Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "THORN" PATTERN
12:47 31.08.2017

The price is still consolidating near the Moving Averages. It seems like the pair is going to test the nearest support area at 1.2891 - 1.2877. However, if a pullback from these levels arrives later on, there'll be an option to have a bullish price movement towards the closest resistance at 1.2958 - 1.2989.

There's a "Thorn" pattern, so the price is consolidating. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the 89 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, bulls will have a green light to achieve another resistance at 1.2942 - 1.2958.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_"thorn"_pattern_3394

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BEARISH "ENGULFING"
14:07 31.08.2017

The last bearish "Harami" has been confirmed by a "Three Methods" pattern, so the price is declining. The next bearish target is the 55 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for an upward correction.

There's a bearish "Engulfing", which has been confirmed enough. So, the market is likely going to test the 89 Moving Average, which could act as support. If a pullback from this line happens, there'll be an opportunity to have another decline.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_bearish_"engulfing"_3398

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: BULLISH "THREE METHODS"
14:12 31.08.2017

Bulls faced the 144 Moving Average, so we've got a "Shooting Star", but this pattern hasn't been confirmed yet. In this case, the price is likely going to test the nearest resistance level in the short term. If any bearish pattern arrives later on, we could have a downward correction.

We've got a bullish "Three Methods", so the price is likely going to test the upper "Window". If a pullback from this level happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a bearish correction.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_bullish_"three_methods"_3399

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: EURO LIKED PIN BARS
10:04 01.09.2017

Recommendations:

BUY 1.1925 SL 1.187 TP1 1.1995 TP2 1.2085

BUY 1.1985 SL 1.193 TP1 1.2085 TP2 1.2185

On the daily chart, bears’ failure to rise above 1.1845 points at their weakness. This is confirmed by a pin bar with a long lower wick. Traders should favor buying on the break of resistance aiming for 161.8%, 200% and 224 targets of AB=CD pattern.

On H1, EUR/USD may form 1-2-3 pattern on correction. The break of resistances at 1.1925 and 1.1985 will be a signal for long positions.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_euro_liked_pin_bars_3410

 

[riki143]

EUR/GBP: BULLS COUNT ON A WEDGE
10:21 01.09.2017

Recommendations:

BUY 0.922 SL 0.9165 TP 0.932

BUY 0.9235 SL 0.918 TP 0.9335

On the daily chart, EUR/GBP is in sustainable uptrend within “Spike and reversal with acceleration”. As long as the pair doesn’t fall to 0.9068, bulls will retain total control of the pair.

On H1, EUR/GBP is forming a “widening wedge” pattern. Return of the pair to point 3 will end the process and allow to form longs. More aggressive traders can use the break of the upper border of the trend channel as a signal for opening long positions.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_gbp:_bulls_count_on_a_wedge_3411

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "V-BOTTOM" PATTERN
11:27 01.09.2017

Bears faced with support at 1.1875, so we've got a "V-Bottom" pattern, which pushed the price to the nearest resistance at 1.1909. So, the market is likely going to decline towards the next support at 1.1846. If a pullback from this level happens, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement in the direction of another resistance at 1.1975 - 1.2003.

The 34 Moving Average has acted as resistance, so there's a "V-Top" pattern. Therefore, the pair is likely going to decline towards the closest support at 1.1875 - 1.1863. However, if we have a pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to reach resistance at 1.1959.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_"v_bottom"_pattern_3415

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: PAIR GOING TO TEST NEAREST SUPPORT
11:30 01.09.2017

We've got a "V-Bottom" pattern, so the price reached the 89 Moving Average. In this case, we could have an upward price movement towards the nearest support area at 1.2891 - 1.2877. If a pullback from these levels arrives little later on, bulls are likely going to test another resistance at 1.2958 - 1.2989.

Bulls reached resistance at 1.2942, so there's a "Double Top" pattern. Therefore, the pair is likely going to achieve the nearest support at 1.2891 - 1.2877. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this area happens, we should keep an eye on the closest resistance at 1.2942 - 1.2958 as an intraday target.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_pair_going_to_test_nearest_support_3416

 

[riki143]

NFP: A HOT DAY FOR THE US DOLLAR
11:38 01.09.2017

It’s the first Friday of September that means that the United States will release labor market data for August at 15:30 MT time. This week has already been very volatile for EUR/USD and USD/JPY. Will the news release change anything?

The risks
Yes, there are no doubts that this release will have a big impact on the market as it’s the last one before the Federal Reserve’s September meeting.

ADP employment report, which is the same as NFP, except it’s prepared not by the authorities, but by a private entity, showed that 237K jobs were created in America last month compared to 185K expected. After this publication, many market players started thinking that NFP will come out strong as well. Remember though that ADP and NFP don’t always correlate.

History shows that August payrolls tend to disappoint the market. The reasons for such consistent pattern are not quite clear. It may have something to do with seasonal factors: American teachers quit jobs and are re-employed when the new school year starts. August is also a holiday season. Many people who do contract work don't take new assignments. There are also some tricky reasons to believe that wage growth (average hourly earnings) will be lower as well (this deals with the fact how the indicator is counted).

The Fed is closely watching the US economic figures as traders try to predict further actions of the US central bank. The devastating hurricane that ran over Texas diminishes the odds of the Fed’s rate hike this year (although the hurricane won’t affect this month’s NFP). A disappointment in labor data will make the US currency suffer a lot. At the same time, USD bulls will need a reading above the consensus forecast to continue the greenback’s recovery.

The forecasts
Here are the forecasts of some well-known banks.

The impact
>200K – very USD-positive
180K-200K – mildly positive for the USD
150K-180K – mildly negative for the USD
<150 – very USD-negative

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/_nfp:_a_hot_day_for_the_us_dollar_3417

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: PULLBACK FROM 1/8 MM LEVEL
12:44 01.09.2017

We've got a pullback from 1/8 MM Level, so wave [a] has been ended. However, wave 4 is likely going to be continued. So, if a pullback from 2/8 MM Level happens afterwards, we could have another bearish impulse in wave [c] of 4.

There's a bearish impulse in wave [a]. Also, bulls delivered a small bullish impulse in wave (a), so wave is likely going to take the form of a zigzag. The main intraday target is 4/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for wave [c] of 4.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_pullback_from_1_8_mm_level_3419

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: CONFIRMED "DOJI"
14:31 01.09.2017

There's a bullish "Harami", which has been confirmed by the last "Three Methods". So, the market is likely going to rise towards the nearest resistance in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, we could have another decline.

We've got a confirmed "Doji" at the local low, so the pair is likely going to test the upper "Window" during the day. However, if we have a bearish pattern little later on, bears will probably try to test the Moving Averages once again.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_confirmed_"doji"_3421

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: BEARS GOING TO PUSH PRICE LOWER
14:33 01.09.2017

There's a "Shooting Star", which has been formed on the 144 Moving Average. Also, there's a local bullish "Harami", so the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance, which could be a departure point for a decline toward the lower "Window".

We've got bullish patterns such a "Tweezers" and a "High Wave", but both of them have a quite week confirmation. Therefore, if a pullback from the upper "Window" happens, bears are likely going to push the price lower.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_bears_going_to_push_price_lower_3422

 

[riki143]

USD: OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER 4-8
16:31 01.09.2017

The US dollar index (DXY) dipped to 91.55 before recovering to 93.30 area, but the descending trend line didn’t let the greenback to push higher and it reserved back to the downside.

The fundamental picture for the US currency looks rather grim. Geopolitical tensions increased as North Korea launched a missile that flew over Japan on Tuesday and Trump’s Administration ordered to close 3 Russian diplomatic facilities in the United States. On the domestic front, hurricane Harvey may be the most expensive natural disaster in US history. According to the weather forecaster AccuWeather, it will cost the economy about $190 billion. No big announcement on the US tax reform came from Donald Trump. Finally, US labor market figures for August brought a big disappointment. America created only 156K jobs vs. 180K expected. The unemployment rate increased to 4.4% and monthly wage growth slowed down to 0.1%.

Other data from the US turned out to be mixed. American economy performed better than expected in the second quarter, as preliminary GDP growth was revised from the initial estimate of 2.6% to 3.0%. However, inflation keeps hovering at low levels – this may pose an obstacle to the Fed’s rate hikes this year. Consumer spending rose slightly less than expected in July, but consumer confidence came out strong.

US banks will be closed on Monday as the nation will celebrate Labor Day. All in all, the week will be lighter on the data front. Pay attention to ISM services PMI on Wednesday and unemployment claims and crude oil inventories on Thursday.

American currency remains within a downtrend. Declines below 92.00 (50-month MA) and 2016 low at 91.88 will bring DXY to 2015 low at 90.70. The greenback needs to return above 93.00 to reverse this trend and get a chance to rise to 94.00.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd:_outlook_for_september_4_8_3423

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER 4-8
17:18 01.09.2017

The single currency had an extremely volatile week. EUR/USD made a spike to 1.2070, then fell to 1.1820 and then made another spike to the levels close to 1.2000 before returning below 1.1900.

The euro made bullish swings on good data from the euro area and the US dollar’s weakness. European inflation gathered pace in August. CPI increased by 1.5% exceeding analysts’ forecasts. At the same time, the acceleration was mainly because of higher oils prices as core CPI, which excludes energy and food prices, maintained the same pace.

Disappointing US labor data on Friday pushed the euro higher, but the euro bulls were stopped by a report from Bloomberg, citing unnamed euro zone officials, that the ECB may not be ready to finalize their decision on next year’s QE program until December.

Traders are looking forward to the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday, September 7. Only a few analysts expect the ECB to announce a timeline for its withdrawal in bond purchase plans. At his speech in Jackson Hole in August, the ECB President Mario Draghi said that “a significant degree of monetary accommodation” was still warranted. Instead, the market’s focus will be on the regulator’s comments on the euro’s strength. Minutes of the regulator’s most recent meeting showed some officials were concerned about this. Yet, some of the ECB members have made hawkish comments recently.

EUR/USD is still within the general uptrend. A weekly close below 1.1900 may set the ground for further correction to the downside. The 200-week MA at 1.1750 should act as support ahead of 1.1700. The level of 1.2000 represents a key psychological level. The pair’s inability to close above it on Tuesday together with daily MACD divergence points at the necessity to visit support levels. In addition, pay attention to the fact that EUR/USD ran into the Ichimoku Cloud and 50-period MA at the monthly chart – these things create resistance.

The US economic calendar is going to be light. Take into account our technical analysis considerations and prepare for volatility during the ECB meeting & press conference.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_outlook_for_september_4_8_3425

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER 4-8
17:38 01.09.2017

In line with our expectations, GBP/USD tried to recover but remained limited by the key psychological level of 1.3000 on the upside. The pair’s recovery was caused primarily by the weakness of the US dollar and not by the strength of British pound.

The sterling remains under the negative impact of uncertainty over Britain’s exit from the European Union. The third round of Brexit negotiations started on Monday, but the EU’s chief negotiator said that the progress of the talks was slow.

One of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee members Saunders, who has recently voted for a rate hike, warned that unless the regulator didn’t start raising rates soon, it will have to increase rates at a faster pace in future potentially hurting economic growth. However, the prevailing opinion is still that the BoE will keep rates low until the situation with Brexit becomes clearer.

The UK manufacturing PMI hit a 4-month high in August. In the coming days, the nation will release construction and services PMIs. On addition, the BoE Governor Mark Carney will speak at the House of Commons in line with Inflation Report hearings on Tuesday. His comments may be market movers. At the end of the week, on Friday, Britain will release manufacturing production figures.

Technically GBP/USD rebounded from support line connecting April, June and September lows. This line is currently providing support around 1.2800. On H4 we see something like an inverted Head & Shoulders. A break above 1.3000 will allow the pound to strengthen to 1.3100 and 1.3160. Below 1.2800 the pound will get vulnerable for a decline to 1.2750 and 1.2660 (200-day MA).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_outlook_for_september_4_8_3426

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER 4-8
18:09 01.09.2017

Japanese yen has been influenced by tensions between the US and North Korea. It gained as a safe haven at the beginning of the week after North Korea fired a missile over Japanese territory on Tuesday. USD/JPY fell to 108.25 before recovering to the 110.50 area.

According to Japan’s defense minister, more missiles will come. North Korea watchers suspect the regime may conduct another nuclear test over the next 10 days. Although market reactions to North Korea’s actions have become more muted, if the Asian nation continues to escalate the situation, the yen will strengthen more versus the US dollar.

Japanese preliminary industrial production declined by 0.8%, housing starts fell by 2.3%, household spending reduced by 0.2%. In the coming days, Japan will release average cash earnings, leading indicators, final GDP for the second quarter and current account. US economic calendar will be lighter than in the previous week. The greenback may take a break, although American economic fundamentals aren’t encouraging.

USD/JPY managed to close in August above 50-month MA at 109.70. The pair is supported at 108.10 (April low). A decline below this level will set the stage for a big swing down. The fact that the US dollar managed to rise despite the disappointing labor market data on Friday suggests the possibility of some near-term recovery, although there are many resistance levels ahead at 111.00, 111.40 (200-week MA) and 112.40 (200-day MA).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_outlook_for_september_4_8_3427

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER 4-8
18:32 01.09.2017

Canadian dollar keeps making impressive gains versus its US counterpart. USD/CAD made an attempt to recover, but was severely rejected down from 1.2660 and fell to the lowest levels in more than 2 years.

The pair was hit both by the US problems and Canada’s bright economic figures. The CAD strengthened even as oil prices slipped in the wake of Hurricane Harvey, which has paralyzed a quarter of the US refining industry. A report released on Thursday showed that Canadian GDP grew at 4.5% annual pace in the second quarter, at the fastest pace since 2011. In addition, Mexican Economy Minister said on Thursday that Mexico and Canada would remain in the North American Free Trade Agreement even if the US administration abandoned the accord.

Traders are now almost sure that the Bank of Canada will raise its benchmark interest rate this year. Some players are even expecting a rate hike as soon as at the upcoming meeting on Wednesday, September 6. Such possibility is estimated at 30%. The likelihood of a rate hike in 2017, in general, is estimated at 85%.

Canadians will celebrate the Labor Day on Monday, and banks both in Canada and the US will be closed. Other days of the week will be packed with important events for CAD. Economic data releases include trade balance, building permits, Ivey PMI and employment figures.

USD/CAD remains in a downtrend. This trend will likely continue. A weekly close below 200-week MA at 1.2430 will be a bearish sign. Next support levels are at 1.2300 and 1.2200. MACD divergence on the daily chart may allow some correction to the upside. Resistance is at 1.2430 and 1.2550.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_cad:_outlook_for_september_4_8_3428

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "THORN" PATTERN
10:07 04.09.2017

The main trend is still bullish, but the price faced resistance at 1.1959, so we've got a "Thorn" pattern, which pushed the market to the 34 Moving Average. In this case, we should keep an eye on the nearest support area at 1.1827 - 1.1801 as an intraday target. If a pullback from these levels happens, we could have an upward price movement towards the closest resistance at 1.1909 - 1.1959.

Bears faced support at 1.1847, so the price is consolidating. However, the pair is likely going to test the next support at 1.1827 - 1.1822. If so, we could have a new local low soon. Meanwhile, there's an opportunity to have a bullish price movement towards the nearest resistance at 1.1892 - 1.1909 afterwards.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_"thorn"_pattern_3435

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: BULLS GOING TO BREAK THE LAST HIGH
10:10 04.09.2017

Bulls found resistance at 1.2985, so we've got a "V-Top" pattern, which has been confirmed. If the 89 Moving Average acts as support, the price is likely going to test another resistance at 1.2989. If a pullback from this level happens, bears will probably try to test the nearest support at 1.2932 - 1.2891.

There's a "V-Top" pattern, which pushed the price to the closest support at 1.2936. Nevertheless, bulls are likely going to break the last high during the day. If the market doesn't fixate above 1.2989 - 1.2994, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline in the direction of the next support at 1.2932 - 1.2916.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_bulls_going_to_break_the_last_high_3436

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: MARKET GOING TO TEST 55 MA AGAIN
10:27 04.09.2017

The 34 & 55 Moving Averages have acted as support, so we've got bullish patterns such a "Harami" and an "Inverted Hammer". However, confirmation of these patterns is quite weak, so the market is likely going to test the 55 MA once again.

The price is consolidating near the last "Window". Also, there are a "Harami" and a "High Wave" patterns. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the nearest resistance, which could be a departure point for an intraday decline.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_market_going_to_test_55_ma_again_3438

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: NEW "WINDOW"
10:29 04.09.2017

There's a new "Window", but we still don't have any reversal pattern. So, the price is likely going to continue falling down towards the lower "Window". If any bullish pattern arrives later on, there'll be an opportunity to have a bullish price movement.

The last pullbacks from the upper "Window" led to form a new local low. It's likely that the market is going to test the nearest support, which could be a departure point for an upward correction.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_new_"window"_3439