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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 24.03.2025 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

20:00 EET. GBP - BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks

GBPUSD:
​

The GBP/USD pair continues to hold below the round 1.2900 mark and is attracting buyers in the Asian session on Monday.

The US Dollar (USD) started the new week on a weak note and halted its three-day recovery from multi-month lows, which in turn is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair. Despite the Federal Reserve (Fed) raising its inflation forecast, investors seem convinced that a tariff-induced slowdown in the US economy could force the central bank to resume its rate-cutting cycle in the near future.

In fact, the UK central bank has cautioned against assumptions of rate cuts and has also raised its forecast for inflation to peak this year. This suggests that the Bank of England will reduce borrowing costs more slowly than other central banks, including the Fed, which lends further support to the GBP/USD pair.

Moving forward, traders are awaiting the release of flash PMI indices from the UK and the US for meaningful momentum. In addition, speeches from influential FOMC members will stimulate demand for the dollar, which, along with comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, should create short-term trading opportunities for the GBP/USD pair.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.2930, SL 1.2850, TP 1.3060

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 25.03.2025 BTCUSD

BTCUSD: BUY 87000, SL 86500, TP 98000

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With the start of the new trading week, the cryptocurrency market, and Bitcoin in particular, has revived. The price began rising from the very start of the day, leaving bears with no chance and solidifying its gains.

Thus, the formation of the third wave in the upward impulse is presumed to have commenced. Given that the first wave took the form of an initial diagonal triangle, a strong and prolonged impulsive rise is anticipated in the future.
For this reason, entering buy trades appears to be a highly promising trading decision.

Investment idea: BUY 87000, SL 86500, TP 98000.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 26.03.2025 USDJPY

USDJPY:

​

The Japanese Yen (JPY) experienced a decline during the Asian session on Wednesday following the release of the Japanese Services Producer Price Index (PPI), which fell to 3.0% year-on-year in February. This, in conjunction with the overall positive tone in equity markets, undermined the safe-haven yen and led to the USD/JPY pair rising above the psychological 150.00 mark during the last hour. However, a significant decline in the yen seems unlikely, as expectations of strong wage growth supporting consumption and spreading to broader inflationary trends allow the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to continue raising interest rates.

The minutes of the BoJ's January meeting, released on Tuesday, confirmed a hawkish outlook, with policymakers discussing the pace of interest rate hikes. This marks a notable divergence from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) forecast of two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025. Consequently, the narrowing rate differential between Japan and the US should provide a tailwind for the low-yielding Japanese Yen, which, along with subdued US Dollar (USD) price action, will drive the USD/JPY pair lower. Traders may also prefer to wait for the release of the Tokyo Consumer Price Index and US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) on Friday.

Trade recommendation: BUY 150.90, SL 150.20, TP 152.15

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 27.03.2025 BTCUSD

BTCUSD: BUY 87250, SL 85800, TP 97000

Bitcoin continues its desperate struggle against seller pressure. However, it is managing to grow bit by bit. Each step is hard-won, as an instantaneous reaction forces the price to retract or standstill for a while.

It is thought that over time, buyers will be able to break the resistance of their opponents and start growing with greater ease. This could be facilitated by the previously formed initial diagonal triangle, which serves as the first wave in the emerging upward impulse.
Right now, the third wave's extension is likely being formed. If this is indeed the case, we may soon witness a prolonged impulsive upward movement.
Entering buy trades in this situation appears highly promising, so it is recommended to pay attention to this opportunity.

Investment idea: BUY 87250, SL 85800, TP 97000.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 28.03.2024 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

14:30 EET. USD - Core PCE Price Index

EURUSD:

​

The EUR/USD exchange rate experienced a positive shift on Thursday, rising four-tenths of a percentage point and breaking a six-day losing streak that saw it lose 2 per cent from peak to peak. Tariff concerns remain a top priority for investors, but there was a brief respite on Thursday as US President Donald Trump shifted his focus to other matters, at least temporarily.

US GDP for Q4 2024 rose 2.4 per cent, surpassing the anticipated 2.3 per cent. However, Moody's has expressed concerns that tariff hikes and tax cuts could lead to a significant increase in government deficits and a potential downgrade in US debt ratings, resulting in higher Treasury yields.

S&P Global has expressed concerns that US policy uncertainty could potentially hinder global growth, while Fitch Ratings has highlighted the potential impact of current tariffs on smaller economies such as Brazil, India and Vietnam, given the challenges they may face in purchasing US goods. The CBO has revised its 2025 GDP forecast to 1.9 per cent, anticipating this growth rate to persist through 2035 and inflation to decelerate to near zero by 2025. They also forecast that the fiscal deficit will rise to 7.3 per cent of GDP in 2025 without policy adjustment, while interest payments could absorb 5.4 per cent of GDP by 2055.

The release of key US data this week, including the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, scheduled for Friday, will provide further insights into the economic outlook. Investors are hopeful that the recent rise in inflation will be short-lived, with median forecasts predicting a PCE inflation rate of 2.7% year-on-year in February.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.0780, SL 1.0850, TP 1.0695

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 31.03.2024 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

​

The GBP/USD pair is gaining strength and approaching 1.2965 during Asian trading on Monday. Concerns that US President Donald Trump's tariffs will lead to increased inflation and a slowdown in economic growth are exerting downward pressure on the US Dollar (USD) and providing a supportive environment for the major pair.

Last week, Trump announced 25 per cent tariffs on imported cars and light trucks, which will take effect on April 3. This follows an earlier 25 per cent tariff on steel and aluminium, and comes ahead of Trump's expected announcement of further tariffs on Wednesday. Analysts are concerned that these measures will have a negative impact on the US economy, potentially limiting the Federal Reserve's (Fed) ability to reduce interest rates while also contributing to an increase in inflation in the near term. This, in turn, could lead to a weaker US Dollar and a rise in GBP/USD in the near term.

'Recession risks have risen to up to 40 per cent – due to fears that aggressive US policy will hit business and household sentiment,' warned Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan.

Data from the UK showed that retail sales were unexpectedly strong in February, providing support for the Pound Sterling (GBP). UK retail sales rose by 1.0% month-on-month in February, up from 1.4% previously (revised from 1.7%), as reported by the Office for National Statistics on Friday. This figure was stronger than the forecast for a 0.3 per cent decline. Ruth Gregory, an economist at the consultancy Capital Economics, commented on the positive developments, stating that the improved performance in retail sales during the first quarter suggests a potential turnaround in the economy.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.2970, SL 1.2900, TP 1.3030

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 01.04.2025 #NQ100
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#NQ100: BUY 19200, SL 18900, TP 20300​

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The past trading day for the trading instrument proceeded almost exactly as predicted. The price sharply declined, updating the previous local low, but quickly returned afterward.

It is likely that in the near future, buyers will attempt to rise, although this movement is interpreted as part of a correction taking the form of a zigzag. The diagram of the anticipated price movement is marked on the provided chart.
Thus, the development of the corrective Wave 2 in the emerging downward impulse is expected shortly, and it is possible to attempt to profit by entering buy trades at current market values.

Investment idea: BUY 19200, SL 18900, TP 20300.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 02.04.2024 USDJPY

USDJPY:
​

The Japanese Yen (JPY) fails to capitalise on the previous day's modest gains against its US counterpart and attracts fresh sellers during Wednesday's Asian session. The USD/JPY pair, however, remains in the range it has been in since the beginning of this week as traders await a new catalyst before positioning for the next leg of directional movement. As such, attention will remain focused on US President Donald Trump's announcement of retaliatory tariffs later today.

Meanwhile, speculation that the slowdown in the economy caused by the tariffs may force the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to keep policy steady for now is undermining the yen. However, investors seem convinced that the BoJ will continue to raise interest rates amid signs of rising inflation in Japan. This is a significant divergence from the growing confidence that the Federal Reserve (BoJ) will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June, and should support the lower-yielding Japanese Yen.

Trade recommendation: SELL 150.00, SL 150.90, TP 148.60

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 03.04.2024 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

11:00 EET. EUR - Composite PMI

15:30 EET. USD - Initial Jobless Claims Number

EURUSD:

​

EUR/USD saw a bullish spike on Wednesday after the Trump administration announced tariffs that were less severe than many investors expected given President Donald Trump's flurry of tariff threats over the past 72 days. While the specific tariff proposals are unclear, U.S. consumers should prepare for flat 10 percent tariffs on all imports, significant 25 percent tariffs on all automobiles and auto parts, and “reciprocal” tariffs imposed at different rates depending on the country.

In addition, Trump has reiterated his intention to impose additional tariffs on goods such as copper, microchips, and other important imported consumer goods that are vital to the U.S. economy. As these tariffs are likely to drive up consumer prices in the coming months and there is no obvious alternative in the market to obtain foreign goods without incurring high import duties, inflationary pressures are expected to rise soon and persist longer than desired. According to Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, the uncertainty of the Trump administration's trade policy is likely to keep interest rates elevated for an extended period beyond previous expectations.

European economic indicators are likely to remain moderately light for the rest of the trading week. Meanwhile, new US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data is expected this Friday. The NFP report could have a significant impact on the markets as the US economy moves into a post-tariff phase, and the March labor statistics will be a key indicator of the impact of the Trump administration's tariff strategy.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.0910, SL 1.0840, TP 1.1030

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 04.04.2025 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Payrolls

GBPUSD:

​

GBP/USD briefly broke above 1.3200 for the first time in six months on Thursday and climbed to fresh highs amid widespread weakness in the US Dollar. The Trump administration's reciprocal tariffs and flat tariffs knocked the legs out from under market sentiment, despite a delayed reaction to the tariff announcements that followed after US markets closed on Wednesday.

A fairly quiet calendar of economic publications is expected in the UK this week. However, investor attention will be focused on Friday's release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. This data could have a major impact on market sentiment as the US economy enters a post-tariff phase. The March employment report is predicted to be a marker of sorts for the impact of the Trump administration's trade policies.

In addition, the ISM's US services business activity index (PMI) for March, released on Thursday, added to the negativity by falling to 50.8, its lowest level in nine months. The drop in the index was one of the fastest since the pandemic began. Weakening business activity and declining consumer optimism began before the tariffs went into effect, and are unlikely to normalize quickly anytime soon.

President Donald Trump approved the imposition of a 10 percent duty on all imports starting April 5, and the counter tariffs took effect on April 9. Analysts at Fitch Ratings believe U.S. GDP growth will be lower than the March forecast, which had previously been adjusted downward. The agency also warned that the effect of the tariff policy may affect the decisions of the Federal Reserve: the Fed may suspend the easing of monetary policy while it assesses the impact of duties on inflation and labor indicators.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3090, SL 1.3020, TP 1.3200

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 07.04.2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:

​

The EUR/USD pair has shown signs of stabilisation after a decline during the Asian session, reaching 1.0880. For the time being, it appears to have halted its corrective decline from the mid-1.1100 level, which was the highest point since September, reached last week. Spot prices are currently trading around 1.0960, with little change for the day as sentiment remains mixed.

The US Dollar (USD) failed to capitalise on Friday's recovery from a six-month low, and began the new week on a weak note. This was amid speculation that the US economy could enter a recession, and that this would force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume its rate-cutting cycle. Market analysis indicates the likelihood of the Fed implementing four quarter basis point rate cuts in 2025. This, along with a global flight to safety, is leading to a further sharp decline in US Treasury bond yields, which in turn is undermining the US Dollar and providing some support for EUR/USD.

However, traders are likely to exercise caution in making aggressive bullish bets on the common currency, in light of the risk of a further escalation of the trade war between the US and the European Union (EU). The 27-nation bloc faces 25 percent import tariffs on steel and aluminium as well as cars, and reciprocal tariffs of 20 percent on almost all other goods. In addition, on Monday, the European Commission will propose a list of U.S. goods that will be subject to additional duties in response to Trump's duties. This, along with global market fluctuations, could support the dollar and limit EUR/USD.

Moving forward, traders will be looking to the release of German industrial production and trade balance data, as well as Eurozone investor confidence from Sentix for further indications. However, the focus will remain on trade-related events, which will play a key role in influencing broader risk sentiment and driving demand for the dollar. This, in turn, could provide some momentum to EUR/USD and help traders capitalise on short-term opportunities.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.0910, SL 1.1000, TP 1.0825

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 08.04.2025 #EURUSD

EURUSD: SELL 1.1000, SL 1.1050, TP 1.0730​

There was no continuation of growth as expected. The slightest attempt of upward movement was quickly stopped and the price had nothing to do but to calm down, remaining at the same values. The new trading day will probably be marked by a new attempt of impulsive growth. But this time nothing worthwhile will come out of it. The price will grow slightly, and then there will be a strong pressure from the dollar, which will lead to a good downward movement.

This scenario is conditioned by the fact that the formation of the impulse, which is wave 3, has probably ended earlier. The expected decline in this regard will be a corrective wave 4 and is considered as a zigzag by default. In this zigzag, the first wave is developing, so we are at the very beginning of the movement.

Investment idea: SELL 1.1000, SL 1.1050, TP 1.0730.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 09.04.2025 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes

GBPUSD:

​

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair broke a two-day losing streak, finding a technical bounce off the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) just north of the 1.2700 mark. Price action remains in a state of uncertainty ahead of the planned imposition of tariffs in the US, with investors maintaining a subdued outlook in anticipation of key US inflation and sentiment data due for release later this week.

Overall, the week has been relatively quiet on the UK economic data front, with Tuesday providing a welcome respite from the usual deluge of geopolitical and trade headlines that have become the norm for the Trump administration in recent weeks. Nevertheless, several key policymakers from the Federal Reserve (Fed) have provided insights, cautioning that uncertainty and unintended inflationary consequences from US tariffs could complicate, rather than facilitate, the Fed's rate-cutting efforts.

However, traders continue to bet that the Fed will be forced to cut rates before the end of the year, as the negative economic fallout from the same tariffs could lead the U.S. into recession. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, rate swap traders are beginning to raise hopes that the first quarter-point rate cut could come as early as May. However, most betting market participants still see a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut in July as more likely, and 100 bps or more by the end of the year.

On Thursday, US consumer price index (CPI) data will be released, followed on Friday by the producer price index (PPI) and the University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment survey. This will be the latest in a series of key US inflation and sentiment data relating to the 'pre-tariff' period of 2025, which will be a key indicator for the remainder of the calendar year.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.2860, SL 1.2780, TP 1.2960

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 10.04.2025 USDJPY

Event to pay attention to today:

14:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

USDJPY:
​

The Japanese yen (JPY) showed strength during the Asian trading session on Thursday, reacting to the release of producer price index (PPI) data that exceeded market expectations. This macroeconomic signal reinforced speculation about possible further monetary policy tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), keeping the probability of an interest rate hike in the future. Additional support for the yen was provided by positive expectations of a potential trade agreement between Japan and the United States.

Amid the weakening of the US dollar (USD), the USD/JPY pair showed a pullback and fell below the psychologically important level of 147.00, which was also supported by a limited correction of the US currency amid a general recovery in market confidence.

The divergence in monetary expectations between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve remains significant. While Japan is increasingly likely to tighten monetary policy, markets in the US are pricing in a scenario of multiple cuts in the Fed's key interest rate in 2025. This discrepancy has prevented the US dollar from maintaining momentum after an overnight recovery from a weekly low, prompting a reallocation of capital in favor of the more stable yen despite its status as a low-yielding currency.

Improved global risk sentiment, driven by US President Donald Trump's announcement of a temporary suspension of retaliatory tariffs against key trading partners, may also help strengthen the yen as a safe haven asset, especially amid continued uncertainty in international markets.

Trade recommendation: SELL 146.80, SL 147.40, TP 145.40

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 11.04.2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:

​

EUR/USD hit its highest levels in nearly two years on Thursday, breaking through and closing above 1.1200 for the first time in 21 months. Market tensions continue to ease after the Trump administration dropped its own tariffs at the last minute, causing a general weakening in US Dollar flows.

US consumer price index (CPI) inflation fell significantly short of forecasts in March. The core CPI fell to 2.8 per cent year-on-year, a four-year low after nearly eight months above 3.0 per cent. Core CPI inflation also fell to 2.4 per cent year-on-year. Investment markets will face a major challenge if the tariffs reverse the Federal Reserve's (Fed) multi-year efforts to curb inflation.

On Friday, the week will conclude with the release of the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index survey. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index is expected to decline again in April as consumers feel the pressure of the Trump administration's tariff and trade policies, and is likely to fall to a near three-year low of 54.5. In addition, expected consumer inflation data will be released on Friday, with UoM's 1-year and 5-year expected consumer inflation previously standing at 5% and 4.1% respectively.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1305, SL 1.1380, TP 1.1150

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 14.04.2025 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

​

The initial market reaction to US President Donald Trump's decision last week to suspend sweeping reciprocal tariffs for 90 days was short-lived amid heightened fears of a US recession amid an escalating trade war between the US and China. China's 84 per cent tariffs on US goods went into effect on Thursday, and Trump raised duties on Chinese imports to an unprecedented 145 per cent. Given that the US still imports a number of hard-to-replace materials from China, these developments have weakened confidence in the US economy.

Meanwhile, data released last week showed that the US consumer price index (CPI) declined 0.1% in March, while core CPI rose +2.8% year-on-year, below consensus forecasts. In fact, markets are now pricing in the likelihood of a 90 basis point rate cut before the end of this year. Conversely, investors believe the likelihood of a Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cut next month is slightly less likely.

The aforementioned favourable fundamental backdrop supports a positive outlook for spot prices in the near term, although bulls seem reluctant to make aggressive bets and prefer to wait for important UK macro releases. Tuesday will see the release of the all-important monthly employment report, followed by the latest consumer inflation data on Wednesday. In addition, this week investors will be keeping an eye on the release of monthly US retail sales data and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech, which will play a key role in influencing dollar price action. This, in turn, should give a significant impetus to the GBP/USD pair in the second half of the week.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3130, SL 1.3010, TP 1.3310

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 15.04.2025 #BTCUSD

BTCUSD: BUY 85000, SL 83000, TP 95000

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The price did not start flying upwards immediately from the first day of the next trading week, although the situation is favorable for it. The past time was spent to consolidate on the levels, which they managed to occupy and to check how aggressive sellers are ready to act this time. And it seems that they had enough strength only to stop the further growth, no pressure of supermercury could be exerted, which indicates the decrease of interest to sales.

Thus, in the near future the price is very likely to continue to grow. This will lead to the formation of an impulsive upward structure. The minimum target in the form of the value of 95000 is still relevant. However, it may well turn out that the buyers will reach the previously established absolute price maximum.

Investment idea: BUY 85000, SL 83000, TP 95000.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 16.04.2025 USDJPY

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales

20:30 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks

USDJPY:

​

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is recovering after a slight decline the previous day as trade-related uncertainty keeps investors on edge and continues to support traditional safe-haven assets. Adding to this is the data released today that Japan's core machinery orders rose sharply in February and beat market expectations. This, as well as hopes that Japan may strike a trade deal with the US and growing confidence that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates into 2025, have proved to be other factors supporting the Japanese yen.

Meanwhile, the BoJ's hawkish expectations are strongly at odds with rising bets for more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This would further narrow the rate differential between Japan and the US, which in turn would support prospects for further gains in the low-yielding Yen. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, is languishing near multi-year lows amid concerns that the Trump administration's trade policies will hinder US economic growth. This has kept the USD/JPY pair near the more than six-month low reached last week.

Trade recommendation: SELL 142.30, SL 143.70, TP 139.70

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 18.04.2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:


​

EUR/USD is attracting buyers near 1.1370 in the early Asian session on Friday.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the third time this year, bringing its main interest rate to 2.25 per cent in response to US President Donald Trump's slowdown and tariffs. ECB President Christine Lagarde told a news conference that US tariffs on EU goods, which have risen from an average of 3 per cent to 13 per cent, were already hurting the prospects for the European economy.

Analysts believe that the likelihood of a further rate cut in June is still high and that only a significant easing of trade tensions will convince the ECB to pause.

On the other side of the pond, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell took a different stance, saying that a weak economy and high inflation could run counter to the Fed's goals and make a stagflationary scenario possible. His comments reduced the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in June, which boosted the US Dollar (USD) against the Euro. Money market traders have priced in almost 86 bps of a Fed rate cut before the end of 2025.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1350, SL 1.1450, TP 1.1130

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 21.04.2025 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

​

The GBP/USD pair is extending its upward momentum, reaching 1.3350 during the early Asian session on Monday. The rise in the major pair is supported by a weakening US dollar amid growing confidence among traders that US President Donald Trump's economic policies will lead the economy into recession.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and US President Donald Trump discussed “ongoing and productive” trade talks in their first conversation since Trump imposed tariffs on British goods. A Downing Street spokesman said Starmer emphasized his commitment to “free and open trade and the importance of protecting national interests.”

Starmer is seeking to reach an agreement with the U.S. after Trump announced 10 percent tariffs on British goods and 25 percent tariffs on imports of cars, steel and aluminum. Meanwhile, optimism around US-UK trade talks continues to support the British Pound against the US Dollar in the near term.

Nevertheless, “tough” remarks from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) representatives may lift the dollar and limit the main pair's growth. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that escalating rates could spur inflation while undermining growth, making interest rate decisions more difficult. Powell said, “At this point, we are willing to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3380, SL 1.3345, TP 1.3440

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