Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

NZD hit new lows. Overview for 19.04.2024

The New Zealand dollar, paired with the US dollar, is declining on Friday. The current NZDUSD exchange rate stands at 0.5882.

Investors are avoiding risks, which affects the New Zealand dollar, among other factors. The geopolitical factor in the Middle East currently plays a significant role as the primary market catalyst.

Moreover, the US Federal Reserve’s aggressive commentary pressured the NZD. Investors are considering that the Fed might not reduce interest rates this year. This situation strengthens the US dollar’s position and hurts other currencies.

This week, New Zealand released statistics indicating that inflation in Q1 dropped to 4% y/y, the lowest CPI value since summer 2021.

Meanwhile, the RBNZ’s official inflation forecast for Q1 remains at 3.8%.

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Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EUR is rising moderately. Overview for 22.04.2024

The primary currency pair maintains its upward trajectory on Monday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0663.

Recent comments from the US Federal Reserve have led investors to reconsider global interest rate cut timelines. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is believed to start reducing the interest rate in the mid-year.

ECB member Madis Muller stated on Friday that the regulator may cut interest rates several times by the end of the year after the initial move in June if inflation is in line with expectations. ECB president Christine Lagarde hinted at the same last week without providing indications of specific timelines.

ECB official Robert Holzmann stated earlier that the ECB will likely need more time to be prepared to cut rates as aggressively as planned.

As usual, opinions differ, but this diversity of viewpoints proves positive: the market is concerned about prospects and, therefore, carefully analyses the developments.

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Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

JPY is falling again. Overview for 23.04.2024

The Japanese yen, paired with the US dollar, paused in the morning but has since resumed its decline. The current USDJPY exchange rate stands at 154.78.

Today, the USDJPY pair reached a new 34-year high of 154.80, prompting further commentary from Japanese policymakers within the framework of verbal interventions. Japan's finance minister, Shunichi Suzuki, referred to last week's meeting between the US, Japan, and South Korea, saying that this trilateral meeting laid the groundwork for addressing the yen's high volatility issue. Suzuki's statement today became the strongest warning to the market.

The Bank of Japan's next meeting will be held this week, but no miracles are expected from it. The quarterly forecast on the economy and prices will be of interest. In this release, the CB should show how the yen's devaluation has influenced the economic system.

Last week, BoJ governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the regulator might raise interest rates again if the yen's weakness induces sustainable growth due to higher import costs.

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Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

AUD is confident. Overview for 24.04.2024

The Australian dollar, paired with the US dollar, looks promising mid-week. The current AUDUSD exchange rate is 0.6515, marking the highest level in almost two weeks.

Investors are reacting to fresh statistics on Australian inflation and believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia will not lower interest rates for now.

Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped from 4.1% to 3.6% q/q in Q1. The figure exceeded the forecasted 3.4% level but continued to slow down for the fifth consecutive quarter. Data from earlier this week revealed the private sector's most impressive expansion in two years. Manufacturing activity in Australia approached the break-even point, while service sector activity reached its highest in three months. All this confirms that the Australian economy is stable and sturdy.

The prospect of the RBA keeping the interest rate unchanged logically supports the Aussie.

Additional support comes from the local weakness of the US dollar.

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Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EUR has paused. Overview for 25.04.2024

The main currency pair paused its ascent on Thursday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0705.

Nothing significant happened; the market remains highly sensitive to even the slightest changes in global sentiment.

Today, the US will release the GDP statistics for Q1 2024. The economy is expected to grow by 2.5% compared to the previous 3.4%. A local slowdown in economic growth at the beginning of the year may be a normal response to some dip in activity. However, the GDP is forecasted to gain dynamics later on.

The market believes the US dollar is emerging as the most effective currency this year. Simultaneously, the fundamental performance of the US economic system compared to other countries suggests that USD could continue rising against other currencies.

The US dollar is supported by rising US government spending and high demand for the safe-haven asset. Moreover, the deflationary effect of China's economic decline buoys the USD.

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Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EUR is rising smoothly. Overview for 26.04.2024

The primary currency pair demonstrates a modest increase on Friday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0722.

The market is uncertain whether the US Federal Reserve has all the necessary arguments to lower the interest rate in the near future. Yesterday's weak US GDP release for Q1 2024 could have been a reason to soften the monetary policy if the Fed were prepared to act.

The US economy increased by only 1.6% in January-March, contrary to the expected rise of 2.5%. In Q4 last year, the GDP demonstrated a 3.4% increase.

Meanwhile, consumer demand remains high. This factor limits the Fed's actions, compelling it to await a more opportune moment to lower the rate.

Today, the macroeconomic calendar is packed with statistics. The focus is on the March Core PCE inflationary component and reports on Americans' income and spending for the previous month.

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Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

AUD continues to rise. Overview for 29.04.2024

The Australian dollar appears strong against the US dollar. The current AUDUSD exchange rate stands at 0.6567.

The Aussie surpassed a three-week high against its American counterpart as the USD slightly corrected its position ahead of this week's meeting. It is worth noting that the Aussie has surged to its 11-year high against the JPY. The anticipated currency interventions from the Bank of Japan still do not deter anyone.

Previous inflation statistics in Australia reinforced expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will not embark on monetary policy easing anytime soon. The consumer price index in Q1 declined to 3.6% from the previous 4.1%. However, it remained above the forecasted 3.4%, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of easing inflationary pressure.

Meanwhile, the monthly index accelerated in March, reaching 3.5% from 3.4% in February.

This week, Australia will publish retail sales and trade statistics, providing further insights into the state of the economy.

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Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

JPY remains highly volatile. Overview for 02.05.2024

The Japanese yen, paired with the US dollar, declines again. The current USDJPY exchange rate stands at 155.82.

The market speculates about the reason behind the yen’s strong movements this week. Although the Japanese authorities have not officially confirmed interventions to support the national currency, investors are convinced that there were financial injections, and twice.

One of Japan’s monetary policymakers Masato Kanda stated that the government would disclose data on possible interventions at the end of next month.

Financial injections are likely to have driven the yen’s short-term rally. Such interventions will not produce a significant effect as the main reason for JPY’s weakness is the difference between the interest rates of the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve. Nothing has changed on this issue.

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Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

JPY declines again. Overview for 07.05.2024

The Japanese yen, paired with the US dollar, resumes its decline. The current USDJPY exchange rate stands at 154.54.

After a series of strengthening moves, the yen came under pressure again amid the statements of a leading monetary policymaker Masato Kanda that the government is ready to fight speculative movements of exchange rates. However, Kanda left unanswered the question of interventions last week.

The yen rose by 5.2% from its 34-year lows, with strong growth observed during three sessions but then stopping.

As the Bank of Japan data shows, at least 60 billion USD was spent to protect the yen.

If these were targeted interventions, it is no wonder that the yen resumed its decline once they were over. Fundamental indicators remain negative for the JPY – the difference between the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve approaches is profound.

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Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

AUD is declining. Overview for 08.05.2024

The Australian dollar, paired with the US dollar, is retreating. The current AUDUSD exchange rate stands at 0.6577.

The Reserve Bank of Australia left the interest rate unchanged at 4.35% after its Monday meeting. Overall, the RBA maintained a cautious stance on monetary policy, emphasising the need to monitor developments in its comments.

Simultaneously, the regulator has acknowledged an unexpected rise in inflation and a sudden decrease in the unemployment rate. These factors have been reflected in the revised official macroeconomic forecasts, which have led to a downward revision of GDP forecasts.

The RBA acknowledged considerable uncertainty regarding short-term interest rates. Monetary policymakers will remain vigilant regarding the risks of mounting inflation. This time, monetary authorities considered the possibility of an interest rate hike alongside other scenarios.

The RBA primarily aims to curb inflation without pushing the economy into recession.

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Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

NZD is declining. Overview for 13.05.2024

The New Zealand dollar, paired with the US dollar, is retreating. The current NZDUSD exchange rate stands at 0.6008.

The position of the US dollar has stabilised, once again exerting pressure on the NZD. The market focus is shifting to the US inflation statistics, which are scheduled for release this week.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hold its meeting next week, with the interest rate expected to remain at 5.5% per annum. The RBNZ intends to maintain its restrictive monetary policy until there are more concrete indications that inflation is approaching the designated 2% target.

Overall, the RBNZ's position aligns with the global agenda: monitoring prices, recording economic slowdown facts, and keeping its finger on the pulse to intervene at the right moment.

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Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD reached equilibrium. Overview for 14.05.2024

The primary currency pair is consolidating on Tuesday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0784.

The currency market is clearly conserving strength ahead of this week's release of the US consumer price index report, projected to provide much insight into the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory.

According to the CME FedWatch monitor, the likelihood of an interest rate cut at the September meeting is 60%.

This week's attention is focused on the US consumer price index, scheduled for release this Wednesday. Core inflation in April is expected to have increased by 0.3% m/m, which is lower than the March value of 0.4% m/m. However, before that, on Tuesday, the US will publish the producer price index statistics for April. The market will meticulously analyse the data to understand how quickly inflation is approaching the 2% target.

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Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD has reached a new five-week peak. Overview for 15.05.2024

The primary currency pair is advancing on Wednesday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0822.

Upbeat comments from Jerome Powell, the US Federal Reserve chair, regarding the state of the US economy weighed on the US dollar. He gave a relatively confident outlook on GDP growth rates. Powell believes that the economy is still growing more vigorously than the trend. Additionally, he is convinced that inflationary pressures will ease. Despite recent statistics that could challenge this confidence, Powell remains steadfast in his optimistic views.

This year, high consumer prices have prompted the Federal Reserve to alter its monetary policy trajectory, compelling it to abandon its monetary easing strategy to gather more data.

Investors anticipated six interest rate cuts in January, but now, only one is expected. According to the CME FedWatch monitor data, the interest rate may be lowered by a maximum of 45 basis points this year, with the first cut expected in September.

Today is crucial as the market awaits inflation and retail sales data for April.

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Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

JPY “revives”. Overview for 16.05.2024

The Japanese yen, paired with the US dollar, has significantly strengthened. The current exchange rate for USDJPY stands at 153.88.

The yen found support as the US dollar fell. Following the release of inflation data the previous day, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut increased markedly. Inflation in April slowed to 3.4% y/y from the earlier 3.5%, with the core CPI dropping to 3.6% y/y from 3.8%. This easing of inflationary pressure provides grounds for anticipating a greater potential for a Fed rate cut in September.

Consequently, the dollar retreated, enabling the yen to regain its position.

However, the morning’s GDP statistics for Japan failed to inspire confidence. The economy contracted by 2.0% year-on-year in Q1 2024, surpassing the expected 1.5% decline. The downturn was 0.5% on a quarter-to-quarter basis, higher than the projected -0.3%. The report shows that weak private consumption emerged as the primary driver behind the GDP fall, marking a decline for four consecutive quarters.

Meanwhile, yen investors remained undeterred by the report, preoccupied with market corrections.

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Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

JPY is declining again. Overview for 17.05.2024

The Japanese yen, paired with the US dollar, is retreating at the end of the week. The current USDJPY exchange rate stands at 155.77.

Morning data showed that the Bank of Japan had kept the volume of bond purchases the same, refraining from taking action after reducing the volume earlier in the week.

Investors speculated that the Japanese regulator kept the amounts unchanged, believing that the JPY had already received support from the recent weakening of the US dollar. Meanwhile, traders continue to bet that the BoJ will decide to lower bond purchase parameters at its upcoming meeting.

It is worth noting Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda’s statement that the central bank has no plans to sell its assets.

This week’s statistics showed a slowdown in the Japanese economy. The country’s GDP in Q1 contracted by 2% y/y, falling short of expectations. Private consumption has declined for four consecutive quarters, dragging down the entire system.

Such a report presents significant challenges for the Bank of Japan, which must balance supporting the economic system and protecting the weak yen.

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Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD is slightly higher. Overview for 20.05.2024

The primary currency pair looks lively on Monday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0880.

This morning, the exchange rate touched 1.0895, marking a two-month peak tested last week.

The market will soon mainly focus on the core PCE data, a key inflation indicator used by the Federal Reserve to gauge price pressure. This data will be released on 31 May. The market believes that the Fed will not have all the necessary statistics for its next meeting and will, therefore, not make crucial decisions in June or July.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell might use his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in August to present his stance regarding the September meeting.

Investors will focus this week on the publication of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes and the eurozone's current PMI data.

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Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

GBP is rising higher. Overview for 21.05.2024

The British pound is strengthening its position against the US dollar. The current GBPUSD exchange rate stands at 1.2709.

The pound appears steady, supported by the local decline in the US dollar and comments from monetary policymakers. In his speech yesterday, Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent did not rule out a summer interest rate cut.

However, Broadbent provided no specific information indicating that this scenario is inevitable. Market expectations show the likelihood of lowering the interest rate to 5.00% from the current 5.25% at the next meeting in June.

The Bank of England continues to gather information and data on the state of the UK’s economic system. If the situation continues to develop in line with its forecasts, the bank rate will likely change.

On Wednesday, the UK will release inflation statistics, crucial for understanding the BoE’s future actions. According to the consensus forecast, the consumer price index decreased to 2.1% in April from 3.2% in March. The Bank of England’s CPI target is precisely 2.0%.

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Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD activity has declined. Overview for 22.05.2024

The primary currency pair is hardly moving on Wednesday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0853.

The US dollar appears stable as the currency market conserves strength ahead of tonight’s release of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting minutes. Investors have already weighed calls for patience from some monetary policymakers and are now eager to compare these comments with the official documents.

With a scarcity of significant macroeconomic statistics scheduled for this week, the market has to depend on its own data and interpretations of current developments. The major currencies are moving within narrow ranges.

Meanwhile, forecasts for a stronger-than-expected interest rate cut are becoming more relevant following last week’s weak April inflation reports release.

The consensus forecast suggests the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 43 basis points this year. A week ago, this figure was 52 basis points.

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Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

GBP is appreciating. Overview for 23.05.2024

The British pound sterling is still ascending against the US dollar. The current exchange rate for GBPUSD stands at 1.2727.

Yesterday's published statistics revealed a decrease in British inflation. On a year-on-year basis, the Consumer Price Index in April fell to 2.3% from the previous 3.2%. The forecast had anticipated a more significant decline to 2.1% y/y. On a month-on-month basis, inflation rose by 0.3% compared to the previous 0.6%, once again defying expectations and not ruling out the 0.2% increase.

Investors' reaction to the inflation statistics was not positive. The data suggests that the Bank of England will maintain a wait-and-see stance for now, but by August, it may be ready to begin an easing cycle. These expectations are worse than before: prior to the release of statistics, the market had anticipated a cut in the BoE interest rate as early as June.

It is said on the market that the pound currently needs grounds to stand out among the G-10 currencies. The interest rate in the UK remains at 5.25% per annum. With it staying high, the pound is gaining on this front.

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Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD shows no resistance. Overview for 24.05.2024

The primary currency pair continues to weaken at the end of the week. The current exchange rate for EURUSD stands at 1.0805.

May statistics showed that business activity in the US accelerated to the highest level in two years. The preliminary value of the Markit Services PMI increased to 54.8 points in May from 51.3 points previously, and the Manufacturing PMI in May rose to 50.9 points from 50.0 points.

At the same time, several manufacturers reported an increase in prices for a range of resources, providing one of the reasons for revising expectations regarding the US Federal Reserve interest rates. Such signals are pro-inflationary and are negative news for the Fed.

According to CME's FedWatch monitor, the timing for the Fed's first interest rate cut has now been pushed from November to December.

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Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team