Market Analysis by Vistabrokers

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Vista Brokers: Greek Saga Continues

The situation in Greece continues to have a significant impact on all financial markets. Vista Brokers analysts say that on Wednesday it became known that Athens had agreed on almost all the conditions of international creditors. The Financial Times has published information according to which the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras was ready to accept a reform plan with only minor changes. This gives hope that the "troika" will approve a new program of financial aid, which Greece had requested on Tuesday, a few hours before a technical default (non-payment of 1.6 billion euros to IMF).

European stock market and bonds of peripheral euro zone countries reacted to the news with the growth. Thus, FTSEurofirst 300 index has increased by 1.5%, while the Euro STOXX - by 2.1%. The yield on German 10-year bonds has risen by 4.3 basis points to a day high of 0.82%. The yield on similar bonds of Spain, Italy and Portugal have declined by an average of 7 basis points to 2.22%, 2.25% and 2.90% respectively.

Meanwhile, the euro continues to fall against the dollar and other competitors. At the time of writing it is at $ 1.1105. The decline was aggravated after the International Monetary Fund officially declared that Greece had failed to make payment, so now it is included in the list of debtors and will not receive funding until paying off the debt. Thus, Greece became the first developed country in the list of debtors IMF, where previously were only non-developed countries, such as Zimbabwe.

Hope for a new loan for Athens still exists - as mentioned above, the country has requested a new bailout program and debt restructuring, but did it too late, so that the payment of the IMF has turned out to be expired. On Sunday the country will hold a referendum, after which, perhaps, the negotiations will continue. In any case, Greece - is a constant source of inconvenience in financial markets since the crisis situation casts doubt on the stability of the euro zone and its currency.

 

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Market Pulse 02.07

On Thursday, a lot of important statistics will be published during the US trading session. Data will attract investors' attention - all statistics published in the United States has an impact on terms in which the market expects the Fed's interest rate hike.

1:30 *** Trade Balance - May (Australia)

Strong impact on the market (AUD). The trade balance is the difference between exports and imports for the period. Positive values ​​are favorable for the currency.

8:30 *** Construction PMI - June (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). The index of purchasing managers in the construction. It shows an improvement or deterioration in the previous month. The situation in the construction sector in Britain is closely monitored, so the publication affect markets.

11:30 ** ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts - June (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The report is published in 4 weeks after the meeting of the ECB monetary policy. It contains speeches of the Governing Council members.

12:30 *** Unemployment Rate - June (USA)
12:30 *** Non-Farm Employment Change - June (USA)
12:30 *** Unemployment Claims - June (USA)
12:30 ** Counting Claims - June (USA)
12:30 ** Change in Private Payrolls - June (USA)
12:30 ** Change in Manufacturing Payrolls - June (USA)
12:30 ** Average Hourly Earnings - June (USA)
12:30 ** Participation Rate - June (USA)
12:30 ** Two-Month Payroll Net Revision - June (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). The US trading session will be very volatile, as the data on the labor market are one of the main targets for the Fed. Note that experts expect a decline in the unemployment rate and the unemployment claims number. Forecasts for not all indicators are optimistic, but if most of data are positive, it could support the dollar.

13:30 ** RBC Manufacturing PMI - June (Canada)

Moderate impact on the market (CAD). The index of purchasing managers in manufacturing. Shows improvement (> 50) or degradation (<50) of the situation in comparison with the previous month. The rate growth or the forecast exceeding are favorable for the currency.

15:10 ** ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks - July (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Draghi comments can give hints of further actions of the ECB and the sentiment in the central bank's management, so they are important for the market.

 

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Vista Brokers: Dollar Rose after Strong Statistics

On Wednesday, the dollar has strengthened after during the American trading session in the USA was published a portion of strong statistics. Vista Brokers analysts say that the tension over Greece in markets remains, but positive data from the United States set up investors that the Federal Reserve will soon raise interest rates.

So, an independent organization ADP has reported yesterday that the US non-farm private employment rose by 237,000 in June instead of the expected 219,000, and more modest 203,000 in the previous month. The May figure was revised with increase - earlier ADP had reported about 201,000. Also better than expected was ISM manufacturing index, showing activity in the US manufacturing sector. In June, the index has risen from 52.8 to 53.5 vs. 53.2.

Euro was mainly declining during the day, despite the fact that European stocks and bonds were rising after it became known that the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras had agreed with almost all the lenders' conditions. Yesterday, Tsipras sent new proposals for reforms as part of a request for a new program of financial bailout. However, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that negotiations will not continue until the results of the referendum are known. The referendum will take place in Greece on Sunday.

 

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Vista Brokers: Return of Iran Will not Have Material Impact on Oil Market

Talks on Iran's nuclear program, which should have been completed on Tuesday, were extended until July 7. Probably, the next round of negotiations will be the last, and international sanctions for Tehran will be lifted. These sanctions did not give the country an opportunity to participate the global oil market in full force. Vista Brokers analysts note that oil market participants were long speculating on the theme of sanctions lifting, but in fact, the country will need a long time to regain lost ground.

Recall that sanctions prohibited the export of crude oil from Iran in most developed countries, as well as foreign investment in local gas, oil and petrochemical industries. A preliminary agreement on the lifting of the ban was signed in April 2015, and since then the "Six" (USA, Russia, China, France, United Kingdom, Germany) and Tehran discuss the details. It is likely that Iran will reduce the number of centrifuges at two-thirds, but the country still wants to engage in research on the study of uranium and insists on it. The other side insists that this area of ​​research should be under the full external control as well as military targets in Iran.
Despite the tough stance of "six", Tehran slowly but surely inferiors, so it is likely that a long-term conflict will be really resolved soon. In this case, Iran will return to the list of full members of the oil market and everything will depend on how quickly the country will use the additional capacity to return to the onetime volumes. The Iran's Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh has pointed that the country will immediately increase oil production to the past level after the lifting of sanctions.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Iran in May was producing 2.85 million barrels per day, 1.4 million of which was exported. In early 2012, before stringent financial sanctions against Iran were imposed at the global level, the export volume was 2.2 million barrels per day.

Analysts insist that Iran will not be able to quickly rehabilitate the oil industry, which is under sanctions for more than 10 years. Probably, it will take about 1.5-2 years with a steady stream of foreign investmen to the oil industry. That is why deliveries from Iran will not immediately affect the oil market, in contrast to the speculation on this subject.

 

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Market Pulse 07/03

On Friday, in many countries will be published index of business activity in the service sector and the PMI composite index, which usually have an average impact on the market. In the US today markets do not work because of Independence Day, so liquidity during the US trading session will be low.

1:30 *** Retail Sales - May (Australia)

Strong impact on the market (AUD). The rate growth (forecast exceeding) reflects higher consumer activity that supports the currency, suggesting a tight monetary policy in the future.

1:35 ** Services PMI - June (Japan)
1:35 ** PMI Composite - June (Japan)

Moderate impact on the market (JPY). The index of purchasing managers in the services sector. Shows improvement (> 50) or degradation (<50) of the situation in comparison with the previous month. The rate growth or the forecast exceeding are favorable for the currency. In Japan indexes are expected to decline in June.

1:45 ** HSBC Services PMI - June (China)
1:45 ** HSBC PMI Composite - June (China)

Moderate impact on the market. The index of purchasing managers in the services sector. Shows improvement (> 50) or degradation (<50) of the situation in comparison with the previous month. The rate growth or the forecast exceeding are favorable for the currency. In China indexes are expected to increase in June.

7:15 ** Services PMI - June (Spain)
7:15 ** PMI Composite - June (Spain)
7:45 ** Services PMI - June (Italy)
7:45 ** PMI Composite - June (Italy)
7:50 ** Services PMI - June (France)
7:50 ** PMI Composite - June (France)
7:55 ** Services PMI - June (Germany)
7:55 ** PMI Composite - June (Germany)
8:00 ** Services PMI - June (euro zone)
8:00 ** PMI Composite - June (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Forecasts suggest that the average performance of the services sector in the euro zone in June, will remain at the level of May. In Spain a slight decrease is expected, and in Italy - a slight increase. In the current tense situation, the data are unlikely to have an impact on the market, except in the case of strongly diverge from forecasts.

8:30 *** Services PMI - June (UK)
8:30 ** PMI Composite - June (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). The index of purchasing managers in the services sector. Shows improvement (> 50) or degradation (<50) of the situation in comparison with the previous month. The rate growth or the forecast exceeding are favorable for the currency. In the UK indexes are expected to increase in June.

09:00 ** Retail Sales - May (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The rate growth (forecast exceeding) reflects higher consumer activity that supports the currency.

 

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Vista Brokers: US Labor Market Statistics Disappointed Traders

On Thursday, markets were looking forward to the US trading session and the US labor market release. Vista Brokers analysts note that the published statistics did not meet traders' expectations - most of indicators were below expectations.

This has given the euro the opportunity to recover against the US dollar. Recall that this Sunday Greece will hold a referendum, the results of which can significantly affect the dynamics of financial markets. Thus, EUR / USD finished the day with a small plus (+ 0.30%) at $ 1.1086. Prior to that, a couple was traded in the range of 1.1033 - 1.1121.

Thus, statistics on the US labor market did not meet expectations, except only the unemployment rate, which actually fell in June, and even as much as 0.2%, not 0.1% as expected. Non-farm payrolls rose by 223,000, rather than the 231 000. The data on changes in private and industrial sectors also were worse than expected. Disappointing was data on average hourly wage, which has started to grow only in the last few months, but in June the growth was zero. And as a control shot ... the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits rose for the reporting week by 10 000 to 281 000.

Relatively weak data on the labor market could again move the timeline of Fed rate hike, which market participants expect in September. Last month, the Fed chief Janet Yellen said that the central bank wants to see a stable growth of GDP, inflation and wages before taking measures to tighten monetary policy.

 

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Vista Brokers: Oil Falls after Yesterday's Baker Hughes Data

During the Asian session of Friday, oil was falling in price. Vista Brokers analysts note that recent data from the United States fall short of expectations about the decline of oil production in the country. In addition, investors are showing excitement prior to a referendum in Greece, the results of which are quite unpredictable and can greatly affect the dynamics of financial markets. Today, on the New York Mercantile Exchange futures for WTI crude oil for August delivery were down by 0.66% to $ 56.56 per barrel.

After the past few months, production volumes and stocks in the US have shown a steady decline, last week the number of drilling rigs according to Baker Hughes has increased as well as crude oil inventories according to EIA. As you can see, hopes that the oversupply in the oil market will decline due to the narrowing of the US market, are not met.

So, according to the Baker Hughes report, released yesterday, last week, the number of drilling rigs operating in the US has risen by 12 to 640, breaking the 29-week cycle of decline (since the beginning of December 2014). A week earlier, the number of rigs has fallen to its lowest level since August 2010 - 628.

Even more unpleasant surprise for traders was the fact that, according to EIA (Information Agency under the US Energy Department) over the past week crude oil inventories in the country have increased by 2.4 million barrels, after 8 consecutive weeks of steadily declining. After the publication of this information, WTI crude futures have lost more than 4%, dropping below $ 57 a barrel.

It should be noted that forecasts have assumed decline in stocks by 2.5 million barrels, so that the actual data differs a lot. Currently, crude oil inventories in the United States are at 465.4 million barrels - the highest level in 80 years.

 

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Vista Brokers: Dollar Weakness Gave Gold Opportunity to Rise

During the European trading session on Friday, gold was rising. Vista Brokers analysts say that yesterday's disappointing data on the US labor market have weakened the dollar and gave metals an opportunity to increase. Recall that a trading volume today is low due to Independence Day celebration in the United States.

August gold futures on Comex have risen by 0.33% to $ 1,167.30 per troy ounce, recovering after closing at $ 1,163.50 on Thursday. Silver futures for September delivery have increased by 0.39% to $ 15,622 per ounce, September copper futures - by 0.26% to $ 2.637 per pound.

Statistics on the US labor market released on Thursday has added uncertainty in the situation with the expectation of the Fed interest rate hike. Such important data as non-farm payrolls, average hourly wages and the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits were worse than expected.

 

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Market Pulse 07/06

On Monday, the most busy with statistics is the US trading session, when in the United States will be published such important data as the ISM non-manufacturing PMI index, and in Canada - Ivey PMI index.

06:00 ** Factory Orders - May (Germany)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Changes in total industrial orders received by industrial enterprises. It is often a leading indicator of the industrial production dynamics for several months. The excess of the forecast is favorable for the currency.

07:15 ** Consumer Price Index - June (Switzerland)

Moderate impact on the market (CHF). Inflation is one of the key indicators in Forex, because the monetary policy often depends on it. The growth of the rate (or the forecast exceeding) are positive for the currency.

14:00 *** ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI - June (USA)
14:00 ** ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment Index - June (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). Data above 50 shows increase in activity compared to the previous month. In June, indexes are expected to increase.

14:00 *** Ivey PMI - June (Canada)
14:30 ** Bank of Canada Senior Loan Officer - June (Canada)

Strong impact on the market (CAD). The Ivey index is based on a survey of purchasing managers. It shows improvement (> 50) or degradation (<50) of the situation in comparison with the previous month. The growth of the rate or the forecast exceeding are favorable for the currency.

 

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Vista Brokers: EUR / USD Was in Narrow Range prior to Referendum

On Friday, trading volumes in Forex were low due to the US Independence Day. Vista Brokers analysts note that EUR / USD was traded in a narrow range prior to a referendum in Greece, scheduled for Sunday. At the end of the day the pair has risen by 0.17% to 1.1102.

Friday's statistics in the euro zone was mixed. Thus, retail sales in May in the region have increased by 0.2% mom and by 2.4% yoy, exceeding forecasts of 0.1% and 2.3%, respectively. The PMI index for the services sector in Germany has fallen from 54.2 to 53.8, while zero growth was expected. A similar index for France has remained at 54.1 as expected.

Note that the results of the referendum, which was held yesterday in Greece, showed that the majority of citizens said "no" to requirements of the ECB, the EU and the IMF, and therefore it is unlikely that Athens will agree with the "troika" regards the new financial program. The consequences of this decision may be serious enough - skeptics say not only about the exit of Greece from the euro zone, but also the disintegration of the monetary union itself. Left-wing parties, such as the Greek, "Syriza" take quite a strong position in many countries of the region. If such forces come to power in Italy or Spain, it is likely that these countries will go the same way as Greece.

 

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Vista Brokers: Oil Fell to 3-Month Low

On Monday, oil drops amid results of the referendum in Greece. Vista Brokers analysts say that investors prefer safe-haven assets such as precious metals in the commodity market and the Japanese yen in the currency one. According to the results of the referendum the majority of Greeks said "no" to reforms that require the ECB, the EU and the IMF, and therefore the unstable situation in the euro zone will worsen.

Today, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, August Brent futures have reached the lowest level since April at $ 59.38. Later, the price has rebounded slightly - to $ 59.67. Thus the decline since the trading opening was 1.07%.

Meanwhile, on the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures for delivery in August, have fallen in price by 0.84% ​​to $ 55.05. Earlier today, these futures have also reached the lowest level since April - $ 54.55. The spread between Brent and WTI has increased to $ 4.62 from $ 3.39 by close of trade on Thursday .

Thus, the Greek saga continues – the Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has expressed a positive attitude towards the results of the referendum and said that negotiations with creditors will continue to resolve the situation with the banking sector. Recall that banks in Greece do not work for a week. The European Central Bank has not yet announced a decision on the supply of liquidity in the Greek financial system. If the flow of financing stops, the banking system would be destroyed within a few days.

In a surprise move, Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis resigned. He argued his departure that "some European participants " believe that the absence of Varufakis in the negotiations will help to reach an agreement. So he leaves the post to facilitate Tsipras negotiations with the "troika".

Analysts say that today the situation in all financial markets is highly volatile and it is difficult for traders to make trading decisions based on comments about Greece and interpretations which are now influencing the dynamics of many financial instruments.

 

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Market Pulse 07/07

Tuesday is rather saturated with the important statistics that will be published in different countries.

4:30 *** RBA Interest Rate Decision - July (Australia)
4:30 *** RBA Rate Statement - July (Australia)

Strong impact on the market (AUD). It is expected that the Reserve Bank of Australia keeps the interest rate unchanged. The accompanying statement may contain some interesting comments or hints on the future strategy of the RBA.

5:45 ** Unemployment Rate - June (Switzerland)
7:00 ** Foreign Currency Reserves - June (Switzerland)

Moderate impact on the market (CHF). According to the forecast the unemployment rate in June remains at the same level. Regarding the volume of foreign currency reserves, the rate has started to attract attention of market players with the beginning of SNB interventions. From the volume changes investors can judge about interventions.

08:30 *** Industrial Production - May (UK)
8:30 ** Manufacturing Production - May (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). Changes in the level of industrial production in the previous month. Often production carries a small contribution to GDP, but it allows to predict the dynamics of interest rate. Growth or the forecast exceeding are favorable for the currency.

12:30 *** Trade Balance - May (Canada)

Strong impact on the market (CAD). The trade balance is the difference between exports and imports for the period. Positive values ​​are favorable for the currency, reflecting the inflow of money into the country.

12:30 *** Trade Balance - May (Canada)

Strong impact on the market (USD). The trade balance is the difference between exports and imports for the period. Positive values ​​are favorable for the currency, reflecting the inflow of money into the country.

14:00 ** JOLTs Job Openings - May (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Job openings in the private sector at the end of the reporting month. The increase reflects an improvement in the labor market situation in the country, showing a high demand for workers.

 

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Vista Brokers: US Statistics Did not Meet Expectations

On Monday, a strong influence on financial markets had the results of Sunday's referendum in Greece, which showed a negative attitude of the majority of Greeks to a financial bailout program from the "troika" and to reforms associated with it. Vista Brokers analysts note that the dollar was shooked with the weak data from the US, although, of course, the US currency is still more stable compared to the euro.

During the US trading session the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has published the non-manufacturing PMI index. In June, the index has risen from 55.7 to 56.0, but the forecast assumed the increase to 56.5. The ISM non-manufacturing employment index has decreased during the first summer month from 55.3 to 52.7.

Analysts say that the results of the referendum in Greece intensifies fears that the country will leave the euro zone. International creditors have commented on the situation, stressing that Greece will continue to get funds only in return for long-term and large-scale reforms. Will Greek banks still receive liquidity from the ECB – it remains questionable. Euro zone leaders will gather at a conference today to discuss the situation in Greece and the future strategy. Markets continue to closely monitor the course of events.

 

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Vista Brokers: Oil Is Recovering after Falling

On Tuesday, crude oil futures are rising in price. Vista Brokers analysts note that the "black gold" restores the position after yesterday's strongest decline in the last three months. Oil was pressured with talks on Iran and Greece, as well as concerns over a slowdown in China's economy.

During the European trading session on the ICE Futures Exchange Brent futures for August have risen in price by 0.38% to $ 57.38 per barrel. A day earlier, these futures have fallen by 6.27%, to close at 3-month low of $ 56.54 per barrel.

Meanwhile, on the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures for August delivery have risen by 0.27% to $ 53.14 per barrel. On Monday, futures have lost 7.73% to close at the low of April 10, at $ 52.53 per barrel.

 

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Market Pulse 07/08

5:00 ** Eco Watchers Survey: Current - June (Japan)
5:00 ** Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook - June (Japan)

Moderate impact on the market (JPY). Workers in sectors, which dramatically affects the change in consumer spending (workers of taxis, hotels, restaurants etc.), estimate the current situation in the economy, as well as its prospects.

11:30 *** Annual Budget Release - 2014 (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). Speech of the British Chancellor of the Exchequer with the budget plan for the coming fiscal year, which begins in April. Traders and investors closely monitor, how balanced the budget is and what does the Treasury plans the next year.

12:30 *** Building Permits - May (Canada)

Strong impact on the market (CAD). Changing in the volume of permits issued for housing construction in Canada, seasonally adjusted. It is the important leading health indicator for the real estate market and the economy as a whole. Strong data can support the currency.

18:00 *** FOMC Meeting Minutes - June (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). Minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting help to more fully understand the reasoning of the Committee during the meeting and help market players to understand the Fed's next steps.

18:00 ** FOMC Member John C. Williams Speaks - July (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). John Williams is a voting member of the FOMC, that is, his opinion affects the monetary policy.

 

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Vista Brokers: Euro Is Grasping at Straws

On Tuesday morning the single currency fell against the dollar to 1-month low, but later regained position. Vista Brokers analysts note that the growth driver during the American session for the euro was the fact that Greece has submitted a new request to creditors to continue the program of financial assistance, despite the fact that the Sunday's referendum had showed the negative attitude of the Greeks to conditions of lending program from the ECB, the EU and the IMF. This is probably the last hope of Greece to remain in the euro zone.

At the emergency meeting in Brussels, the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has suggested European leaders a new plan to help the country to avoid bankruptcy. The plan includes two phases. The short-term phase implies that lenders will provide a new tranche in the next 3-4 months that Greece could pay debts to the ECB and the IMF, as well as to support banks. The long-term one is a two-year lending program, which also involves the releif of a significant part of the Greek debt. Judging objectively, the "troika" is unlikely to agree to such conditions, although it is impossible to make any predictions in such a difficult and tense situation.

Nevertheless, the market took the news about the latest proposal by Greece positive, and the euro rose sharply to $ 1.1002, ending the session with only a slight decline - 0.48%. Earlier, the pair has dropped to a four-week low at 1.0917.

 

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Vista Brokers: Crude Oil Futures Are Falling again

On Wednesday, oil price are falling in price again. Vista Brokers analysts name several reasons for the decline: concerns over Greece, the panic in the Chinese stock market and the expectation of data on crude oil inventories from the US Energy Department.

Today during the Asian trading session, August futures for Brent have lost 38 cents, dropping to $ 56.47 per barrel. Since the beginning of the week, futures prices have dropped by more than 6% to April lows. US crude oil futures have tumbled today by 35 cents to $ 51.98, and since the beginning of the week they have lost about 8%.

Let us briefly describe all above-mentioned pressures. The development of the debt crisis in Greece continues to affect all financial markets. Lenders have given Athens timeuntil the end of the week to present a list of reforms in exchange for a new program of financial aid. Otherwise, Greece is likely to leave the euro zone.

As for China, the country's stock market continues to fall rapidly. The Shanghai Composite index has dropped at the opening by 6,97%, the Shenzhen Component has lost 4.44%. Compared to the peak in mid-June, the Shanghai Composite has sinked down by more than than 33% and the Shenzhen Component – by 40%. This weekend, the People's Bank of China said that it would take measures to ensure financial support and stabilize the stock market by providing sufficient liquidity to China Securities Finance Corporation (the only company in China that provides financing secured by margin to brokers). CSF, in turn, will actively buy shares of small and medium-sized companies, supporting the stability of blue chips and providing liquidity to the market.

The data on crude oil inventories from the US Energy Department will be published today - analysts suggest that the volume of stocks last week has plunged again (by about 700,000 barrels). Earlier was released the data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which showed a decrease of inventories by nearly 960,000 barrels in the same period.

 

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Vista Brokers: US Soybeans Are near 1-Week Low

On Wednesday, soybean futures declined for the fifth consecutive session, dropping to the 1-week minimum. Vista Brokers analysts note that the reason for the decline is the information on the good harvest in the US Midwest, as well as concerns about global economic slowdown.

Today at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, soybean futures for August delivery have fallen to the daily low of $ 9.8763 per bushel (the lowest level since 30 June) from the previously achieved level of $ 9.8850 (-0.31%). On Tuesday, the same futures has lost 2.96% during the day.

According to the US Department of Agriculture, as of July 5, about 63% of the crop of soybeans in the Midwest of the country is in good or excellent condition.

 

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Market Pulse 07/09

During early trading on Thursday in Australia and China was published a lot of important statistics. In Australia - the data on the labor market, and in China - the consumer price index and the producer price index. The Bank of England today will announce a decision on the interest rate, and the USA - data on unemployment claims.

6:00 ** Trade Balance - May (Germany)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The trade balance is the difference between exports and imports for the period. Positive values ​​are favorable for the currency, as they reflect the flow of money into the country.

11:00 *** Bank of England Interest Rate Decision - July (UK)
11:00 *** Asset Purchase Facility - July (UK)
11:00 *** MPC Rate Statement - July (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). From the Bank of England, investors do not expect any surprises. According to forecasts, the interest rate will remain at 0.50%, while the volume of asset purchases - 375 billion. Comments in the accompanying statement can be interesting.

12:30 ** New Housing Price Index - May (Canada)

Moderate impact on the market (CAD). This indicator is strongly correlated with the overall health of the economy and reflects the level of consumer confidence. The increase reflects positive trends.

12:30 *** Unemployment Claims - July (USA)
12:30 ** Continuing Claims - July (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits is a weekly indicator, having a great importance due to the expectation of the Fed's raising interest rate in September. It is expected reduction in the number of applications.

14:15 ** FOMC Member Lyell Braynard Speaks - July (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Braynard is a member of the FOMC, so his opinion influences decisions on monetary policy. Therefore, market participants are paying attention to his comments.

 

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Vista Brokers: Greece and Fed Rate Hike Are in Central Focus

On Wednesday, EUR / USD was traded in a wide range. Vista Brokers analysts note that main subjects that move the market are still the Greek crisis and the Federal Reserve interest rate hike.

Yesterday, the European authorities have given Greece a period until Thursday to provide a new proposal to creditors. Athens hope to agree on a program of financial assistance from the European Stability Mechanism, the bailout fund of the euro zone. If no agreement is reached, the EU leaders will gather on Sunday at an unscheduled summit in Brussels to discuss the procedure and consequences of a Greek exit from the currency union. The new Greek finance minister Euclid Tsakalatos said that a new proposal for the creditors is ready - it includes tax and pension reform, as well as debt relief.

During the US trading session on Wednesday the minutes of the last FOMC meeting were published. They showed that members of the Committee have expressed concerns that the situation in Greece will affect the financial markets, as well as were talking about the fact that the growth of the US economy should be more stable, and inflation - closer to the target of 2% before the rate hike. Thus, there are doubts that the Fed will raise the rate in September - investors will closely monitor the statistics published in the United States.