LiteForex Analytics

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general review


Current trend

At the beginning of the week, the pair sharply corrected to the area of 1.3183 (Murrey [4/8]), as a result of permutations in the British government.
Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson left office. They protested against the new plan by Theresa May, according to which a free trade area with uniform rules for industrial and agricultural goods, subject to European trade rules, should be established between the EU and Great Britain.
Currently, the pair has ambiguous dynamics. GBP is under pressure by weak statistics on the volume of industrial production. The value of the indicator YoY grew by 0.8% with the forecast of 1.9%, and MoM it dropped by 0.4%.
USD is under pressure after the US administration announced plans to introduce a new 10% duty on Chinese goods totaling USD 200B, which may enter into force on August 30. The Chinese authorities called this step of the US totally unacceptable and threatened with retaliatory measures and proceedings within the WTO.

Support and resistance

The price is testing the level of 1.3244 (Murrey [5/8]), the breakdown of which will give the prospect of price growth to 1.3183 (Murrey [4/8]), 1.3122 (Murrey [3/8]). The key for the "bulls" is the level of 1.3305 (Murrey [6/8]). If it is broken out, the growth to 1.3366 (Murrey [7/8]) and 1.3427 (Murrey [8/8]) is possible.
Technical indicators show the decline development. Stochastic has reversed downwards, and MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone.
Support levels: 1.3244, 1.3183, 1.3122.
Resistance levels: 1.3305, 1.3366.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened below 1.3244 with targets at 1.3183, 1.3122 and stop-loss at 1.3280.
Buy positions can be opened above the level of 1.3305 with target at 1.3366, 1.3427 and stop-loss at 1.3260.
Implementation period: 3-5 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: general analysis


Current trend

This week the pair was growing, and by now it has reached the level of 112.40. The investors are focused on the US-China trade war. The government of Japan, represented by Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, has already expressed concern about its escalation. China and the United States are the largest trading partners of the country, and last year the export of Japanese goods in these directions amounted to $300 billion. The decline in the economic growth of the US and China could affect Japanese exporters negatively. According to experts, the consequences of the trade war are likely to come in the next year, and the country's economy may lose 0.6%.
On Thursday, investors are waiting for the publication of June inflation data in the US. It is expected that the Consumer Price Index (YoY) may reach 2.9%, and Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) will reach 2.3%. Thus, the basic indicator of inflation may remain above the target level (2.0%) for the fourth consecutive month. However, despite good economic results, FOMC members can reduce the number of rate increases this year, primarily due to the deepening trade US-China crisis.

Support and resistance

The price is now reaching the level of 112.50 (the upper border of the Murrey range [8/8]), where a reversal and correction to the levels 111.72 (Murrey [7/8]) and 110.93 (Murrey [6/8]) are possible. The price breaking the upper line of Bollinger bands and Stochastic entering the overbought zone confirm the forecast. The further growth is possible only if the price consolidates above the level of 112.50, in this case, the “bullish” targets will be 114.06 (Murrey [+2/8]).
Resistance levels: 112.50, 114.06.
Support levels: 111.72, 110.93, 110.15.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the level of 112.50 with the targets at 111.72, 110.93 and stop loss at the level of 112.80.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 113.00 with the target at 114.06 and stop loss around 112.70.
Implementation period: 3–5 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

Last week, the pair was trading near the level of 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8]), but could not get away from it significantly.
This week, investors are waiting for a number of key events, mainly, for the Fed's head Jerome Powell Congress speeches, which will be held on Tuesday and Wednesday. Probably, they will be about monetary policy in the face of the complications of trade relations between China, the EU, and the USA. On the one hand, the inflation reaching the target level and a stable labor market push the regulator to raise rates. On the other hand, trade wars make the future of the American economy vague. Recently, representatives of the FRB of St. Louis noted that the reciprocal trade duties could lead to job losses and the shutdown of production in several US states. In these circumstances, the Fed may well begin to be cautious in monetary policy.

Support and resistance

Now, the instrument is testing the level of 1.1718 and, after consolidating above it, can continue rising to 1.1840 (Murrey [1/8]). This is confirmed by Stochastic, which is reversing upwards, as well as negative forecasts of the retail sales indicator, which will be published today (it is expected to decrease from 0.8% to 0.5%). The level of 1.1650 (the center line of Bollinger Bands) is seen as key for the "bears". Its breakdown will give a prospect of a return to 1.1530 (the bottom line of Bollinger Bands).
Support levels: 1.1650, 1.1530.
Resistance levels: 1.1718, 1.1840, 1.1962.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened from the level of 1.1718 with the target at 1.1840 and stop loss at 1.1680.
Sell positions may be opened below 1.1650 with the target at 1.1530 and stop loss at 1.1690.
Implementation time: 3-5 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

After Monday’s drop, oil prices stabilized. Brent is trading around 72.00–71.50. The decline can resume soon, as the external background remains negative. Investors are concerned about the US-China trade conflict escalation, which can lead to a decrease in the growth of the two leading world economies and undermine the demand for energy. At the same time, the supply deficit due to US anti-Iran sanctions, which could support prices, is balanced by increased production in a number of OPEC countries and their allies. In the first half of July, Russia increased it to 11.22 million barrels per day. By the end of this month, Iraq volumes can grow to 4.7 million barrels per day against the current 4.5 million barrels per day.
Tuesday’s API Weekly Crude Oil Stock release increased unexpectedly: oil by 0.629 million barrels, and gasoline by 0.425 million barrels. In the evening, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stock will be published, which is expected to reach 3.495 million barrels, but it is unlikely to support the prices significantly.

Support and resistance

The price fell below the level of 71.87 (Murrey [2/8]) and will continue to decline to the levels of 70.31 (Murrey [1/8]) and 68.75 (Murrey [0/8]), which is confirmed by the indicators. Bollinger bands diverge, MACD entered the negative zone. Stochastic entered the oversold zone: correction to 73.43 (Murrey [3/8]) is possible only after the price is set above 71.87.
Resistance levels: 71.87, 73.43, 75.00.
Support levels: 70.31, 68.75.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the current level with the targets at 70.31, 68.75 and stop loss 71.90.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 72.30 with the target at 73.43 and stop loss around 71.90.
Implementation period: 3–5 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. FTSE: Fibonacci analysis

On the H4 chart, the price is testing the level of 7695.0 (50.0%), which could not be overcome within a month. If the price is able to consolidate above it, the growth to the level of 7742.5 (61.8%) is possible. Indicators confirm the strength of buyers, indicating the possibility of further growth. Stochastic and Bollinger Bands are reversing upwards. MACD histogram is in the positive zone.
On the D1 chart, the price reversed in the area of 7477.0 (38.2%), broke out the level of 7625.0 (23.6%) and now is directed to the May highs to the level of 7860.0 (0.0%). The price is moving along the line of the ascending correctional Fibo fan (38.2%). The continuation of the growth of quotations is confirmed by Stochastic, which reversed upwards. The key level for the "bears" seems to be 7625.0 (23.6%, center line of Bollinger Bands). Its breakdown could lead the price to the level of 7550.0 (probable intersection with the line of the ascending correctional Fibo fan 50.0%) and 7477.0 (38.2%). However, the decline scenario is still less likely.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened if the price consolidates above 7695.0 with targets at 7742.5, 7800.0. Stop loss should be placed at 7670.0.
Sell positions may be opened below 7625.0 with targets at 7550.0, 7477.0 and stop loss at 7660.00.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: silver prices are growing

Current trend

Prices for silver increased significantly on Wednesday, noting a new local high since July 17. USD fell against a background of falling yields on Treasury bonds and weak macroeconomic statistics on the new home sales dynamics in the US.

Yesterday's preliminary meeting between US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker did not bring anything new to the market. Following the meeting, Trump said that he hoped for a positive outcome of the negotiations on the trade deal, and praised Juncker for a rather tough position.

It should be noted that the consequences of trade wars begin to affect their participants. On Tuesday, the PRC government announced a program to stimulate domestic demand and its own economy to prevent its recession due to new US import duties. At the same time, it became known that Washington would allocate USD 12B to help farmers affected by Chinese retaliatory duties.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a stable decrease. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the "bullish" nature of trading in recent days. MACD indicator is growing keeping a buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic keeps on growing, but is rapidly approaching its highs, which indicates the risks associated with the overbought instrument.

Current indicators do not contradict the further development of the "bullish" trend in the short term.

Resistance levels: 15.60, 15.83, 16.00, 16.12.
Support levels: 15.46, 15.30, 15.09.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 15.60. Take profit — 15.83, 15.90 or 16.00. Stop loss — 15.46.

A rebound from 15.60 as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 15.46 may become a signal for new sales with the target at 15.09. Stop loss — 15.60 or 15.65.

Implementation period: 2-3 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: general analysis


Current trend

On Friday, USD moved in different directions against CAD due to Q2 US GDP preliminary data release, which grew from 2.2% to 4.1%. Gross Domestic Product Price Index also exceeded forecasts, increasing from 2.0% to 3.2%. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures were worse than expected, rising by 2.0%.

Today, traders should pay attention to US June Pending Home Sales release at 16.00 (GMT+2), the market expects moderate volatility.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument was corrected to the midline of Bollinger bands, the price range narrowed. MACD histogram is in the negative area, keeping the signal to the opening of short positions.

Resistance levels: 1.3080, 1.3100, 1.3130, 1.3160, 1.3200.
Support levels: 1.3050, 1.3025, 1.3000.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3025 with the target at 1.2970. Stop loss is 1.3060.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.3100 with the target at 1.3160 and stop loss 1.3060.

Implementation period: 1–3 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: technical analysis


XAU/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is testing from below its longer MA, having formed a Bullish divergence with the price. The Composite is about to test from above its longer MA.

XAU/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is falling, having bounced off its longer MA. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.

Key levels

Support levels: 1215.0 (local lows), 1205.0 (July 2017 lows), 1185.0 (December 2013 lows).
Resistance levels: 1237.0 (local highs), 1256.0 (local highs), 1260.0 (October 2017 lows).

Trading tips

The chances of an upward correction are increasing.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1237.0 with targets at 1256.0, 1260.0 and stop-loss at 1228.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1205.0 with the target at 1185.0 and stop-loss at 1215.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: to new local lows

Current trend

GBP against USD is moving within a broad downwards channel, despite the July decline in volatility. The downward momentum significantly decreased due to a drop in investment interest in the overbought dollar. An additional catalyst for the pair's growth was weak data on key sectors of the US economy in the middle of last month. At the end of last trading week, the pair reached the upper border of the current downward trend at 1.3210 due to the British positive fundamental background, and dollar is now strengthening due to favorable data and the growth of demand before US key releases publications.

At the end of this week US data on the labor market will be published, as well as Fed’s and BoE interest rates decisions, so high volatility of the instrument is expected.

Support and resistance

The pair remains in a downward trend. Technical indicators confirm the fall forecast. On the daily chart and higher, MACD keeps high volumes of short positions, and Bollinger bands are directed downward.

Resistance levels: 1.3150, 1.3180, 1.3210, 1.3230, 1.3270, 1.3295.
Support levels: 1.3110, 1.3000, 1.2970, 1.2955, 1.2930, 1.2850, 1.2800.

Trading tips

It is relevant to increase the volumes of short positions from the current level with the targets at 1.2975, 1.2800 and stop loss 1.3250.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: general review

Current trend

This week, CAD strengthened against USD due to the publication of strong data on GDP.

In May, Canada's GDP grew by 0.5%, which was the most significant figure for the last year. GDP growth is explained by good weather, which led to an increase in retail sales (by 2.0% in May) and an increase in oil prices in the first half of 2018.

At present, the Canadian economy is seriously dependent on the oil market, since the share of oil and gas production in the national GDP is more than 7% (the most significant figure since 1998). On Wednesday, after the publication of the EIA report, which recorded the growth of oil reserves in the US by 3.803M barrels to 408.74M barrels, CAD was under pressure, the pair began to grow and is currently trading at around 1.3025.

Support and resistance

Currently, the price is corrected upwards within the downtrend, and the possibility of further growth is confirmed by Stochastic, which is located at the oversold zone. However, one may speak about a serious increase in the price when it is fixed above 1.3061 (Murrey [3/8]). In this case, the next target of "bulls" will be 1.3183 (Murrey [4/8]). If the downtrend continues, the targets of the "bears" will be 1.2939 (Murrey [2/8]), 1.2817 (Murrey [1/8]) and 1.2695 (Murrey [0/8]).

Resistance levels: 1.3061, 1.3183.
Support levels: 1.2939, 1.2817, 1.2695.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 1.2939, 1.2817, 1.2695 and stop loss at 1.1360.
Buy positions can be opened above 1.3061 with target at 1.3183 and stop loss at 1.3020.
Implementation period: 3-5 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. NZD/USD: growth of investment interest in USD

Current trend

NZD against USD cannot come out of the wide side channel. For more than a month the pair has been moving within the range of 0.6850-0.6715 due to a decrease in trading activity and an ambiguous fundamental background.

Last week, strong US GDP data was published, but the labor market subsided, and the Fed did not go on to tighten monetary policy and raise rates. Despite this, USD gained additional demand, and the pair fell to a local minimum of 0.6725, having passed more than 100 points in a few days. At the end of the week, some of the losses were played out but the downward momentum persisted.

At the moment, there are no important releases. At the end of the week RBNZ will publish a decision on the rates, and in the US there will be data on the labor market and major indices, special attention should be paid to inflation.

Support and resistance

The pair has slowed but remains in the long-term downward trend. It is possible that the approach to the lower border will be decisive: either the pair will break it down and go to new local lows, or continue to trade in narrowing consolidation. The consensus forecast indicates an increase in inflation in the US: this may give USD support in view of the increased likelihood of an increase in rates. However, the downward movement is more likely, which means that an increase in the volume of short positions at the current level or at the upper border of the side channel is expected.

Technical indicators confirm the fall outlook: on D1 chart and above, MACD is already indicating the growth of volume of short positions, and Bollinger Bands are still pointing down.

Support levels: 0.6725, 0.6710, 0.6690, 0.6650, 0.6610, 0.6575, 0.6500.
Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6790, 0.6830, 0.6850, 0.6880, 0.6895.


Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the current level; pending orders can be opened from the nearest resistance levels of 0.6770, 0.6790 with targets at 0.6650, 0.6575 and the stop loss at 0.6920.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Ethereum: general review

Current trend

After a serious fall last week, the cryptocurrency market stabilized. For a few days, the price of Ether is near 406.25. Investors are waiting for new drivers.

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which owns the NYSE, announced work on the creation of a global platform called Bakkt. Through it, ICE plans to deposit the digital assets, and companies using Bakkt will be able to accept payments in cryptocurrencies.

Meanwhile, the reliability of digital assets continues to cause doubts. Last week, the SEC denied Winklevoss twins to create an ETF based on Bitcoin under the pretext that the currency is not sufficiently protected from manipulations. Studies of the The Wall Street Journal confirmed the regulator's concerns: there are organized groups of traders on the market that can significantly influence the prices of digital assets through coordinated purchases or sales. Such methods have long been banned in the traditional market, but continue to be operated on the cryptocurrency one.

Support and resistance

Technically, Ether continues to trade in the downward channel and in case of breakdown of the level of 406.25 (Murrey [1/8]) it can decrease to 375.00 (Murrey [0/8]) and 312.50 (Murrey [-2/8]). However, Stochastics leaving the oversold zone suggests the possibility of an upward correction. The key for "bulls" is the level of 437.50 (Murrey [1/8], the midline of Bollinger Bands) above the upper border of the descending channel. If it's broken out, targets for growth will be 500.00 (Murrey [4/8]) and 531.25 (Murrey [5/8]).

Support levels: 406.25, 375.00, 312.50.
Resistance levels: 437.50, 500.00, 531.25.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened above 437.50 with the target at 500.00 and stop loss at 410.00.

Short positions may be opened from 395.00 with targets at 375.00, 312.50 and stop loss at 410.00.

Implementation time: 3-5 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. FTSE: technical analysis

FTSE, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is trying to turn down slightly below the border of the overbought zone. The Composite is growing, having broken out its longer MA.

FTSE, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is about to test from above its longer MA, having failed the border of the overbought zone. The Composite is falling, having broken down its longer MA.

Key levels

Support levels: 7710.0 (local lows), 7676.0 (local lows), 7650.0 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 7738.0 (local highs), 7790.0 (June highs), 7870.0 (local highs).

Trading tips

The price has retested its strong resistance near 7790.0. There is a chance of a downward correction.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 7710.0 with targets at 7676.0, 7650.0 and stop-loss at 7738.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

Long positions can be opened from the level of 7790.0 with the target at 7870.0 and stop-loss at 7745.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Cryptocurrency Market Review

This week, the cryptocurrency market continued to correct downwards amid the new decisions of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). On Thursday, there was an attempt to growth, but in general the trend remains descending. At present, Bitcoin is traded around 6450.00 (–8.3%), Ethereum has fallen to 360.00 (–12.2%), Ripple declined to 0.3200 (–24.1%), Bitcoin Cash fell to the level of 590.00 (–20.1%), and Litecoin decreased to 61.26 (–21.0%).

The SEC and the uncertainty surrounding the ETF solution continue to weigh on the cryptocurrency market. This week, the regulator postponed to the end of September consideration of the issue of allowing the VanEck and SolidX companies to create a Bitcoin ETF, citing the need for a more thorough analysis of the applications submitted. According to experts, out of 10 companies that applied to the SEC for the creation of ETF, VanEck and SolidX had the greatest chance of obtaining a permit, since they closely cooperate with the Cboe exchange, where they planned to place shares. Therefore, investors were disappointed by the decision of the regulator, hoping for an early solution of the issue. On the other hand, the VanEck and SolidX trust application was not declined immediately, as was the case with the Winklevoss brothers' request a week earlier. Probably, there is a fight of opinions in the SEC, and there is still a chance to receive approval of the application for the trust. Two approvals are needed to introduce a new investment product to the market from the SEC: one is needed for the ETF creation and another one is needed for the right to trade its shares. The second permit should be obtained by Cboe, but consideration of its application was postponed by the SEC to the end of September.

Among other news of the market there is the intention of the company Opera Ltd. to launch a cryptocurrency wallet in the new version of the browser for the PC, because a similar product in Opera for Android was positively received by the cryptocurrency community. The research of the Wall Street Journal which confirmed the vulnerability of the digital assets market for fraud is also worth attention. The magazine found that there are organized groups of traders at the market that can significantly influence the prices of digital assets through simultaneous coordinated purchases or sales of currencies.

In general, the trend towards a decrease remains in the cryptocurrency market. Next week, prices may continue the downward movement.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. WTI Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

Today, oil is trading around 67.00, Friday's growth has stopped.

The traders are focused on the US anti-Iran sanctions. At the end of last week, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said that there is no meeting with US officials planned in the near future, including the UN General Assembly to be held next month. The entry into force of US sanctions against the Iranian oil sector is scheduled for November 5. Refusal of dialogue means a continuation of the pressure of the USA on the importer countries to make them refuse of the Iranian oil? Which failed with China and Russia, but France and South Korea stopped cooperating with the Islamic Republic.

Last year, Iran exported about 2.1 million barrels of oil per day. Probably, the flow will not be completely blocked, however, the US administration expects to reduce supplies by 0.7–1.0 million barrels per day.

Support and resistance

At present, the key "bullish" level is 67.18 (Murrey [6/8]). In case of breakout, the price may rise to the levels of 67.96 (Murrey [7/8]) and 68.75 (Murrey [8/8]). However, according to the reversal of the Bollinger Bands and Stochastic downwards, the price is more likely to fall to 65.62 (Murrey [4/8]) and 64.84 (Murrey [3/8]) after the breakdown of the level of 66.40 in the mid-range of Bollinger bands.

Resistance levels: 67.18, 67.96, 68.75.
Support levels: 66.40, 65.62, 64.84.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 66.40 with the targets at 65.62, 64.84 and stop loss 66.80.

Long positions can be opened above the level of 67.18 with the targets at 67.96, 68.75 and stop loss around 66.90.

Implementation period: 3–5 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: instrument consolidates

Current trend

The US Dollar fell against the Canadian currency on Monday, 13 August, after renewing local highs since 24 July.

As there is a lack of significant economic releases, USD moves due to technical factors. It is supported by strong July US inflation data. Instead of the expected growth, the consumer price index remained at the same level of 2.9%, but the base consumer price index rose from 2.3% to 2.4%. Investors are confident that the regulator will raise the interest rate twice more. Most likely, this will happen at the September and December Fed’s meetings.

The key US data will be released on Wednesday, when the July data on retail sales and industrial production will be published. It is forecasted that the volume of retail sales may fall from 0.5% to 0.3%, and the index of industrial production can decrease from 0.6% to 0.3%. The implementation of forecasts can affect the USD negatively.

Support and resistance

The Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is showing a gradual reverse upwards. The price range is widening but cannot cope with high volatility on the market yet. The MACD is growing and keeping a quite strong buy signal (the histogram remains above the signal line). The Stochastic is growing but is approaching its maximum levels, suggesting the USD is overbought.

Current indicators’ readings do not contradict further Bullish trend development.

Support levels: 1.3100, 1.3061, 1.3000, 1.2961, 1.2900.
Resistance levels: 1.3156, 1.3200, 1.3258, 1.3300.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.3156 with targets at 1.3230, 1.3258 and stop-loss at 1.3100. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.3100 with the target at 1.3000 and stop-loss at 1.3150. Validity – 2-3 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: technical analysis

XAG/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading below the lower line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is testing the border of the oversold zone, beginning to form a Bullish divergence with the price. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.

XAG/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is about to test its most recent support. The Composite has turned down as well, having retested its longer MA.

Key levels

Support levels: 14.60 (December 2015 highs), 14.30 (July 2017 lows), 13.95 (August 2015 lows).
Resistance levels: 15.05 (local highs), 15.25 (local highs), 15.60 (December 2017 lows).

Trading tips

The price is approaching the lower border of its long-term descending channel. The is a chance of an upward reverse.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 15.05 with targets at 15.25, 15.60 and stop-loss at 14.90. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 14.60 with targets at 14.30, 13.95 and stop-loss at 14.80. Validity – 3-5 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Ethereum: general review

Current trend

After the decline of the beginning of the week, quotations of Ether have attempted to grow. On Wednesday, the instrument exceeded the 300.00 level, but is now trading around 281.25 (Murray [1/8]). It is difficult to say how strong the upward momentum will be, as the situation on the market remains unstable. Its total capitalization continues to fall – from early August it fell from 278 to 203 billion dollars, which indicates a serious outflow of investors after the refusal or transfer by SEC of a number of applications for the creation of ETFs based on Bitcoin. The share of ETH in the total market capitalization is also decreasing, from 15.7% in early August to 14.1% at present.

As for the news of the crypto-currency market it is worth noting the continuation of the "migration" of digital companies to Malta, since this country now has the friendliest legislation in relation to digital assets. Following the major exchanges Binance and OKEx, ZB.com, the fifth largest digital exchange in the world, opened its office on the island. The company expects to launch a new platform and exchange crypto currency for fiat money.

Support and resistance

At present, the price has risen above the level of 281.25 (Murray [1/8]) and can continue corrective growth to 343.75 (Murray [3/8]) and 375.00 (Murray [4/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands, the upper border of the channel). The Stochastic exits the oversold zone. However, the potential of the downtrend is not yet exhausted, which is confirmed by the reversal of the Bollinger Bands down and the MACD histogram in the negative zone. The key for the "bears" is the 250.00, its breakdown will insure a decrease to 218.75 (Murray [-1/8]) and 187.50 (Murray [-2/8]).

Support levels: 250.00, 218.75, 187.50.
Resistance levels: 312.50, 343.75, 375.00.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at 313.00 with targets at 343.75, 375.00 and stop loss in the area of 290.00.

Short positions should be opened below the level of 250.00 with targets of 218.75, 187.50 and a stop loss at 280.00.

Term of realization: 3-5 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Cryptocurrency Market Review

This week, the cryptocurrency market had mixed dynamics. The decline in the beginning of the week was replaced by a corrective growth, as a result of which a significant part of losses was won back. Bitcoin is currently trading around 6500.00, Ethereum – at 300.00, Ripple – at 0.2930, Bitcoin Cash – at 535.00, and Litecoin – at 56.50.

The total capitalization of the market this week continued to decline and decreased from 214 to 203 billion dollars. At the same time, the share of altcoins volume in the market is decreasing, and the share of bitcoin has increased from 51% to 53%. It becomes clear that some investors are leaving the market, and some are switching to Bitcoin, hoping for a positive decision by the SEC to register ETF funds in September.

As for the news of the market, the European Union intends to introduce new ICO rules, which will be implemented through crowd-funding platforms. This is stated in the documents published by the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. It is planned that the organizers of the new ICO, if they expect to collect more than 8 million euros, should work within the framework of European securities legislation. Thus, new ICO products can be equated with the EU in securities. This position is close to the position of the US SEC, whose members also tend to believe that most of the cryptocurrencies are qualitatively securities.

This week it became known that the Jamaican stock exchange intends to offer its clients cryptocurrencies as trading assets by the end of this year, for which the appropriate platform is being developed. And the Securities and Exchange Commission of Thailand officially authorized the work of five crypto-exchanges and two dealers in the country. In addition, the transfer of large digital companies to Malta continues, the legislation of which is currently the friendliest with respect to cryptocurrencies. Following the major exchanges Binance and OKEx, ZB.com, the fifth largest digital exchange in the world, opened its office on the island. The company expects to launch a new platform and exchange cryptocurrency for fiat money.

In general, the continuation of the upward correction may continue next week, but the medium-term downtrend is likely to continue.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Oil quotes have been growing since the middle of last week on reports of upcoming US-China trade talks on August 21-22.

Negotiations can resolve at least some of the contentious issues, although experts warn that there would be no quick results. Quotes are also supported by the probplem of oil transportation from the Perm oil basin. In this regard, the number of active oil rigs in the US for more than two months is within the range of 858-869 units, which is much lower than the peak values of 2014, when it exceeded 1600 units.

The current growth is likely to be limited, as long-term pressures on the market remain. Investors are still concerned about the trade war, which could cause a decrease in oil consumption in the two leading world economies. But the possible shortage after anti-Iran sanctions will be covered by Saudi Arabia, which was confirmed by the country's energy minister Khalid Al-Falih.

Support and resistance

Technically, the price tends to the upper border of the downward channel near the level of 73.43 (Murrey [3/8], the midline of Bollinger Bands). After its breakdown, growth can be continued to 75.00 (Murrey [4/8]) and 76.56 (Murrey [5/8]). The consolidation of the price below 71.87 will lead to the decline to the levels of 70.31 (Murrey [1/8]) and 68.75 (Murrey [0/8]).

Technical indicators show growth: Stochastic reversed up, MACD histogram is reducing in the negative zone. However, the growth potential is seen as limited.

Support levels: 71.87, 70.31, 68.75.
Resistance levels: 73.43, 75.00, 76.56.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened below 71.87 with targets at 70.31, 68.75 and stop loss at 72.20.
Buy positions may be opened above 73.43 with targets at 75.00, 76.56 and stop loss at 72.10.

Implementation time: 3-5 days.