Market Analysis by Vistabrokers

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Market Pulse 04.02

On Wednesday, some European countries and the euro zone will publish data on the PMI index for the services sector. In the US and Canada some important indexes will be released, which may cause the growth of the market volatility.

8:00 ** Halifax House Price Index - January (UK)

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). One of the oldest indicators of the UK property market, which is always in the focus of investors.

8:55 ** Final Services PMI - January (Germany)
8:55 ** PMI Composite - January (Germany)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The index of purchasing managers in the service sector growth or exceeded forecast will be favorable for the currency. Analysts expect that in Germany the above mentioned indices remain at the level of December.

9:00 ** Final Services PMI - January (euro zone)
9:00 ** PMI Composite - January (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The index of purchasing managers in the service sector growth or exceeded forecast will be favorable for the currency. Analysts expect that in euro zone the above mentioned indices remain at the level of December.

9:30 *** Final Services PMI - January (UK)
9:30 ** PMI Composite - January (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). The index of purchasing managers in the service sector growth or exceeded forecast will be favorable for the currency. Analysts expect the growth of the index, which can support the pound.

10:00 ** Retail Sales - December (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). According to forecasts, the volume of retail trade in the euro area decreased, which means a reduction in consumer activity and may put pressure on the euro.

13:15 *** ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - January (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). This index is the main reference to official statistics, sometimes causing strong market fluctuations. The excess of the forecast is favorable for the dollar.

15:00 *** Ivey PMI - January (Canada)

Strong impact on the market (CAD). The index of purchasing managers in the service sector growth or exceeded forecast will be favorable for the currency. Analysts expect that in Canada the index will show a slight increase.

15:00 *** ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI - January (USA)
15:00 ** ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment Index - January (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). The value of the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in the USA is at a high level, and in January, analysts also expect a small increase - up to 56.6.

 

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Vista Brokers: Oil Completed its Rally

During the last few days, oil has increased in price by 19% and is now correcting from highs in anticipation of data on crude oil inventories in the United States and amid general concerns about demand.

Vista Brokers analysts say that Wednesday morning March futures for Brent were traded at $ 57.65 per barrel compared to $ 57.91 per barrel at the close of market on Tuesday. WTI futures are at $ 52.42 per barrel compared to $ 53.05 per barrel on Tuesday.

After the end of the last week, when oil prices had started to actively grow, investors began to talk about the fact that the oil market bottomed after seven straight months dropping and losing in price about 60%. During few days oil has grown by more than 20% from the minimum recorded on January 13 that technically means the beginning of "bull" market. But it seems that the bottom has not been reached.

On Wednesday fundamental factors pressured on oil. Firstly, according to the American Petroleum Institute, the US stocks last week rose by more than 6 million barrels. Secondly, a top Chinese energy company CNOOC Ltd announced that this year will significantly reduce the investment to adapt to the reduction in oil prices. The third is that index of business activity in the services sector in China in January rose at the slowest pace in six months. These data were known early Wednesday.

It is obvious that such a strong decline in oil prices that we have seen during the last few months, has a strong impact on the world economy. Some analysts still insist that the fall of the market in the long term will be benign. Decline in oil prices will stimulate economic growth, which in turn will support demand for commodities, including oil.

 

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Vista Brokers: Market Fixed Profit on AUD/USD

On Wednesday morning, the Australian dollar has come up – investors took profits after yesterday's AUD/USD fall to five-year low. Vista Brokers analysts note that on Tuesday the Australian dollar fell sharply after the Reserve Bank of Australia has unexpectedly cut interest rates.

After lowering the rate by 0.25% to a record 2.25% the RBA stood on a par with the world's central banks, which began 2015 with the next steps of monetary policy easing. Note that 2014 the Reserve Bank of Australia finished with the message about plans to keep interest rates at 2.50% throughout 2015, to support the mining sector. Therefore, yesterday's decision of the central bank was an absolute surprise for the markets.

Long-term forecasts for the Australian immediately began to be revised down. So Goldman Sachs chief economist Tim Toohey has lowered the forecast from $ 0.7500 to $ 0.7200 for the end of 2015.

 

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Vista Brokers: Positive News did not Support Euro

On Tuesday, European stock markets rose up amid positive earnings reports for Q4, strong statistics for the euro zone and progress in negotiations on Greek debt restructuring.

Representatives of the new Greek government held several meetings with the "top officials" of the European Union. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras met with European Commission President Juncker, President of the European Council and the European Parliament Tusk Schultz. A Greek Finance Minister visited the ECB president Draghi. Athens also reported about upcoming negotiations with the IMF on a partial exchange of Greek debt to "growth-linked" bonds.

Among positive statistics for the eurozone, Vista Brokers analysts paid attention to data on the composite PMI index, which in January rose to a six-month high - 52.6, as well as PMI index for the services sector - 52.7. Note that in Italy and Germany these indices have also showed good results, beating forecasts. And only in France data came slightly lower than expected. Retail sales in the euro area continued to rise in December, the growth continues for the third month in a row.

Despite this positive news background, EUR/USD only managed to push off from session lows and recover from 1.1437 to 1.1470. The pair failed to rise up to the level of 1.15.

 

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Market Pulse 05.02

On Thursday, the economic calendar is not too saturated, but many publications are quite important and can affect the dynamics of currency pairs. In the UK, the central bank will announce the decision on interest rates, in Canada and the US data on trade balance will be published. And, of course, the market will wait for data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States.

7:00 ** Factory Orders - December (Germany)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Factory orders is often a leading indicator of the industrial production dynamics for several months. Positive data are favorable for the euro, and in December, analysts expect the rate growth.

12:00 *** Bank of England Interest Rate Decision - February (UK)
12:00 *** Bank of England Interest Rate Decision - February (UK)
12:00 *** MPC Rate Statement - February (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). The market does not expect any surprises from the Bank of England, though, judging by recent events, investors' expectations are not always met with reality. For example, nobody has expected the rate reducing by 0.25 percentage points from the Reserve Bank of Australia or strict franc/euro peg refusal from the Bank of Switzerland.

13:30 *** Trade Balance - December (Canada)
13:30 *** Trade Balance - December (US)

Strong impact on the market (CAD, USD). Trade balance is the difference between export and import . Positive value is favorable for the national currency, reflecting the inflow of money into the country.

13:30 *** Unemployment Claims - January (USA)
13:30 ** Continuing Claims - January (USA)
13:30 ** Prelim Nonfarm Productivity - Q4 (USA)
13:30 ** Prelim Unit Labor Costs - Q4 (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). Data on the US labor market often have a significant impact on the market. Analysts expect that during the reporting week, the number of initial claims for benefits was increasing, and if the data is better than forecasts, it can support the dollar.

 

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Vista Brokers: Greece is in Market Focus Again

As Vista Brokers analysts have predicted, the euro is very sensitive to any news on Greece. Earlier this week, the single currency was supported when the Greek government has put forward a constructive proposal for a partial exchange of debt for growth-linked bonds. The authorities in Athens have also hold some meetings with representatives of international lenders to discuss the proposal, and investors have gotten a hope for a positive solution of the situation in Greece.

But on Wednesday night, the European Central Bank announced that from now Greek bonds will not be accepted as collateral for loans from the central bank. Amid this news EUR/USD dropped from 1.1483 to 1.1391. On Thursday morning, the pair rebounded slightly, and then continued to decline.

The ECB's decision was a surprise for the market because after the meeting with the ECB president Mario Draghi Greek Finance Minister Janis Varufakis said that the central bank would "whatever it takes" support each member country, including Greece. But it seems that the meeting of Varufakis and Draghi was not as efficient as it seemed to the Minister of Finance.

Experts believe that in this way the ECB wants to put pressure on the Greek government and force it to agree with the terms of the old loan program, which include austerity for the country. The decision of the central bank increases the uncertainty in the "Greek problem", because now for a safe way out, Athens will need to overcome this obstacle too.

The ECB decision had an impact on the stock markets. Both in Europe and in Asia the major stock indexes opened on Thursday with a reduction. Britain's FTSE lost 0.6%, German DAX - 0.9%, the French CAC - 1.1%. In Japan, the Nikkei, which on Wednesday scored 2%, now went down by 0.8%. The index of Asia-Pacific region excluding Japan MSCI fell by 0.1% after rising by 1% a day earlier.

 

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Vista Brokers: Winter Economic Forecast Stimulated Euro to Increase

Thursday morning began with the reduction of the euro on news that the ECB no longer accept Greek government bonds as collateral that significantly limit the ability of credit for the Greek financial system. Information overwhelmed market participants who only had cheered up after the news of Athens negotiations with international creditors.

However, as Vista Brokers analysts say, the euro decline did not last long - the currency returned to growth versus the US dollar after the European Commission has improved its forecast for economic growth in the eurozone. Now the EC considers that in 2015 the GDP of the monetary union will increase by 1.3% against the previous forecast of 1.1%, and in 2016 - by 1.9%. The forecast for unemployment rate has also been reduced from 11.3% to 11.2%.

However, there was a negative aspect: the experts expect the inflation to reduce by 0.1% in 2015, and if the forecast is justified, for the euro area this will be the first deflation in its history.

However, after the announcement of the European Commission updated forecasts, the euro rose to $ 1.1425 from $ 1.1344 at the close of US trading session on Wednesday. In addition, the euro rose by more than 1% in the pair with the Swiss franc. Analysts report that the Swiss National Bank buys back the single currency to weaken the franc.

Among important statistics of the day we can note results of the Bank of England meeting. Asit was expected the British central bank has left interest rates unchanged at -0.5%. Amid this news pound strengthened to a maximum of three weeks against the dollar.

 

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Market Pulse 06.02

On Friday, New Zealand is celebrating Treaty of Waitangi, Australia has already published the RBA Monetary Policy Statement for Q1 2015. The day will be rather active and full with important statistics, especially in Canada and in the United States.

7:00 ** Industrial Production - December (Germany)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Analysts predict a slight increase in German industrial production in December. Rate increase or exceeding the forecast is favorable for the currency.

9:30 ** Visible Trade Balance - December (UK)
9:30 ** Trade Balance Non EU - December (UK)

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). Trade balance is the difference between exports and imports. High values are favorable for the currency, because they reflect a smaller money outflow from the country (as a rule, Britain suffers from a deficit).

13:30 *** Building Permits - December (Canada)
13:30 *** Unemployment Rate - January (Canada)
13:30 *** Employment Change - January (Canada)
13:30 ** Full Time Employment Change - January (Canada)
13:30 ** Part Time Employment Change - January (Canada)

Strong impact on the market (CAD). Analysts expect the oppositely directed data. Growth in building permits and the number of employees can have a positive impact on the Canadian dollar. However, the unemployment rate is expected to rise by 0.1%.

13:30 *** Unemployment Rate - January (USA)
13:30 *** Non-Farm Employment Change - January (USA)
13:30 ** Change in Private Payrolls - January (USA)
13:30 ** Change in Manufacturing Payrolls - January (USA)
13:30 ** Average Hourly Earnings - January (USA)
13:30 ** Participation Rate - January (USA)
13:30 ** Two-Month Payroll Net Revision - January (USA)
13:30 ** Establishment Employment Survey Annual Revisions - January (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). A large portion of data on the labor market may increase the volatility of the market. In general, analysts expect not too positive data.

17:45 ** FOMC Member Dennis Lockhart Speaks - February (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Dennis Lockhart is the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and a voting member of the FOMC, that why his opinion affects the monetary policy committee, so Lockhart comments can cause volatility in the markets.

 

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Vista Brokers: Possible Fed Rates Increase is Long-term Support Factor for Dollar

On Thursday, yet another central bank has decided to decrease interest rates - Bank of Denmark has lowered the deposit rate from -0.50% to -0.75%. It is noteworthy that for the Kingdom it is the fourth decline in the past three weeks. Thus the regulator is trying to deal with the strengthening of the Danish krone against the euro.

So far, the Fed remains the only regulator of largest world's economies, tuned to the increase in rates, and it will provide support to the US dollar in the long run.

Vista Brokers analysts point out that this has started for the index of the US currency with increase by 5% in January, which is the largest monthly increase since May 2012. Investors have expected that some central banks announce new measures of monetary policy easing, while the Federal Reserve keeps course of its tightening.

Such is indeed the case. In mid-January, the SNB released franc to the "free floating". In late January, the ECB made a statement about the launch of an ambitious quantitative easing program. And then one by one the world's banks began to cut rates. The biggest surprise for the market was the rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia to a record low 2.25%. Immediately thereafter, the Australian dollar plummeted to a new low of 5.5 years, and the stock market rose to a peak of May 2008.

The Canadian dollar also fell to five-year low against the US dollar after the Bank of Canada has cut its main rate to 0.75%. Analysts believe that in this way the bank, which never cut interest rates since 2010, is protecting from lower oil prices. This resource takes a large share of exports in Canada and Australia.

Thus, the difference between the monetary policy of the Fed and other banks diverges more and more, contributing to the strengthening of the dollar. But does the Fed really ready to raise interest rates? At this point there are different opinions. For example, billionaire Warren Buffett said that for the Fed it would be "very difficult" to raise rates this year because of too strong dollar.

And experts of Congress Budget Office (CBO) believe that the United States may "save" more than $ 2.3 trillion, if interest rates will be holden at current levels until 2025. They point out that the preservation of US interest rates at a low level in the coming years may restrain the growth of the budget deficit and debt load.

Meanwhile, the market expects that the Fed will raise rates as early as mid-2015.

 

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Vista Brokers: Markets Wait for US Labor Market Data

During the US trading session on Friday a large portion of data on the US labor market will be published. Among it is closely monitored by the market non-farm payrolls. Vista Brokers analysts note that in anticipation of the important statistics, market participants are not very active. Euro this morning is declining against the dollar after having surged 1.2% the previous day. The growth is observed in the Asian stock markets.

Analysts expect that the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector of the US has rose in January by 234,000 after the December growth by 252,000. Perhaps this will be the 12th consecutive month, when non-farm payrolls grows by more than 200,000 per month, and the US economy has not seen such situation since 1994. There are also more bold predictions. For example, chief forex analyst at Standard Chartered Callum Henderson believes that the indicator will rise by 260,000 in January. The growth rate and the excess of the forecast will strengthen investors' expectations about the Fed raising interest rates later this year.

 

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Market Pulse 09.02

On Monday, the economic calendar is almost empty. Today the ECB President Mario Draghi speeks, as well as the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. In Turkey opens the G20 meetings.

6:00 ** Eco Watchers Survey: Current - January (Japan)
6:00 ** Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook - January (Japan)

Moderate impact on the market (JPY). For both indices, analysts expect a small growth, although these indices rarely have an impact on the yen. They are based on a survey of workers engaged in services.

6:40 *** BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks - February (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). Carney comments about the economic situation, the real estate market, inflation etc can significantly affect the pound.

7:00 ** Trade Balance - December (Germany)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Trade balance is the difference between exports and imports for the period. Positive values are favorable for the currency, because they reflect the flow of money into the country.

** ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks
** G20 Meetings - Day 1

 

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Vista Brokers: Strong Labor Market Data Strengthened Expectations for Fed Rate Hike

On Friday, the dollar has gotten a support after strong employment data in the United States. Immediately after the non-farm payrolls publication US currency rose against the Japanese one from 117.22 to 118.38 yen. The EUR/USD at the end of the day has lost about 1%, dropping to $ 1.1365. Vista Brokers analysts note that jobs data, as well as a number of other, less important indicators were published more than expected and this strengthen market expectations about the Fed rate hike.

Thus, the number of people employed in the US non-agricultural sector in January has risen by 257,000, versus the expected 236 000. Data for December were revised with an increase from 252 000 to 329 000. In the private and business sectors of the economy the number of jobs also increased more than analysts have expected. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% month on month and 2.2% year on year, against forecasts of 0.3% and 1.9%, respectively. The participation rate has also increased.

The only negative of a large portion of statistics was an unexpected increase in the unemployment rate from 5.6% to 5.7%. Analysts had expected the unemployment rate in January will remain the same.

Experts point out that the positive labor market data is a serious ground to believe that the Fed will begin to raise interest rates in the middle of this year. Over the past three months, the US economy has created over a million jobs, and such a high result, the country has not seen since 1997. In addition, January marked the 11th straight month of job gains above 200,000, the longest streak since 1994.

 

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Vista Brokers: Dollar Corrects after Friday's Rally

On Friday, the strong data on US labor market caused the dollar's rally against its major competitors. Of course, the growth could not last forever, so on Monday, the EUR/USD is slowly recovering. The market's focus shifted back to Greece, which confirmed its rejection of an international bailout program.

Vista Brokers analysts note that the dollar index today fell against a basket of currencies by 0.2% to 94,535. The euro has lost about 1.5% on Friday and today rose by 0.2% to $ 1.1338. The USD/JPY after the abor market data publication has refreshed its one-month high at around 119.23 and on Monday the pair lost 0.3% and dropped to 118.75 yen. To one-month-high at 1.965% on Friday has jumped the yield on 10-year US "treasuries", which today fell to 1.922%.

Recall that Friday's data showed a rebound in U.S. wages and nonfarm payrolls increasing by 257,000 in January, outstripping forecasts. This reinforced investors' hopes that the Fed will raise rates as early as June of this year.

Having taken a lead from this information in full, the market returned to the painful "Greek question." On Sunday, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said that Athens will not ask for extension of the financial aid program, which expires on February 28, despite the pressure from international lenders.

He also reiterated his plans to rebuild the Greek economy, which run counter to the austerity program recommended by the ECB, the EU and the IMF. Tsipras promises to raise the minimum wage, to suspend the privatization, to create new jobs.

At this stage, the new Greek government talks with creditors do not inspire confidence in the successful resolution of the situation. The market was hoping that not having achieved concessions from lenders, Athens will soft its rhetoric and offer a compromise solution, but Tsipras shows a willingness to stay the course.

On Wednesday, Greek Finance Minister Janis Varufakis will speak at an emergency meeting of eurozone finance ministers and will submit proposal for the restructuring of Greek debt. So far, all the proposals of Greece international lenders reject, however today the market is set positive - many believe that as a result of the negotiations Greece will be able to reach a compromise with its lenders.

 

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Vista Brokers: Aussie Continues to Lose Ground

On Monday, the Australian dollar declines against the US one after Friday's strong data on the US labor market, as well as the latest statistics from China. Vista Brokers analysts note that on Sunday in China was published the weak data on the trade balance, import and export. Particularly, in January the volume of import decreased by 19.9%. Exports also fell by 3.3% against the expected growth of 5.8%. Data weighed on commodity currencies and the Asian stock market.

According to analysts, the outlook for the Australian dollar in the long term is now being reconsidered. So, the National Australia Bank lowered its forecast for Aussie at the end of 2015 to $ 0.7400 from $ 0.7800. However, experts consider a scenario in which the currency will fall below $ 0.7000.

NAB also expects at least one more rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia this year. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens, speaking on the presentation of the Bank of China in Sydney, preferred to avoid the issue of monetary policy, without giving the market new reasons for excitement.

 

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Market Pulse 10.02

On Tuesday G20 meetings continues in Turkey. Australia has already published the NAB business confidence data, and China - the consumer price index. Britain and France today will report on changes in the volume of industrial production in December.

7:45 ** Industrial Production - December (France)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Often, the production is a small contribution to GDP, but it allows to predict the dynamics of interest rates. In France, analysts expect a small growth of the rate.

9:30 *** Industrial Production - December (UK)
9:30 ** Manufacturing Production - December (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). Growth or exceeded forecasts support the pound. In December, analysts expect a slight growth of both indices.

13:20 ** FOMC Member Jeffrey Lacker Speaks - February (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Lacker is a voting member of the FOMC, that is, its opinion affects the monetary policy of the Committee, so his comments may cause volatility in the markets.

15:00 ** NIESR GDP Estimate - January (UK)

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). The indicator is based on preliminary data, but it is often close to the official level of GDP, so the market pays attention to it.

15:00 ** JOLTs Job Openings - December (US)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Publication rarely has an impact on the market, but the growth of this indicator reflects an improvement in the labor market situation, showing a high demand for workers.

 

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Vista Brokers: This Week Key Factors for EUR/USD are Greece and Eurozone GDP

New trading week the single currency began with a slight increase after Friday lost of about 1.5% against the dollar amid positive data on the US labor market. On Monday growth did not last long, and in the middle of the day EUR/USD dropped to the lower limit of its trading range - 1.1310 amid a negativity from Greece.

Vista Brokers analysts say that in Greece markets are falling and the banking sector is on the brink of disaster. The S&P has downgraded the sovereign credit rating of Greece to B- from B with a negative outlook. Of course, it sows pessimism among investors, causing them to return to the subject of a Greek exit from the eurozone.

According to experts, the "Greek question" will play a big role this week - on Wednesday will be Eurogroup meetings, and on Thursday – the EU Economic Summit, and these events can play a big role in the negotiations. Recall that Athens sought to develop a comprehensive solution to their economic problems, offering international lenders options for restructuring the debt. However, those yet reject all proposals, insisting on extending the program of financial assistance in a tight economy.

An important factor for the euro this week will also be data on Eurozone GDP for the 4th quarter, which will be released on Friday. It is expected that the GDP has risen by 0.2%. Before the publication of data analysts Barclays Bank advise to sell the euro/dollar.

 

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Vista Brokers: Oil Drops Amid IEA Forecasts

On Tuesday, oil prices fall amid predictions of increasing production in the United States and the report of the International Energy Agency. Brent futures for March delivery fell to $ 58.58 per barrel, and WTI futures - to $ 52.97 per barrel.

Vista Brokers analysts point out that the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast has put a pressure on oil prices. According to it the growth in world oil demand in the next 5 years will be only 1.2% per year. It has reminded investors about the problem of weak demand amid oversupply, which in recent months was having a strong pressure on the oil market. IEA expects prices to return above $ 70 a barrel, but it will happen no earlier than in 2020.

However, the International Energy Agency attitude to the situation in the market is quite optimistic. In their view, the market has reached its bottom, and now oil may begin to rise, though very restrained pace. The growth rate of oil supply in the world until 2020 will amount to 860 thousand barrels per day, whereas in 2014 the increase was 1.8 million.

Recall that since the middle of last week, oil prices grew fast after it became known that the number of people working on the rigs in the United States greatly reduced - to the minimum amount since December 2011. Earlier this week it became known that OPEC raised its forecasts for global demand in 2015 to 92.32 million barrels per day (20 barrels compared with the previous forecast). So on Monday the oil market has also increased.

It is also worth noting that Citigroup analysts do not endorse the IEA views that oil prices have reached the bottom, and expect reduction of up to 20 dollars per barrel. Recent price increasing they call a false breakout trend. Experts have lowered their forecasts for 2015 for WTI from $ 55 to $ 46 per barrel and for Brent - from $ 63 to $ 54 per barrel.

 

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Market Pulse 11.02

On Wednesday, the economic calendar is almost empty, and the only event that can seriously affect the markets is Eurogroup meetings, where some ways to solve the situation in Greece may be identified. In Japan today, the markets do not work, as the country celebrates National Foundation Day. In the United States during the day will be published a number of data on oil reserves, which can affect the commodity markets.

15:30 ** Crude Oil Inventories - February (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Changes in the level of crude oil reserves in barrels. This indicator is the benchmark of demand level, as well as a good driver for the oil market.

18:01 ** 10-y Bond Auction - February (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). US Treasury allocates its debt obligations. 10-year bonds are the reference in terms of reflecting the demand and market sentiment. Decline in yield is positive for the currency.

 

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Vista Brokers: EUR/USD Continues to Swing

On Tuesday some new facts on Greece negotiations with international creditors became known. Athens offers to save 70% of the current loan program conditions, as well as to attract short-term funding in the amount of 10 billion euros to avoid a credit crunch and buy some time for negotiations.

Vista Brokers analysts note that amid this news, European stock markets has recovered. US dollar and US "treasuries" yield got stronger, thanks to the growing investor confidence that the Fed will raise interest rates this year. Major US stock indexes on Tuesday also showed growth.

As for the EUR/USD, it has continued to "swing". First fell to $ 1.1275 pressurized with concerned investors, and then went back above $ 1.13 after reports of a new stage of negotiations.

Analysts say that today's meeting of the Eurogroup is extremely important event for the market, because some decisions on Greece can be identified, and some comments may be given.

"Greek problem" should be resolved in a short time because on February 28 the program of financial aid ends, and on 1 March Athens will be left without help of lenders. The situation in the money market of the country is critical - the yield of Greek bonds on Monday jumped to 21.74%, the highest since July 2014. If yields remain at such a high level the country will not be available to incur debts.

 

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Vista Brokers: Aussie Ignored Strong Statistics

On Wednesday morning, the Australian dollar rose against the US dollar to 0.7797, but quickly returned to Tuesday's closing level - 0.7770. Vista Brokers analysts point out that the positive statistics published by night, could not give Aussie an impetus to growth, as globally the currency is pressured by lower prices for oil and copper.

In particular, it became known that the consumer sentiment index from Wespac and Melbourne Institute rose in February from 93.2 to 100.7, the first time since February 2014 exceeded the level of 100. The volume of mortgage lending in December also rose more than expected and much better than November values. On a monthly basis loans increased by 2.7%, and year over year - by 4.5%. However, analysts believe that the volume of loans has increased, mainly due to speculative investment in real estate.

This week, the Australian dollar may have a good "shake". Tomorrow Australia will publish a number of important data on employment and on inflation expectations. Also within the "currency week" the RBA assistant governor Guy Debelle will speak (Wednesday, 22.00 GMT), and the RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will speak in front of a parliamentary committee on regular hearings on monetary policy (Thursday, 22.30 GMT).

Tomorrow's stats unlikely to be on the side of the Aussie - analysts expect that in January the unemployment rate in Australia rose from 6.1% to 6.2%, while the number of employees decreased due to cuts in production. According to forecasts of the RBA, unemployment in the country will rise gradually to 6.5% and will remain close to this level of the entire 2016, and only in 2017 will fall to previous levels.

It is likely that RBA Governor Glenn Stevens in his speech will give gloomy forecasts for the Australian economy, supporting market expectations of further interest rate cuts.