IKOFX Daily Market Analysis

[team.ikofx]

AUDUSD Surges Higher Post RBA Meeting Minutes

The Aussie dollar was one of the best performers recently, as it was seen trading higher against the US dollar. The Reserve bank of Australia meeting minutes was one of the main catalysts for the pair. The meeting minutes helped the AUDUSD pair to gain traction after the Forex traders saw that as an opportunity to take it higher in the near term. There was a critical resistance around the 0.7750 level, which was cleared as well. The mentioned level might now act as a support for the pair if it moves lower from the current levels.

There is a crucial bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the AUDUSD pair, which managed to hold the downside in the near term. The pair blasted higher after the meeting minutes and also cleared the 200 hour simple moving average. There is a nice bullish candle forming as well on the hourly chart, which is signalling strength in the AUDUSD pair. If the pair moves lower from here, then initial support is around the 200 hour MA. However, the most important one can be seen around the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7643 low to 0.7793 high, which is sitting around the highlighted trend line. Moreover, the 100 hour MA is also aligned around the same area.

On the upside, initial resistance is around the last high of 0.7793. A break above the same might take it towards the 0.7820 level.

Overall, one might consider buying dips in the AUDUSD pair as long as it is trading above the 100 hour MA.

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[team.ikofx]

Can This Be A Break In EURGBP?

The Euro traded higher against the British pound and also managed to clear an important resistance area in the short term. However, the upside reaction after the break was not convincing enough. Both the Euro and the British pound is trading in a strange fashion against the US dollar, so it is getting really hard to understand price action in the EURGBP pair. There is an important release lined up in the UK, as the unemployment data will be published. Moreover, the BOE meeting minutes will also be released. So, there can be a lot of action in the British pound later during the London session.

There was a major bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURGBP pair, which was recently breached by the pair. There were two more things to note, as the pair managed to clear the 200 and 100 hour moving averages. This is suggesting that the recent break could be a real one. However, there is a resistance around the 0.7440 level, which might cause a minor correction in the short term. However, it could find support around the broken trend line, which is now coinciding with the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7373 low to 0.7442 high. So, let’s see how it reacts around the 0.7410 support area if it reaches there.

On the upside, initial resistance is around the last high of 0.7442. A break above the same might set the pair for a test of the 0.7480 level.

Overall, one might consider buying dips in the EURGBP pair as long as it is trading above the 100 hour MA.

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[team.ikofx]

NZDUSD Remains A Good Bet Moving Ahead

The New Zealand dollar was seen trading higher against the US dollar after the FOMC meeting minutes, which somehow weakened the US dollar. The NZDUSD pair traded towards the 0.7570 resistance area where it found sellers. The pair is currently correcting lower and might head towards the 0.7520 support area. In the New Zealand, the Producer Price Index Input was released by the Statistics New Zealand. The outcome was a touch disappointing, as the New Zealand PPI declined by 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2014, whereas the market was expecting only -0.2%. This report also weighed to some extent on the NZDUSD pair. However, there are many supports on the way down for the pair.

There is a critical bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair, which is likely to act as a pivot area for the pair. The pair has an immediate support around the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7440 low to 0.7572 high where buyers might appear. The most important support is around the highlighted trend line where the 50% fib level is also coinciding. The 100 hour MA is also sitting just below the stated trend line. So, there is a major support forming around the 0.7520-10 area where sellers might struggle in the near term.

On the upside, initial resistance is around the last swing high of 0.7572, which if breached might open the doors for a move towards 0.7600.

Overall, one might consider buying dips in the NZDUSD pair as long as it is trading above the highlighted trend line.

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[team.ikofx]

EURUSD At Risk Of A Break Lower

The Euro moved lower against the US dollar and cleared several important support levels including the 1.1380 level. However, the EURUSD pair is again heading towards a critical support area where there is a chance of buyers appearing in the short term. However, if they fail to defend the downside moving ahead, then the pair might dive sharply. There are several important releases lined up during the London session today, which are likely to act as a catalyst for the Euro in the near term. The most important one is the Euro area manufacturing and services PMI. Let us see how the outcome shapes up and affects the Euro moving ahead.

There is a critical bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURUSD pair, which is likely to provide support to the pair moving ahead. However, there are several bearish signs to note from the chart, as the pair is now trading below the 100 and 200 hour moving averages, which is a strong bearish sign in the near term. Moreover, the pair has cleared the 61.8% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.1318 low to 1.1447 high. So, there is a chance that the pair might test the highlighted trend line in the near term where it would be interesting see how the Euro buyers react.

If the EURUSD breaks the stated trend line, then it might head towards the 1.236 extension of the last leg around the 1.1287 level.

Overall, one might consider selling with a break in the EURUSD pair as long as it is trading below the 200 hour MA.

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[team.ikofx]

Can GBPUSD Break Higher?

The British pound managed to hold the ground against the US dollar, but buyers look like struggling to clear an important resistance area. If they continue to struggle, then there is a chance of a move lower in the near term. The US dollar weakened a bit recently, but it does not mean it is out of woods just yet. In the UK, the CBI Distributive Trades Survey will be released by the Confederation of British Industry. The market is expecting a minor improvement this time. So, we need to see how it shapes and whether the GBPUSD pair can break higher in the near term or not.

There is a monster bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the GBPUSD pair, which is acting as a hurdle for the pair on the upside. The most important point is that the pair settled below the 100 hour moving average, which might enforce selling pressure on the pair. However, there is also a fact that the 200 hourly MA is holding the downside in the near term. So, if the pair moves higher from the current levels, then initial hurdle is around the 100 MA, which is sitting around the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.5479 high to 1.4342 low. Any further upside might see the highlighted trend line.

If the GBPUSD pair moves lower from here, then it might find support around the 200 hour MA. A break below the same might ignite losses in the short term.

Overall, one might consider selling around the stated trend line in the GBPUSD pair as long as it is trading below the same.

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[team.ikofx]

Aussie Dollar Looks Poised For Gains

The Aussie dollar struggled a lot against the US dollar and traded lower. There is a major resistance around the 0.7840 area where the Aussie dollar sellers defended the upside time and again. However, there is also a critical support on the downside, which if held, then the AUDUSD pair might gain strength one more time. There are several important releases lined up during the NY session today, including a speech from the fed chairwoman Yellen. Moreover, the US Consumer Confidence will be released by the Conference Board, which is expected to register a reading of 99.6. Let us see how the outcome would be.

There is a monster bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the AUDUSD pair, which is currently protecting downside in the near term. However, there is a bearish sign to note as well, as the pair is now trading below the 100 hour moving average. Still, there is a major point that the pair is finding buyers around the 61.8% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7755 low to the 0.7847 high, which is sitting around the stated trend line. Moreover, the 200 hour MA is sitting just below the highlighted trend line, which means bulls are here to stay, and might take the pair higher in the short term.

On the upside, initial hurdle is around the 100 hour MA, and if buyers break it, then a move towards the 0.7820 level is very likely.

Overall, one might consider buying dips in the AUDUSD pair as long as it is trading above the highlighted trend line.

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[team.ikofx]

EURGBP Looks Like Setting Up For Correction

The Euro was seen trading lower against the British pound, but it looks like the EURGBP pair is finding buyers around the 0.7300-20 support area. There is a chance of a correction in the EURGBP pair, which can be again seen as a selling opportunity. There are a couple of important releases lined up in the Euro zone and the UK, including speeches from both the central banks head – Mario Draghi and Carney. So, one might witness a lot of moves in the EURGBP pair, which is likely to make or break in the near term. We need to see how it trades in the near term and whether it can break the 0.7310 support area or not.

There is a crucial bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURGBP pair, which is likely to act as a magnet for the pair in the near term. The pair is currently testing the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7428 high to 0.7315 low. If the pair manages to clear it, then the next hurdle can be seen around the 100 hour moving average, which is sitting around the 38.2% fib level. The most important resistance is seen around the highlighted trend line where the 200 hour MA is also colliding to act as a barrier for the Euro buyers.

On the downside, the last swing low of 0.7310 might act as a support. A break below the stated level might call for more losses in short term.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the EURGBP pair as long as it is trading below the 200 hour MA.

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[team.ikofx]

Buy Dips In NZDUSD

The New Zealand dollar surged higher against the US dollar recently and blasted above an important level to trade higher. The NZDUSD recent moves suggest that the pair might continue trading higher in the near term. There were a couple of important releases lined up during the Asian session in the New Zealand. The Trade balance report was released by Statistics New Zealand, which registered a reading of $-1.41B in January 2015, compared to the same month of the last year. This was somehow above the forecast and helped the NZDUSD pair in the short term.

There was a critical bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair, which was breached recently by the Kiwi dollar buyers. The pair traded as high as 0.7575 where it found sellers and is currently moving lower. There are several support levels on the way down for the pair starting with the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7420 low to 0.7575 high. However, the most important one is around the broken trend line where sellers are likely to struggle in the near term. There is also a crucial support just below the trend line as the 100 and 200 hour moving averages are colliding, which is likely to act as a barrier for the Kiwi dollar sellers.

On the upside, the last wing high of 0.7575 might act as a resistance, but if buyers clear it then a move towards the 0.7800 swing area is possible.

Overall, one might consider buying dips in the NZDUSD pair as long as it is trading above the broken trend line.

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[team.ikofx]

Euro Nosedived, Eyes More Losses

The Euro was seen trading lower against the US dollar, as the EURUSD pair sellers managed to gain strength and took the pair lower. There were several releases recently in the US, which were on the positive side of the US dollar. It ignited a downside reaction in the EURUSD pair and it moved back towards the 1.1200 support area after breaking an important hurdle. There are again several releases lined up today in the Euro area and the US. The Germany consumer price index will be released by the Statistiches Bundesamt Deutschland today during the London session. If the German CPI fails to impress and dives further, then it might ignited more losses in the EURUSD pair.

There was a major bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURUSD pair, which was cleared by the Euro sellers recently. The downside reaction was very swift in the pair and ignited sharp losses in the short term. The pair moved more than 80 pips lower and cleared an important support area around the 1.1280 level. The EURUSD pair is currently around the oversold area, so there is a chance of a correction from the current levels. However, if the pair moves higher from the current levels, then initial resistance is around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.1378 high to 1.1181 low.

On the downside, a break of the low around the 1.1180 level might ignite sharp losses in the EURUSD pair moving ahead.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies around the 38.2% fib level as long as it is trading below the 50% fib level.

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[team.ikofx]

EURJPY Looks Set For A Correction

The Euro dived sharply against the Japanese yen recently, as the Euro sellers gained strength against most major currencies in the near term. The EURJPY pair tested the 133.40 support area where the Euro buyers just managed to hold the downside. Earlier today, the Capital Spending was released by the Ministry of Finance Japan. The outcome was not on the negative side, as it registered an increase of 2.8% whereas the market was expecting it to stay above the 4%. So, this has caused a minor downside reaction in the Japanese yen, and in turn helped the EURJPY pair in the near term.

There is a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURJPY pair, which might play an important role if the pair moves higher from the current levels. The EURJPY pair after falling towards the 133.40 level found support and managed to correct higher. It failed around the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 135.35 high to 133.43 low. There is still a chance of a move higher towards the highlighted trend line where the Euro sellers might appear again. The 100 and 200 hourly moving averages are also sitting on the way up for the pair, which could act as a pivot area for the pair in the short term.

On the downside, the last low of 133.42 might continue to act as a support. A break below the same could ignite a run towards the 133.00 support area.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies around the 100 MA as long as it is trading below the stated trend line.

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[team.ikofx]

USDCHF Might Continue To Gain Traction

The US dollar continued to trade higher against the Swiss franc, as the latter one got weakened against most major currencies. One key thing to note is the fact that every time the USDCHF pair corrected lower the US dollar buyers appeared to hold the downside. There is a major risk event lined up during the London session, as the Swiss Gross Domestic Product will be released by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs SECO. The market is expecting the Swiss GDP to rise by 1.7%. Let us see how the outcome unfolds and affects the USDCHF pair in the near term.

There is a monster bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDCHF pair, which might provide support to the pair moving ahead. The 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.94494 low to 0.9596 high is also sitting around the highlighted trend line. So, if the pair moves lower from here, then the US dollar buyers could appear around the 0.9560 level. If the US dollar sellers get aggressive and manage to break the stated trend line then more losses towards the 50% fib level is possible. The next level of interest in that situation would be around the 100 hour moving average, which is sitting just above the 1.8% fib level.

On the upside, the last high of 0.9596 might continue to act as a hurdle for the pair, and it would be interesting to see whether the pair can break higher or not.

Overall, one might consider buying dips around the highlighted trend line as long as it is trading above the same.

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[team.ikofx]

Can EURGBP Continue To Hold Ground?

The Euro was seen trading lower against the British pound after trading above the 0.7300 area. It failed around the mentioned level and corrected lower. There is a lot of bearish pressure on the Euro as it was seen trading lower against the US dollar and other major currencies as well. Recent economic releases in the Euro area were on the positive side, but failed to help the Euro in the short term. Today, there are critical releases in the Euro area as well as in the UK. The Markit services PMI will be published, which might impact a lot the EURGBP pair. We need to see how the outcome shapes and affects the pair in the short term.

There is a simple bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURGBP pair, which might act as a resistance if the pair moves higher from the current levels. The pair recently found support around the 61.8% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7238 low to 0.7300 high. It is currently correcting higher, but the recent move might face hurdle around the highlighted trend line. A break above the same might encourage the Euro buyers in the near term. However, this mostly depends on the upcoming economic releases in the Euro area and the UK.

If the EURGBP pair moves lower from the current levels, then the recent low of 0.7255 might act as a support. Any further losses could ignite a move towards the 0.7220 level.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the EURGBP pair as long as it is trading below the highlighted trend line.

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[team.ikofx]

Buy Dips In NZDUSD

The US dollar surged higher against most major currencies, but there was one currency which managed to hold the ground – New Zealand dollar. The NZDUSD pair was seen gaining traction recently and even when the US dollar was rising, but the NZDUSD pair remained above the key support area. There is an important release lined up today during the NY session, as the US initial jobless claims report will be published. Let us see how the US dollar trades after the report, as the market is expecting a decline in the US jobless claims this time. The US factory orders data will also be released later today.

There is a minor bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair, which might act as a support to the pair if it moves lower from the current levels. There is a kind of double top pattern forming on the hourly chart, which might cause a downside reaction in the pair. We need to see if the pair moves lower, then whether the highlighted trend line can manage to hold the downside in the near term or not. The 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7497 low to 0.7609 high is also around the same level. So, the New Zealand dollar buyers might take a stand around the 0.7570 support area.

If NZDUSD pair moves higher from the current levels, then a break above the recent high of 0.7609 might cause more gains in the short term.

Overall, one might consider buying dips in the NZDUSD pair as long as it is trading above the highlighted trend line.

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[team.ikofx]

US NFP To Set Tone For EURUSD

The Euro once again weakened against the US dollar, and even the ECB interest rate decision failed to help the shared currency. The Euro climbed initially against the US dollar after the interest rate decision and then during the press conference fell sharply to create a new low of the year. It almost tested the 1.10 support area and was seen under tremendous bearish pressure in the near term. There are again many risk events lined up today including the Euro zone GDP and the US nonfarm payrolls report. The US NFP is expected to register a massive gain above the 200K mark. Let us see how the outcome shapes up moving ahead.

There is a monster bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURUSD pair, which might act as a hurdle for the pair in the near term. The pair recently fell towards the 1.10 support area where it found buyers to protect the downside. The pair is now correcting higher, which means there is a chance of a break higher. However, initial resistance can be seen around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.1216 high to 1.0987 low. Any further gains might put the pair for a test of the highlighted trend line where the Euro sellers could take a step and prevent upsides.

If EURUSD pair moves lower from here, then the last low of 1.0987 might come into play where there is a chance of buyers appearing.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the EURUSD pair as long as it is trading below the highlighted trend line.

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[team.ikofx]

GBPUSD Struggle Might Continue

The British pound traded lower and was simply crushed against the US dollar after the US labour market report release recently. The GBPUSD pair traded below the 1.5080 support area, which is always considered as a major barrier for sellers. The pair almost tested the 1.50 handle, and is currently attempting to correct higher in the near term. There are several resistances on the way up for the pair. In the US today, the labour market conditions index will be released, which is expected to register a good reading. Let us see how the GBPUSD pair trades after the release.

There was a critical support trend line formed on the hourly chart of the GBPUSD pair, which was holding losses in the pair, but it was breached recently. The pair traded as low as 1.5030 and currently correcting higher. Initial resistance is around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.5251 high to 1.5030 low. The most important one is around the broken trend line, which also coincides with the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last drop. We need to see how the pair reacts when it reaches around the mentioned fib levels. Any major strength is looking impossible at the moment, as the US dollar buyers looks under control at the moment and they might continue to protect gains in GBPUSD.

If GBPUSD pair moves lower from here, then the last low of 1.5030 might come into play, followed by the 1.50 support area.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the GBPUSD pair as long as it is trading below the broken trend line.

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[team.ikofx]

Aussie Dollar Under Pressure Against US dollar

The Aussie dollar traded lower against the US dollar and tested the 0.7660 support area. The AUDUSD pair is under bearish pressure, which means more losses cannot be denied in the short term. In Australia, the NAB´s Business Conditions was released by the National Australia Bank. The outcome was around the expectation, as the reading was of 2 unchanged from the last reading. The Chinese consumer price index is also likely to play a catalyst for the pair in the near term. Let us see how the AUDUSD pair trades moving ahead, and whether more losses are feasible or not.

There is a critical bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the AUDUSD pair, which is likely to act as a pivot area for the pair in the near term. The hourly RSI is around the extreme levels, so there is a chance of a correction from the current levels. However, the pair is likely to struggle around the highlighted bearish trend line where sellers might take control. A break above the same trend line could call for more upsides in the near term. The 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7844 high to 0.7660 low is also just above the stated trend line. So, there is a major resistance forming around the 0.7690-0.7710 area.

If AUDUSD pair fails to break higher and moves back lower, then initial support can be seen around the last low of 0.7660.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the AUDUSD pair as long as it is trading below the highlighted trend line.

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[team.ikofx]

More Losses Feasible In EURGBP

The Euro was seen trading lower against the British pound. There was a lot of bearish pressure on the EURGBP pair and that is the reason why the pair fell towards the 0.7080 level. The recent ECB’s bond buying program is also weighing on the Euro in the near term and causing a lot of downsides in the EURUSD and EURGBP pairs. We need to see how it trades in the short term and whether it can correct higher moving ahead or not. There are some major releases lined up in the UK today, including the industrial production data. Let us see how it plays for the EURGBP pair.

There is a major bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURGBP pair, which might act as a monster barrier for the pair if it corrects higher in the near term. The 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7216 high to 0.7083 low is also sitting around the same area. However, at present it looks like that the pair might head lower in the near term. A break below the 0.7080 level might call for more losses towards the 0.7050 level. If the Euro sellers gain control, then a break below the same could take the pair towards the all-important 0.7010-00 support area where the Euro sellers might struggle.

If EURGBP pair gains momentum and breaks the highlighted trend line, then there is a chance of a major recovery in the near term.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the EURGBP pair as long as it is trading below the highlighted trend line.

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[team.ikofx]

Buying Favoured In NZDUSD

There was a standout currency as the New Zealand dollar was seen trading higher against the US dollar. The NZDUSD pair traded higher and broke an important resistance area to gain upside momentum. There was a crucial release lined up in New Zealand, as the interest rate decision was scheduled. Some investors were thinking that the central bank might surprise this time, but there was no such action and the RBNZ kept the interest rates at 3.5%. This was positive for the New Zealand dollar and helped the currency to trade higher. Moreover, the Food Price Index (FPI) was also released by the Statistics New Zealand, which declined by 0.7% compared to the last time gain of 1.3%.

There is a major bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair, which was breached during the Asian session and paved the way for more gains. The pair is currently testing an important hurdle in the form of 100 hourly moving average, which is just around the 76.4% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7389 high to 0.7161 low. So, there is a chance of a move back lower towards the broken trend line where buyers might appear again. The hourly RSI is well above the 50 level, which suggests that the New Zealand dollar buyers are here to stay.

If the NZDUSD pair continues to trade higher, then a break of the 100 hour MA might push the pair towards the 0.7389 high.

Overall, one might consider buying dips in the NZDUSD pair around the 0.7250 level as long as it stays above 0.7220.

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[team.ikofx]

Can Euro Capitalize Moving Ahead?

There Euro after declining sharply against the US dollar found buyers around the 1.0500 support area. There was a lot of buying interest shown around the mentioned area. There was something to cheer for the Euro buyers recently, as the economic releases were on the positive side in the Euro zone. Today, the Italian Consumer Price Index will be released by the ISTAT, which represents the price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. Let us see how the outcome shapes up, as a better reading might help the Euro in the near term.

There was a monster bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURUSD pair, which was breached recently by the Euro buyers. This particular break can be considered as crucial for the Euro sellers, as it points to the fact that the EURUSD pair might correct a bit from the current levels. Let us see how it trades moving ahead. The most important resistance on the high side is around the 61.8% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.0822 high to 1.0492 low where the 100 hour simple moving average is positioned. A break above the same might encourage the Euro buyers in the near term to take EURUSD higher.

If the EURUSD pair moves lower from the current levels, then the 1.0500 support area might come into play. The mentioned level must hold if the pair has to continue trading higher.

Overall, one might consider buying dips in the EURUSD pair as long as it stays above the 1.00500 support area.

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[team.ikofx]

Can GBPUSD Correct Higher?

The British pound fell sharply during this past week especially against the US dollar. It cleared an important support area around the 1.4950 level which ignited a sharp downside reaction in the short term. The GBPUSD pair even traded below the 1.4800 level, which is a bearish sign. In the UK, the Rightmove House Price Index was released which provides a sample of residential property prices in the UK. The outcome was a bit lower when compared to the last time. So, there is nothing for now for buyers to take it higher. Later during the NY session, the US industrial production report will be released, which can cause some moves in the near term.

There is a critical bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the GBPUSD pair, which is waiting on the upside to act as a resistance if the pair moves higher. The pair looks like forming a short-term base around the 1.4700 support area. So, there is a chance of a correction towards the 1.4850-1.4900 levels. Initial hurdle is around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.5254 high to 1.4698 low. The most important one is around the highlighted trend line which is sitting near term the 38.2% fib level. The hourly RSI is moving up from the extreme oversold readings, which is a positive sign for now.

If the GBPUSD pair moves lower from the current levels, then the last low of 1.4700 level might come into play again.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the GBPUSD pair as long as it stays below the highlighted trend line.

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Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker