.01.2025 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:
​

Data from the US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) released on Friday reported that non-farm payroll employment (NFP) rose by 256k in December, exceeding market expectations of 160k and beating the revised November figure of 212k (previously reported at 227k).

The GBP/USD pair is entering a bearish consolidation phase at the start of the new week near the 1.2200 mark during the Asian session. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop seems to suggest that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains on the downside.

Furthermore, the recent rise in UK government bond yields has heightened concerns over the UK's financial health, which is a factor undermining the British Pound and further confirming the negative outlook for the GBP/USD pair against a bullish US Dollar (USD) backdrop.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) hit a two-year high on Friday in response to good US jobs data. The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report showed that the US economy added 256,000 jobs in December, beating even the most optimistic estimates, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%, reinforcing expectations of a tight Federal Reserve (Fed) stance.

Investors are convinced that the Fed will pause the rate-cutting cycle at its meeting later this month and are also assessing the possibility of an interest rate hike this year. The outlook remains favourable for US Treasury yields, which, along with risk-off momentum, supports the prospects for further USD strength and additional losses for GBP/USD.

That said, in the absence of any meaningful economic data from the UK and the US, GBP/USD looks vulnerable to further weakness towards below 1.2100 or the November 2023 low.

Trading recommendation: Trading mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.

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