Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

USD/JPY Daily Analytics
11:19 25.01.2018

There's still no any reversal pattern so far, which means the price is likely going to continue declining towards the lower "Window". If any bullish pattern forms little later on, there'll be a moment to have an upward correction

We've got a bearish "Engulfing", but this pattern hasn't been confirmed yet. So, there's an opportunity to have a local bearish correction in the coming hours. Nevertheless, bears are likely going to test the next support area afterwards.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

 

[riki143]

WHY THE DOLLAR FELL SO LOW?
11:29 25.01.2018
We are seeing the fall of the US dollar since the end of December 2017, but US Treasury secretaries preferred to say little about it until this Wednesday.

The US made the biggest fall since December 2014 when the Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin claimed on Wednesday that “a weaker dollar is good for us as it relates to trade”. The Secretary made his comment in Davos, Switzerland during the World Economic Forum, where a lot of people are waiting for the Donald Trump’s address

What did he really say? Mnuchin said that a cheaper dollar increases export demand. And he is right. Mnuchin claimed that the US wants fair economic competition and reciprocal trade. Tax cuts make the US more attractive for investments. He believes that where the dollar is in short-term reflects a very liquid market, but the long-term level will support the strength of the economy.

However, despite positive comments about the US policy, the market reacted to the confirmation of dollar weakness and the dollar fell losing 0.8% against the Euro.

But we cannot say that Mnuchin’s words were crucial for the USD. We should not forget that overseas economic growth and shifting perceptions of monetary policy have been causing the dollar weakness as well. So the fall was expected but maybe not at such rate.

Summing up the Secretary’s statement, we can suppose that the US will not act to strengthen the dollar now. However, it is important to remember that depreciation adds pressure on inflation. So the Fed will have to take it under control. But if inflation rises, the Fed will have to tighten its monetary policy and it will change the US dollar rate.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD Daily Analytics
06:07 26.01.2018
Technical levels: support – 1.2370; resistance – 1.2460, 1.2530.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.2420/30; SL — 1.2400; TP1 — 1.2460; TP2 — 1.2530
Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with rising Tenkan-sen; the prices are reached new highs and corrected to local support of Kijun-sen.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD Daily Analytics
06:09 26.01.2018
Technical levels: support – 1.4100, 1.4140; resistance – 1.4300.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.4140; SL — 1.4120; TP1 — 1.4270; TP2 — 1.4300.
Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with rising Tenkan-sen; a market returned to the support of Kijun-sen and may continue an uptrend.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD Daily Analytics
06:58 26.01.2018
Recommendation:

SELL 1.2360

SL 1.2415

TP1 1.2305 TP2 1.2200

On the daily chart, EUR/USD is forming “Spike and reversal with acceleration” pattern. To change the trend to the downward the euro should return to 1.19. That is unlikely. On the other hand, a pin bar near the lower border of the current uptrend increases the risks of a pullback.

On H1, EUR/USD formed a reversal “Widening wedge”. Aggressive selling will become a priority if the euro returns to 23.6% of the wave 4-5. Conservative selling may start when the euro reaches point 5.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

 

[riki143]

EUR/GBP Daily Analytics
07:40 26.01.2018
Recommendation:

SELL 0.8700

SL 0.8755

TP1 0.8600 TP2 0.8450

On the daily chart, EUR/GBP tested the lower border of the 0.8740-0.9015 for the fourth time since September. The inability of bears to continue what they have begun will point at their weakness. On the other hand, if the pair renews January low, the odds of decline to 2% target of AB=CD will increase.

On H1, EUR/GBP managed to lead the pair outside of the descending trade channel. To return the initiative, bears need to make the euro go below support at 0.8740.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD Daily Analytics
11:44 26.01.2018

The main trend is still bullish, so we should keep an eye on the next resistance at 1.2500 - 1.2537 as an intraday target. If a pullback from this area happens little later on, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards the nearest support at 1.2456 - 1.2358.

There's a possible "V-Top", so the pair is likely going to test the closest support at 1.2398. This level could be a departure point for another upward price movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.2500 - 1.2537.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD Daily Analytics
11:47 26.01.2018

Bulls faced with resistance at 1.4331, so there's a "Double Top" pattern. Nevertheless, the market is likely going to achieve the next resistance at 1.4386 - 1.4433 soon. If a pullback from this area happens, we could have a bearish correction.

The 55 Moving Average has acted as support, so the price is consolidating. In this case, we should keep an eye on the closest support at 1.4129. Meanwhile, if we have a pullback from this level, there'll be an opportunity to have a bullish price movement towards the next resistance at 1.4327 - 1.4344.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD Daily Analytics
11:50 26.01.2018

There's a "Piercing Line" pattern, which has been confirmed. So, if the 21 Moving Average acts as support, there'll be an opportunity to have a new local high.

We've got a "Harami" and a "High Wave", but both patterns haven't been confirmed yet. Therefore, the 34 MA is likely going to act as support. If so, bulls will probably try to reach the next resistance area.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY Daily Analytics
11:53 26.01.2018

There's a bearish "Doji" pattern at the last local high. In this case, the price is likely going to test the lower "Window" once again.

The last "Doji" pattern has been confirmed, so the price is declining. It's likely to have a local bullish correction during the day. If a pullback from the 21 MA happens little later on, there'll be a moment to have another decline.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD Daily Analytics
06:04 29.01.2018
Technical levels: support – 1.2370; resistance – 1.2460, 1.2530.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.2420/30; SL — 1.2400; TP1 — 1.2460; TP2 — 1.2530
Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, with horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; the prices are returned into channel Tenkan-Kijun and supported by Kijun-sen.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD Daily Analytics
06:05 29.01.2018
Technical levels: support – 1.4130; resistance – 1.4210.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.4140; SL — 1.4120; TP1 — 1.4210; TP2 — 1.4270.
Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; a market returned into channel Tenakn-Kijun and may bounced from Kijun-sen to the positive area.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD Daily Analytics
07:14 29.01.2018
AUD/USD: Aussie made a halt

Recommendations:

BUY 0.812 SL 0.8065 TP 0.822

BUY 0.805 SL 0.795 TP1 0.815 TP2 0.822

SELL 0.8005 SL 0.806 TP 0.79

On the daily chart, AUD/USD “bulls” attempted to activate pattern AB=CD with a target at 127,2%, that failed. If Aussie comes back to the support level at $0,805, there will be risks of a pullback in the direction of $0,799 and $0,79.

On the hour chart, if AUD/USD falls below the support line in 0.8005, it will activate a pattern “Widening wedge”. On the other side, a hit of the support level at 0.8120 will be a sign the bullish trend’s resumption.

More:
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[riki143]

EUR/USD Daily Analytics
10:24 29.01.2018

The main trend is still bullish, but the price is consolidating between the levels 1.2569 - 1.2358. It's likely that the pair is going to test the next support at 1.2322 - 1.2272 in the coming hours. If a pullback from this area happens little later on, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.2456 - 1.2500.

There's a "V-Top" pattern, but the 34 Moving Average is acting as support, so the market is going to test the closest resistance at 1.3456. A pullback from this level could be a departure point for a decline towards the 55 MA.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD Daily Analytics
10:28 29.01.2018

The last "Double Top" pattern led to the current decline. The main intraday target is the 34 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens little later on, there'll be an opportunity to have another bullish pice movement.

The price is consolidating between the 34 & 55 Moving Averages. It's likely that the pair is going to test the nearest resistance at 1.4206, which could be a departure point for a decline in the direction of the next support at 1.4011.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp-usd-double-top-led-to-decline-6512

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD Daily Analytics
12:44 29.01.2018

There's a developing bearish correction, but the last bullish "Piercing Line" is still on the table. So, if the 34 Moving Average acts as support, there'll be a moment to have another upward price movement.

We've got a bullish "Hammer", so the market is likely going to test the closest resistance area. If any bearish pattern forms little later on, we could have another decline towards the Moving Averages.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur-usd-developing-bearish-correction-6513

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY Daily Analytics
12:46 29.01.2018

The pair has reached the lower "Window", but the price remains below the middle of the last huge black candle. In this case, the market is likely going to test the next "Window" soon.

There's a "Harami", which has been formed on the 21 Moving Average. Therefore, the pair is likely going to continue moving down in the short term.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd-jpy-pair-reached-the-lower-window-6514

 

[riki143]

XAU/USD Daily Analytics
07:57 30.01.2018
Recommendations:

BUY $1324 SL $1309 TP1 $1354 TP2 $1374 TP3 $1394

SELL $1302 SL $1317 TP1 $1267 TP2 $1240

On the daily chart, XAU/USD has reached the targets of “Three Indians” pattern. As long as gold is trading above support at $1302-1306 an ounce, bulls remain in control. It would be wise to use a pullback from these levels to buy with targets at 127.2% of the AB=CD pattern. On the other hand, the metal’s decline below the key support will increase the risks of the reversal “Widening wedge”.

On H1, XAU/USD formed a “Head and Shoulders” pattern.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD Daily Analytics
08:09 30.01.2018
Recommendation:

BUY 1.2390 SL 1.2335 TP 1.2490

SELL 1.2295 SL 1.235 TP1 1.2195 TP2 1.2095

On the daily chart, the exit of USD/CAD outside of the triangle increases the risks of the downtrend’s resumption. The pair triggered AB=CD pattern with target at 200%. Formation of the inside bars points at the uncertainty.

On H1, USD/CAD is consolidating in the 1.2295-1.2390 range. A break of its upper border may trigger the “Bat” pattern. On the other hand, decline below support at 1.2295 will make the pair vulnerable for a further slide.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

 

[riki143]

ITALIAN ELECTION: IS THE EURO UNDER RISK?
09:25 30.01.2018

Italian election is supposed to create volatility of the euro in the next month. The election is appointed on March 4, but talks about its destroying effect on the euro have already started.

The opponent of the government under the guidance of Paolo Gentiloni is a new-formed center-right coalition that consists of Mr. Berlusconi's party Forza Italia, Mr. Salvini’s party Lega Nord, and national-conservative political party Fratelli d'Italia.

berluskoni02.jpg

Nowadays, there is discordance in a coalition on a key issue of participation of Italy in the European Union, that will create volatility of the euro. A leader of the Italian party Lega Nord, Matteo Salvini, is ready to leave the European Union and the Eurozone unless Brussels changes the current treatment Italy receives. He wants fewer constraints from the European Union. At the same time, other allies do not consider the exit from the EU.

The European issue is not the most important in the Italian election. The percent of Salvini’s party in the coalition even if the coalition wins, is not so big, it means that he will not be able to find support in a parliament and bring Italy to the exit. However, talks about the exit will affect the euro during the pre-election period.

pensioni-notizie-precoci-salvini.jpg

Another important issue is the strength of the government. Nowadays, the Italian economy is the third-biggest economy of the Eurozone after Germany and France. It means that any changes in its policy affect not only the country itself but the Eurozone as well. The important issue is that the ECB is planning to reduce its stimulus. It can cause a burst of market volatility, that will lead to more expansive borrowing for Italian government from capital markets. Such risks can spread to other countries included in the Eurozone. If the government is weak and does not support the European Union, it will create problems for the EU and the euro as well. The EU needs the strong government that will be able to enact new laws and support its policy.

To sum up, we can say that the possibility of the Italian exit from the European Union and the Eurozone is low. However, the Italian election will affect the euro and Forex market in general. Talks about the Italian exit and dissent in the coalition will create the euro volatility, so Forex traders should be more careful during the pre-election period.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/italian-election-is-the-euro-under-risk-6535