LiteForex Analytics

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Brent Crude oil rose yesterday almost by 2%, reaching three-week highs.
The cause for growth was the increased geopolitical tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The visit of Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman to the United States, during which the discussion of the introduction of new restrictive measures against Iran's oil market aimed at reducing exports, supported the market as a whole. Also, the growth was due to the decline in oil production in Venezuela and the reduction in oil reserves in the US (by 2.739 million barrels, according to the API report).

Support and resistance

On the H4 chart, the instrument grows along the upper line of Bollinger Bands, the price range is widened, which indicates a possible continuation of the uptrend. MACD histogram is in the positive area keeping a signal for the opening of long positions.
Support levels: 67.18, 66.98, 66.74, 66.35, 66.10.
Resistance levels: 68.34, 69.25, 69.92, 70.35, 70.77.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the current level with the target at 68.30 and stop-loss at 67.50. Implementation time: 1–3 days.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 66.98 with the target at 66.35 and stop-loss at 67.30. Implementation time: 3–5 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: GBP/USD: waiting for the BoE meeting

Current trend

Wednesday data from the labor market was strong and supported the pound. In January, the unemployment rate fell to long-term lows at around 4.3%. At the same time, the growth of the average wage (with premiums) to 2.8% (above forecasts) almost caught up with the inflation rate. Thus, the decline in income of British households is coming to an end. This, alongside gradual decline in inflation can create a favorable situation for reducing monetary incentives.
Today investors expect the regulator's decision on the interest rate. Probably, it will remain at the current level of 0.5%, however, in the accompanying statement, there may be hints about its increase (it may happen already in May).
GBP is currently supported by the publication of strong data on retail sales in the UK (in February, it rose by 0.8% MoM and 1.5% (YoY)) and the Fed meeting, which disappointed the market. The US regulator did not make hints of a fourfold increase in the interest rate this year but intend to increase it three times instead of two in 2019.

Support and resistance

The general background for the growth of the pound remains favorable. However, the price moving out of the upper border of Bollinger Bands and Stochastic's approach to the overbought zone do not exclude correction to 1.3950 area (Fibo correction 38.2%, middle Bollinger Bands line). With a positive market reaction to the decision of the BoE, the quotes may rise to 1.4260 and 1.4345.
Support levels: 1.4080, 1.3950.
Resistance levels: 1.4180, 1.4260, 1.4345.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the level of 1.4180 with targets at 1.4260, 1.4345 and stop-loss at 1.4140. Short positions may be opened from the level of 1.4080 with the target at 1.3950 and stop-loss at 1.4120 mark.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: GBP/USD: the pound shows moderate growth

Current trend

GBP rose against USD on Friday, resuming the rise after corrective decline. The pressure on USD is put by a prospect for trade wars, after Donald Tramp announced the import duties introduction on steel and aluminum from China.
The USD is also weakened by macroeconomic statistics from the US. New Home Sales in the US in February fell by –0.6% MoM with a forecast of growth of 4.4% MoM. Last month the indicator decreased by –4.7% MoM.
Investors will focus on Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February (14:30 GMT+2) and speeches by the Fed representatives, William Dudley and Loretta Meister.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range expands, freeing a path to new local highs for the "bulls". Until the clarification of the situation, the channel trading strategy should be followed.
MACD indicator is growing preserving a stable buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). There is an opportunity to maintain the existing long positions and open new ones in the short term.
Stochastic shows uncertain dynamics, being in the immediate vicinity of the "80" mark, which is the formal overbought limit of the instrument. It is necessary to wait for the appearance of new trade signals.
Resistance levels: 1.4200, 1.4238, 1.4276.
Support levels: 1.4143, 1.4068, 1.4030, 1.4000.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1.4200 mark, provided that the showings of technical indicators do not contradict the development of the "bullish" trend. Take-profit – 1.4276 or 1.4300. Stop-loss – 1.4143. Implementation period: 2-3 days.
A rebound from the level of 1.4200, as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 1.4143 mark, may become a signal for corrective sales with the target of 1.4030–1.4000. Stop-loss – 1.4200. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The pair имеет is trading in different directions. On Monday, the price reached the 2-month highs around 1.4240 but today lost all the gains and was corrected to 1.4100.
Yesterday, GBP was supported by David Davis, who in his interview to BBC claimed that the United Kingdom achieved the perfect conditions for the transfer period, and the deal between the UK and EU will be made for sure, which supported the pound. There will not be a physical border between North Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, and North Ireland will stay in the customs union.
Today USD is strengthening due to the hope that China and USA will develop mutually acceptable trade conditions. Both parties preferred the constructive stance in the negotiations. Washington insists that Beijing should decrease automobile import fees, buy a large number of American semiconductors, and allow foreign investors to own controlling stakes in the financial sector companies’ stocks. In this, China is ready to buy semiconductors made in the USA instead of South Korea and Taiwan, and the new rules of Chinese enterprises’ owning by foreign companies will be ready by May.

Support and resistance

The price reached the level of 1.4100 (Murray [7/8]) and can fall to the levels of 1.4038 (Murray [6/8]) and 1.3977 (Murray [5/8]), which is confirmed by pointed down Stochastic and MACD histogram, decreasing in the positive zone. In case of the breakout of the level of 1.4160, the instrument can grow to the levels of 1.4244 (2-months highs) and 1.4282 (Murray [+2/8]).
Resistance levels: 1.4160, 1.4244, 1.4282.
Support levels: 1.4100, 1.4038, 1.3977.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the current level with the targets at 1.4038, 1.3977 and stop loss near the level of 1.4130.
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level 1.4160 with the targets at 1.4244, 1.4282 and stop loss 1.4140.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

The price of Brent Crude oil reversed around the three-month highs and is now correcting.
According to API, the volume of oil reserves increased by 5.321 million barrels. Tonight the market is waiting for similar data by EIA. Experts await a slight decrease in volumes by 0.287 million barrels, but these forecasts may be erroneous and the pressure on oil prices may continue.
On the one hand, OPEC+ continue to cut oil production in order to rebalance the market. On the other hand, the increase in prices leads to the activation of American shale companies. Meanwhile, the growth in the number of oil rigs in the US, according to Baker Hughes, has resumed: last week, their number was 804 units. And this is far from the limit – in 2014 their number exceeded 1,500 units.
Regarding this, Saudi Arabia offered Russia to continue cooperation in the oil sector after the OPEC+ agreement ends, for another 10-20 years. It is not clear yet whether it will be accepted. The key Russian players expect on the expansion of production. By 2022, Rosneft plans to increase its oil production by 10%, to 250 million tons.

Support and resistance

Technically, the price tests the 68.75 mark (Murray [4/8]) and, when consolidated below it, it can drop to the levels of 67.18 (Murray [3/8]) and 65.62 (Murray [2/8]). Otherwise, growth may resume to 70.31 (Murray [5/8]) and 71.87 (Murray [6/8]). The probability of decline is confirmed by Stochastic, which leaves the overbought zone.
Support levels: 68.75, 67.18, 65.62.
Resistance levels: 70.31, 71.87.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened below 68.75 mark with targets at 67.18, 65.62 and stop-loss at 69.10.
Long positions may be opened from 69.40 mark with targets of 70.31, 71.87 and the stop-loss at 68.00.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday, USD strengthened against CAD due to the release of strong US GDP data, which exceeded the investors’ expectations and grew from 2.5% to 2.9%. The visit of the leader of North Korea Kim Jong-un to China supports the US currency, too. The experts consider it as an intention of DPRK to start the dialogue with the world society and with USA via Beijing, in particular. The trade negotiations between the USA and China continue. Trump’s Administration is now reviewing the possibility to restrict Chinese investments in enterprises and technologies, sensitive to the national safety. As a result, the decrease of the US stock market slowed, which, after the rapid fall on Tuesday, affected the dollar positively.
CAD is under additional pressure of the decrease in oil prices and some disagreements of Canada and US relating to NAFTA. The market is waiting for Canadian GDP release at 14:30 (GMT+2), the possibility of the growth of the index restricts the further growth of the pair.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading within the upper border and the middle line of Bollinger Bands, the price range is widened, which reflects the possible development of the upward movement. MACD histogram is around the zero line, its volumes are minimal, and the signal line is directed upwards.
Resistance levels: 1.2930, 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3070, 1.3100, 1.3130.
Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2880, 1.2860, 1.2820, 1.2785.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the current level with the target at 1.3000 and stop loss 1.2880. Implementation period: 1–3 days.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.2860 with the target at 1.2800 and stop loss 1.2915. Implementation period: 3–5 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Published on Thursday, February data on personal spending remained the same, as expected. On YoY basis, the indicator made up 0.2%, and on a monthly basis 0.4%. Data from the labor market turned out to be more positive for investors: the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits amounted 215K, continuing the declining trend (which has started early in March).
Today, the pair is calm: due to Good Friday, many of the financial enterprises are on holiday. The news that the USA President Trump can postpone the implementation of the new Agreement on free trade with South Korea supported the euro insignificantly. This week the countries agreed on a US companies access to South Korean automobile and medicine markets and the abolition of the US fees on the import metals.
The investors are waiting for Monday ISM Manufacturing PMI release. March index is expected to decrease from 60.8 to 60.0 points, which will affect USD negatively.

Support and resistance

The price is trading near the level of 1.2329 (Murray [6/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands). After the breakout the growth to the level of 1.2451 (Murray [8/8]) is possible. Otherwise, the instrument can return to the level of 1.2207 (Murray [4/8]). Technical indicators do not give a clear signal. Bollinger Bands are pointed horizontally. MACD histogram is near the zero line, its volumes are insignificant. Stochastic is pointed downward but has entered the oversold area, which reflects the possibility of a reversal.
Resistance levels: 1.2329, 1.2451.
Support levels: 1.2207, 1.2150, 1.2085.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the level of 1.2360 with the target at 1.2451 and stop loss around 1.2320.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.2285 with the target at 1.2007 and stop loss around 1.2310.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: NZD/USD: Murray analysis

On D1 chart, the price tested the 0.7200 mark ([6/8]). This level is seen as key for "bears", as unsuccessful attempts to overcome it continue since February.
Currently, the price is growing again, tending to the level of 0.7263 ([7/8], the midline of Bollinger Bands), and at its breakout quotes may reach the levels of 0.7324 ([8/8], the upper border of Bollinger Bands) and 0.7385 ([+1/8]). The probability of growth is confirmed by Stochastic reversing upwards. Continuation of the decline to the levels of 0.7080 ([4/8]) and 0.7019 ([3/8]) will be possible only if the instrument is consolidated below the 0.7200 mark.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.7200 ([6/8]), 0.7080 ([4/8]), 0.7019 ([3/8]).
Resistance levels: 0.7263 ([7/8]), 0.7324 ([8/8]), 0.7385 ([+1/8]).

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened above the level of 0.7263 with targets at 0.7324, 0.7385 and stop-loss at 0.7235 mark.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 0.7160 with targets at 0.7080, 0.7019 and stop-loss at 0.7200 mark.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

On Monday, prices fell sharply, and Brent Crude oil is currently trading around 67.50.
Quotes were pressured by a decision of the Chinese authorities to impose import duties on 128 US products, among which frozen pork, wine, some types of fruit and steel factory goods. Investors knew of the potential retaliatory measures, but there was a hope that their introduction would not happen while Washington and Beijing are conducting trade consultations.
In addition, the instrument is pressured by first Russia's failure since the beginning of the OPEC agreement+ to comply with its terms and exceeding the quotas of oil production. According to the Russian Minister of Energy Alexander Novak, this was due to increased production of gas condensate due to cold weather and a traditional increase in production before the spring prophylactic works.
In the evening, the market is waiting for the publication of API data on commercial oil reserves in the US. If they grow again, oil prices will continue to decline.

Support and resistance

The technical picture is uncertain. Bollinger Bands have turned down, confirming the downward trend. But Stochastic is reversing in the oversold zone, which indicates a possible upward correction. In the breakout of the 67.96 mark (Murray [7/8]), the instrument can be adjusted to the level of 68.75 (Murray [8/8], the midline of Bollinger Bands). In the breakdown of 67.18 mark (Murray [6/8]), the decline will continue to levels of 66.40 (Murray [5/8]) and 65.62 (Murray [4/8]).
Support levels: 67.18, 66.40, 65.62.
Resistance levels: 67.96, 68.75.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened below the level of 67.18 with targets at 66.40, 65.62 and stop-loss at 67.60.
Long positions may be opened above the level of 67.96 with the target at 68.75 and stop-loss at 67.70.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: FTSE: technical analysis

FTSE, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is turning down to retest its longer MA. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.

FTSE, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is falling from the middle MA of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains just below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is about to test from above its longer MA. The Composite is falling as well.

Key levels

Support levels: 6948.0 (local lows), 6915.0 (February lows), 6847.0 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 7072.0 (local highs), 7100.0 (local highs), 7170.0 (local highs).

Trading tips

The price has turned downwards, having failed its short-term descending trendline. The fall is likely to continue.
Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 6948.0, 6915.0, 6847.0 and stop-loss at 7035.0.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 7100.0 with the target at 7170.0 and stop-loss at 7072.0.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Currently, the main drivers for the price movement are news about the US-China trade confrontation. On Friday, quotes of Brent Crude oil fell to the area of 66.60 after the news that the US administration is working on the possibility to impose another import duties on a number of Chinese goods totaling USD 100 billion. The additional pressure on the instrument was provided by the data of Baker Hughes, according to which the number of oil rigs in the United States began to rise and amounted to 808 units.
Today, quotes are trying to correct in view of President Trump statements, which expressed confidence that China will make concessions, a deal on intellectual property issues will be concluded, and both countries "await an excellent future". In addition, prices are supported by the worsening tensions in the Middle East, related to Israeli air strikes against targets in Syria.

Support and resistance

Technically, the price rose above the level of 67.18 (Murray [6/8]). However, sell positions will become relevant only if the instrument is consolidated above the midline of Bollinger Bands. At the same time, quotes may rise to the area of 68.45-68.75. Possible growth is confirmed by Stochastic, which reversed upwards, and MACD histogram, which decreases in the negative zone. If the instrument consolidates below the 67.18 mark, it may lead to a drop to levels of 66.40 (Murray [5/8]) and 65.62 (Murray [4/8]).
Support levels: 67.18, 66.40, 65.62.
Resistance levels: 68.45, 68.75.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened above the level of 67.50 with targets at 68.45, 68.75 and stop-loss at 67.20.
Short positions will become relevant below 67.18 mark with targets at 66.40, 65.62 and stop-loss at 67.45.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Today the pair continued to grow and exceeded the level of 1.2359 (Murray [5/8], H4).
The USA President Donald Trump tried to calm the market down, saying in his Twitter, that China will make concessions, that intellectual property deal will be made, and a beautiful future expects both of the counties. However, the investors have some doubts, as US Administration is preparing the new list of Chinese goods to be taxed. Chinese authorities have mentioned many times, that they did not want a trading war but will defend government interests to the last.
At the beginning of the week, there was reported that USA-China trade negotiations were deadlocked due to Washington's demand Beijing to stop the subsidizing of the industrial sectors within the program “Made in China 2025”, as there can be used technologies, taken from US companies. Earlier Chinese authorities were ready to decrease US trade deficit by 50 billion through the import of liquefied gas, agricultural product, and luxury items.

Support and resistance

The price is tending to the level of 1.2390 (Murray [3/8]), and in case of the breakout can grow to the levels of 1.2451 (Murray [4/8]) and 1.2512 (Murray [5/8]). However, the area of 1.2390–1.2451 is at the border of the middle term trade range, which reflects the possibility of a reversal and decrease to the levels of 1.2329 (Murray [2/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 1.2207 (Murray [0/8]).
Resistance levels: 1.2390, 1.2451, 1.2512.
Support levels: 1.2329, 1.2207.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.2390 with the targets at 1.2451, 1.2512 and stop loss around 1.2360.
Short positions can be opened after the reversal of the price around the level 1.2390 with the targets at 1.2329, 1.2207 and stop loss around 1.2410.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

Oil prices reached its highs since 2014 around the level of 70.85.
Firstly, the growth of the tense in the Middle East supports the prices. US missile attack on Syria and the possible Russian answer can lead to unpredictable consequences. Unconfirmed reports indicate that insurgents of Yemen have attacked the oil-producing infrastructure of Saudi Arabia company Saudi Aramco for the first time. Secondly, the investors were positive upon the lowering of the tone of the rhetoric of President Trump and General Secretary Xi Jinping, which gives hope for the settlement of USA-China trade dispute. Lastly, EIA decreased this year’s US oil production forecast to 1.37 million barrel per day instead of 1.38 million barrel per day, predicted earlier.
As a result, the market has almost not noticed the growth of API Oil Recourses by 1.76 million barrel.

Support and resistance

The indicators reflect that the price can grow to the levels of 71.87 (Murray [6/8]) and 73.43 (Murray [7/8]): Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are pointed upwards; MACD histogram is in the positive zone. The consolidation of the price below the level of 70.31 can lead to the correction to the area of 68.75 (Murray [4/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 67.18.
Resistance levels: 71.87, 73.43.
Support levels: 70.31, 68.75, 67.96.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the current level with the targets at 71.87, 73.43 and stop loss 70.30.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 70.00 with the targets at 68.75, 67.96 and stop loss 70.40.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: NZD/USD: technical analysis

NZD/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the pair is growing along the upper line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is approaching the border of the overbought zone. The Composite is testing its strong resistance.

NZD/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is testing from above its longer MA, having formed a Bearish divergence with the price. The Composite keeps testing its longer MA from below.

Key levels

Support levels: 0.7350 (March highs), 0.7300 (local lows), 0.7265 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 0.7405 (November 2016 highs), 0.7435 (February highs), 0.7520 (July 2017 highs).

Trading tips

The price is approaching the upper border of a descending channel. There is a chance of a downward rebound.
Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 0.7350, 0.7300, 0.7265 and stop-loss at 0.7410.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7435 with the target at 0.7520 and stop-loss at 0.7405.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: USD/JPY: Murray analysis

On the daily chart, it is seen that since February, the pair is trading within the central Murray channel 104.68–107.81 ([3/8]–[5/8]). Now the price is ready to test its upper border. In case of success, it can grow to the levels of 108.60 ([6/8], H4) and 109.37 ([6/8]). Otherwise, the correction to the levels of 106.25 ([4/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands), 105.50 ([–2/8], H4) can develop.
Technical indicators support the growth роста. Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are reversing upwards, MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone. Worth noting, that the fundamental factors are playing the significant role in the market. Any tightening of the US-China trade conflict can cause a downwards correction despite the buy signals of the indicators.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 107.81 ([5/8]), 108.60 ([6/8], H4), 109.37 ([6/8]).
Support levels: 106.25 ([4/8]), 105.50 ([–2/8], H4), 104.68 ([3/8]).

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 107.81 with the targets at 108.60, 109.47 and stop loss near the level of 107.35.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 107.00 with the targets at 106.25, 105.50 and stop loss near the level of 107.40.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

On Tuesday, the pair attempted a downward correction after the publication of mixed data from the UK labor market.
In February, the unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%, which is the lowest level since 1975. In turn, the wage (with premiums) growth remained at the same level of 2.8% (3MoY), while an increase to 3.0% was expected. Thus, the wages growth still did not exceed the inflation rate, which in February was 2.9% (3MoY). Nevertheless, investors have hope that BoE will increase the interest rate in May, given that the regulator's representatives expect to accelerated increase in average wages due to lower unemployment.
Yesterday's meeting of the British Parliament did not entail significant consequences for the government of Theresa May. The deputies criticised hard the prime minister's decision not to consult with them before striking a missile strike on Syria. Perhaps a law will be passed banning such actions of the government.

Support and resistance

Technically, the price reached the January highs at around 1.4343. If the instrument is consolidated above this level, growth may continue to 1.4400 (Murray [8/8]) and 1.4465 (Murray [+1/8]) marks.
However, technical indicators still allow correction. On H4 chart, Stochastic left the overbought zone, and is going to do this on D1. A serious decrease will be possible only if the instrument is consolidated below the 1.4282 mark (Murray [6/8]) and the midline of Bollinger Bands. Then, the decline is possible to the levels of 1.4221 (Murray [5/8]) and 1.4160 (Murray [4/8]).
Support levels: 1.4282, 1.4221, 1.4160.
Resistance levels: 1.4343, 1.4400, 1.4465.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from 1.4360 mark with targets at 1.4400, 1.4465 and stop-loss at 1.4330.
Short positions may be opened from 1.4265 mark with targets at 1.4221, 1.4160 and stop-loss at 1.4295.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

Today, the pair made a slight attempt to correct after the publication of weak data on inflation in the Eurozone. In March, the basic consumer price index remained unchanged at 1.0% and the general consumer price index was below forecasts amounting to 1.3%.
However, EUR is playing out the positions, which is fueled by fears ща rising tensions in the US-China trade conflict. On Tuesday, it became known that Washington introduced a ban on the supply of American goods and technology to ZTE, the second largest Chinese manufacturer of telecommunications equipment and mobile phones. This is a very sensitive blow for the company, which could lead to bankruptcy in the future. Currently, 25-30% of components in ZTE products are manufactured in the US, and mobile phones use Google’s Android OS. Probably, this decision of the US will have consequences: The PRC's Ministry of Commerce has already stated that it will defend the interests of Chinese companies, but specific response measures have not been announced so far.

Support and resistance

In the near future, the instrument can resume growth, seeking to return to the central Murray channel (1.2390-1.2512). This is evidenced by MACD histogram growing in the positive zone and Stochastic reversing upwards.
The level of 1.2329 (Murray [2/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) is seen as key for the "bears". In case of its breakdown, the price may continue to decline to the area of 1.2207 (Murray [0/8], the bottom line of Bollinger Bands).
Support levels: 1.2329, 1.2207.
Resistance levels: 1.2390, 1.2451, 1.2512.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened above the level of 1.2390 with targets at 1.2451, 1.2512 and stop-loss at 1.2350.
Short positions will become relevant if the instrument consolidates below 1.2329 with the target at 1.2207 and stop-loss at 1.2370.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: USD/JPY: general analysis

Current trend

JPY is going down against USD due to Tuesday’s mixed Japanese data releases. Import level decreased to –0.6% in March from 16.6% in the previous month. Export didn’t meet the expectations of 4.7% and reached 2.1% in March against 1.8% in the previous month. Trade Balance grew to 797.3 billion JPY in March from 2.6 billion JPY in the previous month.
The meeting of the Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and President Donald Trump in Florida haven’t brought great results. At the closing press conference, it was stated that the parties are ready to restart the trade negotiations. America is trying to decrease the trade balance deficit with Japan, which now is 56.1 billion USD. Abe did not achieve the abolition or postponing of US steel and aluminum fees implementation.
On Friday, the investors are waiting for Japanese March inflation data release. The National Consumer Price Index is expected to decrease from 1.5% to 1.1%, and base CPI from 1.0% to 0.9%. In this scenario, JPY will be affected negatively.

Support and resistance

Key “bullish” level is 107.81 (Murray [6/8]), after the breakout the growth to the levels of 108.59 (Murray [7/8]) and 109.37 (Murray [8/8]) is possible. After the breakdown of the level of 107.00 (Murray [5/8]) the downward correction can develop to the level of 106.25 (Murray [4/8]). However, technical indicators reflect the growth. Bollinger Bands are pointed upwards, MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone, and Stochastic is trying to reverse upwards.
Resistance levels: 107.81, 108.59, 109.37.
Support levels: 107.00, 106.25.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 107.81 with the targets at 108.59, 109.37 and stop loss near the level of 107.40.
Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 107.00 with the target at 106.25 and stop loss near the level of 107.40.
The price can reach the target levels within a week.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: Mark Carney disappointed investors

Current trend

On Thursday, after a weak attempt for growth, the pair has been sharply adjusted and is currently trading at around 1.4038.
Investors were disappointed by the comments of the Bank of England's head Mark Carney, who noted that the increase in the interest rate depends on the final deal on Brexit. Carney also noted the weakness of recent data on retail sales and too rapid reduction of inflation. All this has caused investors to doubt that BoE will decide to raise the rate in May, although the probability persists.
Additional pressure on the pound was provided by EU representatives who rejected all proposals of the British party on the Irish border. The question on the border between Northern Ireland, part of the United Kingdom, and the Republic of Ireland, an EU member, is now considered the most important in the negotiations. Both parties agree that the physical border should not exist here after Brexit, but they can not decide how to monitor the trade and movement of citizens.

Support and resistance

Currently, the instrument is testing the 1.4038 mark (Murray [3/8]) and, in its breakdown, may continue to decline to the levels of 1.3960-1.3916 (the bottom line of Bollinger Bands, Murray [2/8]). This is confirmed by indicators: Stochastic is directed downwards, and MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone. After the breakout of 1.4100 mark (Murray [4/8], H4), the growth can continue to 1.4160 (Murray [4/8]) and 1.4221 (Murray [5/8], H4) marks.
Support levels: 1.4038, 1.3960, 1.3916.
Resistance levels: 1.4100, 1.4160, 1.4221.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened below the level of 1.4038 with targets at 1.3960, 1.3916 and stop-loss at 1.4080.
Long positions may be opened above the level of 1.4100 with targets at 1.4160, 1.4221 and stop-loss at 1.4070.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: Murrey analysis

On D1 chart, the price has fixed above the level of 108.60 ([7/8]) and can continue rising to levels of 109.37 ([8/8]) and 110.15 ([+1/8]). However, the instrument going out the upper line of Bollinger Bands and Stochastic in the overbought zone show the possibility of the beginning of the downward correction to the levels of 107.81 ([6/8]) and 107.03 ([5/8], the midline of Bollinger Bands). Other indicators show continued growth: MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone, Bollinger Bands are directed upwards. Generally, a temporary correction is possible within the existing uptrend.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 108.60 ([7/8]), 107.81 ([6/8]), 106.25 ([5/8]).
Resistance levels: 109.37 ([8/8]), 110.15 ([+1/8]).

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from 108.40 mark with targets at 107.81, 106.25 and stop-loss at 108.80.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 109.00 with targets at 109.37, 110.15 and stop-loss at 108.70.
Implementation time: 3-4 days.