Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

USD/JPY: PRICE REACHED 89 MOVING AVERAGE
14:56 16.08.2017

The price has reached the 89 Moving Average, but there isn't any reversal pattern so far. We could have a local bearish correction, but the pair is likely going to climb even higher afterwards.

We've got a bearish "Tweezers", but confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the upper "Window", which could be a departure point for a decline.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_price_reached_89_moving_average_3010

 

[riki143]

AUD/JPY REVERSED FROM SUPPORT AREA
19:42 16.08.2017

AUD/JPY reversed from support area
Next buy target - 88.00
AUD/JPY has been rising in the last few trading sessions – following the earlier upward reversal from support area lying between the strong support level 85.70 (which reversed earlier waves 4 and (ii), as can be seen from the daily AUD/JPY chart below), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward price impulse from the start of June. AUD/JPY is expected to rise to next buy target at the next resistance level 88.00 (target price for the completion of wave (2)).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_jpy_reversed_from_support_area_3019

 

[riki143]

CAD/JPY RISING INSIDE MINOR B-WAVE
19:43 16.08.2017

CAD/JPY rising inside minor B-wave
Next buy target - 89.00
CAD/JPY continues rise inside the minor B-wave which started earlier from the support zone lying between the support level 85.60, 50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous upward impulse (3) from the start of June and the lower daily Bollinger Band. The active B-wave belongs to the intermediate ABC correction (4) from the end of July. CAD/JPY is expected to rise to next buy target at the next resistance level 89.00 (target price for the termination of the active wave B).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/cad_jpy_rising_inside_minor_b_wave_3020

 

[riki143]

SILVER (XAG/USD): LOOKING FORWARD TO RIDE A BULLISH WAVE
19:58 16.08.2017

Silver has been riding an overall bullish structure that it’s looking for a consolidation above the 200 SMA at H1 chart. According to our Fibonacci’s projections, the XAG/USD pair has made a rebound above a key demand zone between the 16.67 and 16.50 levels (50% - 65%) and it’s now pointing to test the 17.49 level, at which lies the -23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

To the downside, if Silver manages to break below 16.50, then it can plummet towards 16.35 (78.6%), which is the last hurdle before to invalidate the bullish bias. RSI indicator remains in the positive territory.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/silver_(xag_usd):_looking_forward_to_ride_a_bullish_wave_3023

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: BEARS FULFILLED THEIR MISSION
09:33 17.08.2017

Recommendation:

SELL 1.2940 SL 1.3005 TP 1.2730

SELL 1.3005 SL 1.3060 TP1 1.2850 TP2 1.2730

SELL 1.3055 SL 1.3110 TP1 1.2925 TP2 1.285 TP3 1.2730

On the daily chart, GBP/USD reached 88.6% target of Shark pattern and reached the lower border of the uptrend channel. This increases the risks of correction towards 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% of the wave CD within the transformation of the “Shark” into 5-0.

On H1, GBP/USD formed a “Widening wedge” and a “Shark”. Correction movement towards 1.2940, 1.3005 and 1.3055 may be used for selling.

More;
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_bears_fulfilled_their_mission_3031

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF: BEARS ARE WINNING
09:47 17.08.2017

Recommendation:

SELL 0.9585 SL 0.9630 TP1 0.9510 TP2 0.9475

On the daily chart, USD/CHF failed to overcome resistance at 0.9765. This points at buyer’s weakness. If bears manage to settle above 0.9650 and trigger Gartley pattern, risks of decline towards the lower border of the downtrend channel will increase.

On H1, USD/CHF keeps forming “Widening wedge”. A break of support at 0.9585 will end the process (point 5) will strengthen the odds of a pullback to 78.6% and 88.6% of the last bullish wave.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_chf:_bears_are_winning_3032

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BEARS GOING TO TEST CLOSEST SUPPORT
10:36 17.08.2017

There's a "Double Bottom", so the price reached the nearest resistance at 1.1801. In this case, bears are likely going to test the closest support at 1.1727 - 1.1712 in the short term. If we have a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to achieve the next resistance at 1.1801 - 1.1846.

Bulls found resistance at 1.1784, so the price is consolidating. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the 34 Moving Average soon. If a pullback from this line happens little later on, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards another resistance at 1.1801 - 1.1823.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_bears_going_to_test_closest_support_3035

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "TRIPLE BOTTOM" PATTERN
10:39 17.08.2017

We've got a "Triple Bottom" pattern, which has been confirmed. It's likely that bears are going to achieve the closest support at 1.2853 in the short term. However, if a pullback from this level happens, bulls will have a green light to reach the nearest resistance at 1.2832 - 1.2951.

The price is consolidating near the 34 Moving Average. Also, the price faced resistance at 1.2911, so we should keep an eye on the closest support at 1.2853. If we have a pullback from this level, there'll be an opportunity to have a bullish price movement towards the next resistance at 1.2926 - 1.2932

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_"triple_bottom"_pattern_3036

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BEARISH "TWEEZERS"
14:02 17.08.2017

There's a local bearish "Tweezers" pattern, which has been confirmed. So, bears are likely going to test the 89 Moving Average. If any bullish pattern arrives little later on, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement.

The price has reached the previously tested support level, but we still don't have any reversal pattern. So, the market is likely going to test the next support in the coming hours.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_bearish_"tweezers"_3047

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: CONFIRMED BULLISH "HARAMI"
14:08 17.08.2017

We've got a "Tweezers" and a "Hanging Man", which both have been formed on the 89 Moving Average. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the lower side of the nearest "Window" soon.

There's a bullish "Harami", which has been confirmed, so the price is likely going to test the upper "Window". If a pullback from this level happens afterwards, bears will have a green light to deliver another decline.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_confirmed_bullish_"harami"_3048

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "V-BOTTOM" PATTERN[/NB]
09:56 18.08.2017

There's a "V-Bottom" pattern, so the price reached the 55 Moving Average. In this case, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.1801 - 1.1846. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards the closest support at 1.1638 - 1.1649.

The 34 Moving Average has acted as resistance, so the price is consolidating. It's likely that bears are going to achieve the nearest support at 1.1712 - 1.1703. However, if we have a pullback from these levels, bulls will have a green light to reach another resistance at 1.1757 - 1.1784.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_"v_bottom"_pattern_3062

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY IS LOOKING FOR DIRECTION
10:30 18.08.2017

Recommendation:

BUY 110.95 SL 110.40 TP 112.50

On the daily chart, bears managed to lead the pair outside of the triangle. This increases the possibility of pattern AB=CD with the target at 161.8% in case of a successful break below support at 108. On the contrary, the pair’s return inside the triangle will show sellers’ weakness.

On H1, USD/JPY bulls managed to seize the initiative and return the quotes to the upper border of the downtrend channel. Further activation of the inverted “Head and Shoulders” and “Shark” will strengthen the risks of a bearish trend.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy_is_looking_for_direction__3066

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: BEARISH "FLAG" PATTERN
10:00 18.08.2017

We've got a bearish "Flag" pattern, so the market is likely going to reach the next support at 1.2830 - 1.2811 in the short term. At the same time, bulls will probably try to achieve the nearest resistance at 1.2892 - 1.2911 afterwards

The price is consolidating near the 34 Moving Average. Also, there's a possible "Flag", so the price is likely going to test the upper side of this pattern. If a pullback from the closest resistance at 1.2911 - 1.2926 happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards another support at 1.2930 - 1.2811.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_bearish_"flag"_pattern_3065

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BEARS ARE READY FOR A NEW ATTACK
10:37 18.08.2017

Recommendation:

SELL 128 SL 128.55 TP1 126.90 TP2 125.80

On the daily chart, bears attempted for the second time to test important support at 128. It failed, but sellers don’t give up and hope to develop correction and reach 88.6% target of “Shark” pattern.

On H1, EUR/JPY formed “Head and Shoulders” pattern. A break of the neckline near 128.00 support with simultaneous activation of the AB=CD pattern will create an opportunity for a pullback to the uptrend towards 125.60-125.80.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_bears_are_ready_for_a_new_attack_3067

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: UNDER KIJUN’S RESISTANCE
13:17 18.08.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2840; resistance – 1.2900.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 1.2900; SL — 1.2920; TP1 — 1.2840; TP2 — 1.2810.
Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; the prices are under the resistance of Kijun-sen and may continue falling down.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_under_kijun’s_resistance_3071

 

[riki143]

USD: OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST 21-25
13:17 18.08.2017

The US dollar index (DXY) got support at 92.80 last week and went up to consolidate between 93.20 and 94.00.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting showed that most central bank officials supported a move towards unwinding the Fed's massive balance sheet in September. The $4.5 trillion balance sheet was built up after the financial crisis to keep borrowing costs low. In addition, markets closely follow the Fed’s discussion about inflation, which has recently shown signs of weakness. Opinions within the Fed slightly differ on this point: some members think that the softness in prices is temporary, while others worry that it will take longer than expected for inflation to rise to 2% target. As a result, the odds are that the Fed will delay a rate hike until inflation picks up. This is not very inspiring for the USD.

In the upcoming days, pay attention to new home sales and crude oil inventories on Wednesday, existing home sales on Thursday and core durable goods orders on Friday. In addition, at the end of the week, world's major central bankers will gather at the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium. The Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak on the topic of financial stability at 17:00 MT time on Friday.

Note that political turmoil in Trump’s administration and the market’s risk aversion will likely reduce the impact of any positive statistics from America and keep the US currency under pressure.

Despite the recent recovery, DXY is still not far from its 13-month lows hit at the beginning of August. It looks like the greenback is correcting up within the general downtrend. A decline below 93.20 will open the way down to 93.00 and 92.50 (200-week MA). Resistance is at 94.00 ahead of 94.90 (50-day MA).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd:_outlook_for_august_21_25_3070

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: DOLLAR RETURNED TO NEGATIVE AREA
13:18 18.08.2017

Technical levels: support – 109.00; resistance – 109.50.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 109.50; SL — 109.70; TP1 — 109.00; TP2 — 108.60.
Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, the falling lines; the bears continue their offensive.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_dollar_returned_to_negative_area_3072

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST 21-25
13:25 18.08.2017

In line with expectations, EUR/USD moved horizontally between 1.1845 and 1.1685 during the past week. European stocks were affected by terrorist attack n Barcelona.

The minutes of the ECB July meeting revealed the central bank’s concern over the euro’s strength. It also seems that officials are still uncertain how to signal changes in their policy settings as the economic outlook improves and the need for broad-based bond purchases diminishes.

The ECB President Mario Draghi will address a conference in Germany on Aug. 23, and two days later attends the US Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium. According to a Reuters report, Draghi won’t deliver a new policy message in Jackson Hole. At the same time, taking into account low inflation in the euro area and other developed economies, any comments on this point will have an impact on the market.

Other events in the region’s economic calendar include German ZEW economic sentiment index on Tuesday, euro zone’s flash manufacturing & services PMIs on Wednesday and German Ifo business climate on Friday.

The pair’s now in a correction within the overall uptrend. The trend channel will stay intact as long as the pair’s above 1.1625. It looks like the euro will visit this level. If it is breached, the pair will be vulnerable for a decline to 1.1540. A close below 200-week MA at 1.1770 won’t be a very encouraging sign. Return above 1.1790 is needed to open the way to the recent highs at 1.1845 and 1.1910, as well as the psychological level of 1.2000.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_outlook_for_august_21_25_3073

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "ENGULFING", "DOJI" AND "HARAMI"
13:31 18.08.2017

There are bullish patterns such an "Engulfing", a "Doji" and a "Harami", which all have been formed on the 55 Moving Average line. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance in the short term

The price has reached the Moving Averages, so it's likely to have any bearish pattern soon. In this case, we could have a local bearish correction, but bulls will probably try to deliver a new local high afterwards.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_"engulfing",_"doji"_and_"harami"_3074

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: BEARS GOING TO REACH LOWER "WINDOW"
13:34 18.08.2017

There isn't any reversal pattern so far, which means we should keep an eye on the lower "Window" as an intraday target. If a pullback from this level happens, we could have an upward correction towards the Moving Averages

We've got an "Inverted Hammer" and a "Tweezers" patterns, but both of them haven't been confirmed yet. So, there's an opportunity to have a local bullish correction and the following decline afterwards.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_bears_going_to_reach_lower_"window"_3075