LiteForex Analytics

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

On Wednesday, EUR attempted a correction in view of positive German data on unemployment and retail sales.
In April, the growth in retail sales significantly exceeded forecasts and amounted to 2.3%. In May, the unemployment rate fell from 5.3% to 5.2%. The strengthening could be short-lived, as the political crisis in Italy continues to worsen. The new government, which should be formed by Carlo Cottarelli, is unlikely to receive the approval of the parliament, which will lead to new elections in September. Eurosceptics can gain enough votes to form a government again, and they may offer a way out of the EU.
American investors are now following the development of the US-China trade conflict and the publication of data on US GDP. On Tuesday, Donald Trump said he could impose additional duties of USD 50 billion to pressure China in the new round of negotiations. PRC’s authorities confirmed the determination to defend their economic positions. US GDP in Q1 is likely to remain at the same level of 2.3%.
Support and resistance


The consolidation of the price above 1.1657 (Murray [5/8], H4) will give the prospect of growth to 1.1718 (Murray [0/8]) and 1.1780 (the midline of Bollinger Bands). A breakdown of 1.1540 (Murray [1/8], H4) will lead to a decrease to 1.1474 (Murray [-2/8]) and 1.1413 (Murray [-1/8], H4).
Technical indicators give ambiguous signals: Bollinger Bands are pointing down, MACD histogram grows in the negative zone, Stochastics is preparing to leave the oversold zone and form a buy signal.
Support levels: 1.1596, 1.1474, 1.1413.
Resistance levels: 1.1657, 1.1718, 1.1780.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened from 1.1540 with targets at 1.1474, 1.1413 and stop-loss at 1.1580.
Buy positions may be opened above 1.1657 with targets at 1.1718, 1.1780 and stop-loss at 1.1620.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

After a serious decline last Friday, Brent crude oil attempted an upward correction reaching 77.70 (the midline of Bollinger Bands) but cannot consolidate above it.
The instrument is constrained by the increase in the volume of the US commercial oil reserves according to the API (by 1.001 million barrels to 434.9 million barrels), as well as the possibility of an increase in production by 1 million barrels by OPEC countries and Russia in June. This should cover the supply shortage related to interruptions from Iran and Venezuela. European companies aren't leaving the Iranian oil market now, hoping that US sanctions will take effect only after the end of the 180-day preparatory period. In May, the volume of Iranian exports decreased insignificantly, from 2.6 to 2.5 million barrels per day. The place of European companies can be taken by Asian ones. The Chinese Sinopec is currently working on completing a USD 3 billion deal to develop the largest Iranian oil fields.
In the evening, investors are waiting for new EIA data on US oil stocks. The drop of 1.200 million barrels is expected, which can provide serious support to prices.

Support and resistance

If the instrument consolidates above the midline of Bollinger Bands at 78.12 (Murray [+1/8]), growth is possible to 79.68 (Murray [6/8], H4) and 80.47 (Murray [7/8], H4). Otherwise, the price may return to 75.00 (Murray [8/8]).
Technical indicators show ambiguous signals: Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are directed upwards. MACD histogram is declining in the positive zone.
Support levels: 76.56, 75.78, 75.00.
Resistance levels: 78.12, 79.68, 80.47.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened above 78.12 with targets at 79.68, 80.47 and stop-loss at 77.80.
Sell positions may be opened from 76.56 with targets at 75.78, 75.00 and stop-loss at 76.90.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Published on Friday, the May data from the US labor market proved to be strong. The number of Nonfarm Payrolls has grown stronger than forecasts from 159K to 223K. The average wage has expectedly increased by 2.7%, and the unemployment rate has dropped to 3.8%. On the one hand, the good state of the labor market helps raise the Fed's interest rate. However, the complication of trade relations with the EU leads to an increase in the uncertainty of the American economy, which means that the regulator may delay the tightening of monetary policy. James Bullard, the head of the FRB of St. Louis, said this on Friday.
Since June 1, US have implied taxes on EU Canadian and Mexican steel and aluminum. In reply, the will imply taxes on a number of US goods, and EU plans to initiate WTO proceedings. This week in Canada, the G7 leaders will meet to discuss the trade disputes. Beijing can refuse form earlier agreements if the US introduces new taxes on Chinese goods.

Support and resistance

The price returns to Murray main range, consolidating above 1.1718 (Murray [0/8]). In this case, the instrument can reach 1.1840 (Murray [1/8]), 1.1900 and 1.1962 (Murray [2/8], the upper border of Bollinger bands). Otherwise, the pair can return to 1.1540 (Murray [5/8], H4). Technical indicators are ambiguous. Bollinger bands are directed downwards. MACD decreases in the negative zone. Stochastic is directed upwards, reaching the overbought zone.
Resistance levels: 1.1718, 1.1840, 1.1900.
Support levels: 1.1657, 1.1596, 1.1540.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above 1.1718 and the midline of Bollinger bands (1.1760) with the targets at 1.1840, 1.1900 and stop loss 1.1710.
Short positions can be opened below 1.1657 with the targets at 1.1596, 1.1540 and stop loss around of 1.1690.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: Murrey analysis

On D1 chart, the price rose above the level of 109.37 ([6/8]) and tests the midline of Bollinger Bands near 109.70 area. Consolidation of the instrument above this level will give the prospect of growth to 110.93 ([7/8]) and 111.71 ([+2/8], H4). Otherwise, the price may resume decline to the levels of 108.20 ([1/8], H4) and 107.81 ([5/8]).
Technical indicators don't provide a clear signal. MACD histogram stopped declining but is still close to the zero line. Stochastic is pointing down but has approached the oversold zone, so a reverse and the formation of a sell signal are likely.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 109.37 ([6/8]), 108.20 ([1/8], H4), 107.81 ([5/8]).
Resistance levels: 110.00 (weekly maximum), 110.93 ([7/8]), 111.71 ([+2/8], H4).

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened below 109.37 with targets at 108.20, 107.81 and the stop-loss at 109.70.
Long positions may be opened above the level of 110.00 with targets at 110.93, 111.71 and stop-loss at 109.70.
Implementation time: 5-7 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. AUD/USD: correction may be long

Current trend

In June, the Australian dollar against the US one continues to recover after a significant fall in April and early May. The pair returned to the medium-term downward channel and has now reached the upper border of this trend.
The main catalyst for this movement was the fall in the attractiveness of the overbought American currency: investors fix short positions, waiting for a longer upward correction. Moreover, strong economic growth data for Q1 were released in Australia, which gave serious support to AUD.
This week, there will be no key releases for the US dollar, so one should not expect increased interest in the currency.

Support and resistance

The pair stopped at a strong resistance level of 0.7670, which is the upper border of the descending channel, which makes it difficult to pass this mark. On the other hand, a strong fundamental background in Australia and a decline in demand for USD can provide momentum for further growth with the possibility of the upward correction to the levels of 0.7700, 0.7800. From them, the instrument can go down to local minima: one should not expect a fall from the current level, but the overall trend remains descending.
Technical indicators on W1 chart confirm the decline forecast in the medium term: MACD indicates the preservation of the high volume of short positions, and Bollinger Bands are pointing downwards.
Support levels: 0.7600, 0.7560, 0.7530, 0.7505, 0.7480, 0.7450, 0.7410.
Resistance levels: 0.7650, 0.7670, 0.7700, 0.7735, 0.7770, 0.7800.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from levels of 0.7700, 0.7770, 0.7800 with targets at 0.7450, 0.7410 and stop-loss at 0.7870.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The pair is influenced by contradictory factors. On the one hand, positive British Service, Manufacturing, and Construction PMI inspired the investors and gave hopes for reduction of BoE monetary stimulus. On the other hand, Brexit situation is incurring significant risks for the British economy. In general, business is preparing for hard times. Representatives of major European and British companies have warned Prime Minister Theresa May about a possible reduction in investment, which would cause a reduction in jobs number.
The lack of a compromise upon Brexit in the British government worsens the situation. Recently, Theresa May proposed to leave the UK in the EU United Customs zone temporary, which would let avoid the physical borders in Ireland. However, this plan has raised objections from a number of ministers, including David Davis, Boris Johnson, and Liam Fox, who insisted that the UK's stay within the customs union should be limited to a specific unmovable deadline.

Support and resistance

Technically, the pair has been growing for two weeks but was corrected to the midline of Bollinger bands. In the case of a breakdown below the level of 1.3366 (Murray [6/8]), a further decline to the level of 1.3300 (Murray [4/8]) is possible, which is confirmed by indicators: Stochastic reversed downwards, MACD decreases in the positive zone. The key "bullish" level is 1.3427 (Murray [0/8]). In case of the breakout, the price can grow to 1.3488 (Murray [+2/8]), 1.3540.
Resistance levels: 1.3427, 1.3488.
Support levels: 1.3366, 1.3300.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3366 with the target at 1.3300 and a stop loss around 1.3400.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.3427 with the targets at 1.3488, 1.3540 and stop loss 1.3390.
Implementation period: 3–5 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: general review

Current trend

This week, the pair rose to around 110.65 amid expectations of an interest rate increase by the Fed, the decision on which will be made today.
It is expected that the regulator will raise the rate from 1.75% to 2.00%. Nevertheless, the main intrigue is how much more increases should be expected this year – one or two. Jerome Powell, the Fed's Head, can answer this question at today's press-conference. In conditions of steady growth of inflation, the basic level of which exceeds the target level of 2.0% for three months in a row, the aggressive increase in rates looks logical. However, a trade conflict with the EU and Canada can make the FOMC officials be more cautious.
On Thursday, April data on industrial production in Japan will be published. It is expected that, on an annual basis, the figure will increase from 2.5% to 3.1%, which is unlikely to significantly strengthen the yen, as investors' attention will continue to focus on the results of the meeting of the American regulator.

Support and resistance

Currently, the price approaches the level of 110.93 (Murray [7/8]) and after its breakout can go to the level of 111.40 (the May high area). A breakdown of the midline of Bollinger Bands around 109.85 will give a prospect of a decline to 109.37 (Murray [6/8]) and 108.75. Technical indicators show growth. Stochastic is directed upwards, and MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone.
Support levels: 109.85, 109.37, 108.75.
Resistance levels: 110.93, 111.40.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 110.93, 111.40 and stop-loss at 110.20.
Short positions may be opened below the level of 109.85 with targets at 109.37, 108.75 and stop-loss at 110.10.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

Yesterday, the pair dropped against the background of the results of the Fed's meeting. The key interest rate was raised from 1.75% to 2.00%, and the majority of the Committee members expect two more increases this year.
Today, GBP won back its lost positions, which was facilitated by strong May data on the UK retail sales. YoY the indicator grew from 1.4% to 3.9%. Increased volumes of retail sales were promoted by warm weather and Prince Harry's wedding. These strong data did not clarify the British economy state. After March decline, the indicator has been growing for the second month in a row. But this growth is caused by temporary factors and in June the decline may resume. The Bank of England may need new data to make a decision on the interest rate. Many investors expect its increase in August, especially after the deputy head of the British regulator, Dave Ramsden, spoke last week in favor of rising lending costs.

Support and resistance

Currently, the price is testing the 1.3427 level (Murrey [+1/8]) and, if it consolidates above it, the price can continue to rise to the levels of 1.3540 and 1.3671 (Murrey [0/8]). The key level for the "bears" seems to be 1.3365 (midline of Bollinger Bands). If it is broken down, the price may drop to 1.3300 and 1.3220 (the bottom line of Bollinger Bands). Technical indicators generally indicate growth. MACD histogram is reducing in the negative zone, and Stochastic is reversing upwards.
Support levels: 1.3365, 1.3300, 1.3220.
Resistance levels: 1.3427, 1.3540, 1.3671.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened above 1.3427 with targets at 1.3540, 1.3671 and stop-loss at 1.3380.
Sell positions may be opened below 1.3365 with targets at 1.3300, 1.3220 and stop-loss at 1.3400.
Implementation period: 5-7 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: the euro is recovering

Current trend

EUR grew against USD on Friday, having regained some of its losses. Active sales of EUR were due to the market reaction to the ECB meeting outcome.
The member of the board of ECB governors and the head of the Bank of Austria Ewald Novotny tried to calm down the investors. He noted that inflation is very close to the target level of 2.0% and the ECB is embarking on a process of monetary policy normalizing. However, their actions will not be sharp and will take a significant amount of time.
Published on Friday, the final May inflation data did not change. Consumer Price index remained unchanged at the level of 1.9%. On the one hand, high inflation indicators will push the European regulator to a gradual cancellation of monetary incentives. On the other hand, according to Mario Draghi, the ECB does not take into account the risks associated with the introduction of the US trade duties on metals produced in the EU. If the situation worsens, monetary policy tightening may be postponed.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range widens but not enough for "bearish" trend to develop. MACD declines keeping a sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic declines locating close to its minimum levels, indicating oversold EUR.
Technical indicators don’t contradict "bearish" trend development but corrective growth is possible.
Resistance levels: 1.1625, 1.1659, 1.1688, 1.1711.
Support levels: 1.1572, 1.1541, 1.1508.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the rebound from the support level of 1.1572, with the breakout of 1.1600. Take-profit — 1.1688, 1.1711. Stop-loss — 1.1550.
A breakdown of 1.1572 may be a signal to sell with targets at 1.1508, 1.1500 or 1.1475. Stop-loss — 1.1625.
Implementation period: 2-3 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: the dollar is dropping

Current trend

USD showed a stable decrease against JPY on Tuesday, updating the local low of June 11. The growth of the Japanese currency is fueled by the growing US-China trade conflict.
At the same time, the dollar is relatively stable, as it receives support from the Fed's actions aimed at gradual tightening of monetary policy.
Today, the pair is also trading in an upward direction. Traders focus on the published minutes of the April meeting of the Bank of Japan, which in many respects turned out to be neutral. According to the protocol, only one official spoke in favor of additional stimulation measures, while the overwhelming majority of board members advocated the preservation of the monetary policy vector.

Support and resistance

On the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are gradually reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing, reflecting ambiguous nature of trading in recent days. MACD reversed downwards having formed a sell signal (located under the signal line). Stochastic is going down and is located in the middle of its area.
Technical indicators do not contradict the further development of the "bearish" trend in the short and/or ultra-short term. The existing short positions should be left open for some time.
Resistance levels: 110.25, 110.60, 111.00, 111.38.
Support levels: 109.90, 109.53, 109.17, 108.83.

Trading tips

To open long positions one can rely on the breakout of the level of 110.25 if signals for the uptrend development in the short and/or ultra-short term emerge. Take-profit — 111.00. Stop-loss — 109.80.
The rebound from the level of 110.25 as from resistance, with the subsequent breakdown of 109.90, can become a signal to new sales with target at 109.17, 109.00 or 108.83. Stop-loss — 110.40.
Implementation period: 2-3 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. FTSE: technical analysis

FTSE, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading on the lower line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains slightly above its moving averages that turned horizontally. The RSI is falling towards the border of the oversold zone. The Composite is approaching its most recent support.

FTSE, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is correcting up from the lower line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that start turning down. The RSI is about to test from below its longer MA. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.

Key levels

Support levels: 7540.0 (local lows), 7470.0 (local lows), 7445.0 (March 2017 highs).
Resistance levels: 7635.0 (local highs), 7680.0 (local highs), 7770.0 (local highs).

Trading tips

There is a chance of a short-term upward correction, after which the fall will continue.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 7540.0 with targets at 7470.0, 7445.0 and stop-loss at 7585.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 7680.0 with the target at 7770.0 and stop-loss at 7635.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. CAC: technical analysis

CAC, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading on the lower line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains just below its moving averages that start turning down. The RSI is approaching the border of the oversold zone. The Composite is about to test from below its longer MA.

CAC, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is correcting down from the middle MA of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is testing from above its longer MA. The Composite is about to test its longer MA as well.

Key levels

Support levels: 5300.0 (local lows), 5285.0 (local lows), 5265.0 (November 2017 lows).
Resistance levels: 5400.0 (local highs), 5435.0 (local highs), 5500.0 (local highs).

Trading tips

The fall is likely to continue.
Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 5300.0, 5285.0, 5265.0 and stop-loss at 5375.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 5435.0 with the target at 5500.0 and stop-loss at 5400.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: the dollar is growing

Current trend

USD moderately rose against JPY on Thursday, continuing to develop an uptrend formed earlier this week. The instrument was strengthened due to technical factors, as well as weakened JPY at the backdrop of pessimistic statistics from Japan.
MoM Retail Trade fell to –1.7% in May from 1.4% a month earlier. YoY index fell to 0.6% in May from 1.5% a month earlier.
Today, the pair is also declining, despite the publication of optimistic statistics from Japan. Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) grew by 0.7% in June after the growth to 0.5% a month earlier, with the forecast of +0.6%. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to a record 2.2% in May against 2.5% earlier. Industrial production (YoY) grew by 4.2% which turned out to be significantly better than previous value of +2.6% and the forecast of +1.1%.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range slightly widens from above and limiting the further development of "bullish" trend. MACD indicator is growing keeping a new buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic keeps its upward direction, but is approaching its maximum values, which signals an overbought dollar.
Current indicators do not contradict the further development of the "bullish" trend in the short term.
Resistance levels: 110.77, 111.00, 111.38.
Support levels: 110.47, 110.25, 110.00, 109.76.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 110.77. Take-profit — 111.38 or 111.50. Stop-loss — 110.50. Implementation period: 2 days.
A rebound from the level of 110.77, as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 110.50 or 110.47, may become a signal for corrective sales with the target at 110.00. Stop-loss — 110.70 or 110.80. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

At the beginning of the week, the pair is declining, and it is now trading around 1.1630. Today’s EU Markit Manufacturing PMI slightly decreased from 55.0 to 54.9 points.
EUR is under pressure of German government crisis. Leader of the Christian Social Union (CSU) Horst Seehofer intends to leave the post of Internal Minister in Merkel’s government, as he does not agree with the Chancellor's migration policy. CSU members insist on tightening the fight against illegal migration, up to the ban on new migrants entering the country.
On Monday, negotiations between the leaders of the CSU and CDU (Christian Democratic Union, Angela Merkel) are planned to find a compromise in the migration issue. The failure can lead to the disintegration of the German ruling coalition, which will inevitably weaken EUR.

Support and resistance

The price is testing the midline of Bollinger bands 1.1670 (D1) and cannot consolidate above it. In case of German government crisis worsening, the instrument can fall to the levels of 1.1540 (May’s lows area) and 1.1474 (Murrey [–2/8]). The breakout of the midline of Bollinger bands and the level of 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8]) will let the price grow to the level of 1.1840 (Murrey [1/8], the upper border of Bollinger bands). Technical indicators confirm the possibility of growth. Stochastic turns up, MACD histogram decreases in the negative zone.
Resistance levels: 1.1718, 1.1840.
Support levels: 1.1540, 1.1474.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.1718 with the target at 1.1840 and stop loss 1.1670.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.1600 with the targets at 1.1540, 1.1474 and stop loss around 1.1640.
Implementation period: 3–5 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. WTI Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

On Tuesday, oil prices grew and reached 73.35, but the market is influenced by ambiguous factors.
The risks of Libya oil supply interruptions support the instrument. Yesterday, the representatives of the Libyan National Oil Corp announced that the shipment from a number of ports is unavailable, so the reduction of production in the country by 850,000 barrels per day is expected. On the other hand, the price is under pressure of the United Arab Emirates government's statement that the country has the opportunity to significantly increase production to prevent a supply shortage in the market. Previously, Saudi Arabia said the same thing. Thus, the expected by the end of the year, Iran "black gold" export decrease will be balanced by other OPEC members’ production growth.
In the evening, investors are waiting for API Crude Oil Stocks change release. If the index falls, it will affect the price negatively.

Support and resistance

The key "bullish" level is 73.43 (Murrey [7/8]). After the breakout, the price can grow to 75.00 (Murrey [8/8]). Otherwise, a downward correction to 71.87 (the lower line of Bollinger bands, Murrey [6/8]) and 70.31 (Murrey [5/8]) is expected.
Technical indicators do not exclude the fall possibility. Bollinger bands are directed upwards. Stochastic entered the overbought zone and can reverse. MACD decreases in the positive zone.
Resistance levels: 73.43, 75.00.
Support levels: 71.87, 70.31.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the level 72.80 with the targets at 71.87, 70.31 and stop loss 73.40.
Long positions can be opened when the price is set above the level of 73.43 with the target at 75.00 and stop loss around 72.80.
Implementation period: 3–5 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: general review

Current trend

This week, the pair is corrected downwards due to weak economic statistics from Japan.
Tankan Large Manufacturing Index in Q2 2018 dropped from 24 to 21 points and Manufacturing PMI in June dropped from 53.1 to 53.0 points.
Also, JPY is under pressure of the decision of the People's Bank of China not to use the yuan as a weapon in the trade war with the US. This was announced by the head of the Chinese regulator Yi Gang. In general, the potential to strengthen JPY as a safe haven asset remains, especially if the US-China trade conflict continues to worsen.
In addition, on Wednesday, the Japanese Bank of Japan board member Yutaka Harada addressed the leaders of Japanese business. The official noted that the current level of unemployment in the country (2.2%) is too high and to achieve inflation level of 2.0% it is necessary to further reduce it. Therefore, the Bank of Japan intends to continue soft monetary policy.

Support and resistance

The price has fallen to the midline of Bollinger Bands to 110.15. The breakdown of this level will give the prospect of further decline to 109.37 (Murrey [4/8], the bottom line of Bollinger Bands) and 108.59 (Murrey [5/8]). This possibility is indicated by Stochastic which has left the overbought area. The key to the "bulls" is 110.93 (Murrey [6/8]), which was tested unsuccessfully in May. Consolidation of the price above it will cause an increase to 111.72 (Murrey [7/8]) and 112.50 (Murrey [8/8]).
Support levels: 110.15, 109.37, 108.59.
Resistance levels: 110.93, 111.72, 112.50.

Trading tips

Buy positions can be opened above 110.93 with targets at 111.72, 112.50 and stop-loss at 110.50.
Sell positions may be opened below 110.15 with targets at 109.37, 108.59 and stop-loss at 110.40.
Implementation period: 3-5 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

GBP continues strengthening due to positive economic statistics and is testing the level of 1.3244 (Murrey [5/8]).
Wednesday's data on the Services PMI in the UK proved to be strong and strengthened GBP. In June, the indicator reached the 8-month maximum at 55.1 points. According to experts, this could lead to GDP growth by 0.4% in the UK in Q2 2018 and push the Bank of England to increase the interest rate at an August meeting. However, for such a decision, inflation in the country should be above the target level of 2.0%. Currently, this indicator continues to decline and has already reached the level of 2.4%.
The situation with Brexit remains controversial. Theresa May's Cabinet developed a new plan for customs cooperation with the EU. According to it, after leaving the EU, Britain will be able to set its own tariffs on imported goods while transit products going to the EU through the UK territory will have to be taxed by the EU duties.

Support and resistance

The price is testing the level of 1.3244 (Murrey [5/8]), the breakdown of which will give the prospect of growth to 1.3305 (Murrey [6/8]), 1.3366 (Murrey [7/8]). The key level for the "bears" seems to be 1.3183 (Murrey [2/8]), midline of Bollinger Bands). If it is broken down, the price may decline to 1.3122 (Murrey [3/8]) and 1.3061 (Murrey [2/8]). Technical indicators don’t provide a clear signal. Stochastic has reversed downwards, and MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone.
Support levels: 1.3366, 1.3305.
Resistance levels: 1.3061, 1.3122, 1.3183.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened from 1.3260 with targets at 1.3305, 1.3366 and stop-loss at 1.3220. Sell positions may be opened from 1.3183 with targets at 1.3122, 1.3061 and stop-loss at 1.3220.
Implementation time: 3-5 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

Today, US trade duties on goods produced in China came into effect, totaling USD 34 billion. According to experts, the impact of tariffs on the Chinese economy will be noticeable in 3-6 months and may lead to a 0.2% decrease in its growth. Now investors are waiting for the official reaction of the Chinese authorities, in particular, the press conference of the Premier of the State Council of the PRC, Li Keqiang. Beijing's response may be symmetric, but the US administration warned that if the conflict escalated, it could introduce additional duties on Chinese goods totaling USD 500 billion.
In the evening, investors expect the publication of data on Nonfarm payrolls in the US. The indicator can decline from 223K to 195K. Thursday's statistics on ADP Employment Change also proved to be weak: in June the indicator dropped from 189K to 177K.
Support and resistance


The price is testing 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8]) and in case of consolidation above it the price can reach the levels of 1.1840 (Murrey [1/8]) and 1.1962 (Murrey [2/8]). A breakdown of the midline of Bollinger Bands at 1.1650 will give the prospect of a decline to the level of 1.1530 (the bottom line of Bollinger Bands). Indicators show growth. Stochastic is directed upwards, and MACD histogram is about to move to the positive zone.
Support levels: 1.1650, 1.1530.
Resistance levels: 1.1718, 1.1840, 1.1962.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened above the level of 1.1718 with target at 1.1840 and stop-loss at 1.1670.
Sell positions may be opened above the level of 1.1650 with target at 1.1530 and stop-loss at 1.1690.
Implementation period: 3-5 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: general review

Current trend

Today, the pair is trading near the midline of Bollinger Bands (D1) at 110.50.
Today, at the meeting of the heads of the Bank of Japan regional branches, Haruhiko Kuroda spoke. In general, the head of the Japanese regulator confirmed his opinion that a soft monetary policy should be continued until inflation stabilizes at 2.0%.
This week, investors will focus on the development of the US-China trade conflict and the publication of June inflation data in the US. The trade war leads to instability in the world economy and can force the Fed to lower the hike of interest rate increase. The index of inflation promises to remain above the target level of 2.0% for the fourth consecutive month, which indicates the restoration of the American economy and the need to normalize monetary policy.

Support and resistance

Now the price is at the middle line of the Bollinger bands at 110.50. The key for the "bears" is 110.15 (Murrey [5/8]). If it is broken down, a further decrease to 109.37 (Murrey [4/8]) and 108.59 (Murrey [3/8]) is likely. Long positions will become relevant if the price consolidates above the level of 110.93 (Murrey [6/8]), which was tested unsuccessfully this year. In this case, the target of the "bulls" will be 111.72 (Murrey [7/8]) and 112.50 (Murrey [8/8]).
Technical indicators don't provide a clear signal. MACD histogram is stable in the positive zone. Stochastic is directed downwards.
Support levels: 110.15, 109.37, 108.59.
Resistance levels: 110.93, 111.72, 112.50.

Trading tips

Buy positions can be opened above 110.93 with target at 111.72, 112.50 and stop-loss at 110.50.
Sell positions may be opened from 110.15 with targets at 109.37, 108.59 and stop-loss at 110.60.
Implementation period: 3-5 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday the pair moved in different directions: poor June US employment market data affected it negatively, but as the tough rhetoric did not develop after the US-China trade taxes implementation, USD did not fall further.
On Monday, ECB officials commented on the current economic situation. The head of the regulator, Mario Draghi in the European Parliament noted the growing role of protectionism in the world trade and expressed hope for EU consumer prices growth. In Zurich, ECB board member Ewald Nowotny expressed his fear that the US-China trade war could turn into a currency one. Earlier, the head of the People's Bank of China Yi Gang claimed the intention not to use the Yuan as a weapon in trade disputes, but the market was not satisfied.
Today, the traders focus on EU and German ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment release, which is expected to decline: from –16.1 to –18.0 points in Germany and from 12.6 to –13.2 points in EU. The growth of pessimism is due to EU, China and the USA trade conflict.

Support and resistance

The price grew above 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8]) and can move to 1.1840 (Murrey [1/8]), tested in May. A breakdown of the middle line of Bollinger bands around 1.1650 will let the price return to 1.1540. Indicators’ readings are ambiguous. Stochastic reverses in the overbought zone. MACD histogram is ready to enter the positive zone and form a buy signal.
Resistance levels: 1.1840, 1.1962.
Support levels: 1.1718, 1.1650, 1.1540.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from 1.1780 with the target at 1.1840 and stop loss at the level of 1.1740.
Short positions can be opened below 1.1650 with the target at 1.1540 and the stop loss around 1.1690.
Implementation period: 3–5 days.