Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/USD: forecast for December 14-20

By Elizabeth Belugina

British pound had another volatile week. Cable fell as British manufacturing production declined more than expected. Then GBP/USD formed a higher low in the 1.4955 area and then recovered to 1.5200.

The Bank of England left policy unchanged underlining that inflation in the UK is low because of the fall in oil prices. 8 policymakers voted to keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5%. According to its forecast, headline inflation will remain below 1.0% during the first half of 2016. Oil prices decline is negative for the pound.

Next week pay attention to British consumer inflation figures on Tuesday, labor market figures on Wednesday and retail sales on Thursday.

Technically support in 1.5000/1.4950 area once again proved to be strong: the price quickly bounced from these levels. There’s some space for increase to 1.5300 area, but to gain beyond that pound needs brighter economic figures and recovery in oil. We expect high volatility to persist and the bears to keep trying to pull British pound lower.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7340

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD: forecast for December 14-20

By Elizabeth Belugina

US dollar was rather weak during the past week. Traders and speculators have been obviously adjusting their positions ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting and the year-end.

The greenback did strengthen though versus commodity currencies, especially Canadian dollar, as oil prices renewed multiyear minimums still affected by OPEC decision not to cut production. Still, other central banks – the Swiss National Bank and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand – didn’t ease policy and it helped their currencies to hold ground versus the US dollar. As a result, the US dollar index, which was rejected down from the key 100.00 area, slid to the levels just above 97.00.

The long-awaited Fed’s meeting will finally take place next week on Wednesday. The market is now quite sure that the US central bank will deliver a rate hike. According to the Fed fund futures, the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising rates this month accounts for 85%.

It seems likely that the Fed’s meeting won’t give the US dollar much strength as the process of monetary tightening in the US will likely be slow and gradual. American regulator will try to make policy tightening as painless for the economy as possible. At the same time, the risks of a squeeze down in USD on a dovish Fed have reduced as well: firstly, the positioning is less long on USD, and, secondly, the Fed probably won’t express that big concerns about how expensive the greenback is. All in all, there are chances that the market’s reaction to the Fed’s rate decision will be rather calm. Other important economic releases can be seen in our economic calendar.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7343

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: forecast for December 14-20

By Elizabeth Belugina

EUR/USD tested higher levels in the past week, though remained below important resistance marks. The market’s attention will be focused on the upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve. Although we don’t expect so see big bullish drivers for the American currency, we can’t forget that a rate hike, even small, will once again increase divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and the ECB. This divergence is in favor of the US dollar.

The past week gave no important information about the euro zone’s economy. Next week the most important events in the European economic calendar will be flash manufacturing and services PMIs on Wednesday, because it’s the most recent and fresh data. Also watch German releases: ZEW economic sentiment on Tuesday and Ifo business climate on Friday.

Remember that high euro will be very unwelcome by the European Central Bank: the policymakers will have to intervene, at least verbally, if the advance continues. There are still many resistance levels on the upside: daily MAs, bottom of the daily Ichimoku Cloud at 1.1060, 61.8% Fibo of the October-November decline at 1.1115 and 1.1215/40 (weekly Ichimoku Cloud bottom). Supportisat 1.0880, 1.0800 and 1.0735.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7342

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: forecast for December 14-20

By Elizabeth Belugina

USD/JPY broke below the bottom of its monthly range in the 122.20 area. Lower commodity prices increased demand for the yen as a safe haven making the pair decline. In addition, there were some positive surprises in Japan’s economic statistics. The best news was that Japanese GDP growth for Q3 was revised up from -0.2% to +0.3%. As a result, the nation is no longer in technical recession.

Pay attention to Japanese Tankan manufacturing & services indexes on Monday. On Friday there will be the Bank of Japan’s meeting and press conference. The central bank is expected to keep monetary policy unchanged, and that should support the yen. The upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday will surely also influence the pair: the impact of the rate hike should be positive in the short term, though we don’t think that it will give dollar much strength.

Support is at 121.45 (top of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud). Failure here will bring the pair down to 120.70, 120.20 opening the way down to 119.00. Resistanceisat 123.60.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7341

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for December 15

By Elizabeth Belugina

The market is waiting for the Fed’s meeting on Wednesday. Falling oil is the main newsmaker.

EUR/USD: The pair remained last week below the resistance at 1.1030 (200-day MA). Below 1.0950 the euro will slide to 1.0915 and 1.0880. Rise above 1.1030 will provoke another round of short covering and open the way to 1.1115 (61.8% Fibo of decline from October high). Watch German ZEW economic sentiment at 10:00 GMT (forecast is positive).

GBP/USD: The pair is forming bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart, so the pound is vulnerable for a decline to 1.5030/00. There’s some support at 1.5107/00 (October low). Pound was sold on some dovish comments from the Bank of England and weak oil. Britain will release a block of inflation data at 09:30 GMT. Resistance is at 1.5200/30 and 1.5270 (daily Ichimoku Cloud).

USD/JPY: The pair found support in the 120.60 area. We expect an increase from here, but think that the pair will meet new selling pressure on recoveries to 121.05 and 121.50/60. Cautious risk sentiment and good data from Japan created demand for the yen. Below 120.60 support is at 120.22/00.

AUD/USD: The pair managed to return above the 100-day MA at 0.7188. The 55-day MA is about to cross this line to the upside that will be a positive sign. However, a lower high formed last week mean that selling pressure will persist. The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting will be released at 00:30 GMT. Resistance is still at 0.7250 and 0.7280. Falling commodity prices won’t allow Aussie to recover much from here, so the potential trade involves selling at resistance.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7361

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/NZD: sell target - 2.2000
15 December 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• GBP/NZD broke support level 2.2600
• Next sell target - 2.2000

GBP/NZD continues to fall after the recent breakout of the support level 2.2600 (which earlier reversed previous waves 3 and (A) in October, as you can see below). The breakout of the support level 2.2600 is likely to accelerate the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the sharp intermediate (C)-wave – which, in turn, belongs to the primary ABC correction ② from the end of August.

GBP/NZD is likely to fall further in the active waves 3, (C) and ② toward the next sell target at the support level 2.2000. Sell stop-loss can be placed at half the daily ATR (Average True Range) above the resistance level 2.2600.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7368

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
AUD/NZD: Likely to fall to 1.0500
15 December 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• AUD/NZD falling inside impulse waves (3) and ③
• Likely to fall to 1.0500

AUD/NZD has been falling sharply in the last 2 weeks inside the active primary impulse wave ③. This impulse wave started in November – when the previous primary ABC correction ② was stopped by the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.1100, the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave ① from August.

AUD/NZD is likely to continue to fall in the active impulse waves (3) and ③ toward the next sell target at the pivotal support level 1.0500 (which stopped the previous impulse wave ① in October).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7369

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for December 16

By Elizabeth Belugina

The main event on Wednesday will be the Federal Reserve’s meeting at 19:00 GMT. The futures market is pricing in about 80% chance of a rate hike. Although US dollar’s net long positions declined in the recent weeks, the total value is still very high. US central bank will likely do its best to make a rate hike as painless for the American economy as possible. As a result, the risk of “buy the rumor, sell the fact scenario” is rather high. Long USD positions into the Fed are risky on this background. On the other hand, traders are preparing for a dovish statement. US dollar index corrected down from 100.00 in the past 2 weeks, and negative pressure on the greenback should be reduced by this fact.

The main thing is the forecasts of the FOMC members for further dynamics of the interest rates. If these forecasts presume more than 2 rate hikes in 2016, it will be positive for USD. If the Fed is more hawkish than the market is expecting, USD will strengthen, especially versus the Japanese yen, demand for which will suffer because of the higher yields in the US, and Australian dollar, which has fallen behind the decline in iron ore. If the Fed is not hawkish enough, USD will decline, especially versus the euro, British pound and Canadian dollar.

EUR/USD tested higher levels, but the bulls were stopped by the 100-day MA (1.1060). German ZEW economic sentiment rose coming above expectations. Watch European PMIs at 08:00-09:00 GMT. Support is at 1.0950, 1.0915/00, 1.0880 and 1.0800. Above 1.1060 we watch 1.1115.

USD/JPY testing levels above 121.35. A fix here will open the way up to 121.85/122.Support is at 120.60 and 120.00.

GBP/USD rose after US CPI, but is still limited by resistances at 1.5200/40/80. Britain will release labor market data at 09:30 GMT. Pay special attention to average earnings index as it is linked to inflation and inflation, in turn, largely determines the Bank of England’s policy. The forecast is negative. Support is at 1.5100, 1.5050 and 1.4950.

AUD/USD met resistance at 0.7280 and declined. Support at 0.7180/60 is in focus ahead of 0.7090 and 0.7000.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7372

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/CHF: buy target - 1.0000
16 December 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• USD/CHF reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to 1.0000

USD/CHF recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 0.9800 (former strong resistance from September), lower daily Bollinger Band and the Fibonacci cluster made out of the 61.8% Fibonacci Correction of the previous impulse (iii) from October and the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the longer-term upward impulse from August. The upward reversal from this support area created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer.

USD/CHF is likely to rise further in the active impulse waves 3 and (3) toward the next buy target at the parity. Buy stop-loss can be placed below the support level 0.9800.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7381

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: sell targets - 1.0700 and 1.0800
17 December 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• EUR/USD falling inside minor B-wave
• Next sell targets - 1.0700 and 1.0800

EUR/USD continues to fall after the recent downward reversal from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.100, the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave from the end of August. The downward reversal from this resistance zone completed the previous B-wave of the active intermediate ABC correction (4) from the start of December.

EUR/USD is likely to fall further in the active minor B-wave toward the next sell target at the support level 1.0800 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward 1.0700.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7389

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/CAD: buy target - 1.4000
17 December 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• USD/CAD reached buy targets levels 1.3600 and 1.3800
• Next buy target - 1.4000

USD/CAD has been rising steadily in the last few trading sessions– reaching the resistance levels 1.3600 and 1.3800, both of which were set in our previous forecast as the buy targets for this currency pair. The breakout of the resistance level 1.3800 is likely to accelerate the active impulse 5 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the end of November.

USD/CAD is likely to rise further toward the next buy target at the round resistance level 1.4000 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (3) and the measured price forecast for the earlier breakout of the daily Triangle from September).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7390

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for December 18

By Elizabeth Belugina

US dollar strengthened on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve raised the Federal fund rate from 0-0.25% to 0.25-0.50% and sounded less dovish than the market has expected. Although Janet Yellen underlined that further rate increases will be gradual and data dependent, the Fed’s members were confident about the American economy and still expect to raise interest rates 4 times in 2016.

EUR/USD was rejected to the downside and further losses are likely. German Ifo business climate disappointed (108.7 vs. the forecast of 109.2). On Friday the euro area will release current account data at 09:00 GMT. Support is at 1.0800: the loss of this level can dramatically intensify selling – to 1.0730 and lower. Resistance is at 1.0980, but only a break above 1.1030/60 will allow further increases.

GBP/USD slid towards 1.4900 area. Even the big increase in retail sales due to November sales wasn’t of much help to the pound (+1.7% vs. +0.6% expected). The loss of 1.4900 will bring the pound to 1.4880 and 1.4850. Recoveries should find resistance in the 1.5000/50 zone.

USD/JPY is rapidly returning to the upside driven by higher US yields. The Bank of Japan is expected to leave policy unchanged. The central bank is still far from its inflation target, but other economic figures from Japan have so far been above expectations. The pair still has room for gains (resistance is at 123.60), though we don’t expect the Bank of Japan to give it positive drivers. Support is at 121.60.

New Zealand’s Q3 GDP growth increased in Q3 from 0.3% to 0.9%, but NZD/USDdeclined because of general USD strength and dovish comments of the nation’s finance minister. The bears may test the lower border of the short-term uptrend at 0.6665 with the next support being at 0.6612. Resistance is at 0.6780. ANZ business confidence index is due during the Asian session on Friday.

AUD/USD is vulnerable for a decline to 0.7100 after all the failures on the upside.USD/CAD is overbought, but 1.4000 target is in sight. Canadian inflation data at (13:30 GMT) are expected to come weak.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7393

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
CAD/JPY: sell target - 86.00
18 December 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• CAD/JPY falling inside impulse waves (iii) and 3
• Next sell target - 86.00

CAD/JPY continues to fall after the recent downward reversal from the resistance zone surrounding the strong resistance level 89.00 (former strong support from September and the buy target set previously for this currency pair). The price reversed down sharply from the resistance level 89.00 – accelerating the active minor impulse waves (iii) and 3 – which belong to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from October.

Having recently broken the support level 88.00 - CAD/JPY is likely to fall further toward the next sell target at the next support level 86.00. Strong resistance remains at 89.00.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7400

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
CHF/JPY: sell target - 121.00
18 December 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• CHF/JPY reversed from resistance zone
• Next sell target - 121.00

CHF/JPY recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 123.50, the upper daily Bollinger Band, 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave 1 from October and the former support trendline of the earlier daily up channel from September (acting as resistance now after it was broken).

The downward reversal from the aforementioned resistance zone completed the previous minor correction 2 of the 3rd intermediate impulse wave (3) from October. CHF/JPY is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the next support level 121.00.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7401

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
US dollar: forecast for December 21-27

US dollar showed moderate gains in the past week. The market regarded the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s meeting as more hawkish than expected: the Federal funds rate range was increased by 25 bps and the forecast of the 4 rate hikes in 2016 remained unchanged.

After the net bullish dollar positions declined in the first half of December and the currency corrected to the downside, it can now draw more support from the Fed’s decision. Looking forward we think that the greenback will be able to gain the medium term, though its gains will be gradual. Stock markets have responded to the Fed’s rate hike rather well, so the market’s risk sentiment should be supportive for American currency against the euro, Japanese yen and Swiss franc.

This week watch US final Q3 GDP on Tuesday and a big block of data on Wednesday, including core durable goods orders and new home sales. At the same time, year-end flows will reduce the importance of fundamental drivers and can hurt dollar. On the other hand, keep an eye on oil, which remains extremely volatile: there may be further declines, so USD can gain more versus commodity currencies.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7416

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: forecast for December 21-27

The dynamics of USD/JPY in the past week was determined by the actions of the central banks. Firstly the US Federal Reserve raised the interest rate making the pair go up. Then the Bank of Japan announced some changes to its monetary stimulus measures. However, the market regarded the step taken by the central bank as too small. In short, the BOJ will expand the types of assets it purchases, but the total volume of the program will remain the same. Dollar bulls got disappointed, and USD/JPY was once again rejected down from 123.50. Many failures at this resistance level make it a hard obstacle on the upside.

At the same time, the action taken by the Bank of Japan will remind traders that it is actually conducting a massive monetary easing. Together with higher rates in America, this is a huge supporting factor for USD/JPY. There will likely be further technical decline in USD after the failure on the upside, but support line from 2013 is in the 119.20/00 area. Resistance is at 122.00, 123.50 and 124.00.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7418

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: forecast for December 21-27

EUR/USD failed to settle above 1.1000 and declined to 1.0800. The bears have to break below this level to provoke decline to 1.0730 and 1.0650. Resistance is at 1.0980, 1.1055 and 1.1100. These obstacles look strong.

Economic data from the euro area in the past week were mixed: PMIs came generally in line with forecasts, but German IFO business climate index disappointed raising concerns about the region’s leading economy.

This week we won’t see a lot of news from Europe. Spanish parliamentary elections can create volatility on Monday: the markets will be watching the event as the European Union urging Spain to make new budget cuts in 2016. Then there will be some minor data from Germany on Monday and Tuesday, while the second half of the week will be devoted to Christmas holidays.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7417

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Credit Suisse: trade positions and signals
22 December 2015
Open positions:

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.0905, TAKE PROFIT 1.0640, STOP LOSS 1.0955 (Entered on December 21).

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT from 132.40, TAKE PROFIT 129.77, STOP LOSS 133.25 (Entered on December 21).

USD/CHF: Hold LONG from 0.9915, TAKE PROFIT 1.0030 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.9880 (Entered on December 18).

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG from 0.7250, TAKE PROFIT 0.7370, STOP LOSS 0.7198 (Entered on December 15).

NZD/USD: Hold LONG from 0.6700, TAKE PROFIT 0.6865, STOP LOSS 0.6680 (Entered on December 13).

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT from 0.7280, TAKE PROFIT 0.6940, STOP LOSS 0.7385 (Entered on December 7).

Trade signals:

USD/JPY: SELL at 122.00, TAKE PROFIT 120.45, STOP LOSS 122.67 (Entered on December 21).

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.3865, TAKE PROFIT 1.4320, STOP LOSS 1.3743 (Entered on December 21).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7429

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
AUD/CAD: buy target - 1.0200
22 December 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• AUD/CAD broke multiple resistance levels
• Next buy target - 1.0200

AUD/CADhas been rising sharply in the last few trading sessions inside the 5th minor impulse wave 5 of the (C)-wave of the primary ABC correction ② from September. The active (C)-wave earlier broke the daily up channel from September, the resistance level 0.9850 (previous buy target set for this currency pair) and more recently – the price broke through the parity.

The price today broke the next strong resistance level 1.0080 (which reversed the pair sharply in January, as you can see below). If the price closes today above 1.0080 - AUD/CAD can then rise to the next buy target 1.0200.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7433

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/AUD: sell target - 2.0400
22 December 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• GBP/AUD falling inside impulse waves 3 and (C)
• Next sell target - 2.0400

GBP/AUD has been falling strongly in the last few trading sessions inside the 3rd minor impulse wave 3 which started recently – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 2.1200 (breakout level of the previous up channel from May), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous downward price move from August.

GBP/AUD is likely to fall further in the active impulse waves 3 and (C) (which belong to the primary ABC wave ②) toward the next sell target at the support level 2.0400 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 1).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7434